What to hope for: Gator Bowl edition

A series on Michigan's Gator Bowl opponent. You can find all preview content on the 2011 Gator Bowl page in the sidebar.

So as scouting time (and materials; if anyone knows where to find a good MSU/Arkansas torrent, let me know) begins to dwindle for the 2011 Gator Bowl and with the holidays rapidly approaching, it's probably a decent time to take a look at what to expect and what I hope to see against Mississippi State. This is going to be the more optimistic of the two: What to hope for.

Offense

• Health. Denard is rumored to be healthier than he's been all year, which makes sense with the layoff. But getting a healthy Mike Shaw and Vincent Smith could be huge for the offense. Also, just the general physical condition of the receivers and offensive line should be improved. If the team comes into this game completely healthy, we may see a return to the explosiveness that colored the early parts of the season.
• New plays. Toward the end of the season, it seemed like Michigan's offense started to stall, and I think part of that is because there were very few new formations and plays. We'd get a wrinkle here or there, like optioning off the playside defensive end, but even that went the way of the Dodo by year's end. Things I'd like to see: triple option, which we saw last year briefly; the traditional option pitch; optioning off the playside DE again; and more use and variation in the heavy set. Having new looks will keep MSU on their toes during the game and could produce a few big plays.
• Tate Forcier. I'm usually not one of the people calling to see Forcier put into the game, but given the disparity between Mississippi State's passing and rushing defensive production, Forcier may be the perfect change of pace QB to take advantage of a vulnerable defensive secondary. I don't want to see him get significant snaps, necessarily (like the back-and-forth against Purdue), but giving him an occasional drive might be beneficial.
• A cure for the dropsies. We all know that if Roy Roundtree drops a first down pass, the next play will be a Denard interception. Those are bad. But all of the drops have put Michigan behind the chains and in third and long situations. Keeping a rhythm will be crucial against a team whose primary defensive strategy is to stop said rhythm.
• Denard scrambles. Denard has been reticent to scramble this year for whatever reason, but did so a few times against Ohio State. The hope is that this trend continues and he starts to take off a little more frequently. The opportunities will be there: MSU blitzes their linebackers more often than not, so there should be plenty of room for him to run. Cam Newton did so to great effect in the Auburn/MSU game, so hopefully Michigan's coaches are teaching Denard to pull the ball and run when his receivers are all covered.
• No field goals. We're all in agreement? Good.

Defense

• Four-man defensive lines. As I've been chronicling the last two weeks, Mississippi State's offensive line is not great. They're repeatedly pushed into the backfield against four-man defensive fronts and have trouble in pass protection. Michigan's four-man line did a great job against Ohio State, at least for a little while, and OSU's offensive front is far superior to the Bulldogs'. The four-man line will also limit free-releasing offensive linemen. MSU's linemen are adept at getting downfield and facesmashing linebackers. If Michigan can hold the offensive line in check, this will leave Mouton, Demens, and the other linebackers free to make plays.
• Man coverage. I know, I know, I've been harping on this all year and it's had only mixed results. But, like Illinois, if ever there was a team to feel OK playing man coverage against, it's Mississippi State. Chris Relf is not the kind of quarterback who can make Hennebot throws to the outside or over the middle of the field. Challenging him to beat Michigan through the air is something they'll have to do if they want to stop the option running attack. Because eventually, Michigan is going to have to sneak safeties into the box to help out with the run.
• Zone blitzing and showing pre-snap looks. Michigan has gone to both of these occasionally throughout the year, and they usually work. It's not something you can do repeatedly with a young defense like Michigan's, but giving looks like this more often, especially in passing situations, could go a long way to stopping a fairly immature passer.
• Obi Ezeh at outside linebacker (a little). Ezeh has been pretty good moonlighting as an outside linebacker after Demens took over his starting gig. Ezeh has the strength to take on releasing guards and tight ends, as well as the athleticism to attack the backfield on option plays. I don't know if JB Fitzgerald is quite as well suited to stop a team like MSU.
• General improvement. Michigan has time to do nothing but practice and prepare. For a single game. At the end of the season. This means missed assignments should not happen. It also means that Michigan should be able to tackle. Hopefully this practice time gives players like Ray Vinopal and Courtney Avery, as well as the other freshman DBs, time to get their tackling and assignments in order. If the youngsters are competent in this game, Michigan might be able to field an only slightly below average defense.

