Righting the ship

Michigan State 10 - Michigan 12
Preview

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Michigan football is in a very weird place. Every year before the Michigan/Michigan State game, the senior sports writers from the schools' respective student newspapers write dueling columns. They're generally childish and stupid and not very well written (in this year's edition, MSU's writer closed with jokes about Tito Jackson and Entourage: biting, relevant insults if I've ever heard them). But I don't read them for sharp quips. I read them specifically because they make me kind of angry. This year, there was a disturbance in the force:

With each new season, I get the pleasure of hearing about the Wolverine resurgence, how this will be the year they’ll run roughshod over the Big Ten and the Spartans — and then get to watch Michigan’s season fall apart following a loss at the hands of “non-rival” Michigan State.

Each season, I get to hear about Denard Robinson’s Heisman candidacy before Michigan has played a game, how the sophomore, then junior, now senior quarterback will shatter every NCAA Division-I record en route to New York for the trophy presentation. And each year, Robinson blows up in spectacular fashion — though this season’s fall from grace was my personal favorite, when he threw four interceptions on four straight passing attempts against Notre Dame.

But please, tell me again how “Shoelace” torched an 0-6 Massachusetts team fresh from Division II for 397 total yards and four touchdowns. That impresses me.

There are Michigan State students that believe this is how the world works. This is comical in its lack of historical context.

Some time in the last 5 years, Michigan went from a program so dominant over its in-state rival that Mike Hart calling MSU "little brother" became a relevant meme and talking point for the media and both programs, to a team that's known as the Big Ten's Wile E. Coyote, hatching elaborate plans that go hilariously awry. There might be some truth to that perception. Michigan students rushed the field after eeking by an unranked 4-3 Michigan State team. I understand the reasoning: no undergrads have experienced the joy of beating the Spartans before, but Act Like You've Been There Before is an obligation, not a suggestion for haughty Michigan fans. We're the worst.

But righting the ship was always Brady Hoke's goal. You get the impression that one of the reasons Hoke would have walked to Michigan from San Diego is that he was pained by Michigan's free fall. In 20 games at the helm of the Maize and Blue, Brady Hoke is 16-4, undefeated at home, holds wins over Michigan's two primary rivals, and has a BCS bowl win. With Saturday's win over Michigan State, winning a Big Ten championship remains the only hurdle left for Brady Hoke's Michigan to leap.

This team is not without faults or free of concerns (notably, Al Borges' continued indifference to winning games or even picking up first downs), but it's hard not to feel like this team is being curated expertly by Hoke. With every new accomplishment, victory, and high-ranked recruit, Michigan inches closer to the program everyone fears instead of the one that keeps running into the tunnel painted onto the side of a mountain.

Bullets

• Michigan's terrible offensive output falls on the shoulders of Al Borges (again). Consider the following chart of Michigan's run/pass split on 1st and 2nd down:

	1st down Run/Pass	Yards	2nd down Run/Pass	Yards	Drive result
	Rush	0	Rush	1	Punt
	Rush	0	Pass	22
	Rush	3	Rush	2
	Rush	-3	Pass	-2	Punt
	Rush	4	Rush	0
End of 1st
	Pass	Inc	Pass	-1
	Rush	38
	Rush	-6	Rush	5	FG
	Rush	4	Rush	-3	Punt
	Pass	35
	Rush	4	Pass	Inc	FG
End of 2nd
	Rush	8	Rush	5
	Rush	14
	Rush	4	Rush	-4	Punt
	Rush	0	Pass	Inc	Punt
	Pass	Inc	Rush	-6	Punt
	Rush	12
	Pass	Inc	Pass	5
End of 3rd
	Rush	2	Pass	13
	Rush	7	Pass	Inc	FG
	Pass	Inc	Rush	44
	Rush	6	Rush	-3	Punt
	Rush	12
	Rush	0	Pass	3
	Pass	1	Pass	20
	Pass	Inc			FG

• Michigan threw the ball on only 7 of 26 first downs, and MSU knew it. Michigan averaged 8.47 yards to go on second down, largely because Borges kept running directly into the face of Michigan State blitzes. This was apparent to everyone watching the game, notably Pat Narduzzi who was licking his chops as Michigan continued to get behind the chains early.

