Denouement 2012

#18 Michigan 28 - #10 South Carolina 33

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

There are no storylines here or poorly relayed personal anecdotes that can be shoehorned into a story about yesterday's Outback Bowl. After two years of getting to and even winning bowl games on the strength of miraculous wins that were unsustainable, it's only fitting that Michigan finally arrive on the other end of the spectrum. Even more appropriately, the secondary, which had been heralded as one of the nation's best, was finally shown to be the straw house that we all suspected it was; the unit that was largely responsible for yesterday's loss. Michigan was outgained badly, lost the turnover battle, revealed a still-inept secondary, and had an offense that averaged only 4.3 yards per play. They deserved to lose and they did.

For most, this game marked the final appearance of Jordan Kovacs and Denard Robinson in a Michigan uniform, regardless of the outcome. For me, this is the end of my most frustrating season as a Michigan fan since my senior year (2007). When Rich Rodriguez was the head coach, it was easy to dismiss the losses and near misses: those teams simply weren't very good. There was solace that could be taken in inevitability. This season was supposed to be the swansong of the program's most electric star with a revamped defense and deadly offense. Instead, it was a team that was closer to being 6-7 than 10-3. And in the end, it was the team's defensive anchor who was badly beaten in coverage on the losing touchdown of the bowl game.

I'm happy this season is over and Michigan ushers out another class of Rich Rodriguez players. The Borges/Denard transition has been an outright failure, but anyone could see yesterday that Borges has a plan for this offense and there exists a path forward. The defense was more distressing--a safety blitz that Mattison dialed up early resulted in an unsound secondary leading to yet another huge South Carolina play, for example. The secondary showed either its lack of talent or lack of experience, getting beaten over and over again for big plays. Raymon Taylor showed his youth, and it may be time for even me to admit that Courtney Avery can't guard anyone in man coverage.

Next year, this team only gets better at just about every position save left tackle. The losses of Kovacs, Denard, and Kenny Demens will be covered by players already on the depth charts, while replacements to the likes of Elliott Mealer and JT Floyd will be automatic upgrades. The hardest spot to fill will be Craig Roh--and Taylor Lewan, about which more later--but Jibreel Black has acquitted himself nicely this season and stands primed to slide into the strongside defensive end position next year. Devin Gardner's early flashes of brilliance gave way to the inconsistency that plagued his career to date, but even he will be pushed by Shane Morris early and often during the season.

There exists a path forward and Hoke, Mattison, and Borges are leading this team down the right path. The further this program moves from the three treacherous years of Rodriguez recruiting, the better off it becomes.

Bullets

• Though the story that most publications will have you believe is one of Jadeveon Clowney flatlining Vincent Smith, the dynamic defensive end was pretty quiet all game because Taylor Lewan was out to get himself some first-round money. Lewan will be the biggest loss of the offseason with only faint hopes of finding an adequate replacement from the collection of freshmen and Michael Schofield.
• Speaking of NFL monies, Denard can be an NFL running back and probably did a lot of good for his draft stock in this game. What was most impressive about his running from the halfback position was how decisive his cuts were. Obviously, we knew that already, but seeing it from a different position really illuminated how effective he can be at the next level.
• Brendan Gibbons will be a big asset next season.
• The Michigan defensive line absolutely dominated the South Carolina offensive line, as evidenced by their complete abandonment of the running game. Remove the one or two blown assignments by defensive ends on the inverted veer, and this defensive front was dominant.
• Except when trying to sack the QB.
• Al Borges finally proved he doesn't know how to use Denard with those two-point conversions. The loss of Denard will have one very positive effect on this offense: Borges will no longer fumble around with personnel that he has no idea how to properly utilize. That said, Denard's one pass acted to reconcile some of Borges' shortfallings and the questions about his playcalling: Denard still cannot throw with his injury.
• If you watched the game on TV, you already know this, but those jerseys were an abject failure. I'm not one to complain about this sort of thing, but the numbers and names were illegible and neon. Hopefully this teaches the athletic department some sort of lesson, but probably not.

Next Week (?)
BASKETBALL!

"It's always good to win"

Air Force 25 - #19 Michigan 31
Preview

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Were you to look only at the box score, Michigan's offense against Air Force appeared more like a 2010 Rich Rodriguez-led team: Denard accounted for all but 7 of the team's total yards (208 through the air and 218 on the ground) and chalked up four touchdowns. But this is not the high-powered option offense that turned Denard into a Heisman contender. In fact, there might be serious problems with this edition of the offense.

Denard didn't dominate this game because he was Michigan's best option, as in previous years. Denard dominated this game because he was the only option. Not knowing the intricacies of offensive line play, it seems that the loss of David Molk has had a far more catastrophic effect on the offensive line than anticipated. Though that can't explain Taylor Lewan or Michael Schofield getting outright beaten off the line of scrimmage, it's clear that something is not right. After being unable to run the ball against Alabama, Michigan fans maintained hope: Bama is a defensive force with a stifling run defense. But after looking incapable of moving the ball against Air Force's porous run defense, it's time to start looking a little more closely at what's going on.

Without rewatching the game, the best I can offer is what everyone else can see. The offensive line just can't get any push upfield, which, against Air Force's undersized defensive front is a major red flag. It could be that the line is still trying to gel, but it seemed like Michigan was running power blocking techniques most of the game, which would negate many of the double teams that could cause confusion on the line. Michigan's offensive linemen were going one-on-one with Air Force and losing the battle.

The good news is Denard Robinson specializes in making something out of nothing. He carried the ball 20 times on Saturday, a number he only surpassed five times last season. Denard is always a weapon, but having to use him this extensively against Air Force rehashes concerns about durability. But you do what's necessary to win the game you're currently playing.

Through the air, Denard was slightly improved, bolstered by the emergence of Devin Beanpole Funchess. In Funchess and Devin Gardner, Michigan might actually have a pair of pass-catchers that can threaten teams downfield and in the red zone. We'll see how Funchess fares when teams actually guard him, but this was an impressive coming out party.

A win is a win, but Saturday's game did more to inspire uncertainty than confidence in the offense--at least the defense had an excuse for its mediocre performance. We saw Schofield struggle mightily against Alabama, but no one expected the offensive line to look so shaky against Air Force. Barring better offensive line play going forward, this season will quickly start veering off course.

