Ohio State: Where whatever

Michigan's season is not so mercifully over. There were highs and lows and eventually, Michigan ended up about as good as everyone thought they would: 7-5 with a terrible defense and a great offense. No one expected the offense to be quite this prolific or the defense to be quite this bad, but Michigan fared about exactly as they should have.

Saturday's game, though pretty demoralizing, shouldn't change anyone's opinion on Rich Rodriguez. Three of Michigan's five losses came against one-loss, BCS top-10 teams. One came on the road against a resurgent Penn State team and the other against a middle-of-the-road Iowa team.

Asking that Michigan be more competitive against Ohio State sort of misses the point. Were it not for a 170-pound Ray Vinpoal being a 170-pound true freshman that gets trucked by 200-pound junior running backs despite being in perfect position, Ohio State averaged 3.8 YPC. Terrelle Pryor looked, well, like Pryor, and not some manfreak that the defense turned him into. Michigan's four-man defensive line was functional. The offense only stopped when it killed itself (which was frequent). It was a lack of execution and inexperience that made this game uncompetitive, not schemes, raw talent, or fluke plays. Ohio State is basically perfection in terms of doing what they're trained to do. Michigan isn't yet. Whether that's a function of starting mostly underclassmen or poor coaching is a debate, but I'd be willing to bet it's 85% inexperience and 15% coaching.

I have very little else to say on this topic right now and am in the middle of a conference for work, so content on the game will be scarce until Thursday or Friday.

Bullets

• I feel at least somewhat confident saying this: Greg Robinson will be your defensive coordinator next year. It won't make you want to die. I think there's been enough improvement on the defensive side of the ball in the last few weeks that Robinson, working at the talent disadvantage he is, may be given another shot.
• Roy Roundtree will be wearing #12 next year.
• Vincent Smith will be your starter in the bowl game and 2011.
• The defense looked good in this game until it was clear that all of the momentum was going Ohio State's way. Michigan failed to score in the red zone twice early, and that's when it all started going downhill. You just can't give a team like Ohio State more chances than they already have.
• Denard finally scrambled and it was awesome. Except when he fumbled and it wasn't.

Swallowing Kenny Demens addition

Today, MGoBlog Picture Paged a Wisconsin run demonstrating a flaw in the Michigan defensive formation:

by lining up his MLB just behind his nose tackle he dooms that guy to take one step to the playside, whereupon he is eaten by a guard who has no one lined up over him. Even if Michigan successfully plugs that hole they are crazy vulnerable to cutbacks and counters.

I don't think this is exactly right. The problem with the play is not necessarily that Demens is too close to the line of scrimmage, rather that Michigan's defensive numbers and zone coverage dictated not only a decent gain but a tackle by the safety.

MGoBlog's complaint is that Kenny Demens is lined up directly over Mike Martin and only two yards off the line of scrimmage. The bigger problem, however, is that Michigan is playing cover-3. Like Chris Brown of Smart Football likes to say, "football begins as arithmetic" (with depressing Michigan/Indiana tie-in!). Before this play even starts, Michigan is committing three deep safeties to an I-formation with two receivers--Courtney Avery, on the weakside of the play, is rolled down toward the line of scrimmage but because there are no receivers on his side of the field. Though it might look like more, Michigan is committing only six defenders to the box against seven Wisconsin blockers and a tailback. Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs are outside the box and covering flat zones (sort of, about which more later).

Important to note: on the strongside of play and inside the box, Michigan has four defenders (Martin, Roh, Ezeh, and Demens) versus four blockers (center, right guard, right tackle, and the fullback). The numbers are decidedly in Wisconsin's favor.

After the snap, the center and left guard double team Martin. The right guard is given a free release where Demens and Ezeh are attacking. Van Bergen is being double teamed by the left tackle and tight end. He gets sealed to the outside but understandably so. He has no shot here. There are no problems with Michigan's defense yet, but Jordan Kovacs standing with his hands on his knees becomes a huge problem in a minute.

Demens and Ezeh are running to the point of attack. The right guard, who was given a free release will be hit by Demens a yard past the line of scrimmage and Ezeh will attack the fullback.

This is where my understanding of this play varies from MGoBlog's. Brian argues that, were Demens further off the line of scrimmage, somehow, the offensive guard who was given a free release wouldn't find him or would miss his block. Frankly, that's wishful thinking. Demens plugging the line at the point of attack by taking on the offensive guard is actually the best possible scenario. Ezeh will be charged with stuffing the fullback, which will necessitate either a cutback or a bounceout. Structurally, Michigan is still sound.

The bigger issue with this play is that Michigan is playing zone coverage. Mouton and Kovacs are still frozen in place because they have to account for the pass. In Mouton's case, this is a function playing zone coverage and being assigned to the middle of the field. Kovacs, however, should be ripping down the line of scrimmage behind the offensive line right now. He can do this because Wisconsin didn't put any receivers on the weak side of the field allowing Avery to roll down and cover the overhang. So when the left guard releases his double team on Martin and starts to head upfield for Mouton...

...Kovacs needs to be rushing into the backfield to make the play on a cutback that has been forced by Ezeh and Demens stuffing the Wisconsin blockers at the line of scrimmage. Instead, Mouton has to take on an offensive guard, leaving the middle of the field open for Wisconsin:

Now look at Kovacs and Avery. What is Kovacs doing here? He's unblocked, isn't defending the overhang (that's Avery's job), and watching the play move away from him. If Kovacs had started attacking the backfield when he should have, this would've been a two yard loss. Michigan's defense is still sound if he misses: even a miss would necessitate a cut to where the play eventually goes, and Avery has overhang coverage. I think Kovacs just flat missed his assignment here and is frozen because he thinks he has a responsibility in the passing game (he doesn't as there are no weakside receivers and Avery has coverage on the weakside TE should he release).

