Thursday, November 5, 2009

Wha Happened addition

My brother who is good with numbers, pointed out that I'm not that good with numbers and flubbed something in Wha Happened?. Per him in an e-mail titled "you did that thing I hate":

You adjusted Forcier's numbers for dropped interceptions then compared them to unadjusted Threetidan numbers. Surely they had a couple of balls that were dropped, or at least they had 8,000 balls that, had they been thrown correctly, would've been intercepted.

The trend in online statisticating is to do some self correcting but sometimes the raw numbers are important, or at least they paint an important picture, and the picture being painted by the raw numbers-- that Forcier is way more accurate/safe than Threetidan-- seems to gel with, like, reality (what we've actually watched), an oft-forgotten aspect of statistics (that is, if someone developed an uber-metric for the NBA that said Kwame Brown was the best NBA player...well, their math might not be wrong but our eyes tell us that their model is).

This is a good point. It has been made and should be noted.


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