How Vincent Smith saved Michigan's season

During Michigan's game-saving two-minute drill against MSU, one play stands out as the most unexpected and perhaps most important play of the game: Vincent Smith's 12-yard first down run to move the chains and stop the clock. The thing is, he never should have touched the ball, but because of a terrible read by Denard, Smith had to engage super-ninja mode to get any positive yardage.

It is first and 10 with exactly two minutes left on the clock. Michigan has just forced a three-and-out against MSU to get the ball back. Taking a tackle for loss here would be devastating: Michigan would either lose 10-15 seconds or have to burn its only remaining timeout. Michigan comes out in a four-wide, one-back set. MSU is in a nickel package with four down linemen. The playside defensive end is actually Max Bullough Marcus Rush.

As the ball is snapped, Bullough Rush (highlighted) is left unblocked by Taylor Lewan. The only problem is Denard is reading one of the linebackers and fails to see Bullough standing there.

Michigan is running the inverted veer here, so if the defensive end stays high like he is, Denard is supposed to pull the ball and head upfield. The linebacker that Denard is currently reading is actually the assignment of Patrick Omameh who is pulling across the formation. But because that linebacker is staying in the middle of the field rather than bouncing out to defend the Smith run, Denard hands the ball off.

Omameh has now pulled around the formation and is about to block the MSU linebacker that Denard was reading. Meanwhile, Bullough has started to move outside to contain Smith.

I mean holy crap:

[insert Chris Berman noise]

Denard squares up to block someone, but the rest is all Smith...

....sneaking through defenders to pick up the first down.

Video

The Takeaway
Under Borges' system, Denard has spent a lot of time reading linebackers on the option, but this is an emphatically bad read. MSU's best player had Vincent Smith dead-to-rights in the backfield on the game-winning drive until Smith reminded everyone why he's Michigan's best space player. There's a reason Rodriguez utilized Smith so much on passes out of the backfield and running plays: if you get him into the open field with a single defender, he's going to make that guy miss. Do you trust Fitz Toussaint to make that cut this year or would you expect him to try and bounce outside past Bullough? Not only does Smith keep this play alive, but he makes it past the first down marker, stopping the clock and allowing Michigan to set up the rest of the drive.

All hail Vincent Smith, Michigan's most underrated player for three-years running.

Running into a brick wall

I said in my game column yesterday that Michigan's offense was incoherent against MSU: they didn't test the Spartans' defense deep despite safeties playing 8 yards from the line of scrimmage and they didn't test the defense horizontally to put a strain on overly aggressive linebackers. The other problem was that Borges called running plays on 19 of Michigan's 26 first downs, including 9 of 11 in the first half. What you'll see below will not surprise you: MSU's safeties are less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage on a 1st and 10 early in the game. Borges calls a running play, doesn't audible, and the results are exactly what you'd expect.

It's 1st and 10 early in the first quarter. There was absolutely no reason for MSU's safeties to be cheating as strongly as they are in this alignment other than Borges has obvious tendencies that can be exploited. As such, Michigan's three-wide, one-back set gets defended like this:

Jeremy Gallon begins to run across the formation on a jet sweep.

As the ball is snapped, look at the leverage of MSU's linebackers and safeties: all but one of them is on the balls of his toes and running toward the line of scrimmage.

By the time Gallon has passed Denard who will utilize Fitz Toussaint as a lead blocker, MSU's three linebackers are two yards from the line of scrimmage. Their two safeties are no more than six yards from the line of scrimmage.

One of MSU's linebackers is already beyond the LOS. Fitz Toussaint will block him as the lead blocker, leaving an MSU safety (highlighted) unblocked to hit Denard in the hole. Notice that both Denard and the safety are equidistant from the LOS.

Seeing an unblocked safety (highlighted) already at the line of scrimmage, Denard cuts back inside...

.... and is clobbered.

Video

The Takeaway
This is fucking infuriating. There was no doubt in the minds of MSU's linebackers or safeties; Michigan is running and there's no chance of Denard pulling up to throw here. Look, for example, at Gallon who is effectively running a wheel route. Who's covering him? Roy Roundtree runs into the screen to try and block anyone, but if he had run a route downfield, he would've had one-on-one coverage. For Borges, a guy who claims to want to attack vertically, this should be his bread and butter. Instead, it's a one-yard loss because he ran the ball on 73% of Michigan's first downs. This is untenable. If Michigan doesn't develop play action off of its base offensive sets or at least start breaking tendency, mounting a consistent offensive attack against good defenses will be impossible.

Righting the ship

Michigan State 10 - Michigan 12
Preview

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Michigan football is in a very weird place. Every year before the Michigan/Michigan State game, the senior sports writers from the schools' respective student newspapers write dueling columns. They're generally childish and stupid and not very well written (in this year's edition, MSU's writer closed with jokes about Tito Jackson and Entourage: biting, relevant insults if I've ever heard them). But I don't read them for sharp quips. I read them specifically because they make me kind of angry. This year, there was a disturbance in the force:

With each new season, I get the pleasure of hearing about the Wolverine resurgence, how this will be the year they’ll run roughshod over the Big Ten and the Spartans — and then get to watch Michigan’s season fall apart following a loss at the hands of “non-rival” Michigan State.

Each season, I get to hear about Denard Robinson’s Heisman candidacy before Michigan has played a game, how the sophomore, then junior, now senior quarterback will shatter every NCAA Division-I record en route to New York for the trophy presentation. And each year, Robinson blows up in spectacular fashion — though this season’s fall from grace was my personal favorite, when he threw four interceptions on four straight passing attempts against Notre Dame.

But please, tell me again how “Shoelace” torched an 0-6 Massachusetts team fresh from Division II for 397 total yards and four touchdowns. That impresses me.

There are Michigan State students that believe this is how the world works. This is comical in its lack of historical context.

Some time in the last 5 years, Michigan went from a program so dominant over its in-state rival that Mike Hart calling MSU "little brother" became a relevant meme and talking point for the media and both programs, to a team that's known as the Big Ten's Wile E. Coyote, hatching elaborate plans that go hilariously awry. There might be some truth to that perception. Michigan students rushed the field after eeking by an unranked 4-3 Michigan State team. I understand the reasoning: no undergrads have experienced the joy of beating the Spartans before, but Act Like You've Been There Before is an obligation, not a suggestion for haughty Michigan fans. We're the worst.

