Wide nine defensive front

At this point, even the most casual observer can see when Frank Clark goes tearing around the edge with no consideration of passing lanes. But while rewatching the CMU game, I noticed a play in which Mario Ojemudia and Brennen Beyer did the same, only in this instance, Greg Mattison called for the reckless rush from his defensive ends.

With CMU facing a third and ten in the second quarter, Mattison called for a formation that was all the buzz in the NFL two years ago: the wide nine. The formation is named because of the alignment of the defensive ends, who are playing "nine tech", or aligned outside of the tight ends. Even if there aren't tight ends (like on this play), the DEs still play at the nine tech. This is a pure pass-rushing formation.

Prior to the snap, the inside receiver from CMU's bunch formation motions into the backfield. Ojemudia and Beyer remain at the nine tech, but Beyer actually slides a few steps inside. My guess is that he lined up outside of the motion man in the original formation and moved after the offensive shift.

At the snap, Ojemudia rockets off the line and sheds the right tackle (highlighted; bottom). Beyer engages with the left tackle (highlighted; top) but will quickly shed him to get into the backfield. Neither player is considering their run fill responsibilities, opening huge holes between the offensive tackles and guards.

CMU is running a strongside lead iso, and because of the defensive front, Michigan has completely vacated the strongside B gap. You can see Ojemudia and Beyer now both closing in on the backfield, but neither has the momentum to get to the running back. Meanwhile, CMU's lead blocker has attempted to block one of Michigan's DTs who was already falling to the ground.

Central's fullback (#49) is now falling behind the ball carrier (#6). Without the lead blocker, CMU's running back is staring down Joe Bolden.

Bolden freezes and allows Central's running back to bounce outside.

Michigan has reinforcements rallying to the ball, including Ojemudia who you can see chasing the play. As a side note, how nice is it to see seven Michigan defenders in this screen?

The play ends here-ish.

Video

Takeaway
Mattison can somewhat safely call for the wide nine in this scenario. With a chance to get Central off of the field, giving up 5-8 yards on a scramble or, as is the case here, designed run, won't hurt Michigan. But don't expect to see this strategy employed against Braxton Miller or Kain Colter. This play is designed to have the defensive ends disregard their run responsibilities in favor of getting into the backfield. The five-wide underneath zone defenders act as the safety valve if the offense checks into a play that will attack the relentless pass rush. However, had the CMU fullback blocked Bolden, Delonte Hollowell would have been forced to come downhill and make a tackle in the middle of the field, so this is still a risky proposition.

This play forces me to reconsider at least some of Frank Clark's irresponsible pass rush. Mattison values getting to the quarterback with only four pass rushers enough to install the wide nine. But Clark's history does not reveal many of these situations. Chances are good that Clark takes this aspect of the defense as a green light to so consistently ignore his run fits.

No Surprises

Central Michigan 9 - Michigan 59

Courtney Sacco | AnnArbor.com

Michigan had an uneventful offseason, at least with regards to recent history. There were no questions about the starting quarterback, no concerns over walk-ons, and the incoming recruiting class was viewed as depth chart fodder rather than necessary reinforcements. Such is the arrival of Brady Hoke. So Michigan trounces Central Michigan in the season opener without any notable injuries or hiccups, and we all shrug. Well, most people shrug and I get panicky about the offensive line.

The box score says domination: 242 rushing yards on 47 carries (5.1 YPC), 221 passing yards on 21 attempts (10.5 YPA), 10 of 15 on third down conversions, and CMU averaged only 3.7 yards per play. But, like Holly Anderson's piece on Jadaveon Clowney's uninspiring 2013 debut says, "You already know that Week 1 college football games aren't all that useful in the discerning sports fan's quest to consume actual, compelling football … It's fun to be able to take one data point and draw a line to anywhere."

Per usual, my data points tends toward fear. My confidence in Greg Mattison, Brady Hoke, and the defensive unit could not be higher. Two seasons of transforming the scraps Rich Rodriguez left on the defensive side of the ball belies any doubt in this coaching staff defensively. Saturday served as confirmation of this belief: short the team's most impactful starter (Jake Ryan), the defense smothered CMU on short fields surrendered because of turnovers and never allowed a drive to exceed 59 yards (that one ending in a 33-yard field goal).

The concern comes from the other side of the ball, in spite of the team posting 59 points on 12 possessions; one punt and three interceptions were the only drives that Michigan came up empty. The game started inauspiciously as Devin Gardner threw a Denardian interception: he determined where to throw the ball before the play had started. His second giveaway was similar: he saw single coverage on the outside with Jeremy Gallon and decided to throw it regardless that Gallon was blanketed. While on the subject, that Gallon couldn't get on top of a CMU cornerback on a fly route does not bode well for his presence as the team's primary deep threat.

Those turnovers were disappointing but not the primary cause for concern: the offensive line's continued inability to get push on under-center runs. Michigan's running game remains either inconsistent or ineffectual. After one game with a new crop of interior lineman, speculating either with certainty is fruitless, but following last year's debacle, optimism (at least around these parts; shock!) is slim. There are caveats for the stumbling running game. Some of it appears schematic: Michigan ran into an overloaded defense several times when Gardner should have checked into a weakside run at the line of scrimmage. That could change as the season progresses. But other issues, such as Gallon's inability to get over the top of CMU's defense, allowing the opposing safeties to creep into the box, may be longer lasting. Or, this could have been the first game-time action from a new crop of interior line starters that just hasn't gelled together yet. But where's the fun in that? Largely irrelevant data point --> Doom.

There were clear positives--pass blocking, Derrick Green, the return of Toussaint, CMU's 2.3 YPA rushing on 29 carries, and Devin Funchess to name a few--but those were expected (perhaps known) before the season. The real insights from this game come from the mistakes, which I'm confident did not escape Hoke, Borges, and Mattison, and should be rectified, or at least patched up, in short order.

Bullets

• My friend and I had a bet on what pass Shane Morris would throw his first interception. He said the third pass, I said the fifth. I won. A relatively uneventful debut from Morris, but it's obvious both where his upside stands and what his current flaws are.
• Toussaint turned in a decent game but was still not the dominating back that we saw in 2011. He had few holes to work with, but made the most of what he was given. If the interior line can't get itself together, Toussaint's season will look more like 2012 than 2011. Also of note, his pass blocking was atrocious in this game.
• Michigan's defense acquitted itself well as a whole, but the zone passing defense proved problematic (perhaps expected because both starting safeties were out). CMU's greatest offensive success came by throwing intermediate routes that the underneath defenders didn't sink on and the safeties weren't reading quickly enough. Northwestern looms large.
• Frank Clark. Man. Lane integrity. Please. Otherwise, keep being fast.
• Jibreel Black was a non-factor in the running game and made a few penetrating moves in the pass game. I don't know how his skillset will matchup against teams with heftier front lines, but for now, concerns about his size as the starting 3-tech are squashed.
• It may be prudent for Michigan not to put a punt returner on the field. Just rush 11 guys at the punter and don't worry about getting any return yards. The returner isn't getting anything meaningful on rugby punts anyway and the team avoids Dennis Norfleet fumbling the ball on the 10 yard line.
• I believe (perhaps hope) that Borges kept most of his tricks in the bag in week one. With Notre Dame coming to town next week, having a whole package of plays they haven't seen yet could pay dividends.