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Bullets

• So yeah, Funchess. A few of his catches were because Air Force just failed to cover him, but he looks like a serious receiving threat at the tight end position. He'll need to add weight, but that'll come with time. For now, he's the most versatile tight end to the roster.
• Fitz Toussaint struggled today, but that was the fault of the offensive line. There were no running lanes that weren't created from QB draw plays.
• I don't think the defense fared quite as poorly as the box score indicates. Early in the game, the fullback dive was making more yards than expected (this is either because the defensive line was getting pushed off the ball or making the wrong decision on the option; my guess is the latter), but after the half, most of Air Force's yards were on the outside. That happens against option teams. At the end of the day, the Falcons only averaged 4.1 YPC (albeit on 71 carries), which is well below their average.
• The Dennis Norfleet hype train will continue, but mark my words: he is going to make a catastrophic error on a kick return this year.
• I don't really have much insight on this game yet. I need to rewatch it and see exactly what the struggles were on defense and why the offensive line couldn't get any push.

Next Week
Alright, so let's try this again. Michigan takes on UMass next week and should finally be able to really dominate an opponent. The Wolverines have two weeks to prepare for their next real test in Notre Dame. UMass shouldn't present any problems for the offense or defense, so the game needs to be used to iron out run-fit issues and sort out the problems on the offensive line.

Shucking Schofield pt. 1

Editor's note: For those of you new to the blog, this kind of post--schematic breakdowns and film review--is the primary content. There are a number of these posts every week discussing the interesting/awesome/depressing offensive and defensive plays from the previous week.

Also a hat tip to MGoVideo for being my primary source for downloads. And a belated hat tip to reader Tony Sinicropi for directing me to the cheapest place to buy the Adobe suite.

The amount of criticism Vincent Smith received after Saturday's loss seemed misdirected. People complained that he didn't break enough tackles or make yards after contact, but it's hard to do that when you're a 5'7" running back and you're being pulverized by defensive linemen. After watching the first half of the game again--boy, it's hard to watch more than that--one thing stuck out: Michael Schofield (Michigan's new right tackle) was absolutely dominated all game, which was one of the reasons the team had so much trouble running the ball.

It's the first quarter and Michigan comes out in a three-WR shotgun set with Thomas Rawls in the backfield. Michigan will run a counter to Rawls on the play

As the ball is snapped, Taylor Lewan (#77) begins to pull around to the weakside of the formation as Denard steps to the strongside.

A moment later, Denard hands the ball off to Rawls. At this point, Michigan actually has the play set up well: the offensive linemen are holding their blocks, Elliott Mealer has released to the second level to block the middle linebacker, and Lewan is pulling to block the weakside linebacker. If all of these blocks hold up, the first person to touch Rawls should be an Alabama safety.

Things still going as planned. Mealer connects with the middle linebacker and Lewan is in line to block the weakside linebacker but....

...Alabama's weakside defensive end has thrown Schofield (#75) aside. Now, instead of Lewan getting to the second level to block the WILL linebacker, he has to block the weakside defensive end.

Lewan engages the defensive end who is quickly heading upfield. Rawls has to cut the ball back inside where the WILL linebacker is waiting or try to get to the edge still.

Rawls tries getting outside. Despite Lewan tackling the WDE, he's still able to get a hand on Rawls and force him deeper into the backfield where the WILL linebacker can get to him...

....Rawls is toast.

Video

Takeaway
This is one of a number of examples of Schofield struggling in run blocking. His performance against the run is something to watch as the season wears on. While playing primarily on the inside of the offensive line last year, Schofield spent a lot of time doubling defensive tackles with David Molk. In our first view of him on the outside, he allowed defensive ends to rush by him and struggled to uphold blocks one-on-one. Caveats for opposition apply, but this is not a very positive first impression of the team's new right tackle.

What to expect: Offensive Line, Tight Ends 2012

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers

Offensive line projected starters (L to R): Taylor Lewan, Elliott Mealer, Ricky Barnum, Patrick Omameh, Michael Schofield

I don't know if it's fun playing offensive line. It seems like the kind of position that only gets press when they're horrifically blowing out their knees or missing blocks. But I have to imagine that it's rewarding playing in front of Denard Robinson: make your blocks and something awesome might happen on any given play.

Regardless of your feelings toward Rich Rodriguez, the one thing he managed to do was put together a solid unit of offensive linemen (sparse though their numbers may be). With the departure of last year's Rimington Award winner (center David Molk) to the NFL and last year's right tackle Mark Huyge (probably Michigan's worst lineman last year and the inspiration of the Spartans In The Backfield tag on this blog), Michigan has a number of holes to fill. Fortunately, the team has just enough experienced linemen to fill those holes, while Hoke and Co. made it priority #1 to recruit the nation's best offensive linemen.

Michigan's starters will be good. The backups will be young and probably good. But it's difficult to quantify lineman production. Since showcasing some undisciplined talent in his freshman year punctuated by false starts and holding penalties, Taylor Lewan has turned into the best left tackle in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country. Elliott Mealer will complete his tear-jerker story and take over the left guard position this year if recent camp reports are any indication. Ricky Barnum will look to improve on a shaky Sugar Bowl appearance that saw him chuck a few bad snaps by Denard when Molk went down early steps out from behind Schofield to take over for the departed Molk. Omameh will continue being Omameh: an agile, aggressive run-blocking guard. And Schofield will slide over to the right tackle spot after backing up Lewan last year.

That's about all that can be said. Despite a few new names, it's hard not to see this as one of the team's strongest units this year barring injury. The team has collectively averaged over 5 yards/carry each of the last two years, which is not something you can do without a stellar offensive line. Expect a few of these guys on the All Big Ten team by the season's end and some national recognition for Lewan, who, begin to pray now won't forego his senior year to enter the NFL early.

The Backups: Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson, Blake Bars, Jack Miller, Joey Burzynski, Chris Bryant, Ben Braden

Yes, four of the offensive line backups are true freshmen. Yes, the rest of the are unheralded recruits without much on-field experience. Yes, I am also terrified. The good news is, most of the true freshmen are highly touted recruits that come in around the field-ready size. Barring an injury to one of Michigan's starting tackles, the team should be able to (relatively) hide any of these guys on the inside. If Lewan or Schofield should go down for any significant time this year, Kyle Kalis will likely be the first off the bench at either tackle position. The rest will pick up time during blowouts early in the year as the coaching staff looks to solidify each position.

If you want to know more information on the respective freshmen, visit MGoBlog's recruiting round-ups (linked above).

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Projected Starters: Brandon Moore, Ricardo Miller
Because Michigan lacks anyone with the combination of size and athleticism that Kevin Koger brought to the team last year, the best bet for nominal starters are Brandon Moore and Ricardo Miller. Moore will spend most of the season as an extra blocker while Miller, at a slight 6'4", 226 lbs (!!!), will be the kind of flex tight end that is essentially a wide receiver.

Before I started writing this, I thought it wouldn't be that big of a deal. I didn't remember Koger catching a whole ton of passes last year, but unfortunately, I was wrong. Only two players (Jeremy Gallon and Junior Hemingway) caught more balls than Koger. In total, the tight ends last year accounted for 23 receptions (235 yards, 5 TDs).

