The Unlikelies
Offensive coordinator, Auburn
Malzahn's name has been tossed about in nearly every coaching search this year because of the massive success of Auburn and their lightspeed offense. On paper, he doesn't appear to be much: a high school coach until 2006, Malzahn has rocketed onto everyone's radar because of not only the design of his offense, but the speed at which it plays. He was recently offered the Vanderbilt head coaching job (as well as speaking with Maryland about their vacancy) but turned it down in favor of a huge raise ($1.3 million a year) to stick around at Auburn.
Track record: Not much of one. As I mentioned, he was a high school coach as recently as 2005, and has since had brief stints as the Arkansas and Tulsa offensive coordinators before landing at Auburn.
Excitement level: A-. Malzahn is the kind of guy that's going to get a head coaching job eventually and likely make the most of it, not unlike Rodriguez himself who bounced around as an offensive coordinator before turning West Virginia into a legitimate power. Would it be nice to get in on something like that at the ground floor with the schemes and personnel to keep Denard and company in Ann Arbor? Yes. Is it likely? Who knows.
Likelihood: D-. Malzahn has already turned down head coaching positions this year and seems content at Auburn. Unless he was waiting for a big name like Michigan to offer him--probably not--he's staying put.
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Head coach, TCU
Hot off the Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, Gary Patterson is the only name in the country as hot as Jim Harbaugh. Since 2001, Patterson has turned TCU into a perpetual contender with seven 10-win seasons and the aforementioned Rose Bowl win. A defensive specialist, TCU's defenses have been consistently ferocious under his lead. This year, they finished first in both scoring and total offense. He is 1-1 in BCS bowls and 6-4 in bowl games overall. Patterson would be the kind of coup that Rodriguez was three years ago.
Track record: Patterson has been coaching the defensive side of the ball since 1982, bouncing around as defensive coordinator, defensive backs coach, and linebacker coach at programs like UC Davis and Sonoma State. He ended up as defensive coordinator at TCU in 1998 and took over as head coach when Dennis Franchione took the head coaching job at Alabama. TCU has basically been a powerhouse since Patterson took over.
Excitement level: A+. Patterson would be the biggest coup of anyone in the coaching search. Year in and year out, he fields incredible defensive teams and his offenses are usually pretty potent. This would be a huge get for Michigan and would hopefully calm the masses in Ann Arbor.
Likelihood: D+. Patterson has the cachet that Michigan needs in a head coach unlike Malzahn. And you have to think that eventually he'll move on from the relatively small TCU stage onto a bigger program. Coming off the Rose Bowl win might make him either excited to leave or anxious to continue the momentum in the program. I'm betting on the latter.
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If Michigan weren't Michigan, Mike Leach might be in play here, but that's simply not an option. A black mark like his on the resume and you're not going to find yourself at the head of the Wolverines squad anytime soon. So....
The "Meh"s
Head coach, Northwestern
Fitzgerald's name has been tossed around by Brian at MGoBlog as well as by other reasonable outlets. Fitzgerald is young, runs a spread system, and has helped turn Northwestern into a nominal power in the Big Ten (teams don't like playing them, anyway). Fitzgerald is working with the same academic hindrance that Harbaugh is at Stanford, so the team's success is somewhat amplified. He is, however, coaching successfully--and by all appearances, happily--at his own alma mater and hasn't made any rumblings about leaving. Fitzgerald would be an odd hire: a middling, in-conference coach that would be a distinct downgrade from Rodriguez. Pickings are slim, however, and so his name gets tossed onto the heap.
Track record: Fitzgerald was in the NFL as recently as 1997, so he obviously doesn't have much of a record to speak of. He spent time as a linebackers coach at some smaller schools until winding up at Northwestern in 2001 and taking over the head coaching position in 2006. Since then, his record has been, well, unimpressive, with his best season a 9-4 stint in 2008 that ended in an Alamo Bowl loss to Missouri in overtime.
