Defending the speed option

Michigan got gashed on the ground a lot against Northwestern, but the one play that did consistent damage was the speed option. At the snap, Kain Colter and Venric Mark would both run to one side of the field and read (usually) the playside defensive end to determine whether or not to pitch the ball to the outside. Michigan spent a lot of the game forcing the pitch with no one outside to make the tackle, but that wasn't the only issue.

Northwestern is in a three-wide set with a tight end on the opposite side of the field and Venric Mark in the backfield. Michigan is in its nickel package. But before the ball is even snapped, you can see a huge problem: Michigan is badly outnumbered to the boundary side of the field. From the offensive center toward the boundary, Michigan has only four defenders. Nebraska has four men on the line of scrimmage, Colter, and Mark. There's absolutely no way Michigan can defend this play toward the sideline.

As the ball is snapped, Northwestern's center and right guard double Black, while the right tackle and tight end release to the second level to block Kovacs and Desmond Morgan. Brennan Beyer is left unblocked and is the player Colter is reading.

Beyer stays to the inside and forces a pitch outside to Mark. This is bad. The right guard is cut blocking Morgan and the tight end is headed straight for Kovacs.

Beyer is now in pursuit of Mark but has no chance. Morgan is Superman-ing over the right tackle. Kovacs is engaged with the tight end. The only player with any chance of making this tackle is JT Floyd and he's seven yards from the line of scrimmage and has to make up ground horizontally to get to where Mark is.

Kovacs keeps Mark to the inside of the field, but it doesn't really matter. There isn't anyone there to tackle him. Mark is now two yards past the line of scrimmage with a head of steam and Floyd is still five yards away. best case scenario, this is a six-yard gain.

But it's not because Floyd overruns the play.

Mark will scamper ahead for 30 yards.

Video

The Takeaway
The obvious problem here is the way that Michigan is aligned, but that's a function of playing a spread team. They're in man coverage against the receivers with a safety over the top who also defends against a bubble screen (4 players) and have four down linemen (8 players), leaving only three players to defend against this option look. This is one of the inherent dangers of playing option teams like this, but because Michigan is so outnumbered, it becomes even more important for Beyer (or whoever is left unblocked). Forcing Colter to keep pushes him back toward the strength of the defense and toward a spot on the field where Floyd can more easily come downhill and make a tackle. If Colter slows down at all, he'll be tackled by the pursuit defenders (who eventually tackle Mark 30 yards downfield). Michigan defended the pitch this way for a large part of the first three quarters before making the shift in the fourth. Option teams present these problems and its up to Mattison to have a better gameplan to defend basic parts of the opposing offense.

Linebacker/nickelback blitz vs. Air Force

Staples of this blog last year were posts that lauded Greg Mattison's awesome NFL-style zone blitzes. Michigan didn't really use them all that often against Alabama and rarely had an opportunity to against Air Force because of the offense they run. But fortunately, on second viewing of the game, one blitz late in the first half stood out as another piece of Mattison mastery.

(If you're new to the site this year, above is a diagram of the blitz. Michigan's players are all denoted by their numbers. The lines with arrows at the end indicate a blitz. The lines with squares at the end indicate a zone drop. The light-yellow squares indicated the approximate defensive zones.)

With six minutes left in the first half, Michigan gets Air Force in a 3rd and 8 passing down. The team lines up in its Super Nickel package: Craig Roh (#88) and Jibreel Black (#55) at defensive tackle, Frank Clark (#57) and Cam Gordon (!!!; #4) at defensive end, two linebackers, three corners, and two safeties. Almost any time Gordon lines up with his hand in the ground as a defensive end, I get angry, but this is the first time Mattison has actually done something innovative with it.

As the ball is snapped, all four defensive linemen begin to rush. In a moment, Gordon (bottom of the screen) will drop out into coverage. Courtney Avery (playing nickelback) and Joe Bolden (strongside linebacker) are also blitzing. What this will do is overload the strongside of the offensive line with pass rushers.

Below, you can see Gordon dropping into coverage. Roh and Black both slanted toward the weakside of the field, forcing their offensive line couterparts to follow them that way. This leave the Air Force left guard to block both Bolden and Avery (highlighted).

The left guard decides to block Avery (highlighted), giving Joe Bolden a free lane to the Air Force quarterback.

Black and Roh also beat their blocks, so there are now three Michigan blitzers in the face of the Falcon QB.

Before getting the sack, QB Connor Dietz throws the ball off his back foot (hey, I've seen that before) out of bounds.

Video

The Takeaway

This is what you pay defensive coordinators for. Much like some of Michigan's blitzes last year, the defense overloads one side of the offensive line in order to get a free rusher on the quarterback. Often, Mattison is able to do that with only four rushers. Here, he uses five because, well, he wants to.

You may have noticed that Jordan Kovacs is all alone in the deep middle of the field with only zone coverage underneath. This play is designed so that the need for Kovacs to make a play is the worst-case scenario. The blitz is intended to force opposing quarterbacks to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible, hence the five underneath zones.

