Mississippi State: Inside pitch

A series on Michigan's Gator Bowl opponent. You can find all preview content on the 2011 Gator Bowl page in the sidebar.

I've spent the last week and a half breaking down Mississippi State game film and writing optimistically about why Michigan Might Win. Long story short: unsound defensive numbers, Michigan's ability to exploit blitzes, and a vulnerable looking Bulldogs offensive line. The occasional Mississippi State fan that stumbles over here invariably goes, "But Michigan sucks", I shrug and say, "Yes, I know, but maybe?" And despite all of the exploitable moments, Mississippi State still does one thing that will probably kill Michigan: they, urm, are pretty good at football.

Michigan's had trouble with option looks like the Bulldogs' all year. And given the amount of misdirection that MSU runs, Michigan is going to be in trouble unless they play incredibly disciplined and smart football. One play against Auburn in particular has given me nightmares.

MSU is in a 3x1 formation with a tight end on the weak side of the offensive line. Before the snap, the X receiver starts in motion and will run behind Chris Relf as the ball is snapped. Auburn is in a 4-3 alignment, possibly with their nickelback on the field shaded over the slot receiver.

On the snap, the X receiver is directly behind Relf. The tight end (#32 Marcus Green, red) begins to pull behind the formation. The trips receivers on the strong side of the field start upfield looking to block. The Mississippi State offensive line intentionally leaves the stronside defensive end unblocked.

This is a great shot of the triple option: you can clearly see the TE Green, Relf, and RB Vick Ballard swinging around to the strongside of the field. The Auburn defensive end has started upfield to attack Relf and Ballard, completely unaware that Green is pulling across the formation on the triple option. Auburn's playside linebacker also didn't see Green coming across the field, and MSU's right tackle is releasing to the second level to block the weakside linebacker.

The playside defensive end and linebacker effectively have the Relf/Ballard option wrapped up in the backfield but never recognized Green on the triple option. Down the field, the right tackle is blocking the weakside linebacker, the trips receivers are either engaged downfield or headed toward safeties, and the right guard is releasing to the second level to block someone downfield as well.

Green has caught the ball and has nothing but blockers and turf ahead of him. The playside linebacker has overpursued the play trying to thwart the option in the backfield. This won't go for a touchdown, but it goes for a fair amount of yards.

What does it mean?
Argh, terrible linebacker play, poor play recognition, safeties having to come downfield to make tackles. This play is basically a microcosm of everything that's bad about Michigan's defense this year. If Mississippi State pulls out a bunch of this type of misdirection plays, Michigan's defense is probably sunk. That is unless Mouton and Demens are perpetually in the film room from now until January 1. For Michigan, defending plays like this will very likely come down to film study/preparation and avoiding mental mistakes. It'll also be important for Kovacs, Cam Gordon, and Vinopal to come downhill and make plays.

If this was one play in the Mississippi State arsenal, I'd feel more confident (e.g., zone read plays in Ohio State's playbook). Unfortunately, this sort of play is the Bulldogs' offense, which means we're probably going to see a pretty high variance of defensive results: Demens and Mouton will probably make a lot of impressive plays, but there are also going to be a fair amount that get broken for significant yardage (like the one above) because of a single mental lapse. Being disciplined and knowing where your help defense is will be crucial, as will not overpursuing like the Auburn linebacker.

Also, you're welcome for the nightmare fuel.

Defending Mississippi State's option

A series on Michigan's Gator Bowl opponent. You can find all of this content on the 2011 Gator Bowl page in the sidebar. Previously: NCAA rankings, Defense vs. Auburn, Screen defense, Jumping the Screen, Offense vs. Auburn

As I mentioned yesterday, Michigan has the benefit of playing a team with a near identical offensive identity to one they've already played. Unfortunately, that team was Illinois who put up 65 points on the Wolverines defense. Both offenses have a mass of formations, but it seems like the one they use most frequently is this:

Here, Chris Relf is in a pistol formation on a triple option run play. Michigan saw this a lot against Illinois and had a lot of trouble with it.

Illinois is in the same formation as Mississippi State above. Michigan is showing a traditional 4-3 formation, but Jordan Kovacs  is walking down toward the line of scrimmage to turn Michigan into a 4-4 look.

During the Illinois game, Michigan was pretty blitz happy. Cam Gordon spent a lot of time blitzing off the edge, and Michigan generally brought more pressure than they have against any other opponent. Obviously, it didn't end so well. It's a high variance defense that probably causes more problems than solutions against option teams like Illinois and Mississippi State. This play in particular went for a lot of yards.

Mississippi State: NCAA rankings

Ed. note: Over the next few weeks, I'll be taking some time to break down Mississippi State film and see how Michigan matches up. First up, by the numbers.

