tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post1166292187692439073..comments2023-06-27T04:30:25.783-04:00Comments on Burgeoning Wolverine Star: Shooting and statistical significanceChris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-84457040696753667832010-01-14T12:08:17.015-05:002010-01-14T12:08:17.015-05:00You'd also have to take into account the fact ...You'd also have to take into account the fact that the team is shooting a different percentage of their shots from three-point range this year than last (a significantly lower amount, to boot). Looking at the shooting percentage on a per-game basis basically reverts back to, "If we make more baskets, we win more games," which, of course. But what this analysis does is indicates that, while we may be underachieving, this deviation from last year's success is not unheralded or anything other than a reasonable fluctuation on last year's performance.<br /><br />Furthermore, the sample size you get from a single game is not large enough to determine any sort of statistical relevance and make any determination other than if Michigan makes two more three pointers in game X they win.Chris Gaerighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-54321737442182674912010-01-14T11:51:53.823-05:002010-01-14T11:51:53.823-05:00What if you translated the shooting percentage dif...What if you translated the shooting percentage difference between this year and last into a more intuitive points per game? If you take the number of 3PA this season (381) and multiply it by the differential percentage (33.4 - 29.7 = 3.7%) and then normalize it (15 games), the decline in shooting percentage is costing us nearly 3 points a game. In only 2 of our 7 losses (Bama by 2, BC by 4) would this extra 3 points have made a considerable difference. Still, I'd take 2 more wins...<br /><br />You could take this analysis to another level by looking at each game independently and calculating the number of points lost due to the worse shooting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com