This is all optimistic, I know, but it's also the first bowl game we've seen under Rich Rodriguez. He may have a whole host of offensive tricks up his sleeve that he unveils on an unsuspecting MSU defense. On the other side of the ball... Have you been saying your Rosaries?

Reading the linebacker

One thing that teams have started to do against Michigan in an attempt to stop the zone read is run their defensive end directly upfield and blitz a linebacker in the resulting gaps. We first saw this last week against Illinois. MGoBlog Picture Paged two different plays in which Illinois showed the defensive front and how Michigan adjusted to it. The first instance ended in a rush for zero gain. The second time, Michigan completely disregarded Illinois' defensive end and sent H-back Martell Webb to block the blitzing linebacker. It looked like this:

That's Michigan's triple overtime touchdown. The Illinois player who looks wildly out of position is their defensive end that ran directly upfield. Webb is about to block Illinois' blitzing linebacker. Touchdown.

Purdue deployed a similar tactic, but rather than blitzing the zone vacated by the defensive end, they blitzed up the middle of the formation, opening up the 19-yard Vincent Smith rush. The really interesting thing here is the read that Denard makes.

Michigan is in a three-wide set with Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw in the backfield. Purdue is in their base 4-3 with a linebacker over Roy Roundtree in the slot. Ryan Kerrigan is in a 9-tech defensive end position (outside the tight end, which in Michigan's formation isn't actually on the field).

Where are they now?: The 2010 offense

After seven games, Michigan sits at 5-2 with losses to Iowa and Michigan State that rank somewhere between disappointing to soul crushing. Denard Robinson went from Heisman front runner to footnote. And Michigan's defense is quickly proving to be even more inept than last year, although with the attrition and God-hates-us loss of Troy Woolfolk before the season, this could be expected. Now it's time to take a look at how the team is performing as a whole through the first seven games of the year and where that puts them for the rest of the season. First up, the offense:

Quarterbacks. Denard Robinson has planted himself firmly in the starting position with his other-worldly performance early in the year and his promising, albeit mistake prone games against Iowa and Michigan State. When Denard has been on his game, he's more or less single-handedly carried Michigan to victory. Unfortunately, he's been sporadic of late. When Denard has been out of the game, Tate Forcier has relieved him to resounding effect. Which is to say that Michigan finally has depth at the most important position on the field. Behind Forcier, we've seen brief, unimpressive appearances from true freshman Devin Gardner. Gardner now has some injury concerns and may be able to apply for a medical redshirt which would be best for all parties involved.

Denard still has a lot of work to do. His recent plague of interceptions in the last two games show his infancy in the passing game and will present problems going forward against defenses like Wisconsin and Ohio State. So while Denard has shown he can lead Michigan to extraordinary heights, he also presents the same problem that Michigan encountered last year: You live by the Focie... Shoelace, you die by the Shoelace.

Running backs. Michigan's running backs have been, in a word, unimpressive. This blog projected that Vincent Smith was going to come into the season as the starter, but an off-season ACL surgery put him behind the 8-ball. Mike Shaw has been the nominal starter and has fluctuated between mediocre and pretty good. Smith, meanwhile, hasn't shown much aside from showing a few flashes of Mike Hart-itude.

On the more positive side, Stephen Hopkins has come on in the last two games and shown that he's more than just a short yardage back. Hopkins provides the size that Michigan's other backs can't, but more impressively, he's shown unexpected quickness and good lateral movement. If Hopkins continues to improve the way he projects to, he could be Michigan's starter next year (alongside recent verbal commit Demetrius Hart, who looks to make an immediate impact on a lackluster backfield).

Wide receivers/Tight ends. This could look identical to the running backs section above. Michigan has a bunch of Big Ten average wide receivers that all get the job done. Roy Roundtree, as expected, has been the most targeted receiver of the year, as he was at the tail end of 2009. Darryl Stonum has also improved from his sporadic 2009 season and become a consistent threat. The most encouraging sign in recent weeks, however, has been the emergence of injury-plagued Junior Hemingway. After recovering from yet another injury, Hemingway has proven that he's the most consistent downfield threat for Michigan and might have the best hands on the team.

