Notes from Michigan vs. Indiana

Now that I've finally had a chance to watch a few Michigan hoops games (including actually attending the Bradley game, my first in-person Michigan hoops game since a 2004 throttling at the hands of Michigan State), I feel like I finally have something to say about the team...

• Yesterday's game was not close. I know the scoreboard says Michigan only lost by 2 points, but that game was totally dominated by the Hoosiers. Michigan allowed Indiana to shoot 55% from the field, including 63% from outside (most of which were completely uncontested). The teams had equal rebounds, Indiana had two more assists and five more blocks, and Michigan only held onto the ball slightly better than the Hoosiers (12 and 15 turnovers respectively). Three more made three pointers by the Wolverines and seven missed free throws by Indiana is the only thing that kept this game close.
• The main reason for the loss: athleticism. Michigan got kind of exposed last night. It will surprise no one that Stu Douglass and Zack Novak are less athletic than some of their counter parts (spot up three-point shooters tend to be), but just how much less athletic was put in stark contrast last night. Sure, not every team has someone as electric as Victor Oladipo, but Michigan simply could not keep up with that team last night. They were faster and stronger at basically every position, which resulted in contested shots for the Wolverines, blow bys on the defensive end, and an inability to get open, both on and off the ball (I've never seen back cuts defended so well without giving up anything on the frontside; Indiana is just that much faster).
• This leads me to my next point of contention which I will be widely derided for: Tim Hardaway Jr. is not very fast. He can jump pretty high and has decent straight-line speed, but his first step is devastatingly slow. There's a reason you can barely give him the ball in isolation situations on the offensive end: he can't beat his man off the dribble. Similarly, this lack of quickness is one of the primary reasons that he's such an abhorrent defender. If you didn't believe it before, you should after last night. And on nights when he's going 0/7 from outside, he's as much a detriment to the team as a benefit (19 points on 19 shots from your star player is not a recipe for success).
• Jordan Morgan did a really good job defending Cody Zeller last night, despite his still positive stat line. Morgan denied passes into the post by fronting Zeller all game and was quick enough to get back into position so as not to allow lob passes or anything inside.
• Evan Smotrycz. Damn, kid can shoot. Can't dribble. Can't pass. Loves fouling. But boy can he shoot.
• Enough has been said about Trey Burke to date, and I'm not sure I have much more to offer. He does have one of the softest shots I've ever seen. I'm not really sure why, or whether or not it's less effective because of it, but his shots flutter in a way that I don't think I've ever seen before. Especially from outside, he seems to heave the ball more than shoot it. I expect his outside shooting to improve dramatically whenever Michigan's coaches really have a chance to mold his form (probably not until the offseason).

As MGoBlog mentioned yesterday, this loss doesn't really hurt Michigan's NCAA Tourny resume, but they're going to need a few of these games against ranked opponents to go the other way. "Good losses" only get you so far. But they're set up well to win a few this season. Besides, Indiana is going to finish the Big Ten either 1st or 2nd (behind OSU), so not all of Michigan's ranked opponents will be Duke or this Indiana team.

Man coverage example vs. Indiana

As I continue my crusade to see more man coverage from the Michigan defense, I want to take a look at a specific play from the Indiana game on which Michigan was successful running it and why it was successful.

Indiana is in a three-wide pistol look with with a half back and H-back in the game. Michigan is in their base formation with base personnel. Michigan is going to play straight man coverage with cover-2 safety help over the top. Jordan Kovcas is covering the weakside deep half and Cam Gordon is over the strongside deep half. JT Floyd and James Rogers are covering the wide receivers with Rogers playing six yards off the line of scrimmage and Floyd play bump and run coverage. Carvin Johnson is shaded over the slot receiver and will play man coverage against him. Roh is rolled up to the line of scrimmage and is responsible for the H-back. Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh are spying Chappell and the running back.

On the snap, the H-back releases right away. This is Roh's man to cover. The half back will step up in the pocket to help block. Floyd has jammed his receiver at the line while Johnson and Rogers are playing softer coverage and waiting for their receivers to head upfield.

Roh is engaged with the H-back and has defensive help from the other linebackers. Floyd is still jamming his receiver. Johnson is close to the slot receiver and in good position to make a play on the ball if the pass comes. Rogers looks like he's out of position but he's not: he's baiting Chappell to make a throw from across the hash to the other sideline, a long pass that he should be able to pick off. Ezeh and Mouton continue to spy the men in the backfield.