Kovacs begins to attack the backside of the play when the ball is already beyond the line of scrimmage. Mouton has been successfully blocked. Avery, who was in overhang coverage is late getting back to the point of attack, which is OK because he needs to be behind the ball. And eventually Ray Vinopal will come downhill from the free safety spot to make the tackle.

The point of this is that it's not the alignment that's the problem. Moving Demens further from the line of scrimmage does not somehow remedy the fact that Wisconsin has a decided numbers advantage. Nor does it mean that he'll be able to read and react to a play that's designed specifically to flatten him. (What more could Demens do on this play from four yards deeper? Expecting him to completely shed a free-releasing offensive lineman is unrealistic and assumes that Michigan's players are supermen.) For this play to work, Wisconsin actually only had to block six of Michigan's defenders: Roh, Martin, and Van Bergen (all on the line), and Ezeh, Demens, and Mouton (the linebackers). Michigan essentially committed five players to the pass (the three deep safeties, along with Kovacs and Gordon at the Spur/Bandit positions). All of this despite the fact that Wisconsin had seven blockers.

This could have been remedied had Kovacs realized the shift in coverage when Wisconsin didn't put a receiver on his side of the field. But he failed to acknowledge it and instead completely took himself out of the play, acting as a redundancy overhang defender. So while I agree that this is probably an "incoherent defense", it's not the alignment of the linebackers on this play that causes the problem. Michigan is unwilling to test man coverage and, because of that, find themselves spread out and susceptible to the rush.

Floyd and the NCAA (unrelated)

Watching the Penn State game any more than I already have this week would end in unceremonious sepuku, which would usually be fine, but I'm more or less house sitting right now and I'd hate to ruin someone else's carpet. Instead, I'll touch on some of the odds and ends floating around this week.

NCAA'in
Like everyone with a clue had expected, the NCAA accepted Michigan's self-imposed penalties for the "major" violations. I don't have much to say about this besides, "well, duh" and other things that have been more eloquently expressed elsewhere. Michigan's crimes were minor in nature but major in name, and only surfaced because of an obvious agenda by the Free Press. Anyone trying to deny that anymore is of the same mind and probably still complains that Rich Rodriguez has a West Virginia accent.

Michigan had a press conference just now and David Brandon predictably dropped bombs on the Free Press,

We believe that a thorough investigation would show the allegations to be false and misleading...

There was nothing found that even remotely suggested that our players welfare, safety, or wellbeing was at risk.

which was basically Brandon giving the middle finger to the Free Press. The only bits of relevant information otherwise were that Michigan was given a third year of probation, and that 32 of the 130 practice hours Michigan will sacrifice have already been completed. Michigan plans on getting through these hours in 18 months rather than the 24 months they were allotted.

Now we can go back to being casually uncompetitive at football in peace.

Floyd and the depth chart
With the loss of JT Floyd for the season, Michigan now turns to three true freshmen to try and carry the secondary load. This may not be as harrowing as it sounds because Floyd hasn't been particularly effective and, well,

What exactly are we so afraid that the freshmen will do, fail to cover people and miss tackles? That's what we were getting with Floyd. And now we'll gain at least 30 yards a game back in facemask penalties. At least now we'll get to find out what we've got in this freshman group. It's sink or swim time.

My guess is that Courtney Avery is the first off the bench to replace Floyd. Aside from my general excitement about Avery in the face of his obvious coverage miscues, I don't know if anyone else has been taught the position. Michigan's secondary moves around a lot during games: corners drop to safety depth, they move into linebacker-type positions, and they play corner. But the concern is that left corner and right corner are not mirrors of one another. It has seemed like Avery has come in to replace Floyd and the platoon of Cullen Christian and Terrence Talbott have relieved James Rogers when he comes off the field. So starters of Avery and Rogers is what I'm anticipating with Rogers being replaced sometime in the game with one of the other freshmen. It's going to be terrifying.

The talent drop off from Floyd to the freshman should be basically zero, and this will give the young players a chance to really get their feet wet. The other bonus is that with the younger squad, Michigan will probably have to simplify its schemes in order to protect them, meaning the defense may very well find a formation and stick with it for most of the game. This would be a big step up from the mish-mash of formations that they brought out against Penn State.

Then again, Michigan's two corners and free safety are true freshman (or James Rogers. Their other safety is a sophomore walk-on. Their linebacker/safety hybrids are freshmen. So... Nathan Scheelhaase is going to pass the ball a lot.

"This is not a stack" addition

MGoBlog had a Picture Pages post today addressing the 3-3-5ness or lack thereof of Michigan's defense this year. As I rewatched the game, I saw similar problems but didn't quite know how to explain it. What I saw was Penn State frequently getting a blocking advantage with motion and designed cutbacks. That's beside the point, however, and I think Brian explains Michigan's schematic problems really well there. I did see one thing in his comparison to a similar WVU defense that he failed to mention--and it's something I actually loathe to bring up because this horse is dead and I'm tired of kicking it.

One of the reasons Michigan can't show this front is because they can't/won't play man defense. WVU is showing a six-man rush with man coverage on the receivers, the middle linebacker on the running back, and presumably, the safeties covering the tight ends if they release upfield (otherwise, they're just giving cover-2 help over the top).

One of the keys to this play, as Brian says,

At the snap six players attack the line, giving all but one WVU DL a one-on-one matchup

With Michigan's insistence on playing zone coverage, the linebackers/spurs/bandits are unable to attack like this because of play action. Since each player has a responsibility in the passing game, attacking the line of scrimmage aggressively on a hand off will open up gaping holes in play action. Michigan's linebackers have to wait until they're certain that the running back has the ball before they can attack the line of scrimmage, at which point, the offensive linemen have been given a free release to the second level. Not to mention that when the linebackers start flowing down the line, it creates gaps in zone coverage on the backside of the play, something that Penn State saw a lot of success on by sneaking tight ends and full backs into the flat.