Next Week
Michigan gets Notre Dame under the lights. You know what happened last year, but against Temple, the Irish did not overwhelm. Temple > CMU, but Michigan's Week 1 > ND's Week 1. With Tommy Rees back under center for the Irish, and the loss of Notre Dame's top-two rushers from last year, Michigan's defense should smother Notre Dame, enabling the offense to slog through the game picking up points when they can.

Denouement 2012

#18 Michigan 28 - #10 South Carolina 33

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

There are no storylines here or poorly relayed personal anecdotes that can be shoehorned into a story about yesterday's Outback Bowl. After two years of getting to and even winning bowl games on the strength of miraculous wins that were unsustainable, it's only fitting that Michigan finally arrive on the other end of the spectrum. Even more appropriately, the secondary, which had been heralded as one of the nation's best, was finally shown to be the straw house that we all suspected it was; the unit that was largely responsible for yesterday's loss. Michigan was outgained badly, lost the turnover battle, revealed a still-inept secondary, and had an offense that averaged only 4.3 yards per play. They deserved to lose and they did.

For most, this game marked the final appearance of Jordan Kovacs and Denard Robinson in a Michigan uniform, regardless of the outcome. For me, this is the end of my most frustrating season as a Michigan fan since my senior year (2007). When Rich Rodriguez was the head coach, it was easy to dismiss the losses and near misses: those teams simply weren't very good. There was solace that could be taken in inevitability. This season was supposed to be the swansong of the program's most electric star with a revamped defense and deadly offense. Instead, it was a team that was closer to being 6-7 than 10-3. And in the end, it was the team's defensive anchor who was badly beaten in coverage on the losing touchdown of the bowl game.

I'm happy this season is over and Michigan ushers out another class of Rich Rodriguez players. The Borges/Denard transition has been an outright failure, but anyone could see yesterday that Borges has a plan for this offense and there exists a path forward. The defense was more distressing--a safety blitz that Mattison dialed up early resulted in an unsound secondary leading to yet another huge South Carolina play, for example. The secondary showed either its lack of talent or lack of experience, getting beaten over and over again for big plays. Raymon Taylor showed his youth, and it may be time for even me to admit that Courtney Avery can't guard anyone in man coverage.

Next year, this team only gets better at just about every position save left tackle. The losses of Kovacs, Denard, and Kenny Demens will be covered by players already on the depth charts, while replacements to the likes of Elliott Mealer and JT Floyd will be automatic upgrades. The hardest spot to fill will be Craig Roh--and Taylor Lewan, about which more later--but Jibreel Black has acquitted himself nicely this season and stands primed to slide into the strongside defensive end position next year. Devin Gardner's early flashes of brilliance gave way to the inconsistency that plagued his career to date, but even he will be pushed by Shane Morris early and often during the season.

There exists a path forward and Hoke, Mattison, and Borges are leading this team down the right path. The further this program moves from the three treacherous years of Rodriguez recruiting, the better off it becomes.

Bullets

• Though the story that most publications will have you believe is one of Jadeveon Clowney flatlining Vincent Smith, the dynamic defensive end was pretty quiet all game because Taylor Lewan was out to get himself some first-round money. Lewan will be the biggest loss of the offseason with only faint hopes of finding an adequate replacement from the collection of freshmen and Michael Schofield.
• Speaking of NFL monies, Denard can be an NFL running back and probably did a lot of good for his draft stock in this game. What was most impressive about his running from the halfback position was how decisive his cuts were. Obviously, we knew that already, but seeing it from a different position really illuminated how effective he can be at the next level.
• Brendan Gibbons will be a big asset next season.
• The Michigan defensive line absolutely dominated the South Carolina offensive line, as evidenced by their complete abandonment of the running game. Remove the one or two blown assignments by defensive ends on the inverted veer, and this defensive front was dominant.
• Except when trying to sack the QB.
• Al Borges finally proved he doesn't know how to use Denard with those two-point conversions. The loss of Denard will have one very positive effect on this offense: Borges will no longer fumble around with personnel that he has no idea how to properly utilize. That said, Denard's one pass acted to reconcile some of Borges' shortfallings and the questions about his playcalling: Denard still cannot throw with his injury.
• If you watched the game on TV, you already know this, but those jerseys were an abject failure. I'm not one to complain about this sort of thing, but the numbers and names were illegible and neon. Hopefully this teaches the athletic department some sort of lesson, but probably not.

Next Week (?)
BASKETBALL!

Preparing for the Outback Bowl

Since people are finally starting to ask whether or not I'm maintaining this blog anymore--and why not, my last post was three weeks ago and was about Saved By the Bell--it's probably time for me to actually write something. The explanation for the absence comes down to three main factors: school, holidays, and general malaise. The first two are pretty easy to explain, but the third cuts a little deeper and has specifically to do with this team.

Last year around this time, I spent every week leading up to the bowl game rewatching Virginia Tech games and performing my duties of identifying where Michigan should attack/how Michigan should defend Virginia Tech because Al Borges and Greg Mattison are known readers of this blog and often call me personally to thank me for the valuable insight. After Michigan's godsend 23-20 overtime win, Michigan fans complained about everything except Frank Clark and the final score, and rightfully so. It seemed as if the coaches did zero scouting before the bowl game. They hadn't run anything new and Virginia Tech had no trouble stopping it; or running all over the defense, whatever the case may be.

It finally dawned on me after the Ohio State game: Michigan's coaches--specifically Al Borges--do not go into the film room to find weaknesses in the opponent. Instead, they go into the film room to confirm their playcalling bias. Greg Mattison looks for ways to defend opposing offenses because he has to; else Greg Robinson. Unfortunately, 2012 Air Force and 2011 Ohio State happens and we're left wondering where these schemes actually came from, but for the most part, Mattison has shown both in-game adaptability and some level of foresight. Borges, well, I imagine this is how bowl game preparations go:

Borges: "You guys, you guys, I want you to see something that I found on tape."
Mattison: "Come on Brady, Al has something to show us. Again."
Borges: "I'm super cereal, you guys. I  saw something. Look:"
*Borges plays tape of Vanderbilt completing a deep pass against South Carolina*
Borges: "See guys, we can totally do that on every play. I'm gonna call a lot of deep passes."
*Mattison and Hoke walk out of the film room. Mattison intimates that Hoke should probably wear a headset on the sideline*

Many of the games under Borges' playcalling have been offensive trudges because he can't identify weaknesses in the opposition and believes that his playcalling is the best playcalling, regardless of scheme or personnel. To an extent, you want a coordinator who thinks similarly, but Borges has been unable to make concessions for an offense that doesn't have the skill to play his style of football.

So against South Carolina, I expect another offensive performance like the one against Virginia Tech last year or Notre Dame this year. Borges knows what he's going to call. He knew it before he even heard what team Michigan would face in the bowl game. Except he's spent a few weeks in the film room trying to identify the few defensive formations that South Carolina will show that keys the offense to take shot deep down the field. Expect to be disappointed by the number of contested downfield throws Michigan attempts in the bowl game.