This is where the play  really comes together. Indiana had been running plays like this all game to great effect. They'd send multiple receivers into Michigan's defensive zones and have them sit down or cross through them (as the H-back is doing here). When Michigan finally broke that tendency, Chappell was caught by surprise. He was expecting to be able to find one of the various soft spots in Michigan's zones and pick up five yards.

Because Chappell was caught off guard and was unable to make the timing throw he expected, Michigan's three-man front is able to get pressure. Mike Martin gets off his block and into the backfield forcing Chappell to roll out to his right where Ryan Van Bergen is waiting. Though it looks like the wide receiver that Rogers is covering is still open, Rogers is actually continuing to bait Chappell to make the cross-field throw. In the end, Chappell throws the ball away.

This is a perfect example of why Michigan needs to play more man coverage: it's not necessarily that it will be more effective than the zones that they currently play, but it will make Michigan's defense less predictable, forcing QBs to go through more reads and give the pass rush more time to deliver. Imagine if a team ran an I-formation halfback iso on every single play on offense. They do it over and over again, game after game, and defenses start to adjust to it. Despite opposing teams figuring out the play and stopping it effectively, the offense keeps running it. Suddenly they run a play action pass and catch the defense off guard. It's the same concept here, except surprising an offense with man coverage once every 8-10 plays isn't going to get a team very many stops, and it's not going to return the same kind of results that a play action pass might. If Michigan can commit to playing man coverage more frequently, I think you'll see the defensive performance spike despite not having the kind of elite-level talent teams need to play a significant amount of man coverage.

Courtney Avery adendum

Yesterday, I wrote a post about Courtney Avery, his ability to play man coverage, and his utter disregard for zones. Reader Jason Roberts had a few questions about the play:

What if that IU receiver is running a fly route? I'm assuming that Cam Gordon is out there somewhere, but then it's 2-on-2, which favors any offense that also has a 5th year senior QB. Also, if Avery leaves that guy sooner (and you may very well be right that it's a busted assignment) and it is a fly route, then Chappell might have hit him before he even got in Gordon's zone.

As you can see, Indiana is in a four-wide set, and all four receivers are running vertical routes. Michigan is in a cover-3 look with Kovacs, Gordon, and Rogers covering deep thirds of the field. Michigan has their nickel package in, charged with covering underneath zones along with the linebackers. As the play develops, it looks something like this:

Avery is the underneath defender at the top of the screen. His job against four verticals is to carry the slot receiver briefly and push him out of his line while also staying disciplined in his zone to take away the outside hitch that Indiana eventually completes on this play. If Avery carries the slot receiver for only a short amount of time, it forces Chappell to make an almost impossible throw to connect with the slot: he would have to thread the ball between Roh (outside linebacker), Carvin Johnson (middle linebacker), and the deep middle safety in Cam Gordon. Trying to complete that pass is a recipe for an interception and something that a fifth-year senior quarterback is unlikely to try. Avery, however, stays with the slot receiver too long, completely opening up the outside hitch route.

Rogers is charge with not letting anyone get behind him on this play, so with a receiver streaking directly at him, he needs to cover the deep third of the field. If Avery is in position, it forces the outside receiver to continue his fly route down the sideline. If he tries to settle in the zone, Chappell will once again have to make a difficult throw, passing between Roh, Avery, and Rogers. Getting pressure on the QB is essential if Michigan wants to avoid a jump ball down the field or the hitch route that netted Indiana 16 yards.

Frequent MGoBlog diarist Steve Sharik actually wrote up something in August for Smart Football about this play exactly: defending four verticals in a 3-3-5 cover-3. Michigan personnel come in for discussion, but the general idea:

A properly coached Cover 3 defense will use its LBs [ed. in Michigan's alignment, this is Avery and Talbott] to re-route and not give up easy seam throws. For a 3-3-5 defense, the alignment of the #2 reciever changes who is responsible for this. If #2 is a TE or Wing, then one of the Stack Backers (Sam, Will, whatever) is responsible for seam elimination (as we like to call it). If #2 is a wide slot, then either the Spur or Bandit is responsible. The objectives are threefold: 1. Take away the quick seam throw by jamming and running with #2. 2. Widen the seam route to the Corner’s zone, or outside 1/3. Do not let #2 cross your face. 3. Get your eyes to #1.

I suggest you read the entire thing. Avery does a good job of widening the slot receiver's route, but instead of breaking off and covering the hitch route that the #1 receiver completes, Avery continues too far with the slot.

