Preview: Notre Dame 2013

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#14 Notre Dame vs. #17 Michigan

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor

Kickoff 8:00 pm EST

ESPN

Forecast: Low-70s, 30% chance of rain 

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Last Week
Temple 6 - #14 Notre Dame 28. Notre Dame welcomed the Temple Wet Owls to South Bend last week and won in marginally convincing fashion. Temple left 7 points on the field, missing two field goals and having an extra point blocked. Meanwhile, the Irish put up 14 points in the first five minutes of the game, and were only able to punch it in twice for the rest of the game. Worse still, those first two touchdown drives relied on huge plays (45, 32, 51, 32), of which the team only managed one more (a 66-yard pass for the team's third touchdown). Notre Dame's inability to put together sustained drives could have been anticipated after the loss of starting QB Everett Golson, but against a team like Temple, the offense should still be able to move the ball.

The vaunted Irish defensive line failed to impress as they were expected to; the Owls managed 4.5 YPC on 29 rushes. ND did keep junior QB Connor Reilly to a 50% completion rate and only 5.0 YPA. Then again, this marked Reilly's first game action, so a rough outing was expected.

Offense vs. Notre Dame

John T. Greilick | Detroit News

No matchup will be more important than how Michigan's offensive line manages Notre Dame's defensive front. The names to know are Louis Nix III (aka Irish Chocolate, apparently) and Stephon Tuitt. Nix anchors the defense, acting as a black hole in the middle of the defensive line. At 350+ pounds, Nix presents problems for the inexperienced interior of the offensive line. MGoBlog postures that Michigan introduced the zone stretch into the offense in order to attack Notre Dame's defensive ends rather than trying to push Nix off the line.

Flanking Nix at defensive end will be Tuitt, a havoc-sower for all teams that don't feature Taylor Lewan. Tuitt finished 2012 with a team-leading 12 sacks, and still stands at over 300 pounds, making him difficult to attack in the run game (unlike, say, Frank Clark). Michigan remains uniquely prepared to handle Tuitt with two senior offensive tackles, including the best left tackle in the country. The third lineman in Bob Diaco's 3-4 defense is sophomore Sheldon Day, a nondescript defensive end who should be a non-factor in this game.

Notre Dame's only other defender of note is senior outside linebacker Prince Shembo, who finished the 2012 season with 7.5 sacks, 21 solo tackles, and 27 assists. Shembo is pitch perfect for Diaco's aggressive, blitzing defense, and will challenge Michigan's running backs to block him on blitzes (of which, Fitz Toussaint did poorly in week one).

Concerns about moving the ball against Notre Dame have been tempered following a subpar performance against Temple. But as we've become all too aware, Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio can look awful all season and still drag Michigan through the mud. Non-Gardner runs will be touch and go throughout the game. Nix and Tuitt are going to beat Michigan's offensive line a few times. Dispersing those negative plays across multiple drives and recovering quickly from them will be important if Michigan will produce multiple, sustained drives.

Because Notre Dame's defense relies heavily on blitzes, Gardner's scrambling could pay dividends. His ability to get out of the pocket may slow the Irish front seven, allowing Michigan to run from their base offense more easily.

In the secondary, Notre Dame is unexceptional. If nothing else, the Irish defensive backs have experience, boasting two seniors, a junior, and a sophomore. Most of the turnovers that the secondary produces are a function of Notre Dame's front seven getting pressure. Once again, blitz pickups from Michigan's backs will allow Garnder the space and time to find receivers downfield. As we've already seen this year, getting traffic in Gardner's face can end in turnovers.

The man behind the curtain, as always, is Al Borges. Michigan's offense against Central Michigan was vanilla. During fall camp, we saw plenty of footage of Michigan running the inverted veer and other spread concepts which were largely absent in the opener. I fully expect Michigan's offense to have a little more pizzaz against Notre Dame. What that entails, I'm not sure, but a few more zone reads are likely, as are play action off of those.

Defense vs. Notre Dame

Good news everyone! Tommy Rees is back. In spite of his perpetual derpitude, Rees set his career record for passing yardage against Temple and has been serviceable+ against Michigan in his career. But on the quarterback fear index, Rees ranks just above a half-slurped Go-Gurt. With Everett Golson getting booted from the team, this season was always going to be a reclamation project on offense. But it might be worse than originally thought, in spite of a solid performance against Temple. Rees' long passes last week came on a wide-open post route with no safety help, a bubble screen, a wide-open corner route with no safety help, and a wide-open seam route to a rumbling tight end. He has not developed into junior Chad Henne. This is just Tommy Rees.

Golson wasn't the only loss from last year's offense. Cierre Wood graduated and junior Theo Riddick entered the draft early, stripping Notre Dame of their top two rushers from a season ago. In week one, Notre Dame's running backs were not great. Nominal starter, junior George Atkinson, squeaked out only 34 yards on 8 carries--one of which was a 14-yarder. Junior Amir Carlisle had the highest YPC (68 yards on 8 carries; 9.7 YPC) but that number is bolstered by his 45-yarder that was handed to him after Temple's linebackers blitzed with no regard for running lanes.

On the outsides, Notre Dame's wide receivers do not intimidate. Gone are the Michael Floyds and Golden Tates of recent years. TJ Jones returns for his senior year after averaging 13 yards per catch last year. Against Temple, Jones had six receptions for 138 yards. He is your prototypical slot receiver and will be the recipient of many screen passes. He has good speed and will need to be tackled in the open field often; how Courtney Avery and Thomas Gordon handle Jones could go a long way to determining how this game goes. But other than Jones, the Irish receivers do not intimidate.

Michigan's ability to get pressure on passing downs with only four men against Central showed promise for this matchup. Notre Dame is going to spread the field on almost all downs, so to avoid big plays, Michigan will need safety valves for when man coverage invariable goes wrong. If Michigan's front four can generate a pass rush, that will help alleviate a lot of the stress on Michigan's safeties.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Notre Dame's defense didn't overwhelm Temple, which bodes well for Michigan's chances. Michigan's offensive line looks improved from week one and the team averages 5.5 YPC. Notre Dame's blitzes are occasionally effective, but more often than not, Gardner is able to scramble out of danger and either pass or throw for significant yardage. Defensively, Michigan's front four completely dominates the Notre Dame offensive line and the Irish can never get their running game started. One or two big passing plays from Tommy Rees are all that keep Notre Dame alive, but Michigan dominates the game throughout.

How does Notre Dame win? Nix and Tuitt look more like they did last year than in week one. Michigan's young offensive line struggles to block Notre Dame's pressure and the team averages only 3.8 YPC. The Irish blitzes also disrupt Garder who makes bad decisions and bad throws, tossing multiple interceptions. When Notre Dame has the ball, Michigan's young secondary struggles to contain Brian Kelly's spread attack and Tommy Rees avoids mistakes while throwing three touchdowns. Michigan's front four can't generate a pass rush and has to dedicate linebackers and safeties to the pass rush, opening things up on the back end.

Arbitrary chances that Michigan wins? 78.492%

Final Prediction. Week one matchups are only a single data point, but they can be illuminating. For example, we know that Michigan State's offense is going to be unwatchable this season. Michigan and Notre Dame's respective games leave very little doubt about which team is better right now. Notre Dame's offense struggled against a lowly Temple squad in ways that didn't look to be week one jitters. With an offense that appears to be boom or bust, the Irish are going to struggle to score against a Michigan team that has been stout against the big play for two years now. Rees will complete a 3rd and 18-ish that will infuriate Michigan fans, but Notre Dame's big plays work only toward self preservation. Tuitt winds up being a non-factor in the game, but Nix cuts a number of Michigan drives short by setting up third and long situations. Michigan's run game as a whole doesn't look devastating, but Gardner shakes off the game one interceptions and accounts for 350 yards. Notre Dame 17 - Michigan 27

Preview: Ohio 2012

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#19 Michigan vs. Ohio

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ABC

Forecast: High-30s, 0% chance of rain 

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Last week
Ohio State 21 - Wisconsin 14 (OT). Ohio State continued its meaningless undefeated season last week by beating Wisconsin in overtime. Wisconsin's third starting quarterback this season, Curt Phillips, acquitted himself well by completing 14 of 25 passes for 154 yards and 1 TD. Meanwhile, Monte Ball did his Monte Ball thing by averaging  4.9 YPC on 39 (!!!) carries. Sacks removed, Wisconsin actually managed 4.69 YPC as a team. Those sacks may be what won Ohio State the game. Defensive end terror John Simon was nigh unblockable, marking the team's four sacks. The rest of the team managed only five tackles for loss.

