Preview: Ohio 2012

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#19 Michigan vs. Ohio

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ABC

Forecast: High-30s, 0% chance of rain 

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Last week
Ohio State 21 - Wisconsin 14 (OT). Ohio State continued its meaningless undefeated season last week by beating Wisconsin in overtime. Wisconsin's third starting quarterback this season, Curt Phillips, acquitted himself well by completing 14 of 25 passes for 154 yards and 1 TD. Meanwhile, Monte Ball did his Monte Ball thing by averaging  4.9 YPC on 39 (!!!) carries. Sacks removed, Wisconsin actually managed 4.69 YPC as a team. Those sacks may be what won Ohio State the game. Defensive end terror John Simon was nigh unblockable, marking the team's four sacks. The rest of the team managed only five tackles for loss.

Braxton Miller had a typical day: 10/18 through the air for 97 yards, and 20 carries for 70 yards. Carlos Hyde also had a good game averaging 5.8 YPC on 15 carries. Despite these performances, Ohio State was only able to manage 14 points in regulation. In overtime, the Buckeyes got away with a couple of glaring holding calls that allowed them to march into the endzone on four plays. And Wisconsin couldn't move the ball at all, resulting in an undramatic extra period.

Offense vs. Ohio State

Despite the Buckeyes' undefeated season, this is not a vintage OSU defense. A quick rundown of their statistical rankings proves as much: 17th in rushing defense, 28th in pass efficiency defense, 38th in total defense, 34th in scoring defense, 34th in sacks, and tied for 77th in tackles for loss. Those are good numbers, but they're not typical Ohio State numbers.

The defense is led by defensive end John Simon who is a scary dude. On the season, he has 22 solo tackles, 22 assists, 14.5 TFLs, and 9 sacks, in addition to 4 PBUs and a forced fumble. The scary thing for Michigan's offense is that Simon will probably be lined up across from Michael Schofield who I spent the better part of the first few games this season bemoaning his lack of speed and strength. This could be bad. Next to Simon is manchild Jonathan Hankins, an NFL-sized nose tackle that has lived up to every bit of his hype this season. Hankins has 23 solo tackles, 29 assists, 4 TFLs, and a sack, but his biggest impact is the ability to get into the backfield and disrupt plays.

So running the ball on Saturday is going to be difficult. Given the weakness of Michigan's offensive line and the strength of the Buckeye D-line, moving the ball on the ground will take some sort of randomness. Fortunately, Michigan showed a whole bunch of new running formations against Iowa with Denard Robinson in the backfield intended to get to the outside of the field where Michigan can make hay against OSU.

the Buckeye linebacker corps is led by sophomore Ryan Shazier who leads the team with 68 solo tackles. He's also marked 14.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 1 interception, and 12 PBUs. He is the heart and soul of OSU's defense, but he's also mistake prone. If Michigan can get him moving in the wrong direction on counter plays, he's liable to overrun plays. The LOLZ from OSU's defense come at the middle linebacker spot where converted fullback Zach Boren has taken over the starting position. Boren began the season as a fullback by moved to the other side of the ball when the existing linebackers proved to be miserable. Think Rich Rodriguez moving Mark Moundros to linebacker. How did that turn out? At the final linebacker spot is senior Etienne Sabino, who feels like he's been around forever. Sabino is and always has been good-not-great, and his numbers this season back this up: 24 solo tackles, 19 assists, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 INT.

So despite a hilarious middle linebacker situation, OSU's front seven is relatively stout. The weakness of the defense is, shockingly, in pass defense. When's the last time OSU didn't have a fleet of lightning fast corners that locked down receivers? Sophomore Bradley Roby and senior Travis Howard are the two Buckeye corners. Howard is the better shutdown man but Roby has more physical gifts. And neither of the starting safeties Christian Bryant and CJ Barnett are particularly threatening. Of concern for Ohio State is that three members of the secondary are in the team's top-five tacklers. They allow a lot of completions: against Big Ten competition, the OSU secondary has allowed QBs to throw for 144/256 through the air (56%) with 10 TDs and 6 INTs. Calibrate for the awfulness of Big Ten quarterbacks, and you have a secondary that's giving up a lot of completions and not particularly threatening with regards to turnovers.

With Michigan's newfound ability to throw the ball, this matchup actually slides slightly toward Michigan. OK, so Michigan's wide receivers are bad, but Michigan may not need to break a ton of long plays if OSU is allowing a bunch of mid-range throws that Devin Gardner has proven to be really accurate on. Running is going to be a harrowing affair, so getting John Simon blocked on drop backs (paging AJ Williams or Devin Funchess' non-existant blocking abilities) and giving Gardner time to survey the field and possibly scramble for first downs will be crucial for Michigan's offensive success.

Defense vs. Braxton Miller

So a few years ago, Michigan fans had to listen to that ridiculous stat that Denard Robinson accounted for 197% of Michigan's offense and every time someone said that, I got especially stabby. That receivers are not "responsible" for any of the yards on catches and YAC is dumb, but I digress. Now its Ohio State who has a quarterback responsible for their entire offense, but because Miller is an OSU quarterback and never gets injured, and because the Big Ten is atrocious and OSU hasn't played a decent defense to date, you don't hear the same conditionals about Miller's play: he is unequivocally awesome if you ask the media. And OK, fine, he's really good but he also has obvious limitations.

Miller is completing just 56% of his passes on the season with 14 TDs and 6 INTs. His yardage total is also fairly impressive but largely because safeties are bugging out against the run and getting caught out of position. He also has Devin Smith to throw to, which doesn't hurt. You might remember Smith from making one of the best catches of the season in week one. Or from any one of his long touchdown catches this season (he's averaging 19.8 yards per reception this year).

The rest of the OSU receiver corps is acceptable without a ton of gamebreakers. Corey Brown leads the team in receptions but is basically just a possession guy. And the name that you already hate and probably will more after Saturday's game is Jake Stoneburner, a senior wide receiver whose catches are all one yard further than the necessary yardage for a first down.

So that's passing which will be an annoyance but won't be a major threat to Michigan's defense like it was in last year's The Game. Beating the Buckeyes stops and ends with stopping their running game, which is no small feat. The offensive line starts four juniors and a senior and don't have any particularly weak spots. Combine that with rumbleback Carlos Hyde and Miller's top-end speed, and you've got a scary offense. Miller leads the team in carries and yards (207 and 1,416 respectively) and is averaging 5.9 YPC. He has breakaway speed, but he's less effective between the tackles and among defenders where he doesn't have the shake that someone like Denard does. Keeping outside leverage on Miller is essential, and hopefully Mattison has the defense better prepared to maintain the QB than they did against Northwestern. Hyde, meanwhile, is averaging 5.2 YPC this season and makes a lot of yardage after contact.

The one thing that has gone unmentioned is Greg Mattison who was Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida. Mattison has struggled with option teams in his two years at Michigan mostly because his gameplan is deficient heading into the game. He has something theoretical that he draws up which doesn't actually work. Against Meyer, you would expect Mattison's schemes to be more effective because of his familiarity with Meyer's schemes. If the linebackers and defensive ends properly execute whatever containment scheme Mattison has for the running game, I expect Michigan's playcalling on this side of the ball to produce good results against OSU.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Shut down Braxton Miller and don't turn the ball over. Despite Miller's gaudy numbers this season, the Buckeyes have had a tendency to have sub-par offensive outputs. Given the state of the Big Ten, that's especially damning. If Michigan can allow Miller to gain over 4 yards per carry instead of 5 or 6, OSU will eventually sputter out offensively. On the other side of the ball, Gardner needs to build upon the performances he's shown the last three weeks. Michigan has new wrinkles in the offense now that will allow Denard and a fleet of blockers to get to the outside, away from OSU's defensive strength. Hold onto the ball and Michigan can probably move the ball more consistently.