The Backups: Jordan Paskorz, AJ Williams, Devin Funchess
The backups are either true freshmen (Williams, Funchess) or position switches. Williams is a battleship: coming in a 6'6", 283 lbs, recruiting sites weren't sure if he was an offensive lineman or a tight end. Williams will play alongside Moore in heavy sets on the goal line. Otherwise, he's on the bench and getting into better shape. Funchess is a highly regarded, Ricardo Miller-esque tight end/WR hybrid. Unless Miller proves unserviceable, Funchess will likely spend the season bulking up on the bench. Jordan Paskorz hasn't seen the field in two seasons on the team. He'll be a non-entity this year.

All-in-all, it's going to be touch and go at the tight end position this season. Unless Moore proves to be a more agile route runner and pass catcher, chances we'll see the tight ends used only when the offensive line could use some extra bulk in short-yardage situations. Expect their collective receptions to drop considerably: 15-18 would be a reasonable estimate. Instead, Borges will likely try and spread the field a little more with receivers and open things up for Denard as much as possible.

2012 Sugar Bowl Preview

All 2012 Sugar Bowl coverage can be found on the Bowl Game page.

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Allstate Sugar Bowl
#13 Michigan (10-2) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (11-2)

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Kickoff 8:30 pm EST

ESPN

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Previous Game
#5 Virginia Tech 10 - #20 Clemson 38. The last time the Hokies took the field, things did not go as planned, as the team was blown out in the ACC title game against Clemson. Much hyped running back David Wilson was completely shut down, rushing for just 32 yards on 11 carries. And with the Hokies down by so much, QB Logan Thomas threw the ball 44 times and was not great: 22/44, 274 yards (6.2 YPA), 1 TD, 2 INTs.

Meanwhile, Clemson did just about anything they wanted. As a team, they rushed for 4.8 YPC on 45 carries, which is the best performance of any team against the Hokies this season. QB Tajh Boyd went 20/29 for 240 yards and 3 TDs. The vaunted Hokie defense was wholly shredded: 457 total yards, 8.0 YPA, 4.8 YPC, 0 turnovers forced.

Ohio 34 - #15 Michigan 40. Game column. I mean, you know what happened.

Offense vs. Virginia Tech
If the Hokies are known for anything, it's their defense. Virginia Tech boasts the #17 rushing defense, #13 pass efficiency defense, and #8 scoring defense, while coming in at 30th in turnover margin. They run an aggressive, blitzing defense that gets most of its production from its secondary and pair of sophomore defensive ends. As mentioned around here earlier, four of the Hokies top five tacklers are in the secondary. Those four secondary members account for 3.5 sacks, 8 INTs, and 21 tackles for loss. The Hokie secondary plays downhill, blitzes frequently and is often involved in the run game.

While that sounds intimidating, the Hokie linebackers are subpar at best. They overpursue to the ball, have trouble filling running lanes, and bite on play action frequently. That the Hokies have such a good run defense is due to the fact that they sell out against it with their secondary. On the defensive line, meanwhile, defensive ends JR Collins and James Gayle have some crazy numbers, combining for 20 tackles for loss and 13 sacks. The defensive tackles are unimpressive. Frankly, I'm not sure how this defense boasts such good numbers across the board.

Offensively, Michigan should make hay against the interior of the Hokie defense. Al Borges' playbook has the kind of counters that should eat the Virginia Tech linebackers alive, and the defensive line is either ineffective defensive tackles or pin-your-ears-back defensive ends. When you take chances and blitz a lot, you create turnovers and big negative plays, but Michigan has been good in preparation for defenses this year and has all of the pieces to victimize the Hokie defense.

With Denard coming off his best game of the year against Ohio (14/17 for 167 yards, 3 TDs, 26 carries for 170 yards, 2 TDs) and seemingly healthy, Michigan matches up well against this defense. Though Mark Huyge's matchup against the Hokie defensive ends looms large, the rest of the line should be able to contain the blitz-heavy front of Virginia Tech. In the secondary, the Hokies will show both man and zone coverage, and while MGoBlog has been kind of terrified of the Virginia Tech secondary, I'm more confident in Michigan's ability to find holes in the intermediate areas of the field where the linebackers were supposed to be*.

On the ground, Fitz Toussaint should have a big game. Given the struggles of the Virginia Tech linebackers and Toussaint's noted ability to cut back and burst upfield, if the offensive line can create any holes (and it seems like they should be able to), Toussaint should gash the Hokie defense frequently.

*Something I've been thinking about this year: Rich Rodriguez's QB Oh Noes were usually used to attack opposing safeties and get big plays. Borges' have been used to attack linebackers for 10-15 yard gains. I think this will be a huge factor in the game.

Defense vs. Virginia Tech
Though the Virginia Tech defense boasts some impressive numbers, the offense is not quite as intimidating, at least on paper: 29th in rushing offense, 66th in passing offense, and 52nd in scoring offense. The dangermen are running back David Wilson and QB Logan Thomas, but really, most of the work falls on Wilson's shoulders.

The Hokies run the ball about 60% of the time with Wilson averaging 6.1 YPC. Though it may qualify me as a crazy person, I don't think too much of Wilson. He has a tendency to bounce the ball outside even when he shouldn't, and despite having a devastating spin move, seems like a pretty regular running back. There are mitigating factors: the interior of the Hokie offensive line might be the worst that Michigan faces all year. The Hokies are more or less unable to run up the middle despite being fond of using pulling linemen and running power. Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen are set up for big games, and if Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, and Jordan Kovacs are disciplined and maintain the edge on rushing plays, I expect Wilson to have another poor game, closer to his performance against Clemson in the ACC title game than against some of the team's weaker opponents.

Oddly, it's Thomas who scares me more than anything else on Virginia Tech. Thomas is a slightly mobile rocket cannon (think Ben Roethlisberger, except not a despicable human being). With a clean pocket, Thomas can hit receivers in stride and rifle passes into any hole in the defense. Maybe it's just residual fear from 2010 or turning Braxton Miller into a capable thrower, but watching film on Thomas makes me fearful of this game.

Getting to Thomas is key. He has a tendency to throw some bad interceptions, but is far too accurate with a clean pocket for Michigan's secondary to adequately cover all game. Oddly, despite the Virginia Tech interior line being horrible in run blocking, they seem to handle pass blocking pretty well as long as the defense is only bringing four linemen. Greg Mattison blitzes and Martin's ability to shuck interior linemen on pass plays are what is going to decide this game for Michigan's defense.

