Preview: Northwestern 2012

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#24 Northwestern vs. Michigan

The Big House, Ann Arbor, MI

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ESPN

Forecast: High-50s, 30% chance of rain 

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Last game
Last week, Northwestern was on a bye, but the week before that, they played a not-very-close game against Iowa. The Wildcats averaged 7.1 YPC against Iowa and would have beaten them worse had Northwestern not turned the ball over twice. The big change came with the reinstatement of Kain Colter as the starting quarterback for Northwestern. Coulter had been the proverbial change of pace QB for the Wildcats all season, coming in when the team wanted a stronger rushing attack. Nominal starter Trevor Siemian was an inadequate pocket passer: 58.9% completion percentage, 5.71 YPA, 4 TDs, and 1 INT for the season. A change was clearly in order.

Against Iowa, Colter went 6/9 through the air for 80 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, but he also presented a consistent option rushing attack throughout the game. Colter averaged 6.4 YPC on 26 carries, while starting running back Venric Mark averaged 10.1 YPC on 16 (!!!) carries. Iowa might be bad, but this Northwestern offese is probably scary.

Offense vs. Northwestern

Wondering who is going to start at quarterback is a waste of time because Michigan's offense is effectively the same regardless of who is under center. But to clarify: if Denard is healthy, he will be the starter. A more important question is how can Michigan fix the interior of its offensive line, which spent last week getting beaten off the line and put on skates against Minnesota. This is a problem.

The good news for Michigan is that Northwestern's defensive line is not particularly dynamic. The two defensive tackles are relatively svelte: Brian Arnfelt is 6'5", 300 lbs, and Sean McEvilly is 6'5", 290 lbs. In addition, both defensive ends are 6'4" and no heavier than 265 lbs. Arnfelt and McEvilly combine for 7.5 TFLs and 4 sacks, but only 40 combined total tackles. Defensive end Tyler Scott has managed 7 sacks and 8.5 TFL this season, but he will have the unenviable task of beating Taylor Lewan off the edge.

Where Northwestern makes it hay defensively is in the linebacker corps, where all three starting linebackers are in the top-four leading tacklers on the team. Those linebackers account for 16.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, and 228 (!!!!!!!) total tackles. Thems a lot of tackles. Oh yeah, and they also have two interceptions, 11 PBUs, and four recovered fumbles. Northwestern may have the best linebacker group in the conference. To show just how important this linebacking group is to Northwestern, aside from strong safety Ibraheim Campbell who has 67 total tackles, the next highest on the team is free safety Jared Carpenter with 37 tackles.

Despite those front-line inefficiencies, Northwestern's defense still stacks up statistically. (As a side note, as is the same with Michigan's lofty rankings, the conference-wide top-50 defense rankings are basically invalid given the Big Ten's ineptitude. That said...) Northwestern is 48th in pass efficiency defense, 23rd in rushing defense, and 35th in scoring defense. They're average in sacks (52nd) and below average at getting into the backfield (82nd). Regardless of these national rankings, though, this is the same team that allowed 41 points to Syracuse, 39 to Penn State, and 29 to Nebraska. This is a good-not-great defense.

The biggest concern for Michigan on this side of the ball is that this game pits weakness against weakness. If Michigan had its offensive line from last year, they would be able to bulldoze an undersized Wildcat defensive line and get to the second level. With the performance of Michigan's interior line this season, that's unlikely, which means Borges will have to rely on either Denard or Gardner to pass against the team's strongest unit.

Defense vs. Northwestern

Against Iowa, Northwestern finally figured out that Kain Coulter was their best player, so he'll be playing quarterback for most/all of the game on Saturday. Coulter isn't much of a passer, but the kid has speed to burn. For the season, Coulter is completing 69.7% of his passes, but for only 5.8 YPA. This is a dink and dunk offense through the air, but a dangerous offense on the ground (they own the 13th ranked rushing offense in the country).

Starting junior running back Venric Mark is averaging 6.5 YPC this season on 166 carries. To complement that attack, Coulter is averaging 5.5 YPC on 114 carries. This may be one of Northwestern's more impressive offenses in recent history. The offensive line features three seniors and two sophomores and will be difficult for Michigan's defensive line to handle.

Through the air, there's not much to be scared of. Despite the fact that they have highly touted recruit Kyle Prater (once a Michigan target), none of the Wildcat wide receivers are very dangerous. Then again, they don't had a quarterback to attack defenses vertically; starting wide receiver Tony Jones averages on 29 yards per game. Regardless of their talent level, this is the kind of passing attack that Michigan's secondary can thrive against. JT Floyd has made a living jumping short routes and Raymon Taylor has proven a sure tackler who is occasionally susceptible to pass interference.

This game will be settled by Michigan's front seven. Playing Nebraska recently will help in the preparation for this Wildcat outfit. They run similar run-first option schemes, but Northwestern has a star at running back where Nebraska was lacking one. Frank Clark made his return last week against Minnesota and promptly showed that he's still undisciplined when maintaining the edge. His ability to fight his instincts will be important. Otherwise, it falls on the shoulders of the usual suspects: Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, and Jordan Kovacs.

The point is, Northwestern's offense is one dimensional, but that dimension can be really dangerous if a defense gets caught out of position. Floyd and Taylor have been improving at getting off blocks on the edge and Ryan has shown he's one of the best linebackers in the league (and more importantly, in space).

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Shut down Northwestern's rushing offense. That's easier said than done, but given their performance against Nebraska two weeks ago in the face of 2008 Michigan Offense, I'm confident that Michigan can hold down this defense for the majority of the game. The Wildcats thrive on big plays, which is something Michigan's defense has been great at shutting down. On the other side of the ball, Michigan needs to find a way to move the ball consistently. The Northwestern linebackers are the real deal, so getting consistent yardage on 1st and 2nd down will be key to sustain drives and give the offense a chance to put points on the board.

How does Northwestern win? Neutralizing Michigan's defensive line will be the first step to a Wildcat win. No non-Alabama opponent has been able to do that, but Northwestern has the offensive line that might be able to. The Wildcat offense will also have to exploit some of the youth in Michigan's front seven. Frank Clark is particularly susceptible to misdirection and Desmond Morgan may struggle with the speed of Coulter and Mark. Defensively, the Wildcats need to win the line of scrimmage and get into the backfield quickly. Teams that shut down Michigan's offense always have a way of disrupting their rhythm and forcing third and long.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 57.16%

Final prediction: Northwestern will struggle to move the ball in this game. Penn State has the only defense on the Wildcat schedule to date that's any good, and Michigan's defense is almost certainly better than the Nittany Lions'. Northwestern averages 237 rushing yards per game, but Michigan will hold them under 200 and somewhere closer to 4 YPC than 5 YPC. When Michigan has the ball, however, the Northwestern linebackers prove to be as disruptive as they have been all season. Michigan once again loses the battle at the line of scrimmage and Fitz Toussaint fails to break 50 yards rushing. Denard plays but not particularly well; feeling pressure from the media and Gardner's performance last week, Denard throws two bad interceptions in this game but also manages to break a long run. It's a low-scoring game that Michigan wins in a nail biter. Northwestern 17 - Michigan 20

Preview: Nebraska 2012

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#22 Michigan vs. Nebraska

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Neb

Kickoff 8:00 pm EST

ESPN2

Forecast: Low-50s, 0% chance of rain 

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Nebraska Last Week
Through 55 minutes and 50 seconds last week, Nebraska had amassed a total of 387 total yards of offense against Northwestern, but managed only 16 points, thanks in large part to two lost fumbles. In its last two full drives, Nebraska racked up 156 yards, almost all on the arm of Taylor Martinez (11/13 for 143 yards and 2 TDs). For the game, Martinez threw for 342 yards on 39 attempts (8.8 YPA) and three touchdowns. On the ground, Martinez added 65 yards on 18 carries.