This is a pessimistic outlook, though it's one that the prevailing evidence has afforded me. But I realize that it's also overly negative because I just don't like this incarnation of Michigan football; I don't like watching them play. Sacrilege as it may be to type, I'm sick of Denard Robinson. I'm tired of him being Michigan's best player, someone who incessantly turns the ball over. I'm tired of pointing out the inadequacies of Michigan's offensive line. I'm tired of not having a wide receiver deserving of #1. I'm tired of watching games and thinking, "Wait, who's number 11?" I'm tired of people bitching about jersey numbers changing every week. I'm already sick of Ohio State being better than Michigan.

School has been the easy excuse for me to write less than normal this season, when the reality is I just haven't enjoyed this season very much. The team feels dysfunctional in a lot of ways and the talent still isn't able to compensate for those problems. Al Borges still can't figure out this offensive personnel, and the defense isn't good enough to save this team from itself. Things are getting better, albeit slowly. So I'll preview the Outback Bowl and write up some sort of denouement for the game/season, and then spend most of the offseason recharging and hoping that something changes in 2013 because being an underwhelming, lucking-to-be 8-4 outfit is not the kind of thing that inspires much in the way of production.

We've been here before

This would have been up yesterday, but I spent the entire day driving back from Chicago on a MegaBus which said it had WiFi but definitely did not have WiFi.
Michigan 21 - Ohio 26

Daniel Brenner | AnnArbor.com

And so it finally, unmercifully, comes to an end. After two years of miserable playcalling, shoddy quarterback play, and more turnovers than you can shake a stick at, Michigan can finally say goodbye to Denard Robinson, he going out exactly the way he played: turning the ball over on a crucial drive. Al Borges will take the blame for the playcalling in this game, but he's not the one giving the ball away on three second-half drives. He's not the dual-threat senior quarterback that in his third year as a starter doesn't know how to protect the ball. But he is the one that's telling the Buckeyes exactly what's going to happen just by the personnel on the field.

I can understand Borges' thinking on playcalls in this game. I spent most of the weekend playing darts at various bars around Chicago. When you're an amateur playing another amateur in Cricket, there's a very specific strategy you should employ to ensure the best possible results: aim for the bullseye. The logic shows that with natural variance and drift on your shots, you're just a likely to hit one of the six other numbers you're supposed to, reducing rounds that you don't mark at all and optimizing your ability to get lucky. I don't throw this way despite my status as Amateur. If you're relying on noise, you'll never truly get better; push yourself to do the hard stuff and eventually it'll come naturally.

Unfortunately for Michigan, Denard and Devin on the field at the same time is not noise as Borges likely thinks of it (trick plays that are just as likely to get you zero yards as 60). Against OSU, Borges was throwing at the triple 20 over and over again and kept hitting triple 1. If you can hit your spot every time (say, running under-center power on third and three), there's no problem attacking that spot repeatedly, but Borges needs to accept that the status of his offensive line and running backs is not such that you can confidently rely on. Take the yards where you can get them and play your best strategy.

It was hard to watch this game and see Michigan's players just continually beaten, both physically and mentally. Stephen Hopkins was abhorrent and played perhaps the worst game I've ever seen from a fullback. The offensive line was tossed around like ragdolls. Michigan's corners completely unable to guard anyone and JT Floyd getting turned around like he did against Penn State two years ago. At times, this was men against boys, something I had thought was extinct after how well the team had played the last two years.

So now there's a bowl game left, but it feels like a punishment more than a reward. I don't want to watch this football team play another game. I'm tired of seeing the offensive line lost and unfit to play with the elite. I'm tired of Denard Robinson. I'm tired of JT Floyd. I'm tired of not having a viable running back on the roster. We're officially ushering a new era after this season: Borges will get his passing-capable QB, Hoke gets his offensive line of fridges with feet, the secondary rids itself of its most inadequate piece, and the more time that passes, the further we get from Rich Rodriguez's recruiting disasters.

2013 will hold better things for a Michigan team that was probably a lot better than its record showed. Having even a remedial offense coupled with an all-world defense is the way that LSU and Notre Dame and Alabama have won national championships in the recent past. They were bolstered by an excellent running game, the likes of which Michigan can't match, but perhaps the new offensive linemen will be a revelation. I'm excited for the future of this team, but I'm tired of where they've stalled this season.

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Bullets

• Lawdy lord, the defense. This defense rules. I cannot wait to see them in the future. They bend-don't-break'ed an offense that if you're bending, you're typically breaking. Jake Ryan's ability to stay with Braxton Miller's jukes in space is a revelation. Have fun on Sunday's sweet prince.
• Howeva, the defensive line was struggling to hold up against double teams the way they had in previous weeks. That allowed OSU offensive linemen to release to the second level and seal off Michigan's linebackers. That ended poorly for Michigan and well for Carlos Hyde.
• The Wolverine defense will get way better without JT Floyd, though. His weakness as a cover corner significantly limits Mattison's schemes. Next year we should see the defense take another step up when Mattison feels confident leaving Countess and Taylor out on islands.
• No seriously, Stephen Hopkins was horrible. How he isn't smart enough to play fullback, I'll never know.
• Devin finally came back down to earth. One of the main reasons is that the OSU defensive line play gap-sound and didn't allow him to break the pocket much. Gardner had no where to run on drop backs, something that they clearly gameplanned for.
• Speaking of stopping QB scrambles: I hate rushing only two defensive linemen on third-and-long. That never seems to work. It allows the opposing quarterbacks to sit in the pocket and receivers to find holes in the zone defense which always develop with enough time. I think I remember Michigan doing this twice and neither time did it provide any results. Mattison, stick with your gut: blitz from one side of the field and force a scramble into your zone defenders like you've done all year.

Preview: Ohio 2012

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#19 Michigan vs. Ohio

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ABC

Forecast: High-30s, 0% chance of rain 

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Last week
Ohio State 21 - Wisconsin 14 (OT). Ohio State continued its meaningless undefeated season last week by beating Wisconsin in overtime. Wisconsin's third starting quarterback this season, Curt Phillips, acquitted himself well by completing 14 of 25 passes for 154 yards and 1 TD. Meanwhile, Monte Ball did his Monte Ball thing by averaging  4.9 YPC on 39 (!!!) carries. Sacks removed, Wisconsin actually managed 4.69 YPC as a team. Those sacks may be what won Ohio State the game. Defensive end terror John Simon was nigh unblockable, marking the team's four sacks. The rest of the team managed only five tackles for loss.

Braxton Miller had a typical day: 10/18 through the air for 97 yards, and 20 carries for 70 yards. Carlos Hyde also had a good game averaging 5.8 YPC on 15 carries. Despite these performances, Ohio State was only able to manage 14 points in regulation. In overtime, the Buckeyes got away with a couple of glaring holding calls that allowed them to march into the endzone on four plays. And Wisconsin couldn't move the ball at all, resulting in an undramatic extra period.

Offense vs. Ohio State

Despite the Buckeyes' undefeated season, this is not a vintage OSU defense. A quick rundown of their statistical rankings proves as much: 17th in rushing defense, 28th in pass efficiency defense, 38th in total defense, 34th in scoring defense, 34th in sacks, and tied for 77th in tackles for loss. Those are good numbers, but they're not typical Ohio State numbers.

