Frank Clark defending the bubble screen

The implicit difference in philosophy between Al Borges and Greg Mattison has been something I've watched all season, primarily regarding the bubble screen. Though Borges is reticent to throw it, if you watch the alignment of the defense, Mattison almost always accounts for it by aligning the defense with numbers to the outside. There was one play late against Minnesota, however, that showed a new formation that Mattison used to defend the bubble screen.

Michigan has already pulled away late in the fourth quarter, but the starting defensive lineup is still playing. Michigan is in its nickel package, and Minnesota comes out in a four-wide set. As you can see at the top of the screen, the Gophers have three receivers against Michigan's 2.5 defenders (the third is 15 yards from the line of scrimmage). Any offensive coordinator who sees this (and most Michigan fans) would immediately check to a bubble screen. Eight free yards, right?

But when the ball is snapped, rather than rush upfield, Frank Clark immediately looks out to the slot receiver to check if he bows out for the bubble screen.

Before the quarterback can release the ball, Clark is already running toward the slot receiver.

The ball is still int he air and Clark is only 5 yards from the receiver with a full head of steam.

When the receiver finally catches the ball, Clark is in his face. Michigan corners are keeping outside leverage and forcing the ball carrier back inside toward Clark.

Not only does Clark make the TFL, but he also strips the ball carrier in the process, allowing Courtney Avery (currently engaged with MarQueis Gray at the top of the screen) to recover the fumble, which you'll see in the video below.

Video

The Takeaway
The obvious question is whether or not this was a designed playcall or just a great play by Clark. The evidence points toward this being something Mattison drew up to entice an offense to throw the bubble screen. First, you can see how immediately Clark looks out to the flat. It may be a check for Clark on this play: if the slot receiver runs vertically, rush the quarterback; otherwise, attack the receiver catching the bubble screen. The other piece of evidence indicating this was a designed playcall is the blitz by Jake Ryan on the weakside of the field and the slant of the defensive tackles. Michigan is still able to rush four in this scenario and are effectively rotating where the rush is coming from. When Clark runs out to the flat, the D-line slants in that direction and Ryan fills the backside with a blitz. The forced fumble and recovery are just gravy.

Michigan's offensive line is really bad

Remember this:

Well this happened against Minnesota:

Minnesota is terrible. So is Michigan's offensive line.

Preview: Terrible Minnesota 2012 Hurricane Sandy Edition

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Michigan vs. Minnesota

TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-40s, 20% chance of rain 

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It's been a long week. I finally got back to Michigan on Wednesday night and have been trying to catch up with school work since then. Hurricanes suck.

Michigan is going to beat Minnesota and no level of analysis I can do will make you think otherwise. There will be hemming and hawing about Michigan not beating Minnesota by enough, but tomorrow will be a Wolverine win. That will be all.

Michigan shows triple option (kinda)

In Brian's Minnesota game column, he speculated about the potential for the "Fritz" (sure) formation--the diamond formation with Denard and Devin Gardner on the field at the same time--that Michigan used. In particular, he wondered whether or not that would be a precursor to the introduction of the triple option. In reality, Michigan already tipped their hand with the triple option against Minnesota.

It's 2nd and 2 in the third quarter. Michigan is in their two-back set with two receivers to Denard's left and Koger lined up on the right side of the offensive line. Minnesota is in its 4-3 front with basically 9 defenders in the box.

On the snap, you can see that the weakside defensive end is unblocked like he would be in a traditional zone read. Stephen Hopkins is approaching the mesh point with Denard. Rather than acting as a lead blocker, Fitz Toussaint takes a step to his left behind Denard.

As Hopkins and Denard engage in the mesh point, you can see Toussaint swinging around to the weakside of the formation behind Denard. He will be the pitch man if Denard pulls the ball.

Denard (incorrectly, I believe) hands the ball off to Hopkins for the dive play despite the defensive end crashing down on the handoff. As you can see, Toussaint is continuing to swing behind Denard. If he pulls the ball here, Denard and Toussaint are off to the races.

This is how the play ends. Minnesota has nine defenders in the box while Denard and Toussaint turn the corner with a blocker ahead of them.