So when Brian says things like,

Michigan is a passive three man line with guys you can easily single block (but get to double if you want) and linebackers who are living a nightmare.

it's largely because Michigan physically can't attack the line of scrimmage more aggressively while also requiring second-level defenders to be responsible for the passing game.

This, of course, comes back to the Read and React principle that you expect your players to be able to perform, because not all zone plays get gashed by halfback runs. However, with only a three-man defensive line, Michigan is giving up far too many free releases to the second level where, when players have had a chance to react to the play, they'are being blocked by free releasing linemen.

I brought up a similar concern after the Indiana game, when I started my man vs. zone tirade:

Rogers, Floyd, Avery, and Talbott can all cover for at least limited amounts of time (Avery might be the best cover corner on the team that's currently healthy, about which more this week). Never did they get blown off the line and completely lose coverage [Ed. Whoops, wrong here re: Floyd]. As such, Michigan can blitz more often. I think part of the reason Michigan hasn't blitzed as much as we'd all like to see is because, as porous as the zones are with eight defenders, they'd be even more open with five or six.

I was arguing for, essentially, the same as above: with the ability to cover receivers one-on-one, a defense has more opportunities and flexibility in the blitzing game. Michigan can't bring more than three or four blitzers--Michigan's "blitzes" are equivalent to a four-man defensive line--because they are terrified of being beaten in the passing game. As such, Michigan has settled for these three-man rushes in the hopes that the zones behind them will hold up, which they haven't.

This defense is broken and more bothersome, it appears that Robinson is fine with the status quo. This is the first week where people are actively coming after him rather than Rodriguez, who has taken the brunt of the media's force this year. If Robinson doesn't change anything this week against Illinois, Michigan will lose in the same fashion that they've been beaten the previous three weeks.

2nd and 21? No problem

Going into this game, I thought that any time Michigan got Penn State in a long-yardage situation, it would almost certainly end up in a Michigan stop. PSU was starting a walk-on quarterback and Michigan's defense couldn't be that bad. Well, I was wrong. On 2nd and 21 in the first quarter, Michigan failed miserably in every single regard and gave up a wide open reception against two vertical receivers while playing cover-3. There's no way to watch this play and think of it as anything other than a complete and utter failing by the defensive coaching staff. There are so many fundamental mistakes in this play that it's difficult to image this team has ever practiced together. Masochism:

As I mentioned, it's 2nd and 21 after a Michigan sack. Michigan is showing a cover-3 look with a three-man rush and five underneath defenders. Penn State comes out with three receivers in an I-formation. They'll run play action, send their wide receivers down the field, and drag the slot receiver across the formation. James Rogers, Ray Vinopal, and JT Floyd will split the field into deep thirds. In what is very likely a passing down, Michigan has essentially eight men in the box.

Penn State runs play action. You can see Michigan's underneath defenders are all frozen in place, and all of which are between the hashes (!!). PSU's outside receivers are running straight downfield and the slot receiver is starting to come across the formation. While Michigan is susceptible to an easy 10-yard hitch route on this play, that's actually what they're hoping for: force PSU into a third and long and look for a stop then. This is where things get really ugly though.

On what is now obviously a passing down, Michigan's underneath defenders are still all in the box and none is deeper than four yards from the line of scrimmage. PSU is in a max protect set and has seven players blocking three Michigan defenders. To make matters worse, Kovacs and Gordon are both staring aimlessly into the flats where there's absolutely no PSU players. Michigan's linebackers are within five yards of one another, and all three are guarding the slot receiver dragging across the field.

At this point, Kovacs realizes how poorly he's executed this play and has turned his head away from the quarterback to try and catch up with the outside receiver. Michigan's linebackers are literally running into each other and covering no one (What's happening here?). Michigan's underneath defenders are all still essentially inside the hash marks and none of them are deeper than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. McGloin has all day to throw because, well, seven blockers against three rushers won't ever get to the quarterback.

The ball is released (in red) and three of the five underneath defenders have now gotten good depth--the problem is they should have gotten this deep shortly after the ball was snapped. Instead, they're terribly out of position and no where near any of PSU's receivers. Then...

...there is a wide open PSU receiver just past the sticks with the closest Michigan defender 10 yards away. You might be asking yourself, "How did that guy get so open on a two-receiver route against cover-3?" Let's look:

Floyd is in pretty good position as the deep safety. Despite not having any underneath help because his underneath defenders are woefully out of position, he's keeping the play in front of him and in position to force the play toward his help defense (Ray Vinopal in the deep middle of the field). Then...

...the PSU receiver takes one stop toward the inside of the field and then breaks to the outside. Floyd immediately turns his back on the play to run with the receiver to the inside, despite having help defense toward the middle of the field. By the time Floyd gets his head turned around, the receiver has settled into a completely vacated zone 22 yards down the field and makes the first down catch.

Absolutely everyone involved in this play is to blame, but almost all of it has to fall on Greg Robinson. These players have absolutely no idea what they're doing here. The underneath defenders get no depth. Floyd doesn't know where his help defense is and once again shows how poor his technique is (like on those wide-open slants against Iowa) by turning away from the play. I mean, this is 2nd and 21 against a walk-on quarterback in the second drive of his first career start. How does this happen?