Defensively, Nebraska mostly shut down Northwestern's rushing attack. Venric Mark was able to rack up 116 yards on 18 carries, but he was the only one and largely because of an 80-yard run on a blown play by the Nebraska middle linebacker Will Compton (the team's leading tackler). Northwestern's offense isn't what it has been the last few years, but holding them to only 301 yards is still an accomplishment.

Offense vs. Nebraska

Since Michigan's offensive output generally comes down to how well Denard will fare in the passing game, Nebraska presents a unique problem: the Cornhuskers rank eighth in the nation in sacks with 21 total (3.14 per game). The charge is led by senior weakside defensive end terror Eric Martin (pictured). Martin has 5.5 sacks and 8 TFLs already this season. He also has 7 QB hits, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery. Shutting down Martin will be critical to winning this game, so expect Devin Funchess or another tight end to line up next to Schofield all game, forcing Martin to rush against Taylor Lewan. Martin isn't the only pass rusher, though. There are four different players on the Nebraska roster with at least two sacks this year and 13 with at least a half of a sack. For a quarterback who is prone to backfoot throws when he gets pressure, this kind of pass-rush spells doom for Michigan.

Nebraska is able to generate that kind of production because they play a lot of man coverage, both in its base formation and blitz coverage (though they don't blitz much). The 80-yard touchdown run that Nebraska allowed against Northwestern was the direct result of Will Compton being pulled to the flat trying to cover running back leaking out of the backfield. If anything could be gleaned from last week's matchup, it's that Nebraska is susceptible to counters and misdirection because of their aggressive man defense.

Despite all of the man coverage, Nebraska is an impressive 18th in pass efficiency defense. Michigan's receivers are going to struggle to get off the line against the Cornhusker cornerbacks. Josh Mitchell and Stanley Jean-Baptiste both play strong man coverage, and Michigan's wide receivers have had trouble with physical corners. Safeties Daimion Stafford and PJ Smith are also decent in coverage but are more of a factor in the run game, ranking second and third in tackles. Victimizing Nebraska's safeties and linebackers with play action is something Northwestern did often last week. Al Borges probably won't want to do this.

Those safeties have to be aggressive against the run because defensive tackle Baker Steinkuhler is a wiry 6'6" 290 lbs. That's one of the reasons that Nebraska is 90th in rushing defense this year. The other reason: if you make it past the defensive line, as long as you've spread the field, there's a good chance you're not going to see another defender until the safeties come into play. Making the proper reads in the option game and getting some blockers to the second level will be crucial for Michigan to spring big plays.

The best part about playing against Nebraska this year as opposed to 2011: no Lavonte David, the team's unquestioned leader and best defensive player last year. David stopped quite a few Denard runs last year from being 80-yarders with shoestring tackles. Despite generally solid linebacker play, if Michigan can get Denard or Toussaint in space against these linebackers, that's a win for the Wolverines.

Defense vs. Nebraska

You know Taylor Martinez, but you might not know 2012 Taylor Martinez. Though he's still not an elite passer, he's been significantly better this season, completing 67% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and a 15 TD/4 INT rate. Those are some scary numbers. However, his stats are significantly worse against teams with respectable defenses (UCLA, Wisconsin, Ohio State; 49/85, 57.6%, 574 yards, 6.75 YPA, 3 TD/4 INT).

It will be interesting to see what Michigan can do against Martinez. When he has time in the pocket, Martinez can make all of the throws, but Nebraska ranks 76th in sacks allowed. The problem is, Michigan can't generate a pass rush without blitzing. Greg Mattison finding ways to confuse Martinez without giving up too much in the run game may be the most important task he has all season.

Nebraska's rushing attack is still elite, averaging 279 yards per game (good for 6th in the country). Rex Burkhead is coming back from a leg injury that kept him out of a lot of the Northwestern game. Last year, Burkhead was the hot commodity coming into Nebraska's game against Michigan, but managed only 36 yards on 10 carries. Martinez wasn't much better on the ground or through the air, but the latter of which we've already addressed.

I'm frankly not worried about Nebraska's rushing attack (famous last words, I know). I have implicit faith in Mattison's ability to scheme for and prepare his players for any offensive attack that can't simply overpower Michigan with talent (see: Alabama). Mattison knows how these spread attacks work because a) he was Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida and b) he goes against Denard Robinson in practice every week.

The key to winning this side of the ball will be the defensive line. Quinton Washington and Will Campbell are basically constants, and Craig Roh has been a good-to-great strongside defensive end. Jibreel Black and Frank Clark at the weakside defensive end will have to stay disciplined against the option and stick to whatever gameplan Mattison has designed (play the QB or the RB). If it's Black at WDE, his lack of speed may be an issue, but if Clark can step into the role, that should help nullify Nebraska speed.

If the defensive line can hold up, Kenny Demens, Desmond Morgan, and Jake Ryan against running backs in space will decide how this game goes for Nebraska offensively. Though Martinez has a lot of straight-line speed and a little bit of shake to him, none of Nebraska's running backs are threatening in the open field.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Getting pressure on Taylor Martinez will be crucial. If they can force Martinez to complete closer to 50%-55% of his passes, Mattison can start loading up against the run. Jake Ryan will be responsible for a lot of this pass rush as he has been all season long. He will have to stay disciplined keeping outside leverage and make sure to wrap up in the backfield. JT Floyd and Raymon Taylor are going to have their hands full with Nebraska's taller wide receivers, which is another reason pass rush will be critical.

Offensively, Michigan needs to get Denard to the second level. Nebraska's linebackers are aggressive downhill and just watched Michigan run head first into MSU's linebackers for 60 minutes. If Patrick Omameh and Ricky Barnum can get to the second level and block Nebraska's linebackers, Denard will be able to pick up big chunks of yards. In the passing game, Denard and Borges need to find an effective way to attack man-to-man coverage down the field.

How does Nebraska win? Keep doing what they've been doing. If Martinez is completing 67% of his passes in this game, Michigan is sunk. The Nebraska coaching staff varies their run game as well as almost anyone in the country. Keeping Michigan's defensive line on its heels with multiple option looks will further slow down the Wolverines' already inept pass rush. They will, however, need to find a way to get big plays from non-Martinez ball carriers.

