A forgotten classic

#24 Northwestern 31 - Michigan 38 (OT)

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Saturday's game will never go down as a classic. My freshman year of college, we had Braylon-fest, an improbable comeback against Michigan State. A few years later, Tate Forcier saw cover-zero and scampered 40 yards into the endzone before finding Greg Matthews on a circle route with 11 seconds left. The next two years, Denard Robinson broke Irish hearts in gif-able fashion. But these games are legendary as much because of the helmets that didn't have wings on them as the outcomes themselves.

The ending of Saturday's game was more improbable than any of those prior classics, but it will probably go forgotten. Beating Northwestern should be a certainty, not a cardiac event. Michigan's chances of playing for a Big Ten title this year are probably dead following yet another fortuitous (and incorrect) officiating call that went Nebraska's way. And this wasn't even a miraculous Denard Robinson performance during his senior season. This was a game that was uncomfortably close and probably ultimately meaningless.

Perhaps if I had been in the stadium, my impressions would change. By the time Michigan got the ball back with 18 seconds left, I was resigned to the team's fate: best case scenario was a long bomb followed by a coinflip field goal to tie the game because, let's be honest, Junior Hemingway ain't walking through that tunnel. But then a miraculous apparition appeared. Number 21 had the ball pinned to his shoulder, setting up the most vicious spiked ball in Michigan history. When overtime started, there was just a sense that Michigan would pull the game out. They had too much momentum, but more concretely, in overtime, always side with the team that has the 6'4" robobeast quarterback.

After Michigan scored in overtime and put the pressure on the Wildcat offense, the ensuing possession went about as well as you can hope for against an option team: 7 yard gain, 2 yard gain, 1 yard loss, 0 yard gain; game. Though Northwestern had been gashing the Wolverine defense on the speed option all day, they opted instead for a veer option. Jibreel Black beat a block, forced a cutback, and Kenny Demens treated Tyris Jones like an excited puppy jumping into its owner's arms after a month-long vacation.

This game was another good audition for Devin Gardner, but it highlighted something that appeared the week before. It seems like Al Borges treats Gardner differently, and not just in playcalling. Gardner gets to the line of scrimmage, surveys the field and calls audibles, and uses a hard count to draw the defense offsides. I refuse to believe that Michigan's three-year starter, senior quarterback can't make the same checks or keep the defense on its toes--it's possible, but seems unlikely--so the question becomes, why does Borges treat the two quarterbacks so differently?

Playing almost exclusively under center helps with a lot of these issues. Hard counts can be used under center more easily, but making checks at the line of scrimmage is something that we've seen Gardner do a few times in the last few weeks that Denard hasn't done once in two years. The other advantage of playing Gardner under center so frequently is getting the play in and lining up faster. With Denard in the game, Borges changes formations from I-formation sets featuring two tight ends and a fullback to shotgun looks with three and four wide receivers. That much rotation of personnel has resulted in a lot of wasted first-quarter timeouts when Denard is in the game. With Gardner playing, the offense just seems more complete, a function of Borges more than the anything the quarterbacks are doing.

Regardless of why the difference exists, it's a very real aspect of this offense now. The offense looks better under Gardner, which unfortunately just highlights how improperly Borges has been using Denard the last two years, but there's no need in fretting over that now. Next year looks a lot more encouraging after the last two weeks and Michigan is still technically in the running for the Big Ten Title this year. Go Minnesota. Go Iowa. Ugh.

