2nd and 21? No problem

Going into this game, I thought that any time Michigan got Penn State in a long-yardage situation, it would almost certainly end up in a Michigan stop. PSU was starting a walk-on quarterback and Michigan's defense couldn't be that bad. Well, I was wrong. On 2nd and 21 in the first quarter, Michigan failed miserably in every single regard and gave up a wide open reception against two vertical receivers while playing cover-3. There's no way to watch this play and think of it as anything other than a complete and utter failing by the defensive coaching staff. There are so many fundamental mistakes in this play that it's difficult to image this team has ever practiced together. Masochism:

As I mentioned, it's 2nd and 21 after a Michigan sack. Michigan is showing a cover-3 look with a three-man rush and five underneath defenders. Penn State comes out with three receivers in an I-formation. They'll run play action, send their wide receivers down the field, and drag the slot receiver across the formation. James Rogers, Ray Vinopal, and JT Floyd will split the field into deep thirds. In what is very likely a passing down, Michigan has essentially eight men in the box.

Penn State runs play action. You can see Michigan's underneath defenders are all frozen in place, and all of which are between the hashes (!!). PSU's outside receivers are running straight downfield and the slot receiver is starting to come across the formation. While Michigan is susceptible to an easy 10-yard hitch route on this play, that's actually what they're hoping for: force PSU into a third and long and look for a stop then. This is where things get really ugly though.

On what is now obviously a passing down, Michigan's underneath defenders are still all in the box and none is deeper than four yards from the line of scrimmage. PSU is in a max protect set and has seven players blocking three Michigan defenders. To make matters worse, Kovacs and Gordon are both staring aimlessly into the flats where there's absolutely no PSU players. Michigan's linebackers are within five yards of one another, and all three are guarding the slot receiver dragging across the field.

At this point, Kovacs realizes how poorly he's executed this play and has turned his head away from the quarterback to try and catch up with the outside receiver. Michigan's linebackers are literally running into each other and covering no one (What's happening here?). Michigan's underneath defenders are all still essentially inside the hash marks and none of them are deeper than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. McGloin has all day to throw because, well, seven blockers against three rushers won't ever get to the quarterback.

The ball is released (in red) and three of the five underneath defenders have now gotten good depth--the problem is they should have gotten this deep shortly after the ball was snapped. Instead, they're terribly out of position and no where near any of PSU's receivers. Then...

...there is a wide open PSU receiver just past the sticks with the closest Michigan defender 10 yards away. You might be asking yourself, "How did that guy get so open on a two-receiver route against cover-3?" Let's look:

Floyd is in pretty good position as the deep safety. Despite not having any underneath help because his underneath defenders are woefully out of position, he's keeping the play in front of him and in position to force the play toward his help defense (Ray Vinopal in the deep middle of the field). Then...

...the PSU receiver takes one stop toward the inside of the field and then breaks to the outside. Floyd immediately turns his back on the play to run with the receiver to the inside, despite having help defense toward the middle of the field. By the time Floyd gets his head turned around, the receiver has settled into a completely vacated zone 22 yards down the field and makes the first down catch.

Absolutely everyone involved in this play is to blame, but almost all of it has to fall on Greg Robinson. These players have absolutely no idea what they're doing here. The underneath defenders get no depth. Floyd doesn't know where his help defense is and once again shows how poor his technique is (like on those wide-open slants against Iowa) by turning away from the play. I mean, this is 2nd and 21 against a walk-on quarterback in the second drive of his first career start. How does this happen?

You can say that the players didn't execute here, and that you can't blame this on Robinson when we don't know exactly how they were coached, but the massive amount of basic error is unfathomable for a team in its 8th game of the season, regardless of whether or not these are freshmen or seniors. I honestly don't know how a defense can be this clueless. No one on the field appears to know where they're supposed to be or how they're supposed to defend this. When this play was taught, what exactly did Robinson see that made him think, "Yes, that will work"? This is not a complex play with pattern reading or man coverage or stunts. This is a three-man rush with five underneath defenders and three deep safeties. Penn State sends only three receivers. And this isn't even one of those broken plays where defenses are forced to cover for too long. PSU's receiver ran 22 yards, stopped, and caught the football.

There's no way to watch this and conclude anything other than massive failing on the behalf of the coaching staff and that Michigan has the worst defense in the country. 2009 looms.