The good thing about this particular blitz is the personnel and zone assignments. A few times last year, Mattison's zone blitzes failed because linebackers or defensive linemen were asked to make unrealistic zone drops into coverage and failed to get into position on time. Here, the only "defensive lineman" dropping into coverage is a wide receiver free safety strongside linebacker. The rest of the zone coverage comes from linebackers, corners, and safeties who are already positioned near their coverage zones. Most importantly, the blitz did exactly what it was supposed to do, forcing an incompletion and getting the defense off the field.

What to expect: The Team x3 2012

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Offensive Line and Tight Ends, Defensive Line, Linebackers, Secondary

The Schedule
The worst thing Brady Hoke did last year (there weren't many things) was go 11-2 with some help from smoke and mirrors. Commanding losses to MSU and Iowa speak for themselves, but Michigan survived by the teeth of their skin against a crappy Notre Dame team, a crappy Ohio State team, and inexplicably beat Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. This could just as easily have been an 8-5 unit last year. We were not. For that, we rejoice.

Unfortunately, Team 133 enters the 2012 season with lofty expectations--ranked 8th in the country--and with one of the more difficult schedules to boot. Michigan is on the road against Alabama, Notre Dame, Purdue, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Ohio State. The only home matchup Michigan has against a top-level opponent is a rebuilding Michigan State team that frankly, the Wolverines would beat in East Lansing.

The point is, the schedule does not set up well for a team rebuilding its offensive and defensive lines and with shaky depth at just about every position ont he field. Though bye weeks aren't quite as beneficial the following Saturday as you would expect, to add to scheduling frustration, Michigan takes the week off before the Purdue game. Purdue.

But because predicting the season before it even starts is totally reasonable, here's a relatively positive spin (saywhatnow?) on this year's schedule:

Opponent	Outcome
Alabama	L
Air Force	W
UMass	W
@ ND	L
BYE
@ Purdue	W
Illinois	W
MSU	W
@ Nebraska	W
@ Minnesota	W
Northwestern	W
Iowa	W
@ Ohio	L

Before I started writing this, I was convinced this team would top out at 8-4, but I'm in a good mood, so 9-3 seems attainable. Alabama is a certain loss. Notre Dame is probably a toss up, depending on whether or not Brian Kelly can pick a decent starter from his gaggle of mediocre QBs. And Ohio State is, well, probably a loss. While Urban Meyer will turn his current roster into something special eventually, Braxton Miller is still the kid that led the team to a 6-7 record last year and probably still can't complete a pass. But it's in Columbus so, loss.

The rest of the games seem like lock wins (Air Force, UMass, @Minnesota, Northwestern) or at worse 60-40 Michigan wins (@Purdue, Illinois, MSU, @Nebraska, Iowa). Now, this is college football and an injury to Denard means 9-3 instantly becomes 6-6. But we're functioning under the impression that God wouldn't do that to us. Right God? Right?

Do I really feel like Michigan will end the season at 9-3? Probably not. The chances of the team upsetting Alabama, Notre Dame, or Ohio State--all on the road--are pretty slim. But the chances of at least one of Iowa, MSU, or Nebraska beating the team are relatively high; they're all more or less on the same talent level.

How will we get there, though? [Read after the jump for offense and defense in total]

What to expect: Defensive Line 2012

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Offensive Line and Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle Projected Starters: Quinton Washington, Will Campbell
Perhaps the biggest question this offseason--certainly the question most frequently asked--was about the progress of former 5-star recruit Will Campbell. As the highlight of the 2009 recruiting class, Campbell drew effusive praise from just about everywhere. MGoBlog said thusly:

General Excitement Level: Very high. Ratings + offers = very high likelihood to be a multi-year starter and NFL draft pick.
Projection: Immediately into the defensive tackle rotation, probably behind Sagesse to start. Potentially works his way into a starting job by the end of the year; sophomore through senior year he should be somewhere between Watson and what Watson could have been if he was mean.

Unfortunately, things haven't exactly followed the script. Working under a bunch of incompetent defensive staffs for his first two years on campus, Campbell struggled with his technique, weight, and work ethic and rarely if ever saw the field. In his first three years, he has accounted for only 8 tackles, 11 assists, 3.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 4 pass break ups (appearing in 17 games). For comparison's sake, in just his senior season, Mike Martin accounted for 20 tackles, 44 assists, 6 TFLs, and 3.5 sacks.

After jettisoning three starters from the 2011 defensive line including standout nose tackle Martin, Campbell enters his senior season as the guy on the defensive line. The good news is that Michigan doesn't need Campbell to be Mike Martin to have a great defensive line. The bad news is we don't really know what we can expect from Campbell on a down-to-down basis.

What this team needs from Campbell is an every-down nose tackle/3-tech DT that can hold up against the run and generate nominal pressure against the pass. Having a penetrating DT the likes of Martin is a luxury, not a necessity for great defenses. The pass rush from the defensive line should be generated primarily by the defensive ends (about which more later), not the inside. If Campbell can stay gap sound and hold his ground against double teams on the run, Michigan's experienced linebackers should be able to make the proper reads and tackle.

