tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post4900040871606518482..comments2022-03-19T06:01:17.502-04:00Comments on Burgeoning Wolverine Star: Should Hoke have gone for two?Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-47976752548119862222011-11-12T23:14:26.453-05:002011-11-12T23:14:26.453-05:00The problem, as other people have pointed out, is ...The problem, as other people have pointed out, is that if you make the XP on the first TD, you are then planning the rest of the game around the fact that you will make a 40% conversion later. If you get the 60% instead and fail, the game is over. There's probably no time left for an onside kick. Going for the conversion on the first TD gives you more options and is the correct call. The conversion is always going to be 40% successful - if you try it first and fail, you know that you are now in a two-possession game. As Brian noted somewhere on mgoblog, an 8-point game is not one possession. It's one possession 40% of the time and 2 possessions 60% of the time. Our brains see it as one possession because we know that it's possible to get 8 points in one possession, but that is misleading. For the same reason, your table should have four columns - there needs to be one for "make XP first, miss conversion second".Noah Tuckernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-2510455372477887072011-11-09T20:14:11.456-05:002011-11-09T20:14:11.456-05:00In order for this to be game theory you have to br...In order for this to be game theory you have to bring in the opponent, his reaction function and his beliefs about what your reaction function is. Absent such a discussion, this is dynamic optimization.<br /><br />The idea that more information early is better ignores the fact that you're also giving Iowa more information. (Factoring that into the analysis makes this game theory.) Now, you might not think that Iowa's information gain is worth a lot because irrespective of the outcome, they're running three dive plays and punting. Even so, it's something you have to account for. Also, I think the argument over whether to go for 2 early or late really hinges on your belief as to whether it's easier to convert early or late and whether by getting the game to one score makes Iowa's defense better or worse. For instance, you could argue that by getting the game down to one score, it freaks out Iowa, makes a second TD easier and turns their 2-point conversion defense into butter. You could argue the opposite. I don't know, it's an empirical question.m1jjb00noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-78014207637946893922011-11-08T15:30:40.887-05:002011-11-08T15:30:40.887-05:00Chris,
First off - good work here in general. I ...Chris,<br /><br />First off - good work here in general. I haven't been commenting but have been reading and enjoying the blog.<br /><br />As for this post - I think you expended a lot of words but are missing the point entirely. <br /><br />Point A: If you miss the 2 point conversion - at any time - you're kinda screwed. You're right that having a two-score deficit sucks (obviously), but it sucks a lot less if you have that information earlier. You can't include the ramifications of missing the 2 point conversion in one scenario but not the other (unless you think Michigan is somehow more likely to convert with 2 seconds left than otherwise.) <br /><br />If you score with 2 seconds left and miss the 2 point conversion, your chances of winning are zero. If you score with 8 minutes left and miss the conversion, your chances are higher than zero. It's that simple. Well actually, it's not because....<br /><br />Point B: The real drawback here is if two things happen: 1) you fail on the conversion AND 2) Iowa scores. That turns a 9 point deficit into 12 (instead of 11) for a FG and 16 (instead of 15) for a TD. Reality is that if Iowa scores you are probably losing either way because they'd have run down the clock - especially since they're not really a big-play offense. <br /><br />The downside is very small. The upside is significant. This was an easy call to make.<br /><br />Hoke's call was essentially 'ignorance is bliss'. Frankly, I find it kind of cowardly.Lankownianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-67811563562915500102011-11-08T15:10:19.223-05:002011-11-08T15:10:19.223-05:00Good topic and subsequent debate.Good topic and subsequent debate.MichiganMan77noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-55292589144854885852011-11-08T14:10:52.147-05:002011-11-08T14:10:52.147-05:00That's certainly fair, definitely an oversight...That's certainly fair, definitely an oversight on my part.<br /><br />I still stand by my opinion but acknowledge that my math is not the correct way to support my argument.<br /><br />Either way, thanks for taking the time to respond. I read your blog daily and really enjoy the insights.AVCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-72912310287232452302011-11-08T12:47:46.160-05:002011-11-08T12:47:46.160-05:00Success rate and win probability are not equivalen...Success rate and win probability are not equivalent. I don't think that math works out quite right.Chris Gaerighttp://www.burgeoningwolverinestar.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-74114597491001861842011-11-08T12:01:12.235-05:002011-11-08T12:01:12.235-05:00I guess I am just failing to see how you would inc...I guess I am just failing to see how you would increase your WP by taking the extra point early. In this case then your WP would be 40% since a 2pt conversion is succesful 40% of the time. But if you went for the 2pt conversion after the first td your wp would be 40% + the chance that you win even after missign the 2pt conversion. All of this assuming that you score two TD's of course.