You can say that the players didn't execute here, and that you can't blame this on Robinson when we don't know exactly how they were coached, but the massive amount of basic error is unfathomable for a team in its 8th game of the season, regardless of whether or not these are freshmen or seniors. I honestly don't know how a defense can be this clueless. No one on the field appears to know where they're supposed to be or how they're supposed to defend this. When this play was taught, what exactly did Robinson see that made him think, "Yes, that will work"? This is not a complex play with pattern reading or man coverage or stunts. This is a three-man rush with five underneath defenders and three deep safeties. Penn State sends only three receivers. And this isn't even one of those broken plays where defenses are forced to cover for too long. PSU's receiver ran 22 yards, stopped, and caught the football.

There's no way to watch this and conclude anything other than massive failing on the behalf of the coaching staff and that Michigan has the worst defense in the country. 2009 looms.

Kenny Demens hype check

MGoBlog's defensive Upon Further Review against Iowa was overwhelmingly positive about the performance of Kenny Demens at middle linebacker. Demens may have actually played as well as the metrics there indicate--I don't know because I haven't gone back and watched him specifically yet--but I can't help but feel like Brian isn't a little Any Port in a Storm about the position. One such example comes on a play that MGoBlog broke down in which Iowa scored a touchdown largely because Courtney Avery did his Courtney Avery thing where he vacates zone in favor of carrying receivers too far. Of Demen's performance, he says:

Demens is fine here, I think. Mesh is tough on LBs in zone. Here he lets the receiver outside of him but he has to expect Avery will be there. He also knocks down the other guy running a drag, which is a bonus.

While I agree that Demens wasn't the main culprit on the touchdown, he was largely responsible for the blown coverage that led to the touchdown.

Michigan is in a 4-2-5 look playing cover-3. They rush four and drop the linebackers and the two corners into underneath zone coverage. Iowa is in a three-wide set with a tight end on the strong side of the field and one tailback. Iowa sends two vertical routes at Rogers on the strong side of the field, while the weakside receiver and tight end run crossing routes below the linebackers.

Right as the ball is snapped, you can see a problem with Demens' position in relation to the play. While Jonas Mouton is scanning the field and looking into the backfield, Demens has his back mostly turned to the weakside of the field. It's because of this positioning that Demens fails to see the crossing receiver until it's too late.

Demens comes up to re-route the tight end, which I don't think is his job. The tight end is very clearly dragging across the field and Demens has Mouton next to him to carry the tight end in the zone. Demens still hasn't seen the crossing receiver.

This is where you can see the difference in how Mouton and Demens defended this play. Mouton is on the balls of his toes, taking a step back as the tight end crosses into his zone. Demens, meanwhile is pushing the tight end to the ground. This is the first time that he sees the crossing wide receiver. Courtney Avery is still in good position right now and has effectively re-routed the slot receiver.

This is the "uh-oh" moment for all relevant parties. Avery who was in position in the last screen has decided that, rather than turn back to the quarterback, he'll keep his eyes on the slot receiver. Demens, meanwhile, is a statue as the weakside receiver runs right by him. A fairly conservative estimation for Demens' zone is the red spot on the field--it may even be further to the boundary as he was the strongside linebacker. As you can see, he's nowhere near it, and worse still, he's standing motionless. Avery is actually still in his zone, albeit fairly deep. The bigger problem with Avery is that he didn't turn around. Demens actually hasn't moved horizontally since the play started, and with Avery looking the wrong way, there's essentially an entire half of the field that's open. Stanzi sees this and makes an easy pass to a completely unguarded receiver.

This is how the play ends: The weakside receiver, still in the middle of Demens' zone, catches the ball completely unabated. Avery, meanwhile, has just not gotten his eyes back to the play and eventually slips trying to get back upfield. Avery wasn't in great position here, but he also wasn't in terrible position. If he hadn't fallen, he might've had a chance to make the play. Demens, on the other hand, has completely blown his assignment that would, even if Avery had played this perfectly, netted at least five or six yards.

What's especially disappointing is that, as you can see in the final screen, Craig Roh had gotten to Stanzi on the pass rush. Had Demens even feigned coverage here, it would've made Stanzi hold onto the ball longer and either make a poor throw or eat the sack.

I'm going to go back and watch the game to see how well Demens did overall. I'm fairly certain he did better than Ezeh (something that the Michigan blogosphere is mostly in agreement about), but I think MGoBlog's UFR probably overlooked a few plays like this out of sheer excitement and hope.

Why you shouldn't be encouraged by 383 yards

After reading through the myriad game recaps yesterday, something that The Wolverine Blog said stuck out in my mind:

Sometimes I think I’d be able to make a better assessment of this team if I didn’t watch the games... I’d even be encouraged by the defense, which faced a senior quarterback and a very good pair of receivers and allowed under 400 yards — that would qualify as progress this season...

Watching the game, however, it’s tough not to dwell on the bad penalties, shanked kicks, turnovers, and far-too-easy Hawkeye passing touchdowns and think this team is just spinning its wheels, especially when placed in direct contrast with an Iowa team that played mistake-free football and capitalized on Michigan’s mistakes time and again.

When you look at the box score, Michigan dominated several offensive categories (522 total yards vs. 383 total yards, 4.5 YPC vs. 3.8 YPC) and were close in most others (10.3 YPA for Iowa vs. 7.6 YPA for Michigan). And at face value, that's a pretty significant upgrade from the Indiana, Michigan State, and even UMass contests. But for those actually watching the game, the defensive performance looked just as soul crushing as it had earlier in the year. There's only one reason the numbers don't agree: field position.

Iowa starting field position	Result
Iowa 38	7 yards, punt
Iowa 44	5 yards, punt
Iowa 16	84 yards, TD
Mich 49	49 yards, TD
Mich 48	48 yards, TD
Iowa 1	1 yard, End of half
Iowa 29	7 yards, punt
Iowa 14	4 yards, punt
Iowa 37	63 yards, TD
Iowa 40	60 yards TD
Iowa 20	5 yards, punt
Iowa 40	60 yards, FG
Mich 43	End of game

Surely penalties and the four turnovers Michigan coughed up also played a big role in the difference between total yardage gained and points scored, but more importantly, Iowa just didn't have to go as far to score. The chart on the right is Iowa's starting field position and the result of the ensuing drive. If you exclude the two "drives" to end the first half and the game, Iowa's average starting field position was at their own 34 yard line. Michigan's average starting field position, meanwhile, was at their own 23 yard line.

