Preview: Ohio 2012

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#19 Michigan vs. Ohio

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ABC

Forecast: High-30s, 0% chance of rain 

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Last week
Ohio State 21 - Wisconsin 14 (OT). Ohio State continued its meaningless undefeated season last week by beating Wisconsin in overtime. Wisconsin's third starting quarterback this season, Curt Phillips, acquitted himself well by completing 14 of 25 passes for 154 yards and 1 TD. Meanwhile, Monte Ball did his Monte Ball thing by averaging  4.9 YPC on 39 (!!!) carries. Sacks removed, Wisconsin actually managed 4.69 YPC as a team. Those sacks may be what won Ohio State the game. Defensive end terror John Simon was nigh unblockable, marking the team's four sacks. The rest of the team managed only five tackles for loss.

Braxton Miller had a typical day: 10/18 through the air for 97 yards, and 20 carries for 70 yards. Carlos Hyde also had a good game averaging 5.8 YPC on 15 carries. Despite these performances, Ohio State was only able to manage 14 points in regulation. In overtime, the Buckeyes got away with a couple of glaring holding calls that allowed them to march into the endzone on four plays. And Wisconsin couldn't move the ball at all, resulting in an undramatic extra period.

Offense vs. Ohio State

Despite the Buckeyes' undefeated season, this is not a vintage OSU defense. A quick rundown of their statistical rankings proves as much: 17th in rushing defense, 28th in pass efficiency defense, 38th in total defense, 34th in scoring defense, 34th in sacks, and tied for 77th in tackles for loss. Those are good numbers, but they're not typical Ohio State numbers.

The defense is led by defensive end John Simon who is a scary dude. On the season, he has 22 solo tackles, 22 assists, 14.5 TFLs, and 9 sacks, in addition to 4 PBUs and a forced fumble. The scary thing for Michigan's offense is that Simon will probably be lined up across from Michael Schofield who I spent the better part of the first few games this season bemoaning his lack of speed and strength. This could be bad. Next to Simon is manchild Jonathan Hankins, an NFL-sized nose tackle that has lived up to every bit of his hype this season. Hankins has 23 solo tackles, 29 assists, 4 TFLs, and a sack, but his biggest impact is the ability to get into the backfield and disrupt plays.

So running the ball on Saturday is going to be difficult. Given the weakness of Michigan's offensive line and the strength of the Buckeye D-line, moving the ball on the ground will take some sort of randomness. Fortunately, Michigan showed a whole bunch of new running formations against Iowa with Denard Robinson in the backfield intended to get to the outside of the field where Michigan can make hay against OSU.

the Buckeye linebacker corps is led by sophomore Ryan Shazier who leads the team with 68 solo tackles. He's also marked 14.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 1 interception, and 12 PBUs. He is the heart and soul of OSU's defense, but he's also mistake prone. If Michigan can get him moving in the wrong direction on counter plays, he's liable to overrun plays. The LOLZ from OSU's defense come at the middle linebacker spot where converted fullback Zach Boren has taken over the starting position. Boren began the season as a fullback by moved to the other side of the ball when the existing linebackers proved to be miserable. Think Rich Rodriguez moving Mark Moundros to linebacker. How did that turn out? At the final linebacker spot is senior Etienne Sabino, who feels like he's been around forever. Sabino is and always has been good-not-great, and his numbers this season back this up: 24 solo tackles, 19 assists, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 INT.

So despite a hilarious middle linebacker situation, OSU's front seven is relatively stout. The weakness of the defense is, shockingly, in pass defense. When's the last time OSU didn't have a fleet of lightning fast corners that locked down receivers? Sophomore Bradley Roby and senior Travis Howard are the two Buckeye corners. Howard is the better shutdown man but Roby has more physical gifts. And neither of the starting safeties Christian Bryant and CJ Barnett are particularly threatening. Of concern for Ohio State is that three members of the secondary are in the team's top-five tacklers. They allow a lot of completions: against Big Ten competition, the OSU secondary has allowed QBs to throw for 144/256 through the air (56%) with 10 TDs and 6 INTs. Calibrate for the awfulness of Big Ten quarterbacks, and you have a secondary that's giving up a lot of completions and not particularly threatening with regards to turnovers.

With Michigan's newfound ability to throw the ball, this matchup actually slides slightly toward Michigan. OK, so Michigan's wide receivers are bad, but Michigan may not need to break a ton of long plays if OSU is allowing a bunch of mid-range throws that Devin Gardner has proven to be really accurate on. Running is going to be a harrowing affair, so getting John Simon blocked on drop backs (paging AJ Williams or Devin Funchess' non-existant blocking abilities) and giving Gardner time to survey the field and possibly scramble for first downs will be crucial for Michigan's offensive success.

Defense vs. Braxton Miller

So a few years ago, Michigan fans had to listen to that ridiculous stat that Denard Robinson accounted for 197% of Michigan's offense and every time someone said that, I got especially stabby. That receivers are not "responsible" for any of the yards on catches and YAC is dumb, but I digress. Now its Ohio State who has a quarterback responsible for their entire offense, but because Miller is an OSU quarterback and never gets injured, and because the Big Ten is atrocious and OSU hasn't played a decent defense to date, you don't hear the same conditionals about Miller's play: he is unequivocally awesome if you ask the media. And OK, fine, he's really good but he also has obvious limitations.

Miller is completing just 56% of his passes on the season with 14 TDs and 6 INTs. His yardage total is also fairly impressive but largely because safeties are bugging out against the run and getting caught out of position. He also has Devin Smith to throw to, which doesn't hurt. You might remember Smith from making one of the best catches of the season in week one. Or from any one of his long touchdown catches this season (he's averaging 19.8 yards per reception this year).

The rest of the OSU receiver corps is acceptable without a ton of gamebreakers. Corey Brown leads the team in receptions but is basically just a possession guy. And the name that you already hate and probably will more after Saturday's game is Jake Stoneburner, a senior wide receiver whose catches are all one yard further than the necessary yardage for a first down.

So that's passing which will be an annoyance but won't be a major threat to Michigan's defense like it was in last year's The Game. Beating the Buckeyes stops and ends with stopping their running game, which is no small feat. The offensive line starts four juniors and a senior and don't have any particularly weak spots. Combine that with rumbleback Carlos Hyde and Miller's top-end speed, and you've got a scary offense. Miller leads the team in carries and yards (207 and 1,416 respectively) and is averaging 5.9 YPC. He has breakaway speed, but he's less effective between the tackles and among defenders where he doesn't have the shake that someone like Denard does. Keeping outside leverage on Miller is essential, and hopefully Mattison has the defense better prepared to maintain the QB than they did against Northwestern. Hyde, meanwhile, is averaging 5.2 YPC this season and makes a lot of yardage after contact.

The one thing that has gone unmentioned is Greg Mattison who was Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida. Mattison has struggled with option teams in his two years at Michigan mostly because his gameplan is deficient heading into the game. He has something theoretical that he draws up which doesn't actually work. Against Meyer, you would expect Mattison's schemes to be more effective because of his familiarity with Meyer's schemes. If the linebackers and defensive ends properly execute whatever containment scheme Mattison has for the running game, I expect Michigan's playcalling on this side of the ball to produce good results against OSU.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Shut down Braxton Miller and don't turn the ball over. Despite Miller's gaudy numbers this season, the Buckeyes have had a tendency to have sub-par offensive outputs. Given the state of the Big Ten, that's especially damning. If Michigan can allow Miller to gain over 4 yards per carry instead of 5 or 6, OSU will eventually sputter out offensively. On the other side of the ball, Gardner needs to build upon the performances he's shown the last three weeks. Michigan has new wrinkles in the offense now that will allow Denard and a fleet of blockers to get to the outside, away from OSU's defensive strength. Hold onto the ball and Michigan can probably move the ball more consistently.