Braxton Miller had a typical day: 10/18 through the air for 97 yards, and 20 carries for 70 yards. Carlos Hyde also had a good game averaging 5.8 YPC on 15 carries. Despite these performances, Ohio State was only able to manage 14 points in regulation. In overtime, the Buckeyes got away with a couple of glaring holding calls that allowed them to march into the endzone on four plays. And Wisconsin couldn't move the ball at all, resulting in an undramatic extra period.

Offense vs. Ohio State

Despite the Buckeyes' undefeated season, this is not a vintage OSU defense. A quick rundown of their statistical rankings proves as much: 17th in rushing defense, 28th in pass efficiency defense, 38th in total defense, 34th in scoring defense, 34th in sacks, and tied for 77th in tackles for loss. Those are good numbers, but they're not typical Ohio State numbers.

The defense is led by defensive end John Simon who is a scary dude. On the season, he has 22 solo tackles, 22 assists, 14.5 TFLs, and 9 sacks, in addition to 4 PBUs and a forced fumble. The scary thing for Michigan's offense is that Simon will probably be lined up across from Michael Schofield who I spent the better part of the first few games this season bemoaning his lack of speed and strength. This could be bad. Next to Simon is manchild Jonathan Hankins, an NFL-sized nose tackle that has lived up to every bit of his hype this season. Hankins has 23 solo tackles, 29 assists, 4 TFLs, and a sack, but his biggest impact is the ability to get into the backfield and disrupt plays.

So running the ball on Saturday is going to be difficult. Given the weakness of Michigan's offensive line and the strength of the Buckeye D-line, moving the ball on the ground will take some sort of randomness. Fortunately, Michigan showed a whole bunch of new running formations against Iowa with Denard Robinson in the backfield intended to get to the outside of the field where Michigan can make hay against OSU.

the Buckeye linebacker corps is led by sophomore Ryan Shazier who leads the team with 68 solo tackles. He's also marked 14.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 1 interception, and 12 PBUs. He is the heart and soul of OSU's defense, but he's also mistake prone. If Michigan can get him moving in the wrong direction on counter plays, he's liable to overrun plays. The LOLZ from OSU's defense come at the middle linebacker spot where converted fullback Zach Boren has taken over the starting position. Boren began the season as a fullback by moved to the other side of the ball when the existing linebackers proved to be miserable. Think Rich Rodriguez moving Mark Moundros to linebacker. How did that turn out? At the final linebacker spot is senior Etienne Sabino, who feels like he's been around forever. Sabino is and always has been good-not-great, and his numbers this season back this up: 24 solo tackles, 19 assists, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 INT.

So despite a hilarious middle linebacker situation, OSU's front seven is relatively stout. The weakness of the defense is, shockingly, in pass defense. When's the last time OSU didn't have a fleet of lightning fast corners that locked down receivers? Sophomore Bradley Roby and senior Travis Howard are the two Buckeye corners. Howard is the better shutdown man but Roby has more physical gifts. And neither of the starting safeties Christian Bryant and CJ Barnett are particularly threatening. Of concern for Ohio State is that three members of the secondary are in the team's top-five tacklers. They allow a lot of completions: against Big Ten competition, the OSU secondary has allowed QBs to throw for 144/256 through the air (56%) with 10 TDs and 6 INTs. Calibrate for the awfulness of Big Ten quarterbacks, and you have a secondary that's giving up a lot of completions and not particularly threatening with regards to turnovers.

With Michigan's newfound ability to throw the ball, this matchup actually slides slightly toward Michigan. OK, so Michigan's wide receivers are bad, but Michigan may not need to break a ton of long plays if OSU is allowing a bunch of mid-range throws that Devin Gardner has proven to be really accurate on. Running is going to be a harrowing affair, so getting John Simon blocked on drop backs (paging AJ Williams or Devin Funchess' non-existant blocking abilities) and giving Gardner time to survey the field and possibly scramble for first downs will be crucial for Michigan's offensive success.

Defense vs. Braxton Miller

So a few years ago, Michigan fans had to listen to that ridiculous stat that Denard Robinson accounted for 197% of Michigan's offense and every time someone said that, I got especially stabby. That receivers are not "responsible" for any of the yards on catches and YAC is dumb, but I digress. Now its Ohio State who has a quarterback responsible for their entire offense, but because Miller is an OSU quarterback and never gets injured, and because the Big Ten is atrocious and OSU hasn't played a decent defense to date, you don't hear the same conditionals about Miller's play: he is unequivocally awesome if you ask the media. And OK, fine, he's really good but he also has obvious limitations.

Miller is completing just 56% of his passes on the season with 14 TDs and 6 INTs. His yardage total is also fairly impressive but largely because safeties are bugging out against the run and getting caught out of position. He also has Devin Smith to throw to, which doesn't hurt. You might remember Smith from making one of the best catches of the season in week one. Or from any one of his long touchdown catches this season (he's averaging 19.8 yards per reception this year).

The rest of the OSU receiver corps is acceptable without a ton of gamebreakers. Corey Brown leads the team in receptions but is basically just a possession guy. And the name that you already hate and probably will more after Saturday's game is Jake Stoneburner, a senior wide receiver whose catches are all one yard further than the necessary yardage for a first down.

So that's passing which will be an annoyance but won't be a major threat to Michigan's defense like it was in last year's The Game. Beating the Buckeyes stops and ends with stopping their running game, which is no small feat. The offensive line starts four juniors and a senior and don't have any particularly weak spots. Combine that with rumbleback Carlos Hyde and Miller's top-end speed, and you've got a scary offense. Miller leads the team in carries and yards (207 and 1,416 respectively) and is averaging 5.9 YPC. He has breakaway speed, but he's less effective between the tackles and among defenders where he doesn't have the shake that someone like Denard does. Keeping outside leverage on Miller is essential, and hopefully Mattison has the defense better prepared to maintain the QB than they did against Northwestern. Hyde, meanwhile, is averaging 5.2 YPC this season and makes a lot of yardage after contact.

The one thing that has gone unmentioned is Greg Mattison who was Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida. Mattison has struggled with option teams in his two years at Michigan mostly because his gameplan is deficient heading into the game. He has something theoretical that he draws up which doesn't actually work. Against Meyer, you would expect Mattison's schemes to be more effective because of his familiarity with Meyer's schemes. If the linebackers and defensive ends properly execute whatever containment scheme Mattison has for the running game, I expect Michigan's playcalling on this side of the ball to produce good results against OSU.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Shut down Braxton Miller and don't turn the ball over. Despite Miller's gaudy numbers this season, the Buckeyes have had a tendency to have sub-par offensive outputs. Given the state of the Big Ten, that's especially damning. If Michigan can allow Miller to gain over 4 yards per carry instead of 5 or 6, OSU will eventually sputter out offensively. On the other side of the ball, Gardner needs to build upon the performances he's shown the last three weeks. Michigan has new wrinkles in the offense now that will allow Denard and a fleet of blockers to get to the outside, away from OSU's defensive strength. Hold onto the ball and Michigan can probably move the ball more consistently.