How does Ohio State win? Braxton Miller and sacks. Miller has to throw the ball a lot better than he has all season because Michigan's front seven is stout while the secondary will struggle against faster receivers like Devin Smith. If Michigan's gameplan isn't designed to shut down Miller, this will be an ugly, frustrating day. They also need a big performance from John Simon who, if he is going up against Schofield, will almost certainly be able to produce.

Arbitrary chance Michigan wins: 50%

Final Prediction. In my heart of hearts, I want to predict a Michigan victory. Gardner is playing really well, the defense has the speed to shut down OSU's rushing attack, and I firmly believe that Mattison will be a game changer. But... I just can't. This is Michigan and Ohio State in Columbus. Michigan has a QB who has been notoriously bad until the last three weeks. The Wolverine offensive line is bad. The defensive secondary is not good. And I can see nothing but Braxton Miller scampering for 19 yards over and over and over again. So if I'm being honest, 28-17 Ohio State. But like, fuck it, Michigan 23 - Ohio State 21.

Run defense vs Iowa

Though Iowa was able to check down to its tight ends to keep drives alive throughout the game, I was more concerned with Michigan's running defense against a team with a makeshift offensive line and no dynamic running backs. It became pretty clear what Iowa was doing to have success and you could see the difference between their success and Michigan's lack of success running under center.

Iowa shows a two-TE  ace formation with two wide receivers to the boundary. Michigan is in its 4-3 under with Jordan Kovacs rolled into the box. Iowa will run an inside zone to the weakside of the field.

The key to this play is the block on Campbell and the weakside B gap (highlighted), where the play is intended to go. On the snap, Michigan's defensive line slants toward the weakside of the play. Campbell engages the playside offensive guard. The right tackle will get a free release to the second level.

Campbell has now been sealed to the inside despite slanting toward the play. He's gotten decent penetration, but the offensive guard is allowing him to get inside. Craig Roh is in the process of overrunning the play.

Despite Campbell's penetration, he hasn't kept gap responsibility because the offensive guard pushed him beyond the point of attack. Roh has been sealed to the outside. And the linebacker who was supposed to cover this gap (James Ross) has gotten a free-releasing offensive tackle in his face (Iowa's #70).

Roh and Campbell both reach to make the tackle but can't stop Mark Weisman who has a full head of steam.

And this is where Brady Hoke gets upset....

...because JT Floyd gets absolutely trucked and can't stop Weisman from picking up the first down.

Video

The Takeaway
This play starts with Campbell and the offensive guard getting playside of him. Campbell starts this play outside of the guard and, without any blocking help, allows the guard to seal him back to the inside. That's bad and that's why there's such a gaping hole here, but watching this play in contrast to Michigan's under-center runs highlights a stark contrast: Michigan doesn't create gaps like this. Despite the fact that Campbell doesn't play this particularly well, he's able to get good penetration and into the backfield, but the offensive guard helps him along, knowing that even if Campbell gets into the backfield, as long as he's kept to the inside, Weisman will have a lane to run through. Michigan's blocking schemes have confused the offensive line all season and may contribute to this lack of holes for running backs. Regardless, it's disheartening watching Iowa's mediocre offensive line able to create holes and separation for their running backs in ways that Michigan's line can't, but I'm hoping this is talent-related (Michigan's interior line is really weak) and not scheme-related.

A ray of hope

Iowa 17 - #21 Michigan 42

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

I'm supposed to have something poetic to say about Denard Robinson, but Saturday's game left me cold. Denard lining up as a running back is not how this is supposed to go, not in college football where he turns dropped snaps into 43-yard touchdowns and made an entire fan base invent a whole new vocabulary to grapple with what he was doing on the field. For the last three years, Michigan fans have held their collective breath as Denard did whatever he could to get the ball 10 yards further toward the endzone. We usually exhaled pleasantly surprised.

The lasting image of Saturday's game for me, however, will be Fitz Toussaint's gruesome broken leg. In real time, there wasn't much to see but the slow-motion replay was one of those scenes they'll never show again and that I unfortunately saw before I could cover my eyes. Those are the kinds of injuries that end careers. For a player who has spent the last 11 games unsuccessfully fighting off tacklers in the backfield, in one of the first times all season he gets to the light of day and that happens. It all just seems unfair.

Toussaint has another season if he's able to recover, a luxury that's not afforded to Denard who lost his season to a similarly unfair albeit less horrifying injury. Denard's last game in the Big House felt like a dud though, and the heckling he'll get from Ohio State fans won't even be deserving of a his success. He'll be on the sideline rather than letting the "boos" rain down on him on the field. Denard Robinson's final game in a Michigan jersey will be in a half-filled stadium somewhere far away from Ann Arbor.

Of course Jordan Kovacs and Will Campbell and Roy Roundtree also touched the banner for their final time in maize and blue and unlike Denard, it's unlikely any of these guys will sniff the NFL. Were it not for Denard the last three years, this would probably go down as one of the most forgettable senior classes in Michigan history. Recruited by Rich Rodriguez, he specialized in finding the diamonds in the rough, of which none ever developed at Michigan. Three straight classes of pedestrian talent held together by Denard's heroics.

I think that's why Denard became so beloved. Put aside his smile or the fact that he's a talent that Michigan had never seen before. He was a ray of hope during the program's most devastating three years. Were it not for Denard, Michigan's abhorrent record during his tenure would have been even worse. There's a reason that there are multiple instances of Denard's first snap on YouTube with 60,000-plus views. He was Michigan football over the last year, both figuratively and literally.

With only two games left, Denard will be unceremoniously sent off to the NFL where his career will probably be a flash in the pan, not unlike his time at Michigan.

Preview: Nebraska 2012

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#22 Michigan vs. Nebraska

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Neb

Kickoff 8:00 pm EST

ESPN2

Forecast: Low-50s, 0% chance of rain 

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Nebraska Last Week
Through 55 minutes and 50 seconds last week, Nebraska had amassed a total of 387 total yards of offense against Northwestern, but managed only 16 points, thanks in large part to two lost fumbles. In its last two full drives, Nebraska racked up 156 yards, almost all on the arm of Taylor Martinez (11/13 for 143 yards and 2 TDs). For the game, Martinez threw for 342 yards on 39 attempts (8.8 YPA) and three touchdowns. On the ground, Martinez added 65 yards on 18 carries.

Defensively, Nebraska mostly shut down Northwestern's rushing attack. Venric Mark was able to rack up 116 yards on 18 carries, but he was the only one and largely because of an 80-yard run on a blown play by the Nebraska middle linebacker Will Compton (the team's leading tackler). Northwestern's offense isn't what it has been the last few years, but holding them to only 301 yards is still an accomplishment.

Offense vs. Nebraska

Since Michigan's offensive output generally comes down to how well Denard will fare in the passing game, Nebraska presents a unique problem: the Cornhuskers rank eighth in the nation in sacks with 21 total (3.14 per game). The charge is led by senior weakside defensive end terror Eric Martin (pictured). Martin has 5.5 sacks and 8 TFLs already this season. He also has 7 QB hits, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery. Shutting down Martin will be critical to winning this game, so expect Devin Funchess or another tight end to line up next to Schofield all game, forcing Martin to rush against Taylor Lewan. Martin isn't the only pass rusher, though. There are four different players on the Nebraska roster with at least two sacks this year and 13 with at least a half of a sack. For a quarterback who is prone to backfoot throws when he gets pressure, this kind of pass-rush spells doom for Michigan.