How does Ohio State win? Braxton Miller and sacks. Miller has to throw the ball a lot better than he has all season because Michigan's front seven is stout while the secondary will struggle against faster receivers like Devin Smith. If Michigan's gameplan isn't designed to shut down Miller, this will be an ugly, frustrating day. They also need a big performance from John Simon who, if he is going up against Schofield, will almost certainly be able to produce.

Arbitrary chance Michigan wins: 50%

Final Prediction. In my heart of hearts, I want to predict a Michigan victory. Gardner is playing really well, the defense has the speed to shut down OSU's rushing attack, and I firmly believe that Mattison will be a game changer. But... I just can't. This is Michigan and Ohio State in Columbus. Michigan has a QB who has been notoriously bad until the last three weeks. The Wolverine offensive line is bad. The defensive secondary is not good. And I can see nothing but Braxton Miller scampering for 19 yards over and over and over again. So if I'm being honest, 28-17 Ohio State. But like, fuck it, Michigan 23 - Ohio State 21.

Run defense vs Iowa

Though Iowa was able to check down to its tight ends to keep drives alive throughout the game, I was more concerned with Michigan's running defense against a team with a makeshift offensive line and no dynamic running backs. It became pretty clear what Iowa was doing to have success and you could see the difference between their success and Michigan's lack of success running under center.

Iowa shows a two-TE  ace formation with two wide receivers to the boundary. Michigan is in its 4-3 under with Jordan Kovacs rolled into the box. Iowa will run an inside zone to the weakside of the field.

The key to this play is the block on Campbell and the weakside B gap (highlighted), where the play is intended to go. On the snap, Michigan's defensive line slants toward the weakside of the play. Campbell engages the playside offensive guard. The right tackle will get a free release to the second level.

Campbell has now been sealed to the inside despite slanting toward the play. He's gotten decent penetration, but the offensive guard is allowing him to get inside. Craig Roh is in the process of overrunning the play.

Despite Campbell's penetration, he hasn't kept gap responsibility because the offensive guard pushed him beyond the point of attack. Roh has been sealed to the outside. And the linebacker who was supposed to cover this gap (James Ross) has gotten a free-releasing offensive tackle in his face (Iowa's #70).

Roh and Campbell both reach to make the tackle but can't stop Mark Weisman who has a full head of steam.

And this is where Brady Hoke gets upset....

...because JT Floyd gets absolutely trucked and can't stop Weisman from picking up the first down.

Video

The Takeaway
This play starts with Campbell and the offensive guard getting playside of him. Campbell starts this play outside of the guard and, without any blocking help, allows the guard to seal him back to the inside. That's bad and that's why there's such a gaping hole here, but watching this play in contrast to Michigan's under-center runs highlights a stark contrast: Michigan doesn't create gaps like this. Despite the fact that Campbell doesn't play this particularly well, he's able to get good penetration and into the backfield, but the offensive guard helps him along, knowing that even if Campbell gets into the backfield, as long as he's kept to the inside, Weisman will have a lane to run through. Michigan's blocking schemes have confused the offensive line all season and may contribute to this lack of holes for running backs. Regardless, it's disheartening watching Iowa's mediocre offensive line able to create holes and separation for their running backs in ways that Michigan's line can't, but I'm hoping this is talent-related (Michigan's interior line is really weak) and not scheme-related.

Preview: Northwestern 2012

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#24 Northwestern vs. Michigan

The Big House, Ann Arbor, MI

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ESPN

Forecast: High-50s, 30% chance of rain 

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Last game
Last week, Northwestern was on a bye, but the week before that, they played a not-very-close game against Iowa. The Wildcats averaged 7.1 YPC against Iowa and would have beaten them worse had Northwestern not turned the ball over twice. The big change came with the reinstatement of Kain Colter as the starting quarterback for Northwestern. Coulter had been the proverbial change of pace QB for the Wildcats all season, coming in when the team wanted a stronger rushing attack. Nominal starter Trevor Siemian was an inadequate pocket passer: 58.9% completion percentage, 5.71 YPA, 4 TDs, and 1 INT for the season. A change was clearly in order.

Against Iowa, Colter went 6/9 through the air for 80 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, but he also presented a consistent option rushing attack throughout the game. Colter averaged 6.4 YPC on 26 carries, while starting running back Venric Mark averaged 10.1 YPC on 16 (!!!) carries. Iowa might be bad, but this Northwestern offese is probably scary.

Offense vs. Northwestern

Wondering who is going to start at quarterback is a waste of time because Michigan's offense is effectively the same regardless of who is under center. But to clarify: if Denard is healthy, he will be the starter. A more important question is how can Michigan fix the interior of its offensive line, which spent last week getting beaten off the line and put on skates against Minnesota. This is a problem.

The good news for Michigan is that Northwestern's defensive line is not particularly dynamic. The two defensive tackles are relatively svelte: Brian Arnfelt is 6'5", 300 lbs, and Sean McEvilly is 6'5", 290 lbs. In addition, both defensive ends are 6'4" and no heavier than 265 lbs. Arnfelt and McEvilly combine for 7.5 TFLs and 4 sacks, but only 40 combined total tackles. Defensive end Tyler Scott has managed 7 sacks and 8.5 TFL this season, but he will have the unenviable task of beating Taylor Lewan off the edge.

Where Northwestern makes it hay defensively is in the linebacker corps, where all three starting linebackers are in the top-four leading tacklers on the team. Those linebackers account for 16.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, and 228 (!!!!!!!) total tackles. Thems a lot of tackles. Oh yeah, and they also have two interceptions, 11 PBUs, and four recovered fumbles. Northwestern may have the best linebacker group in the conference. To show just how important this linebacking group is to Northwestern, aside from strong safety Ibraheim Campbell who has 67 total tackles, the next highest on the team is free safety Jared Carpenter with 37 tackles.

Despite those front-line inefficiencies, Northwestern's defense still stacks up statistically. (As a side note, as is the same with Michigan's lofty rankings, the conference-wide top-50 defense rankings are basically invalid given the Big Ten's ineptitude. That said...) Northwestern is 48th in pass efficiency defense, 23rd in rushing defense, and 35th in scoring defense. They're average in sacks (52nd) and below average at getting into the backfield (82nd). Regardless of these national rankings, though, this is the same team that allowed 41 points to Syracuse, 39 to Penn State, and 29 to Nebraska. This is a good-not-great defense.

The biggest concern for Michigan on this side of the ball is that this game pits weakness against weakness. If Michigan had its offensive line from last year, they would be able to bulldoze an undersized Wildcat defensive line and get to the second level. With the performance of Michigan's interior line this season, that's unlikely, which means Borges will have to rely on either Denard or Gardner to pass against the team's strongest unit.

Defense vs. Northwestern

Against Iowa, Northwestern finally figured out that Kain Coulter was their best player, so he'll be playing quarterback for most/all of the game on Saturday. Coulter isn't much of a passer, but the kid has speed to burn. For the season, Coulter is completing 69.7% of his passes, but for only 5.8 YPA. This is a dink and dunk offense through the air, but a dangerous offense on the ground (they own the 13th ranked rushing offense in the country).