How does Ohio State win? Braxton Miller and sacks. Miller has to throw the ball a lot better than he has all season because Michigan's front seven is stout while the secondary will struggle against faster receivers like Devin Smith. If Michigan's gameplan isn't designed to shut down Miller, this will be an ugly, frustrating day. They also need a big performance from John Simon who, if he is going up against Schofield, will almost certainly be able to produce.

Arbitrary chance Michigan wins: 50%

Final Prediction. In my heart of hearts, I want to predict a Michigan victory. Gardner is playing really well, the defense has the speed to shut down OSU's rushing attack, and I firmly believe that Mattison will be a game changer. But... I just can't. This is Michigan and Ohio State in Columbus. Michigan has a QB who has been notoriously bad until the last three weeks. The Wolverine offensive line is bad. The defensive secondary is not good. And I can see nothing but Braxton Miller scampering for 19 yards over and over and over again. So if I'm being honest, 28-17 Ohio State. But like, fuck it, Michigan 23 - Ohio State 21.

Preview: Terrible Iowa 2012

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Iowa vs. #21 Michigan

The Big House, Ann Arbor, MI

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ESPN

Forecast: Mid-40s, 20% chance of rain 

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This game, like Minnesota, does not warrant a full preview. Despite playing in the worst conference in America, Iowa is 98th in rushing offense, 113th in passing efficiency, 102nd in scoring offense, 60th in rushing defense, 59th in pass efficiency defense, and 29th in scoring defense. Basically, this is an average defense in a terrible conference and an atrocious offense. The only way Michigan loses this game is if both Devin Gardner and Denard go down, and even then, Michigan will probably still be able to eek out a win.

I do have slight reservations about the game. It seems like every week, teams break tendencies against Michigan. Though Iowa OC Greg Davis may be allergic to passes longer than 10 yards, I would not be surprised if Iowa tried to attack Michigan's suspect secondary. It won't make a difference to the final score, but James Vandenberg has the arm to attack Michigan's corners. Michigan's front seven should demolish Iowa's janky offensive line and backup-backup-backup running backs, so they will eventually have to start airing it out.

Since this won't be much of a contest, things to watch in this game include: Can Ondre Pipkins build upon a decent outing against Northwestern? Linebacker rotation, specifically, how much time Desmond Morgan gets. How open do Iowa's receivers get downfield, regardless of whether or not the passes are completed. Jake Ryan, because he's going to have a monster game. Denard Robinson, if he's playing, because it's his last game in the Big House. Whether or not Dennis Norfleet can actually return a kick for good yardage or if he keeps just running directly into a wall of oncoming defenders.

Final score: Iowa 3 - Michigan 38

Preview: Northwestern 2012

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#24 Northwestern vs. Michigan

The Big House, Ann Arbor, MI

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

ESPN

Forecast: High-50s, 30% chance of rain 

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Last game
Last week, Northwestern was on a bye, but the week before that, they played a not-very-close game against Iowa. The Wildcats averaged 7.1 YPC against Iowa and would have beaten them worse had Northwestern not turned the ball over twice. The big change came with the reinstatement of Kain Colter as the starting quarterback for Northwestern. Coulter had been the proverbial change of pace QB for the Wildcats all season, coming in when the team wanted a stronger rushing attack. Nominal starter Trevor Siemian was an inadequate pocket passer: 58.9% completion percentage, 5.71 YPA, 4 TDs, and 1 INT for the season. A change was clearly in order.

Against Iowa, Colter went 6/9 through the air for 80 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, but he also presented a consistent option rushing attack throughout the game. Colter averaged 6.4 YPC on 26 carries, while starting running back Venric Mark averaged 10.1 YPC on 16 (!!!) carries. Iowa might be bad, but this Northwestern offese is probably scary.

Offense vs. Northwestern

Wondering who is going to start at quarterback is a waste of time because Michigan's offense is effectively the same regardless of who is under center. But to clarify: if Denard is healthy, he will be the starter. A more important question is how can Michigan fix the interior of its offensive line, which spent last week getting beaten off the line and put on skates against Minnesota. This is a problem.

The good news for Michigan is that Northwestern's defensive line is not particularly dynamic. The two defensive tackles are relatively svelte: Brian Arnfelt is 6'5", 300 lbs, and Sean McEvilly is 6'5", 290 lbs. In addition, both defensive ends are 6'4" and no heavier than 265 lbs. Arnfelt and McEvilly combine for 7.5 TFLs and 4 sacks, but only 40 combined total tackles. Defensive end Tyler Scott has managed 7 sacks and 8.5 TFL this season, but he will have the unenviable task of beating Taylor Lewan off the edge.

Where Northwestern makes it hay defensively is in the linebacker corps, where all three starting linebackers are in the top-four leading tacklers on the team. Those linebackers account for 16.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, and 228 (!!!!!!!) total tackles. Thems a lot of tackles. Oh yeah, and they also have two interceptions, 11 PBUs, and four recovered fumbles. Northwestern may have the best linebacker group in the conference. To show just how important this linebacking group is to Northwestern, aside from strong safety Ibraheim Campbell who has 67 total tackles, the next highest on the team is free safety Jared Carpenter with 37 tackles.

Despite those front-line inefficiencies, Northwestern's defense still stacks up statistically. (As a side note, as is the same with Michigan's lofty rankings, the conference-wide top-50 defense rankings are basically invalid given the Big Ten's ineptitude. That said...) Northwestern is 48th in pass efficiency defense, 23rd in rushing defense, and 35th in scoring defense. They're average in sacks (52nd) and below average at getting into the backfield (82nd). Regardless of these national rankings, though, this is the same team that allowed 41 points to Syracuse, 39 to Penn State, and 29 to Nebraska. This is a good-not-great defense.

The biggest concern for Michigan on this side of the ball is that this game pits weakness against weakness. If Michigan had its offensive line from last year, they would be able to bulldoze an undersized Wildcat defensive line and get to the second level. With the performance of Michigan's interior line this season, that's unlikely, which means Borges will have to rely on either Denard or Gardner to pass against the team's strongest unit.

Defense vs. Northwestern

Against Iowa, Northwestern finally figured out that Kain Coulter was their best player, so he'll be playing quarterback for most/all of the game on Saturday. Coulter isn't much of a passer, but the kid has speed to burn. For the season, Coulter is completing 69.7% of his passes, but for only 5.8 YPA. This is a dink and dunk offense through the air, but a dangerous offense on the ground (they own the 13th ranked rushing offense in the country).

Starting junior running back Venric Mark is averaging 6.5 YPC this season on 166 carries. To complement that attack, Coulter is averaging 5.5 YPC on 114 carries. This may be one of Northwestern's more impressive offenses in recent history. The offensive line features three seniors and two sophomores and will be difficult for Michigan's defensive line to handle.

Through the air, there's not much to be scared of. Despite the fact that they have highly touted recruit Kyle Prater (once a Michigan target), none of the Wildcat wide receivers are very dangerous. Then again, they don't had a quarterback to attack defenses vertically; starting wide receiver Tony Jones averages on 29 yards per game. Regardless of their talent level, this is the kind of passing attack that Michigan's secondary can thrive against. JT Floyd has made a living jumping short routes and Raymon Taylor has proven a sure tackler who is occasionally susceptible to pass interference.

This game will be settled by Michigan's front seven. Playing Nebraska recently will help in the preparation for this Wildcat outfit. They run similar run-first option schemes, but Northwestern has a star at running back where Nebraska was lacking one. Frank Clark made his return last week against Minnesota and promptly showed that he's still undisciplined when maintaining the edge. His ability to fight his instincts will be important. Otherwise, it falls on the shoulders of the usual suspects: Jake Ryan, Desmond Morgan, and Jordan Kovacs.

