Preview: Notre Dame 2013

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#14 Notre Dame vs. #17 Michigan

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor

Kickoff 8:00 pm EST

ESPN

Forecast: Low-70s, 30% chance of rain 

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Last Week
Temple 6 - #14 Notre Dame 28. Notre Dame welcomed the Temple Wet Owls to South Bend last week and won in marginally convincing fashion. Temple left 7 points on the field, missing two field goals and having an extra point blocked. Meanwhile, the Irish put up 14 points in the first five minutes of the game, and were only able to punch it in twice for the rest of the game. Worse still, those first two touchdown drives relied on huge plays (45, 32, 51, 32), of which the team only managed one more (a 66-yard pass for the team's third touchdown). Notre Dame's inability to put together sustained drives could have been anticipated after the loss of starting QB Everett Golson, but against a team like Temple, the offense should still be able to move the ball.

The vaunted Irish defensive line failed to impress as they were expected to; the Owls managed 4.5 YPC on 29 rushes. ND did keep junior QB Connor Reilly to a 50% completion rate and only 5.0 YPA. Then again, this marked Reilly's first game action, so a rough outing was expected.

Offense vs. Notre Dame

John T. Greilick | Detroit News

No matchup will be more important than how Michigan's offensive line manages Notre Dame's defensive front. The names to know are Louis Nix III (aka Irish Chocolate, apparently) and Stephon Tuitt. Nix anchors the defense, acting as a black hole in the middle of the defensive line. At 350+ pounds, Nix presents problems for the inexperienced interior of the offensive line. MGoBlog postures that Michigan introduced the zone stretch into the offense in order to attack Notre Dame's defensive ends rather than trying to push Nix off the line.

Flanking Nix at defensive end will be Tuitt, a havoc-sower for all teams that don't feature Taylor Lewan. Tuitt finished 2012 with a team-leading 12 sacks, and still stands at over 300 pounds, making him difficult to attack in the run game (unlike, say, Frank Clark). Michigan remains uniquely prepared to handle Tuitt with two senior offensive tackles, including the best left tackle in the country. The third lineman in Bob Diaco's 3-4 defense is sophomore Sheldon Day, a nondescript defensive end who should be a non-factor in this game.

Notre Dame's only other defender of note is senior outside linebacker Prince Shembo, who finished the 2012 season with 7.5 sacks, 21 solo tackles, and 27 assists. Shembo is pitch perfect for Diaco's aggressive, blitzing defense, and will challenge Michigan's running backs to block him on blitzes (of which, Fitz Toussaint did poorly in week one).

Concerns about moving the ball against Notre Dame have been tempered following a subpar performance against Temple. But as we've become all too aware, Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio can look awful all season and still drag Michigan through the mud. Non-Gardner runs will be touch and go throughout the game. Nix and Tuitt are going to beat Michigan's offensive line a few times. Dispersing those negative plays across multiple drives and recovering quickly from them will be important if Michigan will produce multiple, sustained drives.

Because Notre Dame's defense relies heavily on blitzes, Gardner's scrambling could pay dividends. His ability to get out of the pocket may slow the Irish front seven, allowing Michigan to run from their base offense more easily.

In the secondary, Notre Dame is unexceptional. If nothing else, the Irish defensive backs have experience, boasting two seniors, a junior, and a sophomore. Most of the turnovers that the secondary produces are a function of Notre Dame's front seven getting pressure. Once again, blitz pickups from Michigan's backs will allow Garnder the space and time to find receivers downfield. As we've already seen this year, getting traffic in Gardner's face can end in turnovers.

The man behind the curtain, as always, is Al Borges. Michigan's offense against Central Michigan was vanilla. During fall camp, we saw plenty of footage of Michigan running the inverted veer and other spread concepts which were largely absent in the opener. I fully expect Michigan's offense to have a little more pizzaz against Notre Dame. What that entails, I'm not sure, but a few more zone reads are likely, as are play action off of those.

Defense vs. Notre Dame

Good news everyone! Tommy Rees is back. In spite of his perpetual derpitude, Rees set his career record for passing yardage against Temple and has been serviceable+ against Michigan in his career. But on the quarterback fear index, Rees ranks just above a half-slurped Go-Gurt. With Everett Golson getting booted from the team, this season was always going to be a reclamation project on offense. But it might be worse than originally thought, in spite of a solid performance against Temple. Rees' long passes last week came on a wide-open post route with no safety help, a bubble screen, a wide-open corner route with no safety help, and a wide-open seam route to a rumbling tight end. He has not developed into junior Chad Henne. This is just Tommy Rees.

Golson wasn't the only loss from last year's offense. Cierre Wood graduated and junior Theo Riddick entered the draft early, stripping Notre Dame of their top two rushers from a season ago. In week one, Notre Dame's running backs were not great. Nominal starter, junior George Atkinson, squeaked out only 34 yards on 8 carries--one of which was a 14-yarder. Junior Amir Carlisle had the highest YPC (68 yards on 8 carries; 9.7 YPC) but that number is bolstered by his 45-yarder that was handed to him after Temple's linebackers blitzed with no regard for running lanes.

On the outsides, Notre Dame's wide receivers do not intimidate. Gone are the Michael Floyds and Golden Tates of recent years. TJ Jones returns for his senior year after averaging 13 yards per catch last year. Against Temple, Jones had six receptions for 138 yards. He is your prototypical slot receiver and will be the recipient of many screen passes. He has good speed and will need to be tackled in the open field often; how Courtney Avery and Thomas Gordon handle Jones could go a long way to determining how this game goes. But other than Jones, the Irish receivers do not intimidate.

Michigan's ability to get pressure on passing downs with only four men against Central showed promise for this matchup. Notre Dame is going to spread the field on almost all downs, so to avoid big plays, Michigan will need safety valves for when man coverage invariable goes wrong. If Michigan's front four can generate a pass rush, that will help alleviate a lot of the stress on Michigan's safeties.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Notre Dame's defense didn't overwhelm Temple, which bodes well for Michigan's chances. Michigan's offensive line looks improved from week one and the team averages 5.5 YPC. Notre Dame's blitzes are occasionally effective, but more often than not, Gardner is able to scramble out of danger and either pass or throw for significant yardage. Defensively, Michigan's front four completely dominates the Notre Dame offensive line and the Irish can never get their running game started. One or two big passing plays from Tommy Rees are all that keep Notre Dame alive, but Michigan dominates the game throughout.

How does Notre Dame win? Nix and Tuitt look more like they did last year than in week one. Michigan's young offensive line struggles to block Notre Dame's pressure and the team averages only 3.8 YPC. The Irish blitzes also disrupt Garder who makes bad decisions and bad throws, tossing multiple interceptions. When Notre Dame has the ball, Michigan's young secondary struggles to contain Brian Kelly's spread attack and Tommy Rees avoids mistakes while throwing three touchdowns. Michigan's front four can't generate a pass rush and has to dedicate linebackers and safeties to the pass rush, opening things up on the back end.