I'm relatively certain that this was a bad read by Denard, and the results bear that out. However, there's little (to no) reason to show this play were it not already installed in the offense. We should expect to see this play (hopefully with the proper read) on Saturday against Northwestern and beyond.

This is yet another example of Borges adding wrinkles to the offense to catch defenses off guard. One of my biggest complaints about Rodriguez's offense last year (there weren't many) was that there didn't seem to be enough new packages/plays installed on a weekly basis. Through five weeks, Borges has shown an increasingly diverse attack while streamlining the playcalling by removing the plays that don't work (the I formation). As the season goes on, Michigan will have an increasingly diverse set of plays that could potentially make this offense just as lethal as last year's.

Counter draw mailbag

Last week, I received this e-mail about Michigan's deployment of the long-awaited speed option

I imagine you've already got this one in the hopper, but I'd like to see a picture page on the speed option that went for the long TD. It is a counter to the zone read, right? What I mean is, when we line up with Denard in the gun and Vince Smith to his left, the zone read would have Smith go right with Denard having the option to keep it and go left. With the speed option from that same formation, the play goes right, which I think has to give us a numbers advantage since the D has to account for the potential of Denard keeping it on the read option and going left.

My response was fairly simple: It's not a counter, necessarily, but it is another play that is based from the same initial setup. To wit:

I'm not sure that the speed option is really a "counter" (in a football sense) for anything. On a lot of those QB lead draws, Denard follows his RB (see, for example, the QB Oh Noes where Denard follows his back who acts as a lead blocker). This is, however, a variation of the QB lead draw, which will keep defenses guessing and force them to play fundamentally sound defense. The real key now will be how Borges tweaks these play calls. Making subtle adjustments to these QB lead draws/speed option/etc. are what keeps a defense guessing and, hopefully, guessing incorrectly. So if he can establish one or two more plays that begin with Denard following his RB to the playside, Borges can put in place plays like those QB Oh Noes that catch defenses cheating.

(This is not a complex concept. A while ago at Dr. Saturday, Chris Brown showed how Brian Kelly begins all of his passing routes with vertical stems so as not to tip his hand to an opposing defense. This is the same basic formula applied to the passing spread.)

As we saw multiple times against Minnesota, Borges added another wrinkle to this structure with a counter draw. Ohio State used the same play against Michigan last year to devastating effect and it was one of those plays that had everyone asking why Rodriguez hadn't installed it in the Michigan offense yet. Enter Borges.

It's the first quarter on Michigan's second drive. The Wolverines are in a three-wide look with Mike Shaw to Denard's left. Minnesota is in a 4-3 over front.

As the ball is snapped, Denard and Shaw both take a step to their left, much like they would with the QB lead runs. However, Taylor Lewan is starting to pull around to the backside of the play.

Denard takes another step to his left but Shaw stops and will begin to head in the opposite direction. As you can see, all of the Gophers' linebackers have keyed on the QB lead play. The defenders are all flowing to the strongside of the field.

As Denard hands the ball off, you can see how out of position Minnesota's defenders are. They've all sold out on the QB carry and have flowed out of position. Lewan is continuing to pull to the weakside of the play where he will be a lead blocker. He is about to engage and double the weakside DE, which I think is the wrong play. If he turns the corner and heads upfield, he likely blocks the only defender capable of tackling Shaw.

As Shaw turns the corner, the weakside WR Jeremy Gallon flattens the Minnesota safety who has come up to defend the run. Lewan is flattening the weakside DE. You can see the legs of the final Gopher defender in the top left of the image. If Lewan heads upfield to block him instead, this is a touchdown.

Minnesota 2011: Where the playbook gets wonky

Minnesota 0 - #19 Michigan 58

One of the reasons Dave Brandon cites for hiring Brady Hoke was his defensive mindedness. He even referenced it when comparing Hoke to Bo Schembechler (!) during the Minnesota game. After the initial hire, I investigated the veracity of that rational:

Though Hoke has a reputation for being a defensive-minded guy--one of Dave Brandon's biggest selling points for him--Hoke's defenses have consistently hovered anywhere between middle-of-the-road and completely terrible. The early returns from his head coaching jaunts are understandably poor: he was taking over two historically bad programs and had lots of building to do. What's most disturbing is Ball State's continued incompetence even four and five years into Hoke's tenure...