Like most of you, I didn't see a whole ton of Mississippi State's games this year, something that will hopefully change if I can get a hold of some torrents. So right now, I don't have much to go on besides NCAA standings and various box scores. In the interest of talking about football when little else is going on, let's take a look at Michigan's bowl opponent strictly by the numbers. NCAA rankings:

• Rushing offense: 16th nationally; 215.75 yards per game,  4.61 yards per carry
• Passing offense: 91st nationally;  178.58 yards per game,  8.09 yards per attempt
• Scoring offense: 58th nationally;  27.08 points per game

All of that paints the picture of a run-first team that uses the run to set up some crushing play-action passes. The good news for Michigan is that Mississippi State doesn't have the Scott Tolzien or Ricky Stanzi-like prototypical drop back QB who is going to pick apart Michigan's defense (starter Chris Relf is completing only 56% of his passes). Unfortunately, because of the play-action, Michigan will probably spend very little time blitzing with their linebackers, opening up running lanes for a potent attack. However, Mississippi State only ranks 50th in passing efficiency, so the play-action may not be quite as effective as the numbers indicate. This side of the ball may very well come down to the reaction time of Mouton, Demens, and Ezeh, as well as aggressive playcalling on Greg Robinson's behalf.

• Rushing defense: 20th; 121.67 yards per game, 3.56 yards per attempt
• Passing defense: 89th;  236.42 yards per game, 7.00 yards per attempt
• Scoring defense: 27th; 20.33 points per game

These are pretty middling numbers, frankly. While their rush defense appears to be strong, both Iowa and Ohio State are ranked well above them, and Mississippi State's numbers are almost identical to those of Michigan State's. Michigan rushed for 4.8 YPC against MSU, 4.4 YPC against Ohio State, and 4.5 YPC against Iowa. So while each of those defenses slowed Michigan's ground game, expecting Mississippi State to do much more than that is unlikely.

What killed Michigan in each of those three games were turnovers. They had 10 combined in those losses and at least three in each game. Mississippi State's scoring defense seems somewhat incongruous with their yardage allowed (primarily 89th in passing defense), but a quick look at turnovers shows that they are 21st nationally in turnovers gained with 26. FWIW, Ohio State is 12th (29), Iowa is 47th (22), and MSU is 34th (24). If Michigan doesn't shoot themselves in the foot, chances are they'll be able to move the ball pretty well against a so-so defense.

What does it mean? On paper at least, this seems like a really good matchup for Michigan. Mississippi State's run defense is strong but on par or worse than three units Michigan has already seen and moved the ball effectively against. In terms of pass defense, statistically they are sandwiched between Purdue and Indiana, two teams that offered very little in the way of resistance (save the former's awful weather conditions).

On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State either can't or willfully hasn't shown the ability to exploit Michigan's greatest weakness: the passing game. They rarely throw the ball and rely primarily on a solid rushing attack. Michigan's traditional 4-3 did wonders against Ohio State's rush attack (the 89-yard, Vinopal-missed-tackle run excluded, Ohio State averaged 3.8 YPC), and a healthy Mike Martin could go a long way to shutting down Mississippi State's running game.

Turnovers look like they'll be the deciding factor in this one. If Michigan can hold onto the ball, they should be able to move up and down the field on Mississippi State. Then again, they did hold Auburn to only 17 points. But Auburn had two turnovers (an interception and a fumble) as well as a significant yardage disparity (348 vs. 246) that indicates they should've won by significantly more. I'll be watching this game to see what exactly Mississippi State did to hold down Cam Newton and the Auburn offense, but suffice it to say, I'd bet Auburn shot themselves in the foot a lot (a quick spot check shows a missed field in addition to the aforementioned turnovers).

Swallowing Kenny Demens addition

Today, MGoBlog Picture Paged a Wisconsin run demonstrating a flaw in the Michigan defensive formation:

by lining up his MLB just behind his nose tackle he dooms that guy to take one step to the playside, whereupon he is eaten by a guard who has no one lined up over him. Even if Michigan successfully plugs that hole they are crazy vulnerable to cutbacks and counters.

I don't think this is exactly right. The problem with the play is not necessarily that Demens is too close to the line of scrimmage, rather that Michigan's defensive numbers and zone coverage dictated not only a decent gain but a tackle by the safety.

MGoBlog's complaint is that Kenny Demens is lined up directly over Mike Martin and only two yards off the line of scrimmage. The bigger problem, however, is that Michigan is playing cover-3. Like Chris Brown of Smart Football likes to say, "football begins as arithmetic" (with depressing Michigan/Indiana tie-in!). Before this play even starts, Michigan is committing three deep safeties to an I-formation with two receivers--Courtney Avery, on the weakside of the play, is rolled down toward the line of scrimmage but because there are no receivers on his side of the field. Though it might look like more, Michigan is committing only six defenders to the box against seven Wisconsin blockers and a tailback. Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs are outside the box and covering flat zones (sort of, about which more later).

Important to note: on the strongside of play and inside the box, Michigan has four defenders (Martin, Roh, Ezeh, and Demens) versus four blockers (center, right guard, right tackle, and the fullback). The numbers are decidedly in Wisconsin's favor.

After the snap, the center and left guard double team Martin. The right guard is given a free release where Demens and Ezeh are attacking. Van Bergen is being double teamed by the left tackle and tight end. He gets sealed to the outside but understandably so. He has no shot here. There are no problems with Michigan's defense yet, but Jordan Kovacs standing with his hands on his knees becomes a huge problem in a minute.