Arbitrary chances that Michigan wins? 78.492%

Final Prediction. Week one matchups are only a single data point, but they can be illuminating. For example, we know that Michigan State's offense is going to be unwatchable this season. Michigan and Notre Dame's respective games leave very little doubt about which team is better right now. Notre Dame's offense struggled against a lowly Temple squad in ways that didn't look to be week one jitters. With an offense that appears to be boom or bust, the Irish are going to struggle to score against a Michigan team that has been stout against the big play for two years now. Rees will complete a 3rd and 18-ish that will infuriate Michigan fans, but Notre Dame's big plays work only toward self preservation. Tuitt winds up being a non-factor in the game, but Nix cuts a number of Michigan drives short by setting up third and long situations. Michigan's run game as a whole doesn't look devastating, but Gardner shakes off the game one interceptions and accounts for 350 yards. Notre Dame 17 - Michigan 27

No Surprises

Central Michigan 9 - Michigan 59

Courtney Sacco | AnnArbor.com

Michigan had an uneventful offseason, at least with regards to recent history. There were no questions about the starting quarterback, no concerns over walk-ons, and the incoming recruiting class was viewed as depth chart fodder rather than necessary reinforcements. Such is the arrival of Brady Hoke. So Michigan trounces Central Michigan in the season opener without any notable injuries or hiccups, and we all shrug. Well, most people shrug and I get panicky about the offensive line.

The box score says domination: 242 rushing yards on 47 carries (5.1 YPC), 221 passing yards on 21 attempts (10.5 YPA), 10 of 15 on third down conversions, and CMU averaged only 3.7 yards per play. But, like Holly Anderson's piece on Jadaveon Clowney's uninspiring 2013 debut says, "You already know that Week 1 college football games aren't all that useful in the discerning sports fan's quest to consume actual, compelling football … It's fun to be able to take one data point and draw a line to anywhere."

Per usual, my data points tends toward fear. My confidence in Greg Mattison, Brady Hoke, and the defensive unit could not be higher. Two seasons of transforming the scraps Rich Rodriguez left on the defensive side of the ball belies any doubt in this coaching staff defensively. Saturday served as confirmation of this belief: short the team's most impactful starter (Jake Ryan), the defense smothered CMU on short fields surrendered because of turnovers and never allowed a drive to exceed 59 yards (that one ending in a 33-yard field goal).

The concern comes from the other side of the ball, in spite of the team posting 59 points on 12 possessions; one punt and three interceptions were the only drives that Michigan came up empty. The game started inauspiciously as Devin Gardner threw a Denardian interception: he determined where to throw the ball before the play had started. His second giveaway was similar: he saw single coverage on the outside with Jeremy Gallon and decided to throw it regardless that Gallon was blanketed. While on the subject, that Gallon couldn't get on top of a CMU cornerback on a fly route does not bode well for his presence as the team's primary deep threat.

Those turnovers were disappointing but not the primary cause for concern: the offensive line's continued inability to get push on under-center runs. Michigan's running game remains either inconsistent or ineffectual. After one game with a new crop of interior lineman, speculating either with certainty is fruitless, but following last year's debacle, optimism (at least around these parts; shock!) is slim. There are caveats for the stumbling running game. Some of it appears schematic: Michigan ran into an overloaded defense several times when Gardner should have checked into a weakside run at the line of scrimmage. That could change as the season progresses. But other issues, such as Gallon's inability to get over the top of CMU's defense, allowing the opposing safeties to creep into the box, may be longer lasting. Or, this could have been the first game-time action from a new crop of interior line starters that just hasn't gelled together yet. But where's the fun in that? Largely irrelevant data point --> Doom.

There were clear positives--pass blocking, Derrick Green, the return of Toussaint, CMU's 2.3 YPA rushing on 29 carries, and Devin Funchess to name a few--but those were expected (perhaps known) before the season. The real insights from this game come from the mistakes, which I'm confident did not escape Hoke, Borges, and Mattison, and should be rectified, or at least patched up, in short order.

Bullets

• My friend and I had a bet on what pass Shane Morris would throw his first interception. He said the third pass, I said the fifth. I won. A relatively uneventful debut from Morris, but it's obvious both where his upside stands and what his current flaws are.
• Toussaint turned in a decent game but was still not the dominating back that we saw in 2011. He had few holes to work with, but made the most of what he was given. If the interior line can't get itself together, Toussaint's season will look more like 2012 than 2011. Also of note, his pass blocking was atrocious in this game.
• Michigan's defense acquitted itself well as a whole, but the zone passing defense proved problematic (perhaps expected because both starting safeties were out). CMU's greatest offensive success came by throwing intermediate routes that the underneath defenders didn't sink on and the safeties weren't reading quickly enough. Northwestern looms large.
• Frank Clark. Man. Lane integrity. Please. Otherwise, keep being fast.
• Jibreel Black was a non-factor in the running game and made a few penetrating moves in the pass game. I don't know how his skillset will matchup against teams with heftier front lines, but for now, concerns about his size as the starting 3-tech are squashed.
• It may be prudent for Michigan not to put a punt returner on the field. Just rush 11 guys at the punter and don't worry about getting any return yards. The returner isn't getting anything meaningful on rugby punts anyway and the team avoids Dennis Norfleet fumbling the ball on the 10 yard line.
• I believe (perhaps hope) that Borges kept most of his tricks in the bag in week one. With Notre Dame coming to town next week, having a whole package of plays they haven't seen yet could pay dividends.

Next Week
Michigan gets Notre Dame under the lights. You know what happened last year, but against Temple, the Irish did not overwhelm. Temple > CMU, but Michigan's Week 1 > ND's Week 1. With Tommy Rees back under center for the Irish, and the loss of Notre Dame's top-two rushers from last year, Michigan's defense should smother Notre Dame, enabling the offense to slog through the game picking up points when they can.

A ray of hope

Iowa 17 - #21 Michigan 42

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

I'm supposed to have something poetic to say about Denard Robinson, but Saturday's game left me cold. Denard lining up as a running back is not how this is supposed to go, not in college football where he turns dropped snaps into 43-yard touchdowns and made an entire fan base invent a whole new vocabulary to grapple with what he was doing on the field. For the last three years, Michigan fans have held their collective breath as Denard did whatever he could to get the ball 10 yards further toward the endzone. We usually exhaled pleasantly surprised.

The lasting image of Saturday's game for me, however, will be Fitz Toussaint's gruesome broken leg. In real time, there wasn't much to see but the slow-motion replay was one of those scenes they'll never show again and that I unfortunately saw before I could cover my eyes. Those are the kinds of injuries that end careers. For a player who has spent the last 11 games unsuccessfully fighting off tacklers in the backfield, in one of the first times all season he gets to the light of day and that happens. It all just seems unfair.

Toussaint has another season if he's able to recover, a luxury that's not afforded to Denard who lost his season to a similarly unfair albeit less horrifying injury. Denard's last game in the Big House felt like a dud though, and the heckling he'll get from Ohio State fans won't even be deserving of a his success. He'll be on the sideline rather than letting the "boos" rain down on him on the field. Denard Robinson's final game in a Michigan jersey will be in a half-filled stadium somewhere far away from Ann Arbor.

Of course Jordan Kovacs and Will Campbell and Roy Roundtree also touched the banner for their final time in maize and blue and unlike Denard, it's unlikely any of these guys will sniff the NFL. Were it not for Denard the last three years, this would probably go down as one of the most forgettable senior classes in Michigan history. Recruited by Rich Rodriguez, he specialized in finding the diamonds in the rough, of which none ever developed at Michigan. Three straight classes of pedestrian talent held together by Denard's heroics.

