Preview: Notre Dame 2013

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#14 Notre Dame vs. #17 Michigan

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor

Kickoff 8:00 pm EST

ESPN

Forecast: Low-70s, 30% chance of rain 

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Last Week
Temple 6 - #14 Notre Dame 28. Notre Dame welcomed the Temple Wet Owls to South Bend last week and won in marginally convincing fashion. Temple left 7 points on the field, missing two field goals and having an extra point blocked. Meanwhile, the Irish put up 14 points in the first five minutes of the game, and were only able to punch it in twice for the rest of the game. Worse still, those first two touchdown drives relied on huge plays (45, 32, 51, 32), of which the team only managed one more (a 66-yard pass for the team's third touchdown). Notre Dame's inability to put together sustained drives could have been anticipated after the loss of starting QB Everett Golson, but against a team like Temple, the offense should still be able to move the ball.

The vaunted Irish defensive line failed to impress as they were expected to; the Owls managed 4.5 YPC on 29 rushes. ND did keep junior QB Connor Reilly to a 50% completion rate and only 5.0 YPA. Then again, this marked Reilly's first game action, so a rough outing was expected.

Offense vs. Notre Dame

John T. Greilick | Detroit News

No matchup will be more important than how Michigan's offensive line manages Notre Dame's defensive front. The names to know are Louis Nix III (aka Irish Chocolate, apparently) and Stephon Tuitt. Nix anchors the defense, acting as a black hole in the middle of the defensive line. At 350+ pounds, Nix presents problems for the inexperienced interior of the offensive line. MGoBlog postures that Michigan introduced the zone stretch into the offense in order to attack Notre Dame's defensive ends rather than trying to push Nix off the line.

Flanking Nix at defensive end will be Tuitt, a havoc-sower for all teams that don't feature Taylor Lewan. Tuitt finished 2012 with a team-leading 12 sacks, and still stands at over 300 pounds, making him difficult to attack in the run game (unlike, say, Frank Clark). Michigan remains uniquely prepared to handle Tuitt with two senior offensive tackles, including the best left tackle in the country. The third lineman in Bob Diaco's 3-4 defense is sophomore Sheldon Day, a nondescript defensive end who should be a non-factor in this game.

Notre Dame's only other defender of note is senior outside linebacker Prince Shembo, who finished the 2012 season with 7.5 sacks, 21 solo tackles, and 27 assists. Shembo is pitch perfect for Diaco's aggressive, blitzing defense, and will challenge Michigan's running backs to block him on blitzes (of which, Fitz Toussaint did poorly in week one).

Concerns about moving the ball against Notre Dame have been tempered following a subpar performance against Temple. But as we've become all too aware, Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio can look awful all season and still drag Michigan through the mud. Non-Gardner runs will be touch and go throughout the game. Nix and Tuitt are going to beat Michigan's offensive line a few times. Dispersing those negative plays across multiple drives and recovering quickly from them will be important if Michigan will produce multiple, sustained drives.

Because Notre Dame's defense relies heavily on blitzes, Gardner's scrambling could pay dividends. His ability to get out of the pocket may slow the Irish front seven, allowing Michigan to run from their base offense more easily.

In the secondary, Notre Dame is unexceptional. If nothing else, the Irish defensive backs have experience, boasting two seniors, a junior, and a sophomore. Most of the turnovers that the secondary produces are a function of Notre Dame's front seven getting pressure. Once again, blitz pickups from Michigan's backs will allow Garnder the space and time to find receivers downfield. As we've already seen this year, getting traffic in Gardner's face can end in turnovers.

The man behind the curtain, as always, is Al Borges. Michigan's offense against Central Michigan was vanilla. During fall camp, we saw plenty of footage of Michigan running the inverted veer and other spread concepts which were largely absent in the opener. I fully expect Michigan's offense to have a little more pizzaz against Notre Dame. What that entails, I'm not sure, but a few more zone reads are likely, as are play action off of those.

Defense vs. Notre Dame

Good news everyone! Tommy Rees is back. In spite of his perpetual derpitude, Rees set his career record for passing yardage against Temple and has been serviceable+ against Michigan in his career. But on the quarterback fear index, Rees ranks just above a half-slurped Go-Gurt. With Everett Golson getting booted from the team, this season was always going to be a reclamation project on offense. But it might be worse than originally thought, in spite of a solid performance against Temple. Rees' long passes last week came on a wide-open post route with no safety help, a bubble screen, a wide-open corner route with no safety help, and a wide-open seam route to a rumbling tight end. He has not developed into junior Chad Henne. This is just Tommy Rees.

Golson wasn't the only loss from last year's offense. Cierre Wood graduated and junior Theo Riddick entered the draft early, stripping Notre Dame of their top two rushers from a season ago. In week one, Notre Dame's running backs were not great. Nominal starter, junior George Atkinson, squeaked out only 34 yards on 8 carries--one of which was a 14-yarder. Junior Amir Carlisle had the highest YPC (68 yards on 8 carries; 9.7 YPC) but that number is bolstered by his 45-yarder that was handed to him after Temple's linebackers blitzed with no regard for running lanes.