Defensively, Nebraska needs to keep generating the pass rush they've gotten all season. Though Denard has cut down his terrible, backfoot throws since the Notre Dame game, the kind of pressure Nebraska generates could see a return to that inconsistency. If the linebackers can stop Denard and Toussaint from breaking long plays, a physical secondary will be able to stop Michigan's passing game.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 41.031%

Final Prediction. Offensively, expect Al Borges to utilize the counter draw that Michigan has shown a few times this year and last, as well as the throwback screen, both of which will punish Nebraska's linebackers for overpursuing. Denard and Toussaint both break 30+ yard runs as Nebraska linebackers get caught out of position. However, Denard throws two interceptions, both of which are meaningful and not end-of-half heaves.

Martinez will complete more deep, downfield throws in this game than Michigan has allowed all season, but none of them go for touchdowns; they're heaves to wide receivers who can out-leap and out-muscle Michigan's corners. However, Michigan holds Nebraska to near 150 yards rushing. It's boom-or-bust for Nebraska's offense. Michigan finally gets a good kick/punt return. Nebraska rallies late but Michigan clutches to the win. Michigan 27 - Nebraska 24

Progress Report: The defense

Previously: The offense

Defensive Tackle

Grade: A

No position on Michigan's depth chart caused more consternation preseason than the defensive tackle position. Options consisted of: a middling senior (Campbell), OL convert (Washington), DE convert (black), redshirt sophomore who hadn't seen any playing time (Richard Ash), or an oversized true freshman (Ondre Pipkins).

What this team needs from Campbell is an every-down nose tackle/3-tech DT that can hold up against the run and generate nominal pressure against the pass. Having a penetrating DT the likes of Martin is a luxury, not a necessity for great defenses. The pass rush from the defensive line should be generated primarily by the defensive ends (about which more later), not the inside. If Campbell can stay gap sound and hold his ground against double teams on the run, Michigan's experienced linebackers should be able to make the proper reads and tackle...

Because [Washington]'s going to be a starter, the coaches have been pumping him up throughout camp, praising his abilities. At 6'4", 300 lbs, he won't be much of a slasher, but he may be able to hold his ground much like Campbell. As a position switch, leverage and technique remain a concern, but if he can stay sound in the middle, Michigan should remain stout against the run and rely on blitzes and the defensive ends for pass rush.

Six games later, Michigan's defensive tackles may be the second-best unit on the defense.

Quinton Washington is a runaway candidate for most-improved player on Michigan's roster and perhaps in the conference. Washington's (and Will Campbell's) contributions have been a little harder to quantify, though: through six games, Washington has marked 8 solo tackles, 10 assists, and 2 TFLs. His totals last year? Nine games played, one tackle. Obviously playing time is a factor here. Washington was backing up ironman Mike Martin (who, for reference, ended the season with 20 solo tackles, 44 assists, and 6 TFLs; Washington won't match those numbers, but the coaches have asked hi to play a different style of football), but even in his spot duty, Washington was a liability. Now, he's proven concerns about his technique unfounded and has been exactly what Michigan needs: a strong body in the middle of the formation that can get push against guards and hold up to double teams, allowing linebackers to make plays.

The other pleasant surprise this year has been the development of Will Campbell into a similar immovable force on the defensive line. Campbell's 2012 stat line is similar to Washington's: 9 solo tackles, 9 assists, 1 TFL, 1 sack (he tallied 5 tackles, 9 assists, 2.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks in 2011). Like Washington, Campbell will never be the slashing nose tackle/3-tech that Mike Martin was. What he has done is become a reliable interior lineman who holds up to double teams and allowed those the linebackers behind him to fill the gaps.

One of the reasons Michigan's defensive line has been so successful is because of Greg Mattison's reliance on slants. Campbell and Washington have both proven to have good first steps playside on slants enabling them to cut into the backfield. These slants have also produced simplified reads for the linebackers to clean up plays on the backside.

The defensive tackle position has seen a lot of rotation this season. In nickel packages/passing situations, Craig Roh and Jibreel Black have assumed the DT positions. And to give the starters a blow, Ondre Pipkins has been rotating onto the field with regularity, especially in the last few games. Pipkins has returned middling results, occasionally showing the ability to hold up to double teams and get push off the ball, but also being blown back on various run plays. Defensive tackles take time to develop and Pipkins will be a project.

Going Forward
This unit projects to improve as the season progresses. Hoke and Mattison are magicians, of this, I'm sure. As Washington and Campbell see more snaps, their understanding of the defense and what an opposing offense is trying to do will only increase. With similar development from Pipkins and Richard Ash (maybe), the coaching staff will be looking toward the future with the defensive tackles.

When the dust settles

Terrible Illinois 0 - Michigan 45
Preview

Joseph Tobianski | AnnArbor.com

Now that was vintage Michigan football: injure the opposing quarterback and grind an opponent to dust on defense. Illinois is terrible, but beating them that summarily is still fairly astonishing given the relative talent levels on defense. Even when michigan beat Minnesota last year--a squad in contention for the worst Big Ten team of all time--the Gophers still managed 177 total yards, good for 3.76 yards per play. Against Illinois on Saturday, Michigan's defense held the Illini to 134 yards on 2.5 yards per play. The Wolverine secondary allowed Illinois' two quarterbacks to complete only 7 of 16 passes for 29 yards. The last time Michigan's defense beat a D-I opponent that badly was probably the 2007 Notre Dame game in which they allowed the Irish only 79 yards. Defenders on that team: Terrance Taylor, Brandon Graham, Tim Jamison, Morgan Trent, Donovan Warren, Shawn Crable, Stevie Brown, and Jamar Adams, among others.

There's not much else to say about this game. Michigan beat Illinois at every position, all game. The only thing that slowed Michigan's offense was the non-injury to Denard and two drops by Michigan's receivers on passes thrown by Russell Bellomy. If those catches are made, the Denard injury probably won't even stop Michigan's offense. Fitz Toussaint didn't look great, but that's the only negative that can be taken from this game.

Despite much of the Big Ten schedule left to play including games against Nebraska, Michigan State, and Ohio State, it may be time to start considering Michigan as the best team on both sides of the ball in this conference. Though the Buckeyes just beat up on Nebraska and Indiana, they were still only able to manage 17 points against Michigan State--approximately as much as Iowa did against the Spartans. MSU's defense, meanwhile, has allowed 27 points to Indiana and 20 to a probably bad Notre Dame offense. Though I hate this kind of transitive property assumption, the performances in-conference to date point squarely at Michigan being the most well-rounded team.

With the transformation of the defense this year and last, we can be certain these aren't outlier performances. And with a healthy Denard being on the same page as Al Borges, the sky is the limit for the offense. Make no mistake the 2007 Michigan team would still beat 2012 Michigan to a pulp, but these past two years have been two huge steps to getting this program back to where it's supposed to be. Injured quarterbacks for all!