But righting the ship was always Brady Hoke's goal. You get the impression that one of the reasons Hoke would have walked to Michigan from San Diego is that he was pained by Michigan's free fall. In 20 games at the helm of the Maize and Blue, Brady Hoke is 16-4, undefeated at home, holds wins over Michigan's two primary rivals, and has a BCS bowl win. With Saturday's win over Michigan State, winning a Big Ten championship remains the only hurdle left for Brady Hoke's Michigan to leap.

This team is not without faults or free of concerns (notably, Al Borges' continued indifference to winning games or even picking up first downs), but it's hard not to feel like this team is being curated expertly by Hoke. With every new accomplishment, victory, and high-ranked recruit, Michigan inches closer to the program everyone fears instead of the one that keeps running into the tunnel painted onto the side of a mountain.

Bullets

• Michigan's terrible offensive output falls on the shoulders of Al Borges (again). Consider the following chart of Michigan's run/pass split on 1st and 2nd down:

	1st down Run/Pass	Yards	2nd down Run/Pass	Yards	Drive result
	Rush	0	Rush	1	Punt
	Rush	0	Pass	22
	Rush	3	Rush	2
	Rush	-3	Pass	-2	Punt
	Rush	4	Rush	0
End of 1st
	Pass	Inc	Pass	-1
	Rush	38
	Rush	-6	Rush	5	FG
	Rush	4	Rush	-3	Punt
	Pass	35
	Rush	4	Pass	Inc	FG
End of 2nd
	Rush	8	Rush	5
	Rush	14
	Rush	4	Rush	-4	Punt
	Rush	0	Pass	Inc	Punt
	Pass	Inc	Rush	-6	Punt
	Rush	12
	Pass	Inc	Pass	5
End of 3rd
	Rush	2	Pass	13
	Rush	7	Pass	Inc	FG
	Pass	Inc	Rush	44
	Rush	6	Rush	-3	Punt
	Rush	12
	Rush	0	Pass	3
	Pass	1	Pass	20
	Pass	Inc			FG

• Michigan threw the ball on only 7 of 26 first downs, and MSU knew it. Michigan averaged 8.47 yards to go on second down, largely because Borges kept running directly into the face of Michigan State blitzes. This was apparent to everyone watching the game, notably Pat Narduzzi who was licking his chops as Michigan continued to get behind the chains early.

• Michigan's other problem offensively:
  
  
  
  
  Look at where Michigan State's safties are lined up: seven yards (seven!!!!) from the line of scrimmage. Michigan tested the MSU defense vertically only once or twice the entire game. They also rarely used play action, so when Michigan showed run, they were running into a box with 9 players in it. Michigan's offensive structure/scheme against this defense was incoherent.
• Le'Veon Bell: Still not terrifying. Bell could only muster 68 yards on 26 carries (2.8 YPC) with a long of 8 yards. His game is simply to run into the nearest defender and try to carry him four yards downfield. With players like Jake Ryan laying the lumber on Bell and not Boise State's undersized linebackers, that play style becomes a lot less intimidating (and effective). His offensive line clearly couldn't get a lot of push in this game, but Bell was never able to outrun Michigan defenders to get into space or make something out of nothing. He's one dimensional and Michigan exploited that in this game.
• Andrew Maxwell is not a very good QB. If this were his freshman or sophomore year, you could make excuses for his performances this season, but he's a junior without much upside. Against Michigan he completed 61% of his passes (his second highest completion percentage this season;  against Central Michigan he completed 64.5%) but only averaged 5.64 YPA. His interception was bad and was largely responsible for Michigan winning the game.
• Raise your hand if before the game, you thought Drew Dileo, Matt Wile, and Brendan Gibbons would be the most important players in this game. No one? Really? Wile finally delivered on the promise of being a big-legged field goal kicker. In case you were wondering, yes that was Wile's first field goal attempt in a Michigan uniform. And Dileo did exactly what he's always done at Michigan: catch absolutely everything thrown his way. I'll have to rewatch the game to see how he got so open on the final play, but that may be a season-defining catch.
• The dropped touchdown pass by Gallon was unfortunate and I think it was caused by a miscommunication between Gallon and Denard. I'm giving Denard the benefit of the doubt here, but I think he was expecting Gallon to settle down in the zone where Denard threw the pass. That may not be the case--there's a good chance Denard just made a bad throw--but regardless, that catch needs to be made.
• Speaking of dropped passes, someone please teach Devin Gardner how to catch in traffic.
• Taylor Lewan is desperately trying to convince everyone that he's not an All-American left tackle. He needs to get these penalties in check and sort out his blocking protections because he's been disappointing this season. The only way this benefits Michigan is if it forces him to return for his senior season.
• Will Gholston may need to stick around for his senior season to erase his reputation against Michigan as a total non-factor.

Prediction Tracker

Denard's rushing totals take a major hit in this game, but Toussaint finally finds some lanes to run through. MSU understands the threat of Denard's legs and have probably gamplanned to stay home on him on all option plays. There will be a fumble generated on a linebacker blitz against an option play. Also, we'll see the return of Denard's back-foot heaves that end serendipitously, mostly thrown to Devin Gardner who makes a few astonishing catches in traffic.

On the other side of the ball, MSU won't be able to get rolling all game. Michigan's linebackers completely shut down Bell who averages ~3 YPC. Maxwell, meanwhile, will have a higher completion percentage than you'd expect but also throws two costly interceptions.

Saturday proves to still be relatively low-scoring, however. Both teams stall out just outside of field goal range a few times and there is at least one missed field goal. Michigan State 9 - Michigan 20

Denard's rushing totals were down a bit but Toussaint still couldn't get things rolling. No fumbles or backfoot throws. MSU couldn't get started, though, save two second-half drives. Bell averaged 2.6 YPC and Maxwell threw a really costly interception.

Next Week
Saturday's game against Nebraska will probably determine who wins the Legends division. Beating Nebraska puts Michigan two games ahead of everyone in the division save Terrible Iowa, who has been unexpectedly competent. Nebraska is 12th in points per game but 72nd in points against. Given how Michigan has fared against rushing attacks the last three weeks, Nebraska shouldn't be too much trouble, but they have the potential to beat the Wolverines, especially at night in Lincoln.