• Michigan's other problem offensively:
  
  
  
  
  Look at where Michigan State's safties are lined up: seven yards (seven!!!!) from the line of scrimmage. Michigan tested the MSU defense vertically only once or twice the entire game. They also rarely used play action, so when Michigan showed run, they were running into a box with 9 players in it. Michigan's offensive structure/scheme against this defense was incoherent.
• Le'Veon Bell: Still not terrifying. Bell could only muster 68 yards on 26 carries (2.8 YPC) with a long of 8 yards. His game is simply to run into the nearest defender and try to carry him four yards downfield. With players like Jake Ryan laying the lumber on Bell and not Boise State's undersized linebackers, that play style becomes a lot less intimidating (and effective). His offensive line clearly couldn't get a lot of push in this game, but Bell was never able to outrun Michigan defenders to get into space or make something out of nothing. He's one dimensional and Michigan exploited that in this game.
• Andrew Maxwell is not a very good QB. If this were his freshman or sophomore year, you could make excuses for his performances this season, but he's a junior without much upside. Against Michigan he completed 61% of his passes (his second highest completion percentage this season;  against Central Michigan he completed 64.5%) but only averaged 5.64 YPA. His interception was bad and was largely responsible for Michigan winning the game.
• Raise your hand if before the game, you thought Drew Dileo, Matt Wile, and Brendan Gibbons would be the most important players in this game. No one? Really? Wile finally delivered on the promise of being a big-legged field goal kicker. In case you were wondering, yes that was Wile's first field goal attempt in a Michigan uniform. And Dileo did exactly what he's always done at Michigan: catch absolutely everything thrown his way. I'll have to rewatch the game to see how he got so open on the final play, but that may be a season-defining catch.
• The dropped touchdown pass by Gallon was unfortunate and I think it was caused by a miscommunication between Gallon and Denard. I'm giving Denard the benefit of the doubt here, but I think he was expecting Gallon to settle down in the zone where Denard threw the pass. That may not be the case--there's a good chance Denard just made a bad throw--but regardless, that catch needs to be made.
• Speaking of dropped passes, someone please teach Devin Gardner how to catch in traffic.
• Taylor Lewan is desperately trying to convince everyone that he's not an All-American left tackle. He needs to get these penalties in check and sort out his blocking protections because he's been disappointing this season. The only way this benefits Michigan is if it forces him to return for his senior season.
• Will Gholston may need to stick around for his senior season to erase his reputation against Michigan as a total non-factor.

Prediction Tracker

Denard's rushing totals take a major hit in this game, but Toussaint finally finds some lanes to run through. MSU understands the threat of Denard's legs and have probably gamplanned to stay home on him on all option plays. There will be a fumble generated on a linebacker blitz against an option play. Also, we'll see the return of Denard's back-foot heaves that end serendipitously, mostly thrown to Devin Gardner who makes a few astonishing catches in traffic.

On the other side of the ball, MSU won't be able to get rolling all game. Michigan's linebackers completely shut down Bell who averages ~3 YPC. Maxwell, meanwhile, will have a higher completion percentage than you'd expect but also throws two costly interceptions.

Saturday proves to still be relatively low-scoring, however. Both teams stall out just outside of field goal range a few times and there is at least one missed field goal. Michigan State 9 - Michigan 20

Denard's rushing totals were down a bit but Toussaint still couldn't get things rolling. No fumbles or backfoot throws. MSU couldn't get started, though, save two second-half drives. Bell averaged 2.6 YPC and Maxwell threw a really costly interception.