Starting junior running back Venric Mark is averaging 6.5 YPC this season on 166 carries. To complement that attack, Coulter is averaging 5.5 YPC on 114 carries. This may be one of Northwestern's more impressive offenses in recent history. The offensive line features three seniors and two sophomores and will be difficult for Michigan's defensive line to handle.

Through the air, there's not much to be scared of. Despite the fact that they have highly touted recruit Kyle Prater (once a Michigan target), none of the Wildcat wide receivers are very dangerous. Then again, they don't had a quarterback to attack defenses vertically; starting wide receiver Tony Jones averages on 29 yards per game. Regardless of their talent level, this is the kind of passing attack that Michigan's secondary can thrive against. JT Floyd has made a living jumping short routes and Raymon Taylor has proven a sure tackler who is occasionally susceptible to pass interference.

This game will be settled by Michigan's front seven. Playing Nebraska recently will help in the preparation for this Wildcat outfit. They run similar run-first option schemes, but Northwestern has a star at running back where Nebraska was lacking one. Frank Clark made his return last week against Minnesota and promptly showed that he's still undisciplined when maintaining the edge. His ability to fight his instincts will be important. Otherwise, it falls on the shoulders of the usual suspects: Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, and Jordan Kovacs.

The point is, Northwestern's offense is one dimensional, but that dimension can be really dangerous if a defense gets caught out of position. Floyd and Taylor have been improving at getting off blocks on the edge and Ryan has shown he's one of the best linebackers in the league (and more importantly, in space).

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Shut down Northwestern's rushing offense. That's easier said than done, but given their performance against Nebraska two weeks ago in the face of 2008 Michigan Offense, I'm confident that Michigan can hold down this defense for the majority of the game. The Wildcats thrive on big plays, which is something Michigan's defense has been great at shutting down. On the other side of the ball, Michigan needs to find a way to move the ball consistently. The Northwestern linebackers are the real deal, so getting consistent yardage on 1st and 2nd down will be key to sustain drives and give the offense a chance to put points on the board.

How does Northwestern win? Neutralizing Michigan's defensive line will be the first step to a Wildcat win. No non-Alabama opponent has been able to do that, but Northwestern has the offensive line that might be able to. The Wildcat offense will also have to exploit some of the youth in Michigan's front seven. Frank Clark is particularly susceptible to misdirection and Desmond Morgan may struggle with the speed of Coulter and Mark. Defensively, the Wildcats need to win the line of scrimmage and get into the backfield quickly. Teams that shut down Michigan's offense always have a way of disrupting their rhythm and forcing third and long.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 57.16%

Final prediction: Northwestern will struggle to move the ball in this game. Penn State has the only defense on the Wildcat schedule to date that's any good, and Michigan's defense is almost certainly better than the Nittany Lions'. Northwestern averages 237 rushing yards per game, but Michigan will hold them under 200 and somewhere closer to 4 YPC than 5 YPC. When Michigan has the ball, however, the Northwestern linebackers prove to be as disruptive as they have been all season. Michigan once again loses the battle at the line of scrimmage and Fitz Toussaint fails to break 50 yards rushing. Denard plays but not particularly well; feeling pressure from the media and Gardner's performance last week, Denard throws two bad interceptions in this game but also manages to break a long run. It's a low-scoring game that Michigan wins in a nail biter. Northwestern 17 - Michigan 20

Quinton Washington can shed your block

Despite the fantastic year that Jake Ryan is having, Michigan's most improved defensive player is still Quinton Washington, with a bullet. Washington, along with Will Campbell, are major reasons that Michigan was able to shut down Le'Veon Bell against Michigan State. What follows is another piece of evidence in favor of Quinton Washington for President and one of the best examples of a Michigan defender getting off a block to make a play that we've seen all season.

Michigan has just punted after a three-and-out following Michigan State's only touchdown drive of the game. MSU comes out in a two-wide I-formation look. Michigan is in its pseudo-nickel with Jake Ryan lined up over the slot receiver and only two linebackers in the box. Michigan's defensive ends are shaded just outside the offensive tackles while Will Campbell is covering the strongside guard and Washington is in the weakside A-gap.

As the ball is snapped, Washington engages the right guard (highlighted). The MSU center is chip blocking Washington before releasing to the second level. MSU is running a weakside-iso.

MSU's center is now releasing to the second level to block Kenny Demens. Washington and Roh and singled up on the MSU right guard and tackle, respectively.

This is the moment of truth for Le'Veon Bell. He has to make one of two cuts. Desmond Morgan is in good position on the backside run fill, but he's only able to fill this hole because Will Campbell has stopped the MSU left guard from releasing to the second level. Bell is forced to cut to his right.

But Bell didn't expect Washington to annihilate the MSU right guard. The lane that was clear for Bell a moment ago is now occupied by Washington. Bell is forced the bounce the run outside again, but Craig Roh is getting good push on the MSU right tackle.

Washington is now lunging to tackle Bell. He won't make the tackle, but he's already accomplished his goal. In a moment, you'll see JT Floyd flying downhill as Bell tries to bounce outside Roh.

Bell has now totally broken contain, which allows Roh to release from the MSU right tackle and chase Bell. Floyd is now the contain defender running downhill to tackle Bell, but he's making sure to maintain outside leverage.

But why keep contain when you can just chop down Bell mid-stride?

Video

The Takeaway
I'm starting a Kickstarter. It will raise money to buy Greg Mattison pies. Let me know if you're interested.

When coaches talk about players needing better technique, getting off blocks better, and maintaining leverage, this is the play that they show in the film room. It all starts with the defensive line: Will Campbell nullified the MSU left guard allowing Desmond Morgan to fill the backside run gap; Craig Roh kept outside contain, forcing Bell to bounce to the sideline and allowing Michigan's secondary to come downhill and attack the ball carrier; and Quinton Washington stayed firm on his blocker and was able to shed the block to cut off Bell's primary running lane.

This is the kind of performance the defensive line has been turning in all season and something that was unthinkable two years ago. The discipline to stay in the proper lanes is one thing, but Campbell recognizing he needs to stop the MSU lineman from releasing to the linebackers and Washington's ability to toss aside MSU's blocker in order to make the proper run fill are examples of coaching that the team didn't get under the previous regime.

Defensive end coaching points

Readers know that typical weekly content usually consists of two things: awesome blitzes and blown coverage/blocking/reads. Well, in a game that Michigan wins 44-13 and one in which Michigan spent most of the game in its base 4-3 set, there's not so much of that. However, there were a few things that the defensive ends did in this game that either confused or built on some positive trends we've seen developing for a while now. First, the bad--or weird.

Why are you lining up like that?

This happened last year as well...

In both instances, the defensive end that drops off into coverage is lined up at least a full yard behind the other offensive linemen. It has happened too frequently for this to be a random occurrence, but it seems like an obvious tell for opposing QBs/perceptive linemen. It's hard to argue with results, though.

The only explanation I can see for this is that Mattison would rather the defensive ends be a step or two closer to their coverage zone and hint at the drop before the snap than be unable to get to the coverage zone. This makes sense when you think about Mattison's blitzes as well: most of the time they're designed to overwhelm one side of the offensive line and not as concerned with each offensive lineman be confused about his assignment.

Regardless, if anyone can give me a better explanation for why Mattison is coaching the defensive ends to do this, it would be appreciated.