Nebraska is able to generate that kind of production because they play a lot of man coverage, both in its base formation and blitz coverage (though they don't blitz much). The 80-yard touchdown run that Nebraska allowed against Northwestern was the direct result of Will Compton being pulled to the flat trying to cover running back leaking out of the backfield. If anything could be gleaned from last week's matchup, it's that Nebraska is susceptible to counters and misdirection because of their aggressive man defense.

Despite all of the man coverage, Nebraska is an impressive 18th in pass efficiency defense. Michigan's receivers are going to struggle to get off the line against the Cornhusker cornerbacks. Josh Mitchell and Stanley Jean-Baptiste both play strong man coverage, and Michigan's wide receivers have had trouble with physical corners. Safeties Daimion Stafford and PJ Smith are also decent in coverage but are more of a factor in the run game, ranking second and third in tackles. Victimizing Nebraska's safeties and linebackers with play action is something Northwestern did often last week. Al Borges probably won't want to do this.

Those safeties have to be aggressive against the run because defensive tackle Baker Steinkuhler is a wiry 6'6" 290 lbs. That's one of the reasons that Nebraska is 90th in rushing defense this year. The other reason: if you make it past the defensive line, as long as you've spread the field, there's a good chance you're not going to see another defender until the safeties come into play. Making the proper reads in the option game and getting some blockers to the second level will be crucial for Michigan to spring big plays.

The best part about playing against Nebraska this year as opposed to 2011: no Lavonte David, the team's unquestioned leader and best defensive player last year. David stopped quite a few Denard runs last year from being 80-yarders with shoestring tackles. Despite generally solid linebacker play, if Michigan can get Denard or Toussaint in space against these linebackers, that's a win for the Wolverines.

Defense vs. Nebraska

You know Taylor Martinez, but you might not know 2012 Taylor Martinez. Though he's still not an elite passer, he's been significantly better this season, completing 67% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and a 15 TD/4 INT rate. Those are some scary numbers. However, his stats are significantly worse against teams with respectable defenses (UCLA, Wisconsin, Ohio State; 49/85, 57.6%, 574 yards, 6.75 YPA, 3 TD/4 INT).

It will be interesting to see what Michigan can do against Martinez. When he has time in the pocket, Martinez can make all of the throws, but Nebraska ranks 76th in sacks allowed. The problem is, Michigan can't generate a pass rush without blitzing. Greg Mattison finding ways to confuse Martinez without giving up too much in the run game may be the most important task he has all season.

Nebraska's rushing attack is still elite, averaging 279 yards per game (good for 6th in the country). Rex Burkhead is coming back from a leg injury that kept him out of a lot of the Northwestern game. Last year, Burkhead was the hot commodity coming into Nebraska's game against Michigan, but managed only 36 yards on 10 carries. Martinez wasn't much better on the ground or through the air, but the latter of which we've already addressed.

I'm frankly not worried about Nebraska's rushing attack (famous last words, I know). I have implicit faith in Mattison's ability to scheme for and prepare his players for any offensive attack that can't simply overpower Michigan with talent (see: Alabama). Mattison knows how these spread attacks work because a) he was Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida and b) he goes against Denard Robinson in practice every week.

The key to winning this side of the ball will be the defensive line. Quinton Washington and Will Campbell are basically constants, and Craig Roh has been a good-to-great strongside defensive end. Jibreel Black and Frank Clark at the weakside defensive end will have to stay disciplined against the option and stick to whatever gameplan Mattison has designed (play the QB or the RB). If it's Black at WDE, his lack of speed may be an issue, but if Clark can step into the role, that should help nullify Nebraska speed.

If the defensive line can hold up, Kenny Demens, Desmond Morgan, and Jake Ryan against running backs in space will decide how this game goes for Nebraska offensively. Though Martinez has a lot of straight-line speed and a little bit of shake to him, none of Nebraska's running backs are threatening in the open field.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Getting pressure on Taylor Martinez will be crucial. If they can force Martinez to complete closer to 50%-55% of his passes, Mattison can start loading up against the run. Jake Ryan will be responsible for a lot of this pass rush as he has been all season long. He will have to stay disciplined keeping outside leverage and make sure to wrap up in the backfield. JT Floyd and Raymon Taylor are going to have their hands full with Nebraska's taller wide receivers, which is another reason pass rush will be critical.

Offensively, Michigan needs to get Denard to the second level. Nebraska's linebackers are aggressive downhill and just watched Michigan run head first into MSU's linebackers for 60 minutes. If Patrick Omameh and Ricky Barnum can get to the second level and block Nebraska's linebackers, Denard will be able to pick up big chunks of yards. In the passing game, Denard and Borges need to find an effective way to attack man-to-man coverage down the field.

How does Nebraska win? Keep doing what they've been doing. If Martinez is completing 67% of his passes in this game, Michigan is sunk. The Nebraska coaching staff varies their run game as well as almost anyone in the country. Keeping Michigan's defensive line on its heels with multiple option looks will further slow down the Wolverines' already inept pass rush. They will, however, need to find a way to get big plays from non-Martinez ball carriers.

Defensively, Nebraska needs to keep generating the pass rush they've gotten all season. Though Denard has cut down his terrible, backfoot throws since the Notre Dame game, the kind of pressure Nebraska generates could see a return to that inconsistency. If the linebackers can stop Denard and Toussaint from breaking long plays, a physical secondary will be able to stop Michigan's passing game.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 41.031%

Final Prediction. Offensively, expect Al Borges to utilize the counter draw that Michigan has shown a few times this year and last, as well as the throwback screen, both of which will punish Nebraska's linebackers for overpursuing. Denard and Toussaint both break 30+ yard runs as Nebraska linebackers get caught out of position. However, Denard throws two interceptions, both of which are meaningful and not end-of-half heaves.

Martinez will complete more deep, downfield throws in this game than Michigan has allowed all season, but none of them go for touchdowns; they're heaves to wide receivers who can out-leap and out-muscle Michigan's corners. However, Michigan holds Nebraska to near 150 yards rushing. It's boom-or-bust for Nebraska's offense. Michigan finally gets a good kick/punt return. Nebraska rallies late but Michigan clutches to the win. Michigan 27 - Nebraska 24

Quinton Washington can shed your block

Despite the fantastic year that Jake Ryan is having, Michigan's most improved defensive player is still Quinton Washington, with a bullet. Washington, along with Will Campbell, are major reasons that Michigan was able to shut down Le'Veon Bell against Michigan State. What follows is another piece of evidence in favor of Quinton Washington for President and one of the best examples of a Michigan defender getting off a block to make a play that we've seen all season.

Michigan has just punted after a three-and-out following Michigan State's only touchdown drive of the game. MSU comes out in a two-wide I-formation look. Michigan is in its pseudo-nickel with Jake Ryan lined up over the slot receiver and only two linebackers in the box. Michigan's defensive ends are shaded just outside the offensive tackles while Will Campbell is covering the strongside guard and Washington is in the weakside A-gap.

As the ball is snapped, Washington engages the right guard (highlighted). The MSU center is chip blocking Washington before releasing to the second level. MSU is running a weakside-iso.