They Hokies also have a bit of option running in their game. They have shown both the inverted veer as well as a triple option look in the games I've watched this season. Earlier in the year, Mattison mentioned that the contain defenders are always forcing the QB to hand the ball off on option plays, but I would expect them to break tendency against Virginia Tech. Thomas is a huge, rumbling, 6'6" pillar that gets yards because he's bigger than you are. Risking David Wilson in the open field is a worse option than letting Thomas try and rumble for more than five yards.

Prediction
Aside from Thomas' arm and the potential for Wilson to get hyphy on the edge of Michigan's defense, there's really not much about this matchup that worries me. I think Michigan is supremely suited to attack a Virginia Tech defense that is overly aggressive and weak in the front seven. On the other side of the ball, Martin and Van Bergen should show some inspired play against an interior line that gets thrown around by basically everyone. If Michigan can't get any pressure on Thomas, this game could quickly turn ugly, but Mattison and the defensive line will make sure that doesn't happen. Good Denard vs. Evil Denard given, but Michigan's offense gets it clicking early and often.

Michigan 34 - Virginia Tech 24

Preview: Iowa 2011

#15 Michigan (7-1) vs. Iowa (5-3) Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City,Iowa Kickoff 12 pm EST ESPN Forecast: High 50s, 10% chance of rain

Last week
Iowa 21 - Minnesota 22. Last week, Iowa did the seemingly impossible and lost to moribund Minnesota. They did this despite a 252-yard, 7.9 YPC day from star running back Marcus Coker. How you manage those numbers against anyone and only score 21 points is beyond me--well, Iowa did miss two field goals during the game, but still--but Iowa did, ending MGoBlog's GopherQuest: a journey to see if Minnesota would be the worst Big Ten team ever. Beyond Coker, the rest of the Hawkeyes put up decent numbers if Minnesota were a real opponent (they're not): quarterback James Vandenberg completed 66% of his passes for 177 yards (7.7 YPA) and the team only turned the ball over once.

So the offense threw away 6 points in missed field goals and only scored 21 against arguably the worst defense in the country, and that might have been the better of the two units on the day. Gopher quarterback Marqueis Gray managed one of his best days as a passer completing 11 of 17 passes for 193 yards (11.4 YPA), one touchdown, and no interceptions. The ground game was similarly effective. Duane Bennett carries the ball 20 times for 101 yards, and Gray carried it 11 times for 62 yards. Simply put, Iowa's cover-2 bend don't break defense was particularly bendy and occasionally breaky.

Though a shocking loss, last Saturday shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. Iowa already has a loss to "in-state rival" Iowa State and a 13-3 loss to Penn State. This is probably not a very good football team.

Purdue 14 - #18 Michigan 36. You know what happened last week: Michigan played a vastly inferior opponent and for the first time since 2007 (in the Big Ten that is) actually beat that opponent convincingly [Edit: There was also that Minnesota game, but the Gophers can hardly be considered a Big Ten team]. Despite Michigan's tandem of quarterbacks throwing a pair of interceptions, Michigan cruised to victory thanks in large part to Fitz Toussaint's breakout rushing performance (170 yards, 2 TDs, 8.5 YPC). Denard and the passing game found their stride thanks in part to some new passing routes debuted by Al Borges, while the rushing game was successful because Purdue's linebackers are slow as something that's very slow.

It wasn't a flawless performance by the team, however. Denard was still showing signs of inexperience going through his reads and Devin Gardner's interception was, well, not great. These were minor issues in an otherwise thorough beating of a lesser team.

Offense vs. Iowa
For the first time in a while, the Iowa defense is mediocre, ranking 69th nationally in rushing defense (163.63 YPG), 91st in pass efficiency defense, and 40th in scoring defense (23.13 PPG). The most surprising ranking is the team's terrible pass defense. For a unit that plays almost exclusively cover-2, seeing that kind of performance against the pass is surprising. Then again, it's possible that opponents are using the Hawkeyes conservativeness against them, forcing matchups between slot receivers and linebackers. I haven't watched enough Iowa film to really tell, but something is rotten in their secondary.

The team's one defensive star is defensive end Broderick Binns. Adrian Clayborn he is not, but that shouldn't matter anyway since the last time the Wolverines faced Clayborn, he was completely shut down by Taylor Lewan. Other than Binns, the Iowa defense is unremarkable. They run the blandest of Big Ten Cover-2 Defenses and have very few playmakers. Beating their defense will be a matter of specifically attacking their cover-2 scheme and not turning the ball over.

As Iowa's rankings suggest, Michigan shouldn't have any trouble moving the ball on the ground against the Hawkeyes. Either inside or out, Michigan has the advantage. The Iowa starting defensive tackles weigh in at 280 lbs and 277 lbs, which you can get away with running solely four-man fronts but is still not preferable. If Michigan's inside linemen can get some push against the Iowa front four, they should be solidly in the 5+ YPC range. On the outside, it will be interesting to see if Iowa plays a nickel package at all. If they don't, expect the Michigan offense to zone read their linebackers to death. If they do, the running game will feature more Toussaint and less QB carries.

Through the air, the battle will be Good Denard vs. Evil Denard. You might remember this Evil Denard highlight against Iowa from 2009

If you chose to block that out, I don't blame you. This is the kind of thing that cover-2 defenses do to unseasoned quarterbacks, the likes of which we appear to have again this year. If Borges can find Denard some easy throws and not saddle him with long down and distances, Michigan should be able to move the ball well.

Defense vs. Iowa
The Iowa offense is about as milquetoast as their defense, ranking somewhere in the 50-60 range in almost all categories. They're arguably the most traditional offense in the Big Ten running lots of power-I formations and depending heavily on the run game. This, in theory, works for them. The Hawkeyes have an experienced offensive line and the aforementioned Coker who is capable of racking up 252 albeit against a terrible defense. Coker is 6'0", 230 lbs and is basically a freight train. He doesn't have too much shake to him, but with that kind of size, picking up three to five yards is a breeze. The key to stopping Coker is to plug him at the line of scrimmage. If Michigan's defensive line is getting pushed off the line, it's going to mean bad things, but if the DL and linebackers can close off initial gaps, Coker can be contained.

It'll be interesting to see what kind of blitz pressure Mattison uses in this game. The zone blitzes that he's shown all year and almost exclusively pass blitzes. Against Purdue, the defensive line stunted more frequently than they ever have before, often to great effect. Don't be surprised to see the defensive line stunting a lot on running downs to try and bait Coker into gaps and confuse the offensive line.

Junior quarterback Vandenberg can best be described as Just a Quarterback. On the season, he's completing 62% of his passes for 8.52 YPA. He does have a 17/4 TD/INT ratio, but he is of the Iowa quarterback mold: system quarterback, game manager, [some other backhanded compliment]. Give him time in the pocket or make a mistake and he'll hurt you, especially with Marvin McNutt on the outside. But Vandenberg doesn't move particularly well and won't beat you on his own.