Rich Rod final drive playcalling

I've previously spent time here discussing the gamesmanship of Rich Rodriguez in play calling, specifically against Notre Dame on Roy Roundtree's wide open touchdown pass. Remarkably enough, with 1:15 left in the fourth quarter of a tied game, 73 yards to go to the end zone, and an awful kicking game, Rodriguez was able to do the same magic against Indiana to set up the Junior Hemingway reception at the four yard line. Let's take a look at how it was set up:

This is the first play of Michigan's final drive. Indiana is in man coverage against the receivers with cover-2 help over the top. Indiana shows this defensive front on every play on this drive. Michigan runs three straight QB runs, off tackle to the left and is able to pick up 27 yards on the three plays. With 29 seconds left, the clock stopped, and two Michigan timeouts remaining, Indiana realizes that they need to change something to stop a potential Michigan field goal try (which they should've been content giving up given Michigan's kicking woes). When Indiana lines up to defend the eventual Hemingway pass, they come out in the same defensive front they just showed:

Look familiar?

There's only one difference: The nickel back that was covering Roy Roundtree in the slot shows blitz before the snap. Then this happens:

Michigan looks back to the sideline because Rodriguez has seen the blitz coming from the nickel back (you can see the nickel back--#10--on the line of scrimmage). This leaves straight man coverage for Hemingway and Roundtree with no safety help over the top. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan had called another QB run off tackle as they were gashing the Indiana defense and still had two timeouts remaining. But when Indiana showed their hand and Michigan got man coverage against one of their deep threats who is reported to have the best hands on the team, well...

There are a couple of things happening here. First, this was probably a terrible play call from Indiana. Regardless of what Michigan was doing on the ground, to give a man coverage look like this with no safety help, when Denard has proven throughout the year that he can make deep throws, is willfully stupid. Granted, it was good coverage and a great catch, but this is the sort of thing that happens in one-on-one coverage on an island. It was even dumber given that, even with the nickel back blitz, Indiana still only brought five players against Michigan's six blockers--which is why it's a little disappointing that Denard got hit as hard as he did on the throw.

Next, as I said in my game column, this play doesn't happen with anyone else under center. Specifically,

It's a tie game with less than a minute left and Michigan is able to get man coverage down the field in an obvious passing situation because Indiana is terrified of Denard's running ability. Either that's the worst play call of the year or Denard really is able to take it to the house on any play. Given what we know, it's the latter.

So maybe it's not even close to the worst play call of the year. But the fact remains: How in the world do you put corners on an island and blitz less players than a team has blockers in a situation like that, especially given that Michigan's kickers are a combined 1/5 on the year? In that situation, you allow the running game to pick up nine yards at a time and take your chances with Michigan's kicking game.

Finally, Rodriguez needs to come in for a lot of praise here. On the previous three plays, Michigan got up to the line of scrimmage, surveyed the field, and ran the play they had originally called. When Indiana finally showed a change, one that was favorable to Michigan, Rodriguez checked to the passing play that effectively won them the game. Lloyd Carr rarely if ever showed this kind of cat-and-mouse play calling. More importantly, this is twice in close games that Rodriguez has out maneuvered his counterpart to resounding effect. This is not a fluke occurrence.

Courtney Avery: Michigan's best cover corner; hates zones

Yes, I'm talking about man vs. zone coverage again. But this time there's pictures.

After watching Courtney Avery play (see the best pass break up of the season above against Bowling Green), you can tell that he was bred to be a cover corner. He may be undersized and a true freshman, but I wouldn't be surprised if Avery ended the season as the starting cornerback across from J.T. Floyd. He brings athleticism and coverage skills that James Rogers doesn't have, but the biggest thing that he's missing is an understanding of zone drops and discipline.

Below is a play against Indiana in which Michigan was using their nickel package and Avery was in the game. It's 3rd and 16, and a stop on this play could've really swung the game in Michigan's favor. Avery vacates his zone in an effort to play man coverage on one of the slot receivers, creating an easy pitch and catch for Chappell. But watching Avery on the play and throughout the year, it's clear that he was bred to play man coverage.

As I mentioned, it's 3rd and 16 and Michigan is in its nickel package with Courtney Avery and Terrence Talbott on the field in place of two linebackers. Avery is lined up near the Indiana slot receiver on the top hash. Michigan is playing a cover-3 here with Jordan Kovacs, Cam Gordon, and James Rogers dropping into deep coverage. They rush three and drop the rest of the players into underneath zones.

