What to hope for: Gator Bowl edition

A series on Michigan's Gator Bowl opponent. You can find all preview content on the 2011 Gator Bowl page in the sidebar.

So as scouting time (and materials; if anyone knows where to find a good MSU/Arkansas torrent, let me know) begins to dwindle for the 2011 Gator Bowl and with the holidays rapidly approaching, it's probably a decent time to take a look at what to expect and what I hope to see against Mississippi State. This is going to be the more optimistic of the two: What to hope for.

Offense

• Health. Denard is rumored to be healthier than he's been all year, which makes sense with the layoff. But getting a healthy Mike Shaw and Vincent Smith could be huge for the offense. Also, just the general physical condition of the receivers and offensive line should be improved. If the team comes into this game completely healthy, we may see a return to the explosiveness that colored the early parts of the season.
• New plays. Toward the end of the season, it seemed like Michigan's offense started to stall, and I think part of that is because there were very few new formations and plays. We'd get a wrinkle here or there, like optioning off the playside defensive end, but even that went the way of the Dodo by year's end. Things I'd like to see: triple option, which we saw last year briefly; the traditional option pitch; optioning off the playside DE again; and more use and variation in the heavy set. Having new looks will keep MSU on their toes during the game and could produce a few big plays.
• Tate Forcier. I'm usually not one of the people calling to see Forcier put into the game, but given the disparity between Mississippi State's passing and rushing defensive production, Forcier may be the perfect change of pace QB to take advantage of a vulnerable defensive secondary. I don't want to see him get significant snaps, necessarily (like the back-and-forth against Purdue), but giving him an occasional drive might be beneficial.
• A cure for the dropsies. We all know that if Roy Roundtree drops a first down pass, the next play will be a Denard interception. Those are bad. But all of the drops have put Michigan behind the chains and in third and long situations. Keeping a rhythm will be crucial against a team whose primary defensive strategy is to stop said rhythm.
• Denard scrambles. Denard has been reticent to scramble this year for whatever reason, but did so a few times against Ohio State. The hope is that this trend continues and he starts to take off a little more frequently. The opportunities will be there: MSU blitzes their linebackers more often than not, so there should be plenty of room for him to run. Cam Newton did so to great effect in the Auburn/MSU game, so hopefully Michigan's coaches are teaching Denard to pull the ball and run when his receivers are all covered.
• No field goals. We're all in agreement? Good.

Defense

• Four-man defensive lines. As I've been chronicling the last two weeks, Mississippi State's offensive line is not great. They're repeatedly pushed into the backfield against four-man defensive fronts and have trouble in pass protection. Michigan's four-man line did a great job against Ohio State, at least for a little while, and OSU's offensive front is far superior to the Bulldogs'. The four-man line will also limit free-releasing offensive linemen. MSU's linemen are adept at getting downfield and facesmashing linebackers. If Michigan can hold the offensive line in check, this will leave Mouton, Demens, and the other linebackers free to make plays.
• Man coverage. I know, I know, I've been harping on this all year and it's had only mixed results. But, like Illinois, if ever there was a team to feel OK playing man coverage against, it's Mississippi State. Chris Relf is not the kind of quarterback who can make Hennebot throws to the outside or over the middle of the field. Challenging him to beat Michigan through the air is something they'll have to do if they want to stop the option running attack. Because eventually, Michigan is going to have to sneak safeties into the box to help out with the run.
• Zone blitzing and showing pre-snap looks. Michigan has gone to both of these occasionally throughout the year, and they usually work. It's not something you can do repeatedly with a young defense like Michigan's, but giving looks like this more often, especially in passing situations, could go a long way to stopping a fairly immature passer.
• Obi Ezeh at outside linebacker (a little). Ezeh has been pretty good moonlighting as an outside linebacker after Demens took over his starting gig. Ezeh has the strength to take on releasing guards and tight ends, as well as the athleticism to attack the backfield on option plays. I don't know if JB Fitzgerald is quite as well suited to stop a team like MSU.
• General improvement. Michigan has time to do nothing but practice and prepare. For a single game. At the end of the season. This means missed assignments should not happen. It also means that Michigan should be able to tackle. Hopefully this practice time gives players like Ray Vinopal and Courtney Avery, as well as the other freshman DBs, time to get their tackling and assignments in order. If the youngsters are competent in this game, Michigan might be able to field an only slightly below average defense.