Bullets

• Michigan struggled on defense in this game for a number of different reasons. Jake Ryan and Frank Clark both lost contain frequently which gave Northwestern big gains on the ground. In addition, and I think Mattison figured this out before the fourth quarter, but Michigan was defending the speed option in an unsound manner. The playside linebacker was always playing the quarterback, forcing a pitch to the running back who had nothing but blockers in front of him. I think Mattison assumed his corners and safeties could get off of their blocks on the outside the help contain the rushing attack, but Michigan's corners aren't very good at doing this. By the fourth quarter, Michigan started forcing the runs back inside.
• Michigan's third-down defensive struggles where a different matter. Mattison couldn't use his okie blitzes because Northwestern spreads the field too far. Instead, he drew up a strong safety blitz that was largely ineffective. I'll draw these up later this week, but Mattison finally figured out what the problem was: he kept bringing Jordan Kovacs on a safety blitz from Colter's frontside, allowing him to recognize the blitz and scramble around. The one time the blitz actually landed, it was because Mattison flipped the field and brought the blitz from Colter's blindside.
• Kain Colter is slippery. Michigan had him in the backfield a few different times but was unable to bring him down. Will Campbell pushed beyond the line of scrimmage only to see Colter scamper around and one of Michigan's defensive ends dip inside, giving up the edge and a huge rushing lane. This was the least disciplined defensive performance from Michigan we've seen all year, helped along by perhaps the best running quarterback Michigan has played.
• The interior of Michigan's offensive line is broken. At this point, you don't burn redshirts, but Michigan's offensive line may be the weakest unit on the entire team. This is also why Fitz Toussaint is broken. He won't break 100 yards per game once this season.
• I'll have to rewatch the game, but the linebacker rotation confused me. Michigan gave a lot of time to James Ross and Joe Bolden. Then again, Ondre Pipkins saw significant snaps again (and was much improved), so it may be that the defensive staff is willing to rolling the dice during the game more frequently in order to get these younger players some meaningful snaps.
• This was far and away Roy Roundtree's best game as a Wolverine in the last two years, and not just because of his miraculous, game-saving catch. He was getting separation, making shoestring catches, and showed a bit of open-field shiftiness.
• Michigan's secondary is very not good. I really worry about next week's matchup. Despite the fact that Iowa is terrible, they may have a decent pocket passer. Thomas Gordon has looked a stepped behind whoever he's defending for the last few weeks and JT Floyd didn't do much to alleviate fears that he's still too slow to keep up with Big Ten receivers. 
• Devin Funchess is tall, and thank god.

Next Week

Michigan takes on Iowa in a game that will be closer than it should be. Were it not for three Purdue turnovers, Iowa would have been summarily beaten. Purdue managed 490 yards, 8.0 YPA through the air, and 4.8 YPC on the ground. In contrast, Iowa had only 264 total yards, 5.3 YPA, and 2.4 YPC, and yet they only lost by 3 points. Michigan should win, but this game will expose the Wolverine secondary in a way that we haven't seen this season.

A quarterback by any other name...

Michigan 35 - Minnesota 13

Photos by Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

One week is a lot of time to prepare for something. I'm not frustrated or angry that Devin Gardner didn't play against Nebraska when Denard Robinson went down because for most of the season, Gardner has been primarily seeing snaps at receiver and the work he does put in at quarterback was probably just to make sure his throwing form didn't revert to his shot put motion from high school. Gardner's remarkable output on Saturday also carries one major caveat: Minnesota. Don't forget that last year, Minnesota was in contention for being the worst Big Ten football team in the history of the conference or that Michigan beat them 58-0. Whatever you think of Russell Bellomy, Michigan could have won this game with him under center.

However, Gardner showed something that he's been unable to produce during his time at Michigan: consistency. The first three drives of the game, spanning the entire first quarter, were vintage Gardner: 1/3 for 7 yards, 1 INT, and a sack for six yards. In the second quarter, though, Gardner settled down and found his rhythm, even throwing one of those scrambling, wide-open touchdown passes that Ohio State has gotten against Michigan since the dawn of time.

What was most impressive was the way in which Gardner looked suited for this offense. His passing motion was still janky, but he stood in the pocket and delivered passes more confidently and impressively than Denard has in two years. His ability to step into throws and deliver a pass, even in the face of pressure, showed marked improvement over what Michigan has gotten from Denard or what Gardner has shown to date.