Next Week
Saturday's game against Nebraska will probably determine who wins the Legends division. Beating Nebraska puts Michigan two games ahead of everyone in the division save Terrible Iowa, who has been unexpectedly competent. Nebraska is 12th in points per game but 72nd in points against. Given how Michigan has fared against rushing attacks the last three weeks, Nebraska shouldn't be too much trouble, but they have the potential to beat the Wolverines, especially at night in Lincoln.

Progress report: The 2011 special teams

Since it's Michigan's bye week, it's a good time to take stock of where the team is currently in relation to where we expected them to be preseason. Previously: Where are they now: The team, the team, the team, The defense, The offense

Preseason expectations:

The word for special teams this season is competence. For three years, we've watched this Michigan team fumble and bumble basically every special teams play that didn't feature Zoltan kicking the ball to the moon. If the kickers are competent, that means 3-6 more points per game. If the returners are competent, that means better starting field position and more possessions. This year, all signs point toward competence. But don't expect much more.

Best case scenario for the 2011 season was a competent kicking game, competent returners, and no awful busts. For the most part, this has been the case. Despite uninspiring returns from the kick and punt return units and a few misses from Brendan Gibbons, Michigan has been spectacularly average. This is universal improvement over the endless stream of mistakes from the special teams last over the last three seasons.

Placekicking
Preseason expectations:

Projecting how these two will kick throughout the year is tough (How many opportunities will they get? How long will the kicks be? etc), but it's worth venturing a guess. While Gibbons is being given a shot early on, I expect him to struggle, making 2/4 or some other uninspiring performance, opening the door for Wile to assume the permanent gig. By the year's end, Michigan's kickers will be somewhere in the combined range of 18/24. Hoke's more conservative approach will see the team taking a lot more chances in the kicking game, and if Wile proves a noticeable improvement over last year (he has to be, right?), that shouldn't be such a harrowing experience.

Despite being given a scholarship to kick footballs through the uprights, true freshman Matt Wile hasn't attempted so much as an extra point. This ranks somewhere in the range of mildly disappointing, given the team's field goal struggles in the previous few years. Returning harbinger of doom Brendan Gibbons, meanwhile is 4/6 on field goals and 32/33 on extra points. While these are uninspiring numbers, Gibbons has at least been close on his missed field goal attempts as opposed to last year where, well, you know.

Before the season, Hoke said that Wile would be the kicker on long-distance field goals, but Gibbons has seen all kicking duty. I don't know if this is poor performance by Wile in practice or simply a coin flip, but for whatever reason, Hoke appears to be sticking with Gibbons throughout the season. He's been good enough that Michigan was able to run a fake field goal because MSU actually thought we could kick from that distance. This is a bonus.

Kickoffs, as expected, are being handled by Wile who has proven an immediately improvement over Gibbons. Wile has the leg to get the ball into the endzone on kickoffs, which pushes returners back at least 10 yards from where they were catching the ball last season. Unfortunately, there's something horribly wrong with Michigan's coverage. I don't know if it's getting out of your lanes or just poor tackling, but Michigan's kick coverage is broken. I don't understand a ton about the fundamentals of kickoff coverage, but I know that Michigan shouldn't be allowing returns to consistently bring the ball beyond the 30 yard line.

Grand Statement of Optimism: I don't know, Gibbons is 4/6 or something? His performance seems sustainable and Michigan hasn't kicked less than one field goal per game. If Gibbons can stay consistent within 30 yards, I won't curse his name every time he steps on the field.

Grand Statement of Pessimism: Gibbons 2010. Michigan is currently tied for 93rd in the country with a 66% success rate.

Wet Owl sez:

Punting
Preseason expectations:

In [Hagerup's] absence, Wile will be handling punting duties. Here, best case scenario is no terrible shanks. Even if Wile doesn't boom the ball down the field like Hagerup can, as long as he doesn't commit any huge errors, Michigan should be able to sneak by the first half of the season with Wile puting. When Hagerup returns, punting should be a strong part of Michigan's game, and given Hoke's Carr-like tendencies, an integral part of the gameplan.