After the snap, you can see Michigan drop into their zones. Avery immediately begins to drop into his zone and head toward the sideline, as does Craig Roh.

Michigan isn't getting any real pressure with the three man rush and Chappell has all day to sit in the pocket. You can see that all of Michigan's underneath defenders have their shoulders turned toward Chappell and are watching him except Avery who is still carrying his receiver through his zone. The wide receiver to his side of the field is running unabated at Rogers who is covering the deep third of the field.

This is a great shot: Roh is staring down Chappell and is sitting in his zone but Avery is still carrying his receiver and has his back turned to to the QB. Rogers, who is at the very top of the screen is in a predicament: he has to cover the deep third of the field, which means he needs to watch both of the receivers in the screen above. As such, the outside receiver has the ability to sit down in the vacated zone with a clear path for Chappell to throw through. In this play, Avery is supposed to turn his shoulders earlier and obstruct Chappell's passing lane to the outside receiver.

Chappell is loading up to throw to the outside receiver and Avery still has his back turned. If he had turned his shoulders correctly, the slot receiver would be obstructed by Roh and Chappell would have to throw the ball over Avery to hit the outside receiver. This is blown coverage

Chappell has an easy pitch and catch. Rogers doesn't really have the ability to get over there in time but eventually makes the tackle. If Avery plays his zone properly here, this play probably doesn't work out.

Despite this being an obviously negative play by Avery, I find it kind of encouraging. Avery is a true freshman and needs to be taught not to do too much--this is what coaches talk about when they say "doing too much". He tried carrying the slot receiver to make sure he didn't get open, but in doing so, he opened up the outside hitch route. Avery is clearly used to playing man coverage and actually does a really good job on the slot receiver in this play, but you can see him making this same mistake a few times during the game: he stays with receivers too long and vacates his zone. If he can start settling in his zone better, he could become a more consistent contributor because, as with the pass break up above, Avery sticks to receivers. I expected Cullen Christian or Talbott to see the field before Avery this year, but at this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see Avery starting alongside Floyd.

Results of man coverage against Indiana

Anyone who's read this blog in the last three weeks knows that I've been manically calling for more man coverage on defense. Arguments to the contrary usually range from "Do you really want to see James Rogers in man coverage?" to "Do you really want to see JT Floyd in man coverage?". In short, yes. I rewatched the Indiana game and counted every time that Michigan showed a man coverage front against a passing play. (I removed all run plays because it's difficult to tell if Michigan is or isn't in man coverage as the receivers usually run up to block the corners and the linebackers, if they're doing their job, don't drop into coverage.)

Of the 96 offensive plays that Indiana ran, Michigan showed a man coverage front 12 (12!) times. In chronological order are the results of the plays:

• throw away
• incompletion
• incompletion but a holding penalty on Rogers
• incompletion
• completion (screen 6 yards)
• completion (screen 8 yards; Roh covering slot receiver. Offensive personnel: 3 WR, TE, RB)
• completion TD (end of 1st quarter; tight coverage but a good thrown and catch)
• completion (45 yard completion to Doss; good throw over the top against Rogers. Appeared to be blown coverage by Cam Gordon in cover-2)
• completion (9 yard; Terrence Talbott on coverage)
• throw away (3rd and 11)
• sack (Banks sack on 1st and 10)
• incompletion (quick throw because of blitz; out of rhythm)

So in 12 attempts, Indiana had six incompletions, one sack, and five completions for approximately 69 yards. Is this statistically significant or proof that Michigan should use more man coverage? Probably not and no. But rewatching the game revealed a couple of things:

• When Michigan was in man coverage, the three-man defensive front was far more effective. One of the reasons the three-man front has been so ineffective this year is because opposing receivers have been settling down on short hitch routes making it difficult for the defensive line to get any pressure. Whether or not the receivers eventually got open on their routes, is beside the point; they were covered closely near the line of scrimmage forcing Chappell to go through his reads. As such, the defensive line was usually able to get to Chappell, forcing him to move out of the pocket or change his angles.
• Michigan got beaten over the top twice: one incompletion to an Indiana tight end that Jordan Kovacs was trailing and the 45-yard completion to Tandon Doss, who Rogers was covering--though I'm not totally sure that it was all his fault because I think Cam Gordon had blown his deep coverage in cover-2.
• Michigan can't play man coverage against stacked receivers. We first saw this problem against UMass when they would stack receivers, usually forcing Kovacs to play man coverage and starting off the line of scrimmage. It ended poorly each time.
• Rogers, Floyd, Avery, and Talbott can all cover for at least limited amounts of time (Avery might be the best cover corner on the team that's currently healthy, about which more this week). Never did they get blown off the line and completely lose coverage. As such, Michigan can blitz more often. I think part of the reason Michigan hasn't blitzed as much as we'd all like to see is because, as porous as the zones are with eight defenders, they'd be even more open with five or six. Teams have decided to run quick routes against a Michigan defense that has shown it will give up five or six yards at will. If they drop less than eight into coverage, we'll probably start seeing more YAC.