On the outsides, Notre Dame's wide receivers do not intimidate. Gone are the Michael Floyds and Golden Tates of recent years. TJ Jones returns for his senior year after averaging 13 yards per catch last year. Against Temple, Jones had six receptions for 138 yards. He is your prototypical slot receiver and will be the recipient of many screen passes. He has good speed and will need to be tackled in the open field often; how Courtney Avery and Thomas Gordon handle Jones could go a long way to determining how this game goes. But other than Jones, the Irish receivers do not intimidate.

Michigan's ability to get pressure on passing downs with only four men against Central showed promise for this matchup. Notre Dame is going to spread the field on almost all downs, so to avoid big plays, Michigan will need safety valves for when man coverage invariable goes wrong. If Michigan's front four can generate a pass rush, that will help alleviate a lot of the stress on Michigan's safeties.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Notre Dame's defense didn't overwhelm Temple, which bodes well for Michigan's chances. Michigan's offensive line looks improved from week one and the team averages 5.5 YPC. Notre Dame's blitzes are occasionally effective, but more often than not, Gardner is able to scramble out of danger and either pass or throw for significant yardage. Defensively, Michigan's front four completely dominates the Notre Dame offensive line and the Irish can never get their running game started. One or two big passing plays from Tommy Rees are all that keep Notre Dame alive, but Michigan dominates the game throughout.

How does Notre Dame win? Nix and Tuitt look more like they did last year than in week one. Michigan's young offensive line struggles to block Notre Dame's pressure and the team averages only 3.8 YPC. The Irish blitzes also disrupt Garder who makes bad decisions and bad throws, tossing multiple interceptions. When Notre Dame has the ball, Michigan's young secondary struggles to contain Brian Kelly's spread attack and Tommy Rees avoids mistakes while throwing three touchdowns. Michigan's front four can't generate a pass rush and has to dedicate linebackers and safeties to the pass rush, opening things up on the back end.

Arbitrary chances that Michigan wins? 78.492%

Final Prediction. Week one matchups are only a single data point, but they can be illuminating. For example, we know that Michigan State's offense is going to be unwatchable this season. Michigan and Notre Dame's respective games leave very little doubt about which team is better right now. Notre Dame's offense struggled against a lowly Temple squad in ways that didn't look to be week one jitters. With an offense that appears to be boom or bust, the Irish are going to struggle to score against a Michigan team that has been stout against the big play for two years now. Rees will complete a 3rd and 18-ish that will infuriate Michigan fans, but Notre Dame's big plays work only toward self preservation. Tuitt winds up being a non-factor in the game, but Nix cuts a number of Michigan drives short by setting up third and long situations. Michigan's run game as a whole doesn't look devastating, but Gardner shakes off the game one interceptions and accounts for 350 yards. Notre Dame 17 - Michigan 27

Denouement 2012

#18 Michigan 28 - #10 South Carolina 33

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

There are no storylines here or poorly relayed personal anecdotes that can be shoehorned into a story about yesterday's Outback Bowl. After two years of getting to and even winning bowl games on the strength of miraculous wins that were unsustainable, it's only fitting that Michigan finally arrive on the other end of the spectrum. Even more appropriately, the secondary, which had been heralded as one of the nation's best, was finally shown to be the straw house that we all suspected it was; the unit that was largely responsible for yesterday's loss. Michigan was outgained badly, lost the turnover battle, revealed a still-inept secondary, and had an offense that averaged only 4.3 yards per play. They deserved to lose and they did.

For most, this game marked the final appearance of Jordan Kovacs and Denard Robinson in a Michigan uniform, regardless of the outcome. For me, this is the end of my most frustrating season as a Michigan fan since my senior year (2007). When Rich Rodriguez was the head coach, it was easy to dismiss the losses and near misses: those teams simply weren't very good. There was solace that could be taken in inevitability. This season was supposed to be the swansong of the program's most electric star with a revamped defense and deadly offense. Instead, it was a team that was closer to being 6-7 than 10-3. And in the end, it was the team's defensive anchor who was badly beaten in coverage on the losing touchdown of the bowl game.

I'm happy this season is over and Michigan ushers out another class of Rich Rodriguez players. The Borges/Denard transition has been an outright failure, but anyone could see yesterday that Borges has a plan for this offense and there exists a path forward. The defense was more distressing--a safety blitz that Mattison dialed up early resulted in an unsound secondary leading to yet another huge South Carolina play, for example. The secondary showed either its lack of talent or lack of experience, getting beaten over and over again for big plays. Raymon Taylor showed his youth, and it may be time for even me to admit that Courtney Avery can't guard anyone in man coverage.

Next year, this team only gets better at just about every position save left tackle. The losses of Kovacs, Denard, and Kenny Demens will be covered by players already on the depth charts, while replacements to the likes of Elliott Mealer and JT Floyd will be automatic upgrades. The hardest spot to fill will be Craig Roh--and Taylor Lewan, about which more later--but Jibreel Black has acquitted himself nicely this season and stands primed to slide into the strongside defensive end position next year. Devin Gardner's early flashes of brilliance gave way to the inconsistency that plagued his career to date, but even he will be pushed by Shane Morris early and often during the season.