With Hagerup missing the first five games of the season, Wile did an admiral job holding down the fort. Zoltan he was not, but he got the job done, averaging 41.1 yards on 14 kicks. Hagerup's return, however, has been uninspiring. He is averaging a meager 33.6 yards per kick on 10 attempts. You would expect Hagerup's numbers to resemble those of last year eventually (43.6 yards per kick; a long of 72, wheeee).

The bigger issue punting has been the coverage downfield. MGoBlog has been railing against the use of the traditional punt formation all season and with good reason:

Michigan's return to a traditional punt formation puts a burden on two lone gunner tasked with tackling the returner. This can only produce bad things. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear like Hoke will be changing this strategy anytime soon.

Grand Statement of Optimism: Hagerup proved last year that he has a good-to-great leg. His early-season struggles are probably just a statistical anomaly.

Grand Statement of Pessimism: Traditional punting

Wet Owl sez:

Punt/kick returns
Preseason expectations:

Hemingway and Odoms have both proven themselves to be competent catchers, but neither are particularly explosive on punt returns--though Odoms' returns late last season would be to differ. My guess is that Dileo, who was recruited specifically for punt returns, will be the primary returner by season's end, unless he experiences the same drops and mistakes of the last three years.

As for kick returns, Gallon, Kelvin Grady, and Vincent Smith are listed on the depth chart. With the loss of Darryl Stonum for the year to his DUIshirt, there are very few explosive returners on the roster. Grady may have the shiftiness to make a few guys miss, but no one here has the flat-out speed to take one to the house. Again, we should hope for competence here and let the chips fall as they may.

This has been a constant source of frustration this season, though not in the areas you'd expect. Castoff Jeremy Gallon has developed into a sure-handed punt returner after being a travesty the past two years. Though he can't make a ton of yardage after fielding most punts (largely due to the spread/rugby punt formation), Gallon has caught everything that's catchable without any crippling fumbles. I don't know how the coaching staff managed this, but it's a testament to their skills.

Kickoff returns are another story. For whatever reason, the coaches have Vincent Smith as the primary kick returner. Smith is emphatically not a kick returner. Not only does he lack the prototypical speed to take it to the house, he barely gets beyond the 20 yard line on most returns. Michigan is currently 111th in kickoff returns and averaging just over 18 yards per return. What's odd is that the current make-up of the roster is that of speedy slot receiver types that are great in space. You'd think that someone (Grady, Dileo, etc) would be a viable replacement, but for whatever reason, Hoke has elected to use the team's #1 running back--a guy who couldn't take a long run to the house because he's just not built like that--as the primary kick returner. If I had a dollar for every time I screamed at the TV because Smith was returning a kickoff, I would have 7 dollars.

Grand Statement of Optimism: Gallon can catch punts and doesn't make my eyes bleed.

Grand Statement of Pessimism: Vincent Smith on kickoff returns makes my eyes bleed. Same amount of eye blood loss.

Wet Owl sez:

Mid-season report
Though it hasn't been pretty, the special teams have mostly gotten the job done. Clear improvement from Gibbons is an added bonus but the lack of Wile appearances bothers me. If the team can correct its coverage issues on kickoffs and switch to a rugby punt formation, special teams could be something we don't have to constantly think and worry about.

Grand Statement of Optimism: Hagerup will get better. Gibbons is functional. Wile can force touchbacks on kickoffs.

Grand Statement of Pessimism: Vincent Smith. Eye bleeding.

Wet Owl sez:

Ed. Note: In keeping with the series, I was going to do a coaches progress report, but I think most of that content would be redundant as it's already covered in the offense and defense posts.