This is all optimistic, I know, but it's also the first bowl game we've seen under Rich Rodriguez. He may have a whole host of offensive tricks up his sleeve that he unveils on an unsuspecting MSU defense. On the other side of the ball... Have you been saying your Rosaries?

Swallowing Kenny Demens addition

Today, MGoBlog Picture Paged a Wisconsin run demonstrating a flaw in the Michigan defensive formation:

by lining up his MLB just behind his nose tackle he dooms that guy to take one step to the playside, whereupon he is eaten by a guard who has no one lined up over him. Even if Michigan successfully plugs that hole they are crazy vulnerable to cutbacks and counters.

I don't think this is exactly right. The problem with the play is not necessarily that Demens is too close to the line of scrimmage, rather that Michigan's defensive numbers and zone coverage dictated not only a decent gain but a tackle by the safety.

MGoBlog's complaint is that Kenny Demens is lined up directly over Mike Martin and only two yards off the line of scrimmage. The bigger problem, however, is that Michigan is playing cover-3. Like Chris Brown of Smart Football likes to say, "football begins as arithmetic" (with depressing Michigan/Indiana tie-in!). Before this play even starts, Michigan is committing three deep safeties to an I-formation with two receivers--Courtney Avery, on the weakside of the play, is rolled down toward the line of scrimmage but because there are no receivers on his side of the field. Though it might look like more, Michigan is committing only six defenders to the box against seven Wisconsin blockers and a tailback. Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs are outside the box and covering flat zones (sort of, about which more later).

Important to note: on the strongside of play and inside the box, Michigan has four defenders (Martin, Roh, Ezeh, and Demens) versus four blockers (center, right guard, right tackle, and the fullback). The numbers are decidedly in Wisconsin's favor.

After the snap, the center and left guard double team Martin. The right guard is given a free release where Demens and Ezeh are attacking. Van Bergen is being double teamed by the left tackle and tight end. He gets sealed to the outside but understandably so. He has no shot here. There are no problems with Michigan's defense yet, but Jordan Kovacs standing with his hands on his knees becomes a huge problem in a minute.

Demens and Ezeh are running to the point of attack. The right guard, who was given a free release will be hit by Demens a yard past the line of scrimmage and Ezeh will attack the fullback.

This is where my understanding of this play varies from MGoBlog's. Brian argues that, were Demens further off the line of scrimmage, somehow, the offensive guard who was given a free release wouldn't find him or would miss his block. Frankly, that's wishful thinking. Demens plugging the line at the point of attack by taking on the offensive guard is actually the best possible scenario. Ezeh will be charged with stuffing the fullback, which will necessitate either a cutback or a bounceout. Structurally, Michigan is still sound.

The bigger issue with this play is that Michigan is playing zone coverage. Mouton and Kovacs are still frozen in place because they have to account for the pass. In Mouton's case, this is a function playing zone coverage and being assigned to the middle of the field. Kovacs, however, should be ripping down the line of scrimmage behind the offensive line right now. He can do this because Wisconsin didn't put any receivers on the weak side of the field allowing Avery to roll down and cover the overhang. So when the left guard releases his double team on Martin and starts to head upfield for Mouton...

...Kovacs needs to be rushing into the backfield to make the play on a cutback that has been forced by Ezeh and Demens stuffing the Wisconsin blockers at the line of scrimmage. Instead, Mouton has to take on an offensive guard, leaving the middle of the field open for Wisconsin:

Now look at Kovacs and Avery. What is Kovacs doing here? He's unblocked, isn't defending the overhang (that's Avery's job), and watching the play move away from him. If Kovacs had started attacking the backfield when he should have, this would've been a two yard loss. Michigan's defense is still sound if he misses: even a miss would necessitate a cut to where the play eventually goes, and Avery has overhang coverage. I think Kovacs just flat missed his assignment here and is frozen because he thinks he has a responsibility in the passing game (he doesn't as there are no weakside receivers and Avery has coverage on the weakside TE should he release).

Kovacs begins to attack the backside of the play when the ball is already beyond the line of scrimmage. Mouton has been successfully blocked. Avery, who was in overhang coverage is late getting back to the point of attack, which is OK because he needs to be behind the ball. And eventually Ray Vinopal will come downhill from the free safety spot to make the tackle.