The point is, Northwestern's offense is one dimensional, but that dimension can be really dangerous if a defense gets caught out of position. Floyd and Taylor have been improving at getting off blocks on the edge and Ryan has shown he's one of the best linebackers in the league (and more importantly, in space).

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Shut down Northwestern's rushing offense. That's easier said than done, but given their performance against Nebraska two weeks ago in the face of 2008 Michigan Offense, I'm confident that Michigan can hold down this defense for the majority of the game. The Wildcats thrive on big plays, which is something Michigan's defense has been great at shutting down. On the other side of the ball, Michigan needs to find a way to move the ball consistently. The Northwestern linebackers are the real deal, so getting consistent yardage on 1st and 2nd down will be key to sustain drives and give the offense a chance to put points on the board.

How does Northwestern win? Neutralizing Michigan's defensive line will be the first step to a Wildcat win. No non-Alabama opponent has been able to do that, but Northwestern has the offensive line that might be able to. The Wildcat offense will also have to exploit some of the youth in Michigan's front seven. Frank Clark is particularly susceptible to misdirection and Desmond Morgan may struggle with the speed of Coulter and Mark. Defensively, the Wildcats need to win the line of scrimmage and get into the backfield quickly. Teams that shut down Michigan's offense always have a way of disrupting their rhythm and forcing third and long.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 57.16%

Final prediction: Northwestern will struggle to move the ball in this game. Penn State has the only defense on the Wildcat schedule to date that's any good, and Michigan's defense is almost certainly better than the Nittany Lions'. Northwestern averages 237 rushing yards per game, but Michigan will hold them under 200 and somewhere closer to 4 YPC than 5 YPC. When Michigan has the ball, however, the Northwestern linebackers prove to be as disruptive as they have been all season. Michigan once again loses the battle at the line of scrimmage and Fitz Toussaint fails to break 50 yards rushing. Denard plays but not particularly well; feeling pressure from the media and Gardner's performance last week, Denard throws two bad interceptions in this game but also manages to break a long run. It's a low-scoring game that Michigan wins in a nail biter. Northwestern 17 - Michigan 20

Preview: Terrible Minnesota 2012 Hurricane Sandy Edition

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Michigan vs. Minnesota

TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Kickoff 12:00 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-40s, 20% chance of rain 

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It's been a long week. I finally got back to Michigan on Wednesday night and have been trying to catch up with school work since then. Hurricanes suck.

Michigan is going to beat Minnesota and no level of analysis I can do will make you think otherwise. There will be hemming and hawing about Michigan not beating Minnesota by enough, but tomorrow will be a Wolverine win. That will be all.

Preview: Michigan State 2012

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Michigan State vs. Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-50s, 20% chance of rain 

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MSU Last Week

Iowa 19 - MSU 16 (2OT). Andrew Maxwell, intent on bringing back Sparty No! threw a pick in the second half of double overtime to end the Spartans bid to beat inexplicably 4-2 Iowa. Le'Veon Bell had his best game of the season and finally looked like the dangerous running back he's rumored to be but still only managed 4.8 YPC (albeit on 29 carries). Andrew Maxwell is still an inexperienced, inconsistent quarterback that is most certainly not Kirk Cousins. Against Iowa, he threw 12/31 for 179 yards and 1 INT. Maxwell has a lively arm but accuracy is a major concern. The only MSU wide receiver that anyone ever needs to be scared of is Aaron Burbridge who had 89 yards on five catches.

Iowa was worse than MSU but somehow managed the win. Supposed-to-be best QB in the conference James Vandenberg was terrible, completing just 19 of 36 passes for 134 yards (3.7 YPA). Don't let those numbers fool you: not even checkdowns were a guarantee. Iowa's only running back with two legs, Mark Weisman, ran stride for stride with Bell, averaging 4.5 YPC on 26 carries.

This was a game of incompetent offenses that someone had to win. Iowa was the beneficiary of the game's most critical turnover (Maxwell's in 2OT) which decided the outcome.

(I'm removing what Michigan did last week from this section because you know what happened last week.)

Offense vs. Michigan State

Michigan State's defense is the only thing that's kept them in games this season because their offense is atrocious. MSU ranks 8th in rushing yards per game allowed, 12th in pass efficiency defense, and 14th in scoring defense. The other side of the coin is that the Spartans haven't played anyone this year that can really fill up the scoreboard. The only team with a respectable offense (Indiana, of all teams; 31st in points per game) put up 27 points in the first half against MSU before being shut down in the second half (more on this later).

The Spartans are led, not surprisingly, by junior middle linebacker Max Bullough who has 31 solo tackles, 27 assists, 5.5 TFLs, 2 PBUs, and a forced fumble. Bullough is the real deal: a great downfield run stuffer who can drop into coverage and is never caught out of position. Think Kenny Demens' ceiling. At the SLB spot is junior Denicos Allen who is the team's second leading tackler in his second year as the starter. And at the WLB position will be senior Chris Norman.

Combined, the starting linebackers account for 12.5 TFLs of the team's 38. This is an aggressive, blitzing group. These tendencies were exploited against Indiana, where the Hoosiers were able to march up and down the field almost exclusively on bubble screens in the first half. With such dogged determination to get into the backfield, MSU's linebackers are susceptible to horizontal attacks. Hopefully Al Borges was watching this game and took notes; tunnel screens back to the inside of the field are not going to end well, but throw bubbles to the boundary and Michigan could find easy first downs all game.

The concern for Michigan against this unit is, like last year, the double A-gap blitz that makes Denard heave balls off his back foot. These are plays that Rimington award winner David Molk struggled to block. Tasking Elliott Mealer with the same responsibilities spells trouble. To slow down Pat Narduzzi's blitzing defense as well as take pressure off the interior of the offensive line, Borges will have to use screen passes extensively.

While the Spartan linebackers are some of the best in the conference, the team's defensive line is suspect save William Gholston, who you know about. The starting DTs senior Anthony Rashad White and sophomore James Kittridge are non-factors. They try to play much like Michigan's defensive tackles: consume as many offensive linemen as possible and give your linebackers a chance to make tackles. Sophomore strongside defensive end Marcus Rush is good-not-great. He's what you want out of a strongside defensive end: holds up against the run, bats down passes at the line of scrimmage, and occasionally gets into the backfield.

Then of course there's Gholston, a pass-rush extraordinaire who has never been very impressive against Michigan/Taylor Lewan. Gholston has 5 TFLs but only one sack this season. Add in 4 PBUs and a forced fumble and his statistical profile fills out a bit. Ace at MGoBlog is down on Gholston:

If there's a weak point on this defense, it's—wait for it—WDE William Gholston, a quarterfinalist for the Lombardi Award based entirely on reputation. He's been benched at times this season for redshirt freshman Joel Heath. There's a reason for this: Gholston can chase plays down from the backside and bat down passes at the line, but if teams run right at him he gets buried regularly

At 6'7", 278 lbs, Gholston is pretty wiry, but he's still a terror in passing situations. Also, excellent backside pursuit is the kind of thing that can destroy an option running game or a hesitant running back (Fitz Toussaint). If Lewan can handle Gholston like he has the last two years, Michigan could dominate this defense, but with lingering injuries to Lewan, that may be a problem.

In the secondary, Darqueze Dennard is one of the better cover corners in the Big Ten and could present some problems for Michigan's receivers getting open. However, he'll likely be tasked with covering Devin Gardner who is a good six inches taller than him.

Defense vs. Michigan State

OK, so, Le'Veon Bell. I will say this now and you will believe me later: Le'Veon Bell is not a great running back. At 6'2", 244 lbs, he's a moose, but he doesn't have the complementary speed to make him truly dangerous. He can occasionally (occasionally) make people miss in space, but otherwise, his running style is to make contact a yard beyond the line of scrimmage and rumble forward for 3 yards. You can blame his offensive line, if you want, but power running backs, regardless of their offensive line, should probably average more than 3.8 YPC against Central Michigan. Combined with a shoddy offensive line, Bell will remind you more of a third-string Wisconsin running back than similar body types from squads like Alabama.