Of course, Campbell won't be alone up front. Flanking him, presumably at the nose tackle position if recent camp reports are to be believed, will be Quinton Washington, the 2009 offensive guard recruit who has seen effectively zero time in his career. Washington is a redshirt junior who has spent more time blocking on extra points than tackling people smaller than him. Defensively, he's amassed a whopping 1 tackle and 2 assists.

Because he's going to be a starter, the coaches have been pumping him up throughout camp, praising his abilities. At 6'4", 300 lbs, he won't be much of a slasher, but he may be able to hold his ground much like Campbell. As a position switch, leverage and technique remain a concern, but if he can stay sound in the middle, Michigan should remain stout against the run and rely on blitzes and the defensive ends for pass rush.

The Backups: Ondre Pipkins, Richard Ash, Matt Godin, Willie Henry, Chris Rock

Backing up the defensive tackle starters are a bunch of true freshmen and unproven recruits. The first two off the bench will likely be true freshman dwarf planets Ondre Pipkins and Richard Ash. Pipkins has the recruiting profile of an early contributor but at 6'3", 340 lbs, conditioning and weight are a huge concern. Pipkins likely won't see much time early in the year, but as the season rolls on and he spends more time in the strength and conditioning program, we may see him slim down and start to get snaps.

The other likely backup is Richard Ash, a former Florida commit whose offer was rescinded after he showed at a UF camp wildly overweight. Rich Rodriguez snapped him up shortly after that, and Ash has spent his Michigan career--wait for it--sitting on the bench and out of shape. Coming in as a redshirt sophomore, Ash has lost a considerable amount of weight and should probably see plenty of time on the field this year subbing in for Campbell or Washington, whoever is more in need of a breather.

Behind those, it gets even more tenuous with true freshmen Matt Godin and Willie Henry, both middling recruits lacking the size needed to be competitive. Barring injuries, at least one of these two will redshirt--likely the rail-thin Godin. Michigan also returns redshirt freshman Chris Rock who comes in way underweight at 6'5", 267 lbs. The point is, pray for health and competency from the starting defensive tackles because behind them is basically a straw house.

Defensive End Projected Starters: Jibreel Black, Craig Roh

After a breakout freshman year, starting strongside defensive end Gavin Rossdale Craig Roh has had a relatively disappointing career. With 7.5 TFLs and 2 sacks in his rookie campaign, Roh's numbers dipped in his sophomore year (5.5 TFLs, 0.5 sacks; playing primarily as a linebacker [!!!]) and rebounded slightly in his third season (8 TFL, 4 sacks), albeit not living up to the hype created by his freshman year. When this year is over, looking at Roh's stat line will likely be a good indicator of how successful the Wolverine defense was.

With Martin and Ryan Van Bergen gone to the NFL, production from the defensive line is going to rest solely on Roh and weakside defensive end Jibreel Black. As a consensus four-star recruit and with three years of starting experience under his belt, Roh is the unequivocal leader of the defensive line, and the box score needs to show as much. Since Michigan runs a 4-3 under, the defensive line is naturally shaded toward the weakside of the line, forcing Roh into double teams against tackles and tight ends, but he has the strength and speed to still generate some pass rush. Against the run, he'll need to maintain the edge and not get pushed off the line against those double teams. At 6'5", 281 lbs, he probably has the size to do that.

On the weakside will likely be Jibreel Black, a poor man's Brandon Graham, right down to his jersey. Black has shown flashes of greatness in his first two years but has never really made much of an impact in the box score. Charting only 1.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks in his career, Black will need to start lighting up the backfield the way Graham used to. Fortunately, he'll have every opportunity to. While Roh will be busy sucking up double teams on the strongside of the field, Black will be getting one-on-one matchups against tackles. While not the best speed rusher, Black should be able to combine his speed and strength (6'2", 279 lbs) to get around or through opposing offensive tackles.

For Michigan's defense to maintain its level of play from last year, Roh and Black will need to combine for somewhere around 20-25 TFLs and 15 sacks. Fortunately, they'll have opportunities to do this. Both Greg Mattison's schemes (able to free up just about anyone on the defensive line) and Michigan's experienced secondary (which should increase the amount of coverage sacks we've seen from the defensive line in recent years) should enable the defensive ends to light up the score board.

The Backups: Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Mario Ojemudia, Nathan Brink, Keith Heitsman, Tom Strobel, Chris Wormley :(

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

First off the bench to relieve Roh will be former walk-on Nathan Brink who saw some snaps last year. Brink has come in for a ton of praise from the coaching staff during camp but will be a noticeable downgrade from Roh. Brink won't bring the penetrating athleticism that Roh offers, but if he's able to hold up against the run (and the double teams that come along with them), Michigan's secondary should be able to survive without much pass rush. Behind Brink is redshirt freshman Keith Heitzman as well as true freshman Tom Strobel. Chris Wormley, a highly touted recruiting, suffered a knee injury that will keep me out for the entire season.