<br /><br />So my math I guess works out to<br /><br />XP Early = 40% WP because you only have the one 2pt conversion attempt as time expires<br /><br />2pt Conversion Early = 40% WP + The odds you score twice in the remaining time. <br /><br />Even if the odds you score twice more aren't great you are adding to the 40% which is as high a WP as you can get by going for the Extra Point early. And by adding to the 40% that becomes the better optionAVCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-47742236074997230372011-11-08T11:43:16.853-05:002011-11-08T11:43:16.853-05:00If someone has a model to calculate win probabilit...If someone has a model to calculate win probability (other than the Advanced NFL Stats one, because it doesn't really work here), I'd love to see the analysis of win probably for the following (with 7:53 left on the clock and kicking the ball off):<br /><br />WP(extra point) vs. WP(2-pt make)*.4 + WP(2-pt miss)*.6<br /><br />I think this is the crux of my argument. My assumption is that WP(extra point) is higher.Chris Gaerighttp://www.burgeoningwolverinestar.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-76180038840370585152011-11-08T11:12:20.730-05:002011-11-08T11:12:20.730-05:00Chris, thanks for your comment, but I'm going ...Chris, thanks for your comment, but I'm going to have to agree with AVC here. The 2pt conversion is equally likely no matter when you go for it (that's an assumption). If you are supposing that you basically take yourself out of the game by missing early, then you have to assume that you are definitively taking yourself out of the game by missing late. The difference seems to be that: missing early gives you 20% chance of winning, and missing late gives you a 0% chance.<br /><br />At any rate, I've enjoyed thinking about why game theory says what it says, so thanks for that.Tylernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-8732829779520843012011-11-08T11:05:48.163-05:002011-11-08T11:05:48.163-05:00But if you miss early you still have the chance to...But if you miss early you still have the chance to get an onside kick and score again. If you miss late you have a 0% chance of scoring again because time is out. Or if time isn't out then you still need a succesful onside kick.AVCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-59301737543664690172011-11-08T11:03:04.323-05:002011-11-08T11:03:04.323-05:00I understand all of that in theory. What I'm s...I understand all of that in theory. What I'm saying is that practically speaking, if you miss the two-point conversion early in the quarter (in this instance specifically), the game is essentially over. What is required to win is so unlikely that you've more or less put it out of reach.<br /><br />The point is, I think it's less likely you come away with a win/tie if you miss it early (largely because of the onside kick which has a 20% success rate) than you would if you played the game out and went for it at the end of the game (a 40% success rate). Sure, if you make the two-point conversion early on, it's a whole different ballgame, but that's a gamble that I'm not sure is worth taking.Chris Gaerighttp://www.burgeoningwolverinestar.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-4784508705130631382011-11-08T10:47:41.022-05:002011-11-08T10:47:41.022-05:00Chris, consider the difference between the "G...Chris, consider the difference between the "Go for 2" columns: depending on if it's make or miss, the subsequent "defensive stop" and "touchdown drive" blocks are not the same. This is because you know that, if you miss the two-pointer, you adjust your tactics in the time remaining, and it will not be the same as your tactics supposing you make the two-pointer. This actually holds across all three columns as well: "defensive stop" and "TD drive" are generalized strategies, but they will be tactically different. And if you go for it earlier, you actually have more information about the outcome, meaning you have more control over your tactical approach.Tylernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-46162877807599589272011-11-08T10:36:34.174-05:002011-11-08T10:36:34.174-05:00If you miss the two-point conversion early, you pu...If you miss the two-point conversion early, you put the game out of reach for reasons that are largely out of your players'/coordinators' control. With a chance to send the game to overtime on a single play, you have significantly more autonomy. I'd rather go with this strategy.Chris Gaerighttp://www.burgeoningwolverinestar.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-54636619323518105112011-11-08T10:26:32.269-05:002011-11-08T10:26:32.269-05:00Yeah, disagree completely. You argue that the onsi...Yeah, disagree completely. You argue that the onside kick means you probably won't win if you miss the two point with time on the clock. Well you definitely won't win if you miss it at the end of the game.Jacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8059884704776101239.post-72893748035050749242011-11-08T10:11:08.271-05:002011-11-08T10:11:08.271-05:00So missing the 2 pt conversion the first time woul...So missing the 2 pt conversion the first time would make you play a perfect game but would give you a shot. Missing the 2 pt conversion with 0:00 seconds left ends the game and you don't have any chance. Obviously its not an ideal situation but you are at least giving your team a chance if you miss the 2 pt conversion early instead of late.AVCnoreply@blogger.com