I think that's why Denard became so beloved. Put aside his smile or the fact that he's a talent that Michigan had never seen before. He was a ray of hope during the program's most devastating three years. Were it not for Denard, Michigan's abhorrent record during his tenure would have been even worse. There's a reason that there are multiple instances of Denard's first snap on YouTube with 60,000-plus views. He was Michigan football over the last year, both figuratively and literally.

With only two games left, Denard will be unceremoniously sent off to the NFL where his career will probably be a flash in the pan, not unlike his time at Michigan.

Importance of Michigan's reach block

There's something very wrong with the offensive line, as we've come to realize over the last few games, but a few plays against Northwestern were particularly perplexing. The play below will make you yearn for David Molk and his unique skillset, but it will also make you wonder what exactly the offensive line staff is teaching this unit.

Michigan comes out in its new heavy I-formation, which features Mike Kwiatkowski on one side of the formation and Devin Funchess aligned as an H-back on the other side. This is a zone run left (maybe; I'll discuss this later):

The critical block on this play is for Elliott Mealer to reach the defensive tackle that's aligned off his left shoulder and seal him to the inside. Northwestern comes out in a 4-3 that looks more like a 4-4 with the backside cornerback rolled into the box because he has no one to cover.

Devin Funchess motions across the formation to the playside.

As the ball is snapped, the line blocks left, but the playside defensive tackle gets immediately inside Mealer. The other big problem is Ricky Barnum, whose first step is backward. He is now running behind Taylor Lewan instead of doubling the playside defensive end and allowing Lewan to release upfield.

Funchess comes out of the backfield to block the middle lineback, ignoring the the LB who was rolled up to the line of scrimmage on the playside (that's fullback Joe Kerridge's assignment). Mealer and Barnum are now two yards behind the line of scrimmage. Lewan, who was expecting help from Barnum (I think) is also being pushed into the backfield. This is before Gardner has even handed the ball off.

Toussaint has no choice but to try and bounce it outside...

...and it does not go well.

Video

The Takeaway
OK, so what actually happened here. I'm inclined to think this was a zone blocking scheme, but Barnum's first step leads me to believe this is a man blocking scheme. Here's what I think is happening: Barnum is not technically covered by a defensive tackle. Instead, that tackle is aligned in the playside A gap. If an offensive lineman isn't covered, he's instructed to pull toward the frontside, but in this instance, that requires Mealer reaches his block quickly and without any help.

The other problem with this blocking scheme actually happens on the backside. Patrick Omameh tries releasing to the second level but is engaged by the backside defensive tackle. At the same time, Michael Schofield tries to cut block the backside DT and should have been called for a chop block.

Other surprising aspects of this play: regardless of what the blocking scheme was, Taylor Lewan gets absolutely blown off the line of scrimmage.

I don't pretend to be an expert at offensive line schemes, but this seems untenable. I've watched this play upwards of 20 times and can't figure out what this line is doing. It's entirely possible that absolutely everyone gets beaten off the ball, but there just seems to be too much confusion for that to be the real cause. Mealer can't reach the playside defensive tackle, that much is clear. But what is Barnum's assignment? What is Omameh's assignment? Why is Schoefield the only one chop blocking? Side note: Why is he so bad at it? For all of the work that this staff has done with both sides of the ball, I can't understand why the offensive line looks so ill-prepared and confused.

Elliott Mealer, this has not been a good week

We saw yesterday how Elliott Mealer struggled to identify the proper defensive lineman to block on Devin Gardner's eventual interception. Unfortunately for Mealer, things didn't get much better throughout the day. One play in particular stood out even during the game: an I-formation run in which Gardner appeared to call an audible at the line of scrimmage, which, saywhatnow?

It's 2nd and 1 after Michigan's defense forced a punt following the Gardner interception. Michigan comes out in a traditional pro-set I-formation. Minnesota has stacked the box with nine players. Michigan will run the ball anyway, but that's not the real problem. Michigan will run a power running play (including a pulling lineman; Patrick Omameh) to the strongside of the field (bottom of the screen). Mealer has a defensive tackle lined up directly over him who he should block he up, especially because Omameh--to his right--is pulling across the formation. But...

...as the ball is snapped, Mealer totally ignores the defensive tackle (highlighted). Omameh has started to pull across the formation essentially leaving a wide-open hole for the DT to run through.

The defensive tackle is now running into Omameh, who isn't expecting contact (highlighted). Notice also that Taylor Lewan is also blocking the player that Mealer reached for, so Lewan, Mealer, and Ricky Barnum are all blocking one player.

By the time Gardner hands the ball off to Fitz Toussaint, Omameh has been pushed four yards behind the line of scrimmage by the unblocked defensive tackle....

... who runs over Toussaint in the backfield for a four-yard loss.

Video

The Takeaway
Elliott Mealer is not working out. Mealer has struggled all season, but it hasn't been quite as apparent until this game. I don't know how much of this performance falls on the shoulders of the coaching staff (Mealer looks totally unaware of his responsibilities) and how much is Mealer just failing to get the job done. I'm inclined to think the latter because of how well the coaching staff has done with everyone else. I had high hopes for Mealer this season as someone who was recruited by Carr and finally getting the chance to work in a system like that again, but he's clearly in over his head. Getting beaten by a defender is one thing, but Mealer doesn't even appear to know who he's supposed to be blocking. I don't know if Michigan has any other options at center this year without burning a redshirt, but it may be time to start considering all options (at least if Michigan is back in contention for the Big Ten title).

A quarterback by any other name...

Michigan 35 - Minnesota 13

Photos by Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

One week is a lot of time to prepare for something. I'm not frustrated or angry that Devin Gardner didn't play against Nebraska when Denard Robinson went down because for most of the season, Gardner has been primarily seeing snaps at receiver and the work he does put in at quarterback was probably just to make sure his throwing form didn't revert to his shot put motion from high school. Gardner's remarkable output on Saturday also carries one major caveat: Minnesota. Don't forget that last year, Minnesota was in contention for being the worst Big Ten football team in the history of the conference or that Michigan beat them 58-0. Whatever you think of Russell Bellomy, Michigan could have won this game with him under center.

However, Gardner showed something that he's been unable to produce during his time at Michigan: consistency. The first three drives of the game, spanning the entire first quarter, were vintage Gardner: 1/3 for 7 yards, 1 INT, and a sack for six yards. In the second quarter, though, Gardner settled down and found his rhythm, even throwing one of those scrambling, wide-open touchdown passes that Ohio State has gotten against Michigan since the dawn of time.

What was most impressive was the way in which Gardner looked suited for this offense. His passing motion was still janky, but he stood in the pocket and delivered passes more confidently and impressively than Denard has in two years. His ability to step into throws and deliver a pass, even in the face of pressure, showed marked improvement over what Michigan has gotten from Denard or what Gardner has shown to date.

Gardner looked like a Jim Tressel-led Terrelle Pryor: an athletic, tall quarterback being forced to play under center and make plays only when he's asked to while allowing the defense to carry the load. In this game, Gardner was able to do so, but this was against a Minnesota team that allowed 44 points to New Hampshire and 28 to Western Michigan and Purdue. Does Gardner's obvious improvement actually resemble a sustainable winning offense? That's debatable.