The defense is led by defensive end John Simon who is a scary dude. On the season, he has 22 solo tackles, 22 assists, 14.5 TFLs, and 9 sacks, in addition to 4 PBUs and a forced fumble. The scary thing for Michigan's offense is that Simon will probably be lined up across from Michael Schofield who I spent the better part of the first few games this season bemoaning his lack of speed and strength. This could be bad. Next to Simon is manchild Jonathan Hankins, an NFL-sized nose tackle that has lived up to every bit of his hype this season. Hankins has 23 solo tackles, 29 assists, 4 TFLs, and a sack, but his biggest impact is the ability to get into the backfield and disrupt plays.

So running the ball on Saturday is going to be difficult. Given the weakness of Michigan's offensive line and the strength of the Buckeye D-line, moving the ball on the ground will take some sort of randomness. Fortunately, Michigan showed a whole bunch of new running formations against Iowa with Denard Robinson in the backfield intended to get to the outside of the field where Michigan can make hay against OSU.

the Buckeye linebacker corps is led by sophomore Ryan Shazier who leads the team with 68 solo tackles. He's also marked 14.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 1 interception, and 12 PBUs. He is the heart and soul of OSU's defense, but he's also mistake prone. If Michigan can get him moving in the wrong direction on counter plays, he's liable to overrun plays. The LOLZ from OSU's defense come at the middle linebacker spot where converted fullback Zach Boren has taken over the starting position. Boren began the season as a fullback by moved to the other side of the ball when the existing linebackers proved to be miserable. Think Rich Rodriguez moving Mark Moundros to linebacker. How did that turn out? At the final linebacker spot is senior Etienne Sabino, who feels like he's been around forever. Sabino is and always has been good-not-great, and his numbers this season back this up: 24 solo tackles, 19 assists, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 INT.

So despite a hilarious middle linebacker situation, OSU's front seven is relatively stout. The weakness of the defense is, shockingly, in pass defense. When's the last time OSU didn't have a fleet of lightning fast corners that locked down receivers? Sophomore Bradley Roby and senior Travis Howard are the two Buckeye corners. Howard is the better shutdown man but Roby has more physical gifts. And neither of the starting safeties Christian Bryant and CJ Barnett are particularly threatening. Of concern for Ohio State is that three members of the secondary are in the team's top-five tacklers. They allow a lot of completions: against Big Ten competition, the OSU secondary has allowed QBs to throw for 144/256 through the air (56%) with 10 TDs and 6 INTs. Calibrate for the awfulness of Big Ten quarterbacks, and you have a secondary that's giving up a lot of completions and not particularly threatening with regards to turnovers.

With Michigan's newfound ability to throw the ball, this matchup actually slides slightly toward Michigan. OK, so Michigan's wide receivers are bad, but Michigan may not need to break a ton of long plays if OSU is allowing a bunch of mid-range throws that Devin Gardner has proven to be really accurate on. Running is going to be a harrowing affair, so getting John Simon blocked on drop backs (paging AJ Williams or Devin Funchess' non-existant blocking abilities) and giving Gardner time to survey the field and possibly scramble for first downs will be crucial for Michigan's offensive success.

Defense vs. Braxton Miller

So a few years ago, Michigan fans had to listen to that ridiculous stat that Denard Robinson accounted for 197% of Michigan's offense and every time someone said that, I got especially stabby. That receivers are not "responsible" for any of the yards on catches and YAC is dumb, but I digress. Now its Ohio State who has a quarterback responsible for their entire offense, but because Miller is an OSU quarterback and never gets injured, and because the Big Ten is atrocious and OSU hasn't played a decent defense to date, you don't hear the same conditionals about Miller's play: he is unequivocally awesome if you ask the media. And OK, fine, he's really good but he also has obvious limitations.

Miller is completing just 56% of his passes on the season with 14 TDs and 6 INTs. His yardage total is also fairly impressive but largely because safeties are bugging out against the run and getting caught out of position. He also has Devin Smith to throw to, which doesn't hurt. You might remember Smith from making one of the best catches of the season in week one. Or from any one of his long touchdown catches this season (he's averaging 19.8 yards per reception this year).

The rest of the OSU receiver corps is acceptable without a ton of gamebreakers. Corey Brown leads the team in receptions but is basically just a possession guy. And the name that you already hate and probably will more after Saturday's game is Jake Stoneburner, a senior wide receiver whose catches are all one yard further than the necessary yardage for a first down.

So that's passing which will be an annoyance but won't be a major threat to Michigan's defense like it was in last year's The Game. Beating the Buckeyes stops and ends with stopping their running game, which is no small feat. The offensive line starts four juniors and a senior and don't have any particularly weak spots. Combine that with rumbleback Carlos Hyde and Miller's top-end speed, and you've got a scary offense. Miller leads the team in carries and yards (207 and 1,416 respectively) and is averaging 5.9 YPC. He has breakaway speed, but he's less effective between the tackles and among defenders where he doesn't have the shake that someone like Denard does. Keeping outside leverage on Miller is essential, and hopefully Mattison has the defense better prepared to maintain the QB than they did against Northwestern. Hyde, meanwhile, is averaging 5.2 YPC this season and makes a lot of yardage after contact.

The one thing that has gone unmentioned is Greg Mattison who was Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida. Mattison has struggled with option teams in his two years at Michigan mostly because his gameplan is deficient heading into the game. He has something theoretical that he draws up which doesn't actually work. Against Meyer, you would expect Mattison's schemes to be more effective because of his familiarity with Meyer's schemes. If the linebackers and defensive ends properly execute whatever containment scheme Mattison has for the running game, I expect Michigan's playcalling on this side of the ball to produce good results against OSU.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Shut down Braxton Miller and don't turn the ball over. Despite Miller's gaudy numbers this season, the Buckeyes have had a tendency to have sub-par offensive outputs. Given the state of the Big Ten, that's especially damning. If Michigan can allow Miller to gain over 4 yards per carry instead of 5 or 6, OSU will eventually sputter out offensively. On the other side of the ball, Gardner needs to build upon the performances he's shown the last three weeks. Michigan has new wrinkles in the offense now that will allow Denard and a fleet of blockers to get to the outside, away from OSU's defensive strength. Hold onto the ball and Michigan can probably move the ball more consistently.

How does Ohio State win? Braxton Miller and sacks. Miller has to throw the ball a lot better than he has all season because Michigan's front seven is stout while the secondary will struggle against faster receivers like Devin Smith. If Michigan's gameplan isn't designed to shut down Miller, this will be an ugly, frustrating day. They also need a big performance from John Simon who, if he is going up against Schofield, will almost certainly be able to produce.

Arbitrary chance Michigan wins: 50%

Final Prediction. In my heart of hearts, I want to predict a Michigan victory. Gardner is playing really well, the defense has the speed to shut down OSU's rushing attack, and I firmly believe that Mattison will be a game changer. But... I just can't. This is Michigan and Ohio State in Columbus. Michigan has a QB who has been notoriously bad until the last three weeks. The Wolverine offensive line is bad. The defensive secondary is not good. And I can see nothing but Braxton Miller scampering for 19 yards over and over and over again. So if I'm being honest, 28-17 Ohio State. But like, fuck it, Michigan 23 - Ohio State 21.

Defending the speed option

Michigan got gashed on the ground a lot against Northwestern, but the one play that did consistent damage was the speed option. At the snap, Kain Colter and Venric Mark would both run to one side of the field and read (usually) the playside defensive end to determine whether or not to pitch the ball to the outside. Michigan spent a lot of the game forcing the pitch with no one outside to make the tackle, but that wasn't the only issue.