Preview: Michigan State 2012

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Michigan State vs. Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-50s, 20% chance of rain 

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MSU Last Week

Iowa 19 - MSU 16 (2OT). Andrew Maxwell, intent on bringing back Sparty No! threw a pick in the second half of double overtime to end the Spartans bid to beat inexplicably 4-2 Iowa. Le'Veon Bell had his best game of the season and finally looked like the dangerous running back he's rumored to be but still only managed 4.8 YPC (albeit on 29 carries). Andrew Maxwell is still an inexperienced, inconsistent quarterback that is most certainly not Kirk Cousins. Against Iowa, he threw 12/31 for 179 yards and 1 INT. Maxwell has a lively arm but accuracy is a major concern. The only MSU wide receiver that anyone ever needs to be scared of is Aaron Burbridge who had 89 yards on five catches.

Iowa was worse than MSU but somehow managed the win. Supposed-to-be best QB in the conference James Vandenberg was terrible, completing just 19 of 36 passes for 134 yards (3.7 YPA). Don't let those numbers fool you: not even checkdowns were a guarantee. Iowa's only running back with two legs, Mark Weisman, ran stride for stride with Bell, averaging 4.5 YPC on 26 carries.

This was a game of incompetent offenses that someone had to win. Iowa was the beneficiary of the game's most critical turnover (Maxwell's in 2OT) which decided the outcome.

(I'm removing what Michigan did last week from this section because you know what happened last week.)

Offense vs. Michigan State

Michigan State's defense is the only thing that's kept them in games this season because their offense is atrocious. MSU ranks 8th in rushing yards per game allowed, 12th in pass efficiency defense, and 14th in scoring defense. The other side of the coin is that the Spartans haven't played anyone this year that can really fill up the scoreboard. The only team with a respectable offense (Indiana, of all teams; 31st in points per game) put up 27 points in the first half against MSU before being shut down in the second half (more on this later).

The Spartans are led, not surprisingly, by junior middle linebacker Max Bullough who has 31 solo tackles, 27 assists, 5.5 TFLs, 2 PBUs, and a forced fumble. Bullough is the real deal: a great downfield run stuffer who can drop into coverage and is never caught out of position. Think Kenny Demens' ceiling. At the SLB spot is junior Denicos Allen who is the team's second leading tackler in his second year as the starter. And at the WLB position will be senior Chris Norman.

Combined, the starting linebackers account for 12.5 TFLs of the team's 38. This is an aggressive, blitzing group. These tendencies were exploited against Indiana, where the Hoosiers were able to march up and down the field almost exclusively on bubble screens in the first half. With such dogged determination to get into the backfield, MSU's linebackers are susceptible to horizontal attacks. Hopefully Al Borges was watching this game and took notes; tunnel screens back to the inside of the field are not going to end well, but throw bubbles to the boundary and Michigan could find easy first downs all game.

The concern for Michigan against this unit is, like last year, the double A-gap blitz that makes Denard heave balls off his back foot. These are plays that Rimington award winner David Molk struggled to block. Tasking Elliott Mealer with the same responsibilities spells trouble. To slow down Pat Narduzzi's blitzing defense as well as take pressure off the interior of the offensive line, Borges will have to use screen passes extensively.

While the Spartan linebackers are some of the best in the conference, the team's defensive line is suspect save William Gholston, who you know about. The starting DTs senior Anthony Rashad White and sophomore James Kittridge are non-factors. They try to play much like Michigan's defensive tackles: consume as many offensive linemen as possible and give your linebackers a chance to make tackles. Sophomore strongside defensive end Marcus Rush is good-not-great. He's what you want out of a strongside defensive end: holds up against the run, bats down passes at the line of scrimmage, and occasionally gets into the backfield.

Then of course there's Gholston, a pass-rush extraordinaire who has never been very impressive against Michigan/Taylor Lewan. Gholston has 5 TFLs but only one sack this season. Add in 4 PBUs and a forced fumble and his statistical profile fills out a bit. Ace at MGoBlog is down on Gholston:

If there's a weak point on this defense, it's—wait for it—WDE William Gholston, a quarterfinalist for the Lombardi Award based entirely on reputation. He's been benched at times this season for redshirt freshman Joel Heath. There's a reason for this: Gholston can chase plays down from the backside and bat down passes at the line, but if teams run right at him he gets buried regularly

At 6'7", 278 lbs, Gholston is pretty wiry, but he's still a terror in passing situations. Also, excellent backside pursuit is the kind of thing that can destroy an option running game or a hesitant running back (Fitz Toussaint). If Lewan can handle Gholston like he has the last two years, Michigan could dominate this defense, but with lingering injuries to Lewan, that may be a problem.

In the secondary, Darqueze Dennard is one of the better cover corners in the Big Ten and could present some problems for Michigan's receivers getting open. However, he'll likely be tasked with covering Devin Gardner who is a good six inches taller than him.

Defense vs. Michigan State

OK, so, Le'Veon Bell. I will say this now and you will believe me later: Le'Veon Bell is not a great running back. At 6'2", 244 lbs, he's a moose, but he doesn't have the complementary speed to make him truly dangerous. He can occasionally (occasionally) make people miss in space, but otherwise, his running style is to make contact a yard beyond the line of scrimmage and rumble forward for 3 yards. You can blame his offensive line, if you want, but power running backs, regardless of their offensive line, should probably average more than 3.8 YPC against Central Michigan. Combined with a shoddy offensive line, Bell will remind you more of a third-string Wisconsin running back than similar body types from squads like Alabama.

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, MSU's offense is pretty remedial, led of course by the rushing attack of Bell. MSU ranks 84th in rushing offense, 59th in passing offense, and 102nd in scoring. There are plenty of reasons that the offense struggles, but it starts with the Spartans' makeshift offensive line. Starting right tackle Fou Fonoti and center Travis Jackson have each gone down for the season with injuries. Another important injury is to starting tight end Dion Sims who was the team's leading receiver when he went down with a sprained ankle and helped get push in the running game for a mediocre offensive line. On MSU's first snap, they could be starting two redshirt freshman, two sophomores, and a fifth-year senior on their offensive line.