Excitement level: C-. Fitzgerald is an unimpressive coach whose biggest attribute is his age. Otherwise, he brings little besides the potential to keep Denard on campus.
Likelihood: D. Fitzgerald seems content at his alma mater and Michigan has no real incentive to hire him.
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Head coach, San Diego State
Hoke may be the most likely of all the candidates listed here to actually get the job. He spent 1995-2002 as the defensive line coach under Lloyd Carr, making him a big draw for some of the alumni and a terrifying prospect for anyone who doesn't want to see a Carr descendant return to the throne. When Michigan was going through this same song and dance three years ago, MGoBlog profiled Hoke and concluded thus:
Potential Catches: Potential "catches"? The whole damn thing is one big catch! Even in the realm of people who Michigan would approach after getting turned down by everyone -- EVERYONE -- there are vastly preferable candidates: Ron English. Mike Trgovic. Glen Mason. Jon Chait. Me. The Golden Retriever from "Air Bud: Golden Receiver." Mussolini, who is dead. Dick Vitale. Sigourney Weaver. Richard Nixon's penis. Sigourney Weaver's penis. [Ed. Lol, remember when Brian wasn't a big time star and could say stuff like this?] All of these people and organs don't have a track record that suggests they are a below average MAC coach. It is in this way they are superior to Brady Hoke.Since then, Hoke has taken over as the head coach of San Diego State where he's led them to 4-8 and 9-4 records. He also had a 12-0 Ball State season in the mix there.
Track record: MGoBlog(.blogspot.com) explains most of it, sans the San Diego State stuff. Regardless, Hoke has had very little in the way of tangible success even at MAC schools and would appear to be an option only because he's pals with Lloyd Carr who apparently still runs things at Michigan.
Excitement level: D-. Honestly, I don't know a lot about Hoke aside from what you can glean from his end-of-season records. That and MGoBlog's explosive hate for him.
Likelihood: B. Hoke seems, like I mentioned, the most likely candidate right now if Harbaugh is off the table. He has the pro-style pedigree that the alumni have been clamoring for and the Old Michigan ties that would appease the people with the money. This does not, however, seem like a reasonable option for a successful football program.
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The Out of Nowhere
Previously: Head coach, Denver Broncos
I started joking earlier about Josh McDaniels being a candidate yesterday, and while he might not be in terms of the administration, his experience, cachet, and skills seem to jive with what Michigan is looking for. McDaniels began his coaching career as a graduate assistant under Nick Saban at Michigan State, so he's at least slightly familiar with the region and conference. After a year there, he went directly to the New England Patriots where he served in a number of positions, none more important than as offensive coordinator late in his tenure there (though he spent some time as quarterbacks coach as well). From there, McDaniels was hired as the head coach of the Denver Broncos and had a promising season in 2009 before falling apart and a wreck of a season in 2010 that was headlined by a bunch of quarterbacks (including Tim Tebow) that have no business starting in the NFL.
Track record: Covered above, really. McDaniels has NFL experience, which is important to a lot of people, and a season in the Big Ten as a graduate assistant. He also spent time with the Golden Boy in New England.
Excitement level: B+. McDaniels has the brand name that people are interested in and a record of wild success as the offensive coordinator in New England (largely because of Tom Brady, but still...). Not to mention that McDaniels is the guy in the Broncos organization that really pushed to draft Tebow in the first round, implying that he's interested in the spread offense and college sensibilities.
Likelihood: C-. McDaniels has the name and NFL experience but little else that the administration is looking for out of their next coach. He would be an interesting hire and someone who is almost certainly looking to get back on the field, but ultimately, he probably won't end up in Ann Arbor.
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If you're saying to yourself, "Who else is there?", you're not alone. There's not much. So barring something miraculous with Harbaugh or a coup the likes of which we saw three years ago (Gary Patterson?), Michigan is in a tough spot.
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