Superfluous Video
This play ended as a completed hitch route that had nothing to do with the zone drop, but if you want to see it happen:


Batting down passes
This is especially pertinent after Monday Night Football this week in which JJ Watt proved on national television that he's one of the best defensive tackles in the league if only because he swats down countless passes at the line of scrimmage, but one of the things Michigan's defensive ends have been doing all season (and dating back to last year) is batting down passes. Most notably, Frank Clark had the PBU/interception in the Sugar Bowl last year, but it's a trend that has continued.

In a lot of passing situations, it looks like Mattison has instructed the defensive ends to rush upfield and relatively far outside. The following play is not a great example of this, but it was the only instance of it I saw in the game. The lineman you'll be watching is Craig Roh (the defensive end on the top of the screen).

Roh is shaded pretty far inside the offensive tackle (I believe he's playing a 3- or 4-tech). Despite that alignment, when he begins his rush, he starts going outside. The reason this isn't a great example of this play is because the offensive tackle tries to cut block him.

Roh does a great job avoiding the cut block and now has a clear lane to the QB...

... but instead of rushing directly at TerBush, Roh reads his eyes and forces him to come off his first read.

TerBush is forced to pull the ball down and the Purdue running back will recognize the pass rush and block Roh.

Totally Superfluous Video
This play actually ends as a fairly long completion for Purdue after TerBush scrambles in the pocket for a while, but this illustrates what Michigan's defensive ends have been doing all season.


Clark has been the most notable defensive end to go for these pass breakups, but with Roh doing it here, there's a good chance that this is something the coaches are instructing them to do. In addition, it takes a level of foresight to rush as widely as Roh does here and Clark does frequently for this to be a lucky occurrence.

Running away

Michigan 44 - Purdue 13
Preview

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Usually a win against a typical Purdue team would not inspire a lot of confidence for the future, but given all of the Borges vs. Denard talk the last two weeks, this game represents one of the best marriages of the two talents we've seen to date. During the bye week, Borges said he was going to rewatch every play he had ever called at Michigan and it appeared he followed up on that promise. Gone from Michigan's offense were the downfield heaves, replaced by the short passing game Denard excels at. Denard carried the ball 24 times, his second-highest total this season, most of which were the inverted veer--Michigan's most successful running play all season. Though the level of competition was not up to Notre Dame's defense, this was a return to the style of offense that turned Denard into one of the nation's most dangerous players.

This game was also another building block in the not-so-straw house of Michigan's defense. This Boilermaker offense, while not prolific, is still the most recent team to score an offensive touchdown on Notre Dame and had properly rolled the cupcakes you would expect from a good offense (48 against Eastern Kentucky, 54 against Eastern Michigan, and 51 against Marshall). Putting aside Raymon Taylor's gift pick-six* Michigan held Purdue to just 56 yards on 26 carries (2.2 YPC) and only 157 yards through the air on 23/35. Perhaps the most promising stat of the game is that Michigan's top four tacklers were all front-seven guys (Kenny Demens, Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, and Craig Roh). Michigan was controlling the line of scrimmage and hitting Purdue ball carriers at the point of attack. When Jordan Kovacs only makes one tackle in a dominating defensive performance, you know things are looking up.

Then again, Purdue might be terrible, or simply Purdue. Pessimism about this game was born more of Michigan's inadequacies than Purdue's talent, so this win doesn't do a lot more than assure fans that Borges can get this figured out and Greg Mattison and his defensive staff are miracle workers. While I was a lot higher on the defense coming into the year than most people, even I didn't expect performances like this. Despite the loss of Blake Countess, the secondary is humming along, the defensive line started as a question mark but has turned into consistent good-not-great performers, and the linebackers are coming along albeit slower than most would like.

Most importantly, this game gets Michigan back on track. Losses to Notre Dame suck, but they don't have any impact on Michigan's pursuit of the Big Ten title. Holding serve against underdogs and beating Michigan State and Nebraska should more or less assure Michigan a spot in the Big Ten title game against... something from the Leaders division (probably Wisconsin).

*This was Michigan's first pick-six from a member of the secondary since Donovan Warren picked off Ricky Stanzi in 2009 and took it to the house. Michigan also got a pick-six from Brandon Herron against Western Michigan in 2011. This lack of production isn't totally surprising given Michigan's bereft secondary the last few years, but those are dire numbers.

Bullets

• Fitz Toussaint. Toussaint is not broken, but Michigan's offensive line might be. The only way Michigan could move the ball on the ground is when Denard read a Purdue defender who didn't stay disciplined. Otherwise, the Purdue front seven tore up Michigan's offensive line. That's how Fitz Toussaint goes from a 1,000 yard rusher to getting 19 yards on 17 carries against Purdue. Sure, a few of those were carries form the one yard line that netted exactly as much as was needed, but the interior of Michigan's offensive line is precisely as shaky as it has seemed all year.
• As a bonus, during the game, the Big Ten Network put up a stat about Denard's rushing this season. Running left, he was averaging 8+ YPC; middle, ~6 YPC; and right ~4 YPC. This is the perfect visualization for the talent on Michigan's offensive line.

• Update: (directional running at right)
• There wasn't much receiving to be had in this game as Michigan dominated on the ground, but the names in the boxscore are what you would expect: Gallon, Gardner, Roundtree, and Funchess. Those are your receivers going forward with occasional appearances by Drew Dileo.
• The Purdue offense is probably terrible, but they couldn't get anything done in this game. More impressively, I think Michigan spent almost the entire game in a base defensive set without much blitzing. They brought in the nickel package a few times, but this game was won by being better at the point of attack.
• The Denard/Vincent Smith fumble was crappy, but I'm pretty sure it was because of a nickel blitz off the edge. Secondary blitzes on the zone read continue to scare me.

Prediction Tracker
Preview:

Final prediction: It's hard being optimistic about this game given Short and Denard's most recent performance. Michigan's offense is going to stall a lot in this game. But I'm not sure that Purdue's offense will have much success. The over/under for this game is somewhere in the mid- to high-50s, which, if I were a betting man, I'd take the under. This is a low-scoring game with both quarterbacks making a number of mistakes. Short's strength and Michigan's interior line weaknesses actually dictate how this game goes, but Denard breaks a long run that ends up being the difference. Michigan 17 - Purdue 16.

So basically all wrong. Kawann Short ended up being a major factor in the game (8 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 pass breakup), but wasn't able to get to Denard on passing downs. He helped shut down Fitz Toussaint but did little else. Michigan's offense didn't stall at all, punting only twice and missing a long field goal. Also, it's a good thing I'm not a betting man because this game went over the O/U.

Next Week
The next terrible Big Ten team Michigan takes on is terrible Illinois at the Big House. I saw something to this effect Tweeted out this weekend, but in Illinois' last 11 games against BCS competition, Illinois' points for are: 14 (Wisconsin), 7 (Penn State), 14 (Arizona State), 24 (Western Michigan), 20 (UCLA, last year), 7 (Minnesota), 17 (Wisconsin), 14 (Michigan), 7 (Penn State), 14 (Purdue), and 7 (Ohio State). This Nathan Scheelhaase might not be very good. The only thing that gives me pause about this game is Michigan's struggles against Air Force's offense this season, but Illinois does not run the wishbone and their defense appears to be non-existant.

Linebacker/nickelback blitz vs. Air Force

Staples of this blog last year were posts that lauded Greg Mattison's awesome NFL-style zone blitzes. Michigan didn't really use them all that often against Alabama and rarely had an opportunity to against Air Force because of the offense they run. But fortunately, on second viewing of the game, one blitz late in the first half stood out as another piece of Mattison mastery.