While that 11 yards may not seem like a ton, extrapolated over the course of a game (and especially one in which each team saw double digit possessions), that amount of yardage really adds up. For example, Iowa had 11 real drives, meaning that the 11-yard difference in field position equaled 121 yards difference. And when you add that in to Iowa's 383 total yards on the game, that gives them 504 yards, a mere 18 short of Michigan's total.

This is obviously not an exact science. You can't just add those yards onto Iowa's total and come out with Why It All Happened, least of all because that extra yardage could've changed the complexion of the drive--Michigan might've forced a stop. But given that Stanzi completed 70.8% of his passes and what we know about the Michigan defense, it's safe to say that moving Iowa back 11 yards on each possession likely wouldn't have changed the outcome of any of those drives. It may seem encouraging that Michigan forced 5 punts on the 11 drives, but they also forced 4 punts on 10 Michigan State drives. The point being, there wasn't really anything about the Iowa game that should inspire confidence in this defense.

Fortunately, the difference in field position has no bearing on how well Michigan was able to move the ball offensively. It was clear that Michigan was marching up and down the field against Iowa and were it not for turnovers, the score likely would've been much different, and may have even swung in Michigan's favor. Then again, without those same turnovers, Iowa's advantage in field position shrinks, they probably hold onto the ball longer, rack up a lot more yardage, and lower the amount of possessions by each team, all of which is to say that Michigan was decidedly behind the 8-ball in this game. And for as much as we'd all like to use this game as a stepping stone for the defense, it's really difficult to look at the numbers and do so. This defense is sunk.

MSU man vs. zone comparison

After the Indiana game, I started yelling for a lot more man coverage. Teams (UMass and Indiana specifically) had been picking apart Michigan's zones and Greg Robinson's schemes looked less than sound. I went so far as to say,

No longer is this a question of defensive talent or improper personnel. No, sadly, this is far more systematic: Greg Robinson's schemes Do Not Work.

And I stick by that to an extent. It's not necessarily that his schemes don't work; it's that they're predictable and without variation they don't work. Until the MSU game, Michigan basically showed one look on defense with sparse blitzes and it showed up on the stat sheet.

I was overjoyed, then, when I saw Michigan playing a lot more man coverage against MSU. And then the game ended and I wasn't sure if it was a good idea. So like the Indiana game, I rewatched the game and noted each time that Michigan played man coverage against MSU. (I watched it a lot more closely this week. Last week's breakdown included a few zone plays that I misidentified and talked about here. This also includes man coverage against the run as I suspected that at least one of those long MSU running plays was man coverage.)

In sum, Michigan played man coverage 24 times in the game. Against the coverage, MSU called 9 passing plays and 15 rushing plays. They gained 143 yards on the 22 plays that counted (one called dead on false start and one had a holding penalty), which amounts to 6.5 yards per play (MSU averaged 7.88 yards per play in total). After the break is a chart with every play on it (except for the very end of the game when they were rushing for 3 yards per play and running out the clock).

Man coverage example vs. Indiana

As I continue my crusade to see more man coverage from the Michigan defense, I want to take a look at a specific play from the Indiana game on which Michigan was successful running it and why it was successful.

Indiana is in a three-wide pistol look with with a half back and H-back in the game. Michigan is in their base formation with base personnel. Michigan is going to play straight man coverage with cover-2 safety help over the top. Jordan Kovcas is covering the weakside deep half and Cam Gordon is over the strongside deep half. JT Floyd and James Rogers are covering the wide receivers with Rogers playing six yards off the line of scrimmage and Floyd play bump and run coverage. Carvin Johnson is shaded over the slot receiver and will play man coverage against him. Roh is rolled up to the line of scrimmage and is responsible for the H-back. Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh are spying Chappell and the running back.

On the snap, the H-back releases right away. This is Roh's man to cover. The half back will step up in the pocket to help block. Floyd has jammed his receiver at the line while Johnson and Rogers are playing softer coverage and waiting for their receivers to head upfield.

Roh is engaged with the H-back and has defensive help from the other linebackers. Floyd is still jamming his receiver. Johnson is close to the slot receiver and in good position to make a play on the ball if the pass comes. Rogers looks like he's out of position but he's not: he's baiting Chappell to make a throw from across the hash to the other sideline, a long pass that he should be able to pick off. Ezeh and Mouton continue to spy the men in the backfield.

This is where the play  really comes together. Indiana had been running plays like this all game to great effect. They'd send multiple receivers into Michigan's defensive zones and have them sit down or cross through them (as the H-back is doing here). When Michigan finally broke that tendency, Chappell was caught by surprise. He was expecting to be able to find one of the various soft spots in Michigan's zones and pick up five yards.

Because Chappell was caught off guard and was unable to make the timing throw he expected, Michigan's three-man front is able to get pressure. Mike Martin gets off his block and into the backfield forcing Chappell to roll out to his right where Ryan Van Bergen is waiting. Though it looks like the wide receiver that Rogers is covering is still open, Rogers is actually continuing to bait Chappell to make the cross-field throw. In the end, Chappell throws the ball away.