Penn State: Where Greg Robinson's schemes don't work

The real story is that Greg Robinson's defensive schemes do not work. No longer is this a question of defensive talent or improper personnel. No, sadly, this is far more systematic: Greg Robinson's schemes Do Not Work....

Play after play (and now game after game), teams are running quick slants and seven-yard hitch routes and absolutely shredding Michigan's defense. And it's not that the defense looks athletically overmatched. They look unprepared and poorly coached. With one of the most potent offenses in the country and the Heisman front runner manning the ship, Michigan's eventual 7-5 or 6-6 finish will fall squarely on Robinson's shoulders. I'm not usually quick to call for peoples' heads, but unless there is drastic improvement in the coming games, consider this my desire to see Robinson canned as soon as possible.

That was the intro to my Indiana game column. In the following weeks, I mitigated those statements somewhat, saying that Michigan's insistence on using zone coverage on every play was making their defense too predictable, and killing its defensive performance. Then, on third and long against Penn State, Greg Robinson dialed up man coverage that forced Cam Gordon to cover a slot receiver running a wheel route and had Cullen Christian sitting back as a deep safety. Penn State's all-world quarterback Matt McGloin threw a pitch-and-catch completion to said slot receiver for a big gain because Gordon was no where near fast or agile enough to cover him, and the player that may have been able to was 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Greg Robinson's schemes Do Not Work.

There's no more sugar coating it: Michigan has the worst defense in the FBS. This is Rich Rodriguez's fault for not recruiting good football players. And then not retaining the ones that may have become good. This is Robinson's fault for being an awful coach. This is the players' faults for saying things like, "We're improving every week and getting better in practice" and then actually believing it. To say this defense has regressed is to lie to yourself: they were never good. They were shredded by UMass and a bad Indiana team. They let an awful Notre Dame squad march up and down the field on them with backup quarterbacks. They can't force turnovers. They can't play zone. They can't play man. This is a collection of mediocre-at-best players, performing well below expectations thanks to their coaching staff.

Michigan's season is about to crumble and turn into the same flaming mess that we saw in 2009 and it will be explicitly Greg Robinson's fault, and consequently Rodriguez's for hiring him. Rich Rodriguez will now very likely be fired at the end of this season despite having one of the best offenses in the entire country. And it's because on 2nd and 21, Matt McGloin has wide open receivers. And on third and 10, Michigan allows a walk-on quarterback to scramble for 11 yards. There is no future for this program, which seems inconceivable if all you watch is the offense.

Bullets

• Poor Denard Robinson. That kid has put this crappy Michigan team on his back week after week to no avail. What does it feel like to put up 380 yards of offense and 4 touchdowns and still never even be competitive? Speaking of which, look at these two stat lines:


• 108/166, 1,509, 10TD/5INT; 164 carries, 1,287, 12TD
• 108/162, 1,573, 15TD/5INT; 168 carries, 1,122, 14TD

The first is Denard's. The second is Cam Newton, who everyone is considering the far-and-away leader in the Heisman race. If Michigan's defense was even remotely functional, this would be a two-horse race. Instead, Denard is an afterthought.
• Did Michigan even prepare for Penn State in the two weeks they had to do so? Michigan's defense was so inept that this is actually a question that needs to be asked.
• Matt McGloin's stat line: 17/28, 250 yards (8.9 YPA), 1 TD. Not once did McGloin make a bad throw that was in danger of being intercepted because he had all day to sit in the pocket and make reads, and because Michigan's defense can't cover anyone. McGloin is not a good quarterback. This stat line is a referendum against every single player and coach on this defense. I'm sick of hearing, "We weren't getting off blocks" or "It was one thing here, and one thing there". No, this is an abhorrent defense that is incapable of stopping anyone. Stop making excuses: either show some form of competency or get off the field. This is an embarrassment.
• Michigan is now a clear underdog to Illinois, whose freshman quarterback (with worse throwing mechanics than Terrelle Pryor and with half the athleticism) is going to demolish Michigan's defense. And beating Purdue is probably iffy. If anyone thought that Wisconsin or Ohio State were even remotely within reach, they've changed their mind now. Michigan will be lucky to finish this season 6-6.

PSU game column note

My PSU game column will be a little late today. I was too disheartened to write anything last night, so I'll have to do it later today.

