No Surprises

Central Michigan 9 - Michigan 59

Courtney Sacco | AnnArbor.com

Michigan had an uneventful offseason, at least with regards to recent history. There were no questions about the starting quarterback, no concerns over walk-ons, and the incoming recruiting class was viewed as depth chart fodder rather than necessary reinforcements. Such is the arrival of Brady Hoke. So Michigan trounces Central Michigan in the season opener without any notable injuries or hiccups, and we all shrug. Well, most people shrug and I get panicky about the offensive line.

The box score says domination: 242 rushing yards on 47 carries (5.1 YPC), 221 passing yards on 21 attempts (10.5 YPA), 10 of 15 on third down conversions, and CMU averaged only 3.7 yards per play. But, like Holly Anderson's piece on Jadaveon Clowney's uninspiring 2013 debut says, "You already know that Week 1 college football games aren't all that useful in the discerning sports fan's quest to consume actual, compelling football … It's fun to be able to take one data point and draw a line to anywhere."

Per usual, my data points tends toward fear. My confidence in Greg Mattison, Brady Hoke, and the defensive unit could not be higher. Two seasons of transforming the scraps Rich Rodriguez left on the defensive side of the ball belies any doubt in this coaching staff defensively. Saturday served as confirmation of this belief: short the team's most impactful starter (Jake Ryan), the defense smothered CMU on short fields surrendered because of turnovers and never allowed a drive to exceed 59 yards (that one ending in a 33-yard field goal).

The concern comes from the other side of the ball, in spite of the team posting 59 points on 12 possessions; one punt and three interceptions were the only drives that Michigan came up empty. The game started inauspiciously as Devin Gardner threw a Denardian interception: he determined where to throw the ball before the play had started. His second giveaway was similar: he saw single coverage on the outside with Jeremy Gallon and decided to throw it regardless that Gallon was blanketed. While on the subject, that Gallon couldn't get on top of a CMU cornerback on a fly route does not bode well for his presence as the team's primary deep threat.

Those turnovers were disappointing but not the primary cause for concern: the offensive line's continued inability to get push on under-center runs. Michigan's running game remains either inconsistent or ineffectual. After one game with a new crop of interior lineman, speculating either with certainty is fruitless, but following last year's debacle, optimism (at least around these parts; shock!) is slim. There are caveats for the stumbling running game. Some of it appears schematic: Michigan ran into an overloaded defense several times when Gardner should have checked into a weakside run at the line of scrimmage. That could change as the season progresses. But other issues, such as Gallon's inability to get over the top of CMU's defense, allowing the opposing safeties to creep into the box, may be longer lasting. Or, this could have been the first game-time action from a new crop of interior line starters that just hasn't gelled together yet. But where's the fun in that? Largely irrelevant data point --> Doom.

There were clear positives--pass blocking, Derrick Green, the return of Toussaint, CMU's 2.3 YPA rushing on 29 carries, and Devin Funchess to name a few--but those were expected (perhaps known) before the season. The real insights from this game come from the mistakes, which I'm confident did not escape Hoke, Borges, and Mattison, and should be rectified, or at least patched up, in short order.

Bullets

• My friend and I had a bet on what pass Shane Morris would throw his first interception. He said the third pass, I said the fifth. I won. A relatively uneventful debut from Morris, but it's obvious both where his upside stands and what his current flaws are.
• Toussaint turned in a decent game but was still not the dominating back that we saw in 2011. He had few holes to work with, but made the most of what he was given. If the interior line can't get itself together, Toussaint's season will look more like 2012 than 2011. Also of note, his pass blocking was atrocious in this game.
• Michigan's defense acquitted itself well as a whole, but the zone passing defense proved problematic (perhaps expected because both starting safeties were out). CMU's greatest offensive success came by throwing intermediate routes that the underneath defenders didn't sink on and the safeties weren't reading quickly enough. Northwestern looms large.
• Frank Clark. Man. Lane integrity. Please. Otherwise, keep being fast.
• Jibreel Black was a non-factor in the running game and made a few penetrating moves in the pass game. I don't know how his skillset will matchup against teams with heftier front lines, but for now, concerns about his size as the starting 3-tech are squashed.
• It may be prudent for Michigan not to put a punt returner on the field. Just rush 11 guys at the punter and don't worry about getting any return yards. The returner isn't getting anything meaningful on rugby punts anyway and the team avoids Dennis Norfleet fumbling the ball on the 10 yard line.
• I believe (perhaps hope) that Borges kept most of his tricks in the bag in week one. With Notre Dame coming to town next week, having a whole package of plays they haven't seen yet could pay dividends.