Northwestern is in a three-wide set with a tight end on the opposite side of the field and Venric Mark in the backfield. Michigan is in its nickel package. But before the ball is even snapped, you can see a huge problem: Michigan is badly outnumbered to the boundary side of the field. From the offensive center toward the boundary, Michigan has only four defenders. Nebraska has four men on the line of scrimmage, Colter, and Mark. There's absolutely no way Michigan can defend this play toward the sideline.

As the ball is snapped, Northwestern's center and right guard double Black, while the right tackle and tight end release to the second level to block Kovacs and Desmond Morgan. Brennan Beyer is left unblocked and is the player Colter is reading.

Beyer stays to the inside and forces a pitch outside to Mark. This is bad. The right guard is cut blocking Morgan and the tight end is headed straight for Kovacs.

Beyer is now in pursuit of Mark but has no chance. Morgan is Superman-ing over the right tackle. Kovacs is engaged with the tight end. The only player with any chance of making this tackle is JT Floyd and he's seven yards from the line of scrimmage and has to make up ground horizontally to get to where Mark is.

Kovacs keeps Mark to the inside of the field, but it doesn't really matter. There isn't anyone there to tackle him. Mark is now two yards past the line of scrimmage with a head of steam and Floyd is still five yards away. best case scenario, this is a six-yard gain.

But it's not because Floyd overruns the play.

Mark will scamper ahead for 30 yards.

Video

The Takeaway
The obvious problem here is the way that Michigan is aligned, but that's a function of playing a spread team. They're in man coverage against the receivers with a safety over the top who also defends against a bubble screen (4 players) and have four down linemen (8 players), leaving only three players to defend against this option look. This is one of the inherent dangers of playing option teams like this, but because Michigan is so outnumbered, it becomes even more important for Beyer (or whoever is left unblocked). Forcing Colter to keep pushes him back toward the strength of the defense and toward a spot on the field where Floyd can more easily come downhill and make a tackle. If Colter slows down at all, he'll be tackled by the pursuit defenders (who eventually tackle Mark 30 yards downfield). Michigan defended the pitch this way for a large part of the first three quarters before making the shift in the fourth. Option teams present these problems and its up to Mattison to have a better gameplan to defend basic parts of the opposing offense.

Mattison's strong safety blitz

Allow me to preempt this because I realize it's ludicrous: I've been a little disappointed with Greg Mattison this season. The work that he's done with a relatively young and inexperienced defensive unit has been remarkable, but it seems like his blitz packages have been lacking this season. Last year, Mattison used the Illinois game to debut what has become known as his okie blitz package, but there haven't been all that many new blitz packages this season.

Against Northwestern, Mattison broke out perhaps his most innovative blitz of the season (a strong safety zone blitz), which was returning poor results on third downs until he made a subtle tweak, about which more later.

When Michigan blitzed in this game, this is the blitz that they used. It was successful approximately once (on a really important third down), and shredded otherwise, both because of unfortunate play calls and also because Kain Colter is a wizard.

Northwestern comes out in a four-wide set with a running back in the backfield. Michigan is in its nickel package.

Before the snap, Michigan doesn't do a great job of disguising its blitz. Desmond Morgan is also bluffing at the blitz, and Kenny Demens is in a two-point stance as a defensive tackle and will drop into coverage. In any case, Colter can see this coming.

As the ball is snapped, Jake Ryan and Jordan Kovacs come on a blitz.

Frank Clark sucks up the right tackle opening a hole in the B gap. The offensive right guard blocks Ryan, giving Kovacs a clear lane to Colter.

This is where the problem develops with the blitz: Kovacs is coming from Colter's frontside and he's able to recognize the blitz and do a bunch of wonky Colter stuff...

Colter steps away from Kovacs, does some yackety sax, and finds a receiver open at the sticks for a first down.

I could show you pictures of how the play ends, but the video does it justice.


Michigan tried this same blitz a few different times with worse results. At least in the play above, Michigan forced Colter to make an athletic play to find a first down. On other blitzes, Northwestern simply pitched the ball outside for a big gain because Kovacs was out of position due to the blitz.

Late in the game, though, Northwestern had a 3rd and 8 and Mattison dialed up the same blitz with a subtle change: he flipped the field, allowing Kovacs and Ryan to blitz Colter's blindside for the first time. As you can see, this is almost the exact same alignment except everything is flipped: Demens and Roh switch sides of the line and Ryan and Kovacs have also flipped the field.

A forgotten classic

#24 Northwestern 31 - Michigan 38 (OT)

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Saturday's game will never go down as a classic. My freshman year of college, we had Braylon-fest, an improbable comeback against Michigan State. A few years later, Tate Forcier saw cover-zero and scampered 40 yards into the endzone before finding Greg Matthews on a circle route with 11 seconds left. The next two years, Denard Robinson broke Irish hearts in gif-able fashion. But these games are legendary as much because of the helmets that didn't have wings on them as the outcomes themselves.

The ending of Saturday's game was more improbable than any of those prior classics, but it will probably go forgotten. Beating Northwestern should be a certainty, not a cardiac event. Michigan's chances of playing for a Big Ten title this year are probably dead following yet another fortuitous (and incorrect) officiating call that went Nebraska's way. And this wasn't even a miraculous Denard Robinson performance during his senior season. This was a game that was uncomfortably close and probably ultimately meaningless.

Perhaps if I had been in the stadium, my impressions would change. By the time Michigan got the ball back with 18 seconds left, I was resigned to the team's fate: best case scenario was a long bomb followed by a coinflip field goal to tie the game because, let's be honest, Junior Hemingway ain't walking through that tunnel. But then a miraculous apparition appeared. Number 21 had the ball pinned to his shoulder, setting up the most vicious spiked ball in Michigan history. When overtime started, there was just a sense that Michigan would pull the game out. They had too much momentum, but more concretely, in overtime, always side with the team that has the 6'4" robobeast quarterback.

After Michigan scored in overtime and put the pressure on the Wildcat offense, the ensuing possession went about as well as you can hope for against an option team: 7 yard gain, 2 yard gain, 1 yard loss, 0 yard gain; game. Though Northwestern had been gashing the Wolverine defense on the speed option all day, they opted instead for a veer option. Jibreel Black beat a block, forced a cutback, and Kenny Demens treated Tyris Jones like an excited puppy jumping into its owner's arms after a month-long vacation.

This game was another good audition for Devin Gardner, but it highlighted something that appeared the week before. It seems like Al Borges treats Gardner differently, and not just in playcalling. Gardner gets to the line of scrimmage, surveys the field and calls audibles, and uses a hard count to draw the defense offsides. I refuse to believe that Michigan's three-year starter, senior quarterback can't make the same checks or keep the defense on its toes--it's possible, but seems unlikely--so the question becomes, why does Borges treat the two quarterbacks so differently?

Playing almost exclusively under center helps with a lot of these issues. Hard counts can be used under center more easily, but making checks at the line of scrimmage is something that we've seen Gardner do a few times in the last few weeks that Denard hasn't done once in two years. The other advantage of playing Gardner under center so frequently is getting the play in and lining up faster. With Denard in the game, Borges changes formations from I-formation sets featuring two tight ends and a fullback to shotgun looks with three and four wide receivers. That much rotation of personnel has resulted in a lot of wasted first-quarter timeouts when Denard is in the game. With Gardner playing, the offense just seems more complete, a function of Borges more than the anything the quarterbacks are doing.