Penn State preview

After the transition from Lloyd Carr to Rich Rodriguez took place, Michigan lost its starting quarterback in Ryan Mallett and was stuck with the platoon of Nick Sheridan and Stephen Threet. The dearth of talent was understandable: Rodriguez brought with him a completely different style that didn't fit the players Carr had recruited. But the fact that Penn State, with the longest reigning head coach in the history of college football is facing this kind of quarterback crisis is incomprehensible. Tomorrow, PSU will start a redshirt sophomore walk-on at quarterback. Despite the program's longevity and stability, Nick Sheridan will be starting for Penn State.

But it's not like PSU has been very good this year anyway. To the numbers:

Michigan Defense Offense Passing 117th nationally 296.29 YPG 39th nationally 250.43 YPG Rushing 54th nationally 144.71 YPG 7th nationally 281.57 YPG Scoring 80th nationally 28.43 PPG 17th nationally 36.00 PPG

Penn State Defense Offense Passing 29th nationally 187.86 YPG 71st nationally 208.71 YPG Rushing 52nd nationally 143.86 YPG 86th nationally 128.71 YPG Scoring 22nd nationally 18.43 PPG 99th nationally 20.29 PPG

Not exactly the kind of numbers you'd expect from PSU, especially after the last three years of relative dominance alongside Ohio State in the Big Ten. PSU's offensive numbers are atrocious. Not only has the passing game being non-existent (true freshman QB Robert Bolden has been exactly that: a true freshman), but Evan Royster is averaging less than 70 yards per game. This is not the Penn State you know.

After a concussion to Bolden last week, walk-on sophomore Matt McGloin is taking over the starting quarterback role, inexplicably surpassing one-time Michigan recruit true sophomore Kevin Newsome. McGloin's first action all season was last week where he went 6/13 for 76 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT... against Minnesota. He only threw two passes last year, both incomplete. McGloin is a bad quarterback as you'd expect a walk-on to be, making tomorrow's game one in which Michigan's defense must succeed. If McGloin is able to get any sort of rhythm against Michigan's wretched defense, it's a referendum against every player on Michigan's D. (As an aside, Newsome, who has now been surpassed by a walk-on, was a Michigan commit who would've taken the place of Denard Robinson had he not decommitted. I'm happy with how Michigan fared here. Aren't you?)

PSU's defense isn't even the dominating unit that they have been in years past. But at least there's an explanation for that: PSU has been hit as hard, if not harder, than any program in the country by injuries. Not only should Michigan be able to stop PSU's inept offense, but the thin, injured defense of PSU should be porous, enabling Denard Robinson to return to the form we saw earlier in the year. Again: This is not the Penn State you know.

Prediction
This is, no questions asked, a must-win game for Michigan and Rich Rodriguez. Penn State's defense isn't very good and their offense may be the worst in the Big Ten. If PSU is able to put up the 500 yards and 24+ points that seemingly everyone can against Michigan, Rodriguez's job is in serious jeopardy. Penn State's offense is essentially Michigan's defense, except PSU is starting a sophomore walk-on quarterback, who has never started a game and has thrown 15 passes in his collegiate career. Michigan will completely shut down PSU's offense, generate a few turnovers, and show very few new defensive looks. With McGloin's inexperience and PSU's lackluster team, Greg Robinson will not waste new, effective defensive fronts against a team that Michigan should be able to shut down.

Any time Michigan gets a negative play (sack or penalty), expect them to get the ball back. PSU lacks the talent at quarterback to convert 3rd and long, and their run offense isn't strong enough to carry the team out of long-yardage situations. With a weak offensive line, look for Mike Martin to do a lot of damage and get to McGloin at least once. Otherwise, Michigan will probably bring more pressure than they have earlier in the year. Getting to McGloin and not allowing him to sit in the pocket will drastically increase the chance of a bad throw that results in an incompletion or interception.

Offensively, it's going to be much of the same. Michigan is going to primarily run at PSU's depleted defensive line and will do a lot of damage. Denard is probably going to break a few different runs of 20+ yards as he'll be able to get to the second level with relative ease. Expect Michigan's running backs to have a good day as well. With the bye week allowing Mike Shaw to get healthy again and, presumably, PSU forcing Denard to hand the ball of on the zone-read, Michigan should have an advantage anywhere they play. Expect Michigan to average 6.0 yards per carry against PSU.