Demens and Ezeh are running to the point of attack. The right guard, who was given a free release will be hit by Demens a yard past the line of scrimmage and Ezeh will attack the fullback.

This is where my understanding of this play varies from MGoBlog's. Brian argues that, were Demens further off the line of scrimmage, somehow, the offensive guard who was given a free release wouldn't find him or would miss his block. Frankly, that's wishful thinking. Demens plugging the line at the point of attack by taking on the offensive guard is actually the best possible scenario. Ezeh will be charged with stuffing the fullback, which will necessitate either a cutback or a bounceout. Structurally, Michigan is still sound.

The bigger issue with this play is that Michigan is playing zone coverage. Mouton and Kovacs are still frozen in place because they have to account for the pass. In Mouton's case, this is a function playing zone coverage and being assigned to the middle of the field. Kovacs, however, should be ripping down the line of scrimmage behind the offensive line right now. He can do this because Wisconsin didn't put any receivers on the weak side of the field allowing Avery to roll down and cover the overhang. So when the left guard releases his double team on Martin and starts to head upfield for Mouton...

...Kovacs needs to be rushing into the backfield to make the play on a cutback that has been forced by Ezeh and Demens stuffing the Wisconsin blockers at the line of scrimmage. Instead, Mouton has to take on an offensive guard, leaving the middle of the field open for Wisconsin:

Now look at Kovacs and Avery. What is Kovacs doing here? He's unblocked, isn't defending the overhang (that's Avery's job), and watching the play move away from him. If Kovacs had started attacking the backfield when he should have, this would've been a two yard loss. Michigan's defense is still sound if he misses: even a miss would necessitate a cut to where the play eventually goes, and Avery has overhang coverage. I think Kovacs just flat missed his assignment here and is frozen because he thinks he has a responsibility in the passing game (he doesn't as there are no weakside receivers and Avery has coverage on the weakside TE should he release).

Kovacs begins to attack the backside of the play when the ball is already beyond the line of scrimmage. Mouton has been successfully blocked. Avery, who was in overhang coverage is late getting back to the point of attack, which is OK because he needs to be behind the ball. And eventually Ray Vinopal will come downhill from the free safety spot to make the tackle.

The point of this is that it's not the alignment that's the problem. Moving Demens further from the line of scrimmage does not somehow remedy the fact that Wisconsin has a decided numbers advantage. Nor does it mean that he'll be able to read and react to a play that's designed specifically to flatten him. (What more could Demens do on this play from four yards deeper? Expecting him to completely shed a free-releasing offensive lineman is unrealistic and assumes that Michigan's players are supermen.) For this play to work, Wisconsin actually only had to block six of Michigan's defenders: Roh, Martin, and Van Bergen (all on the line), and Ezeh, Demens, and Mouton (the linebackers). Michigan essentially committed five players to the pass (the three deep safeties, along with Kovacs and Gordon at the Spur/Bandit positions). All of this despite the fact that Wisconsin had seven blockers.

This could have been remedied had Kovacs realized the shift in coverage when Wisconsin didn't put a receiver on his side of the field. But he failed to acknowledge it and instead completely took himself out of the play, acting as a redundancy overhang defender. So while I agree that this is probably an "incoherent defense", it's not the alignment of the linebackers on this play that causes the problem. Michigan is unwilling to test man coverage and, because of that, find themselves spread out and susceptible to the rush.

Zone blitz: Proof of defensive... coaching?

Michigan's defense didn't do much right against Wisconsin. They couldn't stop the run despite Wisconsin passing a grand total of one time in the second half, and couldn't stop either in the first half. And while some of this can be attributed to the dearth of talent on Michigan's defense, a fair share of blame needs to fall on the defensive coaching staff (per usual). But at least once, the coaching staff designed a play to get a free blitzer on Scott Tolien.

Wisconsin is in 3rd and nine on their first possession of the game. They're showing a four-wide set with a running back in the backfield to help block. Michigan is in their 3-3-5 front and showing blitz. Thomas Gordon, Kenny Demens, and Jonas Mouton are all on the line of scrimmage showing blitz. Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs are both two yards from the line of scrimmage and look like they're going to blitz. James Rogers, Courtney Avery, and Ray Vinopal are showing cover-3.

Immediately after the snap, all three down linemen, as well as Mouton, Demens, and T. Gordon show blitz. Kovacs is also blitzing from the second level. Cam Gordon is sitting in underneath zone coverage.

A moment later, Mike Martin (red) and Kenny Demens (blue) are dropping out of the blitz and are going to settle into underneath zones. Still blitzing are both DEs (Roh and Van Bergen), Mouton, T. Gordon, and Kovacs. Most importantly though, Van Bergen (bottom of the screen) slanted into B-gap (between the offensive tackle and offensive guard), forcing both of them to block him. This helps free up two blitzers (Kovacs and Mouton) on only one blocker (the running back).

You can see here that the running back has taken on Mouton, giving Kovacs a free rush up the gut. The offensive tackle realizes that he missed the Kovacs block and was successfully baited by Van Bergen. He's reaching back to get a hold of Kovacs. You can also see Demens and Martin settling into underneath zones just beyond the line of scrimmage. It's important to note that Michigan is rushing five men against six blockers and is still able to get a free run at Tolzien.