The point of this is that it's not the alignment that's the problem. Moving Demens further from the line of scrimmage does not somehow remedy the fact that Wisconsin has a decided numbers advantage. Nor does it mean that he'll be able to read and react to a play that's designed specifically to flatten him. (What more could Demens do on this play from four yards deeper? Expecting him to completely shed a free-releasing offensive lineman is unrealistic and assumes that Michigan's players are supermen.) For this play to work, Wisconsin actually only had to block six of Michigan's defenders: Roh, Martin, and Van Bergen (all on the line), and Ezeh, Demens, and Mouton (the linebackers). Michigan essentially committed five players to the pass (the three deep safeties, along with Kovacs and Gordon at the Spur/Bandit positions). All of this despite the fact that Wisconsin had seven blockers.

This could have been remedied had Kovacs realized the shift in coverage when Wisconsin didn't put a receiver on his side of the field. But he failed to acknowledge it and instead completely took himself out of the play, acting as a redundancy overhang defender. So while I agree that this is probably an "incoherent defense", it's not the alignment of the linebackers on this play that causes the problem. Michigan is unwilling to test man coverage and, because of that, find themselves spread out and susceptible to the rush.

Where are they now?: The 2010 defense

Previously: The 2010 offense

Though Michigan's offense has been nigh unstoppable save for their own self-inflicted wounds, Michigan's defense is just as bad as everyone expected it to be before the season. When most of your lineup is made up of true/redshirt freshmen and walk-ons, you're bound not to be very good. But at times this season, it looks like the defense has regressed from the already unthinkably bad performance they turned in last year. Let's just get this over with:

Defensive line. The best unit on Michigan's defense has unquestionably been the defensive line, thanks in no small part to Hulk machine Mike Martin. Martin is proving himself to be one of the best nose tackles in the country and is living up to every bit of hype he received heading into the season. Without him, Michigan's defense crumbles, something we've seen with his recent time on the sidelines nursing an injury. Flanking Martin are a pair of league average defensive ends in Ryan Van Bergen and and Greg Banks. Van Bergen has been the more effective of the two, but he hasn't been particularly noteworthy. This unit is good solely because of Martin. In fact, the defense is only really functional because of Martin.

The defensive line backups have proven themselves worth little more than to give the starters a breather. A serious lack of production means the continued health of the starters is critical. If Martin or Van Bergen go down for any length of time, the defense will struggle even worse than they have already. The only real bright spot is true freshman Jibreel Black, who has been deployed primarily as a pass rusher (and occasionally in a stand up linebacker role). Black won't be a real impact player this year, but he could very likely turn into one next year. 

Linebackers. MGoBlog has led a fairly extensive crusade against the linebackers for the last three years and for good reason: they're not very good. Obi Ezeh has officially been supplanted by Kenny Demens as the starting middle linebacker. Ezeh has been flamboyantly bad to anyone who watches the games, and Demens provided a much-needed lift from that position--although I still feel he was a bit shakier in pass coverage than MGoBlog.

Jonas Mouton has been the most productive linebacker this year, recording a number of interceptions on nice zone drops. However, he's shown flaws in run defense and is best described as inconsistent. On the other side of Ezeh is converted linebacker/defensive end Craig Roh. Roh's skillset is not quite as suited for linebacker as the coaches want to believe. His coverage skills are sub-optimal and attacking the line of scrimmage from the linebacker position has been underwhelming. Fortunately, he has the build to also drop down into a defensive end position, which he has been deployed as more frequently in the last two weeks. With his success as a pass rusher in his freshman year, the move to linebacker (especially as we see how he struggles in pass coverage) was a peculiar one.

The other two hybrid linebacker roles (a linebacker/safety position) have been played by Jordan Kovacs on one side, and a mix of Thomas Gordon and true freshman Carvin Johnson on the other. Kovacs, who this blog was firmly against last year, has established himself as a non-liability--the biggest compliment I'm comfortable giving him. Kovacs has been primarily assigned to linebackers in pass coverage on underneath routes, which he has done a good job defending. On the rare occasion that a team sends a linebacker deep on him, however, he's been thoroughly beaten. But Kovacs makes smart plays and is good in run support. He is not a liability anymore.

On the other side is the Carvin Johnson/Thomas Gordon platoon. Johnson was the started at the beginning of the season before an injury sidelined him and opened the door for Gordon. But Johnson has returned and reclaimed the starting role. Neither of these players have excelled. They've both been responsible for some blown coverage, and both have been pancaked on various running plays. That said, they've also shown flashes of being able to cover receivers in man coverage, increasing the flexibility of the defense. Since neither have separated themselves as the clear starter, I expect we'll see Johnson as the starter for the rest of the season, barring injury.