However, Michigan State's offensive line has been a mess the last two years and each season, the Spartans have found a way to grind Michigan's front seven to dust and protect their quarterback. Though I hate this kind of reasoning, I'm glad to see Kirk Cousins go because he was one of those guys that Just Wins against Michigan. Andrew Maxwell may get the same kind of protection that Cousins got against Michigan's defenses, but he doesn't have the kind of consistency or accuracy that Cousins did. Maxwell has a lively arm but not a lot of touch and is highly erratic. He's completing only 54.3% of his passes this season and averaging only 6.28 YPA. Throw in just 6 TDs to 4 INTs and you have the makings for a not great QB. This isn't pressure-induced, either; MSU ranks 40th in sacks allowed.

Perhaps the biggest hindrance to MSU's offense is the lackluster group of wide receivers. No longer is Keshawn Martin running jet sweeps around the edges of the defense or BJ Cunningham getting open everywhere. Though Keith Mumphrey leads the Spartans in receptions and receiving yards, the only threat is freshman Aaron Burbridge, who at 6'1" is not the Michael Floyd pterodactyl type that Michigan's secondary struggles against. Expect MSU to try and take a few uncharacteristic deep shots to Burbridge with JT Floyd in coverage, but unless Maxwell is dropping those in his lap, Michigan's secondary will just have to concern itself with underneath hitch routes and crossing patterns.

How Michigan's defensive line fares against this depleted front of MSU will determine the game. Against the run, expect Quinton Washington and Will Campbell the continue the dominance they showed against Illinois. Tightening running lanes and keeping offensive lineman at the line of scrimmage will allow the linebackers to hit and swarm Bell. When MSU drops back to pass, I actually expect Michigan to blitz a lot less than they have in the past. With a lackluster group of wide receivers and a mediocre offensive line, the defense will be able to rely on coverage sacks rather than getting pressure with linebackers. This also helps defend against MSU's reliance on tight ends in the passing game, flooding underneath zones with linebackers.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? The combination of Maxwell and MSU's receivers are not a threat to Michigan's secondary, the Spartan offensive line is once again shaky, and Bell doesn't have the home-run power to get Michigan into an uncomfortable situation offensively. If the defensive linemen continue to allow the linebackers to make plays, Michigan should be able to shut down MSU's offense.

When Michigan has the ball, testing the edges of the Spartans' defense will be key to opening running lanes and getting Denard time in the pocket to throw. Jet sweeps and bubble screens should keep MSU honest while the rest of Michigan's base offense should be enough to march down the field.

How does Michigan State win? The offensive line has to play its best game of the season for them to give Maxwell time in the pocket and the receivers time to get open. Le'Veon Bell will need to show that he's more than a 3 yards and a cloud of dust star and force Michigan's linebackers to commit fully to the run. This will open up passing lanes off of play action.

Shutting down Michigan's offense will be harder for the Spartans. MSU's linebackers need to return on their potential and Narduzzi's blitzes will need to generate turnovers. MSU can help their cause by finding a way to stop Denard on the inverted veer and forcing Toussaint to make Michigan's rushing yards.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 60% (I said this before the season and I'm sticking with it)

Final prediction. Denard's rushing totals take a major hit in this game, but Toussaint finally finds some lanes to run through. MSU understands the threat of Denard's legs and have probably gamplanned to stay home on him on all option plays. There will be a fumble generated on a linebacker blitz against an option play. Also, we'll see the return of Denard's back-foot heaves that end serendipitously, mostly thrown to Devin Gardner who makes a few astonishing catches in traffic.

On the other side of the ball, MSU won't be able to get rolling all game. Michigan's linebackers completely shut down Bell who averages ~3 YPC. Maxwell, meanwhile, will have a higher completion percentage than you'd expect but also throws two costly interceptions.

Saturday proves to still be relatively low-scoring, however. Both teams stall out just outside of field goal range a few times and there is at least one missed field goal. Michigan State 9 - Michigan 20

The Arrival

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

There are some moments that feel bigger than they actually are in the grand scheme of things: your first kiss, getting your first job, acing a particular test. Each has some cultural significance that tells you This Is Important despite the fact that these moments are likely to happen far more frequently in the future than they have in the past. The worst case scenario for most of these is a missed opportunity, but there are some instances that don't necessarily have to happen; when Target rejected my application as a 16 year old, it felt deflating, but chances were that I'd spend most of my life working in some capacity.

When Darius Morris' floater clanged off the rim against Duke to end the Wolverines' season last year, everyone was disappointed. Michigan had missed its opportunity to make a truly profound statement: not only had Beilein begun to turn around a moribund program, but the evolution was complete; Michigan can compete with anyone, on any stage, at any time. Instead it felt like another close loss, the likes of which the team has seemed to suffer on a regular basis over the last three years. Sports are zero sum events--there are no moral victories--so despite Michigan's fate last night hinging on a similar shot that could have just as easily gone the other way, the results are profoundly different.

It's a reach to say that Michigan has a better basketball program than Michigan State now. They don't. Tom Izzo's win total and the Final Four appearances and the recruiting rankings and the championship banners hanging in the Breslin Center are enough proof of that. But Michigan is a better team than Michigan State, which is something that can't be said that frequently in the history (certainly the more recent history) of Michigan basketball.

Most importantly, though, Michigan has finally arrived. When they were ranked #15 in the preseason poll heading into the 2009-2010 season, most fans were skeptical. The team still had noticeable blemishes and the wins that put them on the map the previous year felt more like feel-good stories than the actual emergence of a contender. But with the program's third straight win over their in-state rival--and a team with annual national title aspirations and potential, to boot--the Wolverines have finally fulfilled the promise that they've been inching toward since Beilein set foot in Ann Arbor.

Bullets

• Everyone knew that Michigan was going to lose that game in the second half. And then they didn't. A big thanks goes to Keith Appling who continues to play faster than his mind can process. Credit obviously goes to Michigan's defense as well, about which more in a moment, but Appling, as he did last year, plays too quickly.
• Jordan Morgan, Zack Novak, and Stu Douglass are the reason Michigan won this game. Despite their middling stat lines, these guys all stepped up throughout the game defensively. Down the stretch, I would've liked to see Douglass covering Appling more frequently, but this is a minor complaint. Morgan denied the post, Novak did his grit thing, and Douglass displayed his usual defensive prowess.
  