Al Borges should also come in for some praise, though Saturday's game does not bode well for the future of Denard in the shotgun. Forced to play a bit more conservatively, Borges put Gardner under center for much of the game, a move that actually seemed to work. Instead of running the throwback screen and one predictable running back iso from the I-formation, Borges opened up the offense and forced the Gopher defense to start reacting to play action and counter plays from under center. This looked like a more fully formed offense albeit one that Michigan fans didn't want to see until Shane Morris has taken over the reins.

Regarding the rest of this season, Gardner's performance on Saturday probably signifies a permanent move away from wide receiver. With a lingering injury to Denard--one that can seemingly knock him out of the game at any time--Gardner sitting in the wings will be important if Michigan wants to win close games like the one in Nebraska. The coaches hedged their bets at the beginning of the year. A senior Denard will be able to properly protect himself but he needs more dangerous wide receivers. Gardner proved not to be a great receiver and Denard suffered a fluke injury. Michigan still lost the game's you would expect them to lose (Alabama, Notre Dame) and one that may have gone the other with a better backup QB, and they didn't upset anyone because of Gardner's presence, but the move of Gardner to wide receiver was one we all thought should happen and looked promising enough that the coaches really shouldn't bear too much blame.

There's no quarterback controversy this year, though there will be one to start 2013. Expect a few more formations for Gardner as the season rolls on like the ones Borges installed last year. Until Denard is off campus, though, this is still his team.

Bullets

• Saturday was a weird day. Despite Michigan winning with a guy who hadn't played quarterback all season, it felt like a day full of losses. Notre Dame won because Pitt choked the game away and Michigan State lost because Mark Dantonio wanted 19 yards of field position instead of a chance to ice the game with a 4th and 2 from the Nebraska 39 (!!!). I want Notre Dame to lose because fuck Notre Dame, but Michigan State losing has a real impact on Michigan's chances to win the Big Ten. Mark Dantonio: you're stupid.
• Fitz Toussaint: still probably broken. If he can't get anything going against Minnesota, he probably won't get anything going all year. Excise his late-game 41-yard touchdown scamper (which was impressive, but again, against Minnesota) and Fitz had 29 yards on 12 carries. 
• If Denard had been playing quarterback in this game, the story this week would be about how well the wide receivers played. Those guys pulled in absolutely everything. Gardner sailed a few passes but not so high that the receivers couldn't pull them down.
• Jake Ryan: 5 tackles, 4 assists, 3 TFLs. I be like dang.
• Ryan may be Michigan's most impressive defensive player, but Quinton Washington is the most important. He is on his way to getting drafted in the late rounds next year if he keeps playing this well. You can tell immediately when Washington is off the field, and it seems like whenever he's inserted into the lineup again, he slashes into the backfield and causes havoc.
• Ondre Pipkins is still not ready for significant snaps, though it's good that the coaching staff is getting him on the field. He constantly gets pushed past the point of attack and out of plays. He has talent, but I am a little worried about him being a starter next year.
• If Michigan ever plays a team with an elite passing QB, they are in trouble. JT Floyd has been beaten badly the last few weeks only to watch passes sail out of bounds by a few yards. There are some cracks in the armor of Michigan's secondary that I fear a bowl opponent will attack.

Next Week
Michigan gets Northwestern at home. The Wildcats are coming off of a bye week but previously beat Iowa in a game that probably should have been more lopsided than the final score shows. Michigan has played a few option teams now and has managed to more or less hold their offenses in check. Northwestern is probably more varied than Nebraska, but their offense isn't as prolific. This should be a too-close-for-comfort win, but a win nonetheless, regardless of who's playing quarterback.

Preview: Michigan State 2012

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Michigan State vs. Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-50s, 20% chance of rain 

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MSU Last Week

Iowa 19 - MSU 16 (2OT). Andrew Maxwell, intent on bringing back Sparty No! threw a pick in the second half of double overtime to end the Spartans bid to beat inexplicably 4-2 Iowa. Le'Veon Bell had his best game of the season and finally looked like the dangerous running back he's rumored to be but still only managed 4.8 YPC (albeit on 29 carries). Andrew Maxwell is still an inexperienced, inconsistent quarterback that is most certainly not Kirk Cousins. Against Iowa, he threw 12/31 for 179 yards and 1 INT. Maxwell has a lively arm but accuracy is a major concern. The only MSU wide receiver that anyone ever needs to be scared of is Aaron Burbridge who had 89 yards on five catches.

Iowa was worse than MSU but somehow managed the win. Supposed-to-be best QB in the conference James Vandenberg was terrible, completing just 19 of 36 passes for 134 yards (3.7 YPA). Don't let those numbers fool you: not even checkdowns were a guarantee. Iowa's only running back with two legs, Mark Weisman, ran stride for stride with Bell, averaging 4.5 YPC on 26 carries.

This was a game of incompetent offenses that someone had to win. Iowa was the beneficiary of the game's most critical turnover (Maxwell's in 2OT) which decided the outcome.

(I'm removing what Michigan did last week from this section because you know what happened last week.)

Offense vs. Michigan State

Michigan State's defense is the only thing that's kept them in games this season because their offense is atrocious. MSU ranks 8th in rushing yards per game allowed, 12th in pass efficiency defense, and 14th in scoring defense. The other side of the coin is that the Spartans haven't played anyone this year that can really fill up the scoreboard. The only team with a respectable offense (Indiana, of all teams; 31st in points per game) put up 27 points in the first half against MSU before being shut down in the second half (more on this later).

The Spartans are led, not surprisingly, by junior middle linebacker Max Bullough who has 31 solo tackles, 27 assists, 5.5 TFLs, 2 PBUs, and a forced fumble. Bullough is the real deal: a great downfield run stuffer who can drop into coverage and is never caught out of position. Think Kenny Demens' ceiling. At the SLB spot is junior Denicos Allen who is the team's second leading tackler in his second year as the starter. And at the WLB position will be senior Chris Norman.

Combined, the starting linebackers account for 12.5 TFLs of the team's 38. This is an aggressive, blitzing group. These tendencies were exploited against Indiana, where the Hoosiers were able to march up and down the field almost exclusively on bubble screens in the first half. With such dogged determination to get into the backfield, MSU's linebackers are susceptible to horizontal attacks. Hopefully Al Borges was watching this game and took notes; tunnel screens back to the inside of the field are not going to end well, but throw bubbles to the boundary and Michigan could find easy first downs all game.

The concern for Michigan against this unit is, like last year, the double A-gap blitz that makes Denard heave balls off his back foot. These are plays that Rimington award winner David Molk struggled to block. Tasking Elliott Mealer with the same responsibilities spells trouble. To slow down Pat Narduzzi's blitzing defense as well as take pressure off the interior of the offensive line, Borges will have to use screen passes extensively.

While the Spartan linebackers are some of the best in the conference, the team's defensive line is suspect save William Gholston, who you know about. The starting DTs senior Anthony Rashad White and sophomore James Kittridge are non-factors. They try to play much like Michigan's defensive tackles: consume as many offensive linemen as possible and give your linebackers a chance to make tackles. Sophomore strongside defensive end Marcus Rush is good-not-great. He's what you want out of a strongside defensive end: holds up against the run, bats down passes at the line of scrimmage, and occasionally gets into the backfield.