In less encouraging news, frequent workhorse Martavious Odoms broke his foot and will be out for most, if not all of the season. And Michigan's other receivers (Kelvin Grady, Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, Je'Ron Stokes) have made very little impact.

Michigan's tight ends have been largely removed from the passing game and have been used more in the H-back, linebacker-clubbing role. Kevin Koger and Martell Webb have both become some of Michigan's more effective downfield blockers and are vital in Michigan's short-yardage package. This isn't much of a let down as Michigan's offense has enough weapons without them, and they've both been performing exceedingly well in the running game.

Offensive line. Aside from Denard's early-season emergence as a Heisman hopeful, Michigan's offensive line has been the most encouraging part of the year. Though they've shown flaws in the last two weeks (primarily issues with stunting defensive linemen and some pass protection issues), the O-line has solidified themselves as possibly the best unit in the Big Ten. Redshirt freshman Taylor Lewan's emergence as a force at left tackle is a huge win for the future of the program. Meanwhile, the healthy return of David Molk has been a godsend (despite, ya know, his injury against Iowa). Steven Schilling was talked up by most media outlets before the season, but he has been thoroughly just-OK. Patrick Omameh has shown some pass-protection problems, but is unstoppable in the run game. And Perry Dorrestein has been unremarkable, meant in the most flattering way.

What does it mean for the future?
Michigan's offense is in line to be arguably the best in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country. With the health of Denard, however, goes the health of the offense. Despite Forcier's ability to move Michigan up and down the field against quality opponents, Denard is the electricity that makes it run.

Surrounding Denard is now a squad that not only has good starters but often equally as good backups. In two years, the offensive line went from one of the team's biggest liabilities to one of its biggest strengths. And at the other skill positions, Denard has playmakers that can do just enough to make this team truly dangerous. However, the lack of a game changer at either the wide receiver or running back position is going to hurt the team down the stretch.

Next year, Michigan is going to return almost everyone on the offense (the joys of having a young team) save a few offensive linemen whose backups are firmly entrenched and have shown promising upside. Long gone are the days of the Nick Sheridan/Steven Threet monster that made the future of the program looks hopeless. If nothing else, Rich Rodriguez has turned Michigan's offense into the relative juggernaut everyone expected when he arrived in Ann Arbor, and has the team poised to get stronger on that side of the ball in the coming years.

Up tomorrow: The 2010 defense

Notre Dame and snap counts

Ed. note: In lieu of a UMass preview, something that, unless something awful happens, should be useless, I wanted to do a little breakdown of Notre Dame's defensive line shift that was effective because of Michigan's predictable snap count. For a comprehensive UMass preview, visit MGoBlog.

I mentioned in Wednesday's Good Idea, Bad Idea post that Michigan is continuing to use a predictable snap count. When I was watching the game live, I saw Notre Dame shifting their defensive front right before Michigan snapped the ball, and finally found some video of comparable plays that shows that it may actually be more detrimental to the team's blocking schemes and production--aside from the obvious: allowing defensive teams to time blitzes--than originally thought. First up is a play in which Notre Dame uses the defensive front they originally showed:

Here, Michigan is set up with Denard in the shotgun and Michael Shaw to his right. They're using an H-back (Martell Webb) in this formation. Notre Dame is in the 4-3 base set that they had shown for most of the game. This will eventually be a passing play, but the important thing to watch is the blocking of the offensive line.

After the snap, Denard rolls to his right. David Molk and Patrick Omameh double team the strongside defensive tackle. Perry Dorrestein has one-on-one blocking against the strongside defensive end. Mark Huyge is charged with blocking the weakside defensive tackle and Steve Schilling is being given a free release into the second level. Martell Webb is supposed to get to the second level and block one of Notre Dame's corner backs as this will eventually be a counter screen pass to the weakside of the field. The weakside defensive end is unblocked.

Regardless of how this play ends, you can see that the offensive line is tied up with their appropriate defensive players. Huyge has passed the weakside defensive tackle to Schilling and is releasing to help block on the screen pass. Omameh and Molk are still driving back one of Notre Dame's defensive tackles. How the play ends is beside the point (it ends poorly, for the record). But you can see that there's order. All of the offensive linemen know where they're supposed to be and who they're supposed to block.