Bullets

• So maybe it's time to start panicking about Toussaint. Despite having blockers in front of him all game, he kept trying to break a run to the outside rather than taking the yards he was given and keeping Michigan ahead of the chains. I don't know why he's been so impatient this season--perhaps he's just stir crazy from early in the year--but it's becoming a problem. For the game, he managed just 62 yards on 18 carries.
• Denard completed 7 of 11 passes for 159 yards and no interceptions. Excise the 71-yard touchdown pass to Gallon and he throws 6/10 for 88 yards (8.8 YPA). Still good. One of the big changes in the last two games has been a relative dearth of deep shots. This is a good thing and the main reason Denard is playing this well. Dear Al, please continue this trend and don't freak out if Michigan gets behind in a game.
• Three of Michigan's top four tacklers: Jake Ryan (#1), Kenny Demens (#2), and Desmond Morgan (#4). You don't get to a member of the secondary (Kovacs) until eighth on that list, behind James Ross, even. Michigan's front seven is turning into something special.
• Speaking of which, Demens' interception showed the kind of anticipation and development you want to see from senior linebackers.
• Dennis Norfleet terrifies me every time he touches the ball.
• I have a standing rule: if you're a college football team taking field goals longer than 40 yards, you're going to lose that game. This is how Ohio State wins every close game, invariably forcing teams to kick 42-yard field goals (and missing) on 4th and 5. Michigan did this to Illinois in this game. They missed, because obviously they did.

Prediction Tracker
Preview:

Michigan starts scoring early and doesn't look back. Denard doesn't have nearly the rushing totals he did against Purdue, but that's offset by Fitz Toussaint having his best game of the season, finally breaking the 100-yard mark. Denard lights it up through the air though and finishes with two TDs and no interceptions. Defensively, JT Floyd has another strong game but is overshadowed by Jake Ryan who has 3 TFLs. Scheelhaase is pressured early and often and ends up throwing one arm-punt that sets Michigan up for an easy touchdown. Terrible Illinois 13 - Michigan 49

Michigan scored on their first two possessions and were basically only stopped because Denard got injured. Denard's rushing numbers weren't as high as they could have been because Michigan didn't need them to be. The same goes for his passing numbers: no need to throw the ball when everyone on Michigan's roster can find a running lane. Fitz: sadface. Jake Ryan had 3.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. Scheelhaase threw one INT but would have thrown more had Jibreel Black not broken his brain.

Next Week
Michigan State. Winning next week would go a long way to locking up the Legends division crown. It would all but knock MSU out of the running, leaving Iowa (2-0), Northwestern (2-1), and Nebraska (1-1) the only teams able to challenge for the title. I called this a 60/40 win for Michigan before the season and haven't seen anything to change that impression: Le'veon Bell is not terrifying despite what people will have you believe, Andrew Maxwell is incredibly raw, and the defense, as mentioned above, has now allowed 27 to Indiana, 20 to Notre Dame, and 19 to Iowa. It will be closer than you'd like, but Michigan should win comfortably.

Running away

Michigan 44 - Purdue 13
Preview

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Usually a win against a typical Purdue team would not inspire a lot of confidence for the future, but given all of the Borges vs. Denard talk the last two weeks, this game represents one of the best marriages of the two talents we've seen to date. During the bye week, Borges said he was going to rewatch every play he had ever called at Michigan and it appeared he followed up on that promise. Gone from Michigan's offense were the downfield heaves, replaced by the short passing game Denard excels at. Denard carried the ball 24 times, his second-highest total this season, most of which were the inverted veer--Michigan's most successful running play all season. Though the level of competition was not up to Notre Dame's defense, this was a return to the style of offense that turned Denard into one of the nation's most dangerous players.

This game was also another building block in the not-so-straw house of Michigan's defense. This Boilermaker offense, while not prolific, is still the most recent team to score an offensive touchdown on Notre Dame and had properly rolled the cupcakes you would expect from a good offense (48 against Eastern Kentucky, 54 against Eastern Michigan, and 51 against Marshall). Putting aside Raymon Taylor's gift pick-six* Michigan held Purdue to just 56 yards on 26 carries (2.2 YPC) and only 157 yards through the air on 23/35. Perhaps the most promising stat of the game is that Michigan's top four tacklers were all front-seven guys (Kenny Demens, Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, and Craig Roh). Michigan was controlling the line of scrimmage and hitting Purdue ball carriers at the point of attack. When Jordan Kovacs only makes one tackle in a dominating defensive performance, you know things are looking up.

Then again, Purdue might be terrible, or simply Purdue. Pessimism about this game was born more of Michigan's inadequacies than Purdue's talent, so this win doesn't do a lot more than assure fans that Borges can get this figured out and Greg Mattison and his defensive staff are miracle workers. While I was a lot higher on the defense coming into the year than most people, even I didn't expect performances like this. Despite the loss of Blake Countess, the secondary is humming along, the defensive line started as a question mark but has turned into consistent good-not-great performers, and the linebackers are coming along albeit slower than most would like.

Most importantly, this game gets Michigan back on track. Losses to Notre Dame suck, but they don't have any impact on Michigan's pursuit of the Big Ten title. Holding serve against underdogs and beating Michigan State and Nebraska should more or less assure Michigan a spot in the Big Ten title game against... something from the Leaders division (probably Wisconsin).

*This was Michigan's first pick-six from a member of the secondary since Donovan Warren picked off Ricky Stanzi in 2009 and took it to the house. Michigan also got a pick-six from Brandon Herron against Western Michigan in 2011. This lack of production isn't totally surprising given Michigan's bereft secondary the last few years, but those are dire numbers.

Bullets

• Fitz Toussaint. Toussaint is not broken, but Michigan's offensive line might be. The only way Michigan could move the ball on the ground is when Denard read a Purdue defender who didn't stay disciplined. Otherwise, the Purdue front seven tore up Michigan's offensive line. That's how Fitz Toussaint goes from a 1,000 yard rusher to getting 19 yards on 17 carries against Purdue. Sure, a few of those were carries form the one yard line that netted exactly as much as was needed, but the interior of Michigan's offensive line is precisely as shaky as it has seemed all year.
• As a bonus, during the game, the Big Ten Network put up a stat about Denard's rushing this season. Running left, he was averaging 8+ YPC; middle, ~6 YPC; and right ~4 YPC. This is the perfect visualization for the talent on Michigan's offensive line.

• Update: (directional running at right)
• There wasn't much receiving to be had in this game as Michigan dominated on the ground, but the names in the boxscore are what you would expect: Gallon, Gardner, Roundtree, and Funchess. Those are your receivers going forward with occasional appearances by Drew Dileo.
• The Purdue offense is probably terrible, but they couldn't get anything done in this game. More impressively, I think Michigan spent almost the entire game in a base defensive set without much blitzing. They brought in the nickel package a few times, but this game was won by being better at the point of attack.
• The Denard/Vincent Smith fumble was crappy, but I'm pretty sure it was because of a nickel blitz off the edge. Secondary blitzes on the zone read continue to scare me.