(If you're new to the site this year, above is a diagram of the blitz. Michigan's players are all denoted by their numbers. The lines with arrows at the end indicate a blitz. The lines with squares at the end indicate a zone drop. The light-yellow squares indicated the approximate defensive zones.)

With six minutes left in the first half, Michigan gets Air Force in a 3rd and 8 passing down. The team lines up in its Super Nickel package: Craig Roh (#88) and Jibreel Black (#55) at defensive tackle, Frank Clark (#57) and Cam Gordon (!!!; #4) at defensive end, two linebackers, three corners, and two safeties. Almost any time Gordon lines up with his hand in the ground as a defensive end, I get angry, but this is the first time Mattison has actually done something innovative with it.

As the ball is snapped, all four defensive linemen begin to rush. In a moment, Gordon (bottom of the screen) will drop out into coverage. Courtney Avery (playing nickelback) and Joe Bolden (strongside linebacker) are also blitzing. What this will do is overload the strongside of the offensive line with pass rushers.

Below, you can see Gordon dropping into coverage. Roh and Black both slanted toward the weakside of the field, forcing their offensive line couterparts to follow them that way. This leave the Air Force left guard to block both Bolden and Avery (highlighted).

The left guard decides to block Avery (highlighted), giving Joe Bolden a free lane to the Air Force quarterback.

Black and Roh also beat their blocks, so there are now three Michigan blitzers in the face of the Falcon QB.

Before getting the sack, QB Connor Dietz throws the ball off his back foot (hey, I've seen that before) out of bounds.

Video

The Takeaway

This is what you pay defensive coordinators for. Much like some of Michigan's blitzes last year, the defense overloads one side of the offensive line in order to get a free rusher on the quarterback. Often, Mattison is able to do that with only four rushers. Here, he uses five because, well, he wants to.

You may have noticed that Jordan Kovacs is all alone in the deep middle of the field with only zone coverage underneath. This play is designed so that the need for Kovacs to make a play is the worst-case scenario. The blitz is intended to force opposing quarterbacks to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible, hence the five underneath zones.

The good thing about this particular blitz is the personnel and zone assignments. A few times last year, Mattison's zone blitzes failed because linebackers or defensive linemen were asked to make unrealistic zone drops into coverage and failed to get into position on time. Here, the only "defensive lineman" dropping into coverage is a wide receiver free safety strongside linebacker. The rest of the zone coverage comes from linebackers, corners, and safeties who are already positioned near their coverage zones. Most importantly, the blitz did exactly what it was supposed to do, forcing an incompletion and getting the defense off the field.

Preview: Alabama 2012

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#8 Michigan vs. #2 Alabama

Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Kickoff 8:00 pm EST

ABC

Forecast: Indoors

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Last year
Alabama: 12-1, National Champs :(. You probably already know Alabama's story. With the only loss on their schedule a plodding 9-6 game against LSU, Nick Saban's squad redeemed themselves by pounding Les Miles and LSU into dust in the national championship game. Led by returning quarterback AJ McCarron and NFL-bound Trent Richardson, Alabama's offense was good-not-great (16th rushing offense, 69th passing offense, 35th passing efficiency, 20th scoring offense).

What held the team afloat was a legendarily great defense. The Crimson Tide ranked first in most defensive categories last year: rushing defense (72 yards/game), pass defense (111.46 yards/game), pass efficiency defense, total defense (183.62 yards/game), and scoring defense (8.15 points/game [!!!]). Alabama had as many games last year in which they shut their opponent out (3; North Texas, Vanderbilt, LSU in the National Championship game) as they did games where their opponents scored more than two touchdowns (3; Arkansas, Georgia Southern, Auburn). They never allowed more than 21 points and only allowed teams to score in double digits in 5 games.

Michigan: 11-2, Sugar Bowl Champ. You also know Michigan's story. Brady Hoke, Greg Mattison, Al Borges, Denard, Brady Hoke, Junior Hemingway, Brady Hoke, Ohio, Suger Bowl LOLZ, Brady Hoke. Suffering only losses to Michigan State and Iowa, the transition from Rodriguez to Hoke went quite a bit smoother than the transition to the previous regime. Denard, though statistically worse, was still Denard and was able to sustain an effective (if often lucky) offensive unit.

On the other side of the ball, Greg Mattison turned a horrible defense into a, well, kind of a good defense. By the season's end, Michigan's defense was 39th in rushing defense, 16th in passing defense, 17th in total defense, and 6th (!!!) in scoring defense. That scoring defense was bolstered by an inordinate amount of recovered fumbles, but there are plenty of signs of tangible improvement brought about by the coaching staff. Departed is essentially everyone important from the defensive line, David Molk, and Junior Hemingway. Otherwise, Michigan returns almost their entire team, something Alabama doesn't have the luxury of in 2012.

Offense vs. Alabama

Fair or not, this game will determine whether or not Denard Robinson has a chance to win the Heisman. Aside from Heisman candidates needing big-game highlight reels, it's hard to see Denard having a mediocre game against the Alabama defense. It's either going to be an ugly 9-24, 3 INT-game or something approximating his performance against Ohio State (14-17, 3 TDs, 0 INTs). I'm not trying to project which will occur, but the former is probably more likely.

Though Alabama loses a ton of talent and starters from their defensive roster (Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron, DeQuan Menzie, Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and Josh Chapman, among others), years of oversigning means that unproven 5-stars step in at almost every position; think Will Campbell only without the years of struggling with technique, weight, and motivation.

Alabama runs Nick Saban's traditional 3-4. He's very good at coaching it and his defenses are always very good. The secondary will run a man-coverage variant that involves pattern reading (read Ace's Fi Fie Fo Film for an explanation; as a side note Ace, change the name of this column). Unfortunately, Denard hasn't really seen a defense that runs these kinds of schemes. His ability to properly read and react to what the secondary is doing will go a long way toward determining if Michigan even has a chance in this game.

Up front, the 3-4 defense means that the linebackers will be looking run-first. With the expected suspension of Fitzgerald Toussaint for the game, finding any running lanes will be difficult. Hopefully--maybe?--Denard will be able to zone read the defense to death, but Alabama's defense didn't get to be great by being undisciplined.

My biggest concern is that Al Borges will refuse to stretch the Alabama defense horizontally. Without any true deep threats (Devin Gardner maybe?), Michigan will need to put stress on the Alabama defense by thinning them out across the field. The only plays we saw last year that would be able to do that were the tunnel screens to Jeremy Gallon and the throwback screens to Vincent Smith. Those are going to work approximately once each against this defense. I fear the rest of the offense will be Michigan running its head into a wall like the Sugar Bowl.

Defense vs. Alabama

Michigan returns a deep secondary, quality linebackers, and Craig Roh. Michigan can only beat Alabama if the defense shows improvement over last year, much of which has to start with the defensive line. Alabama is a run-first, pro-style offense with a spectacular offensive line. This is not the kind of game that you want to break in a bunch of unproven starters on the D-line, but that's where we are.

Alabama's offense frankly doesn't scare me that much. The loss of Trent Richardson should not be undersold. He was, without a doubt, the best offensive player on a relatively mediocre offense last year. Incoming junior starter Eddie Lacy is no pushover (151 carries, 1,080 yards, 7.15 yards/carry), but he's also not the guy that went #3 overall in the NFL draft. Lacy will get his yards in this game on the strength of his offensive line, not because he'll outrun Michigan's defense. If Will Campbell and Quinton Washington can hold up at the defensive tackle slots, Michigan might be able to shut down the Alabama rushing attack.