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, MSU's offense is pretty remedial, led of course by the rushing attack of Bell. MSU ranks 84th in rushing offense, 59th in passing offense, and 102nd in scoring. There are plenty of reasons that the offense struggles, but it starts with the Spartans' makeshift offensive line. Starting right tackle Fou Fonoti and center Travis Jackson have each gone down for the season with injuries. Another important injury is to starting tight end Dion Sims who was the team's leading receiver when he went down with a sprained ankle and helped get push in the running game for a mediocre offensive line. On MSU's first snap, they could be starting two redshirt freshman, two sophomores, and a fifth-year senior on their offensive line.

However, Michigan State's offensive line has been a mess the last two years and each season, the Spartans have found a way to grind Michigan's front seven to dust and protect their quarterback. Though I hate this kind of reasoning, I'm glad to see Kirk Cousins go because he was one of those guys that Just Wins against Michigan. Andrew Maxwell may get the same kind of protection that Cousins got against Michigan's defenses, but he doesn't have the kind of consistency or accuracy that Cousins did. Maxwell has a lively arm but not a lot of touch and is highly erratic. He's completing only 54.3% of his passes this season and averaging only 6.28 YPA. Throw in just 6 TDs to 4 INTs and you have the makings for a not great QB. This isn't pressure-induced, either; MSU ranks 40th in sacks allowed.

Perhaps the biggest hindrance to MSU's offense is the lackluster group of wide receivers. No longer is Keshawn Martin running jet sweeps around the edges of the defense or BJ Cunningham getting open everywhere. Though Keith Mumphrey leads the Spartans in receptions and receiving yards, the only threat is freshman Aaron Burbridge, who at 6'1" is not the Michael Floyd pterodactyl type that Michigan's secondary struggles against. Expect MSU to try and take a few uncharacteristic deep shots to Burbridge with JT Floyd in coverage, but unless Maxwell is dropping those in his lap, Michigan's secondary will just have to concern itself with underneath hitch routes and crossing patterns.

How Michigan's defensive line fares against this depleted front of MSU will determine the game. Against the run, expect Quinton Washington and Will Campbell the continue the dominance they showed against Illinois. Tightening running lanes and keeping offensive lineman at the line of scrimmage will allow the linebackers to hit and swarm Bell. When MSU drops back to pass, I actually expect Michigan to blitz a lot less than they have in the past. With a lackluster group of wide receivers and a mediocre offensive line, the defense will be able to rely on coverage sacks rather than getting pressure with linebackers. This also helps defend against MSU's reliance on tight ends in the passing game, flooding underneath zones with linebackers.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? The combination of Maxwell and MSU's receivers are not a threat to Michigan's secondary, the Spartan offensive line is once again shaky, and Bell doesn't have the home-run power to get Michigan into an uncomfortable situation offensively. If the defensive linemen continue to allow the linebackers to make plays, Michigan should be able to shut down MSU's offense.

When Michigan has the ball, testing the edges of the Spartans' defense will be key to opening running lanes and getting Denard time in the pocket to throw. Jet sweeps and bubble screens should keep MSU honest while the rest of Michigan's base offense should be enough to march down the field.

How does Michigan State win? The offensive line has to play its best game of the season for them to give Maxwell time in the pocket and the receivers time to get open. Le'Veon Bell will need to show that he's more than a 3 yards and a cloud of dust star and force Michigan's linebackers to commit fully to the run. This will open up passing lanes off of play action.

Shutting down Michigan's offense will be harder for the Spartans. MSU's linebackers need to return on their potential and Narduzzi's blitzes will need to generate turnovers. MSU can help their cause by finding a way to stop Denard on the inverted veer and forcing Toussaint to make Michigan's rushing yards.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 60% (I said this before the season and I'm sticking with it)

Final prediction. Denard's rushing totals take a major hit in this game, but Toussaint finally finds some lanes to run through. MSU understands the threat of Denard's legs and have probably gamplanned to stay home on him on all option plays. There will be a fumble generated on a linebacker blitz against an option play. Also, we'll see the return of Denard's back-foot heaves that end serendipitously, mostly thrown to Devin Gardner who makes a few astonishing catches in traffic.

On the other side of the ball, MSU won't be able to get rolling all game. Michigan's linebackers completely shut down Bell who averages ~3 YPC. Maxwell, meanwhile, will have a higher completion percentage than you'd expect but also throws two costly interceptions.

Saturday proves to still be relatively low-scoring, however. Both teams stall out just outside of field goal range a few times and there is at least one missed field goal. Michigan State 9 - Michigan 20

Preview: Terrible Illinois 2012

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Terrible Illinois vs. Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

ABC/ESPN

Forecast: High-50s, 100% chance of rain (really?)

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Last Week
Illinois 14 - Wisconsin 31. Illinois has not won a Big Ten game in over a calendar year. In fact, the last time they won a game in the conference was October 8, 2011, when the Fighting Illini beat Indiana 41-20. Now, this doesn't have anything to do with last week despite the fact that they lost to another Big Ten team, this time, Terrible Wisconsin.

Last week's game was relatively close until the fourth quarter. The teams were tied 7-7 going into the half with Illinois' only score coming on a Nathan Scheelhaase scramble and Wisconsin scoring on a 62-yard James White screen pass. Wisconsin was doing everything in its power to prove that it's no longer 2011 until the fourth quarter when they forced two three-and-outs, allowed only a field goal, and racked up 21 points including a two-play, 59-yard touchdown drive.

Scheelhaase went 18/29 for 178 yards (6.1 YPA) with 1 TD and 1 INT. He also racked up 82 yards on 22 carries. In other words, a typical Sheelhaase day. The rest of Illinois' offense was a non-factor. Meanwhile, Wisconsin mediocreback Joel Stave was able to throw for 254 yards on only 25 attempts.

Michigan 44 - Purdue 13. Last week, Michigan looked like the Michigan everyone hoped. Denard looked like Good Denard again: 8/16 for 105 yards through the air--and the best part, no interceptions--and 235 yards on 25 carries. Fitzgerald Toussaint had a rough day, but everyone else who touched the ball for the Maize and Blue found green grass ahead of them.

The defense turned in possibly its best performance of the year, limiting Purdue to just 213 yards on 12 drives; they forced/were gifted four turnovers; the linebackers are finally getting to their run fills on time; the defensive line is getting push; and the secondary is continuing its aggressive man-to-man coverage without giving up big plays.

Offense vs. Terrible Illinois

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

BCS competition has scored no less than 31 points against Illinois in each game this year (Arizona State 45, Penn State 35, and Wisconsin 31, in addition to 52 points allowed to Louisiana Tech). Though the team ranks 38th in rushing yards per game allowed, they are 97th in pass efficiency defense; teams do not need to run the ball against the Illini because they're porous through the air.

If those numbers don't prove how pedestrian this defense is, the Illini's most dangerous defender is weakside defensive end Michael Buchanan, who has 2.5 sacks and 5 TFLs. The team's leading tackler, however is strong safety Ashante Williams. I am firmly of the belief that when your strong safety is your leading tackler, that's a bad thing (see: Jordan Kovacs 2009-2010).

No one will be happier to play Illinois than Fitz Toussaint. This will be the first time all year that Michigan plays a BCS opponent without multiple NFL draft picks in the front seven. Neither defensive tackle Akeem Spence nor Glenn Foster should be much of a problem for Michigan interior line to handle. Justin Staples and Buchanan aren't much for defensive ends, either (Illinois is 89th in the country in sacks). This will be a good barometer for Michigan's offensive line going forward.