Regardless of why the difference exists, it's a very real aspect of this offense now. The offense looks better under Gardner, which unfortunately just highlights how improperly Borges has been using Denard the last two years, but there's no need in fretting over that now. Next year looks a lot more encouraging after the last two weeks and Michigan is still technically in the running for the Big Ten Title this year. Go Minnesota. Go Iowa. Ugh.

Bullets

• Michigan struggled on defense in this game for a number of different reasons. Jake Ryan and Frank Clark both lost contain frequently which gave Northwestern big gains on the ground. In addition, and I think Mattison figured this out before the fourth quarter, but Michigan was defending the speed option in an unsound manner. The playside linebacker was always playing the quarterback, forcing a pitch to the running back who had nothing but blockers in front of him. I think Mattison assumed his corners and safeties could get off of their blocks on the outside the help contain the rushing attack, but Michigan's corners aren't very good at doing this. By the fourth quarter, Michigan started forcing the runs back inside.
• Michigan's third-down defensive struggles where a different matter. Mattison couldn't use his okie blitzes because Northwestern spreads the field too far. Instead, he drew up a strong safety blitz that was largely ineffective. I'll draw these up later this week, but Mattison finally figured out what the problem was: he kept bringing Jordan Kovacs on a safety blitz from Colter's frontside, allowing him to recognize the blitz and scramble around. The one time the blitz actually landed, it was because Mattison flipped the field and brought the blitz from Colter's blindside.
• Kain Colter is slippery. Michigan had him in the backfield a few different times but was unable to bring him down. Will Campbell pushed beyond the line of scrimmage only to see Colter scamper around and one of Michigan's defensive ends dip inside, giving up the edge and a huge rushing lane. This was the least disciplined defensive performance from Michigan we've seen all year, helped along by perhaps the best running quarterback Michigan has played.
• The interior of Michigan's offensive line is broken. At this point, you don't burn redshirts, but Michigan's offensive line may be the weakest unit on the entire team. This is also why Fitz Toussaint is broken. He won't break 100 yards per game once this season.
• I'll have to rewatch the game, but the linebacker rotation confused me. Michigan gave a lot of time to James Ross and Joe Bolden. Then again, Ondre Pipkins saw significant snaps again (and was much improved), so it may be that the defensive staff is willing to rolling the dice during the game more frequently in order to get these younger players some meaningful snaps.
• This was far and away Roy Roundtree's best game as a Wolverine in the last two years, and not just because of his miraculous, game-saving catch. He was getting separation, making shoestring catches, and showed a bit of open-field shiftiness.
• Michigan's secondary is very not good. I really worry about next week's matchup. Despite the fact that Iowa is terrible, they may have a decent pocket passer. Thomas Gordon has looked a stepped behind whoever he's defending for the last few weeks and JT Floyd didn't do much to alleviate fears that he's still too slow to keep up with Big Ten receivers. 
• Devin Funchess is tall, and thank god.

Next Week

Michigan takes on Iowa in a game that will be closer than it should be. Were it not for three Purdue turnovers, Iowa would have been summarily beaten. Purdue managed 490 yards, 8.0 YPA through the air, and 4.8 YPC on the ground. In contrast, Iowa had only 264 total yards, 5.3 YPA, and 2.4 YPC, and yet they only lost by 3 points. Michigan should win, but this game will expose the Wolverine secondary in a way that we haven't seen this season.

Frank Clark defending the bubble screen

The implicit difference in philosophy between Al Borges and Greg Mattison has been something I've watched all season, primarily regarding the bubble screen. Though Borges is reticent to throw it, if you watch the alignment of the defense, Mattison almost always accounts for it by aligning the defense with numbers to the outside. There was one play late against Minnesota, however, that showed a new formation that Mattison used to defend the bubble screen.

Michigan has already pulled away late in the fourth quarter, but the starting defensive lineup is still playing. Michigan is in its nickel package, and Minnesota comes out in a four-wide set. As you can see at the top of the screen, the Gophers have three receivers against Michigan's 2.5 defenders (the third is 15 yards from the line of scrimmage). Any offensive coordinator who sees this (and most Michigan fans) would immediately check to a bubble screen. Eight free yards, right?

But when the ball is snapped, rather than rush upfield, Frank Clark immediately looks out to the slot receiver to check if he bows out for the bubble screen.

Before the quarterback can release the ball, Clark is already running toward the slot receiver.

The ball is still int he air and Clark is only 5 yards from the receiver with a full head of steam.

When the receiver finally catches the ball, Clark is in his face. Michigan corners are keeping outside leverage and forcing the ball carrier back inside toward Clark.

Not only does Clark make the TFL, but he also strips the ball carrier in the process, allowing Courtney Avery (currently engaged with MarQueis Gray at the top of the screen) to recover the fumble, which you'll see in the video below.

Video

The Takeaway
The obvious question is whether or not this was a designed playcall or just a great play by Clark. The evidence points toward this being something Mattison drew up to entice an offense to throw the bubble screen. First, you can see how immediately Clark looks out to the flat. It may be a check for Clark on this play: if the slot receiver runs vertically, rush the quarterback; otherwise, attack the receiver catching the bubble screen. The other piece of evidence indicating this was a designed playcall is the blitz by Jake Ryan on the weakside of the field and the slant of the defensive tackles. Michigan is still able to rush four in this scenario and are effectively rotating where the rush is coming from. When Clark runs out to the flat, the D-line slants in that direction and Ryan fills the backside with a blitz. The forced fumble and recovery are just gravy.

A quarterback by any other name...

Michigan 35 - Minnesota 13

Photos by Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

One week is a lot of time to prepare for something. I'm not frustrated or angry that Devin Gardner didn't play against Nebraska when Denard Robinson went down because for most of the season, Gardner has been primarily seeing snaps at receiver and the work he does put in at quarterback was probably just to make sure his throwing form didn't revert to his shot put motion from high school. Gardner's remarkable output on Saturday also carries one major caveat: Minnesota. Don't forget that last year, Minnesota was in contention for being the worst Big Ten football team in the history of the conference or that Michigan beat them 58-0. Whatever you think of Russell Bellomy, Michigan could have won this game with him under center.

However, Gardner showed something that he's been unable to produce during his time at Michigan: consistency. The first three drives of the game, spanning the entire first quarter, were vintage Gardner: 1/3 for 7 yards, 1 INT, and a sack for six yards. In the second quarter, though, Gardner settled down and found his rhythm, even throwing one of those scrambling, wide-open touchdown passes that Ohio State has gotten against Michigan since the dawn of time.

What was most impressive was the way in which Gardner looked suited for this offense. His passing motion was still janky, but he stood in the pocket and delivered passes more confidently and impressively than Denard has in two years. His ability to step into throws and deliver a pass, even in the face of pressure, showed marked improvement over what Michigan has gotten from Denard or what Gardner has shown to date.

Gardner looked like a Jim Tressel-led Terrelle Pryor: an athletic, tall quarterback being forced to play under center and make plays only when he's asked to while allowing the defense to carry the load. In this game, Gardner was able to do so, but this was against a Minnesota team that allowed 44 points to New Hampshire and 28 to Western Michigan and Purdue. Does Gardner's obvious improvement actually resemble a sustainable winning offense? That's debatable.