The general takeaway here is that Hoke's defenses are not something to build your team on. Despite their ability to create turnovers (+17 in 2007!), his defenses do nothing exceptionally and, on average, are near the worst in the country. Any attempt to chalk this up to strong competition is easily dismissed when you look at their strength of schedule (which also hovered around the weakest in the country).

Arguments can be made that this is Greg Mattison's defense--which historically have been a significant upgrade from those that he inherited--rather than Hoke's, but regardless of who this can be attributed to, it's clear now that for the foreseeable future, the defense will be what this program intends to hang its hat on.

Caveats apply for this game: Minnesota truly is the worst team in the FBS. They were starting a freshman quarterback who was in over his head. And the skill position players lack the ever-important "skill" that is so preferable for that personnel. This was, however, the first shutout since the Carr years--even crash test dummies Delaware State were able to put points up against Rodriguez's defense. For all of the (mostly regrettable) This Is Michigan posturing, this game felt like a Michigan football game against a significantly inferior opponent: smothering defense that played near flawless football and executed exactly how they were supposed to.

There were no blown coverages that we look at on film and say "They'll get that ironed out during the season." There were no glaring weaknesses that could be exploited, either. Michigan put in their backup quarterback in the third quarter and found playing times for the likes of Richard Ash who, but all accounts, has no business being on the field this season. With Borges making the proper offensive adjustments and largely scrapping his traditional playbook to accommodate the skill set of Denard and Co., and the gawdawfulness of the Big Ten, forget anything I said preseason. Michigan's new ceiling should be recalibrated to account for the obvious upgrade on the coaching staff and their Little League schedule in the Big Ten. Michigan has a real chance to have a banner year this season.

Bullets

• Al Borges ftw. The changes that he's made to his offense are nothing short of revelatory. It's clear that he understands offense, not just his offense. The way he tweaks his schemes (in this game, the use of the QB stretch counter, which I'll picture page this week) is the most clear indication that this coaching staff is not only intelligent but will be successful over the years. Borges has found the offense's strengths and opposing defenses' weaknesses and exploited them.
• Greg Mattison makes me hate Rich Rodriguez. If only Rodriguez hadn't completely screwed up his defensive staff, this team could've been something really special this year. Though Borges is doing well with this offense, it's still a downgrade from Rodriguez's spread and shred. But Mattison has turned what appeared to be a bunch of underachievers into a really solid defense. Alas...
• Denard looked much improved. His accuracy was certainly better in this game, which may have been a result of the operation he recently had on his throwing elbow. But it is also likely due to a tweaked offensive structure. We didn't see Denard taking shots downfield in this game, and most of his passes were short hitch routes and simple reads. We'll see if this is sustainable against a defense that isn't a smoldering crater.
• Vincent Smith now has stats in the "Quarterbacks" column of the stats page. Borges had fun in this game.
• Blake Countess might not be mirage. He appears to be a young cornerback that can, like, totally cover people. This is a good thing going forward.
• Roy Roundtree is officially a non-factor in this offense. This doesn't really surprise me (he's not an outside receiver and he doesn't have the shake from the slot that some of the other guys do), but it is disappointing after his year last season.

Next week
Though Michigan nominally opened the Big Ten season against Minnesota, well, no. Next week's game against Northwestern will be the team's first real conference test. With ongoing injuries to Dan Persa, that game suddenly looks a lot more winnable.

Preview: Minnesota 2011

Minnesota (1-3) vs. #19 Michigan (4-0) The Big House, Ann Arbor, Michigan Kickoff 12 pm EST Big Ten Network Forecast: 50s, 30% chance of rain

Last week
North Dakota State 37 - Minnesota 24. Minnesota is hardly even worth talking about. This is, almost without question, the worst D-I program in the country. After playing the murderers' row of USC, New Mexico State, Miami (OH), and North Dakota State, Minnesota is 1-3 and ranks 102nd in pass efficiency defense, 33rd (?) in rushing defense, 102nd in pass efficiency, 44th in rushing per game, and 75th in scoring. They have played basically no one and have been a total black hole doing so.