In the next play, Michigan is in the same formation and, at least initially, Notre Dame is in the same defensive formation. But because of Michigan's predictable snap count, Notre Dame was able to change their defensive front just before the snap and confuse the offensive line.

Here you can see that Michigan is in the same alignment they are above. Denard is in the shotgun with Michael Shaw to his right. Martell Webb is in as an H-back. Notre Dame is showing the same 4-3 defensive front. But because they're able to time Michigan's snap, the defensive line shifts from a 4-3 to a 3-4, changing all of the blocking schemes for the offensive line:

As you can see now, Notre Dame has shifted into a 3-4 front with the weakside defensive end becoming a stand-up linebacker, and the rest of the defensive line shifting over so that now they have a nose tackle and two defensive ends. Worse still is that all of this happens with Molk's head down, waiting to snap the ball; when he picks his head up, he'll be greeted with a completely different defensive front.

Because this is a different play than the above example (this is a designed QB run), there will be some differences in how it plays out. But the important thing to watch is the offensive line. If Notre Dame was in a 4-3 front still, Molk would've reach blocked the strongside defensive tackle with Omameh, Dorrestein would've seal blocked the defensive end, and Michael Shaw would block the playside linebacker. Instead, Molk goes for a reach block on the defensive end who has taken place of the defensive tackle. Omameh looks to double team the defensive end and Dorrestein, who was able to see the changing blocking schemes, also hits the defensive end and then releases to the second level.  Long story short, there are three linemen blocking a single defensive end. The nose tackle is being left unblocked by the front line and is now the responsibility of Webb, who is supposed to release to the second level to block one of the middle linebackers (about more which later).

The next thing you see is utter chaos. Molk and Omameh and still tied up double teaming the defensive end. Dorrestein and Schilling have released to the second level to block linebackers, and Huyge is tied up with the weakside defensive end. Shaw is locked up with the playside linebacker. The nose tackle is going completely unblocked and is able to, along with the playside middle linebacker, keep contain on Denard and force him back into the defensive help.

More chaos. Denard has no where to go and is being forced back into unblocked defenders. You can see the nose tackle in the middle of the scrum without a single Michigan player looking at him.

Denard has to cut the play back, and runs into the defensive end that Omameh and Molk were supposed to double team. The nose tackle still hasn't been touched.

This is admittedly a bit of a convoluted example, but the evidence is clear: when Notre Dame was switching defensive alignments just prior to the snap, the offensive line was confused, missed blocks, and didn't know its assignments. We've already seen Michigan State time Michigan's snap count to devastating effect, and if Michigan doesn't change their count, problems like this will continue to arise. Notre Dame has question marks on defense and was able to confuse Michigan's offensive line. Similar moves against Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Penn State could crush Michigan this season.

Running backs and reads

After the Notre Dame game, Rodriguez was asked a lot about the amount of touches Denard had and whether or not he wanted to see the running backs get involved more often and be more productive. His response was that Notre Dame was doing a lot of things that forced the ball into Denard's hands, which, huh? After watching the game over and over again, I found a few plays that the running backs were actually given the ball (it only happened 13 times all game) and saw that this may not have been the case.

Example 1: Notre Dame neutralizes zone read

Michigan is in the shotgun with Michael Shaw to Denard's left and Martell Webb set up as an H-back. This is a simple zone-read. On this play, Michigan will leave the weakside defensive end unblocked for Denard to read.

After the snap, you can see that Mark Huyge is headed straight for the weakside defensive tackle and leaving the defensive end unblocked. Martell Webb is charged with blocking the weakside linebacker who was shaded over the slot receiver. Denard has to read the weakside defensive end. If he crashes down on the handoff to Shaw, Denard is supposed to pull the ball himself. Notre Dame is also blitzing the middle and strongside linebackers in an effort to plug the middle of the offensive line.

As you can see here, the defensive end is staying high, forcing Denard to hand the ball off. But the Notre Dame linebackers have engaged with the offensive line before they were able to get upfield. If Michigan's linemen were given a free release to the second level, they're fast and smart enough to make the block. But instead, Notre Dame's linebackers were told to plug the holes at the point of attack and make Shaw slow down at the line and pick a hole. In doing so, it gives the weakside defensive end enough time to crash down for the tackle.