Kovacs is untouched.

Sacksauce. Martin and Demens are sitting in underneath zones. Mouton has pancaked the Wisconsin running back. And Wisconsin is using four blockers to stop three blitzers while the left tackle is lost in space, and Kovacs has a free run at Tolzien.

The defensive coaching staff deserves credit when they do something good. This is just such a play. While a lot of the defensive struggles this year can be attributed to schematic breakdowns brought on by poor play design, this is a play in which the coaching staff was able to manipulate the offensive line with a zone drop and get a free release on Tolzien despite blitzing five men against six blockers.

This worked because Michigan was willing to sell out on the blitz and live with whatever happened, good or bad. The only way Michigan can realistically run plays like this is when they get teams in third-and-long situations: if Wisconsin gets a big completion here, it's just a first down, something that Michigan's base defense is unlikely to stop anyway. But given the potential that the blitz brings, this play becomes a really good call in this situation. Why the defense doesn't try similar plays more often or simply blitz linebackers more frequently is beyond me. Sitting back and waiting for quarterbacks to pick apart Michigan's defense is just as dangerous as selling out on the blitz--it should be noted that if Michigan had more talent on the defensive side of the ball, this likely wouldn't be true. If Michigan wants a chance at beating Ohio State, running complex zone blitzes like this, and landing them, will be essential.

Purdue: Where Michigan looked awful

Let's be clear about one thing: Purdue is a terrible football team. Despite my assertion that their hodgepodge quaterbacking troupe would outperform their season averages against one of the worst defenses in college football, they looked lost, hopeless, and overmatched in almost every regard. Were it not for a 39-yard screen pass that resulted from a missed Michigan tackle, Purdue's quarterbacks were 16/32 for 93 yards (2.9 YPA!!!). Their running game was just was bad averaging 3.4 YPC. Purdue is bad; possibly the worst team in the Big Ten.

With that said, Michigan's 27-16 victory was... uninspiring. Purdue's defensive line thoroughly destroyed what has been one of the best offensive lines in the country this year. Part of that was due to Manimal Ryan Kerrigan, who made any Michigan lineman who tried to guard him look like a high schooler. His stat line was ridiculous: 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 10 tackles. Kerrigan is a legit top-10 NFL pick this year, but his end-to-end destruction of the offensive line is disturbing, both on a coaching standpoint (no H-back to chip block him?) and performance outlook. On Michigan's last drive, they went exclusively to their heavy set with both tight ends in the game and only two receivers, which had mixed, but generally positive results.

It stands to reason that both Michigan and Illinois were worn out from last week's marathon. Both teams faced wildly overmatched opponents (Purdue and Minnesota), and both struggled significantly. At least Michigan came out on top. The other mitigating factor was Michigan's inability to get anything going during the game due to turnovers, some of which could be attributed to the foul weather. Denard was constantly sailing deep passes--worse than he has all year, likely because of the rain--and holding onto the ball was a problem for both teams. It was an ugly win, but it was still a win. Michigan should regroup this week and get ready for the two-week gauntlet against Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Bullets

• Though Denard looked bad all game, he didn't get much help from the offensive line that was getting constantly beaten at the line of scrimmage. Vincent Smith had a good day because Purdue was over compensating for Denard, and when Denard did pull the ball, the offensive line looked sluggish. His passing wasn't great either. Anything that he threw downfield sailed well over receivers' heads and his short passes were often inaccurate. This was probably Denard's worst game of the year, at least some of which would be attributed to the rain.
• Forcier looked just as bad as Denard did when he came into the game. Again, I think this falls on the weather and offensive line.
• Michigan's defense looked functional. They played in almost exclusively three-man fronts, and showed a lot of 3-3-5 with the occasional 3-4 look. It was encouraging that the defense performed the way it did without Mike Martin and Jonas Mouton, caveats about level of competition noted.
• I'll have to watch more closely on the tape, but I think Courtney Avery had a really good game aside from the 39-yard screen pass on which he was the primary culprit. Ray Vinopal also seemed to have another good day. And Mark Moundros appeared to play really well at both outside and inside lineback positions.
• I don't really have much else to say other than let's be thankful Michigan came out on top. I'm sure there will be plenty of stuff to break down this week to try and make sense of Michigan's awful day.

Kenny Demens hype check

MGoBlog's defensive Upon Further Review against Iowa was overwhelmingly positive about the performance of Kenny Demens at middle linebacker. Demens may have actually played as well as the metrics there indicate--I don't know because I haven't gone back and watched him specifically yet--but I can't help but feel like Brian isn't a little Any Port in a Storm about the position. One such example comes on a play that MGoBlog broke down in which Iowa scored a touchdown largely because Courtney Avery did his Courtney Avery thing where he vacates zone in favor of carrying receivers too far. Of Demen's performance, he says:

Demens is fine here, I think. Mesh is tough on LBs in zone. Here he lets the receiver outside of him but he has to expect Avery will be there. He also knocks down the other guy running a drag, which is a bonus.