With only five interceptions in 6 games, Illinois' secondary isn't much to fret about, but as always, generating turnovers against Michigan comes down to getting pressure on Denard (by the way, Michigan has the highest interception percentage in the country with 8.47%; the only team even close is Auburn with 8%). With a lackluster defensive line, Illinois will likely struggle to get the kind of pressure necessary to affect Denard unless they blitz a lot. With a strong bounceback game against Purdue, Denard and Borges look to be back on the same page. Though last week wasn't Denard's best performance through the air, it was more than enough to get the job done when you're averaging 9.8 YPC.

Expect a similar offensive structure this week: lots of inverted veer runs, with short passes and limited downfield shots. Borges may try to get Devin Funchess involved in the passing game a little more in this game after mostly falling off the map in the last few weeks. This can be attributed to teams actually guarding him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more routes run with Funchess as the first read.

Defense vs. Terrible Illinois

Jonathan Daniel | Getty Images North America

So Nathan Scheelhaase is still Illinois' quarterback despite all of the available evidence against him. Dude plays like Tate Forcier, except he can't throw and doesn't look to extend plays in order to pass. So, not like Tate Forcier at all, but that's who he'll remind you of. Scheelhaase has started his third year as a starter poorly. He's completing 62% of his passes but only averaging 6.34 YPA. Add in a 3/5 TD/INT ratio and you have the makings of a disappointing junior year. Caveats for playing for a new coaching staff apply, but he doesn't look like he has a breakout performance waiting in reserves.

Flanking Scheelhaase in the backfield will be a number of different players, but sophomore Donovan Young leads the team in carries with 59. Young is averaging only 3.8 YPC, but few players are doing better: freshman Josh Ferguson is averaging 4.1 YPC and Scheelhaase is averaging a career low 2.3 YPC (down a yard from 2011). This is not a good offense: 101st in total offense, 78th in passing efficiency, and 94th in rushing yards per game. The only real receiving threat on the Illinois roster is junior Ryan Lankford who is averaging 14.5 yards per catch and has 5 yards on the season, but Lankford isn't the elite-level receiver that can really threaten Michigan's secondary.

This Wolverines defense is quietly becoming elite again. It ranks 7th in passing yards allowed per game, 26th in pass efficiency defense, and 37th in scoring defense. With Mattison and Hoke capable of turning anyone over 300 lbs into a reliable+ defensive lineman, this will become a perennial occurrence. The bad news for Illinois: they rank 109th in sacks allowed this season despite having a scrambling QB and option running game. This is not a good offensive line, which Mattison will take advantage of and the defensive line should dominate.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Come to play and don't turn the ball over. Illinois' offense is anemic, their defense has been torched by anyone resembling a decent offense, and there are no real offensive-threats/breakout players on Illinois' offense. Barring another Denarmageddon, this should be a routine game much like the Purdue win. (ps, It's a weird feeling being confident about a Big Ten game.)

How does Terrible Illinois win? Blitz. Force turnovers. Hope for a bad day from Denard. Kickoff/punt returns for TDs.

Arbitrary percentage that Michigan wins: 88.397%

Final prediction: Michigan starts scoring early and doesn't look back. Denard doesn't have nearly the rushing totals he did against Purdue, but that's offset by Fitz Toussaint having his best game of the season, finally breaking the 100-yard mark. Denard lights it up through the air though and finishes with two TDs and no interceptions. Defensively, JT Floyd has another strong game but is overshadowed by Jake Ryan who has 3 TFLs. Scheelhaase is pressured early and often and ends up throwing one arm-punt that sets Michigan up for an easy touchdown. Terrible Illinois 13 - Michigan 49

Preview: Purdue 2012

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Michigan vs. Purdue

Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind

Kickoff 4:00 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-50s, 20% chance of rain

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Last week
Marshall 41 - Purdue 51. With 1/3 of Purdue's Big Ten division ineligible to win the conference title and Wisconsin coping poorly with losing Russell Wilson and most of their coaching staff, Purdue was the hot pick before the season to win the Leaders division and potentially the Big Ten. The results to date against three mediocre-to-terrible opponents (and Notre Dame) have been vintage Purdue. The Boilermakers pulled off a late game-tying touchdown against Notre Dame before allowing a game-winning 27-yard field goal a little more than two minutes later. In addition to commanding performances against powerhouses Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Michigan, last week Purdue managed to hold off the Marshall Thundering Herd for a 51-41 win.

Despite Marshall's weak schedule (West Virginia, Western Carolina, Ohio, Rice, and Purdue), the pass-heavy squad still rank 60th in the nation in rushing yards per game, and were able to chalk up 95 yards on 23 carries (4.1 YPC) against Purdue. Meanwhile, Rakeem Cato dinked and dunked down the field and racked up 439 yards on 68 (!!!) passing attempts. Meanwhile, the Marshall defense is just as bad as you might expect when Purdue puts up 51 on a team: 98th in pass efficiency defense, 110th in rushing defense, and 120th in scoring defense.

Though Purdue led big early in the game, Marshall eventually cut the Boilermaker lead to 10 points early in the fourth quarter but wasn't able to completely close the gap. If you were looking for reasons why Purdue might be an actual contender in the Big Ten this year, last week's game doesn't offer much evidence.

Michigan: Bye week.

Offense vs. Purdue

Usually, I would put a picture of Denard here and say something like "It depends on how well Denard does", but the most important player on the field when Michigan has the ball will be Purdue defensive tackle Kawann Short. Short is a 6'3" penetrating defensive tackle who annihilated Notre Dame earlier this year and already has 4 sacks (tied for 20th in the country). While Denard's performance is still the crux of Michigan's offense, Short will largely be responsible for how this game plays out.

This puts a lot of pressure on Michigan's interior line, namely Elliott Mealer who will spend most of the game grappling with Short (or Bruce Gaston, who is also a load to handle). If Mealer's performances to date are any indication, Short is going to be trouble for this offense. We all know what happens when Denard gets pressure in his face. If Mealer, Patrick Omameh, and Ricky Barnum can't contain short, expect a repeat of Denard's Notre Dame performance: errant, back-foot throws and rushed decisions.

The way to slow down Short and the rest of the Purdue front line is with screens, which Al Borges fucking loves. Expect a lot of those tunnel screens to Jeremy Gallon and a few bubble screens that make you think Borges is changing his ways (hint: he's not). Otherwise, it will be par for the course: some inverted veer runs, high-variance vertical passing game, and plenty of under center stuff.

Purdue's defense is largely untested but might be good+. Notre Dame (Michigan's closest talent equivalent on Purdue's schedule) went 24/39 for 324 yards (8.3 YPC) through the air, but only managed 52 yards on 34 carries. You can thank Short for that kind of performance. Then again, the Irish only managed 3 YPC against Michigan, so it's more likely that Notre Dame's offense is terrible. Regardless, if Michigan is going to win this game, the interior line is going to need to play lots better than they did against Notre Dame and Denard will need to be significantly improved. The takeaway: be scared of Purdue's defensive tackles and basically no one else.

Defense vs. Purdue

With Robert Marve (likely) out with an ACL injury, the quarterbacking duties once again fall on the shoulder of Caleb TerBush. TerBush's statline for the season is very Purdue: 6.64 YPA, 7 TDs, 4 INTs, and 49 yards on 20 rushing attempts. When you think of Purdue, you think of TerBush.

All of that is not his fault, however. He's not working with very many weapons. Hey, remember that time that Roy Roundtree was kind of a "get" for Purdue and then Rich Rodriguez stole him and then he had a good season and then he reminded everyone why he was a Purdue commit in the first place? Yeah, well, Purdue's commits committed to and then attended Pudue, so, when thinking about this wide receiver crops, just think of Roy Roundtree minus the breakout season. Currently playing the role of Best Roundtree is Antavian Edison, who leads the team with 285 yards on 24 catches.