Against NDSU, Minnesota was outgained by 44 yards, putting up a measly 292 yards of offense. Their two quarterbacks combined to throw 9/20 for 124 yards (6.2 YPA) and two interceptions. The defense allowed NDSU to rush for 5.0 YPC on 28 attempts and generously offered 9.4 YPA through the air. This was an all-out shellacking at the hands of an FCS team that ranks in most categories somewhere around 30th best FCS program.

San Diego State 7 - Michigan 28. Game recap. Last week, Michigan thoroughly dominated Brady Hoke's old stomping ground San Diego State. It didn't hurt that linebacker-sized quarterback Ryan Lindley was awful. Lindley was 23/48 and averaged 5.3 YPA. Star running back Ronnie Hillman ran well (5.2 YPA on 21 carries) but fumbled twice. The rest of the SDSU offense spent the game dropping passes or getting bulldozed by Mike Martin. It was a convincing defensive effort.

On the other side of the ball, Denard had another rough day, completing only 8 of his 17 passes for 93yards and 2 interceptions. He did, however, run all over the tiny SDSU defense (200 yards on 21 carries). Fitz Toussaint and Vincent Smith battled back and forth with highlight carries and the receivers all turned in their usual performance.

Offense vs. Minnesota
Regardless of Denard's passing struggles, Michigan is going to steamroll Minnesota's defense. The Gophers' passing defense has been as porous as any in the country even against the FCS patsies that they've played thus far. The only thing that makes you double take Minnesota's passing defense is the 19-17 loss to USC, but a look at the box score reveals that a) Matt Barkley was 34/45 for 3 TDs and zero INTs and b) Lane Kiffin is still an idiot for going for two-point conversions after every touchdown. (As a side note, how bad is USC that Minnesota could even nominally compete with them?)

The Minny rushing defense appears to be at least functional. They currently rank 33rd in rushing yards per game allowed. However, with a secondary as porous as Minnesota's, any time a team runs against them, it's a win for the Gophers. Expect that number to drop significantly when Denard comes to town and turns the secondary into stone pillars as he dashes by them to the endzone. If Michigan punts more than twice in this game, it will be a failure. There should be virtually no resistance.

Defense vs. Minnesota
Offensively, Minnesota uses option packages with quarterback Marqueis Gray, who is reportedly questionable for the game on Saturday. Through the air, Gray has completed 39 of 77 attempts for 6.8 YPA, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs, otherwise known as Threetidan+. On the ground, he has been marginally better, carrying the ball 71 times through the first four games for 351 yards (4.9 YPC). If Gray can't go, freshman Max Shortell* gets the lucky task of going against Walk-On Ray Lewis and Mattison's wonky blitzing schemes. Shortell has seen spot action this season, completing 13 of the only 28 passes he's thrown with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. He is a 6'6" lankmonster that isn't going to do any damage with his legs. Watching him throw against Michigan's zone blitzes should be Bauserman-esque.

Despite being an option offense, the Gophers are not very intimidating on the ground. That could be because their offensive line two-deep is made up primarily of freshmen. Gray is the team's leading rusher with 351 yards and zero TDs. He's followed by fifth-year senior Duane Bennett who is averaging a hilarious 3.7 YPC on 44 carries.

If Gray is able to play on Saturday, the key will be for the linebackers/DEs to keep the edge and force the run back inside. If Shortell plays, the key will be not dropping hilariously thrown interceptions. Either way, this is another chance for Michigan's defense to pad their stats.

*Shortell's high school highlight films appear to be video of him throwing into double coverage and having his passes batted down. -10 points for lack of music. -25 for not using Rick Ross' "Hustlin".

Prediction
Have you seen this Minnesota team play?

Denard throws a pick. Denard runs for over 150 yards. Devin Gardner sees his first "meaningful" snaps. The defense wins the turnover battle by at least 3.


Michigan 45 - Minnesota 16