McNutt is the real dangerman. Michigan has already played a pterodactyl-like creature in Notre Dame's Michael Floyd and came away with all of their limbs in tact. In Iowa's more traditional offense, there will be less opportunities for McNutt to beat the Michigan defense than Floyd had. If Michigan can shut down McNutt or force Vandenberg to throw only underneath passes to him because of blitz pressure, that will cripple the Iowa passing game.

Prediction
It's hard to be scared of a team the week after they lose to Minnesota, especially one that seems to match up so poorly with Michigan. Though I expect Coker to have a good game, my fear of him declined exponentially after Michigan's defensive ends and linebackers showed that they knew how to contain the edge. Coker is going to spend most of the game running straight ahead between the tackles directly into linebackers and safeties who will fall on contact but also drag him to the ground. Vandenberg will be Vandenberg and get his yards through the air. If most of those are going to non-McNutt players, Michigan is in good shape.

Offensively, Michigan is going to have a very up and down day. The Iowa defense is constructed to either stuff drives before they really get rolling or allow them to slowly rumble down the field. Denard and Co. will have a few three-and-outs during the game, but they'll also string together a number of quality drives. Toussaint comes back to earth but still eclipses 100 yards. Also, I expect that Denard will be targeted on a pass sometime during the game. In the end, the good drives outweigh the bad ones and Michigan comes away with the victory.

Michigan 31 - Iowa 24

Counter draw mailbag

Last week, I received this e-mail about Michigan's deployment of the long-awaited speed option

I imagine you've already got this one in the hopper, but I'd like to see a picture page on the speed option that went for the long TD. It is a counter to the zone read, right? What I mean is, when we line up with Denard in the gun and Vince Smith to his left, the zone read would have Smith go right with Denard having the option to keep it and go left. With the speed option from that same formation, the play goes right, which I think has to give us a numbers advantage since the D has to account for the potential of Denard keeping it on the read option and going left.

My response was fairly simple: It's not a counter, necessarily, but it is another play that is based from the same initial setup. To wit:

I'm not sure that the speed option is really a "counter" (in a football sense) for anything. On a lot of those QB lead draws, Denard follows his RB (see, for example, the QB Oh Noes where Denard follows his back who acts as a lead blocker). This is, however, a variation of the QB lead draw, which will keep defenses guessing and force them to play fundamentally sound defense. The real key now will be how Borges tweaks these play calls. Making subtle adjustments to these QB lead draws/speed option/etc. are what keeps a defense guessing and, hopefully, guessing incorrectly. So if he can establish one or two more plays that begin with Denard following his RB to the playside, Borges can put in place plays like those QB Oh Noes that catch defenses cheating.

(This is not a complex concept. A while ago at Dr. Saturday, Chris Brown showed how Brian Kelly begins all of his passing routes with vertical stems so as not to tip his hand to an opposing defense. This is the same basic formula applied to the passing spread.)

As we saw multiple times against Minnesota, Borges added another wrinkle to this structure with a counter draw. Ohio State used the same play against Michigan last year to devastating effect and it was one of those plays that had everyone asking why Rodriguez hadn't installed it in the Michigan offense yet. Enter Borges.

It's the first quarter on Michigan's second drive. The Wolverines are in a three-wide look with Mike Shaw to Denard's left. Minnesota is in a 4-3 over front.

As the ball is snapped, Denard and Shaw both take a step to their left, much like they would with the QB lead runs. However, Taylor Lewan is starting to pull around to the backside of the play.

Denard takes another step to his left but Shaw stops and will begin to head in the opposite direction. As you can see, all of the Gophers' linebackers have keyed on the QB lead play. The defenders are all flowing to the strongside of the field.

As Denard hands the ball off, you can see how out of position Minnesota's defenders are. They've all sold out on the QB carry and have flowed out of position. Lewan is continuing to pull to the weakside of the play where he will be a lead blocker. He is about to engage and double the weakside DE, which I think is the wrong play. If he turns the corner and heads upfield, he likely blocks the only defender capable of tackling Shaw.

As Shaw turns the corner, the weakside WR Jeremy Gallon flattens the Minnesota safety who has come up to defend the run. Lewan is flattening the weakside DE. You can see the legs of the final Gopher defender in the top left of the image. If Lewan heads upfield to block him instead, this is a touchdown.

QB power oh noes pt. 1

Yesterday I broke down a QB stretch against EMU that utilized gap blocking and power principles. Specifically, the playside tackle and center both individually pulled to the first gap playside of them. This... well, it didn't work. It took too long for the linemen to pull playside and EMU was able to stretch the play to the boundary where the pursuit defenders could tackle Denard. I concluded with NO MOAR GAP BLOCKING, which isn't entirely accurate. It should have read don't block like this anymore because it totally sucks. Early in the second half, Michigan ran some more basic power runs with Denard in the shotgun that were more effective and, more importantly, set up the blogosphere-coined QB Oh Noes. This is the setup; the Oh Noes will come later today (UPDATE: Part 2).

Michigan just received the ball to begin the 3rd quarter. This is their first play from scrimmage of the second half. Michigan comes out in a three-wide set with Toussaint in the backfield and a tight end on the line of scrimmage. Eastern Michigan is in a basic 4-3.

As the ball is snapped, Mark Huyge's first step is away from the line of scrimmage as he pulls across the formation to the weakside of the field. A pulling lineman is often a key to the opposing linebackers of what direction the play is headed.

Toussaint crosses Denard and fakes a handoff (this was never a zone read). Denard keeps the ball as Huyge pulls across the formation. Ricky Barnum seals the playside DT to the inside while Taylor Lewan punishes EMU's playside defensive end, kicking him out to the sideline and opening a huge hole for Denard to run through.

Huyge is now Denard's lead blocker and about to pancake an EMU linebacker.

EMU linebacker: nullified. Denard has turf and a free safety ahead of him and will pick up eight yards on the play.

All power schemes are not created equal. The one we saw yesterday nullified Denard's most dangerous weapon (his explosiveness) and allowed EMU to stretch the play to the outside. This is a more traditional power play, except that it's run from the shotgun. This is a deadly offense. A defense has to protect against a handoff, zone read, QB keeper (like here), and the threat of a pass, all with power blocking schemes. With the talent of Michigan's linemen, this kind of playcall should be a staple of the offense.

Later today (UPDATE: Part 2), we'll see Al Borges doing his best Rich Rodriguez impression with a QB Oh Noes that unfortunately falls incomplete, but at this stage, it's more important that we see Borges tinkering with his systems and looking for ways to exploit a defense. In any case, this is proof that power running schemes can be effective with Denard in the shotgun.