  Beilein also deserves credit for the defensive performance. He just pushes the right buttons at the right time, mixing in 2-3 and 1-3-1 zone defenses with the team's typical man coverage. He uses the zone sets sparing, but they almost always seem to work when he deploys them.
• Trey Burke: good.
• I think the Hardaway hype train has finally run out of steam. The two charges that he took on defense were momentum shifting plays, but otherwise, Hardaway continued his unimpressive season. And yet it's hard to argue with his season averages (15.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 APG). Hardaway is a utility superstar (think Joe Johnson): not amazing at anything but pretty good at just about everything with an emphasis on scoring. His defense is still a huge problem and he appears to be a malcontent. Hardaway has to be one of the most humdrum stars in the country.
• It still boggles my mind that a team full of three-point specialists can't hit three pointers. I know that everyone's enduring vision of Novak is of him scrapping for rebounds and bleeding from his forehead, but watching him clanging wide open threes off the rim will be my lasting memory of him, fair or not.
• This is a great NCAA Tournament resume piece. One or two more of these (and taking care of business against the Big Ten's lower-ranked teams) and Michigan could be looking at a 5 or 6 seed in the tournament.

The dangers of zone blitzing

One of the few complaints I can levy against the defensive staff after the weeks leading up to the Michigan State game was a lack of the innovative blitzes that Mattison showed early in the season. Michigan State, being a strictly pro-style offense, appeared to be the perfect team for Mattison to unveil a few of his NFL-style blitzes. In my opinion, the team didn't blitz nearly enough in the game. For the most part, any D-I offensive line can pass protect against four straight-ahead rushers, which is what the Spartan line was tasked with for most of the game. Occasionally, Mattison would bring a blitz, however, and on this example, he utilized a zone blitz but oddly used man coverage behind the blitz rather than zone coverage, necessitating that Michigan's defensive ends cover players they had no ability to cover.

It's third and eight with about four minutes left in the third quarter. Cousins had just thrown the backwards pass that wasn't a backwards pass. Michigan is in its nickel package with Coutney Avery as the nickelback and Desmond Morgan and Kenny Demens as linebackers.

Before the snap, Michigan's linebackers show blitz, as does Jordan Kovacs who has come down from his safety position. These three will blitz the A gap, not unlike Michigan State did against Michigan all game.

As the ball is snapped, Michigan's defensive ends (Craig Roh and Jake Ryan) both drop off into coverage as Demens, Morgan, and Kovacs blitz the A gap. On the strongside of the field, you can see Avery and Blake Countess in man coverage against MSU's receivers. Roh is also assigned to man coverage against MSU's H-back. Ryan, lined up against BJ Cunningham on the weakside of the field is supposed to be in man coverage. You'll see in a minute that he is confused about his assignment on the play.

The blitzers are now getting into the backfield and will have a free run at Cousins (there aren't enough blockers to protect him). Roh is engaged with the MSU H-back. FWIW, I think he'd probably be called for defensive holding if the play had ended differently. On the weakside of the field, Cunningham is running behind Ryan. Cousins already recognizes that Ryan has missed his assignment as is getting ready to throw to Cunningham once he clears Ryan.

Morgan and Kovacs have blown by the MSU running back and are charging after Cousins. You can see Ryan pointing at Cunningham. Ryan thinks that this is zone coverage, and he's trying to alert Roh to the crossing route. Unfortunately, Michigan is in man coverage.

At the last minute, Ryan realizes that he's blown his coverage, but Cunningham is already wide open. The blitz was a step too late.

Blown coverage aside, this emphasizes the danger of running zone blitzes: if the blitz doesn't land, you have defensive ends in zone coverage against zippy slot receivers. This almost always ends poorly. This play, however, is especially perplexing. I can't understand how Mattison can call for man coverage from the defensive ends on a blitz, especially asking them to cover wide receivers. If they are assigned to tight ends, fine, they might be able to handle that. But asking Ryan to cover one of MSU's best receivers in man coverage is suicide. I think the design of the play calls for Ryan to jam Cunningham at the line of scrimmage so that the A gap blitz has time to land, but that's a risky call.

Other random observations
You can see the difference between this A gap blitz and the ones that MSU used against Michigan. As MGoBlog pointed out, MSU was timing Michigan's snap count and able to get into the backfield almost immediately. The Spartan defenders were able to build a full head of steam pre-snap. Michigan's blitzers, however, were slowly creeping to the line of scrimmage when the ball was snapped.

Another thing to note is the pre-snap alignment of Ryan, who is lined up close to a yard behind the other defensive linemen:

Though I'm not positive, I think Ryan or Roh has done this before. It's something to watch going forward. If the defensive ends continue lining up too far from the line of scrimmage on the zone drops, it will tip off the blitz and coverage to opposing QBs. It didn't here, and I'm not sure if it's noticeable enough in real time, but it looks to me like it is. Ryan's helmet is a full yard off the line of scrimmage. If opposing linemen start picking up on this pre-snap, they can tip off the quarterbacks to a likely zone blitz. It will also help them in pass protection.

Using receivers to seal Michigan's linebackers

One thing that was clear to Michigan State's offensive staff was that Michigan was bad at containing the edge on running plays. When Michigan's defensive ends weren't being chopped down as they recklessly rushed upfield, MSU was using a variety of blocking schemes to seal Michigan's linemen and linebackers to the inside of the field. One such play would've gone for a touchdown had Edwin Baker not gotten a case of the fumblies.

It's the first play of MSU's second drive of the third quarter. MSU is in an offset I formation with one wide receiver and an H-back. Michigan is in a 4-3 even front with SAM linebacker Jake Ryan rolled up to the line of scrimmage as the EMLOS.

Before the snap, MSU's H-back will motion across the formation. Michigan doesn't change their formation at all. This is a problem because, if you can count, you can see that on the strongside of the field now (bottom of screen), Michigan has only five defenders. Meanwhile, MSU has the RG, RT, H-back, FB, and wide receiver on that side of the field to block.

As the ball is snapped, the RT immediately steps away from the line of scrimmage and pulls around to the playside. The fullback is also headed to the strongside of the field as a lead blocker. The H-back and wide receiver are tasked with sealing Craig Roh and Desmond Morgan to the inside of the field.  The right guard will reach block and seal Will Heininger. This is an outside pitch to Baker.