There exists a path forward and Hoke, Mattison, and Borges are leading this team down the right path. The further this program moves from the three treacherous years of Rodriguez recruiting, the better off it becomes.

Bullets

• Though the story that most publications will have you believe is one of Jadeveon Clowney flatlining Vincent Smith, the dynamic defensive end was pretty quiet all game because Taylor Lewan was out to get himself some first-round money. Lewan will be the biggest loss of the offseason with only faint hopes of finding an adequate replacement from the collection of freshmen and Michael Schofield.
• Speaking of NFL monies, Denard can be an NFL running back and probably did a lot of good for his draft stock in this game. What was most impressive about his running from the halfback position was how decisive his cuts were. Obviously, we knew that already, but seeing it from a different position really illuminated how effective he can be at the next level.
• Brendan Gibbons will be a big asset next season.
• The Michigan defensive line absolutely dominated the South Carolina offensive line, as evidenced by their complete abandonment of the running game. Remove the one or two blown assignments by defensive ends on the inverted veer, and this defensive front was dominant.
• Except when trying to sack the QB.
• Al Borges finally proved he doesn't know how to use Denard with those two-point conversions. The loss of Denard will have one very positive effect on this offense: Borges will no longer fumble around with personnel that he has no idea how to properly utilize. That said, Denard's one pass acted to reconcile some of Borges' shortfallings and the questions about his playcalling: Denard still cannot throw with his injury.
• If you watched the game on TV, you already know this, but those jerseys were an abject failure. I'm not one to complain about this sort of thing, but the numbers and names were illegible and neon. Hopefully this teaches the athletic department some sort of lesson, but probably not.

Next Week (?)
BASKETBALL!

Frank Clark defending the bubble screen

The implicit difference in philosophy between Al Borges and Greg Mattison has been something I've watched all season, primarily regarding the bubble screen. Though Borges is reticent to throw it, if you watch the alignment of the defense, Mattison almost always accounts for it by aligning the defense with numbers to the outside. There was one play late against Minnesota, however, that showed a new formation that Mattison used to defend the bubble screen.

Michigan has already pulled away late in the fourth quarter, but the starting defensive lineup is still playing. Michigan is in its nickel package, and Minnesota comes out in a four-wide set. As you can see at the top of the screen, the Gophers have three receivers against Michigan's 2.5 defenders (the third is 15 yards from the line of scrimmage). Any offensive coordinator who sees this (and most Michigan fans) would immediately check to a bubble screen. Eight free yards, right?

But when the ball is snapped, rather than rush upfield, Frank Clark immediately looks out to the slot receiver to check if he bows out for the bubble screen.

Before the quarterback can release the ball, Clark is already running toward the slot receiver.

The ball is still int he air and Clark is only 5 yards from the receiver with a full head of steam.

When the receiver finally catches the ball, Clark is in his face. Michigan corners are keeping outside leverage and forcing the ball carrier back inside toward Clark.

Not only does Clark make the TFL, but he also strips the ball carrier in the process, allowing Courtney Avery (currently engaged with MarQueis Gray at the top of the screen) to recover the fumble, which you'll see in the video below.

Video

The Takeaway
The obvious question is whether or not this was a designed playcall or just a great play by Clark. The evidence points toward this being something Mattison drew up to entice an offense to throw the bubble screen. First, you can see how immediately Clark looks out to the flat. It may be a check for Clark on this play: if the slot receiver runs vertically, rush the quarterback; otherwise, attack the receiver catching the bubble screen. The other piece of evidence indicating this was a designed playcall is the blitz by Jake Ryan on the weakside of the field and the slant of the defensive tackles. Michigan is still able to rush four in this scenario and are effectively rotating where the rush is coming from. When Clark runs out to the flat, the D-line slants in that direction and Ryan fills the backside with a blitz. The forced fumble and recovery are just gravy.

Linebacker/nickelback blitz vs. Air Force

Staples of this blog last year were posts that lauded Greg Mattison's awesome NFL-style zone blitzes. Michigan didn't really use them all that often against Alabama and rarely had an opportunity to against Air Force because of the offense they run. But fortunately, on second viewing of the game, one blitz late in the first half stood out as another piece of Mattison mastery.

(If you're new to the site this year, above is a diagram of the blitz. Michigan's players are all denoted by their numbers. The lines with arrows at the end indicate a blitz. The lines with squares at the end indicate a zone drop. The light-yellow squares indicated the approximate defensive zones.)

With six minutes left in the first half, Michigan gets Air Force in a 3rd and 8 passing down. The team lines up in its Super Nickel package: Craig Roh (#88) and Jibreel Black (#55) at defensive tackle, Frank Clark (#57) and Cam Gordon (!!!; #4) at defensive end, two linebackers, three corners, and two safeties. Almost any time Gordon lines up with his hand in the ground as a defensive end, I get angry, but this is the first time Mattison has actually done something innovative with it.

As the ball is snapped, all four defensive linemen begin to rush. In a moment, Gordon (bottom of the screen) will drop out into coverage. Courtney Avery (playing nickelback) and Joe Bolden (strongside linebacker) are also blitzing. What this will do is overload the strongside of the offensive line with pass rushers.