Secondary. I mean, what do you want me to say that you don't already know? The transfers of Vlad Emilien and Justin Turner, and the unfortunate loss of Troy Woolfolk in a non-contact injury have left this position group wholly devoid of talent. JT Floyd is your starting cornerback alongside James Rogers. While Floyd has shown flashes of functionality, the fact that Rogers is still on the field is a referendum against the freshman cornerbacks that Michigan recruited this year, primarily the highly rated Cullen Christian.

Speaking of the freshmen corners, Courtney Avery has seen the most time off the bench, coming in on the nickel package and to relieve Rogers. Avery has shown a tendency to vacate his zone in pass coverage, but I think he's taken a little too much heat for his play. I'm encouraged by his performances and think he'll shape out to be a quality contributor next year when Michigan gets Troy Woolfolk back and Floyd continues to progress as a starter. The other corners are the aforementioned Christian and fellow true freshman Terrence Talbott. Christian has shown a lot of technique issues in pass coverage, and Talbott has been almost completely non-existent in his playing time, which is just about the best thing you can say about a defensive back, especially on Michigan's roster.

Michigan's safety position has been the same barren wasteland that it was last year. The starter and seemingly only viable open has been wide receiver position switch Cam Gordon who has shown an inability to read passing plays, tackle, or cover receivers/tight ends. Gordon is the biggest liability in the defense, much like Kovacs last year. Michigan hasn't given up quite as many huge passing touchdowns as they did last year, but that's because the coaches are terrified of them and willing to give up 10-yard hitch routes to anyone who can complete a pass. Our only hope is that true freshman Ray Vinopal or Marvin Robinson find a way to supplant Gordon and prove to be remarkably better at all the things Gordon isn't any good at.

What does it mean for the future?
For the rest of 2010, it means Michigan's defense is not going to get any better. This is a bad defense with bad defensive players. But in the next few years, there may be hope. Michigan starts countless freshman and has only freshmen to back them up. If some of these players can live up to or out grow their modest recruiting hype, Michigan's defense could turn into something resembling functional. But you know all of that. For now, when Michigan's defense is on the field, your best bet is to pray for glaring offensive mistakes.

Why Michigan struggles against rollouts

After the UMass game, I got on Greg Robinson's case because he more or less allowed UMass run a quarterback rollout pass at will on the defense. What I couldn't understand was a) why he didn't ever change his scheme to counter the play and b) why Michigan's defenders couldn't figure it out on their own; a basic zone coverage scheme is not susceptible to a rollout on every play, you'd imagine. Bowling Green obviously watched the UMass film and saw the same thing, going to a rollout a number of times in the game. Below is one example of what usually goes wrong, and something that hopefully they can fix. (For the record, the man coverage nickel package that I'm oh-so happy with will mitigate a lot of these issues if it's called at the right time.)

Michigan is in their typical 3-3-5 stack against a trips look for Bowling Green. Michigan is going to rush their three down linemen as well as Craig Roh from his linebacker spot (the stand up defender on the line of scrimmage). They will drop the other seven players into zone coverage. Bowling Green has called a designed roll out to the strong side of the field.

After the snap, you can see the Michigan rush as well as the zone coverage. Michigan will drop into a cover-2 look here with JT Floyd playing the deep weakside of the field and James Rogers (top of the screen) playing the deep strongside of the field. The linebackers, Cam Gordon, and Jordan Kovacs will all drop into underneath zones.

This is where the trouble starts on the play. Highlighted in red is James Rogers whose job it is not to get beaten deep. With three Bowling Green defenders streaking downfield (the third receiver is partially cut off at the top of the screen), Rogers starts heading deep. Highlighted in blue is Cameron Gordon. As the widest underneath defender, it's Gordon's job to defend the boundary. Kevin Leach is the playside linebacker and is between Bowling Green's two inside receivers. Ezeh is trying to get over to the playside of the field to defend. Since he's not there yet, Michigan essentially has two defenders (Gordon and Leach) against three receivers.