Then of course there's Gholston, a pass-rush extraordinaire who has never been very impressive against Michigan/Taylor Lewan. Gholston has 5 TFLs but only one sack this season. Add in 4 PBUs and a forced fumble and his statistical profile fills out a bit. Ace at MGoBlog is down on Gholston:

If there's a weak point on this defense, it's—wait for it—WDE William Gholston, a quarterfinalist for the Lombardi Award based entirely on reputation. He's been benched at times this season for redshirt freshman Joel Heath. There's a reason for this: Gholston can chase plays down from the backside and bat down passes at the line, but if teams run right at him he gets buried regularly

At 6'7", 278 lbs, Gholston is pretty wiry, but he's still a terror in passing situations. Also, excellent backside pursuit is the kind of thing that can destroy an option running game or a hesitant running back (Fitz Toussaint). If Lewan can handle Gholston like he has the last two years, Michigan could dominate this defense, but with lingering injuries to Lewan, that may be a problem.

In the secondary, Darqueze Dennard is one of the better cover corners in the Big Ten and could present some problems for Michigan's receivers getting open. However, he'll likely be tasked with covering Devin Gardner who is a good six inches taller than him.

Defense vs. Michigan State

OK, so, Le'Veon Bell. I will say this now and you will believe me later: Le'Veon Bell is not a great running back. At 6'2", 244 lbs, he's a moose, but he doesn't have the complementary speed to make him truly dangerous. He can occasionally (occasionally) make people miss in space, but otherwise, his running style is to make contact a yard beyond the line of scrimmage and rumble forward for 3 yards. You can blame his offensive line, if you want, but power running backs, regardless of their offensive line, should probably average more than 3.8 YPC against Central Michigan. Combined with a shoddy offensive line, Bell will remind you more of a third-string Wisconsin running back than similar body types from squads like Alabama.

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, MSU's offense is pretty remedial, led of course by the rushing attack of Bell. MSU ranks 84th in rushing offense, 59th in passing offense, and 102nd in scoring. There are plenty of reasons that the offense struggles, but it starts with the Spartans' makeshift offensive line. Starting right tackle Fou Fonoti and center Travis Jackson have each gone down for the season with injuries. Another important injury is to starting tight end Dion Sims who was the team's leading receiver when he went down with a sprained ankle and helped get push in the running game for a mediocre offensive line. On MSU's first snap, they could be starting two redshirt freshman, two sophomores, and a fifth-year senior on their offensive line.

However, Michigan State's offensive line has been a mess the last two years and each season, the Spartans have found a way to grind Michigan's front seven to dust and protect their quarterback. Though I hate this kind of reasoning, I'm glad to see Kirk Cousins go because he was one of those guys that Just Wins against Michigan. Andrew Maxwell may get the same kind of protection that Cousins got against Michigan's defenses, but he doesn't have the kind of consistency or accuracy that Cousins did. Maxwell has a lively arm but not a lot of touch and is highly erratic. He's completing only 54.3% of his passes this season and averaging only 6.28 YPA. Throw in just 6 TDs to 4 INTs and you have the makings for a not great QB. This isn't pressure-induced, either; MSU ranks 40th in sacks allowed.

Perhaps the biggest hindrance to MSU's offense is the lackluster group of wide receivers. No longer is Keshawn Martin running jet sweeps around the edges of the defense or BJ Cunningham getting open everywhere. Though Keith Mumphrey leads the Spartans in receptions and receiving yards, the only threat is freshman Aaron Burbridge, who at 6'1" is not the Michael Floyd pterodactyl type that Michigan's secondary struggles against. Expect MSU to try and take a few uncharacteristic deep shots to Burbridge with JT Floyd in coverage, but unless Maxwell is dropping those in his lap, Michigan's secondary will just have to concern itself with underneath hitch routes and crossing patterns.

How Michigan's defensive line fares against this depleted front of MSU will determine the game. Against the run, expect Quinton Washington and Will Campbell the continue the dominance they showed against Illinois. Tightening running lanes and keeping offensive lineman at the line of scrimmage will allow the linebackers to hit and swarm Bell. When MSU drops back to pass, I actually expect Michigan to blitz a lot less than they have in the past. With a lackluster group of wide receivers and a mediocre offensive line, the defense will be able to rely on coverage sacks rather than getting pressure with linebackers. This also helps defend against MSU's reliance on tight ends in the passing game, flooding underneath zones with linebackers.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? The combination of Maxwell and MSU's receivers are not a threat to Michigan's secondary, the Spartan offensive line is once again shaky, and Bell doesn't have the home-run power to get Michigan into an uncomfortable situation offensively. If the defensive linemen continue to allow the linebackers to make plays, Michigan should be able to shut down MSU's offense.

When Michigan has the ball, testing the edges of the Spartans' defense will be key to opening running lanes and getting Denard time in the pocket to throw. Jet sweeps and bubble screens should keep MSU honest while the rest of Michigan's base offense should be enough to march down the field.

How does Michigan State win? The offensive line has to play its best game of the season for them to give Maxwell time in the pocket and the receivers time to get open. Le'Veon Bell will need to show that he's more than a 3 yards and a cloud of dust star and force Michigan's linebackers to commit fully to the run. This will open up passing lanes off of play action.

Shutting down Michigan's offense will be harder for the Spartans. MSU's linebackers need to return on their potential and Narduzzi's blitzes will need to generate turnovers. MSU can help their cause by finding a way to stop Denard on the inverted veer and forcing Toussaint to make Michigan's rushing yards.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 60% (I said this before the season and I'm sticking with it)

Final prediction. Denard's rushing totals take a major hit in this game, but Toussaint finally finds some lanes to run through. MSU understands the threat of Denard's legs and have probably gamplanned to stay home on him on all option plays. There will be a fumble generated on a linebacker blitz against an option play. Also, we'll see the return of Denard's back-foot heaves that end serendipitously, mostly thrown to Devin Gardner who makes a few astonishing catches in traffic.

On the other side of the ball, MSU won't be able to get rolling all game. Michigan's linebackers completely shut down Bell who averages ~3 YPC. Maxwell, meanwhile, will have a higher completion percentage than you'd expect but also throws two costly interceptions.

Saturday proves to still be relatively low-scoring, however. Both teams stall out just outside of field goal range a few times and there is at least one missed field goal. Michigan State 9 - Michigan 20

Progress Report: The offense

I watched the first half of the Illinois game yesterday and one thing became clear: there wasn't much that happened schematically in the game. Michigan just dominated Illinois at every position. The only new offensive play Al Borges rolled out was the counter-draw that we saw last year, and the defense spent much of the game run blitzing. In lieu of regular content this week, and because the bye week came after only four games, I'm going to spend the week doing progress reports for the offense, defense, and coaching staff. First, the offense.

Quarterbacks

Grade: A-

Going into the season, we all knew what Michigan was getting from its quarterbacks: Denard is Denard, Devin Gardner was moving permanently to wide receiver, and Russell Bellomy was an unproven freshman who would get occasional snaps in garbage time or when Denard got injured. Six games later, that hasn't changed much. To wit:

Entering his third year as a starter and his senior season, if Denard hasn't already learned not to make those throws, he probably never will learn. Count on Denard to average about an interception--to 1.5--per game.