Offensive structure versus MSU

While reading MGoBlog's recap of the Michigan State game, I was struck by some of the numbers he cited. Though I found structural issues with Michigan's playcalling, Brian found entirely different ones based on rushing and passing numbers that seemed to go against what I thought I saw on Saturday. Specifically this:

While this doesn't paint a pretty picture for the run game, either, after halftime Michigan passed on 60% of its first downs, got one completion on a short route that turned into a big gain when Roundtree broke a tackle, and did nothing else.

For the game Michigan tried to pass at least 41 times*, averaging 2.8 yards per attempt and giving up a defensive touchdown.
TWO POINT EIGHT YARDS
DEFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN
RUN THE FOOTBALL!!!!
…

…

Sorry. Sorry.

Michigan tried to run the ball 26 times and averaged… oh, Jesus… 5.2 yards per carry. Fitzgerald Toussaint got two carries, Denard twelve.

These numbers seemed wrong and after looking through the box scores that I typically look at (Rivals and ESPN), I still don't know where these numbers came from. Both box scores say that Michigan ran the ball 36 times for 82 yards (an average of 2.3 yards per carry). In college, sack yardage is inexplicably taken away from the running game, but even if we add in the yards from Michigan's seven sacks (62), Michigan average only 4 YPC (144 yards with sacks removed), not the gaudy 5.2 YPC that Brian cites.

The same discrepancies exist in the passing game. Both box scores list Michigan as completing 12 of 31 passes through the air for 168 yards (5.4 YPA). If you remove sack yardage from those passing numbers, Michigan averaged 3.29 YPA (102 yards with sack yardage subtracted)

To make the running numbers worse, 80 of Michigan's rushing yards came on five carries:

• 26-yard Vincent Smith carry on a miraculous Denard zone read
• 15-yard Denard scramble for a touchdown (supposed to be a pass)
• 15-yard Denard carry on a jet sweep
• 11-yard QB draw on 2nd and 18 when MSU is playing prevent
• 13-yard Denard carry on a jet sweep

That's two base-offense carries, one scramble, and two jet sweeps. If you excise those rushes and sacks, Michigan produced 64 yards on 29 carries (2.2 YPC). This isn't a particularly fair process--you can't just cherry pick Michigan's best runs and remove them--but the sustainability of running Incredibly Surprising Denard Jet Sweep is questionable and scrambles can't be relied upon to produce consistent rushing numbers. Not that any of this really matters, but it does at least confirm what I saw on Saturday: Michigan couldn't run in this game because Michigan State was loading the box and forcing Denard to throw the ball.

[UPDATE: A commenter notes that if we remove sack yards from rushing totals, we also have to remove the rushing attempts. Therefore, Michigan produced 144 yards on 29 carries (4.9 YPC). For the cherry picked rushed above, Michigan average 64 yards on 24 carries (2.6 YPC).

Similar logic applied to the passing numbers. If you add rushing totals back into the passing numbers, Michigan netted 102 yards on 38 attempts (2.7 YPA).

I didn't expect Brian to make an error like this and by my math (wrong) it seemed like he had. While Michigan did struggle passing the ball, I still think saying the team rushed for 5.2 YPC (or 4.9, whatever the case may be) is a bit misleading.]

This is the kind of defensive formation Michigan saw all game:

Regardless of the weather, you don't run against this formation. You can't. MSU's safeties are 8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and the defense is essentially playing cover zero. If your receivers can't get open (and QB can't throw to them) with this coverage, you're not winning.

Before the game, the logic was that the wind would hurt Michigan State more because they relied more heavily on the passing game. In reality, Kirk Cousins, being a much better passer than Denard, was able to more effectively manage the adverse conditions. The Spartan defense, therefore, was able to key on the running game because of Denard's existing passing struggles in addition to the blustery conditions.

The real problem with Michigan's offense in this game was the structure of the passing routes. Almost all of the Michigan receivers were running vertical routes that took too long to develop. With the MSU blitzes and the windy conditions, long-developing routes were never going to be successful. To make matters worse, MSU completely disregarded the bubble screen. Michigan hasn't used it once this season and so defenses are allowed to align like this:

That's Michigan's best receiver (Junior Hemingway) lined up in the slot with a safety 10 yards off the line of scrimmage in man coverage. Michigan would run a pitch option here that would net two (TWO!) yards. On the next play, Drew Dileo will dive for the first down on Michigan's fake punt.

For a coordinator that tries to exploit man coverage by taking shots down the field, it's willful stupidity not to throw bubble screens when a defense aligns like this. Worse still, Michigan ran into a defensive front that had eight men in the box openly showing a run blitz. Even one of those throwback screens that Michigan has used this season would have worked; MSU was overpursuing for most of the game.

I don't think Michigan threw the ball too much against MSU. The bigger problem was the passing routes that the team ran. With a defense so obviously selling out on the run by constantly blitzing (which also stopped deep routes), the short hitches and screen passes that Denard has proven he can throw would've been a superior option to the deep routes that Borges called in an attempt to exploit single coverage on the outside.

Mark Dantonio: Pillar of class

I forgot to mention this in the game column, but it deserves to be noted: Though Michigan may have been beaten on Saturday, they certainly weren't outclassed. As if you didn't know this already, the Spartans are truly unsportsmanlike thugs. The ESPN announcers extolling the virtues of Mark Dantonio and the way he runs his program to try and offset yet another cheap shot by the Spartans was comical. After the Dorm Hall Massacres, it was probably a stretch to try and validate that program as anything other than a bunch of meatheads given total amnesty, but since Tressel's departure, Dantonio has become the poster boy for good, upstanding Christian men with strong jaws. This is just further proof that if you put on a good face and say the right things to the media, reality is unimportant.

I mean this with all sincerity: Fuck Mark Dantonio. You beat us, and that sucks, but I can live with the loss. What pisses me off is watching your players act like asshole as you're commended for your discipline.

Michigan State 2011: Where Little Brother finds your weakness

#11 Michigan 14 - #23 Michigan State 28

Jeff Sainlar | AnnArbor.com

The last time my older brother and I got in a serious altercation was on Thanksgiving Eve a few years ago. It was past midnight at our parents' house and we were both in town for the holiday. Neither of us felt like going out, so we opened a few beers and my poker set, and sat down at the dinner table to play a few games heads up until we got too bored, angry, or tired to keep going.