With Rogers deep and Ezeh still getting over to that side of the field, Gordon and Leach are covering the two inside receivers. The third receiver, whose foot is highlighted in red at the top of the screen, has recognized Michigan's coverage and is going to sit down in a vacated zone seven yards from the line of scrimmage. I'm not entirely sure who's at fault here: Ezeh for not getting over soon enough, forcing Leach to carry the inside receiver through his zone, or Gordon for not playing wide enough of a zone to attack the outside receiver. Either way, he's wide open. Bowling Green's quaterback sees it and throws:

The ball is highlighted in red and is headed toward the outside receiver who has about 10 yards of space between he and Gordon. Rogers still has coverage over the top, so that's definitely not his responsibility. Michigan has three players (Gordon, Leach, and Ezeh) within five yards of one another when the ball is released.

When the receiver catches the ball, Gordon is still three to five yards away from him. Leach and Ezeh are in pursuit but it feels like Gordon was out of position on this play. Otherwise, Ezeh and Leach would be further behind him. Gordon eventually makes the tackle but only after an easy seven yards for Bowling Green.

As I said above, I don't really know whose at fault here. It's definitely not Rogers who was playing the deep half of the field. I'm inclined to say it was Gordon's fault for not covering the boundary, but then again, Ezeh's late rotation (not entirely his fault, he got off the snap quickly and just had a lot of ground to cover) seemed to necessitate Leach covering the inside receiver through his zone and Gordon shading over to the middle receiver. UMass torched Michigan on this same play repeatedly and I have no doubt that other teams will as well. And as Michigan faces more talented quarterbacks through the Big Ten schedule, this looks to be the team's Achilles' heel.

The nickel package that Greg Robinson debuted in the Bowling Green game is one way to remedy this problem. Without gaping holes in the zone coverage, Bowling Green doesn't get this easy completion. Having man coverage here probably necessitates three vertical routes with two over-the-top defenders in Floyd and Rogers. I'd prefer this over pitch-and-catch completions, but Robinson is probably worried about the deep ball more. This is bend don't break football.

Ezeh vs. Kovacs: Who's responsible?

Obi Ezeh has come in for his fair share of criticism of late, no where more prominent than in MGoBlog's extensive Upon Further Review posts. Brian recently posted the UConn defensive UFR and once again, Ezeh grades out poorly. Brian highlights one play in particular in which Ezeh gets blocked off by a pulling guard and the running back jets through the gap for an 8-yard gain. The play in question:

How are the initial returns on the GERG Linebacker Magic theory? Good, but not great. It's not much of a surprise when you juuuust barely beat out a walk-on for your job but Obi Ezeh's progress has been incremental at best. He did make a nice play on the last defensive play charted up there but there was an awful lot of Ezeh getting shoved around like a rag doll and even one instance of those horrible times last year when he'd go into a pass drop on a run play. I mean:

In this play, UConn is running power, off tackle (running between your right tackle and right guard, with your left guard pulling across the line and acting as a lead blocker). But despite Ezeh not actually making the tackle, I don't see any way that the responsibility on this play doesn't fall squarely on the shoulders of Jordan Kovacs.

Regular readers of this blog will note that I don't like Kovacs on the field. (Jordan Kovacs is to me, what Obi Ezeh is to Brian Cook at MGoBlog.) In the above play, Kovacs takes a 6-yard drop into pass coverage as the ball is snapped and doesn't even recognize the play as a run until UConn running back Jordan Todman is past the line of scrimmage. In fact, he's so far out of position that the weakside safety Cam Gordon has to come across the field to make the play. Let's break it down:

Michigan is lined up with a three-man front and will be bringing a blitz from the weak side of the play. Ezeh is playing middle linebacker and Jonas Mouton is the playside linebacker. On the near hash at the 21-yard line is Jordan Kovacs. Cam Gordon is lined up on the far hash and is playing as deep as Kovacs.

At the snap, Kovacs immediately starts to drop back into pass coverage and won't stop for a while, as we'll see. Martin is being double teamed by UConn's center and right guard. The UConn left guard has started to pull across the formation to act as the lead blocker in charge of hitting Ezeh. The play side slot receiver is going to block Mouton. Greg Banks (the playside defensive end) is being sealed to the outside by UConn's right tackle.

Here, you can see that Kovacs is still backpedaling, now 4 yards deeper than he was pre-snap. Mouton is being hit by the playside slot receiver. UConn's left guard has now pulled across the formation and is in perfect position to block Ezeh. Ezeh's job here is to plug the hole that Todman is supposed to run through. He does this by hitting that pulling guard. It's then Kovacs' job to come into the play and make the tackle. Unfortunately, Kovacs isn't done backpedaling yet.