Next Week
Michigan gets Notre Dame under the lights. You know what happened last year, but against Temple, the Irish did not overwhelm. Temple > CMU, but Michigan's Week 1 > ND's Week 1. With Tommy Rees back under center for the Irish, and the loss of Notre Dame's top-two rushers from last year, Michigan's defense should smother Notre Dame, enabling the offense to slog through the game picking up points when they can.

Importance of Michigan's reach block

There's something very wrong with the offensive line, as we've come to realize over the last few games, but a few plays against Northwestern were particularly perplexing. The play below will make you yearn for David Molk and his unique skillset, but it will also make you wonder what exactly the offensive line staff is teaching this unit.

Michigan comes out in its new heavy I-formation, which features Mike Kwiatkowski on one side of the formation and Devin Funchess aligned as an H-back on the other side. This is a zone run left (maybe; I'll discuss this later):

The critical block on this play is for Elliott Mealer to reach the defensive tackle that's aligned off his left shoulder and seal him to the inside. Northwestern comes out in a 4-3 that looks more like a 4-4 with the backside cornerback rolled into the box because he has no one to cover.

Devin Funchess motions across the formation to the playside.

As the ball is snapped, the line blocks left, but the playside defensive tackle gets immediately inside Mealer. The other big problem is Ricky Barnum, whose first step is backward. He is now running behind Taylor Lewan instead of doubling the playside defensive end and allowing Lewan to release upfield.

Funchess comes out of the backfield to block the middle lineback, ignoring the the LB who was rolled up to the line of scrimmage on the playside (that's fullback Joe Kerridge's assignment). Mealer and Barnum are now two yards behind the line of scrimmage. Lewan, who was expecting help from Barnum (I think) is also being pushed into the backfield. This is before Gardner has even handed the ball off.

Toussaint has no choice but to try and bounce it outside...

...and it does not go well.

Video

The Takeaway
OK, so what actually happened here. I'm inclined to think this was a zone blocking scheme, but Barnum's first step leads me to believe this is a man blocking scheme. Here's what I think is happening: Barnum is not technically covered by a defensive tackle. Instead, that tackle is aligned in the playside A gap. If an offensive lineman isn't covered, he's instructed to pull toward the frontside, but in this instance, that requires Mealer reaches his block quickly and without any help.

The other problem with this blocking scheme actually happens on the backside. Patrick Omameh tries releasing to the second level but is engaged by the backside defensive tackle. At the same time, Michael Schofield tries to cut block the backside DT and should have been called for a chop block.

Other surprising aspects of this play: regardless of what the blocking scheme was, Taylor Lewan gets absolutely blown off the line of scrimmage.

I don't pretend to be an expert at offensive line schemes, but this seems untenable. I've watched this play upwards of 20 times and can't figure out what this line is doing. It's entirely possible that absolutely everyone gets beaten off the ball, but there just seems to be too much confusion for that to be the real cause. Mealer can't reach the playside defensive tackle, that much is clear. But what is Barnum's assignment? What is Omameh's assignment? Why is Schoefield the only one chop blocking? Side note: Why is he so bad at it? For all of the work that this staff has done with both sides of the ball, I can't understand why the offensive line looks so ill-prepared and confused.

A forgotten classic

#24 Northwestern 31 - Michigan 38 (OT)

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Saturday's game will never go down as a classic. My freshman year of college, we had Braylon-fest, an improbable comeback against Michigan State. A few years later, Tate Forcier saw cover-zero and scampered 40 yards into the endzone before finding Greg Matthews on a circle route with 11 seconds left. The next two years, Denard Robinson broke Irish hearts in gif-able fashion. But these games are legendary as much because of the helmets that didn't have wings on them as the outcomes themselves.