That's the pessimistic angle (the one that makes more sense in my brain) though. The other side of the coin is Denard, Heisman Contender. While I think that's possible, he's going to need to show significant mprovement over last year while playing a more difficult schedule (don't undersell this as a potential explanation for a lack of improvement from Denard). I've never seen a quarterback go from Year 1 to Year 2 under Borges/Hoke, so I'm not really sure what to expect. Early camp reports say Denard is playing extremely well, but camp reports are camp reports. Can Denard surpass his numbers from last year? Yes, but he won't come close to his breakout 2010 season, the kind of numbers he would need really lock down the Heisman.

Realistically, given the lack of wide receiver talent (about which more later this week), Denard's totals will probably remain the same while things like his yards per attempt drop as his deep jump balls increasingly fall to the turn.

For comparison, let's look at Denard's numbers from 2011, six games into 2011, and through the first six games of this season:

	Att/Comp	Comp%	Yards	YPA	TD/INT
2011	142/258	55%	2,173	8.4	20/15
2011 through 6 games	67/117	57.26%	1,130	9.7	10/9
2012	69/126	54.8%	1,101	8.7	9/8

I think it's hard to argue that Denard is anything but Denard. His stats this season are basically identical to his numbers from the same time last year. True, he didn't play Alabama in 2011, but this many similarities are not a coincidence. Despite "Denard Being Denard" being a bad thing occasionally (see: Notre Dame), Michigan is on pace to win its first Big Ten title since 2004 (!), largely because of him; take the good with the bad.

What's most impressive about Denard's passing output is the lack of wide receiver talent. Devin Funchess has emerged as a serious deep threat, and Devin Gardner is an erratic WR-convert, but otherwise, Denard is working with a bunch of slot ninjas in a non-slot ninja-friendly offense. But recently, Al Borges has changed to a quick-hit passing offense that Denard can excel at and better suits the receivers.

Though his passing stats mirror those of last year, Denard's rushing numbers are significantly improved.  He has carried the ball 101 times this season for 804 yards (8.0 YPC) and 6 TDs, a yardage mark that almost matches his total from the entirety of last year (1,176 yards, 5.3 YPC). Denard's improvement can be attributed to Borges' decision to use the inverted veer which appears indefensible.

Going Forward
Expect more of the same. Denard isn't poised to be anything that we haven't seen already. He's going to throw interceptions when he's pressured, break long runs a few times a game, and make some miraculous passes that you were certain Denard couldn't make. At this point, we should just cherish the last few games of Denard's collegiate career because Michigan is not going to see another player like him in Maize and Blue again. Next year is the Shane Morris show and a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy.

When the dust settles

Terrible Illinois 0 - Michigan 45
Preview

Joseph Tobianski | AnnArbor.com

Now that was vintage Michigan football: injure the opposing quarterback and grind an opponent to dust on defense. Illinois is terrible, but beating them that summarily is still fairly astonishing given the relative talent levels on defense. Even when michigan beat Minnesota last year--a squad in contention for the worst Big Ten team of all time--the Gophers still managed 177 total yards, good for 3.76 yards per play. Against Illinois on Saturday, Michigan's defense held the Illini to 134 yards on 2.5 yards per play. The Wolverine secondary allowed Illinois' two quarterbacks to complete only 7 of 16 passes for 29 yards. The last time Michigan's defense beat a D-I opponent that badly was probably the 2007 Notre Dame game in which they allowed the Irish only 79 yards. Defenders on that team: Terrance Taylor, Brandon Graham, Tim Jamison, Morgan Trent, Donovan Warren, Shawn Crable, Stevie Brown, and Jamar Adams, among others.

There's not much else to say about this game. Michigan beat Illinois at every position, all game. The only thing that slowed Michigan's offense was the non-injury to Denard and two drops by Michigan's receivers on passes thrown by Russell Bellomy. If those catches are made, the Denard injury probably won't even stop Michigan's offense. Fitz Toussaint didn't look great, but that's the only negative that can be taken from this game.

Despite much of the Big Ten schedule left to play including games against Nebraska, Michigan State, and Ohio State, it may be time to start considering Michigan as the best team on both sides of the ball in this conference. Though the Buckeyes just beat up on Nebraska and Indiana, they were still only able to manage 17 points against Michigan State--approximately as much as Iowa did against the Spartans. MSU's defense, meanwhile, has allowed 27 points to Indiana and 20 to a probably bad Notre Dame offense. Though I hate this kind of transitive property assumption, the performances in-conference to date point squarely at Michigan being the most well-rounded team.

With the transformation of the defense this year and last, we can be certain these aren't outlier performances. And with a healthy Denard being on the same page as Al Borges, the sky is the limit for the offense. Make no mistake the 2007 Michigan team would still beat 2012 Michigan to a pulp, but these past two years have been two huge steps to getting this program back to where it's supposed to be. Injured quarterbacks for all!

Bullets

• So maybe it's time to start panicking about Toussaint. Despite having blockers in front of him all game, he kept trying to break a run to the outside rather than taking the yards he was given and keeping Michigan ahead of the chains. I don't know why he's been so impatient this season--perhaps he's just stir crazy from early in the year--but it's becoming a problem. For the game, he managed just 62 yards on 18 carries.
• Denard completed 7 of 11 passes for 159 yards and no interceptions. Excise the 71-yard touchdown pass to Gallon and he throws 6/10 for 88 yards (8.8 YPA). Still good. One of the big changes in the last two games has been a relative dearth of deep shots. This is a good thing and the main reason Denard is playing this well. Dear Al, please continue this trend and don't freak out if Michigan gets behind in a game.
• Three of Michigan's top four tacklers: Jake Ryan (#1), Kenny Demens (#2), and Desmond Morgan (#4). You don't get to a member of the secondary (Kovacs) until eighth on that list, behind James Ross, even. Michigan's front seven is turning into something special.
• Speaking of which, Demens' interception showed the kind of anticipation and development you want to see from senior linebackers.
• Dennis Norfleet terrifies me every time he touches the ball.
• I have a standing rule: if you're a college football team taking field goals longer than 40 yards, you're going to lose that game. This is how Ohio State wins every close game, invariably forcing teams to kick 42-yard field goals (and missing) on 4th and 5. Michigan did this to Illinois in this game. They missed, because obviously they did.

Prediction Tracker
Preview:

Michigan starts scoring early and doesn't look back. Denard doesn't have nearly the rushing totals he did against Purdue, but that's offset by Fitz Toussaint having his best game of the season, finally breaking the 100-yard mark. Denard lights it up through the air though and finishes with two TDs and no interceptions. Defensively, JT Floyd has another strong game but is overshadowed by Jake Ryan who has 3 TFLs. Scheelhaase is pressured early and often and ends up throwing one arm-punt that sets Michigan up for an easy touchdown. Terrible Illinois 13 - Michigan 49

Michigan scored on their first two possessions and were basically only stopped because Denard got injured. Denard's rushing numbers weren't as high as they could have been because Michigan didn't need them to be. The same goes for his passing numbers: no need to throw the ball when everyone on Michigan's roster can find a running lane. Fitz: sadface. Jake Ryan had 3.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. Scheelhaase threw one INT but would have thrown more had Jibreel Black not broken his brain.

Next Week
Michigan State. Winning next week would go a long way to locking up the Legends division crown. It would all but knock MSU out of the running, leaving Iowa (2-0), Northwestern (2-1), and Nebraska (1-1) the only teams able to challenge for the title. I called this a 60/40 win for Michigan before the season and haven't seen anything to change that impression: Le'veon Bell is not terrifying despite what people will have you believe, Andrew Maxwell is incredibly raw, and the defense, as mentioned above, has now allowed 27 to Indiana, 20 to Notre Dame, and 19 to Iowa. It will be closer than you'd like, but Michigan should win comfortably.