Stopping that running attack is crucial because it starts to negate the effect of AJ McCarron's play action. McCarron is basically a game manager with a really good cast of supporting players. Last year, he completed 66% of his passes but only accounted for 16 TDs (5 INTs). McCarron had a really high passer rating last year, but in the same way that Wisconsin quarterbacks (not named Russell Wilson) are ranked highly nationally.

With Michigan returning everyone on the back end of the defense, Alabama is going to have to win this game on the ground, which they can almost certainly do unless the defensive line ends up being much better than expected. The good news is that an oversized Jibreel Black at weakside defensive end is the kind of player that you want to try and stuff a punishing, downhill running attack. Keeping outside leverage will also be key. Pray that Desmond Morgan and Jake Ryan have finally figure that out.

Prediction
How does Michigan win: Michigan wins if Sugar Bowl. In terms of talent, Michigan is dominated at almost every position, and despite the advantage the Wolverine coaching staff has over most other play callers, Nick Saban is not to be trifled with. Alabama has a young, mostly unproven defense entering their first game of the season at a "neutral" site. There's a chance that Denard makes mincemeat of the Alabama defense, and the game's turnovers/broken plays all go Michigan's way. That's really the only shot the Wolverine's have unless Devin Gardner is instantly Justin Blackmon.

How Does Alabama win: If everything goes to plan. Vegas doesn't really get things wrong all that often, so an Alabama -14 line is not to be trifled with. They are vastly more talented and have an equal-or-better coaching staff. Michigan really does need a lot of breaks to win this game. Otherwise, it's about damage control and trying to not get blown out for the sake of the Big Ten's national reputation.

Arbitrary chance Michigan wins: 10%

Final prediction: I'd love to say Michigan can win this game but there's almost no logical way at looking at this and predicting an M victory. Alabama pulls away in the first half and Michigan tries to chip away at the lead as the game wears on but doesn't beat the spread. Alabama 31 - Michigan 16

What to expect: Defensive Line 2012

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Offensive Line and Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle Projected Starters: Quinton Washington, Will Campbell
Perhaps the biggest question this offseason--certainly the question most frequently asked--was about the progress of former 5-star recruit Will Campbell. As the highlight of the 2009 recruiting class, Campbell drew effusive praise from just about everywhere. MGoBlog said thusly:

General Excitement Level: Very high. Ratings + offers = very high likelihood to be a multi-year starter and NFL draft pick.
Projection: Immediately into the defensive tackle rotation, probably behind Sagesse to start. Potentially works his way into a starting job by the end of the year; sophomore through senior year he should be somewhere between Watson and what Watson could have been if he was mean.

Unfortunately, things haven't exactly followed the script. Working under a bunch of incompetent defensive staffs for his first two years on campus, Campbell struggled with his technique, weight, and work ethic and rarely if ever saw the field. In his first three years, he has accounted for only 8 tackles, 11 assists, 3.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 4 pass break ups (appearing in 17 games). For comparison's sake, in just his senior season, Mike Martin accounted for 20 tackles, 44 assists, 6 TFLs, and 3.5 sacks.

After jettisoning three starters from the 2011 defensive line including standout nose tackle Martin, Campbell enters his senior season as the guy on the defensive line. The good news is that Michigan doesn't need Campbell to be Mike Martin to have a great defensive line. The bad news is we don't really know what we can expect from Campbell on a down-to-down basis.

What this team needs from Campbell is an every-down nose tackle/3-tech DT that can hold up against the run and generate nominal pressure against the pass. Having a penetrating DT the likes of Martin is a luxury, not a necessity for great defenses. The pass rush from the defensive line should be generated primarily by the defensive ends (about which more later), not the inside. If Campbell can stay gap sound and hold his ground against double teams on the run, Michigan's experienced linebackers should be able to make the proper reads and tackle.

Of course, Campbell won't be alone up front. Flanking him, presumably at the nose tackle position if recent camp reports are to be believed, will be Quinton Washington, the 2009 offensive guard recruit who has seen effectively zero time in his career. Washington is a redshirt junior who has spent more time blocking on extra points than tackling people smaller than him. Defensively, he's amassed a whopping 1 tackle and 2 assists.

Because he's going to be a starter, the coaches have been pumping him up throughout camp, praising his abilities. At 6'4", 300 lbs, he won't be much of a slasher, but he may be able to hold his ground much like Campbell. As a position switch, leverage and technique remain a concern, but if he can stay sound in the middle, Michigan should remain stout against the run and rely on blitzes and the defensive ends for pass rush.

The Backups: Ondre Pipkins, Richard Ash, Matt Godin, Willie Henry, Chris Rock

Backing up the defensive tackle starters are a bunch of true freshmen and unproven recruits. The first two off the bench will likely be true freshman dwarf planets Ondre Pipkins and Richard Ash. Pipkins has the recruiting profile of an early contributor but at 6'3", 340 lbs, conditioning and weight are a huge concern. Pipkins likely won't see much time early in the year, but as the season rolls on and he spends more time in the strength and conditioning program, we may see him slim down and start to get snaps.

The other likely backup is Richard Ash, a former Florida commit whose offer was rescinded after he showed at a UF camp wildly overweight. Rich Rodriguez snapped him up shortly after that, and Ash has spent his Michigan career--wait for it--sitting on the bench and out of shape. Coming in as a redshirt sophomore, Ash has lost a considerable amount of weight and should probably see plenty of time on the field this year subbing in for Campbell or Washington, whoever is more in need of a breather.

Behind those, it gets even more tenuous with true freshmen Matt Godin and Willie Henry, both middling recruits lacking the size needed to be competitive. Barring injuries, at least one of these two will redshirt--likely the rail-thin Godin. Michigan also returns redshirt freshman Chris Rock who comes in way underweight at 6'5", 267 lbs. The point is, pray for health and competency from the starting defensive tackles because behind them is basically a straw house.

Defensive End Projected Starters: Jibreel Black, Craig Roh

After a breakout freshman year, starting strongside defensive end Gavin Rossdale Craig Roh has had a relatively disappointing career. With 7.5 TFLs and 2 sacks in his rookie campaign, Roh's numbers dipped in his sophomore year (5.5 TFLs, 0.5 sacks; playing primarily as a linebacker [!!!]) and rebounded slightly in his third season (8 TFL, 4 sacks), albeit not living up to the hype created by his freshman year. When this year is over, looking at Roh's stat line will likely be a good indicator of how successful the Wolverine defense was.

With Martin and Ryan Van Bergen gone to the NFL, production from the defensive line is going to rest solely on Roh and weakside defensive end Jibreel Black. As a consensus four-star recruit and with three years of starting experience under his belt, Roh is the unequivocal leader of the defensive line, and the box score needs to show as much. Since Michigan runs a 4-3 under, the defensive line is naturally shaded toward the weakside of the line, forcing Roh into double teams against tackles and tight ends, but he has the strength and speed to still generate some pass rush. Against the run, he'll need to maintain the edge and not get pushed off the line against those double teams. At 6'5", 281 lbs, he probably has the size to do that.

On the weakside will likely be Jibreel Black, a poor man's Brandon Graham, right down to his jersey. Black has shown flashes of greatness in his first two years but has never really made much of an impact in the box score. Charting only 1.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks in his career, Black will need to start lighting up the backfield the way Graham used to. Fortunately, he'll have every opportunity to. While Roh will be busy sucking up double teams on the strongside of the field, Black will be getting one-on-one matchups against tackles. While not the best speed rusher, Black should be able to combine his speed and strength (6'2", 279 lbs) to get around or through opposing offensive tackles.