The ending of Saturday's game was more improbable than any of those prior classics, but it will probably go forgotten. Beating Northwestern should be a certainty, not a cardiac event. Michigan's chances of playing for a Big Ten title this year are probably dead following yet another fortuitous (and incorrect) officiating call that went Nebraska's way. And this wasn't even a miraculous Denard Robinson performance during his senior season. This was a game that was uncomfortably close and probably ultimately meaningless.

Perhaps if I had been in the stadium, my impressions would change. By the time Michigan got the ball back with 18 seconds left, I was resigned to the team's fate: best case scenario was a long bomb followed by a coinflip field goal to tie the game because, let's be honest, Junior Hemingway ain't walking through that tunnel. But then a miraculous apparition appeared. Number 21 had the ball pinned to his shoulder, setting up the most vicious spiked ball in Michigan history. When overtime started, there was just a sense that Michigan would pull the game out. They had too much momentum, but more concretely, in overtime, always side with the team that has the 6'4" robobeast quarterback.

After Michigan scored in overtime and put the pressure on the Wildcat offense, the ensuing possession went about as well as you can hope for against an option team: 7 yard gain, 2 yard gain, 1 yard loss, 0 yard gain; game. Though Northwestern had been gashing the Wolverine defense on the speed option all day, they opted instead for a veer option. Jibreel Black beat a block, forced a cutback, and Kenny Demens treated Tyris Jones like an excited puppy jumping into its owner's arms after a month-long vacation.

This game was another good audition for Devin Gardner, but it highlighted something that appeared the week before. It seems like Al Borges treats Gardner differently, and not just in playcalling. Gardner gets to the line of scrimmage, surveys the field and calls audibles, and uses a hard count to draw the defense offsides. I refuse to believe that Michigan's three-year starter, senior quarterback can't make the same checks or keep the defense on its toes--it's possible, but seems unlikely--so the question becomes, why does Borges treat the two quarterbacks so differently?

Playing almost exclusively under center helps with a lot of these issues. Hard counts can be used under center more easily, but making checks at the line of scrimmage is something that we've seen Gardner do a few times in the last few weeks that Denard hasn't done once in two years. The other advantage of playing Gardner under center so frequently is getting the play in and lining up faster. With Denard in the game, Borges changes formations from I-formation sets featuring two tight ends and a fullback to shotgun looks with three and four wide receivers. That much rotation of personnel has resulted in a lot of wasted first-quarter timeouts when Denard is in the game. With Gardner playing, the offense just seems more complete, a function of Borges more than the anything the quarterbacks are doing.

Regardless of why the difference exists, it's a very real aspect of this offense now. The offense looks better under Gardner, which unfortunately just highlights how improperly Borges has been using Denard the last two years, but there's no need in fretting over that now. Next year looks a lot more encouraging after the last two weeks and Michigan is still technically in the running for the Big Ten Title this year. Go Minnesota. Go Iowa. Ugh.

Bullets

• Michigan struggled on defense in this game for a number of different reasons. Jake Ryan and Frank Clark both lost contain frequently which gave Northwestern big gains on the ground. In addition, and I think Mattison figured this out before the fourth quarter, but Michigan was defending the speed option in an unsound manner. The playside linebacker was always playing the quarterback, forcing a pitch to the running back who had nothing but blockers in front of him. I think Mattison assumed his corners and safeties could get off of their blocks on the outside the help contain the rushing attack, but Michigan's corners aren't very good at doing this. By the fourth quarter, Michigan started forcing the runs back inside.
• Michigan's third-down defensive struggles where a different matter. Mattison couldn't use his okie blitzes because Northwestern spreads the field too far. Instead, he drew up a strong safety blitz that was largely ineffective. I'll draw these up later this week, but Mattison finally figured out what the problem was: he kept bringing Jordan Kovacs on a safety blitz from Colter's frontside, allowing him to recognize the blitz and scramble around. The one time the blitz actually landed, it was because Mattison flipped the field and brought the blitz from Colter's blindside.
• Kain Colter is slippery. Michigan had him in the backfield a few different times but was unable to bring him down. Will Campbell pushed beyond the line of scrimmage only to see Colter scamper around and one of Michigan's defensive ends dip inside, giving up the edge and a huge rushing lane. This was the least disciplined defensive performance from Michigan we've seen all year, helped along by perhaps the best running quarterback Michigan has played.
• The interior of Michigan's offensive line is broken. At this point, you don't burn redshirts, but Michigan's offensive line may be the weakest unit on the entire team. This is also why Fitz Toussaint is broken. He won't break 100 yards per game once this season.
• I'll have to rewatch the game, but the linebacker rotation confused me. Michigan gave a lot of time to James Ross and Joe Bolden. Then again, Ondre Pipkins saw significant snaps again (and was much improved), so it may be that the defensive staff is willing to rolling the dice during the game more frequently in order to get these younger players some meaningful snaps.
• This was far and away Roy Roundtree's best game as a Wolverine in the last two years, and not just because of his miraculous, game-saving catch. He was getting separation, making shoestring catches, and showed a bit of open-field shiftiness.
• Michigan's secondary is very not good. I really worry about next week's matchup. Despite the fact that Iowa is terrible, they may have a decent pocket passer. Thomas Gordon has looked a stepped behind whoever he's defending for the last few weeks and JT Floyd didn't do much to alleviate fears that he's still too slow to keep up with Big Ten receivers. 
• Devin Funchess is tall, and thank god.