Shaw is now headed upfield but there aren't any clear openings because of the blitzing linebackers. Notre Dame's defensive end has now read the play and is crashing down on Shaw. If there were a clear hole at the line of scrimmage, Shaw blows by the defensive end and on to the second level. Unfortunately, there's not, and this happens:

Shaw gets wrapped up by the defensive end that's never supposed to tackle him if Denard makes the right read, which, for the record, he did. In this instance, Notre Dame effectively neutralized the play by blitzing their middle and strongside linebackers. But if they did this too often, a play action pass could very easily burn the Notre Dame defense as Michigan did earlier in the game. It's a chess game and Notre Dame won this time. Shaw doesn't get off without any blame in this game, though.

QB draw comparison: 2009 vs. 2010

As I mentioned in my UConn game column, one of Michigan's more effective plays on Saturday was the oft-lamented Totally Surprising Quarterback Draw that Michigan used Denard Robinson for last year to middling effect. The offensive line came in for a lot of praise on Saturday and you can look no further than this play to see why. I did a little digging and found comparable plays from 2009 and early in the game against UConn to see the differences. In short, they're drastic, and you can now see why Rodriguez wanted to run this play so much last year. Simply put, the running backs and offensive line just didn't have the play down last year to run it effectively. So without further ado:

Iowa 2009
This play was on Denard's touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Michigan is set up in a 4-receiver set (trips to Denard's left) with Brandon Minor in the backfield. Iowa is essentially playing a 4-3, cover-1 with one of their linebackers shaded over Michigan's slot receiver.

After the snap, the two offensive guards and center look to move Iowa's defensive tackles. The left tackle is supposed to seal Iowa's defensive end to the outside and Brandon Minor is the lead blocker charged with taking out the play-side linebacker. Denard is supposed to zip through that hole and take on the deep safety one-on-one in space. The receivers are all charged with getting downfield and blocking the men who are lined up over them. In theory, this is how the play should work.

It's difficult to see below (sorry, there are YouTube'd screen shots), but the left guard and center are still tied up on one of Iowa's defensive tackles. This becomes problematic, because the left guard is supposed to leave that block and get to the second level to take out the weak side linebacker. He never does. Meanwhile, Minor is entering the hole and about to take on the playside linebacker. Minor doesn't execute particularly well and Denard's hole becomes restricted.

Now, Minor has completely whiffed on his block, the left tackle's block is slipping, and Denard is running directly into the playside linebacker in the hole. He's about to be engulfed by three Iowa players who have all beaten their blocks. Doom lurks.

Doom. Denard is wrapped up by #43 (2nd round draft pick Pat Angerer) and headed to the ground despite a decent gain. Regardless, this is not how this play is designed to go.

So that was last year. Michigan's linemen were unable to hold up their blocks long enough, Brandon Minor whiffed terribly on his block, and Denard was wrapped up for a short 3-yard gain, not to mention being pounded by several different Iowa players. The same play against UConn is after the break.

The problem with assignment football

You may have remembered yesterday when I said,

Much like the first play, Purdue played a lot of man/assignment football that, if the coach is good enough and has enough of the playbook open, will eventually crush. Again, Michigan just isn't there yet in their development.

Well, I was right and wrong. I went back and looked at the different touchdown plays that Michigan ran on the day and saw something that was extremely encouraging, and a sign of what Rodriguez can bring to the table as a play caller.

(First though, on the Roundtree touchdown, Purdue called nearly the same corner blitz that they had against the triple option that caused the fumble. Only this time, they didn't get nearly as lucky with the offensive play call, and Roundtree ran free through the secondary before stiff arming a safety into oblivion. It's pretty obvious that Purdue came into the game with a high-risk/high-reward gameplan. Unfortunately, Michigan couldn't covert on enough of these plays to pull out the victory. That or the defense is so bad that regardless of how many times Michigan converted, the defense couldn't get a stand. But, like the beginning of the season, you saw the return of Michigan's long run game. You can expect to see this disappear again against Wisconsin and Ohio State who have superior talent and won't be playing roulette with their defense.)