While I agree that Demens wasn't the main culprit on the touchdown, he was largely responsible for the blown coverage that led to the touchdown.

Michigan is in a 4-2-5 look playing cover-3. They rush four and drop the linebackers and the two corners into underneath zone coverage. Iowa is in a three-wide set with a tight end on the strong side of the field and one tailback. Iowa sends two vertical routes at Rogers on the strong side of the field, while the weakside receiver and tight end run crossing routes below the linebackers.

Right as the ball is snapped, you can see a problem with Demens' position in relation to the play. While Jonas Mouton is scanning the field and looking into the backfield, Demens has his back mostly turned to the weakside of the field. It's because of this positioning that Demens fails to see the crossing receiver until it's too late.

Demens comes up to re-route the tight end, which I don't think is his job. The tight end is very clearly dragging across the field and Demens has Mouton next to him to carry the tight end in the zone. Demens still hasn't seen the crossing receiver.

This is where you can see the difference in how Mouton and Demens defended this play. Mouton is on the balls of his toes, taking a step back as the tight end crosses into his zone. Demens, meanwhile is pushing the tight end to the ground. This is the first time that he sees the crossing wide receiver. Courtney Avery is still in good position right now and has effectively re-routed the slot receiver.

This is the "uh-oh" moment for all relevant parties. Avery who was in position in the last screen has decided that, rather than turn back to the quarterback, he'll keep his eyes on the slot receiver. Demens, meanwhile, is a statue as the weakside receiver runs right by him. A fairly conservative estimation for Demens' zone is the red spot on the field--it may even be further to the boundary as he was the strongside linebacker. As you can see, he's nowhere near it, and worse still, he's standing motionless. Avery is actually still in his zone, albeit fairly deep. The bigger problem with Avery is that he didn't turn around. Demens actually hasn't moved horizontally since the play started, and with Avery looking the wrong way, there's essentially an entire half of the field that's open. Stanzi sees this and makes an easy pass to a completely unguarded receiver.

This is how the play ends: The weakside receiver, still in the middle of Demens' zone, catches the ball completely unabated. Avery, meanwhile, has just not gotten his eyes back to the play and eventually slips trying to get back upfield. Avery wasn't in great position here, but he also wasn't in terrible position. If he hadn't fallen, he might've had a chance to make the play. Demens, on the other hand, has completely blown his assignment that would, even if Avery had played this perfectly, netted at least five or six yards.

What's especially disappointing is that, as you can see in the final screen, Craig Roh had gotten to Stanzi on the pass rush. Had Demens even feigned coverage here, it would've made Stanzi hold onto the ball longer and either make a poor throw or eat the sack.

I'm going to go back and watch the game to see how well Demens did overall. I'm fairly certain he did better than Ezeh (something that the Michigan blogosphere is mostly in agreement about), but I think MGoBlog's UFR probably overlooked a few plays like this out of sheer excitement and hope.

Corner blitzin'

I mentioned in yesterday's game column that Michigan was content playing the same defense against UMass the entire day. They didn't really show any new blitzing schemes, defensive fronts, or adjustments to try and stop what was a pretty potent UMass attack--at least potent against the shoddy defense Michigan was throwing out there. One of the specific problems I found was this:

Never blitzing a corner on Totally Surprising Quarterback Rollouts that were gashing the defense. It took Michigan until UConn's last offensive series to blitz a cornerback on the one play that UMass ran repeatedly to astounding effect. Over and over again, UMass quarterback Kyle Havens rolled out of the pocket and hit any one of various free receivers downfield that were scampering through the Wolverines' porous zones. He completed 22 of 29 passes and produced a better performance on Saturday than he did the previous two weeks against William and Mary and Holy Cross.

It took a while but I finally found the play when Michigan blitzed Floyd: it was on the Cam Gordon interception/fumble. And while Floyd's blitz wasn't the only reason Havens threw the pick, I'd venture to say it went a long way to causing it. Let's take a look at the film.

With 10 minutes to go in a  42-24 game, if Michigan gets a stop here, they very likely put the game to bed. The final result of this play is really disappointing because if Cam Gordon had held onto the interception this game is probably not quite so terrifying, but alas. Michigan is in their regular 3-3-5 set here and is bluffing a blitz on the strongside of the field. UMass' slot receiver is about to motion across the formation and will end up on the strongside of the field. UMass, as they did much of the game, has one tight end in and a single half back.

Right before the snap, you can see JT Floyd starting in on his corner blitz. The strongside blitz that Michigan was showing pre-snap will pull off the line and drop into coverage. Now, you're probably asking: What about UMass' uncovered defender at the bottom of the screen. Well UMass had been using weakside receivers as the final option on most passing downs and having the strongside receivers typically run drag routes across the field, a few yards behind the Michigan's linebacker zones. So the receiver that Floyd was cover pre-snap would not be a hot read if UMass QB Havens gets into trouble.

At the snap, Michigan rushes three--with Floyd coming off the corner--and drops the linebackers into coverage. UMass' linemen are blocking one-on-one with the defensive ends and double teaming Mike Martin. The running back will be charged with blocking Floyd.