Gardner looked like a Jim Tressel-led Terrelle Pryor: an athletic, tall quarterback being forced to play under center and make plays only when he's asked to while allowing the defense to carry the load. In this game, Gardner was able to do so, but this was against a Minnesota team that allowed 44 points to New Hampshire and 28 to Western Michigan and Purdue. Does Gardner's obvious improvement actually resemble a sustainable winning offense? That's debatable.

Al Borges should also come in for some praise, though Saturday's game does not bode well for the future of Denard in the shotgun. Forced to play a bit more conservatively, Borges put Gardner under center for much of the game, a move that actually seemed to work. Instead of running the throwback screen and one predictable running back iso from the I-formation, Borges opened up the offense and forced the Gopher defense to start reacting to play action and counter plays from under center. This looked like a more fully formed offense albeit one that Michigan fans didn't want to see until Shane Morris has taken over the reins.

Regarding the rest of this season, Gardner's performance on Saturday probably signifies a permanent move away from wide receiver. With a lingering injury to Denard--one that can seemingly knock him out of the game at any time--Gardner sitting in the wings will be important if Michigan wants to win close games like the one in Nebraska. The coaches hedged their bets at the beginning of the year. A senior Denard will be able to properly protect himself but he needs more dangerous wide receivers. Gardner proved not to be a great receiver and Denard suffered a fluke injury. Michigan still lost the game's you would expect them to lose (Alabama, Notre Dame) and one that may have gone the other with a better backup QB, and they didn't upset anyone because of Gardner's presence, but the move of Gardner to wide receiver was one we all thought should happen and looked promising enough that the coaches really shouldn't bear too much blame.

There's no quarterback controversy this year, though there will be one to start 2013. Expect a few more formations for Gardner as the season rolls on like the ones Borges installed last year. Until Denard is off campus, though, this is still his team.

Bullets

• Saturday was a weird day. Despite Michigan winning with a guy who hadn't played quarterback all season, it felt like a day full of losses. Notre Dame won because Pitt choked the game away and Michigan State lost because Mark Dantonio wanted 19 yards of field position instead of a chance to ice the game with a 4th and 2 from the Nebraska 39 (!!!). I want Notre Dame to lose because fuck Notre Dame, but Michigan State losing has a real impact on Michigan's chances to win the Big Ten. Mark Dantonio: you're stupid.
• Fitz Toussaint: still probably broken. If he can't get anything going against Minnesota, he probably won't get anything going all year. Excise his late-game 41-yard touchdown scamper (which was impressive, but again, against Minnesota) and Fitz had 29 yards on 12 carries. 
• If Denard had been playing quarterback in this game, the story this week would be about how well the wide receivers played. Those guys pulled in absolutely everything. Gardner sailed a few passes but not so high that the receivers couldn't pull them down.
• Jake Ryan: 5 tackles, 4 assists, 3 TFLs. I be like dang.
• Ryan may be Michigan's most impressive defensive player, but Quinton Washington is the most important. He is on his way to getting drafted in the late rounds next year if he keeps playing this well. You can tell immediately when Washington is off the field, and it seems like whenever he's inserted into the lineup again, he slashes into the backfield and causes havoc.
• Ondre Pipkins is still not ready for significant snaps, though it's good that the coaching staff is getting him on the field. He constantly gets pushed past the point of attack and out of plays. He has talent, but I am a little worried about him being a starter next year.
• If Michigan ever plays a team with an elite passing QB, they are in trouble. JT Floyd has been beaten badly the last few weeks only to watch passes sail out of bounds by a few yards. There are some cracks in the armor of Michigan's secondary that I fear a bowl opponent will attack.

Next Week
Michigan gets Northwestern at home. The Wildcats are coming off of a bye week but previously beat Iowa in a game that probably should have been more lopsided than the final score shows. Michigan has played a few option teams now and has managed to more or less hold their offenses in check. Northwestern is probably more varied than Nebraska, but their offense isn't as prolific. This should be a too-close-for-comfort win, but a win nonetheless, regardless of who's playing quarterback.