Below, you can see Gordon dropping into coverage. Roh and Black both slanted toward the weakside of the field, forcing their offensive line couterparts to follow them that way. This leave the Air Force left guard to block both Bolden and Avery (highlighted).

The left guard decides to block Avery (highlighted), giving Joe Bolden a free lane to the Air Force quarterback.

Black and Roh also beat their blocks, so there are now three Michigan blitzers in the face of the Falcon QB.

Before getting the sack, QB Connor Dietz throws the ball off his back foot (hey, I've seen that before) out of bounds.

Video

The Takeaway

This is what you pay defensive coordinators for. Much like some of Michigan's blitzes last year, the defense overloads one side of the offensive line in order to get a free rusher on the quarterback. Often, Mattison is able to do that with only four rushers. Here, he uses five because, well, he wants to.

You may have noticed that Jordan Kovacs is all alone in the deep middle of the field with only zone coverage underneath. This play is designed so that the need for Kovacs to make a play is the worst-case scenario. The blitz is intended to force opposing quarterbacks to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible, hence the five underneath zones.

The good thing about this particular blitz is the personnel and zone assignments. A few times last year, Mattison's zone blitzes failed because linebackers or defensive linemen were asked to make unrealistic zone drops into coverage and failed to get into position on time. Here, the only "defensive lineman" dropping into coverage is a wide receiver free safety strongside linebacker. The rest of the zone coverage comes from linebackers, corners, and safeties who are already positioned near their coverage zones. Most importantly, the blitz did exactly what it was supposed to do, forcing an incompletion and getting the defense off the field.

Preview: Air Force 2012

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Air Force vs. #19 Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

ABC/ESPN2

Forecast: Mid-60s, 30% chance of rain

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Last Week
Idaho St. 21 - Air Force 49. Air Force faced off against the mighty Bengals of Idaho State last week and trounced them in typical Air Force fashion: 484 yards rushing on 58 attempts (8.3 YPC!!!). Running back Cody Getz accounted for the brunt of the load (17 carries, 218 yards, 3 TDs) while senior quarterback Connor Dietz did exactly what you expect an option QB to do (8/11 for 142 yards, 7 carries for 74 yards and 1 TD). In total, 11 different players carried the ball at least once for Air Force.

#8 Michigan 14 - #2 Alabama 41. Game recap. You know what happened here. Michigan came up against the closest thing to a juggernaut that college football will see this season. Denard struggled, the running game was non-existant, and the defense was shredded. It's been a while since Michigan was that summarily beaten, but that's what happens when you face the defending national champs and oversigning devotees.

Offense vs. Air Force
Read also: Fee Fi Foe Film

Gregory Shamus | Getty Images North America

With Air Force playing against an FCS team--especially one that was so bad last year (2-9)--last week's game doesn't give us much of an indication of how good the Falcons are. What we do know: they run a traditional 3-4 defense that was pretty soft last year. In 2011, the Falcons ranked 109th in rushing defense, 81st in pass efficiency defense, and 72nd in scoring defense.

Other than those basics, I'm not really sure what to expect from this Air Force team. I haven't had time to watch much film of them so instead of me pulling out a bunch of random stats, I'll direct you to Ace's Fee Fi Foe Film:

Air Force is woefully undersized on defense, which dictates much of what they do. Starting nose tackle Cody Miller weighs just 260 pounds and is flanked by defensive ends weighing 240 and 265 pounds each; frequently-used backup nose Nick DeJulion tips the scales at just 240, which Michigan would consider undersized for their weakside DE spot.

This results in teams running roughshod over the Falcons. Despite doing a good job of preventing big plays, they gave up 4.96 yards per carry in 2011, and Notre Dame gashed them for 266 yards on 9.6(!) ypa in their matchup last season. This is the ultimate bend-but-don't-break defense

How will Michigan fare against that kind of a defense? Probably really well. The return of Fitz Toussaint and Not Playing Alabama should help Michigan find its groove on offense. Denard and Toussaint should find lanes, and Michigan's offensive line should look much improved (including Michael Schofield, who struggled against Alabama, but will have a much easier time against the undersized Air Force).

If Michigan builds up any kind of sustainable lead (not a guarantee; see: Defense vs. Air Force), this game should be used as an open practice for Denard to get into rhythm with his receivers. Though Alabama was an experience Michigan won't face again, it was clear that Denard and his receivers have a lot of kinks to work out. We need to be careful though: it may be dangerous for the team going forward if Devin Gardner dominates a team like Air Force with shoddy mechanics. If he can't iron out his route-running and blocking issues, his utilization as the #1 receiver this year may be problematic.

Defense vs. Air Force

Via ugh

Before last week, this game seemed like a tune-up on gap responsibilities, assignment football, and tackling. In the wake of the Great Linebacker Implosion of 2012, Air Force's brand of option football looks like a daunting matchup for this defense.