MSU's center is now releasing to the second level to block Kenny Demens. Washington and Roh and singled up on the MSU right guard and tackle, respectively.

This is the moment of truth for Le'Veon Bell. He has to make one of two cuts. Desmond Morgan is in good position on the backside run fill, but he's only able to fill this hole because Will Campbell has stopped the MSU left guard from releasing to the second level. Bell is forced to cut to his right.

But Bell didn't expect Washington to annihilate the MSU right guard. The lane that was clear for Bell a moment ago is now occupied by Washington. Bell is forced the bounce the run outside again, but Craig Roh is getting good push on the MSU right tackle.

Washington is now lunging to tackle Bell. He won't make the tackle, but he's already accomplished his goal. In a moment, you'll see JT Floyd flying downhill as Bell tries to bounce outside Roh.

Bell has now totally broken contain, which allows Roh to release from the MSU right tackle and chase Bell. Floyd is now the contain defender running downhill to tackle Bell, but he's making sure to maintain outside leverage.

But why keep contain when you can just chop down Bell mid-stride?

Video

The Takeaway
I'm starting a Kickstarter. It will raise money to buy Greg Mattison pies. Let me know if you're interested.

When coaches talk about players needing better technique, getting off blocks better, and maintaining leverage, this is the play that they show in the film room. It all starts with the defensive line: Will Campbell nullified the MSU left guard allowing Desmond Morgan to fill the backside run gap; Craig Roh kept outside contain, forcing Bell to bounce to the sideline and allowing Michigan's secondary to come downhill and attack the ball carrier; and Quinton Washington stayed firm on his blocker and was able to shed the block to cut off Bell's primary running lane.

This is the kind of performance the defensive line has been turning in all season and something that was unthinkable two years ago. The discipline to stay in the proper lanes is one thing, but Campbell recognizing he needs to stop the MSU lineman from releasing to the linebackers and Washington's ability to toss aside MSU's blocker in order to make the proper run fill are examples of coaching that the team didn't get under the previous regime.

Preview: Michigan State 2012

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Michigan State vs. Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-50s, 20% chance of rain 

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MSU Last Week

Iowa 19 - MSU 16 (2OT). Andrew Maxwell, intent on bringing back Sparty No! threw a pick in the second half of double overtime to end the Spartans bid to beat inexplicably 4-2 Iowa. Le'Veon Bell had his best game of the season and finally looked like the dangerous running back he's rumored to be but still only managed 4.8 YPC (albeit on 29 carries). Andrew Maxwell is still an inexperienced, inconsistent quarterback that is most certainly not Kirk Cousins. Against Iowa, he threw 12/31 for 179 yards and 1 INT. Maxwell has a lively arm but accuracy is a major concern. The only MSU wide receiver that anyone ever needs to be scared of is Aaron Burbridge who had 89 yards on five catches.

Iowa was worse than MSU but somehow managed the win. Supposed-to-be best QB in the conference James Vandenberg was terrible, completing just 19 of 36 passes for 134 yards (3.7 YPA). Don't let those numbers fool you: not even checkdowns were a guarantee. Iowa's only running back with two legs, Mark Weisman, ran stride for stride with Bell, averaging 4.5 YPC on 26 carries.

This was a game of incompetent offenses that someone had to win. Iowa was the beneficiary of the game's most critical turnover (Maxwell's in 2OT) which decided the outcome.

(I'm removing what Michigan did last week from this section because you know what happened last week.)

Offense vs. Michigan State

Michigan State's defense is the only thing that's kept them in games this season because their offense is atrocious. MSU ranks 8th in rushing yards per game allowed, 12th in pass efficiency defense, and 14th in scoring defense. The other side of the coin is that the Spartans haven't played anyone this year that can really fill up the scoreboard. The only team with a respectable offense (Indiana, of all teams; 31st in points per game) put up 27 points in the first half against MSU before being shut down in the second half (more on this later).

The Spartans are led, not surprisingly, by junior middle linebacker Max Bullough who has 31 solo tackles, 27 assists, 5.5 TFLs, 2 PBUs, and a forced fumble. Bullough is the real deal: a great downfield run stuffer who can drop into coverage and is never caught out of position. Think Kenny Demens' ceiling. At the SLB spot is junior Denicos Allen who is the team's second leading tackler in his second year as the starter. And at the WLB position will be senior Chris Norman.

Combined, the starting linebackers account for 12.5 TFLs of the team's 38. This is an aggressive, blitzing group. These tendencies were exploited against Indiana, where the Hoosiers were able to march up and down the field almost exclusively on bubble screens in the first half. With such dogged determination to get into the backfield, MSU's linebackers are susceptible to horizontal attacks. Hopefully Al Borges was watching this game and took notes; tunnel screens back to the inside of the field are not going to end well, but throw bubbles to the boundary and Michigan could find easy first downs all game.

The concern for Michigan against this unit is, like last year, the double A-gap blitz that makes Denard heave balls off his back foot. These are plays that Rimington award winner David Molk struggled to block. Tasking Elliott Mealer with the same responsibilities spells trouble. To slow down Pat Narduzzi's blitzing defense as well as take pressure off the interior of the offensive line, Borges will have to use screen passes extensively.

While the Spartan linebackers are some of the best in the conference, the team's defensive line is suspect save William Gholston, who you know about. The starting DTs senior Anthony Rashad White and sophomore James Kittridge are non-factors. They try to play much like Michigan's defensive tackles: consume as many offensive linemen as possible and give your linebackers a chance to make tackles. Sophomore strongside defensive end Marcus Rush is good-not-great. He's what you want out of a strongside defensive end: holds up against the run, bats down passes at the line of scrimmage, and occasionally gets into the backfield.

Then of course there's Gholston, a pass-rush extraordinaire who has never been very impressive against Michigan/Taylor Lewan. Gholston has 5 TFLs but only one sack this season. Add in 4 PBUs and a forced fumble and his statistical profile fills out a bit. Ace at MGoBlog is down on Gholston:

If there's a weak point on this defense, it's—wait for it—WDE William Gholston, a quarterfinalist for the Lombardi Award based entirely on reputation. He's been benched at times this season for redshirt freshman Joel Heath. There's a reason for this: Gholston can chase plays down from the backside and bat down passes at the line, but if teams run right at him he gets buried regularly

At 6'7", 278 lbs, Gholston is pretty wiry, but he's still a terror in passing situations. Also, excellent backside pursuit is the kind of thing that can destroy an option running game or a hesitant running back (Fitz Toussaint). If Lewan can handle Gholston like he has the last two years, Michigan could dominate this defense, but with lingering injuries to Lewan, that may be a problem.

In the secondary, Darqueze Dennard is one of the better cover corners in the Big Ten and could present some problems for Michigan's receivers getting open. However, he'll likely be tasked with covering Devin Gardner who is a good six inches taller than him.

Defense vs. Michigan State

OK, so, Le'Veon Bell. I will say this now and you will believe me later: Le'Veon Bell is not a great running back. At 6'2", 244 lbs, he's a moose, but he doesn't have the complementary speed to make him truly dangerous. He can occasionally (occasionally) make people miss in space, but otherwise, his running style is to make contact a yard beyond the line of scrimmage and rumble forward for 3 yards. You can blame his offensive line, if you want, but power running backs, regardless of their offensive line, should probably average more than 3.8 YPC against Central Michigan. Combined with a shoddy offensive line, Bell will remind you more of a third-string Wisconsin running back than similar body types from squads like Alabama.