Brandon Minor scored two long touchdowns on the day, both on nearly the exact same play call. One worked because of a great play by Minor and Purdue's willingness to allow Michigan backs get into space for six or seven yards. The second was in direct response to the way Purdue was playing and worked to perfection. Let's take a look at the first:

Michigan is in the 3-wide, 2-RB set that they played out of for most of the day. You may remember this same defensive and offensive looks form the triple option plays I talked about yesterday. Purdue here is in the 4-3 cover-2 formation they put on the field nearly every time Michigan pulled out this formation. Michael Shaw is to Forcier's left and Minor is to Forcier's right in the backfield.

On the snap, the offensive line blocks all of the down linemen. Shaw's responsibility is to the hit B-gap between the left guard and left tackle and block the closest linebacker. This will put Minor--if he hits the hole correctly--one-vs.-one with the safety, much like we saw in the triple option, because Purdue was playing strictly assignment football. As the safeties are playing man coverage on the separate RBs, the playside safety (bottom of the screen) is charged with hitting the hole Minor is in and bringing him down. Frankly, this is exactly how Rodriguez wants defenses to play against him: Get your playmakers in space against one defender and watch them go to work.

Shaw is running through the hole and about to engage with the playside linebacker. Minor gets a good block and gap to run through and is following Shaw. The playside WR (I believe that's Hemingway on the bottom of the screen) is charged with getting to his corner and sealing him to the outside.

Shaw is engaged with his linebacker, and Minor is breaking through the gap, and is one-vs.-one with a safety who he makes look a little silly.

Minor doesn't have the top end speed nor the shiftiness to just shake the safety. If he did, you can see that there's plenty of room to the sideline, and if Minor breaks to the edge with more speed, he probably gets there and doesn't need the acrobatics he shows here.

Laying prone on the ground is the safety that was just at eye level with Minor. He didn't truck him, but had enough moves and strength to get by him. From here, Minor actually cuts back across the field and dodges through the defenders who are scrambling to tackle Minor, but who never get there.

Long story short, assignment football is exactly what Rodriguez wants defenses to play. If Michigan's power back is able to dance around the one defender who's spying him and get to the endzone, putting Vincent Smith or Carlos Brown into similar space will be even more effective.

Even though this worked--and in large part because Purdue had been conceding that dive play the entire day; it turned into a touchdown or seven yards every time--Rodriguez saw how Purdue was playing and decided to change his blocking schemes to get an easier touchdown (after the jump).

The speed option: What went wrong?

So Michigan broke out a few new looks against Purdue: Denard saw one snap at RB and, more memorably, Michigan finally debuted the triple/speed option that has become synonymous with the spread option game. Unfortunately, it's memorable for the massive flub that gave Purdue the ball back on the 20 yard line after a Tate fumble. At first, I thought, "So this is why we haven't used this before." But after rewatching the game, it turned out to be a few really smart play calls by Purdue and the perfect storm of problems--from play calling to great defensive plays--that caused the Michigan fumble. Let's take a look at the first time Michigan tried this play. Alignment:

Michigan is in a 3-wide set with two RBs in the backfield. Purdue is playing  in a traditional 4-3 with two deep safeties. However, everyone on the field for Purdue is actually playing man-to-man coverage, with the two deep safeties charged with spying one of the two RBs in the backfield.

On the snap, the offensive line blocks left, leaving the weakside defensive end unblocked. This is where the problems start for Michigan. The weakside defensive end decides to keep contain on Forcier. Brian at MGoBlog mention that the hand off for the dive play--in this instance, the original handoff that, if it was available, Tate should have made to Michael Shaw because the DE is playing contain--is probably not an option for Forcier yet. In any case, Purdue is conceding the dive play because the backside corner (bottom left of the screen) actually has man coverage on the dive play.

Forcier pulls the ball even though the weakside defensive end is keeping contain. In any other instance, Forcier should have handed the ball off. He probably doesn't have this option yet. What's most interesting is the playside safety (top of the screen) is starting to crash down on Minor, who is his man-to-man assignment.

It's a little hard to see here, but if Forcier had handed the ball of for the dive play (or been allowed to), Michael Shaw has a seam that would net five yards or so and put him one-on-one against the safety. Instead, Tate is forced to pitch the ball to Minor on the option because the playside DE is keeping contain. The safety on the top of the screen can see this happening and is now starting to go directly at Minor, who he will eventually hit four yards in the backfield.