While the strongside defensive end depth is a little harrowing, weakside has come in for a fair amount of praise during camp and has the recruiting profile to match. Brennen Beyer and Frank Clark each saw time last season, with Clark producing one of the biggest plays of the Sugar Bowl, intercepting Logan Thomas on a pass rush to set up Michigan's second touchdown. But the first guy off the bench (at least according to most camp reports) will be true freshman Mario Ojemudia. At 6'3", 231 lbs, Ojemudia is probably too small to get serious playing time, but everyone has been raving about his motor and skills during practice. If he can bulk up during the season, chances are he becomes the primary WDE backup at the end of the season.

Don't expect too much from the defensive end backups. Getting to the quarterback will probably be tough with this personnel, so with the backups in, I'd expect more blitzes from Mattison in an effort to generate some pressure. If these guys can simply hold up against the run and maintain outside leverage, once again, we can expect the linebackers to clean up. Injuries to any position on the defensive line is spooky for this team's prospects, but at this point, there are at least highly touted recruits backing up the more experienced starters. 

All your corn are belong to Rich Rodriguez

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

When Michigan's shellacking of Nebraska came to an end, I expected Brady Hoke to walk to midfield to shake hands with Bo Pelini whereupon Pelini would pull off his cheap rubber mask to reveal that Rich Rodriguez had actually been in charge of the Cornhuskers' otherwise valiant attempts at bumbling, fumbling football. The mess of kickoff fumbles, blocked punts, and otherwise undisciplined sloppy play reeked of the last three years in the Big House. Except this time, it was the opponent (a non-Notre Dame opponent to boot) that was staring at the sidelines after the football that was supposed to be tucked high and tight in their armpits was bouncing gleefully into the arms of defenders.

I like Rich Rodriguez, more than I rightfully should after the last three years. But JT Floyd and Jeremy Gallon are making him look like an idiot. Since Gallon showed up on campus, he was a bad decision waiting to happen: not fielding punts that he should have in addition to a complete inability to catch. In the short months that Hoke has been on campus, Gallon has become a reliable punt returner and relatively sure-handed. And don't even get me started on Floyd who built on his Illinois performance with another game of jumping routes and blanketing receivers.

An honest question: What were Rodriguez and his staff coaching for three years? The only answer I can muster is "schemes". Rodriguez assumed that at this level, players should have the fundamentals down and focused on schemes. Hoke, on the other hand, mocks your lack-of-toughness schemes and teaches Will Campbell how to keep his ass low to the ground. Whatever it is, Michigan's back-to-back defensive smotherings of decent-to-good offenses prove that this isn't a fluke. The defense is under the best management that it has been since Greg Mattison was last leading the same unit to a national championship over a decade ago.

The offense appears just as well off. Denard ran the ball 23 times in this game, his highest total since Michigan's dismantling of Northwestern over a month ago (and his third highest rushing attempt total of the season). Borges gets it. Denard isn't Chad Henne or Shane Morris, but Borges understands personnel; the previous coaching staff understood schemes. So the offense will probably be a little wonky and grab bag until 2013 when Borges has his prototypical quarterback under center (and he will be very much Under Center). Michigan will run Totally Surprising Jet Sweeps that invariably lose five yards. But when Borges isn't outsmarting himself, he's putting together an effective offensive package that keeps defenses on their toes and finds ways to utilize all of Michigan's vast skill players.

At this point, it's fair to say that Rodriguez's recruiting hauls were probably not as deficient as previously thought. A lot of the non-contributors over the last three years, especially on defense, are panning out as effective starters and in some cases, possible All Big Ten performers. But that's not such a great thing for Rodriguez's reputation. The better this team gets--and they will continue to get better--the more you have to ask, What the hell was going on the last three years?

Bullets

• How nice is it that all of the special teams blunders are not being committed by your team? When's the last time Michigan blocked a punt? How enjoyable is it to be relatively certain Gallon is going to catch any punt sent his way but also make a few yards without fumbling?
• Fitz Toussaint looks more and more like an NFL running back the more carries he gets. His lateral movement is incredible. There are only a few running backs in the country with a more effective cut than his. So long as he doesn't fall in love with it and maintains it as a tool to run vertically, Toussaint is going to be the best Michigan running back in a long time.
• Denard, however, had another rough day running. For whatever reason, he's really struggled making decisions in the running game. In the last few games, Denard has shown a tendency to bounce everything to the outside, even when he has a lane up the middle. He may be trying to avoid some hits, but I'd guess he's trying to bust every run long rather than taking the running lanes given to him. The coaches will surely talk to him about this. His new-found ability to scramble is a wonderful addition to the offense, however.
• Jibreel Black is done seeing relevant snaps this year. He refuses to play contain on the quarterback on option plays and was responsible for a significant chunk of Taylor Martinez's rushing yards.
• Michigan ran 80 offensive plays in this game. Nebraska ran 54. Time of possession is a worthless stat, but those numbers are unreal. Michigan's defense booted the Cornhuskers off the field with ease (Nebraska was only 3-13 on third down and I believe they were 0-7 at one point) and the offense maintained long scoring drives.
• Denard's interception was a clone of one that he threw earlier. He struggles mightily throwing those RB screens. Otherwise, he seemed to have a really good day through the air. That touchdown to Odoms was his best throw of the season.