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, MSU's offense is pretty remedial, led of course by the rushing attack of Bell. MSU ranks 84th in rushing offense, 59th in passing offense, and 102nd in scoring. There are plenty of reasons that the offense struggles, but it starts with the Spartans' makeshift offensive line. Starting right tackle Fou Fonoti and center Travis Jackson have each gone down for the season with injuries. Another important injury is to starting tight end Dion Sims who was the team's leading receiver when he went down with a sprained ankle and helped get push in the running game for a mediocre offensive line. On MSU's first snap, they could be starting two redshirt freshman, two sophomores, and a fifth-year senior on their offensive line.

However, Michigan State's offensive line has been a mess the last two years and each season, the Spartans have found a way to grind Michigan's front seven to dust and protect their quarterback. Though I hate this kind of reasoning, I'm glad to see Kirk Cousins go because he was one of those guys that Just Wins against Michigan. Andrew Maxwell may get the same kind of protection that Cousins got against Michigan's defenses, but he doesn't have the kind of consistency or accuracy that Cousins did. Maxwell has a lively arm but not a lot of touch and is highly erratic. He's completing only 54.3% of his passes this season and averaging only 6.28 YPA. Throw in just 6 TDs to 4 INTs and you have the makings for a not great QB. This isn't pressure-induced, either; MSU ranks 40th in sacks allowed.

Perhaps the biggest hindrance to MSU's offense is the lackluster group of wide receivers. No longer is Keshawn Martin running jet sweeps around the edges of the defense or BJ Cunningham getting open everywhere. Though Keith Mumphrey leads the Spartans in receptions and receiving yards, the only threat is freshman Aaron Burbridge, who at 6'1" is not the Michael Floyd pterodactyl type that Michigan's secondary struggles against. Expect MSU to try and take a few uncharacteristic deep shots to Burbridge with JT Floyd in coverage, but unless Maxwell is dropping those in his lap, Michigan's secondary will just have to concern itself with underneath hitch routes and crossing patterns.

How Michigan's defensive line fares against this depleted front of MSU will determine the game. Against the run, expect Quinton Washington and Will Campbell the continue the dominance they showed against Illinois. Tightening running lanes and keeping offensive lineman at the line of scrimmage will allow the linebackers to hit and swarm Bell. When MSU drops back to pass, I actually expect Michigan to blitz a lot less than they have in the past. With a lackluster group of wide receivers and a mediocre offensive line, the defense will be able to rely on coverage sacks rather than getting pressure with linebackers. This also helps defend against MSU's reliance on tight ends in the passing game, flooding underneath zones with linebackers.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? The combination of Maxwell and MSU's receivers are not a threat to Michigan's secondary, the Spartan offensive line is once again shaky, and Bell doesn't have the home-run power to get Michigan into an uncomfortable situation offensively. If the defensive linemen continue to allow the linebackers to make plays, Michigan should be able to shut down MSU's offense.

When Michigan has the ball, testing the edges of the Spartans' defense will be key to opening running lanes and getting Denard time in the pocket to throw. Jet sweeps and bubble screens should keep MSU honest while the rest of Michigan's base offense should be enough to march down the field.

How does Michigan State win? The offensive line has to play its best game of the season for them to give Maxwell time in the pocket and the receivers time to get open. Le'Veon Bell will need to show that he's more than a 3 yards and a cloud of dust star and force Michigan's linebackers to commit fully to the run. This will open up passing lanes off of play action.

Shutting down Michigan's offense will be harder for the Spartans. MSU's linebackers need to return on their potential and Narduzzi's blitzes will need to generate turnovers. MSU can help their cause by finding a way to stop Denard on the inverted veer and forcing Toussaint to make Michigan's rushing yards.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 60% (I said this before the season and I'm sticking with it)

Final prediction. Denard's rushing totals take a major hit in this game, but Toussaint finally finds some lanes to run through. MSU understands the threat of Denard's legs and have probably gamplanned to stay home on him on all option plays. There will be a fumble generated on a linebacker blitz against an option play. Also, we'll see the return of Denard's back-foot heaves that end serendipitously, mostly thrown to Devin Gardner who makes a few astonishing catches in traffic.

On the other side of the ball, MSU won't be able to get rolling all game. Michigan's linebackers completely shut down Bell who averages ~3 YPC. Maxwell, meanwhile, will have a higher completion percentage than you'd expect but also throws two costly interceptions.

Saturday proves to still be relatively low-scoring, however. Both teams stall out just outside of field goal range a few times and there is at least one missed field goal. Michigan State 9 - Michigan 20

Progress Report: The defense

Previously: The offense

Defensive Tackle

Grade: A

No position on Michigan's depth chart caused more consternation preseason than the defensive tackle position. Options consisted of: a middling senior (Campbell), OL convert (Washington), DE convert (black), redshirt sophomore who hadn't seen any playing time (Richard Ash), or an oversized true freshman (Ondre Pipkins).

What this team needs from Campbell is an every-down nose tackle/3-tech DT that can hold up against the run and generate nominal pressure against the pass. Having a penetrating DT the likes of Martin is a luxury, not a necessity for great defenses. The pass rush from the defensive line should be generated primarily by the defensive ends (about which more later), not the inside. If Campbell can stay gap sound and hold his ground against double teams on the run, Michigan's experienced linebackers should be able to make the proper reads and tackle...

Because [Washington]'s going to be a starter, the coaches have been pumping him up throughout camp, praising his abilities. At 6'4", 300 lbs, he won't be much of a slasher, but he may be able to hold his ground much like Campbell. As a position switch, leverage and technique remain a concern, but if he can stay sound in the middle, Michigan should remain stout against the run and rely on blitzes and the defensive ends for pass rush.

Six games later, Michigan's defensive tackles may be the second-best unit on the defense.

Quinton Washington is a runaway candidate for most-improved player on Michigan's roster and perhaps in the conference. Washington's (and Will Campbell's) contributions have been a little harder to quantify, though: through six games, Washington has marked 8 solo tackles, 10 assists, and 2 TFLs. His totals last year? Nine games played, one tackle. Obviously playing time is a factor here. Washington was backing up ironman Mike Martin (who, for reference, ended the season with 20 solo tackles, 44 assists, and 6 TFLs; Washington won't match those numbers, but the coaches have asked hi to play a different style of football), but even in his spot duty, Washington was a liability. Now, he's proven concerns about his technique unfounded and has been exactly what Michigan needs: a strong body in the middle of the formation that can get push against guards and hold up to double teams, allowing linebackers to make plays.

The other pleasant surprise this year has been the development of Will Campbell into a similar immovable force on the defensive line. Campbell's 2012 stat line is similar to Washington's: 9 solo tackles, 9 assists, 1 TFL, 1 sack (he tallied 5 tackles, 9 assists, 2.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks in 2011). Like Washington, Campbell will never be the slashing nose tackle/3-tech that Mike Martin was. What he has done is become a reliable interior lineman who holds up to double teams and allowed those the linebackers behind him to fill the gaps.

One of the reasons Michigan's defensive line has been so successful is because of Greg Mattison's reliance on slants. Campbell and Washington have both proven to have good first steps playside on slants enabling them to cut into the backfield. These slants have also produced simplified reads for the linebackers to clean up plays on the backside.