Kovacs, after taking a 5-yard drop, now realizes that this is a running play and has started to get into the game. But he's so far off the line of scrimmage that there's almost no way this play doesn't go for decent yardage. Ezeh is attacking the play. He's making contact with both the pulling left guard and Todman, but ends up getting blocked to the ground by the guard. Todman is about to slip past him into the middle of the field that has been completely vacated by Kovacs who took far too long to diagnose the play as a run.

The UConn offensive line has now done their job. The linebackers have been taken out and Todman is releasing to the next level. Kovacs is still 8 yards away from Todman without any momentum. He's a sitting duck. (Have you ever tried to stop someone running full speed at you when you are flat footed?) In fact, if it weren't for the referee standing right in the middle of the play (forcing Todman to cut to his left), I'd venture that this play has about a 50/50 chance of going for a touchdown.

But Todman has to cut around the referee who's trying desperately not to be in everyone's way, and Cam Gordon has come from across the field to make a nice wrap up tackle.

I'm usually with Brian that Ezeh makes the wrong read and generally finds himself on the wrong side of should be no-yardage plays, but this one falls squarely on this blog's goat. If Kovacs diagnoses this play quicker or doesn't drop 5 yards into coverage to compensate for his lack of elite-level speed, this is probably a two-yard gain. Instead, Todman is given an 8-yard cushion to play around with and rumbles his way for as many yards.

Brian's argument against Ezeh here is that he needs to funnel Todman to the outside, which I think is patently wrong. If Ezeh pushes Todman outside by taking a different angle on the block, UConn has two blockers against two Michigan defenders. The numbers are squarely in favor of UConn here, and the play eventually becomes a foot race between Kovacs (coming from the middle of the field) and Todman. All of Ezeh's help in this play (his weak-side blitzers, linebackers, and other safeties) are to the middle of the field. Simply because Mouton was able to get off of his block quickly in this instance does not mean that's where Ezeh was supposed to force the play.

2010 Depth Chart thoughts

You're all probably well aware that an unofficial depth chart for Michigan has been released for the UConn game. You can read the whole thing above at MGoBlog, but I'll break down a few of the more interesting personnell notes:

- As we guessed, all three quarterbacks come in as first string QB with the now-familiar "OR" between them. Denard is listed first and will almost certainly take the first snap against UConn, Tate is second, and Gardner is third. There won't be a redshirt for Gardner.
- Stephen Hopkins is listed fifth on the depth chart for running backs. Pegged as one of the big time freshman contributors, I expected Hopkins to be second string at worst. Interestingly, Mike Cox comes in for second-team duty, a pounding back to will probably eat up a lot of the short yardage carries I thought would go to Hopkins.
- Jeremy Gallon is buried on the slot receiver depth chart. Whether or not he ever contributes becomes a question.
- Mark Huyge over Taylor Lewan at starting left tackle. I expect Lewan to come close to overtaking Huyge by year's end.
- The wildly hyped Brandon Graham clone Jibreel Black comes in at second-team DE. This is a good sign. The D-line is almost certainly going to be Michigan's best and deepest unit (team-wide) this year.
- Will Campbell is buried on the NT depth chart, which is really surprising. I thought he looked great in the spring game and was going to be a big impact player this year. He may still be a little out of shape, but expect to see him on goal line stands.
- Mark Moundros is listed as "OR" in the MLB first-team depth chart alongside Obi Ezeh. I bet Moundros takes the first snap against UConn.
- Carvin Johnson shows up as the starter at Spur and Marvin Robinson is behind Kovacs at Bandit. I expect both of these freshmen to make a big impact and in the latter's case, for Robinson to be the starter ahead of Kovacs.
- James Rogers is your CB alongside J.T. Floyd. Ugh.