SDSU 2011: Where Denard can run

San Diego State 7 - #22 Michigan 28

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

My family and friends have always made fun of me because, in their words, "You won't do anything until your brother does it first." For proof, see: boot cut jeans, Sigur Ros, shoulder strap backpacks, being born. To an extent, they're right. I am notoriously hard-headed and set in my ways. If something isn't an immediate upgrade (and sometimes, even when it is but if I'm in a particularly ornery mood), I shun suggestions in favor of the status quo.

Before Michigan's season opener against Western Michigan, Al Borges said that the first play from scrimmage would probably be a power run. It was a carry by Denard Robinson. Against lowly Eastern Michigan, Denard ran the ball 26 times, despite the coaching staff's insistence that he carry the ball less this year. Against San Diego State, Denard carried the ball 21 times. What was clear to everyone else prior to the season is now clear to Borges: Denard Robinson is an immediate and noticeable upgrade over any other option on the Michigan offense.

The use of Denard in the running game is necessitated, however, by his total inability to throw in this system. Whether its early-season jitters, a lack of confidence in his reads, or a clearer display of the inaccuracy he showed last year, through four games, Denard's struggles in Borges passing system are no fluke. Robinson followed up a 7/18, 2 TD, 1 INT game against EMU with a 8/17, 93 yard, 2 INT game against a San Diego State defense that was 72nd in defensive pass efficiency heading into Saturday's matchup.

But as the score indicated, all was not gloomy in Ann Arbor. The defense was able to stuff an offense that had averaged 38 points per game (albeit against mediocre competition). They held SDSU star back Ronnie Hillman nominally in check (5.2 YPC on 21 carries; he was averaging 6.5 YPC coming into Saturday's matchup). And uninspiring senior Ryan Lindley completed less than half of his passes for a pedestrian 5.3 YPA. He was plagued by drops, but for the most part, Michigan covered well, got pressure, and once again looked like a competent defense, which for the next 3 years will be the greatest compliment levied toward this unit.

Bullets

• Blake Countess can cover. After Troy Woolfolk got injured for the 27th time this season, Countess came into the game over Courtney Avery who struggled in pass coverage. San Diego State tested Countess by throwing at him as much as possible. For the most part, he held up and showed not only good coverage skills but solid tackling fundamentals. I would not be surprised if Countess rockets up the depth chart and even finds himself in the starting rotation soon.
• For the second week in a row, Michigan didn't bring many blitzes. Greg Mattison either felt the team was performing well in their base defense or didn't want to show new blitz packages, but what was a heavy blitzing defense in the first two games has been relatively subdued in the last two games, especially once the score was no longer in doubt.
• Vincent Smith had his two best runs of his Michigan career in this game. On the one, he sneaked through a hole in the offensive line that didn't exist and ran for 32 yards. The second was his scatbacking for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. This is the performance that excited Michigan fans during Smith's freshman year.
• Stephen Hopkins has officially fumbled his way out of the running back rotation. He should get little to no carries for the rest of the year because doesn't give the team anything they can't get anywhere else and isn't reliable enough holding onto the football.
• Am I the only one that's worried about the coaching staff calling Denard's number on every third and short? If the idea is to keep Denard healthy, always running him between the tackles on third and short is the best way to get him injured. He's running directly into swarms of linebackers that are taking shots at him. Eventually, this will take Denard out of a game.
• I'll have to rewatch the game, but Will Campbell appeared to have a decent game. Caveats about the size of SDSU's offensive line aside, any progress from Campbell is a positive.
• Brendan Gibbons, to no one's surprise, missed another field goal. That Matt Wile didn't attempt that kick is discouraging, though I expect the coaches will give him a shot in the coming games. Gibbons is simply not a functional field goal kicker.

Next week
On Saturday, the atrocious Minnesota Gophers, who are 1-3 with losses to North Dakota State and New Mexico State, come to Ann Arbor. This is the lockiest lock of the Big Ten season. Michigan should trounce these guys.