The defensive tackle position has seen a lot of rotation this season. In nickel packages/passing situations, Craig Roh and Jibreel Black have assumed the DT positions. And to give the starters a blow, Ondre Pipkins has been rotating onto the field with regularity, especially in the last few games. Pipkins has returned middling results, occasionally showing the ability to hold up to double teams and get push off the ball, but also being blown back on various run plays. Defensive tackles take time to develop and Pipkins will be a project.

Going Forward
This unit projects to improve as the season progresses. Hoke and Mattison are magicians, of this, I'm sure. As Washington and Campbell see more snaps, their understanding of the defense and what an opposing offense is trying to do will only increase. With similar development from Pipkins and Richard Ash (maybe), the coaching staff will be looking toward the future with the defensive tackles.

Preview: Purdue 2012

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Michigan vs. Purdue

Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind

Kickoff 4:00 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-50s, 20% chance of rain

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Last week
Marshall 41 - Purdue 51. With 1/3 of Purdue's Big Ten division ineligible to win the conference title and Wisconsin coping poorly with losing Russell Wilson and most of their coaching staff, Purdue was the hot pick before the season to win the Leaders division and potentially the Big Ten. The results to date against three mediocre-to-terrible opponents (and Notre Dame) have been vintage Purdue. The Boilermakers pulled off a late game-tying touchdown against Notre Dame before allowing a game-winning 27-yard field goal a little more than two minutes later. In addition to commanding performances against powerhouses Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Michigan, last week Purdue managed to hold off the Marshall Thundering Herd for a 51-41 win.

Despite Marshall's weak schedule (West Virginia, Western Carolina, Ohio, Rice, and Purdue), the pass-heavy squad still rank 60th in the nation in rushing yards per game, and were able to chalk up 95 yards on 23 carries (4.1 YPC) against Purdue. Meanwhile, Rakeem Cato dinked and dunked down the field and racked up 439 yards on 68 (!!!) passing attempts. Meanwhile, the Marshall defense is just as bad as you might expect when Purdue puts up 51 on a team: 98th in pass efficiency defense, 110th in rushing defense, and 120th in scoring defense.

Though Purdue led big early in the game, Marshall eventually cut the Boilermaker lead to 10 points early in the fourth quarter but wasn't able to completely close the gap. If you were looking for reasons why Purdue might be an actual contender in the Big Ten this year, last week's game doesn't offer much evidence.

Michigan: Bye week.

Offense vs. Purdue

Usually, I would put a picture of Denard here and say something like "It depends on how well Denard does", but the most important player on the field when Michigan has the ball will be Purdue defensive tackle Kawann Short. Short is a 6'3" penetrating defensive tackle who annihilated Notre Dame earlier this year and already has 4 sacks (tied for 20th in the country). While Denard's performance is still the crux of Michigan's offense, Short will largely be responsible for how this game plays out.

This puts a lot of pressure on Michigan's interior line, namely Elliott Mealer who will spend most of the game grappling with Short (or Bruce Gaston, who is also a load to handle). If Mealer's performances to date are any indication, Short is going to be trouble for this offense. We all know what happens when Denard gets pressure in his face. If Mealer, Patrick Omameh, and Ricky Barnum can't contain short, expect a repeat of Denard's Notre Dame performance: errant, back-foot throws and rushed decisions.

The way to slow down Short and the rest of the Purdue front line is with screens, which Al Borges fucking loves. Expect a lot of those tunnel screens to Jeremy Gallon and a few bubble screens that make you think Borges is changing his ways (hint: he's not). Otherwise, it will be par for the course: some inverted veer runs, high-variance vertical passing game, and plenty of under center stuff.

Purdue's defense is largely untested but might be good+. Notre Dame (Michigan's closest talent equivalent on Purdue's schedule) went 24/39 for 324 yards (8.3 YPC) through the air, but only managed 52 yards on 34 carries. You can thank Short for that kind of performance. Then again, the Irish only managed 3 YPC against Michigan, so it's more likely that Notre Dame's offense is terrible. Regardless, if Michigan is going to win this game, the interior line is going to need to play lots better than they did against Notre Dame and Denard will need to be significantly improved. The takeaway: be scared of Purdue's defensive tackles and basically no one else.

Defense vs. Purdue

With Robert Marve (likely) out with an ACL injury, the quarterbacking duties once again fall on the shoulder of Caleb TerBush. TerBush's statline for the season is very Purdue: 6.64 YPA, 7 TDs, 4 INTs, and 49 yards on 20 rushing attempts. When you think of Purdue, you think of TerBush.

All of that is not his fault, however. He's not working with very many weapons. Hey, remember that time that Roy Roundtree was kind of a "get" for Purdue and then Rich Rodriguez stole him and then he had a good season and then he reminded everyone why he was a Purdue commit in the first place? Yeah, well, Purdue's commits committed to and then attended Pudue, so, when thinking about this wide receiver crops, just think of Roy Roundtree minus the breakout season. Currently playing the role of Best Roundtree is Antavian Edison, who leads the team with 285 yards on 24 catches.

Carrying the rock primarily will be Akeem Shavers who is averaging 4.1 YPC on 58 attempts, but 11 players on Purdue's roster have carried the ball more than twice this year. Key to stopping Purdue's rushing game (which, for the record, does rank 32nd in the nation in yards per game) will be edge responsibility, per usual. No one on the Boilermaker roster is much of a gamechanger though. Michigan will have to contend with wide-receiver jet sweeps and probably a few option looks during the game, but this is the kind of straightforward, non-threatening rushing attack that Mattison should be able to shut down.

The good news for Michigan's defense is that the Notre Dame game was a revelation for the defensive line, though as mentioned above, Notre Dame's offense is probably not very good. If Will Campbell and Quinton Washington can build upon the performance they showed last week, the defense might not be as terrifying every week. The real players to watch, however, will be the linebackers. Purdue's short passing game and rushing attack will test Michigan's young linebackers.

Speaking of Purdue's passing attack, JT Floyd is going to have a good game. Last year, Floyd specialized in jumping short routes and being aggressive on dink-and-dunk teams. Though he's been a borderline liability this season, Floyd has a big bounce back game and returns to the aggressive, attacking corner Michigan fans came to love last year. Raymon Taylor, however, will probably be victimized a number of times tomorrow as his youth will lend itself to cushions that are too big and a few missed tackles on short routes.

Prediction
How does Michigan win. The key to winning this game is controlling Kawann Short. If Michigan's interior line can shut him down or at least limit his effectiveness, Denard should find plenty of time to find open receivers and running lanes. Stopping Short is just as critical in the running game. Fitz Toussaint has struggled all season, largely because Michigan's offensive line has been getting dominated. Getting Toussaint room to run and space in the backfield will be crucial.

Defensively, Floyd, Courtney Avery, and Taylor need to make sure tackles and break up some of Purdue's short passing routes. The Boilermakers will have some frustrating long drives, but key to stopping them is forcing penalties (on the shoulders of the defensive line) and breaking up a few short passes.

How does Purdue win. Kawann Short. If he plays to his potential, he should crush the Michigan offensive line, at which point, it's up to the Purdue secondary to pick off Denard's sure-to-be errant throws. Short will also disrupt the Michigan running game which hasn't been able to get off the ground all season.