Prediction Tracker
Preview:

Final prediction: It's hard being optimistic about this game given Short and Denard's most recent performance. Michigan's offense is going to stall a lot in this game. But I'm not sure that Purdue's offense will have much success. The over/under for this game is somewhere in the mid- to high-50s, which, if I were a betting man, I'd take the under. This is a low-scoring game with both quarterbacks making a number of mistakes. Short's strength and Michigan's interior line weaknesses actually dictate how this game goes, but Denard breaks a long run that ends up being the difference. Michigan 17 - Purdue 16.

So basically all wrong. Kawann Short ended up being a major factor in the game (8 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 pass breakup), but wasn't able to get to Denard on passing downs. He helped shut down Fitz Toussaint but did little else. Michigan's offense didn't stall at all, punting only twice and missing a long field goal. Also, it's a good thing I'm not a betting man because this game went over the O/U.

Next Week
The next terrible Big Ten team Michigan takes on is terrible Illinois at the Big House. I saw something to this effect Tweeted out this weekend, but in Illinois' last 11 games against BCS competition, Illinois' points for are: 14 (Wisconsin), 7 (Penn State), 14 (Arizona State), 24 (Western Michigan), 20 (UCLA, last year), 7 (Minnesota), 17 (Wisconsin), 14 (Michigan), 7 (Penn State), 14 (Purdue), and 7 (Ohio State). This Nathan Scheelhaase might not be very good. The only thing that gives me pause about this game is Michigan's struggles against Air Force's offense this season, but Illinois does not run the wishbone and their defense appears to be non-existant.

Hesitant linebackers versus Bama

One of the biggest concerns about Michigan's linebackers coming into this season was their continued indecisiveness in 2011. By not making quick reads, the linebackers allow lead blockers and offensive linemen to make their blocks downfield, opening cutback lanes for running backs. Much like breaking in Schofield at right tackle, this was the wrong game to remedy those linebacker issues.

Early in the game, before Michigan was down by double-digits, Alabama had a rare second-and-long. They lined up in a one-back, two-WR set, with an H-back and tight end on the strongside of the field. Michigan is in it's 4-3 under with Jordan Kovacs rolled into the box on the weakside of the field. (The second view below gives a much better perspective on what happens.)

As the ball is snapped, Will Campbell and Quinton Washington both slant to their right into the strongside of the field. This allows them to cut into the backfield but also gives a free release to the Alabama center. Everyone relevant to the play has started to move except Kenny Demens (highlighted in red).

As you can see, Washington and Campbell have now slanted toward the backside of the play and are being pushed that way by Alabama's guards. The B-gap on the weakside of the field is wide open for Desmond Morgan (#44) to fill (the free-releasing center is responsible for blocking Morgan). The Bama H-back (#31) is headed upfield to block Demens who will be responsible for the cutback lane.

Morgan quickly fills the B gap as the Bama center prepares to seal him to the outside. Washington and Campbell have slanted past the play but have forced the Bama running back (Jalston Fowler) into a tightening B gap. It is Demens' responsibility to fill this hole but as you can see below, the H-back is close to blocking him.

Before Fowler makes it out of the backfield, the H-back has been able to run out of the backfield and across the formation to engage Demens who should be filling the cutback hole. Demens is now being pushed out of the play (red).

Demens has now been pushed to the ground opening a huge hole for Fowler to run through. He'll be tackled 14 yards downfield.

Video

Takeaway

The only thing that gives me pause on this play is the slant by Campbell and Washington, but I think they played this properly and were instructed to slant to the strongside. Both got deep into the backfield and eventually pushed out of the play, but I don't think that was responsible for this result. If they're slanting to the strongside of the play, it's the responsibility of Morgan and Demens to fill the gaps behind them. Morgan does so, but Demens hesitates as the play starts, allowing time for the Alabama H-back to push him beyond his assignment. This kind of thing was happening all game as pulling linemen and lead blockers were able to get to the point of attack a step ahead of Michigan's linebackers, pushing them out of the way.

I'm singling out Demens here only because this play stood out to me, but this happened to Demens, Morgan, and Ross all game. But this continues a trend that we saw last year from Demens. His first step is usually a beat after it should be. In this instance, he needs to know that Campbell and Washington are slanting to the strongside. If Alabama runs into that slant and is able to make yards, good for them, but something spectacular has to happen. But a strongside slant from both DTs will naturally open up lanes on the weakside of the play to be filled by the middle and weakside 'backers. Demens seems unsure of the structure of this defensive playcall and is too hesitant to be effective.

You come at the king, you best not miss

#8 Michigan 14 - #2 Alabama 41
Preview

In the second quarter, with Michigan trailing 24-0 and backed up inside their 10-yard line, Kirk Herbstreit was talking about Michigan's non-existant running game. The camera panned up to Al Borges in the coordinator's booth. After relaying the upcoming 3rd down play, Borges shook his head in disbelief and rubbed his face. It was the unmistakeable look of someone who had run out of answers, like working your way through a maze and finding only brick walls.

The problem wasn't Borges' schemes being out flanked. The problem was an offensive line that got pushed into the backfield on every play. It was a quarterback with dysfunctional throwing mechanics unable to hit receivers. It was receivers unable to get separation from their defensive counterparts. Alabama is a great team, but they are not an unbeatable team. There were opportunities to attack them in this game that Michigan simply missed, usually because of performance errors more than schematic inefficiencies.

No one really expected Michigan to win this game; 14-point Vegas spreads are not a mistake. Blogging for the last three seasons, I've been able to explain away most of Michigan's losses: walk-on quarterbacks, untimely turnovers, terrible special teams, unsound schemes. There was always something you could take from the games and say, "If we just did _____ better, we would have won." After watching Alabama dismantle this team, the only feeling I have is frustration: Michigan is just not as good as Alabama. Our team has worse players. The Alabama offensive and defensive lines beat the Michigan offensive and defensive lines. Alabama's linebackers are always in the right spot and safeties fly downhill to blow up option plays in the backfield. AJ McCarron can complete downfield passes.

Blame oversigning and Nick Saban and the SEC for allowing shady recruiting practices. Sure, those are the reasons that Alabama has better players. But regardless of why they're better, Michigan is operating with sub-par talent and will continue to, relative to the national powerhouses, for another few years until their oversigning reserves drain out. So it's frustrating watching your team getting beaten by superior athletes and knowing that it'll be years until you can actually compete with them again.

The game itself played out almost exactly as expected: Alabama pulled away early, Denard struggled to find a rhythm, and the Tide won the game on the ground. Michigan's defensive line held up relatively well. Campbell and Washington took on double teams and didn't get pushed into the secondary, but Michigan's linebackers were outright terrible. Desmond Morgan was pulled after the second (?) Alabama drive in favor of freshman James Ross who also found himself out of position and over-pursuing plays. Kenny Demens is still only able to move in one direction on any given play. And Jake Ryan, who was victimized on a play-action TD pass, was a non-factor as Alabama continuously attacked the middle and weakside of the Michigan defense.