You probably haven't seen Air Force play, but you may have seen Paul Johnson's Georgia Tech teams. GT and Air Force both run the wishbone offense, which has an A, B, and C back in addition to a run-first quarterback. The basic setup looks like a 5-man offensive line with two H-backs (via MGoBlog):

This is a triple option offense. The quarterback's first read is usually a dive play to the fullback. (I still have no idea who the quarterback reads here, but he's reading someone.) If the fullback dive has been taken away, the quarterback will pull the ball out and run a traditional pitch option with one of the H-backs (who pulls around the formation).

On paper, the base play in the wishbone is not all that difficult to defend, but offensive coordinators who run this system have hundreds of subtle variations on that play intended to block whatever player has been making tackles. I'll let Smart Football explain:

The Navy blog "The Birddog" has a great post breaking down elements of Paul Johnson's flexbone offense. The videos he culls exhibit something I've tried to explain about defending Johnson's offense: you can't just play "assignment football." That term gets thrown around by announcers a lot, with the implication being that all you have to do is "assign" one guy to the dive back, one to the quarterback, and one to the pitch back. The problem is that Johnson will figure out your assignments and change his blocking schemes accordingly.

If Michigan's linebackers weren't indecisive against the run, this would still be a fearsome offense to try to stop. Unfortunately. Defensively, this game will come down to the linebackers properly playing the pitch option, keeping the ball to the inside of the field, and reading and reacting to what the Air Force offense is doing.

As for the passing game, this seems like the kind of game that you want following an injury to your second-best cornerback (Blake Countess; Air Force rarely throws the ball more than a dozen times a game), but it's possible to see a less experienced corner getting caught cheating against the run. Though the Falcons' passing game won't intimidate Michigan's defense outright, Courtney Avery and JT Floyd will need to stay disciplined and not overreact to the option running game.

Prediction
How does Michigan win: Michigan's offense shouldn't have any problem moving the ball against an undersized Air Force defense. However, I expect the Air Force offense to put up at least 300 rushing yards against Michigan's suspect second-level defense. If Michigan is going to win this game confidently, they're going to need improved play from the linebacker corps. The defensive line will be able to take away the fullback dive all game, so playing disciplined defense on the edges is really all Michigan needs to do.

How does Air Force win: Basically, turnovers and a terrible performance from the linebackers. Denard will have to throw two or three interceptions, and Toussaint will have to put the ball on the ground for Air Force to stop the Michigan offense. On the other side of the ball, Air Force will need to break a few long runs against the defense.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 82.36%

Final Prediction: Michigan gives up a number of long runs early, and the game is relatively close going into the second half, where Denard and Co pull away. The defense eventually forces a turnover or two. Michigan doesn't cover (21 points) but still wins confidently. Air Force 17 - Michigan 35

What to expect: Secondary 2012

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Offensive Line and Tight Ends, Defensive Line, Linebackers

Projected Corner Starters: Blake Countess, JT Floyd

Two years ago, starting JT Floyd in your secondary was a bad idea:

That was 2010 when Michigan had Penn State in 2nd and 21. For almost any functional defense, that's a "Keep it in front of you" situation. For Greg Robinson-led Michigan, it was a wide-open out route as Floyd retreated to the endzone because things like technique were not really taught during the Rodriguez years.

The PSU receiver takes one stop toward the inside of the field and then breaks to the outside. Floyd immediately turns his back on the play to run with the receiver to the inside, despite having help defense toward the middle of the field. By the time Floyd gets his head turned around, the receiver has settled into a completely vacated zone 22 yards down the field and makes the first down catch.
Absolutely everyone involved in this play is to blame, but almost all of it has to fall on Greg Robinson. These players have absolutely no idea what they're doing here. The underneath defenders get no depth. Floyd doesn't know where his help defense is and once again shows how poor his technique is (like on those wide-open slants against Iowa) by turning away from the play. I mean, this is 2nd and 21 against a walk-on quarterback in the second drive of his first career start. How does this happen?

Oh how things have changed. Over the course of last year, Floyd not-so-quietly became a really solid Big Ten cornerback. He struggled covering Michael Floyd against Notre Dame because, duh, but otherwise, he was aggressive, timed throws well, and stayed sound in the running game. He doesn't have elite speed but will be able to hang with most receivers he faces this year as long as he has help over the top.

Last year, Floyd racked up 31 tackles, 17 assists, 8 PBUs, a forced fumble, and two interceptions. For someone a year removed from arguably the worst coverage play I've ever witnessed, those are pretty impressive numbers. That's probably his ceiling though. As a senior, he's not going to get demonstrably better. Teams aren't afraid of his coverage abilities, so they'll probably throw at him about as much as they did last year, and his numbers will hover around where they did last year.

Across from Floyd will be Blake Countess who saw progressively more time throughout the year. As a true freshman, he racked up 30 tackles, 14 assists, 1.5 TFLs, 6 PBUs, and a forced fumble. Countess is about as natural of a cover corner as you can get. At 5'10" he'll never be elite, but he is basically Donovan Warren (though Warren was two inches taller, they play effectively the same game). Countess frequently got beaten on double moves last year in man coverage, but that's the kind of thing that's designed to beat man coverage. He'll probably get lost a few times this year on similar moves, but expect his technique to be better against those sluggos. Otherwise, by the middle of the year, he may supplant Floyd and take on the more difficult wide receiver matchups.