Pulling linemen on QB stretch

On designed QB runs against Eastern, Denard was being stopped for little or no gain on more plays than I can ever remember happening in the past. Especially against EMU-level competition, the QB stretches and draws that became a staple of the offense in 2010 were being stopped behind or just beyond the line of scrimmage. One reason for this loss of effectiveness is move from a zone blocking scheme to a gap blocking scheme with pulling linemen.

It's early in the first quarter and Michigan has a 1st and 10 on their first drive. The offense comes out in shotgun with two tight ends and two receivers. Toussaint is lined up to Denard's left. Eastern is in a 4-3 under front with both of their safeties in the box.

As the ball is snapped, the offensive line starts blocking to the left line except David Molk and Taylor Lewan, whose first step is away from the line of scrimmage as they pull around the formation.

A moment later, you can see Lewan and Molk pulling toward the playside as LG Ricky Barnum and playside TE Brandon Moore block the playside DT and DE respectively. Toussaint is headed outside the tackles as a lead blocker.

Lewan and Molk are still running to pull beyond Moore and Barnum respectively. The EMU linebackers are flowing with the play. Denard is looking for a hole to run through but there aren't any.

Zone reading Manti Te'o pt. 2

As shown earlier, against Notre Dame, Al Borges was able to get quality carries for Denard by optioning off of Irish linebacker Manti Te'o rather than a defensive end. Because of this unorthodox zone read, Te'o was never able to recognize the play in time and Denard ran for 65 yards on the three zone read carries. While two of those instances featured two tight-end sets, Borges also used essentially the same play and blocking scheme from a three-wide set with an H-back in the backfield.

Whereas before Notre Dame was in a 4-3 defensive front, here they're lined up in a 3-4 package. Te'o is the inside linebacker shaded over Michigan's left guard.

As the ball is snapped, the offensive line zone blocks to the right. The difference from the play we saw earlier today is Kevin Koger, who is lined up as an H-back rather than a tight end. Previously, Koger was the strongside tight end and blocked Notre Dame's playside linebacker. Here, he will pull across the formation to engaged the same linebacker while Denard once again reads Te'o.

At the mesh point, you can see Te'o crashing down on the handoff. He shows discipline by staying above the offensive and defensive lines. You can see Koger continuing to pull across the formation.

WMU stunt blitzes

While rewatching the game yesterday in an effort to track Will Campbell's game time and performance (which were limited and not very encouraging, respectively, and not nearly interesting enough for the full post I had intended on writing), I came across something far more interesting. After diagramming two blitzes that Michigan used on Saturday, both structured around a linebacker stunt and overloading one side of the offensive line, a few commenters wondered whether or not a more competent offensive line might be able to more effectively block the blitzes. Their arguments:

The mistake is buy [sic] the play side guard and center. The guard needs to slide out to take Kovacs and the center take Brinks. When the center sees Heinenger bail into zone, it's obviously a zone blitz and he needs to find the blitzing side and get the guard wide to pick up the safety. With and experienced line who has gelled and knows how to identify and pick up blitzes, this won't work nearly as well.

and

I recall: 1) later the D looking something very similar to this and Kovacs dropping back and getting a tip; and 2) the D turning into a near feeding frenzy as the WMU OLine seemed so confused play after play. Hopefully this is the Mattison effect and it continues into the season.

Fortunately, Western ran an almost identical blitz early in the second half.

Michigan is in a four-wide set with Vincent Smith in the backfield. You may recognize the defensive alignment from the blitzes diagrammed earlier. Western Michigan is crowding the line of scrimmage with linebackers in an effort to disguise coverage and where the blitz is coming from. Much like the plays Michigan ran, WMU is in a three-lineman set with a NT covering the center and three men outside of the offensive guards (in this instance, we'll be watching the weakside blitz [top of the screen]).

As the ball is snapped, Western blitzes all seven men on the line of scrimmage. The outermost linebackers for WMU begin to stunt inside.

As you can see, Taylor Lewan is blocking the edge rusher, Michael Schofield is blocking the WDE, and David Molk is blocking the NT, leaving a hole in the A gap for the stunting WMU linebacker to blitz through unblocked.

As the WMU blitzer shoots the A gap, blocker extraordinaire Vincent Smith recognizes the weakside blitz and steps in front of Denard to make the block.

Smith steps up and chops down the WMU defender, allowing Denard to get the pass off (it will fall incomplete to Roundtree, mostly because this was at the beginning of the torrential downpour).

I think we all would agree that Michigan's offensive line is more cohesive and talented than Western Michigan's, yet the Broncos were still able to get essentially a free blitzer into the backfield with the same stunt principle. Fortunately, Smith chops the blitzer before he can cause any real damage, but the schemes are what I'm concerned with. Notice also that WMU executed this stunt blitz on the strongside of the field as well. You can the WMU linebacker #29 about to shoot the strongside A gap between Molk and Omameh completely unblocked.

Obviously, there are some differences between this play and the ones Michigan ran. First of all, the WMU nose tackle rushed rather than dropping off into coverage. This changes the play in a number of subtle ways. Whereas Michigan blitzers Kovacs and Demens shot the B gap (between the guard and tackle), the WMU blitzers were attacking the A gap (between the guard and center). In my opinion, this probably made it easier for Smith to recognize and block the weakside blitz as he only needed to step up in the pocket rather than come across the face of his QB.

Secondly, with or without the NT dropping into coverage, it's the guard's responsibility to block the defensive end shaded to his outside shoulder. Given that there are three players outside of the guard, including a DE at the 3-tech spot, it's the guard's responsibility to block that DE while the tackle is responsible for the edge rusher, and the running back is responsible for the stunt blitz. In this play, we see Schofield block the weakside DE (Omameh blocks the SDE), Lewan blocks the edge rusher (as does Huyge on the strongside), and Smith steps up to take out the blitzer stunting to the middle. When Michigan used this concept, the NT dropped into coverage and the WMU center doubled the DE. This necessitated that Michigan blitz the B gap instead of the A gap as WMU does here.

The point is that Mattison's defensive principles are sound and will work independent of the opposition's skill level or coaching. The chances that Michigan can land the punishing sacks that they did against WMU against better opposition is unlikely as more skilled running backs will probably make the block that Smith does here, but I'm willing to risk sending Kovacs or Demens full bore against a running back in the backfield.

UPDATE
Per a commenter's request, here's video of the play in question (:41 mark)


For what it's worth, I'm still working on getting an open source video editor to do this myself.