In the end, my thoughts stay the same: Michigan needs to show far more man coverage defensive fronts if only to confuse quarterbacks and help stop the short hitches and slants that have become a staple of opposing offenses. Last year, Michigan sat back in a zone against MSU, who threw bubble screens that netted about seven yards per play. MSU ran the same play against Notre Dame this year to the same effect. Michigan needs the ability to counter this play and to give MSU looks that they haven't seen from this defense yet. And given that no team in the Big Ten has as many quality receivers as Indiana, putting Floyd, Rogers, and Avery (please, more Avery) in man coverage with over-the-top safety help could be really effective when adequately sprinkled in among the various zone drops.

Indiana: Where Greg Robinson is on his last leg

The story of Michigan's skin-of-their-teeth win against Indiana will invariably be another stellar performance by Denard Robinson; his last minute touchdown drive the notarization of his already unbridled Heisman campaign. Unfortunately, that's not the real story. The real story is that Greg Robinson's defensive schemes do not work. No longer is this a question of defensive talent or improper personnel. No, sadly, this is far more systematic: Greg Robinson's schemes Do Not Work.

I've been advocating a man coverage package for the last three weeks. Robinson has shown it sparingly. Not that I'm more qualified to run this defense, but Robinson's inability--or maybe stubbornness--to show new looks is far and away the most disappointing aspect of this season. Play after play (and now game after game), teams are running quick slants and seven-yard hitch routes and absolutely shredding Michigan's defense. And it's not that the defense looks athletically overmatched. They look unprepared and poorly coached. With one of the most potent offenses in the country and the Heisman front runner manning the ship, Michigan's eventual 7-5 or 6-6 finish will fall squarely on Robinson's shoulders. I'm not usually quick to call for peoples' heads, but unless there is drastic improvement in the coming games, consider this my desire to see Robinson canned as soon as possible.

On to bullets that aren't the most depressing thing I've ever watched

• As if you didn't know, Denard is still the real deal. He will win the Heisman this year barring the most unforeseen collapse in football history. Or serious injury. Also, if he becomes human, Michigan loses every game on the schedule. If you ever wondered why Michigan started 4-0 last season and then finished 1-7, look at the defense this year and the super human running the offense. Then look at the box scores.
• JUNIOR HEMINGWAY!
• Vincent Smith just doesn't look right. I don't know if it's lingering issues from his knee or not, but on most runs, he just doesn't look to be quite as shifty as I remember him from last year. Then again, that TD run was the fastest he's ever looked.
• Courtney Avery changed his number to 5, which is probably for the best seeing as he and Odoms will be on the field for punt returns.
• There was absolutely nothing positive from the defense.
• JUNIOR HEMINGWAY!
• Speaking of Junior Hemingway--and this is not to take anything away from Tate Forcier or Devin Gardner--but Michigan doesn't win that game in regulation without Denard, or rather, with any other quarterback under center. It's a tie game with less than a minute left and Michigan is able to get man coverage down the field in an obvious passing situation because Indiana is terrified of Denard's running ability. Either that's the worst play call of the year or Denard really is able to take it to the house on any play. Given what we know, it's the latter.

I don't know what else to say, in all honesty. Michigan State is going to crush Michigan on Saturday. Penn State might be winnable still because of their incompetent QB situation. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are out of the picture. It's time to be terrified about making a bowl game again this year.

 Fire this owl. Now.