The Backup Corners: Courtney Avery, Delonte Hollowell, Raymon Taylor, Terry Richardson

Long ago, when Courtney Avery was just an inexperienced former quarterback recruit, he seemed to me like the kind of guy who found his assignment and stuck to him like glue. At a relatively diminutive 5'11", 173 lbs, Avery has become the premiere slot cornerback on the roster. His rookie season, I spent the year praising his ability to cover receivers in man-to-man coverage. Last year, he came off the bench in the nickel corner position as a relatively sturdy addition to the defense until the above picture when he picked off Braxton Miller to end the Ohio State game.

This season, Avery will continue his role as shifty slot corner and filling in for either Floyd or Countess should either of them get hurt. Come next year, Avery will be in a battle with Terry Richardson for the starting CB slot across from Countess, but that's for another preview.

Behind Avery on the depth chart are sophomores Raymon Taylor and Delonte Hollowell, both of whom saw little action last year. Taylor only registered in the box score twice last year, and Hollowell didn't do much more, despite having an awesome profile photo on MGoBlue's site (right). Hollowell will likely be the first off the bench, but we won't see any of these backups unless there's an injury.

Finally, there's highly touted freshman Terry Richardson hovering somewhere around the depth chart. He's probably more suited to back up Avery in the slot given his diminutive size (5'9" according to MGoBlue), but his recruiting profile suggests he lines up to guard outside receivers.

For the first time in, well, a long time, Michigan finally has a talent and depth at the corner position. Without any true standouts at the spot, we'll probably see Hollowell, Taylor, and Richardson all rotating in and out of each position sporadically throughout the year with Avery as the primary backup and nickelback.

Projected Safety Starters: Jordan Kovacs, Thomas Gordon

You know Jordan Kovacs. Everyone knows Jordan Kovacs. Chances are you love Jordan Kovacs. In the long, long ago, I wrote a now hilariously wrong post on here called The Jordan Kovacs Problem in which I asserted,

The mere presence of Kovacs on the field presents a gaping hole in the defense and an obvious weak spot for opposing offenses to attack.

So, nevermind that. Over the last year, Kovacs has proven that 1) he's a really good strong safety and 2) Greg Robinson is an idiot. (Though that last point was proven by a number of players throughout the last year.) Expect nothing more or less from Kovacs this year: the defense's most consistent performer and one of the best strong safeties in the Big Ten, despite not having elite athleticism.

Playing across from Kovacs will likely be redshirt junior Thomas Gordon who was totally nondescript last year (in a good way). Free safety, like offensive line, is the kind of thankless job in which you usually only get mentioned if you're doing something wrong. Last year, Gordon was almost completely anonymous to your average viewer, but filled up the stat sheet: 41 tackles, 26 assists, 1.5 TFLs, 2 PBUs, and 2 force fumbles. Together, Kovacs and Thomas proved to be a pair of sure tacklers downfield and in space, and mostly negated the long touchdowns that plagued the defense for the previous few years. Expect the same from them this year.

The Safety Backups: Marvin Robinson, Jarrod Wilson, Josh Furman, Jeremy Clark, Allen Gant, Floyd Simmons

If you're thinking to yourself, "Wow, that's a lot of backups for only two safety spots", you're right. Under the Rodriguez/Robinson regime, hybrid linebacker/safety types were all the rage, so the team stocked up on them. Unfortunately, most of them have gone on to have completely ineffectual careers. Super recruit Marvin Robinson should be a linebacker but isn't. Josh Furman should be great but isn't (though his camp-legendary speed will supposedly be used on kick returns this year). And the rest are young recruits stuck behind two of the team's most consistent performers.

Kovacs and Gordon, barring injury--please God, barring injury--should rarely come off the field during the season. Kovacs is an every-down safety and Gordon proved himself to be reliable in almost all situations. Getting playing time for the backups will likely only come in mop-up duty against the early-season scrubs or if there's an injury to one of the starters.

Conclusion
For the first time in years, the secondary should be one of the strongest units on the entire team. Kovacs, Floyd, Gordon, and Countess are probably one of the strongest corner/safety lineups in the conference this year and we should expect a performance as such. A slight uptick in interceptions as Floyd and Countess both improve their technique can probably be anticipated, and the dirge of long touchdowns against the D should continue. This season, Michigan's defensive weakness is in the front end, not the back.

VT bubble/tunnel screen

All 2012 Sugar Bowl coverage can be found on the Bowl Game page.

Against Miami (FL), Virginia Tech didn't do all that much offensively of note. They ran the counter draw that Michigan showed early in the year, and they used the inverted veer to devastating effect against a Miami defense that just couldn't figure it out. Otherwise, it was a lot of downhill running, clean pockets, and checkdown passes. They did run a really interesting bubble/tunnel screen late in the game.

(First, apologies for the quality of the screenshots. This was not a high-res rip of the game.) This is right as the ball is snapped; the camera work on this game was mediocre. The Hokies are in a three-wide set with a tight end lined up as an H-back and a running back to Logan Thomas' left. Miami is in a 4-3 nickel formation.