At this point, the left guard realizes that Michigan was bluffing the blitz and doubles Ryan Van Bergen. The rest of Michigan's linemen are tied up on their blocks. The running back sees Floyd's blitz and steps up to block him. This is a critical point for Floyd: As you can see, theres a bit of a gap between the right tackle and the running back. If Floyd takes this route, the half back can simply push him through the pocket and Havens will have a free release out of the pocket. Instead, Floyd stays disciplined and continues to rush to the outside of the pocket.

Michigan's secondary has covered well enough that Greg Banks is getting off of his block and heading into the backfield. Martin is about to do the same. One reason Michigan was able to cover so well on this play was that they blanketed the strongside of the field with defenders. Floyd is continuing around the outside of the pocket and Havens has no idea he's there.

Now Havens sees the pressure coming up the middle and tries to roll out of the pocket like he had been doing all day. But instead of just having a free wheel release, when he turns his head, Floyd is rushing around the edge. Though there is a hole, Havens is forced to cut back upfield. On film, you can actually see this bother him.

Havens has now cut through the hole and is being pursued by Michigan's linemen. You can't see in this picture, but five yards beyond the line of scrimmage, Jonas Mouton is waiting for Havens and covering one of his receivers; he either has to pass it or rush for a minimal gain. Havens decides to pass the ball very late in the play and overshoots his receiver who is dragging across the play and being nominally covered by Obi Ezeh downfield.

With Havens scrambling out of the pocket and under durress, he throws up what will eventually be the Cam Gordon pick.

The point is this: When Havens was given a free release out of the pocket, which was often, he was usually able to find one of his receivers streaking through Michigan's zone. But because they sent a different look at him--Floyd coming off the edge--he had to readjust where he was able to throw the ball. Much of UMass' offense on Saturday was predicated on getting Havens to the edge and allowing him to work Michigan's zones. But with the corner blitz, he was unable to do so.

Again, if Gordon hangs onto this interception, the game is probably over in unceremonious fashion. But more importantly, this was a play where Greg Robinson dialed up something unexpected and it should've ended well for Michigan.

Ezeh vs. Kovacs: Who's responsible?

Obi Ezeh has come in for his fair share of criticism of late, no where more prominent than in MGoBlog's extensive Upon Further Review posts. Brian recently posted the UConn defensive UFR and once again, Ezeh grades out poorly. Brian highlights one play in particular in which Ezeh gets blocked off by a pulling guard and the running back jets through the gap for an 8-yard gain. The play in question:

How are the initial returns on the GERG Linebacker Magic theory? Good, but not great. It's not much of a surprise when you juuuust barely beat out a walk-on for your job but Obi Ezeh's progress has been incremental at best. He did make a nice play on the last defensive play charted up there but there was an awful lot of Ezeh getting shoved around like a rag doll and even one instance of those horrible times last year when he'd go into a pass drop on a run play. I mean:

In this play, UConn is running power, off tackle (running between your right tackle and right guard, with your left guard pulling across the line and acting as a lead blocker). But despite Ezeh not actually making the tackle, I don't see any way that the responsibility on this play doesn't fall squarely on the shoulders of Jordan Kovacs.

Regular readers of this blog will note that I don't like Kovacs on the field. (Jordan Kovacs is to me, what Obi Ezeh is to Brian Cook at MGoBlog.) In the above play, Kovacs takes a 6-yard drop into pass coverage as the ball is snapped and doesn't even recognize the play as a run until UConn running back Jordan Todman is past the line of scrimmage. In fact, he's so far out of position that the weakside safety Cam Gordon has to come across the field to make the play. Let's break it down:

Michigan is lined up with a three-man front and will be bringing a blitz from the weak side of the play. Ezeh is playing middle linebacker and Jonas Mouton is the playside linebacker. On the near hash at the 21-yard line is Jordan Kovacs. Cam Gordon is lined up on the far hash and is playing as deep as Kovacs.

At the snap, Kovacs immediately starts to drop back into pass coverage and won't stop for a while, as we'll see. Martin is being double teamed by UConn's center and right guard. The UConn left guard has started to pull across the formation to act as the lead blocker in charge of hitting Ezeh. The play side slot receiver is going to block Mouton. Greg Banks (the playside defensive end) is being sealed to the outside by UConn's right tackle.

Here, you can see that Kovacs is still backpedaling, now 4 yards deeper than he was pre-snap. Mouton is being hit by the playside slot receiver. UConn's left guard has now pulled across the formation and is in perfect position to block Ezeh. Ezeh's job here is to plug the hole that Todman is supposed to run through. He does this by hitting that pulling guard. It's then Kovacs' job to come into the play and make the tackle. Unfortunately, Kovacs isn't done backpedaling yet.

Kovacs, after taking a 5-yard drop, now realizes that this is a running play and has started to get into the game. But he's so far off the line of scrimmage that there's almost no way this play doesn't go for decent yardage. Ezeh is attacking the play. He's making contact with both the pulling left guard and Todman, but ends up getting blocked to the ground by the guard. Todman is about to slip past him into the middle of the field that has been completely vacated by Kovacs who took far too long to diagnose the play as a run.