Offensively for Purdue, they need TerBush to take care of the ball, complete everything underneath, and manage the game. TerBush doesn't have the arm or legs to really punish Michigan's defense, even when it becomes undisciplined. If he doesn't have any crucial mistakes this game, Purdue could find a way to march slowly down the field as Michigan struggles to get pressure on short drops.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 58.34%

Final prediction: It's hard being optimistic about this game given Short and Denard's most recent performance. Michigan's offense is going to stall a lot in this game. But I'm not sure that Purdue's offense will have much success. The over/under for this game is somewhere in the mid- to high-50s, which, if I were a betting man, I'd take the under. This is a low-scoring game with both quarterbacks making a number of mistakes. Short's strength and Michigan's interior line weaknesses actually dictate how this game goes, but Denard breaks a long run that ends up being the difference. Michigan 17 - Purdue 16.

Denarmageddon

#18 Michigan 6 - #11 Notre Dame 13
Preview

2012 was always going to be about Denard. For the last two years, Michigan has lived and died by his ability to break 86-yard touchdown runs or make the catastrophic mistake. In 2010, Rich Rodriguez redefined Michigan with a 6'0", 4-star "athlete" from Deerfield Beach, Florida, who led arguably the greatest offense Michigan has ever seen. Unfortunately, Rodriguez failed to understand that football was more than just scoring points, and as the defense and recruiting deteriorated, so did the program. Rodriguez was gone but regardless of who came to Michigan, they were going to live and die by the hand--and feet--of Denard.

Last year, while Al Borges fumbled to figure out what to do with Denard, the team stumbled to a surprising 11-2 record, but Borges quickly figured out what everyone else already knew: if Denard was on his game, Michigan had a chance to beat anyone. Unfortunately, as the season wore on, Denard's limitations in the new system became apparent: there weren't enough receivers spreading the field, complicating Denard's reads; he threw panicked jump balls off his back foot that were miraculously reeled in by breakout star Junior Hemingway; and his overall accuracy was still nowhere near elite levels.

Now, Hemingway is gone, Michigan's conference-best offensive line has been Swiss Cheesed by graduation, and Denard, despite being a senior in his second year of the system, has proven that he plateaued--two years ago. Saturday's game against Notre Dame was more frustrating than surprising, but it was a stark reminder of exactly what this team's limitations and weaknesses are. Given the proper system and personnel, Denard Robinson can be a great quarterback, but without that precise set of circumstances, Denard will never be better than the erratic, mechanic-flawed quarterback he was when he first took over under Rodriguez's direction. Denard's ceiling remains one of the highest of any player in the entire country, but the reason he'll never be an elite quarterback is because of how effortlessly he plunges to his basement.

Saturday epitomized everything that is wrong with this iteration of Michigan's team. Notre Dame was able to rush three and four linemen and still get pressure on Denard because the offensive line struggles in pass protection. Denard failed to read the flooded defensive zones and stared down his receivers, allowing the Irish defenders to jump the passing lanes. And the secondary, though it is coping with injures, was shredded by the mediocre passing attack of Tommy Rees (8/11 for 115 yards).

The silver lining: Michigan's defensive line looked improved over its previous performances, and the Big Ten is still so bad that Michigan may be able to challenge for the league title. But Michigan fans have been able to find a silver lining in every loss over the last two years: the defense can only get better or Denard can't throw four interceptions again or if Michigan had a decent kicker, they would have won. Eventually, those "if"s need to turn into wins, but with a team that caters to high variance, it feels like the silver lining will be the real story of 2012.

Bullets

• People are going to criticize Al Borges' play calling, but they probably shouldn't. Denard ran the ball 26 times and threw it 24. Those back-to-back-to-back-to-back interceptions from Denard were not caused by poor playcalling. With a depleted Notre Dame secondary, throwing the ball is the best option (Denard averaged only 3.5 YPC on 26 totes and Fitz Toussaint averaged 4.5 YPC on 13 carries)
• The concept that "Denard is most dangerous when he stands in the pocket" has to be bunk by this point. The problem with Denard sitting in the pocket (and this may be more a problem with the scheme) is that he's not waiting for a receiver to cut across the field through a hole in the defense. He's waiting for a receiver to run far enough downfield that he feels confident heaving it into single coverage. When's the last time Denard stood in the pocket and threw a pass over the middle to a crossing receiver? Hitting Odoms last year across the middle on fourth down against Nebraska (Ohio State?)?
• Silver lining: Despite turning the ball over 6 times in the game, Michigan's defense only allowed 13 points. That's an impressive turnout for any defense, but especially for one with so many question marks. Will Campbell and Quinton Washington looked great slicing into the backfield on slants but they were always just one step too slow to make a tackle for loss.
• I recently lived in Los Angeles and when Al Borges was announced as the offensive coordinator for Michigan, everyone told me the same thing: He's a really great OC but he often gets too smart for himself. The Vincent Smith interception was Borges getting too smart for himself.
• Play action, naked bootlegs are not working. They didn't work last year. They're not working this year. For the exact same reasons: the backside defenders are not committing to the run, instead playing contain on Denard and disregarding the handoff.
• JT Floyd being unable to jam a tight end split outside on the final drive of the game is a very JT Floyd thing to do. That was... distressing. He struggled all game.
• Raymon Taylor's interception was perfect. That's how you're supposed to play zone defense.
• Fitz Toussaint's pass blocking is terrible.
• This is an aside and I won't go on about it too long because that's not really my thing, but John Bacon's Detroit News article "Some Michigan fans can't appreciate brilliance of Denard Robinson" pissed me off when it was published. It's the kind of condescending article that assumes ignorance from the same people who are supposed to be reading his columns. It's pandering and passive aggressive and I wish Bacon treated his readers with more respect. Sure, Denard is a great talent, but pointing out obvious errors in his play is not some masochistic practice that Michigan fans take part in because they like being upset about things. This Notre Dame game happened and Denard's performance didn't surprise anyone who questioned his abilities as a passer.

Next Week
Michigan gets a bye next week before starting the Big Ten schedule against Purdue. This is as good a time as any to lick your wounds, reevaluate schemes, and get healthy. Posting next week might be slow (grad school beckons and a week off from blogging might allow me to get a jump on work due later in the semester). This week will be painful as I rewatch this game and break down a whole bunch of the game.

Will Campbell holding

Twice against Air Force, a play ended with a holding flag. The ref turns on his mic, "Holding," Woooo, "Number 73 of the defense." I had never heard of a defensive linemen getting called for holding on a running play before and since I'm not watching the defensive tackles for potential holds, I didn't see it during the game. But it turns out, Campbell basically tackled the Air Force linemen to stop them from releasing to the second level.

On this play, the hold didn't make a difference, but I would venture to say that the Air Force coaches ask the refs to look for this before the game begins because I hadn't ever seen this called before.

That's all. I was confused in real time and assumed other people wanted to see it again as well.

Video

Hesitant linebackers versus Bama

One of the biggest concerns about Michigan's linebackers coming into this season was their continued indecisiveness in 2011. By not making quick reads, the linebackers allow lead blockers and offensive linemen to make their blocks downfield, opening cutback lanes for running backs. Much like breaking in Schofield at right tackle, this was the wrong game to remedy those linebacker issues.

Early in the game, before Michigan was down by double-digits, Alabama had a rare second-and-long. They lined up in a one-back, two-WR set, with an H-back and tight end on the strongside of the field. Michigan is in it's 4-3 under with Jordan Kovacs rolled into the box on the weakside of the field. (The second view below gives a much better perspective on what happens.)

As the ball is snapped, Will Campbell and Quinton Washington both slant to their right into the strongside of the field. This allows them to cut into the backfield but also gives a free release to the Alabama center. Everyone relevant to the play has started to move except Kenny Demens (highlighted in red).