Minor is in the act of catching the ball and is 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The safety spying Minor is 4 yards from the line of scrimmage. The math doesn't work out for Michigan and this happens:

As you can see, If Forcier had kept the ball, he would've been in trouble, and yet Minor is surrounded by three players and about to be brought down in the backfield. This is because Purdue's DE kept contain and Forcier still pulled the ball. This is what happens when someone misses a read--or isn't given that read, whatever the case may be.

I have no idea how Purdue planned for this play, but they were undeniably ready for it, even though Michigan hadn't run it all year. It is my guess, however, that this kind of assignment football is how Roundtree got open on his TD pass and Minor broke so many big runs. I'll have to go back and see, but if Shaw gets the handoff here and breaks one tackle against the safety spying him, he's got nothing but the endzone in front of him. I'll let you know what I find later in the week, but this is purely assignment football and what every coach talks about when they play the spread. If Forcier wasn't a true freshmen, Rodriguez would likely have a devastating counter to this play. Michigan isn't there yet.

In a while, I'll post what happened the second time Michigan tried this play--the one that ended with a crushing fumble to the Michigan 20 yard line. Long story short, Purdue got pretty lucky with their play call and their cornerback made a phenomenal play. What's both encouraging and bothersome is that Michigan wasn't giving the play away with the presnap alignment, as they ran it a number of times throughout the game; I specifically checked for this. This means that Rodriguez's play calling has become stagnant enough that teams are getting the upper hand--for example, it looks like on most 2nd and long plays, Purdue blitzed a linebacker or corner in order to stop a Tate roll out.

Delaware State Preview

No, this is not Michigan

Michigan is coming off of back-to-back losses to Big Ten opponents. Tate Forcier is concussed and has a shoulder injury. Carlos Brown also suffered a concussion recently. And the team seems to be reeling after two soul-crushing, close defeats.

So what is there to say about this week's opponent? Delaware State is a 1-3 1-AA opponent that lost to a school named Bethune-Cookman by a score of 9-7. Their kicker is 1 for 6 kicking field goals. They rank 100th (!!!) in total offense amongst FCS teams, averaging 265 yards per game and only scoring 8 TDs in their four games. Their defense? 92nd amongst FCS teams, allowing 392 yards per game. They do, however, only allow a little over 15 points per game, which is good for 14th among FCS teams.

Let's put it this way: Delaware State is not Appalachian State. In fact, if all goes as planned on Saturday, Delaware State jumps from 1-3 to 1-5, after only having played one game, because they forfeitted a conference game for the chance to play against Michigan in the Big House (read: $$$$$).

Quarterback Anthony Glaud is averaging 144.5 yards-per-game, completing 57.5% of his passes, and has a 2/2 TD/INT ratio. Their run game is in trouble as one of their top two backs, Jason Randall, will miss at  two to three weeks with a leg injury. Needless to say, this Delaware State team is... not a threat.

So that leads us to Michigan, who will likely try to play as many young players as long as possible. Yesterday I went in depth about the redshirt status of Justin Turner and talked about the secondary in general. I had completely forgotten, however, about Vlad Emilien, a four-star safety recruit out of Florida who we've also yet to see take the field. Emilien is exactly who you'd want to see on the field against Delaware State, and someone you'd hope could quickly replace walk-on Jordan Kovacs (who's done an admirable job in his time on the field) in the secondary.

IMO, it's more likely to see Emilien on the field tomorrow than Turner if for no other reason than we need bodies that have played safety before to be ready to play. With Woolfolk's move to cornerback, Michigan officially has two safeties who have seen playing time this year. Regardless of Cissoko's status or the general talent deficiencies of JT Floyd, there are still able bodies that can be put in at the corner position. And with Woolfolk proving in his first game to be an above-average corner, Turner now has more competition at the position. Not that I necessary expect either Turner or Emilien to play, but the latter is far more crucial to the immediate success of the defense than Turner.