Next week
Ohio.

Preview: Michigan State 2011

#11 Michigan (6-0) vs. #23 Michigan St. (4-1) Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan Kickoff 12 pm EST ESPN Forecast: 50s, 20% chance of rain

Last week
Michigan St.: Bye. MSU is coming off of their bye week, but the previous Saturday, they went against Ohio State in a game that did wonders for the Big Ten's national reputation: a commanding 10-7 win against a team that couldn't field a functional quarterback. A little credit is due to the Spartans defense for holding the Buckeyes to 178 total yards of offense, but that's not saying much. Joe Bauserman (Michigan fans should buy up every Bauserman jersey available; love that dude) played most of the game, throwing the ball in the general vicinity of the football field. Though he didn't throw any interceptions, his 7/14, 87-yard stat line speaks for itself. Ohio State is a black hole.

On the other side of the ball, the underwhelming Ohio State defense was able to hold Kirk Cousins and the Spartan offense in check, though mostly due to two terrible interceptions by Cousins who seemed determined to keep OSU in the game. As it has been all year, the MSU running game was nonexistent, but that's what happens when your offensive line is a hodgepodge of position switch starters and Gumby characters. The highly touted trio of Le'Veon Bell, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper managed just 85 yards on 27 carries (3.15 YPC).

Simply put, the Spartans barely looked like a functional football team playing fighting-for-bowl-eligibility Ohio State. If ever there were a confidence builder for Michigan fans, this game was it.

#12 Michigan 42 - Northwestern 24. Game recap. After being dominated in the first half against Northwestern, mostly due to three interceptions from Denard, the team rallied in the second half and scored 28 straight points to beat the Wildcats. The defense shut out the Dan Persa-led offense in the second half after the Northwestern squad left scorched earth in their wake during the first two quarters. Michigan was the beneficiary of a sketchy interception call that turned the momentum of the game, allowing the offense to take hold of the game.

After Denard's first-half arm punting, he settled down and led the offense to 541 yards on 17/26 through the air. Al Borges continued his tricky playcalling with a play action to the counter draw, as well as a heavy-I formation that earned Michigan an easy touchdown. The defense struggled with Northwestern's triple option, though. Defensive ends, who were assigned to the quarterback, often gave up the edge, and the Wildcats were able to throw bubble screens for significant yardage throughout the game.

Despite a shaky effort on both sides of the ball, Michigan came away with a commanding victory.

Offense vs. MSU
First, let's disabuse the notion that Michigan State has one of the best defenses in the country. MSU's ranking as the 3rd best scoring defense, 3rd rushing defense, and 2nd pass efficiency defense is a tenuous one when you consider the opposition. The Spartans' murderer's row of opponents includes: Ohio State, Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, and their one loss (in which they allowed 31 points) to Notre Dame. If you actually believe that Michigan State's defense is as good as those rankings, then I've got some land to sell you.

That's not to say Michigan State has a bad defense. Defensive tackle Jerel Worthy looks like the best defensive prospect in the Big Ten this year. He routinely blows by offensive linemen and fights off double teams. Elsewhere on the defensive line, former 5-star prospect William Gholston has lived up to the hype. The secondary is also strong, recording seven interceptions in the first five games of the season.

How Al Borges schemes for this defense will be interesting. Like the last few weeks, running up the middle will be hard. Worthy will make inside runs far more difficult than they should be while Gholston and the MSU linebackers should be able to contain a lot of the outside carries. Against Northwestern, we saw Borges use Mike Shaw to get the edge on some carries, and I'd expect that to continue this game. Otherwise, Michigan will have to use some new option schemes or the speed option to get Denard and Co. in space against a traditional 4-3 defense.

The other concern is Worthy's pass rush. If you watch MSU games from this season, one thing you'll notice is how quickly Worthy and the rest of the defensive line get off the ball. In years past, it's been clear that MSU's defensive line was timing Michigan's snap count, and it looks like that kind of preparation has become a staple of the MSU defense. It'll be interesting to see if Borges starts using hard counts to slow down the aggressive pass rush. The other thing that should be effective against this front seven are screens and counters. Expect to see more from Vincent Smith as Borges uses him out of the backfield in an effort to slow the pass rush.

If Michigan's short stuff isn't working or Denard is forced to sit in the pocket and throw, things could get hairy. We've already seen how Denard struggles with pressure (throwing off his back foot and often throwing to the other team), and Worthy is the kind of defensive tackle that will get into the backfield. I'd guess that the deep jump balls will be rare to nonexistent in this game. Besides playing a cover-2 shell thus limiting those deep opportunities, Worthy is the kind of player that will get to the QB given enough time. Borges should have at least one or two new formations and wrinkles to throw at the Spartan defense to keep them guessing.