As you can see, Washington and Campbell have now slanted toward the backside of the play and are being pushed that way by Alabama's guards. The B-gap on the weakside of the field is wide open for Desmond Morgan (#44) to fill (the free-releasing center is responsible for blocking Morgan). The Bama H-back (#31) is headed upfield to block Demens who will be responsible for the cutback lane.

Morgan quickly fills the B gap as the Bama center prepares to seal him to the outside. Washington and Campbell have slanted past the play but have forced the Bama running back (Jalston Fowler) into a tightening B gap. It is Demens' responsibility to fill this hole but as you can see below, the H-back is close to blocking him.

Before Fowler makes it out of the backfield, the H-back has been able to run out of the backfield and across the formation to engage Demens who should be filling the cutback hole. Demens is now being pushed out of the play (red).

Demens has now been pushed to the ground opening a huge hole for Fowler to run through. He'll be tackled 14 yards downfield.

Video

Takeaway

The only thing that gives me pause on this play is the slant by Campbell and Washington, but I think they played this properly and were instructed to slant to the strongside. Both got deep into the backfield and eventually pushed out of the play, but I don't think that was responsible for this result. If they're slanting to the strongside of the play, it's the responsibility of Morgan and Demens to fill the gaps behind them. Morgan does so, but Demens hesitates as the play starts, allowing time for the Alabama H-back to push him beyond his assignment. This kind of thing was happening all game as pulling linemen and lead blockers were able to get to the point of attack a step ahead of Michigan's linebackers, pushing them out of the way.

I'm singling out Demens here only because this play stood out to me, but this happened to Demens, Morgan, and Ross all game. But this continues a trend that we saw last year from Demens. His first step is usually a beat after it should be. In this instance, he needs to know that Campbell and Washington are slanting to the strongside. If Alabama runs into that slant and is able to make yards, good for them, but something spectacular has to happen. But a strongside slant from both DTs will naturally open up lanes on the weakside of the play to be filled by the middle and weakside 'backers. Demens seems unsure of the structure of this defensive playcall and is too hesitant to be effective.

You come at the king, you best not miss

#8 Michigan 14 - #2 Alabama 41
Preview

In the second quarter, with Michigan trailing 24-0 and backed up inside their 10-yard line, Kirk Herbstreit was talking about Michigan's non-existant running game. The camera panned up to Al Borges in the coordinator's booth. After relaying the upcoming 3rd down play, Borges shook his head in disbelief and rubbed his face. It was the unmistakeable look of someone who had run out of answers, like working your way through a maze and finding only brick walls.

The problem wasn't Borges' schemes being out flanked. The problem was an offensive line that got pushed into the backfield on every play. It was a quarterback with dysfunctional throwing mechanics unable to hit receivers. It was receivers unable to get separation from their defensive counterparts. Alabama is a great team, but they are not an unbeatable team. There were opportunities to attack them in this game that Michigan simply missed, usually because of performance errors more than schematic inefficiencies.

No one really expected Michigan to win this game; 14-point Vegas spreads are not a mistake. Blogging for the last three seasons, I've been able to explain away most of Michigan's losses: walk-on quarterbacks, untimely turnovers, terrible special teams, unsound schemes. There was always something you could take from the games and say, "If we just did _____ better, we would have won." After watching Alabama dismantle this team, the only feeling I have is frustration: Michigan is just not as good as Alabama. Our team has worse players. The Alabama offensive and defensive lines beat the Michigan offensive and defensive lines. Alabama's linebackers are always in the right spot and safeties fly downhill to blow up option plays in the backfield. AJ McCarron can complete downfield passes.

Blame oversigning and Nick Saban and the SEC for allowing shady recruiting practices. Sure, those are the reasons that Alabama has better players. But regardless of why they're better, Michigan is operating with sub-par talent and will continue to, relative to the national powerhouses, for another few years until their oversigning reserves drain out. So it's frustrating watching your team getting beaten by superior athletes and knowing that it'll be years until you can actually compete with them again.

The game itself played out almost exactly as expected: Alabama pulled away early, Denard struggled to find a rhythm, and the Tide won the game on the ground. Michigan's defensive line held up relatively well. Campbell and Washington took on double teams and didn't get pushed into the secondary, but Michigan's linebackers were outright terrible. Desmond Morgan was pulled after the second (?) Alabama drive in favor of freshman James Ross who also found himself out of position and over-pursuing plays. Kenny Demens is still only able to move in one direction on any given play. And Jake Ryan, who was victimized on a play-action TD pass, was a non-factor as Alabama continuously attacked the middle and weakside of the Michigan defense.

Denard had one of his worst games as a starter but for almost no reason. He was only sacked once and had plenty of time to stand in the pocket and throw, but his mechanics killed his accuracy. Denard stepped into approximately one throw all game, and it ended as a 71-yard touchdown strike to Jeremy Gallon. But on most of his throws, Denard would square his feet and heave the ball downfield. Denard's other major downfall: he was staring down Devin Gardner all game and tried forcing the ball to him rather than taking what the defense offered. While most of his forced throws to Gardner ended in PBUs, one of them ended as a pick-6.

So Michigan lost to a team that's much better than them. Chatter after the game implied that Alabama would have a chance to run the table this year, but there's no way they don't lose at least one or two games. From here, the road only gets easier for Michigan. Playing Air Force and UMass in the next two weeks will be a good primer for the Big Ten season. This team should still challenge for a Big Ten title, but any dreams that they might be one of the nation's elite--given health--have gone out the window.

AP Photo/LM Otero

Bullets

• Despite it being the opening game of the season, I think it's fair to say that Senior Denard is not a robotic, laser-passing Junior Denard. At this point, Denard is what he is. That'll win Michigan a lot of games this year, but against elite defenses, he's still going to struggle.
• No, Denard did not get enough carries. His carries wouldn't have gone anywhere either because the Alabama defensive line was in the backfield immediately.
• Devin Gardner is big and fast but is a horrible route runner. He will mix spectacular plays with missed opportunities because of poor routes.
• Bubble screens! For whatever reason, Al Borges changed his opinion of bubble screens. Michigan threw two in the game and they were two of the more successful plays the team ran.
• People are really excited about Dennis Norfleet because... I'm not really sure why. He looks fast, but this game didn't inspire much. He has potential.
• Elliott Mealer ended up at center for much of the game. I'm not really sure who was playing left guard, but the line seemed coherent. They weren't able to get any push against Alabama's defensive front, but that won't be the case throughout the season.
• Every time Greg Mattison blitzed, Saban had the perfect play to counter-act it. Aside from the first defensive series, not much of what the defense did made a difference.
• Michigan forced a three-and-out on the first possession because Alabama ran to the strongside of the field, which Michigan stopped for one yard. After that, they ran almost exclusively at Desmond Morgan and Kenny Demens up the middle and to the weakside.
• The Countess injury didn't have much of an impact on this game, but it might going forward. Courtney Avery got burned when he slipped on a double move, but otherwise, he was indistinguishable from any other corner.
• Kovacs and Thomas Gordon both got beaten in the running game by poor angles and arm tackles. So did everyone else though.
• The whole defensive line, while lacking playmakers, performed well.

Next Week
Michigan looks to get their season back on track next week against Air Force. The Falcons run wishbone option football, which is a little worrysome given the linebacker play and lack of D-line talent. Expect some long runs from Air Force due to poor angles, but the defense should be able to contain a pedestrian attack. Offensively, Denard and Fitz Toussaint should get the team moving.