Denard had one of his worst games as a starter but for almost no reason. He was only sacked once and had plenty of time to stand in the pocket and throw, but his mechanics killed his accuracy. Denard stepped into approximately one throw all game, and it ended as a 71-yard touchdown strike to Jeremy Gallon. But on most of his throws, Denard would square his feet and heave the ball downfield. Denard's other major downfall: he was staring down Devin Gardner all game and tried forcing the ball to him rather than taking what the defense offered. While most of his forced throws to Gardner ended in PBUs, one of them ended as a pick-6.

So Michigan lost to a team that's much better than them. Chatter after the game implied that Alabama would have a chance to run the table this year, but there's no way they don't lose at least one or two games. From here, the road only gets easier for Michigan. Playing Air Force and UMass in the next two weeks will be a good primer for the Big Ten season. This team should still challenge for a Big Ten title, but any dreams that they might be one of the nation's elite--given health--have gone out the window.

AP Photo/LM Otero

Bullets

• Despite it being the opening game of the season, I think it's fair to say that Senior Denard is not a robotic, laser-passing Junior Denard. At this point, Denard is what he is. That'll win Michigan a lot of games this year, but against elite defenses, he's still going to struggle.
• No, Denard did not get enough carries. His carries wouldn't have gone anywhere either because the Alabama defensive line was in the backfield immediately.
• Devin Gardner is big and fast but is a horrible route runner. He will mix spectacular plays with missed opportunities because of poor routes.
• Bubble screens! For whatever reason, Al Borges changed his opinion of bubble screens. Michigan threw two in the game and they were two of the more successful plays the team ran.
• People are really excited about Dennis Norfleet because... I'm not really sure why. He looks fast, but this game didn't inspire much. He has potential.
• Elliott Mealer ended up at center for much of the game. I'm not really sure who was playing left guard, but the line seemed coherent. They weren't able to get any push against Alabama's defensive front, but that won't be the case throughout the season.
• Every time Greg Mattison blitzed, Saban had the perfect play to counter-act it. Aside from the first defensive series, not much of what the defense did made a difference.
• Michigan forced a three-and-out on the first possession because Alabama ran to the strongside of the field, which Michigan stopped for one yard. After that, they ran almost exclusively at Desmond Morgan and Kenny Demens up the middle and to the weakside.
• The Countess injury didn't have much of an impact on this game, but it might going forward. Courtney Avery got burned when he slipped on a double move, but otherwise, he was indistinguishable from any other corner.
• Kovacs and Thomas Gordon both got beaten in the running game by poor angles and arm tackles. So did everyone else though.
• The whole defensive line, while lacking playmakers, performed well.

Next Week
Michigan looks to get their season back on track next week against Air Force. The Falcons run wishbone option football, which is a little worrysome given the linebacker play and lack of D-line talent. Expect some long runs from Air Force due to poor angles, but the defense should be able to contain a pedestrian attack. Offensively, Denard and Fitz Toussaint should get the team moving.

What to expect: The Team x3 2012

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Offensive Line and Tight Ends, Defensive Line, Linebackers, Secondary

The Schedule
The worst thing Brady Hoke did last year (there weren't many things) was go 11-2 with some help from smoke and mirrors. Commanding losses to MSU and Iowa speak for themselves, but Michigan survived by the teeth of their skin against a crappy Notre Dame team, a crappy Ohio State team, and inexplicably beat Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. This could just as easily have been an 8-5 unit last year. We were not. For that, we rejoice.

Unfortunately, Team 133 enters the 2012 season with lofty expectations--ranked 8th in the country--and with one of the more difficult schedules to boot. Michigan is on the road against Alabama, Notre Dame, Purdue, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Ohio State. The only home matchup Michigan has against a top-level opponent is a rebuilding Michigan State team that frankly, the Wolverines would beat in East Lansing.

The point is, the schedule does not set up well for a team rebuilding its offensive and defensive lines and with shaky depth at just about every position ont he field. Though bye weeks aren't quite as beneficial the following Saturday as you would expect, to add to scheduling frustration, Michigan takes the week off before the Purdue game. Purdue.

But because predicting the season before it even starts is totally reasonable, here's a relatively positive spin (saywhatnow?) on this year's schedule:

Opponent	Outcome
Alabama	L
Air Force	W
UMass	W
@ ND	L
BYE
@ Purdue	W
Illinois	W
MSU	W
@ Nebraska	W
@ Minnesota	W
Northwestern	W
Iowa	W
@ Ohio	L

Before I started writing this, I was convinced this team would top out at 8-4, but I'm in a good mood, so 9-3 seems attainable. Alabama is a certain loss. Notre Dame is probably a toss up, depending on whether or not Brian Kelly can pick a decent starter from his gaggle of mediocre QBs. And Ohio State is, well, probably a loss. While Urban Meyer will turn his current roster into something special eventually, Braxton Miller is still the kid that led the team to a 6-7 record last year and probably still can't complete a pass. But it's in Columbus so, loss.

The rest of the games seem like lock wins (Air Force, UMass, @Minnesota, Northwestern) or at worse 60-40 Michigan wins (@Purdue, Illinois, MSU, @Nebraska, Iowa). Now, this is college football and an injury to Denard means 9-3 instantly becomes 6-6. But we're functioning under the impression that God wouldn't do that to us. Right God? Right?

Do I really feel like Michigan will end the season at 9-3? Probably not. The chances of the team upsetting Alabama, Notre Dame, or Ohio State--all on the road--are pretty slim. But the chances of at least one of Iowa, MSU, or Nebraska beating the team are relatively high; they're all more or less on the same talent level.

How will we get there, though? [Read after the jump for offense and defense in total]

What to expect: Linebackers 2012

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Offensive Line and Tight Ends, Defensive Line

Projected Starters (SAM, MIKE, WILL): Jake Ryan, Kenny Demens, Desmond Morgan

Last year, Michigan's linebacking corps hovered somewhere around Pretty Good, but that's to be expected when you're starting freshmen (one a redshirt) at both the strong- and weakside positions. In 2012, Michigan returns its entire starting linebacking group headlined by senior anchor Kenny Demens.

By this point, you probably know Demens' game: a downhill, hard-hitting middle linebacker. MGoBlog is high on his coverage skills, but I'm not quite as certain he's a great coverage linebacker. While Demens is able to run with linebackers heading down the field, he struggles mightily in zone coverage. His ability to cover seam routes is a bonus, but his underneath coverage stuggles because of his lack of route recognition. A number of times over the last two years, Demens has been frozen by play action and has struggled to defend underneath passing routes. He completely blew his assignment once against ND last year and showed his hesitancy against an EMU jet sweep. The good news is that during both his sophomore and junior seasons, he's quickly corrected his mistakes.