For Michigan's defense to maintain its level of play from last year, Roh and Black will need to combine for somewhere around 20-25 TFLs and 15 sacks. Fortunately, they'll have opportunities to do this. Both Greg Mattison's schemes (able to free up just about anyone on the defensive line) and Michigan's experienced secondary (which should increase the amount of coverage sacks we've seen from the defensive line in recent years) should enable the defensive ends to light up the score board.

The Backups: Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Mario Ojemudia, Nathan Brink, Keith Heitsman, Tom Strobel, Chris Wormley :(

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

First off the bench to relieve Roh will be former walk-on Nathan Brink who saw some snaps last year. Brink has come in for a ton of praise from the coaching staff during camp but will be a noticeable downgrade from Roh. Brink won't bring the penetrating athleticism that Roh offers, but if he's able to hold up against the run (and the double teams that come along with them), Michigan's secondary should be able to survive without much pass rush. Behind Brink is redshirt freshman Keith Heitzman as well as true freshman Tom Strobel. Chris Wormley, a highly touted recruiting, suffered a knee injury that will keep me out for the entire season.

While the strongside defensive end depth is a little harrowing, weakside has come in for a fair amount of praise during camp and has the recruiting profile to match. Brennen Beyer and Frank Clark each saw time last season, with Clark producing one of the biggest plays of the Sugar Bowl, intercepting Logan Thomas on a pass rush to set up Michigan's second touchdown. But the first guy off the bench (at least according to most camp reports) will be true freshman Mario Ojemudia. At 6'3", 231 lbs, Ojemudia is probably too small to get serious playing time, but everyone has been raving about his motor and skills during practice. If he can bulk up during the season, chances are he becomes the primary WDE backup at the end of the season.

Don't expect too much from the defensive end backups. Getting to the quarterback will probably be tough with this personnel, so with the backups in, I'd expect more blitzes from Mattison in an effort to generate some pressure. If these guys can simply hold up against the run and maintain outside leverage, once again, we can expect the linebackers to clean up. Injuries to any position on the defensive line is spooky for this team's prospects, but at this point, there are at least highly touted recruits backing up the more experienced starters. 

2012 Spring Game thoughts

Angela J. Cesere | AnnArbor.com

I will try to have some more comprehensive thoughts once I can download a torrent of the game, but the spring game left a few impressions that I should probably write down.

• Gardner. All the talk after the spring game focused on Devin Gardner's, shall we say, less that encouraging performance. After last year's spring game, I said...

  Devin, who has the size, still has little or no technique. Watching him fling a 40-yard pass from his off foot was the most Pryor-Armpunt thing I've ever seen him do. Unless the new staff can drastically improve his fundamentals, Gardner won't ever see significant playing time at Michigan, and that's disappointing.

  ...which is basically a carbon copy of what I'll say this year. Gardner's throwing motion is still unsustainable, which causes his accuracy to be inconsistent. He's not even reading the defenses particularly well. That interception: you can't make that throw. Gardner has done nothing to change my stance on his prospects: he will never see significant time at QB unless there's an injury. Next year, it's the Shane Morris Show.
• Wide receiver. Holy smokes, Michigan desperately needs these. While most people are centering their concern on the offensive and defensive lines (and rightfully so, about which more later), wide receiver is nearly as barren as the linemen depth chart. If this game doesn't turn up the volume on the Gardner-to-WR chatter, nothing will. I didn't take note of everyone out there (did Roundtree even play in the game?), but regardless, Michigan has no one to catch passes that will threaten opposing defenses.
• Offensive line. The first team offensive line looked fine, barring the two fumbled snaps, which are probably 50% on the quarterback, but beyond them, yikes. There is nothing there. If I can recall correctly, redshirt junior Erik Gunderson played a lot of right tackle in the game and reprised Mark Huyge's role in Spartans in the Backfield. Defensive linemen were routinely getting past the second unit, largely unabated. Pray for health because if not, this team is sunk.
• Defensive line. Adequate. Totally adequate. Craig Roh looked good as the strongside end. Will Campbell was completely average. Otherwise, there was nothing particularly impressive or concerning about the defensive line. It won't be as good as last year, but it won't be a major liability this year (there's almost no way this prediction doesn't come back to bite me in the ass).
• Secondary. The secondary looked pretty good actually. Greg Mattison seemed comfortable putting most of the secondary in man coverage throughout the spring game. Caveats about competition aside, the coverage down the field looked really solid, which will open things up for Mattison in the blitzing game.
• Edge issues. The defense still showed some problems maintain edge responsibilities, which ugh, but fine. I'd like to see those things ironed out by now, but last year, the coaches recognize and addressed those issues quickly.
• Bellomy. Russell Bellomy came in as the nominal #2 quarterback. Despite my desire to see Gardner move to wide receiver, I'm not sure I want Bellomy as Denard's backup. He showed good pocket presence and some ability to make plays, but he has a high school arm and only decent accuracy. He's not a quality backup yet.
• Running backs. Thomas Rawls wins the annual Spring Game award for Most Impressive Player Likely to Spend the Season on the Bench. Rawls is a power runner that showed good vision and an ability to get upfield. This year still belongs to Fitz Toussaint, though. Rawls will be a good option when Toussaint needs a breather, but he doesn't offer much that Fitz doesn't already bring to the table. The biggest concern with Rawls isn't even about his play: I'm worried the coaches will try and revive the I-formation running game behind Rawls' shoulder pads. As we saw once again in the spring game, this team is ill-equipped to run from the I formation.
  
  In other running back news, Vincent Smith is still a better blocker than you. Hoorah for consistent third-down backs.

Overall, this was a pretty nothing performance. It's much more difficult to make broad, sweeping statements when the team isn't switching coaches or quarterbacks. The game probably induced more fears than it appeased concerns, but that's probably to be expected. In reality, it really just confirmed what we already knew: the defensive line will be functional, the offensive line is thin, Gardner isn't a quarterback, and the offense is going to rely far too heavily on Denard.

That's about all I can remember from a single viewing of the game. I don't know if I'm going to picture page anything from the game or not, but I might. Frankly, I don't remember seeing anything that was particularly noteworthy schematically, but if something caught your eye, let me know and I'll take a look. If other thoughts pop up throughout subsequent viewings, I'll try and bring them up.

Preview: Ohio 2011

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Ohio (6-5) vs. #15 Michigan (9-2)

The Big House

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ABC

Forecast: Low 50s, 50% chance of rain

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Last week
#21 Penn State 20 - Ohio State 14. Last week, Ohio State continued their season of futility with a loss to Penn State. Rather than hilariously losing to Purdue in overtime after a late botched extra point, Ohio State lost after falling behind 10-0 in the first quarter and never climbing back into the game. The offense could muster only 289 yards and allowed Penn State's anemic offense to put up 327, though both teams were held scoreless in the second half.

Ohio State star senior receiver DeVier Posey played his first game and caught four passes for 66 yards, but that wasn't enough to bolster another awful passing day from Braxton Miller (7/17, 83 yards, 4.9 YPA, 1 TD). Miller had a decent day on the ground, rushing 18 times for 105 yards and Dan Herron averaged 4.2 YPC on 18 carries.