Preview: Terrible Illinois 2012

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Terrible Illinois vs. Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

ABC/ESPN

Forecast: High-50s, 100% chance of rain (really?)

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Last Week
Illinois 14 - Wisconsin 31. Illinois has not won a Big Ten game in over a calendar year. In fact, the last time they won a game in the conference was October 8, 2011, when the Fighting Illini beat Indiana 41-20. Now, this doesn't have anything to do with last week despite the fact that they lost to another Big Ten team, this time, Terrible Wisconsin.

Last week's game was relatively close until the fourth quarter. The teams were tied 7-7 going into the half with Illinois' only score coming on a Nathan Scheelhaase scramble and Wisconsin scoring on a 62-yard James White screen pass. Wisconsin was doing everything in its power to prove that it's no longer 2011 until the fourth quarter when they forced two three-and-outs, allowed only a field goal, and racked up 21 points including a two-play, 59-yard touchdown drive.

Scheelhaase went 18/29 for 178 yards (6.1 YPA) with 1 TD and 1 INT. He also racked up 82 yards on 22 carries. In other words, a typical Sheelhaase day. The rest of Illinois' offense was a non-factor. Meanwhile, Wisconsin mediocreback Joel Stave was able to throw for 254 yards on only 25 attempts.

Michigan 44 - Purdue 13. Last week, Michigan looked like the Michigan everyone hoped. Denard looked like Good Denard again: 8/16 for 105 yards through the air--and the best part, no interceptions--and 235 yards on 25 carries. Fitzgerald Toussaint had a rough day, but everyone else who touched the ball for the Maize and Blue found green grass ahead of them.

The defense turned in possibly its best performance of the year, limiting Purdue to just 213 yards on 12 drives; they forced/were gifted four turnovers; the linebackers are finally getting to their run fills on time; the defensive line is getting push; and the secondary is continuing its aggressive man-to-man coverage without giving up big plays.

Offense vs. Terrible Illinois

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

BCS competition has scored no less than 31 points against Illinois in each game this year (Arizona State 45, Penn State 35, and Wisconsin 31, in addition to 52 points allowed to Louisiana Tech). Though the team ranks 38th in rushing yards per game allowed, they are 97th in pass efficiency defense; teams do not need to run the ball against the Illini because they're porous through the air.

If those numbers don't prove how pedestrian this defense is, the Illini's most dangerous defender is weakside defensive end Michael Buchanan, who has 2.5 sacks and 5 TFLs. The team's leading tackler, however is strong safety Ashante Williams. I am firmly of the belief that when your strong safety is your leading tackler, that's a bad thing (see: Jordan Kovacs 2009-2010).

No one will be happier to play Illinois than Fitz Toussaint. This will be the first time all year that Michigan plays a BCS opponent without multiple NFL draft picks in the front seven. Neither defensive tackle Akeem Spence nor Glenn Foster should be much of a problem for Michigan interior line to handle. Justin Staples and Buchanan aren't much for defensive ends, either (Illinois is 89th in the country in sacks). This will be a good barometer for Michigan's offensive line going forward.

With only five interceptions in 6 games, Illinois' secondary isn't much to fret about, but as always, generating turnovers against Michigan comes down to getting pressure on Denard (by the way, Michigan has the highest interception percentage in the country with 8.47%; the only team even close is Auburn with 8%). With a lackluster defensive line, Illinois will likely struggle to get the kind of pressure necessary to affect Denard unless they blitz a lot. With a strong bounceback game against Purdue, Denard and Borges look to be back on the same page. Though last week wasn't Denard's best performance through the air, it was more than enough to get the job done when you're averaging 9.8 YPC.

Expect a similar offensive structure this week: lots of inverted veer runs, with short passes and limited downfield shots. Borges may try to get Devin Funchess involved in the passing game a little more in this game after mostly falling off the map in the last few weeks. This can be attributed to teams actually guarding him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more routes run with Funchess as the first read.

Defense vs. Terrible Illinois

Jonathan Daniel | Getty Images North America

So Nathan Scheelhaase is still Illinois' quarterback despite all of the available evidence against him. Dude plays like Tate Forcier, except he can't throw and doesn't look to extend plays in order to pass. So, not like Tate Forcier at all, but that's who he'll remind you of. Scheelhaase has started his third year as a starter poorly. He's completing 62% of his passes but only averaging 6.34 YPA. Add in a 3/5 TD/INT ratio and you have the makings of a disappointing junior year. Caveats for playing for a new coaching staff apply, but he doesn't look like he has a breakout performance waiting in reserves.

Flanking Scheelhaase in the backfield will be a number of different players, but sophomore Donovan Young leads the team in carries with 59. Young is averaging only 3.8 YPC, but few players are doing better: freshman Josh Ferguson is averaging 4.1 YPC and Scheelhaase is averaging a career low 2.3 YPC (down a yard from 2011). This is not a good offense: 101st in total offense, 78th in passing efficiency, and 94th in rushing yards per game. The only real receiving threat on the Illinois roster is junior Ryan Lankford who is averaging 14.5 yards per catch and has 5 yards on the season, but Lankford isn't the elite-level receiver that can really threaten Michigan's secondary.

This Wolverines defense is quietly becoming elite again. It ranks 7th in passing yards allowed per game, 26th in pass efficiency defense, and 37th in scoring defense. With Mattison and Hoke capable of turning anyone over 300 lbs into a reliable+ defensive lineman, this will become a perennial occurrence. The bad news for Illinois: they rank 109th in sacks allowed this season despite having a scrambling QB and option running game. This is not a good offensive line, which Mattison will take advantage of and the defensive line should dominate.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Come to play and don't turn the ball over. Illinois' offense is anemic, their defense has been torched by anyone resembling a decent offense, and there are no real offensive-threats/breakout players on Illinois' offense. Barring another Denarmageddon, this should be a routine game much like the Purdue win. (ps, It's a weird feeling being confident about a Big Ten game.)

How does Terrible Illinois win? Blitz. Force turnovers. Hope for a bad day from Denard. Kickoff/punt returns for TDs.

Arbitrary percentage that Michigan wins: 88.397%

Final prediction: Michigan starts scoring early and doesn't look back. Denard doesn't have nearly the rushing totals he did against Purdue, but that's offset by Fitz Toussaint having his best game of the season, finally breaking the 100-yard mark. Denard lights it up through the air though and finishes with two TDs and no interceptions. Defensively, JT Floyd has another strong game but is overshadowed by Jake Ryan who has 3 TFLs. Scheelhaase is pressured early and often and ends up throwing one arm-punt that sets Michigan up for an easy touchdown. Terrible Illinois 13 - Michigan 49

Wide receiver blocking on jet sweep

I've been critical of some of Michigan's wide receivers' blocking this season, namely Devin Gardner and Jerald Robinson. Against Purdue, Al Borges called a play in which the wide receivers were doing something in the blocking game that Michigan State used to burn the Wolverines last year: seal the playside linebackers to the inside.

Michigan comes out in a three-WR set and will run a jet sweep for Jeremy Gallon (lined up in the slot at the top of the screen). Purdue counters with 3-4 front and three-high zone coverage.