My brother is a better poker play than me. Aside from knowing the odds, he's also more disciplined; it's difficult to bluff if you haven't won any hands yet, but invariably, that becomes my strategy early in poker games. But I know my brother's greatest weakness and more importantly, I know how to exploit it: get in his head. If only I could win a few toss-up hands, I knew I could give him enough mental jabs to get him totally off his rocker. After about an hour of playing, he stormed off into his room as I sat at the table shrugging saying something to the effect of, "Whatever dude, just sit down and shut up and we'll play." This was a victory.

It's not just poker either. My brother is taller, stronger, and smarter than I am, and being of a religiously competitive breed, we spent most of our childhood figuring out Who Is Better, which meant I needed to figure out what his weaknesses are and how to exploit them. In basketball, I have a speed advantage that I use to get to the basket. Defensively, I know that when I don't contest his shot, he tends to shoot with less arc, causing more rim outs. These are petty, small, unsustainable strategies that have become my only defense against someone who is objectively better than me at a few key competitive events.

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When Mike Hart now famously referred to Michigan State as Little Brother in 2008, the Spartans took it as the greatest sign of disrespect, but in reality, it's not that far off. When people think "football" and "Michigan", the first thing that comes to mind is the Wolverines; teachers called me by my brother's name an innumerable amount of times through gradeschool and high school. But less disrespectfully, Michigan State is a growing program, fighting for national relevance by slowly making itself a force to be reckoned with. Michigan, meanwhile, was the established entity.

Michigan's weaknesses are not the same as my brother's--he understands statistics, so he knows better than to punt from the opponent's 36 yard line on fourth and four. Michigan State plays like a little brother, though. For the last several years, more than any other opponent, they've identified and exploited Michigan's weaknesses en route to commanding victories.  Michigan's linebackers and defensive ends struggle with contain? They run almost exclusively outside of the tackles (even with two mediocre-to-bad offensive tackles). Denard Robinson struggles throwing under pressure? Bring heat constantly. Michigan runs well but struggles throwing the deep ball, even with man coverage and no safety help? Load the box.

You would think that Al Borges and Greg Mattison would change tendencies. How many times does an opponent have to blitz before Borges calls that throwback screen to Smith? How many times can Michigan State run outside the tackles before you bring a safety/cornerback blitz off the edge? In this game, unfortunately, either arrogance, ignorance, or just befuddlement caused Michigan's coordinators to spend most of the afternoon slamming their head against a brick wall and hoping that eventually, it would crumble. It didn't, of course, because the brick wall was made of brick and your head is made of squishy tissue that, if this were Rock-Head-Brick Wall, would lose to brick wall. (Head would also lose to rock for what it's worth. It doesn't seem like a very balanced game.)

So Michigan goes into its bye week 6-1. This was never supposed to be a BCS season, and 10-2 with a win over Ohio State would still be a better case scenario than most expected preseason. Michigan has its flaws and at this point, they're obvious to everyone, including the Michigan coaching staff. Finding ways to remedy those, or at the very least mask them, has become Borges' and Mattison's primary mission.

Bullets

• Borges comes in for some lashings after this game. The offense continued to run plays that were doomed from the start. All passing routes were vertical and downfield. Rushes were stuffed at the line as Michigan State loaded the box. There were no screens thrown against an aggressive blitzing defense. Borges was punked the whole game and seemed content to run the same plays through four quarters.
• Mattison, on the other hand, called a pretty good game. Were it not for the defensive ends and linebackers giving up the edge on rushes, the defense shut down the MSU offense. Kirk Cousins averaged only 5 yards per attempt. The Spartan offensive line was as advertised: soft. But by doubling Michigan's defensive ends with tight ends, Michigan State was able to get the edge and run all over Michigan's undisciplined defense.
• It was a good day for Mark Huyge's new charity Spartans in the Backfield (SitB). Huyge had a truly awful day and offered MSU's defenders a direct line to Denard on countless passing plays.
• Denard struggled, but there were reasons for it outside of his control. SitB was a huge problem all game. In addition, the Michigan State defense loaded the box making running nearly impossible.
• Despite playing against single coverage, Michigan's receivers were completely shut down. I'll have to watch again, but they seemed to get precisely zero separation against MSU's corners. Though Denard wasn't very accurate, he didn't have many open receivers to throw to.
• Michigan showed another counter to the heavy-I formation they debuted last week but it was blown dead on a delay of game penalty, which is a shame because Fitz Toussaint had a 20+-yard carry.

Next week
Michigan is on its bye this week. They can use this time to get healthy and implement more of the offensive and defensive schemes. The following week, Michigan takes on Purdue, a game that will be a good barometer for the rest of the season.

Around here, this week will feature the regular post-game analysis. The following week will be a mid-season breakdown of where I expected to be at this point and where they are now.

Preview: Michigan State 2011

#11 Michigan (6-0) vs. #23 Michigan St. (4-1) Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan Kickoff 12 pm EST ESPN Forecast: 50s, 20% chance of rain

Last week
Michigan St.: Bye. MSU is coming off of their bye week, but the previous Saturday, they went against Ohio State in a game that did wonders for the Big Ten's national reputation: a commanding 10-7 win against a team that couldn't field a functional quarterback. A little credit is due to the Spartans defense for holding the Buckeyes to 178 total yards of offense, but that's not saying much. Joe Bauserman (Michigan fans should buy up every Bauserman jersey available; love that dude) played most of the game, throwing the ball in the general vicinity of the football field. Though he didn't throw any interceptions, his 7/14, 87-yard stat line speaks for itself. Ohio State is a black hole.

On the other side of the ball, the underwhelming Ohio State defense was able to hold Kirk Cousins and the Spartan offense in check, though mostly due to two terrible interceptions by Cousins who seemed determined to keep OSU in the game. As it has been all year, the MSU running game was nonexistent, but that's what happens when your offensive line is a hodgepodge of position switch starters and Gumby characters. The highly touted trio of Le'Veon Bell, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper managed just 85 yards on 27 carries (3.15 YPC).

Simply put, the Spartans barely looked like a functional football team playing fighting-for-bowl-eligibility Ohio State. If ever there were a confidence builder for Michigan fans, this game was it.

#12 Michigan 42 - Northwestern 24. Game recap. After being dominated in the first half against Northwestern, mostly due to three interceptions from Denard, the team rallied in the second half and scored 28 straight points to beat the Wildcats. The defense shut out the Dan Persa-led offense in the second half after the Northwestern squad left scorched earth in their wake during the first two quarters. Michigan was the beneficiary of a sketchy interception call that turned the momentum of the game, allowing the offense to take hold of the game.