Defense vs. MSU
Though all of the above might seem foreboding, the good news is MSU's offense is pretty terrible. As inflated as MSU's numbers are against a schedule of patsies, their shoddy offensive production to date looks even worse. Currently, the Spartans are 79th in rushing offense, 34th in passing yards per game, and 62nd in scoring offense. When your second most difficult opponent is a Luke Fickel-led team, you've officially only played cupcakes. And against them, the Spartan offense has been pretty bad.

Much of that has to do with the team's offensive line, which features a defensive tackle position switch (who only switched to offensive line in the spring) and a JUCO as the tackles and a redshirt freshman center. This is a recipe for disaster, and it's been trouble for Cousins. MSU is 24th in sacks allowed, but Cousins is under constant pressure. In addition, the terrible offensive line has completely shut down what was expected to be a prolific rushing attack. With the trio of Caper, Bell, and Baker, Michigan State's running game was supposed to be one of the best in the Big Ten. Instead, they've produced an awful 3.4 YPC this season. There's trouble in East Lansing.

How Michigan's defense stacks up against this attack will be interesting. So far, the defensive line hasn't been as productive as expected, but given the Minnesotaness of MSU's offensive line, a big game is necessary. Specifically, Jibreel Black, Craig Roh, and Jake Ryan (when he has his hand in the ground) need to beat MSU's inexperienced tackles, though I expect Dantonio will use tight ends frequently to help out blocking on the outside. If Cousins has too much time in the pocket, he will pick apart Michigan's secondary, regardless of how much they appear to have improved this season.

Enter Greg Mattison. We've seen what Mattison's schemes can do to inexperienced offensive lines, and given that Cousins isn't a threat to run like Persa was last week, blitzing should resume in full effect this game. The stunts Michigan used earlier this year will hopefully cross up the inexperienced line and give Michigan a few free shots at Cousins. If nothing else, it'll force him to rush throws and get him out of rhythm.

Meanwhile, I don't think MSU has the pieces in place to hurt Michigan on the ground. Though the running back trio can be deadly, the status of the Spartan offensive line is too poor to make any lanes. Mike Martin will be charged with clogging up the middle of the field and taking care of any iso runs while the decisiveness of the indecisive linebackers will be put to test on power runs. It'll be key that Michigan doesn't let the MSU running backs bounce outside on power runs. Keeping everything in the middle of the field should effectively shut down the MSU running game.

Prediction
Before the season, this was a Michigan State lock, but seeing the state of MSU's offense and the improvement from Michigan's defense makes this a lot harder to call. The chances that MSU marches down the field are unlikely. Without a functioning running game, sustained drives will be sparse. The key will be whether or not Michigan can get pressure and whether or not Cousins can pick apart the secondary. (Something to watch: With a pro-style QB, chances are he'll take advantage of Michigan's defensive backs face guarding. Expect multiple back-shoulder throws and a few pass interference calls.) A lot of Michigan's success will hinge on Mattison's playcalling.

On offense, Michigan will be forced to pick their way down the field. MSU's 4-3 cover-2 will all but eliminate Denard's jump balls. Borges is going to have to find ways to exploit a stacked box, necessitating a lot of tunnel screens, throwback screens to Smith, and short hitch routes. This will be Michigan's chance to really utilize the triple option that they showed against Minnesota. Ultimately, they move the ball well against MSU's conservative defense and rediscover the rushing attack that was absent against Northwestern.

Michigan 31 - Michigan State 20

Eastern Michigan 2011: Where Threetidan looms

I can still remember the final pass of Michigan's season opening 2008 defeat to Utah in vivid detail. Despite a putrid all-around performance from the offense, Michigan still had a chance. Down by only two points with a little over two minutes to go, Michigan received the ball with the opportunity to drive for a final touchdown or field goal and seal an unlikely, and mostly undeserved, victory. On fourth and seven, Steven Threet hurled a ball 10 feet over the head of Darryl Stonum and out of bounds. The game was effectively over, but more importantly, I remember the distinct sense of doom that fell over me and everyone else watching the game once the offense limped to the sideline.

On Saturday, Michigan won, and if you only look at the box score, won in convincing fashion, hammering Eastern Michigan to the tune of 31-3. But for anyone who watched the game, things were not so peachy. Michigan gained a total of 32 (!) yards in the first quarter, went three and out three times during the game, and showed an offense that looked as dysfunctional as it did unsustainable. It wasn't until the second half when Al Borges decided to let Denard Robinson loose on QB draws that the offense began to resemble a functional unit.

After a 7/18, 95 yard (5.3 YPA) day against a MAC bottom dweller, it's difficult to see Denard Robinson as a sustainable option at quarterback in Borges' offense. It may sound reactionary, but after another game riddled with poor decisions (chucking the ball into double coverage) and spotty accuracy, and against competition that shouldn't be able to compete with Michigan's athletes, it's clear that Denard's struggles in the passing game last year, his uninspiring spring game, and his poor passing performances against Notre Dame and Western Michigan are no flukes. He locks onto receivers, struggles with his accuracy, and frequently makes near backbreaking decisions.