As for the rest, expect to see lots of Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, and Denard Robinson. Also expect to see Will Campbell get a lot of time in this game, who Brian Cook has been asserting had a truly awful day against Iowa in limited time--I didn't notice. The people I'm interested to see on the field are Kelvin Grady and Martell Webb, though. In Rodriguez's last press conference, he, in so many words, said that Grady had hit a freshman wall but will be incorporated more into the offense in the future. I want to see Grady on the field and see what he can do. Because for all of the OMGGRADY! coming out of spring and fall camp, he's been mostly unremarkable, notching eight catches and one rush for a total of 65 yards, plus a whole spattering of dropped balls. Webb, meanwhile, has seen his playing time significantly diminished when in back-to-back games, he dropped balls that hit him squarely in the numbers. I assume Rodriguez is going to want to see what he's got in Webb and have him split reps with Koger who has been masterful.

Prediction: Michigan runs away with this early on the strength of their ground game and a few nice passes to painfully open receivers by Tate. The defense looks stout and aggressive, and Delaware State manages little over 2 YPC, if that. Denard is brought in when Michigan has a two touchdown lead and has the entire playbook that Tate has. We see less quarterback draws from him this time around and he puts the ball in the air (to pretty good effect) more than we've ever seen him before. Michigan 42-6

Official: No Brown for Iowa

As was speculated here and other places, Carlos Brown won't play against Iowa because of a concussion. He didn't even make the trip. (These and other tidbits about can be heard from Rodriguez in this video that MGoBlue just posted.) As I said earlier, I expect Michael Shaw to get a lot of playtime tomorrow with the absence of Brown because, frankly, Michigan isn't going to be doing much running up the middle, and getting the edge is not something Brandon Minor excels in. Minor will start, but expect to see Michael Shaw in the game during the first series--as long as Michigan doesn't go three and out.

Brown's injury and what it means for Iowa

Word out of practice this week is that Carlos Brown, Michigan's leading rusher, is a little dinged up--something with his knees apparently (?). This, though seemingly not that bad coupled with Brandon Minor's healthiest week since spring camp, is actually a really big deal for Michigan's game plan and chances against an Iowa team that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown in the last 33 quarters.

It's not that Minor isn't a capable back, or that he's taken a marked step back this year after his breakout, crushing performance last season. It's his style of play against an Iowa defensive front that thrives against pounding, brutebacks the likes of Minor. Brown seemed to have cured his fumbling woes this year and has had a good season by utilizing his 5-star speed and burning linebackers and safeties for big gains. Minor, well, wrecks fools:



That running works against Indiana. It won't work against an Iowa team that is stronger, deeper, and bigger.

Brown's injury will open things up for some younger players on the offense, and fortunately, Michigan has a whole mess of sparkplug options. You should expect to see a fair amount of carries for Michael Shaw whose proven himself the #3 back behind Minor and Brown. If Shaw can't get anything going (and this is mostly assuming that Minor is held to 3-4 YPC), expect to see bite-sized Vincent Smith get a few touches.

The most interesting bit of information comes by way of The Michigan Daily and will have most Michigan fans drooling:

In the last rotation, Forcier ran the play at quarterback again, but with Robinson at running back. Though it wasn’t practiced during the first part of practice, the play could potentially give the opportunity for Robinson to pass the ball to a receiver off the pitch. Robinson’s speed — coupled with Forcier’s quick success and the fact that the country’s No. 1 quarterback recruit, Devin Gardner, is poised to join the Wolverines next season — has constantly raised questions of if Robinson may eventually move to slot receiver or running back. But this season, both he and Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez have continued to maintain that Robinson is solely a quarterback.

This was a fairly obvious progression. We knew it was going to get here eventually, even if Rodriguez had spent half of his time at press conferences saying that Robinson was definitively a quarterback. This doesn't mean that he's not a QB anymore, but it does open up a huge section of the playbook that Rodriguez hasn't even been able to think about using since he's been here. I expect to see this formation maybe once or twice. More likely, you'll see a 65/25 split between Minor and Shaw with a little bit of Smith and Brown sprinkled in. That is, unless Brown is healthier than he has been this week. Fortunately, with Michigan's running back situation, there's no need to hurry anyone back.

Update: MGoBlog has reliable sources. Curses. I should buy some of those. Brown likely out because of a concussion in practice. Also predicts a lot of Michael Shaw.