Al Borges should also come in for some praise, though Saturday's game does not bode well for the future of Denard in the shotgun. Forced to play a bit more conservatively, Borges put Gardner under center for much of the game, a move that actually seemed to work. Instead of running the throwback screen and one predictable running back iso from the I-formation, Borges opened up the offense and forced the Gopher defense to start reacting to play action and counter plays from under center. This looked like a more fully formed offense albeit one that Michigan fans didn't want to see until Shane Morris has taken over the reins.

Regarding the rest of this season, Gardner's performance on Saturday probably signifies a permanent move away from wide receiver. With a lingering injury to Denard--one that can seemingly knock him out of the game at any time--Gardner sitting in the wings will be important if Michigan wants to win close games like the one in Nebraska. The coaches hedged their bets at the beginning of the year. A senior Denard will be able to properly protect himself but he needs more dangerous wide receivers. Gardner proved not to be a great receiver and Denard suffered a fluke injury. Michigan still lost the game's you would expect them to lose (Alabama, Notre Dame) and one that may have gone the other with a better backup QB, and they didn't upset anyone because of Gardner's presence, but the move of Gardner to wide receiver was one we all thought should happen and looked promising enough that the coaches really shouldn't bear too much blame.

There's no quarterback controversy this year, though there will be one to start 2013. Expect a few more formations for Gardner as the season rolls on like the ones Borges installed last year. Until Denard is off campus, though, this is still his team.

Bullets

• Saturday was a weird day. Despite Michigan winning with a guy who hadn't played quarterback all season, it felt like a day full of losses. Notre Dame won because Pitt choked the game away and Michigan State lost because Mark Dantonio wanted 19 yards of field position instead of a chance to ice the game with a 4th and 2 from the Nebraska 39 (!!!). I want Notre Dame to lose because fuck Notre Dame, but Michigan State losing has a real impact on Michigan's chances to win the Big Ten. Mark Dantonio: you're stupid.
• Fitz Toussaint: still probably broken. If he can't get anything going against Minnesota, he probably won't get anything going all year. Excise his late-game 41-yard touchdown scamper (which was impressive, but again, against Minnesota) and Fitz had 29 yards on 12 carries. 
• If Denard had been playing quarterback in this game, the story this week would be about how well the wide receivers played. Those guys pulled in absolutely everything. Gardner sailed a few passes but not so high that the receivers couldn't pull them down.
• Jake Ryan: 5 tackles, 4 assists, 3 TFLs. I be like dang.
• Ryan may be Michigan's most impressive defensive player, but Quinton Washington is the most important. He is on his way to getting drafted in the late rounds next year if he keeps playing this well. You can tell immediately when Washington is off the field, and it seems like whenever he's inserted into the lineup again, he slashes into the backfield and causes havoc.
• Ondre Pipkins is still not ready for significant snaps, though it's good that the coaching staff is getting him on the field. He constantly gets pushed past the point of attack and out of plays. He has talent, but I am a little worried about him being a starter next year.
• If Michigan ever plays a team with an elite passing QB, they are in trouble. JT Floyd has been beaten badly the last few weeks only to watch passes sail out of bounds by a few yards. There are some cracks in the armor of Michigan's secondary that I fear a bowl opponent will attack.

Next Week
Michigan gets Northwestern at home. The Wildcats are coming off of a bye week but previously beat Iowa in a game that probably should have been more lopsided than the final score shows. Michigan has played a few option teams now and has managed to more or less hold their offenses in check. Northwestern is probably more varied than Nebraska, but their offense isn't as prolific. This should be a too-close-for-comfort win, but a win nonetheless, regardless of who's playing quarterback.

Preview: Nebraska 2012

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#22 Michigan vs. Nebraska

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Neb

Kickoff 8:00 pm EST

ESPN2

Forecast: Low-50s, 0% chance of rain 

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Nebraska Last Week
Through 55 minutes and 50 seconds last week, Nebraska had amassed a total of 387 total yards of offense against Northwestern, but managed only 16 points, thanks in large part to two lost fumbles. In its last two full drives, Nebraska racked up 156 yards, almost all on the arm of Taylor Martinez (11/13 for 143 yards and 2 TDs). For the game, Martinez threw for 342 yards on 39 attempts (8.8 YPA) and three touchdowns. On the ground, Martinez added 65 yards on 18 carries.

Defensively, Nebraska mostly shut down Northwestern's rushing attack. Venric Mark was able to rack up 116 yards on 18 carries, but he was the only one and largely because of an 80-yard run on a blown play by the Nebraska middle linebacker Will Compton (the team's leading tackler). Northwestern's offense isn't what it has been the last few years, but holding them to only 301 yards is still an accomplishment.

Offense vs. Nebraska

Since Michigan's offensive output generally comes down to how well Denard will fare in the passing game, Nebraska presents a unique problem: the Cornhuskers rank eighth in the nation in sacks with 21 total (3.14 per game). The charge is led by senior weakside defensive end terror Eric Martin (pictured). Martin has 5.5 sacks and 8 TFLs already this season. He also has 7 QB hits, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery. Shutting down Martin will be critical to winning this game, so expect Devin Funchess or another tight end to line up next to Schofield all game, forcing Martin to rush against Taylor Lewan. Martin isn't the only pass rusher, though. There are four different players on the Nebraska roster with at least two sacks this year and 13 with at least a half of a sack. For a quarterback who is prone to backfoot throws when he gets pressure, this kind of pass-rush spells doom for Michigan.

Nebraska is able to generate that kind of production because they play a lot of man coverage, both in its base formation and blitz coverage (though they don't blitz much). The 80-yard touchdown run that Nebraska allowed against Northwestern was the direct result of Will Compton being pulled to the flat trying to cover running back leaking out of the backfield. If anything could be gleaned from last week's matchup, it's that Nebraska is susceptible to counters and misdirection because of their aggressive man defense.

Despite all of the man coverage, Nebraska is an impressive 18th in pass efficiency defense. Michigan's receivers are going to struggle to get off the line against the Cornhusker cornerbacks. Josh Mitchell and Stanley Jean-Baptiste both play strong man coverage, and Michigan's wide receivers have had trouble with physical corners. Safeties Daimion Stafford and PJ Smith are also decent in coverage but are more of a factor in the run game, ranking second and third in tackles. Victimizing Nebraska's safeties and linebackers with play action is something Northwestern did often last week. Al Borges probably won't want to do this.

Those safeties have to be aggressive against the run because defensive tackle Baker Steinkuhler is a wiry 6'6" 290 lbs. That's one of the reasons that Nebraska is 90th in rushing defense this year. The other reason: if you make it past the defensive line, as long as you've spread the field, there's a good chance you're not going to see another defender until the safeties come into play. Making the proper reads in the option game and getting some blockers to the second level will be crucial for Michigan to spring big plays.

The best part about playing against Nebraska this year as opposed to 2011: no Lavonte David, the team's unquestioned leader and best defensive player last year. David stopped quite a few Denard runs last year from being 80-yarders with shoestring tackles. Despite generally solid linebacker play, if Michigan can get Denard or Toussaint in space against these linebackers, that's a win for the Wolverines.