There is a silver lining though. Had Rich Rodriguez brought back Mike DeBord to coach the 2008 offense, it still would have been terrible. With this team, there are options. When Borges did unleash Denard, he ran wild, as he (and everyone else on the team) should have against a hodgepodge of JUCOs and lower-level MAC players. If Borges is smart, and I think that he is, this game will be a clear indication that in order to move the ball, Denard's legs will have to bear the brunt of the load. Not only could Denard run against Eastern, but his legs once again opened up the QB draw play action that was used to devastating effect last year.

It's not that Denard can't be a great college quarterback. Last year proved that he can. It's that he can't be a great quarterback in a pass-first, I-formation offense. If Borges and Hoke know what's good for them, they'll start tailoring the offense around Denard's legs now to avoid a catastrophic meltdown as the season progresses.

Bullets

• Though I wanted to see the I-formation in this game, after watching Michigan's linemen struggle with blocking and running backs fail to hit the proper holes, consider this my vote to have the I-formation banned from the playbook for the rest of the year. There are just far too many fundamental problems with how the team runs it currently, that it's not something they should be utilizing in games yet.
• Eastern Michigan averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 46 carries which is really bad, but I wouldn't read too much into it. Greg Mattison seemed to play the game in the most vanilla fashion imaginable. There was very little blitzing and the team spent most of the game in a Ron English-like defense. This does, however, go further to explaining why Michigan struggles so mightily to open games without blitzing: they're terrible in zone coverage and struggle stuffing the line of scrimmage without added pressure from the linebackers and safeties.
• I assumed the offense would fruitlessly burn the redshirt of one of their freshman running backs and lo and behold, Thomas Rawls got two carries and looked like a true freshman. This is an utter waste with three to four established running backs higher on the depth chart.
• Devin Gardner desperately needed more than one garbage time possession. With Denard's early-season struggles, there's a good chance he'll be needed (regardless of injury to Denard) later this year. I remain unimpressed by his performances to date and would've liked to see him get more time to develop in the system.
• Craig Roh had a decent game and seemed to outperform Jibreel Black, who is currently fighting for the starting role. Roh had one sack and seemed marginally more effective than Black who was often chasing, and being outrun by, EMU running backs.
• Other insights gleaned from the rest of the game are hit or miss. EMU rarely threw the ball, so the secondary wasn't tested. The defensive line saw a lot of rotation, though we already knew the backups were a noticeable step back. And none of the running backs really impressed.

Next week, Michigan takes on Hoke's old stomping ground San Diego State. Chances are this is when Michigan will start using Denard in running situations more consistently and tailoring the offense around him. If not, this is going to be a long year.

Expectations against EMU: Defense

In lieu of a traditional preview, for what are hopefully obvious reasons, I thought it would be more useful to point out some things to watch for on Saturday as well as a few things to expect/hope for. Previously: the offense

Defense

Will Campbell. The real thing to watch on the defense will be Will Campbell. He had a remarkably productive game against Notre Dame and should be able to repeat that performance against a run-heavy Eastern Michigan team. If Campbell is going to become a contributor for the defense, he'll need to prove that the Notre Dame game wasn't a fluke. He'll also need to become more consistent against the run and double teams. EMU provides a good avenue for him to get reps and work on his technique.

Jibreel Black vs Craig Roh. Roh has entered his third year on campus in a supremely underwhelming fashion, so much so that Black mostly replaced him against Notre Dame. There are rumblings that Roh has/had mono which is slowing his production, but that seems too convenient, especially when Hoke almost explicitly dismisses the suggestion. This is probably the most intriguing position battle on defense. These two should get about equal playing time tomorrow and we'll be able to see which can consistently provide the pressure that Michigan desperately needs from their front four.

How does Marvin Robinson bounce back? Robinson is just learning the free safety position and prone to some ugly coverage errors. It's even questionable whether or not he can be a permanent solution at free safety. MGoBlog says he's probably not, but I'm a proponent of gambling with the best talent. In my opinion, having Robinson on the field and gambling that he'll grow out of these rookie mistakes is far more preferable to trying to put a less athletically talented player on the field who might not make as many mental errors early. Mattison will likely call a lot of those presnap bluffs in this game and see how well Michigan handles the coverage. Robinson's performance will be telling: if he can learn and progress from his errors against Notre Dame, he could very well be Michigan's free safety of the future.

Speaking of Robinson... I want to see Mattison continue to dial up pressure against EMU and show the same presnap formations that we've seen already this year. There's no need in taking it easy against EMU, so coming out with the full defensive playbook--at least the stuff that they've already shown--will be important. Michigan is still badly blowing coverage on what should be some of the base formations of the defense. This is a good opportunity for Hoke and company to really coach up a few of the culprits (Kenny Demens and Marvin Robinson, specifically, who have both had difficulty remembering their assignments).