On the other side of the ball, Matt "Farvian Walk-On" McGloin wasn't much better (just watching this guy play this season makes me break out in hives; how did Michigan's defense make him actually look like Favre last year? Oh, nevermind). McGloin went 10/18 for 88 yards and 1 INT. Stephon Green did most of the damage on the ground, averaging 5.8 YPC on 16 carries while Silas Redd averaged 7.9 YPC on 8 carries. The thing that stuck out during the game was just how bad Ohio State's linebackers were against the run. It appears they attended the Obi Ezeh school of gap filling. PSU's running backs were finding holes at the line of scrimmage and no linebackers in sight. The hope is this continues because, well, dang.

#16 Nebraska 17 - #18 Michigan 45. Game column. Michigan followed up a dominating defensive performance against offensive-line-challenged Illinois with another great game against Nebraska, limiting one of the better running attacks in the country to 4.5 YPC on 31 carries. More impressively, the defense was barely on the field, whether it was from Nebraska special team turnovers or the 3/13 performance on third down. Infamous duck thrower Taylor Martinez was as advertised: ducky. He was 9/23 for 122 yards and 1 TD but looked awful getting there. He can't be totally blamed:

That's a run play, but Michigan's defensive line was getting that sort of penetration all game. Martinez was only sacked a handful of times but constantly had pressure in his face.

On offense, Denard scrambled, which was the unit's biggest revelation. When he wasn't dropping dimes to Martavious Odoms in the back of the endzone, Denard was scampering through a vacated middle of the field as Nebraska's secondary played exclusively man coverage. Unfortunately, he was indecisive on many of those runs, turning what should have been a big day into a mediocre 3.6 YPC day on 23 carries. Fitz Toussaint picked up the slack, though, averaging 4.8 YPC on 29 carries.

Offense vs. Ohio State
Though Ohio State has been universally awful this season, their one bright spot is defensively where they rank about where you'd expect an Ohio State team: 42nd in rushing defense, 35th in pass efficiency defense, 16th in total defense, and 14th in scoring defense. Aside from the rushing defense numbers, that sounds about right. Those numbers are largely because of defensive end John Simon. Short of Whitney Mercilus, Simon will be the best defensive end Michigan faces this year. The matchup between him and Mark Huyge in pass protection looms large, but any time I say something like that, Huyge comes through with a competent effort. To date Simon has 13.5 TFL and 6 sacks.

The other dangerman on Ohio State's defense is defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins whose numbers are similarly harrowing: 10 TFL, 3 sacks. He's not quite as terrifying, however, as the strength of Michigan's offensive line is David Molk on the interior.

The linebackers, as previously mentioned, are suspect. None of them have particularly great numbers (their starting linebackers combine for 6 sacks and 11.5 TFL). Ohio State is a prototypical cover-2 defense that doesn't blitz a ton, so those numbers aren't totally unexpected, but their ability to fill in run support was terrible against Penn State. Given that the team is 42nd in run defense, it's been that way for much of the year.

With the strength of Michigan's offensive line and the lack of discipline from the Buckeye linebackers, Fitz Toussaint and Denard should find plenty of room to run between the tackles in this game. Chances are the Buckeyes will load the box with their strong safety making it difficult to bounce runs to the outside, but Michigan should average solidly in the 4.5-5.5 YPC range.

Through the air, we'll see. It's expected to rain, which probably favors Ohio State (Miller can't throw anyway, so this makes Michigan's offense a bit more one dimensional), but if the weather holds up, the Buckeye secondary isn't all that harrowing. They're currently starting two juniors, a sophomore, and a redshirt freshman. They've accounted for 7 interceptions between them, which isn't spectacular. More interestingly, the safeties (Christian Bryant and CJ Barnett) are the #3 and #4 tacklers on the team, respectively, which lends credence to the linebacker-suck theory.

Per usual, this comes down to Good Denard vs. Evil Denard. Borges has shown a few new passing concepts in the last few weeks that have all had good results. Expect at least one or two new formations and route combination that pick up good yardage. If it's raining and both teams are having trouble throwing the ball, Evil Denard will likely rear his head a few times. Pressure off the edge from Simon or up the middle from Hankins will probably cause a few errant throws, but I don't expect Michigan's passing game to be significantly worse against the Buckeyes than it was against Illinois or Nebraska.

Defense vs. Ohio State: Where the LOLephants roam
Anyone who has watched the Buckeyes this year knows that the offense is barely functional. Watching Braxton Miller throw the ball is basically a redux of Terrelle Pryor during his freshman year: lots of armpunts, terribly inaccurate, and rarely effective. Given the current state of Michigan's secondary, chances are Ohio State will forgo passing the ball as much as possible. Floyd and Countess have been too good in coverage and Miller too bad passing for this to make a dramatic swing during this game.

Third and long will be interesting. In the last few weeks, Mattison has unleashed hell with Michigan's "okie" package, but Miller is a better athlete than Nathan Scheelhaase or Taylor Martinez and is better at escaping pressure than both. Fortunately, Michigan's zone blitzing is the kind of scheme that can confuse a young quarterback--especially one prone to scrambling--and force him into the strength of the defense. Expect at least a few moments when you say to yourself, "awesome blitz call" during this game. Simply put, Miller is not a threat through the air, even with the recent return of Posey, who Floyd will be Snuggie-ing all day.

The run game is where the Buckeyes will do the most damage. Miller's aforementioned athleticism will cause the team problems, but I'm not sure how many more than Scheelhaase and Martinez. Again, were this earlier in the season, I'd be worried about the edge discipline of Jake Ryan and Craig Roh, but in the last few weeks, Michigan has largely ironed those out. Per usual, Michigan will try to play contain on Miller and force a handoff to whatever running back is on the field.

That RB is likely to be senior Dan "Boom" Herron, he of TatGate fame. Herron has played in only five games to date but has accumulated 556 yards (5.2 YPC) and 2 TDs. He's a rumbling back (5'10", 205 lbs) that plays like a poor man's Beanie Wells. He's got some speed, but he makes most of his yards carrying the pile and running over defenders.

The Buckeye running game has really excelled because of their offensive line and fullback Zach Boren (yes, that Boren). The interior of the line is fierce, led by senior center Michael Brewster and the return of Mike Adams at tackle gives Ohio State possibly the best offensive line in the Big Ten. Were Michigan's defensive line not currently Swiss cheesing teams (see above), this would be a bigger worry. The real concern will be Michigan's linebackers filling the proper holes and reacting on time. I can already envision a few 20-yard runs after Desmond Morgan gets flattened by Boren, but if Demens and Co. can hold up against an aggressive, downhill running game, the Buckeye offense will be nonexistent.

Prediction
It's really hard to see Ohio State moving the ball at all. They haven't been able to all season and with Michigan's defense playing its best two games of the season in the previous two weeks, I can't see that trend changing. Miller is a dynamic athlete and he'll be a terror to defend against in the next few years, but he's not there this season. The Buckeye passing game is barely functional and Michigan's secondary is good enough to shut it down. With Ohio State forced to exclusively run the ball, Ryan, Roh, and Kovacs will be left to clean up the option runs. This will not be too much of a problem.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan's run game is going to be extremely variable. Runs will likely go for either zero yards or 10 yards. Given how poor the Buckeye linebackers are, if Toussaint and Denard can make it past the defensive line, they won't see anyone until they run into the safeties downfield. Depending on the weather, the passing game may be a non-factor. Regardless, expect a run/pass split like we've seen the last few games.

Ohio State 13 - Michigan 23