This is a perfect example of why Michigan needs to play more man coverage: it's not necessarily that it will be more effective than the zones that they currently play, but it will make Michigan's defense less predictable, forcing QBs to go through more reads and give the pass rush more time to deliver. Imagine if a team ran an I-formation halfback iso on every single play on offense. They do it over and over again, game after game, and defenses start to adjust to it. Despite opposing teams figuring out the play and stopping it effectively, the offense keeps running it. Suddenly they run a play action pass and catch the defense off guard. It's the same concept here, except surprising an offense with man coverage once every 8-10 plays isn't going to get a team very many stops, and it's not going to return the same kind of results that a play action pass might. If Michigan can commit to playing man coverage more frequently, I think you'll see the defensive performance spike despite not having the kind of elite-level talent teams need to play a significant amount of man coverage.

Results of man coverage against Indiana

Anyone who's read this blog in the last three weeks knows that I've been manically calling for more man coverage on defense. Arguments to the contrary usually range from "Do you really want to see James Rogers in man coverage?" to "Do you really want to see JT Floyd in man coverage?". In short, yes. I rewatched the Indiana game and counted every time that Michigan showed a man coverage front against a passing play. (I removed all run plays because it's difficult to tell if Michigan is or isn't in man coverage as the receivers usually run up to block the corners and the linebackers, if they're doing their job, don't drop into coverage.)

Of the 96 offensive plays that Indiana ran, Michigan showed a man coverage front 12 (12!) times. In chronological order are the results of the plays:

• throw away
• incompletion
• incompletion but a holding penalty on Rogers
• incompletion
• completion (screen 6 yards)
• completion (screen 8 yards; Roh covering slot receiver. Offensive personnel: 3 WR, TE, RB)
• completion TD (end of 1st quarter; tight coverage but a good thrown and catch)
• completion (45 yard completion to Doss; good throw over the top against Rogers. Appeared to be blown coverage by Cam Gordon in cover-2)
• completion (9 yard; Terrence Talbott on coverage)
• throw away (3rd and 11)
• sack (Banks sack on 1st and 10)
• incompletion (quick throw because of blitz; out of rhythm)

So in 12 attempts, Indiana had six incompletions, one sack, and five completions for approximately 69 yards. Is this statistically significant or proof that Michigan should use more man coverage? Probably not and no. But rewatching the game revealed a couple of things:

• When Michigan was in man coverage, the three-man defensive front was far more effective. One of the reasons the three-man front has been so ineffective this year is because opposing receivers have been settling down on short hitch routes making it difficult for the defensive line to get any pressure. Whether or not the receivers eventually got open on their routes, is beside the point; they were covered closely near the line of scrimmage forcing Chappell to go through his reads. As such, the defensive line was usually able to get to Chappell, forcing him to move out of the pocket or change his angles.
• Michigan got beaten over the top twice: one incompletion to an Indiana tight end that Jordan Kovacs was trailing and the 45-yard completion to Tandon Doss, who Rogers was covering--though I'm not totally sure that it was all his fault because I think Cam Gordon had blown his deep coverage in cover-2.
• Michigan can't play man coverage against stacked receivers. We first saw this problem against UMass when they would stack receivers, usually forcing Kovacs to play man coverage and starting off the line of scrimmage. It ended poorly each time.
• Rogers, Floyd, Avery, and Talbott can all cover for at least limited amounts of time (Avery might be the best cover corner on the team that's currently healthy, about which more this week). Never did they get blown off the line and completely lose coverage. As such, Michigan can blitz more often. I think part of the reason Michigan hasn't blitzed as much as we'd all like to see is because, as porous as the zones are with eight defenders, they'd be even more open with five or six. Teams have decided to run quick routes against a Michigan defense that has shown it will give up five or six yards at will. If they drop less than eight into coverage, we'll probably start seeing more YAC.

In the end, my thoughts stay the same: Michigan needs to show far more man coverage defensive fronts if only to confuse quarterbacks and help stop the short hitches and slants that have become a staple of opposing offenses. Last year, Michigan sat back in a zone against MSU, who threw bubble screens that netted about seven yards per play. MSU ran the same play against Notre Dame this year to the same effect. Michigan needs the ability to counter this play and to give MSU looks that they haven't seen from this defense yet. And given that no team in the Big Ten has as many quality receivers as Indiana, putting Floyd, Rogers, and Avery (please, more Avery) in man coverage with over-the-top safety help could be really effective when adequately sprinkled in among the various zone drops.

Indiana: Where Greg Robinson is on his last leg

The story of Michigan's skin-of-their-teeth win against Indiana will invariably be another stellar performance by Denard Robinson; his last minute touchdown drive the notarization of his already unbridled Heisman campaign. Unfortunately, that's not the real story. The real story is that Greg Robinson's defensive schemes do not work. No longer is this a question of defensive talent or improper personnel. No, sadly, this is far more systematic: Greg Robinson's schemes Do Not Work.

I've been advocating a man coverage package for the last three weeks. Robinson has shown it sparingly. Not that I'm more qualified to run this defense, but Robinson's inability--or maybe stubbornness--to show new looks is far and away the most disappointing aspect of this season. Play after play (and now game after game), teams are running quick slants and seven-yard hitch routes and absolutely shredding Michigan's defense. And it's not that the defense looks athletically overmatched. They look unprepared and poorly coached. With one of the most potent offenses in the country and the Heisman front runner manning the ship, Michigan's eventual 7-5 or 6-6 finish will fall squarely on Robinson's shoulders. I'm not usually quick to call for peoples' heads, but unless there is drastic improvement in the coming games, consider this my desire to see Robinson canned as soon as possible.