Purdue preview

Michigan is now 1-1 against inexperienced starters, with a shredding at the hands of may-not-be-terrible Matt McGloin and an up and down day against Nathan Scheelhaase. Next up, Michigan gets to take on what's left of the Purdue quarterbacking depth chart in Sean Robinson. But before we get to that, the numbers:

Michigan Defense Offense Passing 115th nationally 285.56 YPG 28th nationally 262.44 YPG Rushing 84th nationally 168.11 YPG 9th nationally 273.44 YPG Scoring 104th nationally 33.89 PPG 12th nationally 38.89 PPG

Purdue Defense Offense Passing 64th nationally 218.22 YPG 114th nationally 137.33 YPG Rushing 49th nationally 142.78 YPG 39th nationally 173.22 YPG Scoring 74th nationally 27.67 PPG 111th nationally 17.56 PPG

So... Michigan needs to win this game; Purdue is thoroughly awful. Their defense is in the middle of the pack nationally, and given what Michigan did to Illinois' top-20 defense last week, that shouldn't be a concern at all. On the other side of the ball, Purdue has little or no offense, ranking in the bottom 10 of passing and scoring offense.

Freshman Sean Robinson didn't even see playing time until four weeks ago when he came in against Minnesota. This is because he's a freshman and if Purdue had any luck at all, they wouldn't have to be playing him this year. But their quarterback position has been thoroughly destroyed by injuries and now this is where they find themselves. On the year, Robinson is 32/68 for 233 yards (3.3 YPA (!)) and a 2/4 TD/INT ratio. On the ground, he's no more impressive, boasting 29 carries for 58 yards and no rushing touchdowns. But those numbers need to be tempered a bit as his only three career starts are against Illinois, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. We can expect Robinson to be better than those numbers (especially against Michigan's horrid defense) but he's the least likely of anyone to truly pick apart Michigan's defense.

Speaking of which, despite a fair amount of statistical analysis that says Michigan's defense was terrible last week, I was pretty encouraged by the improvements of the D against Illinois. The move back to a base 3-4 look was largely positive and if Michigan sticks with it, I think the defense could be whipped into functioning, non-crater shape by the year's end. With Craig Roh's move to the defensive line hopefully permanent, Michigan could actually turn in a decent performance, so long as the secondary avoids injuries and doesn't totally implode.

Michigan's offense is going to move the ball. Easily. This shouldn't even be a contest. Although Purdue may have the best defensive lineman in the Big Ten in defensive end Ryan Kerrigan. If Taylor Lewan can effectively shut down Kerrigan, Michigan should have no problem in this game. I also expect Michigan to largely run away from Kerrigan's side of the field, and we'll probably see the return of Denard optioning off of the playside defensive end. Otherwise, the Purdue defense shouldn't provide any resistance to this offense.

Prediction: Michigan wins. This should be the easiest game Michigan has all year in the Big Ten and should look more like UConn than Indiana or Illinois. Purdue's offense is anemic behind what is essentially Michigan's secondary: a young prospect that's being forced into the lineup way before he should. Robinson showed good things in the first half against Wisconsin before properly imploding. So while I expect Robinson to have a far better day than he's shown all year, his inexperience and youth will cost the Purdue offense a few too many times.

I expect to see Michigan come out in primarily a 3-4 set again, and I expect it to perform pretty well. I was encouraged by the defensive performance against Illinois and think that with a few more games in the 3-4 system, we start to see some of the wrinkles ironed out. Michigan will hold a decent running attack mostly in check and Purdue's passing game will be thwarted on bad passes or negative plays. Though I do expect to see Michigan victimized on more quarterback roll-out passes than we've seen the last few weeks.

Offensively, this should be a game of little resistance. Michigan's offense will only stall when they do it to themselves, and we should see a similar onslaught like we did against Illinois. Denard will have a huge game 200/200 and should account for three or four touchdowns. We will even see him break a long run again.

Finally, Michigan wins the turnover battle though not by much. The defense forces maybe one turnover but Purdue's defense doesn't provide much fight as Michigan's offense gets it clicking early. Greg Robinson will show another game of defensive improvement as Rich Rod and company allow him to continue running his schemes, but there are still a few infuriating breakdowns. Ultimately, though, this should be an easy one. Michigan 42-24

Where are they now?: The 2010 offense

After seven games, Michigan sits at 5-2 with losses to Iowa and Michigan State that rank somewhere between disappointing to soul crushing. Denard Robinson went from Heisman front runner to footnote. And Michigan's defense is quickly proving to be even more inept than last year, although with the attrition and God-hates-us loss of Troy Woolfolk before the season, this could be expected. Now it's time to take a look at how the team is performing as a whole through the first seven games of the year and where that puts them for the rest of the season. First up, the offense:

Quarterbacks. Denard Robinson has planted himself firmly in the starting position with his other-worldly performance early in the year and his promising, albeit mistake prone games against Iowa and Michigan State. When Denard has been on his game, he's more or less single-handedly carried Michigan to victory. Unfortunately, he's been sporadic of late. When Denard has been out of the game, Tate Forcier has relieved him to resounding effect. Which is to say that Michigan finally has depth at the most important position on the field. Behind Forcier, we've seen brief, unimpressive appearances from true freshman Devin Gardner. Gardner now has some injury concerns and may be able to apply for a medical redshirt which would be best for all parties involved.

Denard still has a lot of work to do. His recent plague of interceptions in the last two games show his infancy in the passing game and will present problems going forward against defenses like Wisconsin and Ohio State. So while Denard has shown he can lead Michigan to extraordinary heights, he also presents the same problem that Michigan encountered last year: You live by the Focie... Shoelace, you die by the Shoelace.

Running backs. Michigan's running backs have been, in a word, unimpressive. This blog projected that Vincent Smith was going to come into the season as the starter, but an off-season ACL surgery put him behind the 8-ball. Mike Shaw has been the nominal starter and has fluctuated between mediocre and pretty good. Smith, meanwhile, hasn't shown much aside from showing a few flashes of Mike Hart-itude.

On the more positive side, Stephen Hopkins has come on in the last two games and shown that he's more than just a short yardage back. Hopkins provides the size that Michigan's other backs can't, but more impressively, he's shown unexpected quickness and good lateral movement. If Hopkins continues to improve the way he projects to, he could be Michigan's starter next year (alongside recent verbal commit Demetrius Hart, who looks to make an immediate impact on a lackluster backfield).

Wide receivers/Tight ends. This could look identical to the running backs section above. Michigan has a bunch of Big Ten average wide receivers that all get the job done. Roy Roundtree, as expected, has been the most targeted receiver of the year, as he was at the tail end of 2009. Darryl Stonum has also improved from his sporadic 2009 season and become a consistent threat. The most encouraging sign in recent weeks, however, has been the emergence of injury-plagued Junior Hemingway. After recovering from yet another injury, Hemingway has proven that he's the most consistent downfield threat for Michigan and might have the best hands on the team.

In less encouraging news, frequent workhorse Martavious Odoms broke his foot and will be out for most, if not all of the season. And Michigan's other receivers (Kelvin Grady, Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, Je'Ron Stokes) have made very little impact.