The UConn offensive line has now done their job. The linebackers have been taken out and Todman is releasing to the next level. Kovacs is still 8 yards away from Todman without any momentum. He's a sitting duck. (Have you ever tried to stop someone running full speed at you when you are flat footed?) In fact, if it weren't for the referee standing right in the middle of the play (forcing Todman to cut to his left), I'd venture that this play has about a 50/50 chance of going for a touchdown.

But Todman has to cut around the referee who's trying desperately not to be in everyone's way, and Cam Gordon has come from across the field to make a nice wrap up tackle.

I'm usually with Brian that Ezeh makes the wrong read and generally finds himself on the wrong side of should be no-yardage plays, but this one falls squarely on this blog's goat. If Kovacs diagnoses this play quicker or doesn't drop 5 yards into coverage to compensate for his lack of elite-level speed, this is probably a two-yard gain. Instead, Todman is given an 8-yard cushion to play around with and rumbles his way for as many yards.

Brian's argument against Ezeh here is that he needs to funnel Todman to the outside, which I think is patently wrong. If Ezeh pushes Todman outside by taking a different angle on the block, UConn has two blockers against two Michigan defenders. The numbers are squarely in favor of UConn here, and the play eventually becomes a foot race between Kovacs (coming from the middle of the field) and Todman. All of Ezeh's help in this play (his weak-side blitzers, linebackers, and other safeties) are to the middle of the field. Simply because Mouton was able to get off of his block quickly in this instance does not mean that's where Ezeh was supposed to force the play.

Turner, gone; depth, gone

So word has trickled down that Justin Turner, Michigan's former standout corner prospect has asked for his release from the team. He is being pegged as one of the players that Rodriguez now infamously said were out of shape and unable to play D-I football. And for a team that's already staring down a harrowing depth chart on defense (specifically in the secondary), the loss of a should-be star is a massive blow. So with that in mind, let's take a look at Michigan's existing depth chart:

Troy Woolfolk	J.T. Floyd
Cullen Christian	Terrence Talbott/Courtney Avery
Terrence Talbott/Courtney Avery	Various walk-ons

In other words, not great. Aside from Woolfolk, who has established himself as the #1 corner, there are very few certainties here. Is Floyd the #2? Can Christian work his way into the starting rotation? Is Floyd better than he was last year? Are Talbott and Avery ready for the prime time? But before we go any further, let's take a look at what we do know (Woolfolk aside as his body of work speaks for itself):

J.T. Floyd: The projected starter alongside Woolfolk, Floyd saw limited playing time last year after Cissoko crashed and burned, and he looked woefully overmatched for much of it. He wasn't fast enough to cover receivers one-on-one, necessitating a 10-yard cushion at the line of scrimmage and opening Michigan up to a lot of quick screens that went for 7 yards. But a key part of Floyd's progression that often went unmentioned is that he was a redshirt freshman.

Floyd was a middling 3-star athlete out of high school. Rivals listed him at 179 lbs and the current Michigan roster lists him at 183, an unimpressive gain for a player going through three years of Barwis training, though much more weight than that and he risks fluidity and speed. Speaking of speed, he doesn't have much of it. Aside from what we saw on the field last year, Rivals has him running a 4.73 second 40, which is pretty low given the juicing of recruiting numbers.

Terrence Talbott/Courtney Avery: Talbott and Avery come in with basically identical recruiting resumes and are both going to be asked to contribute far too early. Both hail from Ohio and rank 47th and 51st in the state respectively. Both are listed at 5'10" and around 170 lbs.

Avery received middling-at-best offers from the likes of Standford, Vanderbilt, and Louisville, along with the likes of Eastern Michigan and Army. Talbott, meanwhile, at least comes in with a few more respectable offers: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Illinois, UConn, and Cincinnati. The point is, these two guys are nearly interchangeable (though if you ask me, Talbott sees the most playing time), neither have the recruiting hype to really make an immediate impact, and are both players that projected to be potential contributors down the line. Michigan will need their services far too soon.

Cullen Christian: Christian is now the real impact youngster to watch this year. Before the arrival and departure of Demar Dorsey, Christian was one of the gets for the Wolverines secondary. In terms of replacing Turner (or rather Turner's potential), Christian is the best bet. And a realistic one, too.

Turner and Christian's recruiting hype are at least relatively similar according to Rivals. Both come in as 4-star prospects (Turner admittedly higher and near 5-star status) and ranked in the top 10 in their respective states (1st in Ohio; 2nd in Pennsylvania, respectively). Turner ranked #35 nationally while Christian sneaks just inside the top 100 at #99. And Turner had offers from the likes of OSU, WVU, MSU, and Pitt; offers that Christian replicates along with various other BCS schools.

Rivals even has a sidebar that says, "Cullen Christian reminds us of... Justin Turner". The point is, the loss of Turner's talent/potential is not irreplaceable. The bigger issue is to depth.