After Denard's first-half arm punting, he settled down and led the offense to 541 yards on 17/26 through the air. Al Borges continued his tricky playcalling with a play action to the counter draw, as well as a heavy-I formation that earned Michigan an easy touchdown. The defense struggled with Northwestern's triple option, though. Defensive ends, who were assigned to the quarterback, often gave up the edge, and the Wildcats were able to throw bubble screens for significant yardage throughout the game.

Despite a shaky effort on both sides of the ball, Michigan came away with a commanding victory.

Offense vs. MSU
First, let's disabuse the notion that Michigan State has one of the best defenses in the country. MSU's ranking as the 3rd best scoring defense, 3rd rushing defense, and 2nd pass efficiency defense is a tenuous one when you consider the opposition. The Spartans' murderer's row of opponents includes: Ohio State, Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, and their one loss (in which they allowed 31 points) to Notre Dame. If you actually believe that Michigan State's defense is as good as those rankings, then I've got some land to sell you.

That's not to say Michigan State has a bad defense. Defensive tackle Jerel Worthy looks like the best defensive prospect in the Big Ten this year. He routinely blows by offensive linemen and fights off double teams. Elsewhere on the defensive line, former 5-star prospect William Gholston has lived up to the hype. The secondary is also strong, recording seven interceptions in the first five games of the season.

How Al Borges schemes for this defense will be interesting. Like the last few weeks, running up the middle will be hard. Worthy will make inside runs far more difficult than they should be while Gholston and the MSU linebackers should be able to contain a lot of the outside carries. Against Northwestern, we saw Borges use Mike Shaw to get the edge on some carries, and I'd expect that to continue this game. Otherwise, Michigan will have to use some new option schemes or the speed option to get Denard and Co. in space against a traditional 4-3 defense.

The other concern is Worthy's pass rush. If you watch MSU games from this season, one thing you'll notice is how quickly Worthy and the rest of the defensive line get off the ball. In years past, it's been clear that MSU's defensive line was timing Michigan's snap count, and it looks like that kind of preparation has become a staple of the MSU defense. It'll be interesting to see if Borges starts using hard counts to slow down the aggressive pass rush. The other thing that should be effective against this front seven are screens and counters. Expect to see more from Vincent Smith as Borges uses him out of the backfield in an effort to slow the pass rush.

If Michigan's short stuff isn't working or Denard is forced to sit in the pocket and throw, things could get hairy. We've already seen how Denard struggles with pressure (throwing off his back foot and often throwing to the other team), and Worthy is the kind of defensive tackle that will get into the backfield. I'd guess that the deep jump balls will be rare to nonexistent in this game. Besides playing a cover-2 shell thus limiting those deep opportunities, Worthy is the kind of player that will get to the QB given enough time. Borges should have at least one or two new formations and wrinkles to throw at the Spartan defense to keep them guessing.

Defense vs. MSU
Though all of the above might seem foreboding, the good news is MSU's offense is pretty terrible. As inflated as MSU's numbers are against a schedule of patsies, their shoddy offensive production to date looks even worse. Currently, the Spartans are 79th in rushing offense, 34th in passing yards per game, and 62nd in scoring offense. When your second most difficult opponent is a Luke Fickel-led team, you've officially only played cupcakes. And against them, the Spartan offense has been pretty bad.

Much of that has to do with the team's offensive line, which features a defensive tackle position switch (who only switched to offensive line in the spring) and a JUCO as the tackles and a redshirt freshman center. This is a recipe for disaster, and it's been trouble for Cousins. MSU is 24th in sacks allowed, but Cousins is under constant pressure. In addition, the terrible offensive line has completely shut down what was expected to be a prolific rushing attack. With the trio of Caper, Bell, and Baker, Michigan State's running game was supposed to be one of the best in the Big Ten. Instead, they've produced an awful 3.4 YPC this season. There's trouble in East Lansing.

How Michigan's defense stacks up against this attack will be interesting. So far, the defensive line hasn't been as productive as expected, but given the Minnesotaness of MSU's offensive line, a big game is necessary. Specifically, Jibreel Black, Craig Roh, and Jake Ryan (when he has his hand in the ground) need to beat MSU's inexperienced tackles, though I expect Dantonio will use tight ends frequently to help out blocking on the outside. If Cousins has too much time in the pocket, he will pick apart Michigan's secondary, regardless of how much they appear to have improved this season.

Enter Greg Mattison. We've seen what Mattison's schemes can do to inexperienced offensive lines, and given that Cousins isn't a threat to run like Persa was last week, blitzing should resume in full effect this game. The stunts Michigan used earlier this year will hopefully cross up the inexperienced line and give Michigan a few free shots at Cousins. If nothing else, it'll force him to rush throws and get him out of rhythm.

Meanwhile, I don't think MSU has the pieces in place to hurt Michigan on the ground. Though the running back trio can be deadly, the status of the Spartan offensive line is too poor to make any lanes. Mike Martin will be charged with clogging up the middle of the field and taking care of any iso runs while the decisiveness of the indecisive linebackers will be put to test on power runs. It'll be key that Michigan doesn't let the MSU running backs bounce outside on power runs. Keeping everything in the middle of the field should effectively shut down the MSU running game.

Prediction
Before the season, this was a Michigan State lock, but seeing the state of MSU's offense and the improvement from Michigan's defense makes this a lot harder to call. The chances that MSU marches down the field are unlikely. Without a functioning running game, sustained drives will be sparse. The key will be whether or not Michigan can get pressure and whether or not Cousins can pick apart the secondary. (Something to watch: With a pro-style QB, chances are he'll take advantage of Michigan's defensive backs face guarding. Expect multiple back-shoulder throws and a few pass interference calls.) A lot of Michigan's success will hinge on Mattison's playcalling.

On offense, Michigan will be forced to pick their way down the field. MSU's 4-3 cover-2 will all but eliminate Denard's jump balls. Borges is going to have to find ways to exploit a stacked box, necessitating a lot of tunnel screens, throwback screens to Smith, and short hitch routes. This will be Michigan's chance to really utilize the triple option that they showed against Minnesota. Ultimately, they move the ball well against MSU's conservative defense and rediscover the rushing attack that was absent against Northwestern.

Michigan 31 - Michigan State 20