As the ball is snapped, Thomas looks off to his left as the VT running back heads for the flat. The slot receiver to Thomas' right starts to bow out for a bubble screen. The H-back heads immediately upfield to block the nickelback lined up over the slot receiver. Miami, for what it's worth, is in a basic cover-2 defense with five zone defenders underneath.

A moment later, after the nickelback has taken a few steps toward the sideline to cover the bubble screen, the slot receiver reverses his direction and begins running toward the middle of the field for a tunnel screen, the likes of which Michigan has run with Jeremy Gallon all year.

The VT offensive line has now successfully slipped the rushing defensive linemen and are headed to the second level to block Miami's linebackers. The slot receiver is catching the ball and turning upfield.

The slot receiver cuts inside...

...and is brought down for a six-yard gain.

Obviously, the goal of this play is to get the second-level defenders running toward the sideline so that they can clear out the middle of the field for the tunnel screen. The Hokie linemen are supposed to seal the linebackers to the outside, putting the receiver one-on-one with the safety. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, Miami has the perfect playcall to defend this play. This is a man-coverage beater, though, something that worries me against Michigan's defense. If you're not disciplined or read the play quickly enough, whoever is covering the slot--either Avery or Jake Ryan, who frequently played that role against Illinois--could easily overrun the play.

Third and long? Get Mattisoned

Readers of the blog will know that I've been enamored with Greg Mattison all year. Aside from the obvious, tangible gains in performance, Mattison brought with him NFL blitzing schemes that I had been clamoring for during Greg Robinson's disastrous experiment with an "aggressive, blitzing" 3-3-5 defense. Early in the season, Mattison showed more than a few zone blitzes that had me really excited for the rest of the season, but as games rolled by, Michigan lacked the kind of defensive flare that got me excited. Finally, with Iowa in a 3rd and 16, Mattison unveiled a seemingly hellacious blitz that earned Michigan a sack and more importantly, got them off the field in a critical situation.

The play:

The first thing you'll notice is that despite Michigan having players swarming the line of scrimmage, only four defenders actually rushed, while the rest dropped off into coverage. There are a few players not pictured, but things of note: Martin is in a two-point stance outside of Iowa's tight end, Courtney Avery and Frank Clark are lined up over Iowa's slot receiver, and Desmond Morgan is lined up as the "nose tackle". It is difficult to get a read as to two is and is not rushing.

As the ball is snapped, most of the defenders on the line of scrimmage drop into coverage. Morgan drops from the NT spot, and Martin and Kovacs each begin dropping into their respective coverage zones. Meanwhile, Clark, Demens, Roh, and Van Bergen are the four rushers.

As the play continues, it's clear that Michigan's coverage scheme is a basic cover-2 with five zone defenders underneath. But because Iowa needs 16 yards for a first down, Michigan is able to mix up who they send into coverage without the fear of a blown play.

Iowa's receivers are all running shallow crossing routes, which, if this is defended even remotely how it should be, will net a gain of no more than 5 to 8 yards. Here, you can see that Michigan's underneath defenders are all within arms length of an Iowa receiver, forcing Vandenberg to progress through his reads.

Since all of the Iowa receivers are covered, Vandenberg steps into the pocket where Roh is headed.

Boom, Mattisoned.

A few things of note:

This is a difficult playcall to make unless the opponent has 10+ yards to go for a first down. Sending players like Mike Martin into coverage is risky business if your opponent only needs a few yards to convert, but surprising QBs with a zone drop from linemen is a way to force an errant throw or make them check down to a different receiver. Here, with no one open, Vandenberg has to eat a sack.

The pre-snap alignment also goes a long way toward this result. Obviously having Morgan lined up in the nose tackle spot is a wonky alignment, but in my opinion, the most critical alignment prior to the snap is that of Troy Woolfolk. When a quarterback reads a defensive alignment before the snap, one of the key things they look for is the alignment of the safeties. If there's one deep safety, chances are the team is playing cover-1 or cover-3. If there are two deep safeties, they're likely playing cover-2 or quarters. However, on this play, Woolfolk is the only deep safety, but he will roll to one side of the field as JT Floyd drops into coverage as the second deep safety.

Avery nickelback blitz

Just as I was bemoaning the total lack of interesting schematic plays against Purdue, Greg Mattison gifted us with a blitz that, if I can recall correctly, the team hasn't shown yet this season: a nickelback blitz and zone drop. The design:

It's late in the game and Michigan has a number of backups in. Robert Marve is in at quarterback for Purdue with four wide receivers and a running back in the backfield. Michigan is in their nickel package with Courtney Avery in as the nickelback.

Traditionally in a zone blitz, pressure will come from the linebackers or defensive backs while a defensive lineman drops into zone coverage with the rest of the defenders. It's tough to see here, but I'm relatively certain that Michigan is playing a combination of zone and man principles with the corners and safeties in man coverage against each of Purdue's receivers.

On the snap, Craig Roh begins to drop into coverage. The other three linemen, Kenny Demens, and Courtney Avery all blitz.