Is there any reason for optimism? Yes and no. No because, well, look above. Yes for two reasons: First, corner is a position that, as is going to be repeated over and over again in the Michigan blogosphere for the next month, young players can come in and make an immediate impact. Christian is the most likely to do so, but if we see functional play out of Avery or Talbott, consider that a net plus. The other reason for optimism is the scheme shift that's taking place this year. Players have said that this year's schemes rely more on zones than man-to-man coverage, meaning Michigan will be able to get away with only two corners on the field most of the time. This will put more pressure on the likes of Craig Roh, Obi Ezeh, and Jonas Mouton, not to mention the other incoming freshmen players (I'm looking at you Marvin Robinson), but if they can get away with Floyd handling underneath zones rather than streaking wide receivers, damage might be mitigated.

This is a bad thing, but if Michigan can avoid injuries to its secondary this year, it may not be as devastating as it seems. Now we just have to pray like hell Christian came to Michigan ready to contribute and the Tao of Barwis has a fast track.

Everything I love might not be a smoldering crater

So I downloaded MGoVideo's torrent of the Spring Game to rewatch and re-evaluate and my thoughts are slightly more positive than my initial reaction. Only slightly though.

Quarterbacks
Not too much changed in my evaluation here. Robinson is your far and away starter. Forcier looked kind of lost (though I presume much of this had to do with a second-team offense that he was out of rhythm with). And Gardner, while impressive for his youth, is clearly not ready to be on the field. Next year there will be a great QB battle.

Defense
So... the second team defense is basically a horror show. Vlad Emilien still doesn't look ready for the prime time. Mark Moundros as linebacker is a nice idea but he will absolutely not contribute in any meaningful way this year. The defensive line backups are fine but unremarkable. The point being, depth is going to be an issue. The incoming freshmen should help mitigate some of this, but not entirely. Also, they're true freshmen.

As for the first team defense, they're just OK. The biggest thing that stood out to me watching the film was problems with the linebackers (surprise). With Michigan sending out 4- and 5-wide sets for much of the spring game, this meant Roh and Mouton were being pulled back into the secondary to cover zippy slot men. The hope is that with the depth of the incoming freshmen, as well as doing package subs, Michigan will have a nickel look to mitigate these problems. Early down passing is going to hurt Michigan a lot this year.

The first team defensive line is good. They're clearly the strength, anchored by Will Campbell. He was plugging up the middle and the team actually did a good job on runs throughout the scrimmage, stuffing most of them for minimal gains (at least there was only one or two long runs that broke out). If we can get the linebackers and Kovacs to hit their gaps properly, this could be a kinda not terrible run defense. Speaking of Kovacs, my opinion of him has not changed. Watching the tape, he's just so clearly in over his head. He is going to be absolutely demolished this season by tight ends and big running backs. He doesn't have the speed to drop into coverage either. Expect him to be attacked often and successfully for the entire season. We need Marvin Robinson to be able to play Kovacs' position.

Other offense stuff
The running backs were all unremarkable. No way do you see a feature back this year though don't be surprised if Michigan starts using more I-formation with Hopkins who is clearly the most physical back on the team.

Taylor Lewan, the oft-hyped left tackle this spring was good in protection but definitely got a little lost a few times. The moving pocket seemed to be a bit of a problem for him and he had trouble getting to the second level on runs. In any case, he looked competent enough to be the starting left tackle and we can feel confident that he'll be valuable throughout his career.

The wide receivers and slots were also kind of Meh during the scrimmage. We hear a lot about Player X has the potential to be a big threat on every play, but Michigan never sends receivers downfield in this offense. Maybe having more years in the system/more experienced QBs will change that, but we certainly didn't see it in this scrimmage. Otherwise, they mostly caught the balls they were supposed to catch and then got tackled.

That's about it though. You're OMGWE'RETERRIBLE ceiling has been raised to 8-4, but I think that's grasping at straws.

The Big Ten digs a grave, lies in it

Today, the Big Ten announced that it is going to suspend Ohio State safety Kurt Coleman for one game after his helmet-to-helmet hit on backup Illinois quarterback Eddie McGee. This continues the Big Ten's disturbing trend of suspending players for, well, not particularly serious on-field events.

It began with the suspension of Michgan's Jonas Mouton after a punch he threw toward the end of the Notre Dame game. Mouton's offense didn't draw a flag on the field and didn't incite much on the field (in fact, nothing on the field at all). It's my assumption that this sort of event happens a lot on the field. But it wasn't until Charlie Weis complained about the punch in the post-game conference that it drew any attention. After the suspension, Rich Rodriguez, not happy with it, said he was going to be diligent and make sure the Big Ten was as harsh on similar events in the future. Well, they were. First on Purdue offensive lineman Zach Reckman for his elbow late in Purdue's loss to Northern Illinois.

The real problem with all of these suspensions--and it began with the Mouton punch--is that the offense for getting suspended has been significantly downgraded. If the Big Ten is going to keep suspending players like this, it's going to start significantly affecting the outcome of games, and possibly, the race for the Big Ten Title. By continuing this tyrannical rule and trying to hide that these sorts of incidents happen in a football game is silly. The Big Ten has dug a grave for itself and won't be able to get out until next year rolls around and they ultimately forget this silliness ever happened. And people wonder why the Big Ten is a national joke.