What to expect: The 2011 special teams

A breakdown of expected results in 2011. Previously: The offense, the defense

Placekicking
You all know the story from last year, but it bears repeating:  Seth Broekhuizen and Brendan Gibbons were a combined 4/14 on field goals, missed two extra points, and were so bad that the offense had to go for it on 4th down in some ridiculous situations. Due to their performance, Michigan extended a scholarship offer to a number of kickers, eventually landing Californian Matt Wile. Word out of camp is that Gibbons will be kicking shorter field goals, and Wile will handle longer kicks. Wake me when it's over.

Gibbons, like the 2008 two-headed quarterback monster Threetidan before him, is someone I would be happy never to see take the field again. Throughout the season last year, Rich Rodriguez frequently said that it was the mental side of things holding the kickers back, but after a point, you just accept that these guys can't get it done. If Wile can't overtake Gibbons by the end of the year, something has gone horribly wrong. I don't know much about the transition from high school to college as a kicker (the goal posts are wider in high school, but I'm not sure if there's a historical falloff for incoming freshmen kickers), Wile was 10/13 his senior season with a long of 49 yards. For perspective, neither Broekhuizen nor Gibbons hit a field goal longer than 37 yards last year. Wile should be an immediate upgrade.

Projecting how these two will kick throughout the year is tough (How many opportunities will they get? How long will the kicks be? etc), but it's worth venturing a guess. While Gibbons is being given a shot early on, I expect him to struggle, making 2/4 or some other uninspiring performance, opening the door for Wile to assume the permanent gig. By the year's end, Michigan's kickers will be somewhere in the combined range of 18/24. The team took remarkably few field goals last year, and rightfully so. Hoke's more conservative approach will see the team taking a lot more chances in the kicking game, and if Wile proves a noticeable improvement over last year (he has to be, right?), that shouldn't be such a harrowing experience.

For what it's worth, Wile will also be handling kickoff duties, which should be uneventful.  If he has the leg to get the ball into the endzone on kickoffs, that would be a bonus.

Punting
Last year, Michigan replaced the irreplaceable Zoltan Mesko with freshman punter Will Hagerup. Hagerup had an erratic season, but ended it with a 44-yard average. Everyone was happy with Hagerup and excited to see his progression until he got himself suspended for five games for the dreaded undisclosed violation of team rules. Hagerup was in and out of trouble last year. Hopefully this is a trend that won't continue.

In his absence, Wile will be handling punting duties. Here, best case scenario is no terrible shanks. Even if Wile doesn't boom the ball down the field like Hagerup can, as long as he doesn't commit any huge errors, Michigan should be able to sneak by the first half of the season with Wile puting. When Hagerup returns, punting should be a strong part of Michigan's game, and given Hoke's Carr-like tendencies, an integral part of the gameplan.

Punt/kick returns
Per Michigan's recently released two-deep, the usual suspects return for punt and kick returns. For the former, Junior Hemingway, Drew Dileo, Jeremy Gallon, and Martavious Odoms are listed as return men. How Hoke deploys the various punt returners will be interesting. The last three seasons have been plagued by dropped punts and catastrophic mistakes on special teams. Hemingway and Odoms have both proven themselves to be competent catchers, but neither are particularly explosive on punt returns--though Odoms' returns late last season would be to differ. My guess is that Dileo, who was recruited specifically for punt returns, will be the primary returner by season's end, unless he experiences the same drops and mistakes of the last three years.

As for kick returns, Gallon, Kelvin Grady, and Vincent Smith are listed on the depth chart. With the loss of Darryl Stonum for the year to his DUIshirt, there are very few explosive returners on the roster. Grady may have the shiftiness to make a few guys miss, but no one here has the flat-out speed to take one to the house. Again, we should hope for competence here and let the chips fall as they may.

What to expect
The word for special teams this season is competence. For three years, we've watched this Michigan team fumble and bumble basically every special teams play that didn't feature Zoltan kicking the ball to the moon. If the kickers are competent, that means 3-6 more points per game. If the returners are competent, that means better starting field position and more possessions. This year, all signs point toward competence. But don't expect much more.