The initial rush doesn't create any pressure but Avery and Demens will cause problems in a moment. Brandin Hawthorne is turning to play zone coverage over the middle of the field.

Demens finally gets to the line of scrimmage and Avery is still screaming downfield. Roh is locked onto Marve in the backfield cutting off any passes to the short side of the field.

Not seeing anyone to throw to, Marve steps up into the pocket, but it's quickly collapsing around him.

Avery finally arrives to the play. He and Roh will chase down Marve in the backfield for a sack.

I really like this playcall. It's designed to force a quarterback to one side of the field where there are linemen dropping into coverage. Avery blitzes from the wide side of the field as Roh steps into coverage on the short side. Not only does this force a quaterback to throw into a defense's strength, but forcing the quarterback to the short side of the field gives Roh less field to cover. Hawthorne is also playing zone in the middle of the field and is able to cut off any throws against the grain of the play.

I'm relatively certain this playcall only works against vertical passing routes, but that's exactly what Michigan was facing as Purdue tried to force the ball down the field in garbage time. Short routes or crossing routes would be problematic with this playcall. This blitz is not something we'll see again soon, but any time a team tries to run all/four vertical routes, this is the kind of play Mattison can dial up to attack it.

The dangers of zone blitzing

One of the few complaints I can levy against the defensive staff after the weeks leading up to the Michigan State game was a lack of the innovative blitzes that Mattison showed early in the season. Michigan State, being a strictly pro-style offense, appeared to be the perfect team for Mattison to unveil a few of his NFL-style blitzes. In my opinion, the team didn't blitz nearly enough in the game. For the most part, any D-I offensive line can pass protect against four straight-ahead rushers, which is what the Spartan line was tasked with for most of the game. Occasionally, Mattison would bring a blitz, however, and on this example, he utilized a zone blitz but oddly used man coverage behind the blitz rather than zone coverage, necessitating that Michigan's defensive ends cover players they had no ability to cover.

It's third and eight with about four minutes left in the third quarter. Cousins had just thrown the backwards pass that wasn't a backwards pass. Michigan is in its nickel package with Coutney Avery as the nickelback and Desmond Morgan and Kenny Demens as linebackers.

Before the snap, Michigan's linebackers show blitz, as does Jordan Kovacs who has come down from his safety position. These three will blitz the A gap, not unlike Michigan State did against Michigan all game.

As the ball is snapped, Michigan's defensive ends (Craig Roh and Jake Ryan) both drop off into coverage as Demens, Morgan, and Kovacs blitz the A gap. On the strongside of the field, you can see Avery and Blake Countess in man coverage against MSU's receivers. Roh is also assigned to man coverage against MSU's H-back. Ryan, lined up against BJ Cunningham on the weakside of the field is supposed to be in man coverage. You'll see in a minute that he is confused about his assignment on the play.

The blitzers are now getting into the backfield and will have a free run at Cousins (there aren't enough blockers to protect him). Roh is engaged with the MSU H-back. FWIW, I think he'd probably be called for defensive holding if the play had ended differently. On the weakside of the field, Cunningham is running behind Ryan. Cousins already recognizes that Ryan has missed his assignment as is getting ready to throw to Cunningham once he clears Ryan.

Morgan and Kovacs have blown by the MSU running back and are charging after Cousins. You can see Ryan pointing at Cunningham. Ryan thinks that this is zone coverage, and he's trying to alert Roh to the crossing route. Unfortunately, Michigan is in man coverage.

At the last minute, Ryan realizes that he's blown his coverage, but Cunningham is already wide open. The blitz was a step too late.

Blown coverage aside, this emphasizes the danger of running zone blitzes: if the blitz doesn't land, you have defensive ends in zone coverage against zippy slot receivers. This almost always ends poorly. This play, however, is especially perplexing. I can't understand how Mattison can call for man coverage from the defensive ends on a blitz, especially asking them to cover wide receivers. If they are assigned to tight ends, fine, they might be able to handle that. But asking Ryan to cover one of MSU's best receivers in man coverage is suicide. I think the design of the play calls for Ryan to jam Cunningham at the line of scrimmage so that the A gap blitz has time to land, but that's a risky call.

Other random observations
You can see the difference between this A gap blitz and the ones that MSU used against Michigan. As MGoBlog pointed out, MSU was timing Michigan's snap count and able to get into the backfield almost immediately. The Spartan defenders were able to build a full head of steam pre-snap. Michigan's blitzers, however, were slowly creeping to the line of scrimmage when the ball was snapped.

Another thing to note is the pre-snap alignment of Ryan, who is lined up close to a yard behind the other defensive linemen:

Though I'm not positive, I think Ryan or Roh has done this before. It's something to watch going forward. If the defensive ends continue lining up too far from the line of scrimmage on the zone drops, it will tip off the blitz and coverage to opposing QBs. It didn't here, and I'm not sure if it's noticeable enough in real time, but it looks to me like it is. Ryan's helmet is a full yard off the line of scrimmage. If opposing linemen start picking up on this pre-snap, they can tip off the quarterbacks to a likely zone blitz. It will also help them in pass protection.