On to bullets that aren't the most depressing thing I've ever watched

• As if you didn't know, Denard is still the real deal. He will win the Heisman this year barring the most unforeseen collapse in football history. Or serious injury. Also, if he becomes human, Michigan loses every game on the schedule. If you ever wondered why Michigan started 4-0 last season and then finished 1-7, look at the defense this year and the super human running the offense. Then look at the box scores.
• JUNIOR HEMINGWAY!
• Vincent Smith just doesn't look right. I don't know if it's lingering issues from his knee or not, but on most runs, he just doesn't look to be quite as shifty as I remember him from last year. Then again, that TD run was the fastest he's ever looked.
• Courtney Avery changed his number to 5, which is probably for the best seeing as he and Odoms will be on the field for punt returns.
• There was absolutely nothing positive from the defense.
• JUNIOR HEMINGWAY!
• Speaking of Junior Hemingway--and this is not to take anything away from Tate Forcier or Devin Gardner--but Michigan doesn't win that game in regulation without Denard, or rather, with any other quarterback under center. It's a tie game with less than a minute left and Michigan is able to get man coverage down the field in an obvious passing situation because Indiana is terrified of Denard's running ability. Either that's the worst play call of the year or Denard really is able to take it to the house on any play. Given what we know, it's the latter.

I don't know what else to say, in all honesty. Michigan State is going to crush Michigan on Saturday. Penn State might be winnable still because of their incompetent QB situation. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are out of the picture. It's time to be terrified about making a bowl game again this year.

 Fire this owl. Now.

Corner blitzin'

I mentioned in yesterday's game column that Michigan was content playing the same defense against UMass the entire day. They didn't really show any new blitzing schemes, defensive fronts, or adjustments to try and stop what was a pretty potent UMass attack--at least potent against the shoddy defense Michigan was throwing out there. One of the specific problems I found was this:

Never blitzing a corner on Totally Surprising Quarterback Rollouts that were gashing the defense. It took Michigan until UConn's last offensive series to blitz a cornerback on the one play that UMass ran repeatedly to astounding effect. Over and over again, UMass quarterback Kyle Havens rolled out of the pocket and hit any one of various free receivers downfield that were scampering through the Wolverines' porous zones. He completed 22 of 29 passes and produced a better performance on Saturday than he did the previous two weeks against William and Mary and Holy Cross.

It took a while but I finally found the play when Michigan blitzed Floyd: it was on the Cam Gordon interception/fumble. And while Floyd's blitz wasn't the only reason Havens threw the pick, I'd venture to say it went a long way to causing it. Let's take a look at the film.

With 10 minutes to go in a  42-24 game, if Michigan gets a stop here, they very likely put the game to bed. The final result of this play is really disappointing because if Cam Gordon had held onto the interception this game is probably not quite so terrifying, but alas. Michigan is in their regular 3-3-5 set here and is bluffing a blitz on the strongside of the field. UMass' slot receiver is about to motion across the formation and will end up on the strongside of the field. UMass, as they did much of the game, has one tight end in and a single half back.

Right before the snap, you can see JT Floyd starting in on his corner blitz. The strongside blitz that Michigan was showing pre-snap will pull off the line and drop into coverage. Now, you're probably asking: What about UMass' uncovered defender at the bottom of the screen. Well UMass had been using weakside receivers as the final option on most passing downs and having the strongside receivers typically run drag routes across the field, a few yards behind the Michigan's linebacker zones. So the receiver that Floyd was cover pre-snap would not be a hot read if UMass QB Havens gets into trouble.

At the snap, Michigan rushes three--with Floyd coming off the corner--and drops the linebackers into coverage. UMass' linemen are blocking one-on-one with the defensive ends and double teaming Mike Martin. The running back will be charged with blocking Floyd.

At this point, the left guard realizes that Michigan was bluffing the blitz and doubles Ryan Van Bergen. The rest of Michigan's linemen are tied up on their blocks. The running back sees Floyd's blitz and steps up to block him. This is a critical point for Floyd: As you can see, theres a bit of a gap between the right tackle and the running back. If Floyd takes this route, the half back can simply push him through the pocket and Havens will have a free release out of the pocket. Instead, Floyd stays disciplined and continues to rush to the outside of the pocket.

Michigan's secondary has covered well enough that Greg Banks is getting off of his block and heading into the backfield. Martin is about to do the same. One reason Michigan was able to cover so well on this play was that they blanketed the strongside of the field with defenders. Floyd is continuing around the outside of the pocket and Havens has no idea he's there.

Now Havens sees the pressure coming up the middle and tries to roll out of the pocket like he had been doing all day. But instead of just having a free wheel release, when he turns his head, Floyd is rushing around the edge. Though there is a hole, Havens is forced to cut back upfield. On film, you can actually see this bother him.

Havens has now cut through the hole and is being pursued by Michigan's linemen. You can't see in this picture, but five yards beyond the line of scrimmage, Jonas Mouton is waiting for Havens and covering one of his receivers; he either has to pass it or rush for a minimal gain. Havens decides to pass the ball very late in the play and overshoots his receiver who is dragging across the play and being nominally covered by Obi Ezeh downfield.

With Havens scrambling out of the pocket and under durress, he throws up what will eventually be the Cam Gordon pick.

The point is this: When Havens was given a free release out of the pocket, which was often, he was usually able to find one of his receivers streaking through Michigan's zone. But because they sent a different look at him--Floyd coming off the edge--he had to readjust where he was able to throw the ball. Much of UMass' offense on Saturday was predicated on getting Havens to the edge and allowing him to work Michigan's zones. But with the corner blitz, he was unable to do so.

Again, if Gordon hangs onto this interception, the game is probably over in unceremonious fashion. But more importantly, this was a play where Greg Robinson dialed up something unexpected and it should've ended well for Michigan.

UMass: Where owls

At some point during Michigan's win against UMass on Saturday, I stopped being terrified. I knew how the game was going to end. I watched it for four years while I attended Michigan, the last four of the Lloyd Carr era. Eventually, UMass was going to make it close, Michigan would curl up in the fetal position (read: prevent shell), and Michigan would pull it out in a terrifyingly pedestrian fashion. When Denard Robinson lined up under center in the I-formation on third and one with five minutes left in a two possession game, everyone in the stadium knew what was going to happen, including a UMass linebacker who blew into the backfield untouched and tackled Vincent Smith for a three yard loss. Somewhere, Lloyd Carr was sitting in a plush leather chair and smiling.