Stop face guarding. For whatever reason, it seems as though the coaching staff has told Michigan's corners to face guard opposing receivers. In the first two games, I can't remember a single instance of man coverage down the field when Michigan's corners weren't face guarding. Courtney Avery was even called for a bad pass interference call in the endzone because of it. Maybe they're just inexperienced and bad at identifying the ball, but the corners' technique seems far more indicative of a systemic approach from the coaching staff. With a quarterback that struggles throwing the ball, Michigan's corners should be able to finally rectify these struggles, if only for a game. Michigan should have this game firmly in hand, making this good practice for the corners to be more aggressive and work on technique that they may not be completely comfortable with.

Fergodsakes, rest Troy Woolfolk. Injured ankle, hand cast, and a shredded nose is enough. There's no purpose in playing Woolfolk in this game. Michigan can gain nothing by putting its injured starting cornerback on the field against a team that can hardly threaten the secondary. This will also open playing time for the young corners that Michigan will use throughout the year. However, given Woolfolk's desire to play and Hoke's emphasis on toughness, he'll probably be out there for one or two series.

Freeing up Mike Martin

Mike Martin's superior talent and production are not lost on Michigan's coaches, nor is it on opposing offenses. As such, Martin has faced constant double teams to avoid his potential impact. Michigan coaches know that Martin is integral to the defense's success and have deployed a few different methods in the last two weeks to try and get him free. Against Indiana, Greg Robinson moved Martin to the defensive end spot in four-man fronts and put Ryan Van Bergen at the defensive tackle spot. It had middling results. Against MSU, Robinson showed a wonderful blitz/stunt combination that got Martin a free release at Kirk Cousins.

Michigan has their nickel package on the field against a four-wide set for MSU. The Spartans will motion a receiver across the formation who will set up as an H-back on the other side of the field. Michigan is showing a three-man defensive line, and Craig Roh is lined up behind Martin. Before the snap, Roh moves up to the line to show blitz:

Roh is now standing next to Martin on the line of scrimmage. His blitz is intended to consume two offensive linemen (the center and left guard):

Roh is highlighted in red here. You can see him slanting into the offensive guard and center. Jibreel Black is rushing on the outside on the bottom of this picture, leaving a hole between the left guard and left tackle. Mike Martin is beginning a stunt (essentially when he and Roh crisscross on a blitz) that will lead him through the gap that Roh's blitz created.

Now it's Martin highlighted in red. Roh has buried himself in the offensive line and drawn the attention of the left guard and the center. You can see the gap that has been vacated by the left tackle and left guard that Martin is stunting into.

Martin now has a pretty clear lane to Cousins. The right guard has tried to come across the formation and grab Martin from behind but it'll be unsuccessful. The only person standing between Martin and Cousins is Larry Caper who Martin... disposes of:

Martin grabs Caper and throws him into the right guard who was in pursuit. Martin now has a free rush at Cousins who is also feeling the pressure of Black and Ryan Van Bergen off the edges.

Cousins breaks contain and starts rolling to his left, but Michigan has good coverage down the field (and in front of Cousins, preventing a scramble) and is forced to throw the ball away.

This play obviously won't work this well every time, but it's clear that getting Martin free of double teams is a priority for the coaches. I've been down on Greg Robinson in the last two weeks, but plays like this and his move toward more man coverage make me think he's not hopeless. This is a really well designed play. Martin is far and away the most talented player on Michigan's defense, playing a position that typically sees the bare minimum of stat-sheet production. Getting him free rushes like this more often is another way the defense will be able be more effective.

2010 Depth Chart thoughts

You're all probably well aware that an unofficial depth chart for Michigan has been released for the UConn game. You can read the whole thing above at MGoBlog, but I'll break down a few of the more interesting personnell notes:

- As we guessed, all three quarterbacks come in as first string QB with the now-familiar "OR" between them. Denard is listed first and will almost certainly take the first snap against UConn, Tate is second, and Gardner is third. There won't be a redshirt for Gardner.
- Stephen Hopkins is listed fifth on the depth chart for running backs. Pegged as one of the big time freshman contributors, I expected Hopkins to be second string at worst. Interestingly, Mike Cox comes in for second-team duty, a pounding back to will probably eat up a lot of the short yardage carries I thought would go to Hopkins.
- Jeremy Gallon is buried on the slot receiver depth chart. Whether or not he ever contributes becomes a question.
- Mark Huyge over Taylor Lewan at starting left tackle. I expect Lewan to come close to overtaking Huyge by year's end.
- The wildly hyped Brandon Graham clone Jibreel Black comes in at second-team DE. This is a good sign. The D-line is almost certainly going to be Michigan's best and deepest unit (team-wide) this year.
- Will Campbell is buried on the NT depth chart, which is really surprising. I thought he looked great in the spring game and was going to be a big impact player this year. He may still be a little out of shape, but expect to see him on goal line stands.
- Mark Moundros is listed as "OR" in the MLB first-team depth chart alongside Obi Ezeh. I bet Moundros takes the first snap against UConn.
- Carvin Johnson shows up as the starter at Spur and Marvin Robinson is behind Kovacs at Bandit. I expect both of these freshmen to make a big impact and in the latter's case, for Robinson to be the starter ahead of Kovacs.
- James Rogers is your CB alongside J.T. Floyd. Ugh.