Turner, gone; depth, gone

So word has trickled down that Justin Turner, Michigan's former standout corner prospect has asked for his release from the team. He is being pegged as one of the players that Rodriguez now infamously said were out of shape and unable to play D-I football. And for a team that's already staring down a harrowing depth chart on defense (specifically in the secondary), the loss of a should-be star is a massive blow. So with that in mind, let's take a look at Michigan's existing depth chart:

Troy Woolfolk	J.T. Floyd
Cullen Christian	Terrence Talbott/Courtney Avery
Terrence Talbott/Courtney Avery	Various walk-ons

In other words, not great. Aside from Woolfolk, who has established himself as the #1 corner, there are very few certainties here. Is Floyd the #2? Can Christian work his way into the starting rotation? Is Floyd better than he was last year? Are Talbott and Avery ready for the prime time? But before we go any further, let's take a look at what we do know (Woolfolk aside as his body of work speaks for itself):

J.T. Floyd: The projected starter alongside Woolfolk, Floyd saw limited playing time last year after Cissoko crashed and burned, and he looked woefully overmatched for much of it. He wasn't fast enough to cover receivers one-on-one, necessitating a 10-yard cushion at the line of scrimmage and opening Michigan up to a lot of quick screens that went for 7 yards. But a key part of Floyd's progression that often went unmentioned is that he was a redshirt freshman.

Floyd was a middling 3-star athlete out of high school. Rivals listed him at 179 lbs and the current Michigan roster lists him at 183, an unimpressive gain for a player going through three years of Barwis training, though much more weight than that and he risks fluidity and speed. Speaking of speed, he doesn't have much of it. Aside from what we saw on the field last year, Rivals has him running a 4.73 second 40, which is pretty low given the juicing of recruiting numbers.

Terrence Talbott/Courtney Avery: Talbott and Avery come in with basically identical recruiting resumes and are both going to be asked to contribute far too early. Both hail from Ohio and rank 47th and 51st in the state respectively. Both are listed at 5'10" and around 170 lbs.

Avery received middling-at-best offers from the likes of Standford, Vanderbilt, and Louisville, along with the likes of Eastern Michigan and Army. Talbott, meanwhile, at least comes in with a few more respectable offers: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Illinois, UConn, and Cincinnati. The point is, these two guys are nearly interchangeable (though if you ask me, Talbott sees the most playing time), neither have the recruiting hype to really make an immediate impact, and are both players that projected to be potential contributors down the line. Michigan will need their services far too soon.

Cullen Christian: Christian is now the real impact youngster to watch this year. Before the arrival and departure of Demar Dorsey, Christian was one of the gets for the Wolverines secondary. In terms of replacing Turner (or rather Turner's potential), Christian is the best bet. And a realistic one, too.

Turner and Christian's recruiting hype are at least relatively similar according to Rivals. Both come in as 4-star prospects (Turner admittedly higher and near 5-star status) and ranked in the top 10 in their respective states (1st in Ohio; 2nd in Pennsylvania, respectively). Turner ranked #35 nationally while Christian sneaks just inside the top 100 at #99. And Turner had offers from the likes of OSU, WVU, MSU, and Pitt; offers that Christian replicates along with various other BCS schools.

Rivals even has a sidebar that says, "Cullen Christian reminds us of... Justin Turner". The point is, the loss of Turner's talent/potential is not irreplaceable. The bigger issue is to depth.

Is there any reason for optimism? Yes and no. No because, well, look above. Yes for two reasons: First, corner is a position that, as is going to be repeated over and over again in the Michigan blogosphere for the next month, young players can come in and make an immediate impact. Christian is the most likely to do so, but if we see functional play out of Avery or Talbott, consider that a net plus. The other reason for optimism is the scheme shift that's taking place this year. Players have said that this year's schemes rely more on zones than man-to-man coverage, meaning Michigan will be able to get away with only two corners on the field most of the time. This will put more pressure on the likes of Craig Roh, Obi Ezeh, and Jonas Mouton, not to mention the other incoming freshmen players (I'm looking at you Marvin Robinson), but if they can get away with Floyd handling underneath zones rather than streaking wide receivers, damage might be mitigated.

This is a bad thing, but if Michigan can avoid injuries to its secondary this year, it may not be as devastating as it seems. Now we just have to pray like hell Christian came to Michigan ready to contribute and the Tao of Barwis has a fast track.

Grilled salmon with a side of MOEAKI!!!

As I mentioned in my way-too-long breakdown of Michigan's defensive schemes against Penn State, the team ran a 4-4 alignment with a lot of zone for most of the game. In the second quarter, Penn State finally reacted to the coverage and was able to slip a tight end, Andrew Quarless, into the secondary for a long, uncontested touchdown. Much of the blame on this play goes on Jordan Kovacs who was playing deep and whose only responsibily is basically to stop this play from happening. Pictures:

This is the presnap alignment. Penn State is in a three-wide set with a running back in the backfield and a tight end to the strongside of the field. Michigan is in the alignment they played for most of the day: A 4-4 front with the a linebacker shaded inside the slot man, Donovan Warren 10 yards off the line, and Troy Woolfolk over the other outside receiver (with over the top help from Kovacs). Mike Williams is moved up near the line of scrimmage as is playing a zone, bracket technique with Warren. Andrew Quarless, the Penn State tight end on the receiving end of the touchdown is lined up on the top of the screen. Obi Ezeh will end up covering him.