Through the air, Denard should have a bounceback game. After two shaky performances against MSU and Iowa, due at least in some part because of a sore shoulder that should be (mostly) healed after the week off, Denard will be able to find open receivers as PSU has to overcompensate for being gashed on the ground.  Denard will finish the game without throwing a pick and will stop grounding a lot of those 7-yard hitch routes that he's been having trouble with the last two games.

As always, winning the turnover battle will be key. This is the first week in the last three that Michigan comes out on top here. McGloin throws two or three interceptions and we'll also see appearances by Kevin Newsome to try and keep Michigan's defense honest. The PSU offense should be in serious trouble, even against an awful defense like Michigan's. When Michigan has the ball, expect them to move as fluidly as they have all year but without the turnovers that have plagued the team in the last few weeks. Denard will rush for significantly more than 100 yards and breaks at least one long TD run. Michigan should win this easily. Michigan 35-17

Demens debate (cont.)

Ed. note: I had contemplated doing a Where are they now? post on the special teams, but we all know how that would end up. So I decided to surpass that section of the team. Read: offense, defense, coaching

MGoBlog posted its weekly Upon Further Review Errata this week, much of which was about Kenny Demens' starting debut against Iowa. In it, he addressed the Iowa touchdown that we both analyzed, but which I felt Demens should've come in for more criticism for his pass coverage. Specifically, he says,

On the other hand, BWS took another look at the National Lampoon's Zone Vacation picture pages and suggested the blame was largely on Demens:

I disagree somewhat. Asking a middle linebacker to cover a receiver moving into the flat is either an incoherent defense that will get you killed long term or one of those pattern reading systems that require a ton of drilling. By appearances (and necessity) Michigan does not run fancy stuff; this was three-deep zone with four underneath defenders, except one of them was way, way out of his zone. One of them was somewhat out of his zone....

...It is likely that Demens wasn't supposed to re-route the TE because he wasn't going vertical, and he did drag out of his zone. The reason that's a fifteen-yard error instead of five isn't on him. I should have given him a –1; Avery still is the primary culprit IME.

This still seems like Brian making a few excuses for Demens. If Demens is relieved of the responsibility of guarding the receiver that runs directly through his zone, what exactly is his responsibility on this play? While I agree with Brian that having Demens cover a wide receiver is a bad idea, it is explicitly his job here. Except that he doesn't even have to "cover" the receiver so much as carry him through the zone that he has clearly vacated. If Demens is able to stick with this receiver even for a few yards in his zone, it's likely that Roh's pass rush gets to Stanzi and this is an incomplete pass, or at the very least, Demens is in position to make the tackle. It's easy to say things like "One of them was somewhat out of his zone" about Demens' performance here, but his poor positioning is what turned this play from an incompletion or catch and immediate tackle into a play that saw a lot of yards after the catch.

As to how far out of his zone Avery is: I still contend that Avery is not nearly as out of position as other people say. We can all agree that he has a responsibility to re-route the slot receiver. With two vertical routes heading at one safety, without that bump, this is almost certainly a completion in the end zone (or there will at least be an open receiver). However, if Avery plays at the same depth as the linebackers, there's a huge hole between the three deep safeties and the underneath defenders. The outside receiver is running a skinny post between two safeties, and it appears that the slot receiver is running a square in at the sticks. The slot receiver would be 10 yards from the closest defender if Avery hadn't carried him as far as he had. Furthermore, Avery runs no further than the first down marker, which I'm fairly certain is the depth of his zone. If he had turned back toward the sideline, rather than making a 360-degree turn back to the play, he's in perfect position to make the tackle. Whether or not he makes that tackle is beside the point.

But returning to the assertion that Demens shouldn't be forced to cover a dragging receiver, this is another bullet in my Play Man Coverage gun. With Michigan's insistence on playing zone, team's can find soft spots and mismatches on almost every play. Asking our depleted linebacker core to make plays like this is, as Brian said,  "an incoherent defense that will get you killed long term". What exactly about this year's defense doesn't make you think exactly that? Playing so much zone coverage necessitates that Michigan's linebackers play a lot of pass coverage and stick with a lot of receivers (see: Mouton's team-leading interceptions or Craig Roh attempts at coverage). I still contend that these schemes are flawed and the defensive results we've seen this year should be credited as much to Robinson's playcalling as they are to the lack of talent. But in the system that Michigan is currently playing, Demens completely missed his responsibility and Avery stumbled around helplessly like a true freshman often does.