As the ball is snapped, left guard Ricky Barnum will pull across the formation and run through the playside B gap looking for a Purdue defender downhill to block.

Rather than heading straight upfield to block the cornerback lined up over him, Devin Gardner (bottom of the screen) runs toward the middle of the field to block the playside ILB that is flowing down the line with Gallon. Toussaint will act as a lead blocker on the playside OLB and chip block him before heading upfield.

Toussaint engages (highlighted) and Gardner squares up his block. Notice Barnum still running upfield. His intended blocker is the free safety coming from the middle of the field:

The key to this play working is Toussaint making a good chip block before heading upfield. He hits the OLB with enough force to stop him from tackling Gallon in the backfield but is able to continue toward the cornerback. Barnum is still running toward the free safety.

Unfortunately, Gallon tries to bounce the play outside toward the sideline rather than cutting back inside where he had his blocking set up.

The play ends with Gallon being led out of bounds despite blocking set up to the inside.

Video

The Takeaway
It's pretty clear why MSU gashed Michigan with this last year. If Gallon cuts back to the inside, the only player with a chance of tackling him is the backside ILB (#39) who is doing a good job of flowing downhill with the play but probably has a 50/50 chance of actually making the tackle.

Borges has finally started to utilize bubble screens on a semi-regular basis, which is a great addition to Michgian's arsenal. Prior to using them, Michigan rarely tested a defense sideline-to-sideline. The only other plays the Wolverines ran that did so were these jet sweeps, which always seem, at best, moderately effective. Changing up a blocking scheme to seal the opponents playside linebackers and put a ball carrier in space against a single defender is all you can ask for. It will be interesting to see how this evolves throughout the season, but testing the outsides more frequently and effectively can only mean good things for this offense going forward.

Running away

Michigan 44 - Purdue 13
Preview

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Usually a win against a typical Purdue team would not inspire a lot of confidence for the future, but given all of the Borges vs. Denard talk the last two weeks, this game represents one of the best marriages of the two talents we've seen to date. During the bye week, Borges said he was going to rewatch every play he had ever called at Michigan and it appeared he followed up on that promise. Gone from Michigan's offense were the downfield heaves, replaced by the short passing game Denard excels at. Denard carried the ball 24 times, his second-highest total this season, most of which were the inverted veer--Michigan's most successful running play all season. Though the level of competition was not up to Notre Dame's defense, this was a return to the style of offense that turned Denard into one of the nation's most dangerous players.

This game was also another building block in the not-so-straw house of Michigan's defense. This Boilermaker offense, while not prolific, is still the most recent team to score an offensive touchdown on Notre Dame and had properly rolled the cupcakes you would expect from a good offense (48 against Eastern Kentucky, 54 against Eastern Michigan, and 51 against Marshall). Putting aside Raymon Taylor's gift pick-six* Michigan held Purdue to just 56 yards on 26 carries (2.2 YPC) and only 157 yards through the air on 23/35. Perhaps the most promising stat of the game is that Michigan's top four tacklers were all front-seven guys (Kenny Demens, Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, and Craig Roh). Michigan was controlling the line of scrimmage and hitting Purdue ball carriers at the point of attack. When Jordan Kovacs only makes one tackle in a dominating defensive performance, you know things are looking up.

Then again, Purdue might be terrible, or simply Purdue. Pessimism about this game was born more of Michigan's inadequacies than Purdue's talent, so this win doesn't do a lot more than assure fans that Borges can get this figured out and Greg Mattison and his defensive staff are miracle workers. While I was a lot higher on the defense coming into the year than most people, even I didn't expect performances like this. Despite the loss of Blake Countess, the secondary is humming along, the defensive line started as a question mark but has turned into consistent good-not-great performers, and the linebackers are coming along albeit slower than most would like.

Most importantly, this game gets Michigan back on track. Losses to Notre Dame suck, but they don't have any impact on Michigan's pursuit of the Big Ten title. Holding serve against underdogs and beating Michigan State and Nebraska should more or less assure Michigan a spot in the Big Ten title game against... something from the Leaders division (probably Wisconsin).

*This was Michigan's first pick-six from a member of the secondary since Donovan Warren picked off Ricky Stanzi in 2009 and took it to the house. Michigan also got a pick-six from Brandon Herron against Western Michigan in 2011. This lack of production isn't totally surprising given Michigan's bereft secondary the last few years, but those are dire numbers.

Bullets

• Fitz Toussaint. Toussaint is not broken, but Michigan's offensive line might be. The only way Michigan could move the ball on the ground is when Denard read a Purdue defender who didn't stay disciplined. Otherwise, the Purdue front seven tore up Michigan's offensive line. That's how Fitz Toussaint goes from a 1,000 yard rusher to getting 19 yards on 17 carries against Purdue. Sure, a few of those were carries form the one yard line that netted exactly as much as was needed, but the interior of Michigan's offensive line is precisely as shaky as it has seemed all year.
• As a bonus, during the game, the Big Ten Network put up a stat about Denard's rushing this season. Running left, he was averaging 8+ YPC; middle, ~6 YPC; and right ~4 YPC. This is the perfect visualization for the talent on Michigan's offensive line.

• Update: (directional running at right)
• There wasn't much receiving to be had in this game as Michigan dominated on the ground, but the names in the boxscore are what you would expect: Gallon, Gardner, Roundtree, and Funchess. Those are your receivers going forward with occasional appearances by Drew Dileo.
• The Purdue offense is probably terrible, but they couldn't get anything done in this game. More impressively, I think Michigan spent almost the entire game in a base defensive set without much blitzing. They brought in the nickel package a few times, but this game was won by being better at the point of attack.
• The Denard/Vincent Smith fumble was crappy, but I'm pretty sure it was because of a nickel blitz off the edge. Secondary blitzes on the zone read continue to scare me.

Prediction Tracker
Preview:

Final prediction: It's hard being optimistic about this game given Short and Denard's most recent performance. Michigan's offense is going to stall a lot in this game. But I'm not sure that Purdue's offense will have much success. The over/under for this game is somewhere in the mid- to high-50s, which, if I were a betting man, I'd take the under. This is a low-scoring game with both quarterbacks making a number of mistakes. Short's strength and Michigan's interior line weaknesses actually dictate how this game goes, but Denard breaks a long run that ends up being the difference. Michigan 17 - Purdue 16.

So basically all wrong. Kawann Short ended up being a major factor in the game (8 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 pass breakup), but wasn't able to get to Denard on passing downs. He helped shut down Fitz Toussaint but did little else. Michigan's offense didn't stall at all, punting only twice and missing a long field goal. Also, it's a good thing I'm not a betting man because this game went over the O/U.

Next Week
The next terrible Big Ten team Michigan takes on is terrible Illinois at the Big House. I saw something to this effect Tweeted out this weekend, but in Illinois' last 11 games against BCS competition, Illinois' points for are: 14 (Wisconsin), 7 (Penn State), 14 (Arizona State), 24 (Western Michigan), 20 (UCLA, last year), 7 (Minnesota), 17 (Wisconsin), 14 (Michigan), 7 (Penn State), 14 (Purdue), and 7 (Ohio State). This Nathan Scheelhaase might not be very good. The only thing that gives me pause about this game is Michigan's struggles against Air Force's offense this season, but Illinois does not run the wishbone and their defense appears to be non-existant.