Indiana preview

Tomorrow, Michigan heads into Bloomington, Indiana, to take on the mighty (but not that mighty) Indiana Hoosiers. Last year's thriller was one more feather in the Tate Forcier Heisman cap as he led Michigan to a last-drive win with a bum shoulder. Unfortunately, it was Michigan's last win against a I-A opponent. But you know all that. Let's look at the numbers:

Michigan Defense Offense Passing 105th nationally 264.75 YPG 50st nationally 231.50 YPG Rushing 53rd nationally 135.25 YPG 2nd nationally 331.25 YPG Scoring 64th nationally 23.00 PPG 11th nationally 41.25 PPG

Indiana Defense Offense Passing 20th nationally 161.33 YPG 11th nationally 304.33 YPG Rushing 92nd nationally 177.00 YPG 96th nationally 113.00 YPG Scoring 43rd nationally 19.33 PPG 10th nationally 41.33 PPG

Indiana has one of the more potent passing attacks in the country, led by senior quarterback Ben Chappell. Chappell is completing 72% of his passes and has thrown 9 touchdowns to zero interceptions. The point being that he's been remarkably efficient running Indiana's pistol offense. Unfortunately for Michigan, despite the hot start, their defense (particularly the secondary) is just as cavernous as we all feared. UMass shredded Michigan through the air and Notre Dame would have too if Dayne Crist wouldn't have been horribly concussed on the first drive of the game. But alas, karma is just and Michigan is 4-0.

On the other side of the ball, Indiana's rush defense is horrendous, especially given the cupcake schedule they've faced (Towson, @Western Kentucky, Akron). If Michigan can't run rings around what appears to be the worst rushing defense in the Big Ten, 2010 is going to shape up to be something ugly. Granted, Michael Shaw is out for the game, and much of the non-Denard rushing duties are going to fall on Vincent Smith and Michael Cox's shoulders, but that shouldn't make too much of a difference against what should be a really poor defense.

Prediction: I'm much more pessimistic about this team than most of the Michigan blogosphere and see this as a very real trap game. Though Indiana's offensive numbers are definitely a little better than they should be given the strength of their schedule, completing 72% of your passes is not something to toy with. Michigan is going to be in for a serious fight in this game, one that they could, in my eyes, very easily lose.

Then again, Indiana's defense looks to be even worse than Michigan's, and given Denard's ability to run roughshod over, well, everyone, Michigan should be able to score at will. As always for this team, winning the turnover battle will be key. If Michigan gives Indiana too many chances to score, they will lose this game. Michigan will have to score on basically every possession because I don't see them getting a whole lot of defensive stops. On the other hand, if they can get a few bounces in the turnover department, this game could get out of hand and see playing time for Forcier and Devin Gardner.

Expect a lot of the nickel package we saw last week with Courtney Avery and Terrence Talbott in the game, trying to defend the mass of deadly Indiana receivers. Offensively, expect more of the same. I suspect Michigan will show one or two different plays/sets that work resoundingly, but otherwise, it'll be a lot of QB off-tackle and bubbly bubble screens.

Michigan will get a stop or two in the first half and go into the second with a decent lead. The inability to kick field goals is probably going to make this game a little hairier than anyone would like, but in the end, Michigan pulls it out and wins, albeit closely. Michigan 42-38

Indiana preview thingy

This isn't going to be a proper preview, really, as we just played Indiana two weeks ago and should all remember that debacle still. Michigan got into foul trouble early and couldn't stop Indiana from shooting 47% from the field in the Big Ten opener. After the game I said this,

Still, it was a game Michigan needed to win (as most of them are from here on out) and they blew it by way of early foul trouble in the second half--if I can recall correctly, they were in the penalty with about 15 minutes left in the half, ugh--and Beilein's insistence on using the 2-3 zone when it was being absolutely torched to the tune of 47% shooting on the night..... More to the point, though, the 2-3 more or less emphasized all of Michigan's defensive troubles without maximizing anything. Time and again, Sims was pulled into the high post to cover a man in the lane, leaving rebounds and drives open, while the guards seemed too slow to face up and contest any shots. What's worse, they couldn't force turnovers out of the 2-3 and looked like they were scrambling around the court on most possessions. It was not encouraging.

This began my now extensive disappointment with Beilein this season. Mark my words, if I see Michigan use the 2-3 zone in this game, I'm going to break something nice.

So what does Michigan need to do to win this game? Be Michigan, really. I think Indiana is a pretty underrated Big Ten squad and is poised to go on a string of really good wins. But they're not a team Michigan should be losing home games to. Look for Harris and Sims to continue their roles as Only Scorers on the Team and just pray that someone else on the team can pick up the slack.

More importantly, this game is the last one before Michigan takes on UConn, the last chance they'll have at a signature out-of-conference win. Playing on their home floor and getting into rhythm will be important if Michigan will have any chance at beating UConn. Unfortunately, according to the statistics, the team might already be in rhythm. That would not bode well for this team going forward, but it seems exceedingly reasonable. I don't know what to expect from this team anymore. Let us watch and pray.

UMHoops has a more thorough preview.