What to expect: Defensive Line 2012

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Offensive Line and Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle Projected Starters: Quinton Washington, Will Campbell
Perhaps the biggest question this offseason--certainly the question most frequently asked--was about the progress of former 5-star recruit Will Campbell. As the highlight of the 2009 recruiting class, Campbell drew effusive praise from just about everywhere. MGoBlog said thusly:

General Excitement Level: Very high. Ratings + offers = very high likelihood to be a multi-year starter and NFL draft pick.
Projection: Immediately into the defensive tackle rotation, probably behind Sagesse to start. Potentially works his way into a starting job by the end of the year; sophomore through senior year he should be somewhere between Watson and what Watson could have been if he was mean.

Unfortunately, things haven't exactly followed the script. Working under a bunch of incompetent defensive staffs for his first two years on campus, Campbell struggled with his technique, weight, and work ethic and rarely if ever saw the field. In his first three years, he has accounted for only 8 tackles, 11 assists, 3.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 4 pass break ups (appearing in 17 games). For comparison's sake, in just his senior season, Mike Martin accounted for 20 tackles, 44 assists, 6 TFLs, and 3.5 sacks.

After jettisoning three starters from the 2011 defensive line including standout nose tackle Martin, Campbell enters his senior season as the guy on the defensive line. The good news is that Michigan doesn't need Campbell to be Mike Martin to have a great defensive line. The bad news is we don't really know what we can expect from Campbell on a down-to-down basis.

What this team needs from Campbell is an every-down nose tackle/3-tech DT that can hold up against the run and generate nominal pressure against the pass. Having a penetrating DT the likes of Martin is a luxury, not a necessity for great defenses. The pass rush from the defensive line should be generated primarily by the defensive ends (about which more later), not the inside. If Campbell can stay gap sound and hold his ground against double teams on the run, Michigan's experienced linebackers should be able to make the proper reads and tackle.

Of course, Campbell won't be alone up front. Flanking him, presumably at the nose tackle position if recent camp reports are to be believed, will be Quinton Washington, the 2009 offensive guard recruit who has seen effectively zero time in his career. Washington is a redshirt junior who has spent more time blocking on extra points than tackling people smaller than him. Defensively, he's amassed a whopping 1 tackle and 2 assists.

Because he's going to be a starter, the coaches have been pumping him up throughout camp, praising his abilities. At 6'4", 300 lbs, he won't be much of a slasher, but he may be able to hold his ground much like Campbell. As a position switch, leverage and technique remain a concern, but if he can stay sound in the middle, Michigan should remain stout against the run and rely on blitzes and the defensive ends for pass rush.

The Backups: Ondre Pipkins, Richard Ash, Matt Godin, Willie Henry, Chris Rock

Backing up the defensive tackle starters are a bunch of true freshmen and unproven recruits. The first two off the bench will likely be true freshman dwarf planets Ondre Pipkins and Richard Ash. Pipkins has the recruiting profile of an early contributor but at 6'3", 340 lbs, conditioning and weight are a huge concern. Pipkins likely won't see much time early in the year, but as the season rolls on and he spends more time in the strength and conditioning program, we may see him slim down and start to get snaps.

The other likely backup is Richard Ash, a former Florida commit whose offer was rescinded after he showed at a UF camp wildly overweight. Rich Rodriguez snapped him up shortly after that, and Ash has spent his Michigan career--wait for it--sitting on the bench and out of shape. Coming in as a redshirt sophomore, Ash has lost a considerable amount of weight and should probably see plenty of time on the field this year subbing in for Campbell or Washington, whoever is more in need of a breather.

Behind those, it gets even more tenuous with true freshmen Matt Godin and Willie Henry, both middling recruits lacking the size needed to be competitive. Barring injuries, at least one of these two will redshirt--likely the rail-thin Godin. Michigan also returns redshirt freshman Chris Rock who comes in way underweight at 6'5", 267 lbs. The point is, pray for health and competency from the starting defensive tackles because behind them is basically a straw house.