The point is, the strongest aspect of Demens' game is coming downhill on blitzes and stuffing the run. I don't think he'll ever be an elite coverage linebacker, which limits Mattison's blitzing schemes a bit, but not enough to be a hindrance. This year, expect the same from Demens: stout against the run, good at wrapping up tackles, and a suspect cover guy. It wouldn't surprise me to see Demens pulled off the field occasionally on nickel packages to get a more fleet-of-foot linebacker on the field. Otherwise, Demens is the defensive anchor in the front seven.

Flanking Demens will be sophomore Desmond Morgan (weakside/WILL) and redshirt sophomore Jake Ryan (strongside/SAM). Ryan was the talk of the town following the 2011 spring game and delivered on that promise during his rookie campaign. Ryan finished 2011 with 20 tackles, 17 assists, 11 TFLs, and 3 sacks. His season wasn't without hiccups though. Against MSU, he got confused on a zone vs man coverage scheme negating a great blitz by Michigan, and he showed frequent issues early in the season maintaining the edge against the run. As the year progressed, those freshman issues worked themselves out and Ryan proved to be one of the most consistent impact performers on the defense. Expect Ryan to maintain or slightly improve his numbers from last year while almost eliminating those mental mistakes. If he experiences the kind of freshman-to-sophomore year spike that you generally see, Ryan should garner All-Conference consideration by the season's end.

At the weakside linebacker spot will be Desmond Morgan once again. Morgan, like Ryan, exhibited a lot of rookie mistakes in run support, letting people get outside of the defense for big gains, but overall, he had an impressive season for being a true freshman probably playing out of position (he's more suited for the downhill middle linebacker slot than the rangy, lanky WILL). Even with some early struggles, Morgan charted 26 tackles, 37 assists, 4 TFLs, and 1 sack last year. Like Ryan, expect those numbers to rise slightly while cutting out many of the freshman mistakes. Morgan will never be the prototypical weakside linebacker, so expecting much more out of him is probably out of the question, but he'll be a player that will be in the right position and make tackles when they head his way.

The Backups (SAM; MIKE; WILL): Cam Gordon; Joe Bolden, Mike Jones; James Ross, Brandin Hawthorne

For the first time in three seasons, Cam Gordon is not coming into the season being hyped to the moon at a new position. This is a good thing for both the team (his previous appearances did not go as planned) and Gordon himself (he's finally playing the position he's supposed to). If not for the breakout season by Ryan last year, Gordon would be a serviceable starter at the SAM position. As it is, he will likely moonlight on nickel packages when Ryan bounces down to a defensive end position and Michigan needs more coverage skills in the field. Gordon will likely appear in every game and make a few plays that make you think, "Wow why doesn't that guy play more?" By the end of the season, you'll just be glad that Michigan finally has a quality backup at some defensive position.

Coming off the bench behind Demens will be true freshman Joe Bolden and journeyman Mike Jones. Bolden comes in with a load of recruiting hype and has impressed during spring and fall camp. Bolden is known for laying the lumber on ball carriers and proved to be an adequate coverage guy in high school. He'll get plenty of snaps this year and the hope is that he can approximate Demens' production without too many rookie mistakes. Playing time against Alabama will probably be scarce, but the next few games should see Bolden engrain himself in the rotation. Mike Jones will continue to be Mikes Jones: getting essentially zero snaps barring injury.

On the weakside of the field, true freshman James Ross and Brandin Hawthorne will give Morgan rest when he needs it. Ross, like Bolden, is a touted recruit who came onto campus and quickly became the #2 at his position, surpassing an upperclassman. The man that now sits third on the depth chart is Brandin Hawthorne who made a few game-changing plays against Notre Dame last year but remains a tiny, inconsistent linebacker. You'll probably see Hawthorne on occasional nickel concepts, but otherwise, he's deep in the reserves. Unless Morgan gets injured and Ross proves to be untenable at the WILL position, Hawthorne will spend most of his season on special teams.

Conclusion
(I probably should've done a conclusion section for each of these previous but I didn't. The more I wrote here, the more it seemed appropriate.)
Like most positions, Michigan's starting linebackers should all be somewhere from good-to-great this year, but injuries could send the unit into a tailspin. The backups are recruits with solid pedigrees, but they're still just freshmen for the most part. Unlike other positions, the 2nd and 3rd stringers probably have more of a purpose in the structure of the defense than at other positions. You can easily see Gordon and Hawthorne coming into games on situational downs that better utilize their skillsets. With Mattison's schemes intended to get blitzing linebackers into the backfield, this unit will probably show up frequently in the box score and could be the most disruptive force the team has defensively. With a suspect pass rush from the defensive line, the linebackers are going to need to find openings and land Mattison's blitzes.

VT vs. Miami (FL) impressions

All 2012 Sugar Bowl coverage can be found on the Bowl Game page.

The following are various impressions gleaned from the Hokies 38-35 win over Miami (FL) this season. I cherry picked this game because of Jacory Harris' skill set and its similarity to Denard's. As such, this post is heavy on defensive scouting. More thorough breakdowns of blitzes and defensive schemes will come later this week.

Defense
Formation. Virginia Tech played from a whole bunch of different formations, from their standard 4-3 to a hybrid 3-3 to a heavy 4-4 look to something approximating Michigan's Okie formation. They were situational formations; the team rarely blitzed directly from the 4-3 front. The look:

4-4 (run stop)

3-3 (blitz)

Okie

From the Okie package, the Hokies rarely dropped linemen into coverage, but it was still used as a means to confuse Jacory Harris and the Miami offensive line.

Blitzing. Virginia Tech brought pressure from everywhere, but most of the time, it came from the linebackers. They came both on direct and delayed blitzes and from a number of different formations. The blitzes were usually long developing and Harris had a lot of room/time to dance in the pocket. However, he rarely passed out of it and the blitzers usually found him eventually.

Linebackers. Speaking of linebackers, Virginia Tech's appear to be awful. There's a reason that four of the top five tacklers on the team are in the secondary. The Hokie linebackers are bad at run fills, over pursue the run, and are really susceptible to play action. They secondary plays a lot of man coverage, so this doesn't always open up gaping holes in the middle of the field, but cutbacks and fakes almost always caught the linebackers off guard.

Defensive ends. As expected, those the gaudy sack numbers from the defensive ends are due to an aggressive pass rush. On passing downs, the defensive ends run directly uphill, openly a lot of running lanes for quarterbacks. Harris wasn't able to take advantage of it, but I have no doubt that Denard/Al Borges will.

Contain the rollout. The one thing that the Hokie defensive ends do really well is contain the rollout on play action. If Michigan uses play action from under center, Denard will have a defensive end directly in his face:

Post-snap

Next

This ended up being a handoff, but the VT defense was prepared for the rollout. If they're gameplanning like this for Jacory Harris, they will be gameplanning like this for Denard.

Defensive tackles. Soft. They were put on skates most of the game. Michigan's offensive line should manhandle these guys.