Carrying the rock primarily will be Akeem Shavers who is averaging 4.1 YPC on 58 attempts, but 11 players on Purdue's roster have carried the ball more than twice this year. Key to stopping Purdue's rushing game (which, for the record, does rank 32nd in the nation in yards per game) will be edge responsibility, per usual. No one on the Boilermaker roster is much of a gamechanger though. Michigan will have to contend with wide-receiver jet sweeps and probably a few option looks during the game, but this is the kind of straightforward, non-threatening rushing attack that Mattison should be able to shut down.

The good news for Michigan's defense is that the Notre Dame game was a revelation for the defensive line, though as mentioned above, Notre Dame's offense is probably not very good. If Will Campbell and Quinton Washington can build upon the performance they showed last week, the defense might not be as terrifying every week. The real players to watch, however, will be the linebackers. Purdue's short passing game and rushing attack will test Michigan's young linebackers.

Speaking of Purdue's passing attack, JT Floyd is going to have a good game. Last year, Floyd specialized in jumping short routes and being aggressive on dink-and-dunk teams. Though he's been a borderline liability this season, Floyd has a big bounce back game and returns to the aggressive, attacking corner Michigan fans came to love last year. Raymon Taylor, however, will probably be victimized a number of times tomorrow as his youth will lend itself to cushions that are too big and a few missed tackles on short routes.

Prediction
How does Michigan win. The key to winning this game is controlling Kawann Short. If Michigan's interior line can shut him down or at least limit his effectiveness, Denard should find plenty of time to find open receivers and running lanes. Stopping Short is just as critical in the running game. Fitz Toussaint has struggled all season, largely because Michigan's offensive line has been getting dominated. Getting Toussaint room to run and space in the backfield will be crucial.

Defensively, Floyd, Courtney Avery, and Taylor need to make sure tackles and break up some of Purdue's short passing routes. The Boilermakers will have some frustrating long drives, but key to stopping them is forcing penalties (on the shoulders of the defensive line) and breaking up a few short passes.

How does Purdue win. Kawann Short. If he plays to his potential, he should crush the Michigan offensive line, at which point, it's up to the Purdue secondary to pick off Denard's sure-to-be errant throws. Short will also disrupt the Michigan running game which hasn't been able to get off the ground all season.

Offensively for Purdue, they need TerBush to take care of the ball, complete everything underneath, and manage the game. TerBush doesn't have the arm or legs to really punish Michigan's defense, even when it becomes undisciplined. If he doesn't have any crucial mistakes this game, Purdue could find a way to march slowly down the field as Michigan struggles to get pressure on short drops.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 58.34%

Final prediction: It's hard being optimistic about this game given Short and Denard's most recent performance. Michigan's offense is going to stall a lot in this game. But I'm not sure that Purdue's offense will have much success. The over/under for this game is somewhere in the mid- to high-50s, which, if I were a betting man, I'd take the under. This is a low-scoring game with both quarterbacks making a number of mistakes. Short's strength and Michigan's interior line weaknesses actually dictate how this game goes, but Denard breaks a long run that ends up being the difference. Michigan 17 - Purdue 16.

Preview: Notre Dame 2012

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#18 Michigan vs. #11 Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium

Kickoff 7:30 pm EST

NBC

Forecast: High-50s, 50% chance of rain

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Last week
#20 Notre Dame 20 - #10 Michigan State 3. Last week, Notre Dame proved what I've been telling people since the season began: Michigan State ain't that good. Le'Veon Bell averaged 4.1 YPC on 19 totes, which is actually a pretty good turnout for him (minus the one or two 60-yard runs he's been breaking off against weak competition). And Andrew Maxwell earned himself the Captain Checkdown Of The Week award with 187 yards on 23/45 passing (4.2 YPA). Though, MSU's shoddy offensive line did no Spartans any favors.

Notre Dame, played well, but their greatest achievement was getting everyone who votes in the polls to overrate them again. QB Everett Golson had a fairly lackluster day (14/32, 178 yards, 1TD). Bowling ball Cierre Wood--fresh off his two-game suspension--acquitted himself well with 56 yards on 10 carries. But this game was a defensive struggle: only 537 yards of combined total offense, a combined 6-31 on third down, and 16 punts.

UMass 13 - #17 Michigan 63.

Offense vs. Notre Dame
Fi Fie Fo Film

Denard's career stats versus Notre Dame: 35/64 through the air for 582 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, and 48 carries for 387 yards (3 TDs). Though Michigan fans all have fond memories of Denard taking on the Irish, in a dozen alternate universes, people have a much different sentiment regarding the lace-less one and the Domers. This has not escaped Hoke and the rest of the coaching staff who have mentioned a few times this week that last year's game didn't go as planned until the final quarter of the game.

The name everyone remembers on Notre Dame's defense is linebacker Manti Te'o. His superstar has only been diminished by a fairly lackluster group surrounding him to date. Otherwise, Te'o has lived up to all the hype. Running through the middle of the field against Notre Dame is a harrowing affair with Te'o roaming around. Whether or not he'll be able to make the shoestring tackles that Nebraska's Levonte David did against Denard last year will go a long way to determining how this game plays out.

The other problem running the ball against Notre Dame is its intimidating defensive line, led by nose tackle Louis Nix III. The Fighting Irish have had three games against mediocre-to-good rushing teams (Navy, Purdue, MSU) and still rank 23rd in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed per game.

The weakness in Notre Dame's defense is a secondary that looks like Michigan's in 2010. To date, ND has lost safety Jamorris Slaughter, safety Austin Collinsworth, and starting cornerback Lo Wood to season-ending injuries. Despite these injuries, Notre Dame's passing rank is still high: 38th nationally in passing yards allowed per game and and 26th nationally in pass efficiency defense. However, the Fighting Irish have played Navy (an option team that never throws the ball), Captain Checkdown, and Purdue. They haven't really been tested this season.

The matchups to watch will be whether or not Te'o can adequately cover Devin Funchess on seam and wheel routes downfield and whether or not anyone in the ND secondary can cover Devin Gardner. The other potential turning point--and Michigan fans are used to watching for things like this already--will be whether or not an inexperienced secondary can maintain proper outside leverage and not let Denard/Fitz Toussaint get to the edge. With Borges utilizing bubble screens this year, testing young safeties in open space may be a way to gain easy yardage throughout the game.

Defense vs. Notre Dame

On paper, Notre Dame's offense is not very intimidating: 67th in rushing offense, 67th in passing offense, 74th at pass efficiency, and 61st in scoring offense. However, they also have Cierre Wood (pictured above). Last year, Wood racked up 134 yards on just 25 carries (5.4 YPC) against Michigan, and that was with NFL talents like Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen manning the defensive line. Now? Yeesh. Wood is fast and tough to bring down, and with a suspect defensive line and young/mediocre linebackers, this game will show just how good (or bad, as the case may be) Michigan's defense will be this year.

The passing defense is less harrowing. Sophomore quarterback Everett Golson is completing 58% of his passes this season, and has only 3 touchdown passes (1 INT). Michigan's secondary is equipped to defend whatever Golson can bring. Expect Greg Mattison to send a lot of blitzes his way to try and hurry the young quarterback into bad throws. When plays do break down, Golson has some scrambling ability, but not enough to really scare the Michigan defense. He'll probably pick up a few frustrating first downs on third and long, but if Michigan can limit those conversions, they should be able to make the Irish offense stall out.