Michigan's tight ends have been largely removed from the passing game and have been used more in the H-back, linebacker-clubbing role. Kevin Koger and Martell Webb have both become some of Michigan's more effective downfield blockers and are vital in Michigan's short-yardage package. This isn't much of a let down as Michigan's offense has enough weapons without them, and they've both been performing exceedingly well in the running game.

Offensive line. Aside from Denard's early-season emergence as a Heisman hopeful, Michigan's offensive line has been the most encouraging part of the year. Though they've shown flaws in the last two weeks (primarily issues with stunting defensive linemen and some pass protection issues), the O-line has solidified themselves as possibly the best unit in the Big Ten. Redshirt freshman Taylor Lewan's emergence as a force at left tackle is a huge win for the future of the program. Meanwhile, the healthy return of David Molk has been a godsend (despite, ya know, his injury against Iowa). Steven Schilling was talked up by most media outlets before the season, but he has been thoroughly just-OK. Patrick Omameh has shown some pass-protection problems, but is unstoppable in the run game. And Perry Dorrestein has been unremarkable, meant in the most flattering way.

What does it mean for the future?
Michigan's offense is in line to be arguably the best in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country. With the health of Denard, however, goes the health of the offense. Despite Forcier's ability to move Michigan up and down the field against quality opponents, Denard is the electricity that makes it run.

Surrounding Denard is now a squad that not only has good starters but often equally as good backups. In two years, the offensive line went from one of the team's biggest liabilities to one of its biggest strengths. And at the other skill positions, Denard has playmakers that can do just enough to make this team truly dangerous. However, the lack of a game changer at either the wide receiver or running back position is going to hurt the team down the stretch.

Next year, Michigan is going to return almost everyone on the offense (the joys of having a young team) save a few offensive linemen whose backups are firmly entrenched and have shown promising upside. Long gone are the days of the Nick Sheridan/Steven Threet monster that made the future of the program looks hopeless. If nothing else, Rich Rodriguez has turned Michigan's offense into the relative juggernaut everyone expected when he arrived in Ann Arbor, and has the team poised to get stronger on that side of the ball in the coming years.

Up tomorrow: The 2010 defense

Bowling Green: What to watch/hope for

With Michigan coming up against what should be a blow out against Bowling Green on Saturday, the team should have an agenda that goes beyond just winning. This is the last game to get experience for some of the younger members of the team before entering Big Ten season when the need for depth will be even more essential. Without further ado:

• Devin Gardner needs to take a significant amount of snaps. It would've been nice if he had the chance to do so against UMass but we all know that wasn't possible. If Gardner really is #2 on the depth chart, he needs to have some relevant game experience if he's going to be effective. If Denard goes down for any significant period of time, Michigan doesn't have to defense to sit and wait for him to get healthy. They need Gardner to be able to pick up where Denard left off--I know this is unrealistic, but there can't be as significant a falloff as it seems there would be now--without committing countless turnovers and negative yardage plays. Ideally, Gardner starts the second half of the game, but chances are Denard plays at least a few series in the third quarter.
• Speaking of playing time, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Cullen Christian, Taylor Lewan, Terrence Talbott, and Courtney Avery all need to see the field in this game if we expect them to contribute this year. If Michigan has a decent lead early, I'd like to see the young corner backs get on the field when they're not just doing mop up duty. Lewan will very likely start the game given his performance against UMass, and Toussaint (and the other tailbacks for that matter) needs to get some reps before the Big Ten season starts.
• Some sort of resurgence on defense. Everyone in the program said that they weren't mentally prepared for the game against UMass, and let's hope that's the case rather than the defense being as poor as it appeared. Bowling Green will be playing without their starting quarterback, and Michigan should be able to stop them fairly easily. If Bowling Green starts putting up points in this game that don't come off of fluke plays (e.g., Hagerup's dropped punt), we need to go into serious panic mode: 2009 looms large.
• Continue taking deep shots down the field. Bowling Green is the kind of team that Michigan should be able to pick up yards with relatively easily. As such, I'd like to see them take a few more shots down the field like they did against UMass. Denard needs to develop as a deep ball passer and this is going to be one of the last chances he has to do so without too many repercussions (knock on wood).
• Maybe most importantly, seeing a bounceback performance from Obi Ezeh and James Rogers and the rest of the defense that played poorly against UMass. More than trying to draw conclusions about how good they are in the long run--probably not very good--having confidence and a solid performance under your belt before heading into Big Ten play is for the best.

I know everyone is saying that this year feels different than last because of Denard and so on and so forth, but I can't shake the feeling of last year's 4-0 start quite yet, especially not after that UMass game. Michigan has a lot of questions and holes still and Saturday's game is the last time that they'll have a chance to test out new answers. Until Michigan has a "6" in the wins column, I won't feel comfortable with this team. Maybe a solid performance on Saturday will temper that feeling, but for now, I'm still in panic mode.

2010 Depth Chart thoughts

You're all probably well aware that an unofficial depth chart for Michigan has been released for the UConn game. You can read the whole thing above at MGoBlog, but I'll break down a few of the more interesting personnell notes:

- As we guessed, all three quarterbacks come in as first string QB with the now-familiar "OR" between them. Denard is listed first and will almost certainly take the first snap against UConn, Tate is second, and Gardner is third. There won't be a redshirt for Gardner.
- Stephen Hopkins is listed fifth on the depth chart for running backs. Pegged as one of the big time freshman contributors, I expected Hopkins to be second string at worst. Interestingly, Mike Cox comes in for second-team duty, a pounding back to will probably eat up a lot of the short yardage carries I thought would go to Hopkins.
- Jeremy Gallon is buried on the slot receiver depth chart. Whether or not he ever contributes becomes a question.
- Mark Huyge over Taylor Lewan at starting left tackle. I expect Lewan to come close to overtaking Huyge by year's end.
- The wildly hyped Brandon Graham clone Jibreel Black comes in at second-team DE. This is a good sign. The D-line is almost certainly going to be Michigan's best and deepest unit (team-wide) this year.
- Will Campbell is buried on the NT depth chart, which is really surprising. I thought he looked great in the spring game and was going to be a big impact player this year. He may still be a little out of shape, but expect to see him on goal line stands.
- Mark Moundros is listed as "OR" in the MLB first-team depth chart alongside Obi Ezeh. I bet Moundros takes the first snap against UConn.
- Carvin Johnson shows up as the starter at Spur and Marvin Robinson is behind Kovacs at Bandit. I expect both of these freshmen to make a big impact and in the latter's case, for Robinson to be the starter ahead of Kovacs.
- James Rogers is your CB alongside J.T. Floyd. Ugh.