But Michigan's offense wasn't the problem. They scored 42 points, racked up 525 yards, only turned the ball over once, and generally looked like the behemouth we've all come to expect despite not debuting any new formations or plays. Michigan--or maybe just Denard Robinson again--did what they were supposed to do despite Rich Rodriguez's recent urge to run half back dives at the end of games. Obviously, the bigger concern of the game was Greg Robinson's refusal to do, well, anything. Among the biggest, obvious complaints:

• Never blitzing a corner on Totally Surprising Quarterback Rollouts that were gashing the defense
• Never playing man coverage
• Never playing a 4-3 defense
• Think. Adapt. Think

But let's handle these one by one. Never blitzing a corner on Totally Surprising Quarterback Rollouts that were gashing the defense. It took Michigan until UConn's last offensive series to blitz a cornerback on the one play that UMass ran repeatedly to astounding effect. Over and over again, UMass quarterback Kyle Havens rolled out of the pocket and hit any one of various free receivers downfield that were scampering through the Wolverines' porous zones. He completed 22 of 29 passes and produced a better performance on Saturday than he did the previous two weeks against William and Mary and Holy Cross. This defense is just as awful as we thought it was. The only hope (the only hope) is that Robinson was told this week not to show any new formations or fronts. That seems unlikely. Eventually, they blitzed JT Floyd off the edge and it ended in a broken play that went UMass' way, which, fine, that'll happen. But Robinson's complete and utter inability to make adjustments is terrifying. This was the worst called defensive game I've ever watched.

Then again, Michigan's defense might not be so anemic if they could play man coverage. Again, I think it took until UMass' last offensive series for the Michigan defense to show man coverage. UMass receivers were devouring Michigan's zones. I understand that the team has little to no depth in the secondary and putting true freshmen like Cullen Christian out there is a harrowing thought, but was anyone else watching this game?

Of course, the passing game wasn't the only thing that Michigan couldn't defend. They were being shredded on the ground too to the tune of 217 yards and 4.4 YPC. Part of this was because of Robinson's insistence on playing a three-man defensive line that was repeatedly getting pushed back. I understand that the coaches are upset with Will Campbell's conditioning. I get that. But to never show a 4-3 front when it's obvious to everyone watching that the defensive line is a) being put on skates or b) slanting away from the play because they need to get into the backfield somehow, well that's just willful ignorance and stubbornness on behalf of the coaches. Campbell needed to be on the field. He has the size to contend with UMass' offensive line, something that the defensive front desperately needed.

Finally, THINK DUDE. Do something. Please. Robinson seemed much too content sitting back and watching as UMass trounced our piecemeal defense. He didn't show anything new. He didn't seem overly concerned with the beating, either. We all assumed that the defense was going to be bad, and when they seemed to show improvement in the first two games, Michigan fans had every right to be excited. The problem is, we all assumed the problems on defense would stem from personnel, not necessarily awful play calling, an utter lack of adjustments, and frankly, the scheme. It's too early to bury this defense yet, but the grave has been dug.

But a win is a win, and after the last two years, we've all learned to appreciate the good, even when it comes with the most ominous rain clouds. Michigan should have a much easier opponent next week against Bowling Green, but you never know anymore. The team is going to put this game behind them. I suggest you do the same. It'll help you sleep easier. But not much.

What a Smith-less defense looks like?

These posts are getting old. Fast.

MGoBlog is reporting that Brandon Smith, LB/safety hybrid and apparent heir to the Stevie Brown throne has picked up his transfer papers and is moving on. This is, in a word, ohmygodthedefenseisgoingtobeawfulbad. You might remember Smith from such plays as getting kicked in the chest against Delaware State (above), and as the guy who television cameramen continually mistook for Brandon Minor, despite the dreadlocks and name on his jersey. Other than that, not much. That's because Smith couldn't really find a good fit on the defense, only really getting time once the coaches were sufficiently fed up with the play of Mike Williams or random linebacker.

So what does this mean for the defense? Again, bad. It had been my assumption that Smith was probably going to take over the Stevie Brown role as hybrid LB/nickel corner/safety because of his athleticism, build, and need to be able to cover players one-on-one. It had been long thought that Jordan Kovacs might take over the role, but as mentioned here before, that last requirement takes him firmly out of contention for the spot. But unfortunately, Michigan has about zero good options for the position anymore.

The current depth chart at the Stevie Brown position looks like this: Walk on, true sophomore. So, ya know, dire. As you could tell last year, Brown rarely if ever left the field and was, Graham aside, the most effective player on the defense for most of the year. Losing him without any viable backup is going to be a big hit. The walk on behind Brown last year was Floyd Simmons who sits at an unassuming 5'10", 190 lbs. In other words: No. Behind him is the true sophomore Mike Jones (Who?) who we haven't really seen yet and may end up being a serviceable option here. But again, true sophomore.

And that's about it. There aren't too many options here because of the decidedly specific set of skills a player needs to have to play the position. The loss of Smith may necessitate the widely rumored move of incoming super-recruit Marvin Robinson from safety to this position, but standing at 190 lbs. as he's reported now makes this a last case scenario lest we watch him get blasted a la Roh v. Wisconsin every game. I honestly believe that this departure may be more impactful than the likely loss of Donovan Warren if only for purely depth reasons. Michigan is either going to need an out-of-position true freshman or an inexperienced true sophomore to step up into the role that became the most active and diverse role on the defense. This is gonna get ugly.