Safeties. These guys are aggressive. On handoffs, they come directly downhill to make tackles. There's no hesitation in their game. They may be susceptible to play action. More importantly, they were really susceptible to trick plays, the likes of which Miami ran against them a few times. Given Vincent Smith's, urm, throwing abilities, that might be something Borges brings back for this game.

Offense
Formation. I was wrong yesterday when I said that the teams plays primarily under center. Most of the game, the Hokies were in the shotgun with three and four receivers. They rarely used fullbacks, both in the shotgun and under center. There were occasional H-backs, but for the most part, this was a shotgun, one-back set with three or four wide receivers and/or a tight end.

Power running. The Hokies use a lot of power running schemes, which means pulling linemen. They frequently used the pin and pull (usually from under center) that Michigan deployed with little success this year. They were a little more successful than Michigan was, but not that much more. The offensive line wasn't great at zone or power blocking, and weren't able to create a ton of lanes to run through.

Option running. However, the Hokies used the inverted veer a lot in this game. Lumbering QB Logan Thomas was able to gain a whole ton of yards on the inverted veer. It was, however, the only real option play they ran all game. They used it frequently in the red zone and a few times elsewhere, but rarely if ever did they use any other zone read play. The only other option running play that I can remember distinctly is a speed option that was usually at least moderately successful. I hold my position: Thomas is not much of a running threat. He was used a few different times on fourth and short on quarterback sneaks. Mike Martin and Co. are begging for this.

Ball security. This probably isn't a trend, but Thomas had a lot of trouble with ball security. He bobbled and fumbled one snap and failed to tuck the ball when he was pressured on another play and fumbled it. There was also another poor snap during the game that had to be recovered. I don't know if these are consistent problems, but they certainly were during this game.

Checkdowns. Thomas is a smart passer. When Miami goes into a prevent shell, he frequently found his running back coming out of the backfield. Virginia Tech looked to use their running backs frequently to chip block blitzers/rushers and then head out to the flats for checkdown passes. If Michigan doesn't assign someone to the VT running backs, this could get ugly. I'm worried about Kenny Demens and Desmond Morgan in coverage.

Obligatory slobbering Mattison post

Late in the game against Iowa, Greg Mattison unveiled a pre-snap defensive alignment and blitz package that was similar to the one that produced the late Notre Dame touchdown. Michigan overwhelms the line of scrimmage with defenders and drops most of them into coverage, generally rushing only four defenders. The difference between the Iowa formation and the ND formation was the alignment of Mike Martin who, instead of lining up in the nose tackle position, lines up outside of the offensive tackle--Desmond Morgan instead lines up as the "nose tackle".

Against Illinois, Mattison went insane. Or rather, he put on display his brand of mad genius. Not only did Mattison dial up that pre-snap alignment six different times in the game, he showed just how deep his playbook goes by calling five (!) different plays from it, using a combination of zone and man coverage. Doing a Picture Page post for each one is probably redundant, so what follows are diagrams of the five different plays Michigan showed from that formation in addition to the game situation.

The first time Michigan showed the alignment, Illinois was in 3rd and 10 in the first quarter. This is the most coverage-heavy variation of the play Michigan showed. As you can see, Martin is bounced outside the Illinois tight end. Martin, along with Van Bergen, Roh, and Ryan will be the four rushers while the rest of the defense drops off into zone coverage. Hilariously, Ron Zook or Nathan Sheelhaase checked to a running play when Michigan showed this formation. My guess is that Scheelhaase was coached during the previous week to check to a run when Michigan showed this alignment because it was a zone blitz that would be susceptible to a run. But this was 3rd and 10 and Illinois came up obviously short.

The second time Michigan showed the formation, Illinois was once again in 3rd and 10. The biggest change is having all of Michigan's defenders play man coverage against Illinois' eligible receivers rather than drop into zone coverage. However, Ryan and Morgan will still drop into underneath zones. Meanwhile, on the strongside of the play, Van Bergen, Kovacs, and Martin are running the stunt formation that Michigan used to great effect against Western Michigan early in the season. Though this doesn't produce a sack, Scheelhaase makes an errant throw with pressure in his face and the defense gets off the field.

Third and long? Get Mattisoned

Readers of the blog will know that I've been enamored with Greg Mattison all year. Aside from the obvious, tangible gains in performance, Mattison brought with him NFL blitzing schemes that I had been clamoring for during Greg Robinson's disastrous experiment with an "aggressive, blitzing" 3-3-5 defense. Early in the season, Mattison showed more than a few zone blitzes that had me really excited for the rest of the season, but as games rolled by, Michigan lacked the kind of defensive flare that got me excited. Finally, with Iowa in a 3rd and 16, Mattison unveiled a seemingly hellacious blitz that earned Michigan a sack and more importantly, got them off the field in a critical situation.

The play:

The first thing you'll notice is that despite Michigan having players swarming the line of scrimmage, only four defenders actually rushed, while the rest dropped off into coverage. There are a few players not pictured, but things of note: Martin is in a two-point stance outside of Iowa's tight end, Courtney Avery and Frank Clark are lined up over Iowa's slot receiver, and Desmond Morgan is lined up as the "nose tackle". It is difficult to get a read as to two is and is not rushing.

As the ball is snapped, most of the defenders on the line of scrimmage drop into coverage. Morgan drops from the NT spot, and Martin and Kovacs each begin dropping into their respective coverage zones. Meanwhile, Clark, Demens, Roh, and Van Bergen are the four rushers.

As the play continues, it's clear that Michigan's coverage scheme is a basic cover-2 with five zone defenders underneath. But because Iowa needs 16 yards for a first down, Michigan is able to mix up who they send into coverage without the fear of a blown play.

Iowa's receivers are all running shallow crossing routes, which, if this is defended even remotely how it should be, will net a gain of no more than 5 to 8 yards. Here, you can see that Michigan's underneath defenders are all within arms length of an Iowa receiver, forcing Vandenberg to progress through his reads.

Since all of the Iowa receivers are covered, Vandenberg steps into the pocket where Roh is headed.

Boom, Mattisoned.

A few things of note:

This is a difficult playcall to make unless the opponent has 10+ yards to go for a first down. Sending players like Mike Martin into coverage is risky business if your opponent only needs a few yards to convert, but surprising QBs with a zone drop from linemen is a way to force an errant throw or make them check down to a different receiver. Here, with no one open, Vandenberg has to eat a sack.

The pre-snap alignment also goes a long way toward this result. Obviously having Morgan lined up in the nose tackle spot is a wonky alignment, but in my opinion, the most critical alignment prior to the snap is that of Troy Woolfolk. When a quarterback reads a defensive alignment before the snap, one of the key things they look for is the alignment of the safeties. If there's one deep safety, chances are the team is playing cover-1 or cover-3. If there are two deep safeties, they're likely playing cover-2 or quarters. However, on this play, Woolfolk is the only deep safety, but he will roll to one side of the field as JT Floyd drops into coverage as the second deep safety.