Defense vs. Nebraska

You know Taylor Martinez, but you might not know 2012 Taylor Martinez. Though he's still not an elite passer, he's been significantly better this season, completing 67% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and a 15 TD/4 INT rate. Those are some scary numbers. However, his stats are significantly worse against teams with respectable defenses (UCLA, Wisconsin, Ohio State; 49/85, 57.6%, 574 yards, 6.75 YPA, 3 TD/4 INT).

It will be interesting to see what Michigan can do against Martinez. When he has time in the pocket, Martinez can make all of the throws, but Nebraska ranks 76th in sacks allowed. The problem is, Michigan can't generate a pass rush without blitzing. Greg Mattison finding ways to confuse Martinez without giving up too much in the run game may be the most important task he has all season.

Nebraska's rushing attack is still elite, averaging 279 yards per game (good for 6th in the country). Rex Burkhead is coming back from a leg injury that kept him out of a lot of the Northwestern game. Last year, Burkhead was the hot commodity coming into Nebraska's game against Michigan, but managed only 36 yards on 10 carries. Martinez wasn't much better on the ground or through the air, but the latter of which we've already addressed.

I'm frankly not worried about Nebraska's rushing attack (famous last words, I know). I have implicit faith in Mattison's ability to scheme for and prepare his players for any offensive attack that can't simply overpower Michigan with talent (see: Alabama). Mattison knows how these spread attacks work because a) he was Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida and b) he goes against Denard Robinson in practice every week.

The key to winning this side of the ball will be the defensive line. Quinton Washington and Will Campbell are basically constants, and Craig Roh has been a good-to-great strongside defensive end. Jibreel Black and Frank Clark at the weakside defensive end will have to stay disciplined against the option and stick to whatever gameplan Mattison has designed (play the QB or the RB). If it's Black at WDE, his lack of speed may be an issue, but if Clark can step into the role, that should help nullify Nebraska speed.

If the defensive line can hold up, Kenny Demens, Desmond Morgan, and Jake Ryan against running backs in space will decide how this game goes for Nebraska offensively. Though Martinez has a lot of straight-line speed and a little bit of shake to him, none of Nebraska's running backs are threatening in the open field.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Getting pressure on Taylor Martinez will be crucial. If they can force Martinez to complete closer to 50%-55% of his passes, Mattison can start loading up against the run. Jake Ryan will be responsible for a lot of this pass rush as he has been all season long. He will have to stay disciplined keeping outside leverage and make sure to wrap up in the backfield. JT Floyd and Raymon Taylor are going to have their hands full with Nebraska's taller wide receivers, which is another reason pass rush will be critical.

Offensively, Michigan needs to get Denard to the second level. Nebraska's linebackers are aggressive downhill and just watched Michigan run head first into MSU's linebackers for 60 minutes. If Patrick Omameh and Ricky Barnum can get to the second level and block Nebraska's linebackers, Denard will be able to pick up big chunks of yards. In the passing game, Denard and Borges need to find an effective way to attack man-to-man coverage down the field.

How does Nebraska win? Keep doing what they've been doing. If Martinez is completing 67% of his passes in this game, Michigan is sunk. The Nebraska coaching staff varies their run game as well as almost anyone in the country. Keeping Michigan's defensive line on its heels with multiple option looks will further slow down the Wolverines' already inept pass rush. They will, however, need to find a way to get big plays from non-Martinez ball carriers.

Defensively, Nebraska needs to keep generating the pass rush they've gotten all season. Though Denard has cut down his terrible, backfoot throws since the Notre Dame game, the kind of pressure Nebraska generates could see a return to that inconsistency. If the linebackers can stop Denard and Toussaint from breaking long plays, a physical secondary will be able to stop Michigan's passing game.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 41.031%

Final Prediction. Offensively, expect Al Borges to utilize the counter draw that Michigan has shown a few times this year and last, as well as the throwback screen, both of which will punish Nebraska's linebackers for overpursuing. Denard and Toussaint both break 30+ yard runs as Nebraska linebackers get caught out of position. However, Denard throws two interceptions, both of which are meaningful and not end-of-half heaves.

Martinez will complete more deep, downfield throws in this game than Michigan has allowed all season, but none of them go for touchdowns; they're heaves to wide receivers who can out-leap and out-muscle Michigan's corners. However, Michigan holds Nebraska to near 150 yards rushing. It's boom-or-bust for Nebraska's offense. Michigan finally gets a good kick/punt return. Nebraska rallies late but Michigan clutches to the win. Michigan 27 - Nebraska 24

Quinton Washington can shed your block

Despite the fantastic year that Jake Ryan is having, Michigan's most improved defensive player is still Quinton Washington, with a bullet. Washington, along with Will Campbell, are major reasons that Michigan was able to shut down Le'Veon Bell against Michigan State. What follows is another piece of evidence in favor of Quinton Washington for President and one of the best examples of a Michigan defender getting off a block to make a play that we've seen all season.

Michigan has just punted after a three-and-out following Michigan State's only touchdown drive of the game. MSU comes out in a two-wide I-formation look. Michigan is in its pseudo-nickel with Jake Ryan lined up over the slot receiver and only two linebackers in the box. Michigan's defensive ends are shaded just outside the offensive tackles while Will Campbell is covering the strongside guard and Washington is in the weakside A-gap.

As the ball is snapped, Washington engages the right guard (highlighted). The MSU center is chip blocking Washington before releasing to the second level. MSU is running a weakside-iso.

MSU's center is now releasing to the second level to block Kenny Demens. Washington and Roh and singled up on the MSU right guard and tackle, respectively.

This is the moment of truth for Le'Veon Bell. He has to make one of two cuts. Desmond Morgan is in good position on the backside run fill, but he's only able to fill this hole because Will Campbell has stopped the MSU left guard from releasing to the second level. Bell is forced to cut to his right.

But Bell didn't expect Washington to annihilate the MSU right guard. The lane that was clear for Bell a moment ago is now occupied by Washington. Bell is forced the bounce the run outside again, but Craig Roh is getting good push on the MSU right tackle.

Washington is now lunging to tackle Bell. He won't make the tackle, but he's already accomplished his goal. In a moment, you'll see JT Floyd flying downhill as Bell tries to bounce outside Roh.

Bell has now totally broken contain, which allows Roh to release from the MSU right tackle and chase Bell. Floyd is now the contain defender running downhill to tackle Bell, but he's making sure to maintain outside leverage.

But why keep contain when you can just chop down Bell mid-stride?

Video

The Takeaway
I'm starting a Kickstarter. It will raise money to buy Greg Mattison pies. Let me know if you're interested.

When coaches talk about players needing better technique, getting off blocks better, and maintaining leverage, this is the play that they show in the film room. It all starts with the defensive line: Will Campbell nullified the MSU left guard allowing Desmond Morgan to fill the backside run gap; Craig Roh kept outside contain, forcing Bell to bounce to the sideline and allowing Michigan's secondary to come downhill and attack the ball carrier; and Quinton Washington stayed firm on his blocker and was able to shed the block to cut off Bell's primary running lane.

This is the kind of performance the defensive line has been turning in all season and something that was unthinkable two years ago. The discipline to stay in the proper lanes is one thing, but Campbell recognizing he needs to stop the MSU lineman from releasing to the linebackers and Washington's ability to toss aside MSU's blocker in order to make the proper run fill are examples of coaching that the team didn't get under the previous regime.