The team's leading receiver is senior tight end Tyler Eifert, who will present some problems for Michigan. Guarding him will come down to Jordan Kovacs or various linebackers staying disciplined on play action and adequately covering him downfield. Otherwise, Notre Dame doesn't have many truly threatening wide receivers, the first time in what seems like a decade.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Defy previous performances. Michigan performances to date are not going to win this game. The defensive line needs to significantly outperform their turnout to date. It's not necessary to get a ton of pass rush from the interior (not going to happen anyway) or tear through the offensive line for tackles for loss, but they need to hold up against Notre Dame's talented offensive line and allow the linebackers adequate time to hit the proper holes and make tackles. Speaking of tackles, the Wolverine defenders need to do a better job of wrapping up the ball carrier.

Offensively, Denard needs to play like 2011 Notre Dame 4th Quarter Denard for the entire game. Luckily Denard probably has the most-complete set of offensive weapons that he's ever had. Funchess and Gardner are players that will need to beat up a bruised Notre Dame secondary. If the offensive line can hold up on running plays, that will open up the passing game for Denard and his receivers.

How does Notre Dame win? If all of this season's evidence is more prescient than Michigan fans hope. Notre Dame should win this game: it's at home, their resume is far superior to Michigan's, and they have more pure talent on both sides of the ball (probably; offense is a toss-up). The Fighting Irish can help themselves by forcing multiple turnovers from Denard, and if they're able to annihilate the Michigan offensive line the way the rest of their opponents have, it's going to be a long day for the Michigan offense.

Arbitrary percentage that Michigan wins: 43.79%

Final prediction. It's a close game, but Michigan's weaknesses in the first three weeks prove to be very real. The defensive line can't stop Wood from averaging over 5 yards per carry and the offensive line gets hammered by Notre Dame's front seven. Fitz Toussaint has another bad day and we all start panicking about the offensive line again as the offense fails to get in the endzone on multiple red zone trips. Denard has a good day through the air but also throws two interceptions. Michigan 23 - Notre Dame 24

Preview: UMass 2012

That will be all.

Preview: Air Force 2012

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Air Force vs. #19 Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

ABC/ESPN2

Forecast: Mid-60s, 30% chance of rain

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Last Week
Idaho St. 21 - Air Force 49. Air Force faced off against the mighty Bengals of Idaho State last week and trounced them in typical Air Force fashion: 484 yards rushing on 58 attempts (8.3 YPC!!!). Running back Cody Getz accounted for the brunt of the load (17 carries, 218 yards, 3 TDs) while senior quarterback Connor Dietz did exactly what you expect an option QB to do (8/11 for 142 yards, 7 carries for 74 yards and 1 TD). In total, 11 different players carried the ball at least once for Air Force.

#8 Michigan 14 - #2 Alabama 41. Game recap. You know what happened here. Michigan came up against the closest thing to a juggernaut that college football will see this season. Denard struggled, the running game was non-existant, and the defense was shredded. It's been a while since Michigan was that summarily beaten, but that's what happens when you face the defending national champs and oversigning devotees.

Offense vs. Air Force
Read also: Fee Fi Foe Film

Gregory Shamus | Getty Images North America

With Air Force playing against an FCS team--especially one that was so bad last year (2-9)--last week's game doesn't give us much of an indication of how good the Falcons are. What we do know: they run a traditional 3-4 defense that was pretty soft last year. In 2011, the Falcons ranked 109th in rushing defense, 81st in pass efficiency defense, and 72nd in scoring defense.

Other than those basics, I'm not really sure what to expect from this Air Force team. I haven't had time to watch much film of them so instead of me pulling out a bunch of random stats, I'll direct you to Ace's Fee Fi Foe Film:

Air Force is woefully undersized on defense, which dictates much of what they do. Starting nose tackle Cody Miller weighs just 260 pounds and is flanked by defensive ends weighing 240 and 265 pounds each; frequently-used backup nose Nick DeJulion tips the scales at just 240, which Michigan would consider undersized for their weakside DE spot.

This results in teams running roughshod over the Falcons. Despite doing a good job of preventing big plays, they gave up 4.96 yards per carry in 2011, and Notre Dame gashed them for 266 yards on 9.6(!) ypa in their matchup last season. This is the ultimate bend-but-don't-break defense

How will Michigan fare against that kind of a defense? Probably really well. The return of Fitz Toussaint and Not Playing Alabama should help Michigan find its groove on offense. Denard and Toussaint should find lanes, and Michigan's offensive line should look much improved (including Michael Schofield, who struggled against Alabama, but will have a much easier time against the undersized Air Force).

If Michigan builds up any kind of sustainable lead (not a guarantee; see: Defense vs. Air Force), this game should be used as an open practice for Denard to get into rhythm with his receivers. Though Alabama was an experience Michigan won't face again, it was clear that Denard and his receivers have a lot of kinks to work out. We need to be careful though: it may be dangerous for the team going forward if Devin Gardner dominates a team like Air Force with shoddy mechanics. If he can't iron out his route-running and blocking issues, his utilization as the #1 receiver this year may be problematic.

Defense vs. Air Force

Via ugh

Before last week, this game seemed like a tune-up on gap responsibilities, assignment football, and tackling. In the wake of the Great Linebacker Implosion of 2012, Air Force's brand of option football looks like a daunting matchup for this defense.

You probably haven't seen Air Force play, but you may have seen Paul Johnson's Georgia Tech teams. GT and Air Force both run the wishbone offense, which has an A, B, and C back in addition to a run-first quarterback. The basic setup looks like a 5-man offensive line with two H-backs (via MGoBlog):

This is a triple option offense. The quarterback's first read is usually a dive play to the fullback. (I still have no idea who the quarterback reads here, but he's reading someone.) If the fullback dive has been taken away, the quarterback will pull the ball out and run a traditional pitch option with one of the H-backs (who pulls around the formation).

On paper, the base play in the wishbone is not all that difficult to defend, but offensive coordinators who run this system have hundreds of subtle variations on that play intended to block whatever player has been making tackles. I'll let Smart Football explain:

The Navy blog "The Birddog" has a great post breaking down elements of Paul Johnson's flexbone offense. The videos he culls exhibit something I've tried to explain about defending Johnson's offense: you can't just play "assignment football." That term gets thrown around by announcers a lot, with the implication being that all you have to do is "assign" one guy to the dive back, one to the quarterback, and one to the pitch back. The problem is that Johnson will figure out your assignments and change his blocking schemes accordingly.

If Michigan's linebackers weren't indecisive against the run, this would still be a fearsome offense to try to stop. Unfortunately. Defensively, this game will come down to the linebackers properly playing the pitch option, keeping the ball to the inside of the field, and reading and reacting to what the Air Force offense is doing.

As for the passing game, this seems like the kind of game that you want following an injury to your second-best cornerback (Blake Countess; Air Force rarely throws the ball more than a dozen times a game), but it's possible to see a less experienced corner getting caught cheating against the run. Though the Falcons' passing game won't intimidate Michigan's defense outright, Courtney Avery and JT Floyd will need to stay disciplined and not overreact to the option running game.

Prediction
How does Michigan win: Michigan's offense shouldn't have any problem moving the ball against an undersized Air Force defense. However, I expect the Air Force offense to put up at least 300 rushing yards against Michigan's suspect second-level defense. If Michigan is going to win this game confidently, they're going to need improved play from the linebacker corps. The defensive line will be able to take away the fullback dive all game, so playing disciplined defense on the edges is really all Michigan needs to do.

How does Air Force win: Basically, turnovers and a terrible performance from the linebackers. Denard will have to throw two or three interceptions, and Toussaint will have to put the ball on the ground for Air Force to stop the Michigan offense. On the other side of the ball, Air Force will need to break a few long runs against the defense.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 82.36%

Final Prediction: Michigan gives up a number of long runs early, and the game is relatively close going into the second half, where Denard and Co pull away. The defense eventually forces a turnover or two. Michigan doesn't cover (21 points) but still wins confidently. Air Force 17 - Michigan 35