Defensive End Projected Starters: Jibreel Black, Craig Roh

After a breakout freshman year, starting strongside defensive end Gavin Rossdale Craig Roh has had a relatively disappointing career. With 7.5 TFLs and 2 sacks in his rookie campaign, Roh's numbers dipped in his sophomore year (5.5 TFLs, 0.5 sacks; playing primarily as a linebacker [!!!]) and rebounded slightly in his third season (8 TFL, 4 sacks), albeit not living up to the hype created by his freshman year. When this year is over, looking at Roh's stat line will likely be a good indicator of how successful the Wolverine defense was.

With Martin and Ryan Van Bergen gone to the NFL, production from the defensive line is going to rest solely on Roh and weakside defensive end Jibreel Black. As a consensus four-star recruit and with three years of starting experience under his belt, Roh is the unequivocal leader of the defensive line, and the box score needs to show as much. Since Michigan runs a 4-3 under, the defensive line is naturally shaded toward the weakside of the line, forcing Roh into double teams against tackles and tight ends, but he has the strength and speed to still generate some pass rush. Against the run, he'll need to maintain the edge and not get pushed off the line against those double teams. At 6'5", 281 lbs, he probably has the size to do that.

On the weakside will likely be Jibreel Black, a poor man's Brandon Graham, right down to his jersey. Black has shown flashes of greatness in his first two years but has never really made much of an impact in the box score. Charting only 1.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks in his career, Black will need to start lighting up the backfield the way Graham used to. Fortunately, he'll have every opportunity to. While Roh will be busy sucking up double teams on the strongside of the field, Black will be getting one-on-one matchups against tackles. While not the best speed rusher, Black should be able to combine his speed and strength (6'2", 279 lbs) to get around or through opposing offensive tackles.

For Michigan's defense to maintain its level of play from last year, Roh and Black will need to combine for somewhere around 20-25 TFLs and 15 sacks. Fortunately, they'll have opportunities to do this. Both Greg Mattison's schemes (able to free up just about anyone on the defensive line) and Michigan's experienced secondary (which should increase the amount of coverage sacks we've seen from the defensive line in recent years) should enable the defensive ends to light up the score board.

The Backups: Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Mario Ojemudia, Nathan Brink, Keith Heitsman, Tom Strobel, Chris Wormley :(

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

First off the bench to relieve Roh will be former walk-on Nathan Brink who saw some snaps last year. Brink has come in for a ton of praise from the coaching staff during camp but will be a noticeable downgrade from Roh. Brink won't bring the penetrating athleticism that Roh offers, but if he's able to hold up against the run (and the double teams that come along with them), Michigan's secondary should be able to survive without much pass rush. Behind Brink is redshirt freshman Keith Heitzman as well as true freshman Tom Strobel. Chris Wormley, a highly touted recruiting, suffered a knee injury that will keep me out for the entire season.

While the strongside defensive end depth is a little harrowing, weakside has come in for a fair amount of praise during camp and has the recruiting profile to match. Brennen Beyer and Frank Clark each saw time last season, with Clark producing one of the biggest plays of the Sugar Bowl, intercepting Logan Thomas on a pass rush to set up Michigan's second touchdown. But the first guy off the bench (at least according to most camp reports) will be true freshman Mario Ojemudia. At 6'3", 231 lbs, Ojemudia is probably too small to get serious playing time, but everyone has been raving about his motor and skills during practice. If he can bulk up during the season, chances are he becomes the primary WDE backup at the end of the season.

Don't expect too much from the defensive end backups. Getting to the quarterback will probably be tough with this personnel, so with the backups in, I'd expect more blitzes from Mattison in an effort to generate some pressure. If these guys can simply hold up against the run and maintain outside leverage, once again, we can expect the linebackers to clean up. Injuries to any position on the defensive line is spooky for this team's prospects, but at this point, there are at least highly touted recruits backing up the more experienced starters.