At the snap, you can see the four defensive linemen rush. Stevie Brown is dropping into coverage on the slot man. Williams is watching the run near the line of scrimmage while also covering the shallow zone on the backside receiver. Kovacs has help over the top and Warren is covering the deep zone. Ezeh and Mouton are the middle linebackers.

It's difficult to see here, but Quarless is releasing straight into the secondary on a skinny post route. There's been a lot of players taking blame for this play (everyone except Kovacs who I haven't heard any public "I dun screwed up" from). Brandon Herron is lined up on the line of scrimmage over Quarless presnap and has said that he didn't press Quarless at all, giving him the free release. This is all well and good, but this play is not his fault. I believe Ezeh has also said it was his fault in coverage, but no one expects him to be able to cover anyone.

Here, you can clearly see Quarless out in the middle of the field and Ezeh turning to give chase. Stevie Brown, who would be better suited to cover Quarless was pulled over to cover the slot man who is running a stop route. Williams is runing to cover the receiver on the backside that he and Warren were bracketing. The other outside receiver that Woolfolk is covering (on the top of the screen) is also running a stop route, like you can see here.

This is where Kovacs screws up. Once both of those receivers run their stop routes, Kovacs absolutely has to get over and help on Quarless. Kovacs was given that third of the field and was just keyed in on the wide receivers. Better safeties can make this play on the fly. Even better ones will know what to do before the snap. Kovacs is a glorified run stuffer and looks lost out there.

For whatever reason, Kovacs still has not broken toward Quarless, even though the other two receivers he's in charge of looking after have both run stop routes. The defensive line hasn't gotten any pressure, and Mouton was dropped into a short zone in the middle of the field, likely to spy Clark in case he tucked the ball to run.

The ball is in the air and Ezeh is unable to keep up with Quarless, allowing him over a yard of separation. You can see Kovacs (circled in red due to blurryness) is starting to break to the ball. By this time, it's way too late, and he doesn't have the athleticism to catch up to the pass or tight end. It looks like Kovacs just has a really difficult time diagnosing plays. Rodriguez always talks about where players' eyes are, and that typically causes these blunders. I think Kovacs was just staring down the receivers and had no idea that Quarless had released into the secondary.

Diarist Steve Sharik at MGoBlog took a look at the play as well and has this to say:

The long TD to the TE was Kovacs responsibility.  We were in Cover 2.  The completion wasn't on him, but the fact that it turned into a TD was on him.  There were three breakdowns on the play.  First, Brandon Herron lines up too far outside the TE, allowing him a free release.  There's no reason for him to be out that far given there's Stevie Brown apexed b/w the slot and the TE, plus a hard corner in cover 2.  Second, Obi doesn't collision the TE, mostly b/c of his unmolested release, but Obi still has to at least get his hands on the TE and widen him toward the half safety.  Third, and most importantly, Kovacs has the deep half of the field.  The two WRs both ran hitches, which should have refocused Kovac's eyes inside to #3.  He didn't get depth, and then looked less than speedy attempting to chase down the TE.

I don't totally agree with the analysis. It's tough to see on the tape, but I don't think Warren dropped into a cover 2 any more than he had on the previous plays; he put a diagram of the play up, but unless he can see something I can't, I'm sticking with my evaluation that Warren was running a bracket on the outside receiver like we had been doing all game. He's right that both Herron and Ezeh should've put a hand on Quarless, but regardless, the fact that this play resulted in a touchdown is solely on Kovacs.

More than anything, however, this was a really good play call from Paterno or whoever is calling the plays over there. We had run this alignment for much of the game and mostly defended pass plays the same way, especially when a third receiver was brought into the slot. Hypothetically, if Herron gets a good press on Quarless and Ezeh bumps his out toward Kovacs a bit more, this still has a pretty good chance of resulting in a completion. The play call was basically perfect against this defensive look and was designed to put Ezeh into man coverage (yikes) and see if Kovacs knew what he was doing. All of the things that could've gone right for Penn State did on this play.