Next Week

Michigan takes on Iowa in a game that will be closer than it should be. Were it not for three Purdue turnovers, Iowa would have been summarily beaten. Purdue managed 490 yards, 8.0 YPA through the air, and 4.8 YPC on the ground. In contrast, Iowa had only 264 total yards, 5.3 YPA, and 2.4 YPC, and yet they only lost by 3 points. Michigan should win, but this game will expose the Wolverine secondary in a way that we haven't seen this season.

Progress Report: The offense

I watched the first half of the Illinois game yesterday and one thing became clear: there wasn't much that happened schematically in the game. Michigan just dominated Illinois at every position. The only new offensive play Al Borges rolled out was the counter-draw that we saw last year, and the defense spent much of the game run blitzing. In lieu of regular content this week, and because the bye week came after only four games, I'm going to spend the week doing progress reports for the offense, defense, and coaching staff. First, the offense.

Quarterbacks

Grade: A-

Going into the season, we all knew what Michigan was getting from its quarterbacks: Denard is Denard, Devin Gardner was moving permanently to wide receiver, and Russell Bellomy was an unproven freshman who would get occasional snaps in garbage time or when Denard got injured. Six games later, that hasn't changed much. To wit:

Entering his third year as a starter and his senior season, if Denard hasn't already learned not to make those throws, he probably never will learn. Count on Denard to average about an interception--to 1.5--per game.

That's the pessimistic angle (the one that makes more sense in my brain) though. The other side of the coin is Denard, Heisman Contender. While I think that's possible, he's going to need to show significant mprovement over last year while playing a more difficult schedule (don't undersell this as a potential explanation for a lack of improvement from Denard). I've never seen a quarterback go from Year 1 to Year 2 under Borges/Hoke, so I'm not really sure what to expect. Early camp reports say Denard is playing extremely well, but camp reports are camp reports. Can Denard surpass his numbers from last year? Yes, but he won't come close to his breakout 2010 season, the kind of numbers he would need really lock down the Heisman.

Realistically, given the lack of wide receiver talent (about which more later this week), Denard's totals will probably remain the same while things like his yards per attempt drop as his deep jump balls increasingly fall to the turn.

For comparison, let's look at Denard's numbers from 2011, six games into 2011, and through the first six games of this season:

	Att/Comp	Comp%	Yards	YPA	TD/INT
2011	142/258	55%	2,173	8.4	20/15
2011 through 6 games	67/117	57.26%	1,130	9.7	10/9
2012	69/126	54.8%	1,101	8.7	9/8

I think it's hard to argue that Denard is anything but Denard. His stats this season are basically identical to his numbers from the same time last year. True, he didn't play Alabama in 2011, but this many similarities are not a coincidence. Despite "Denard Being Denard" being a bad thing occasionally (see: Notre Dame), Michigan is on pace to win its first Big Ten title since 2004 (!), largely because of him; take the good with the bad.

What's most impressive about Denard's passing output is the lack of wide receiver talent. Devin Funchess has emerged as a serious deep threat, and Devin Gardner is an erratic WR-convert, but otherwise, Denard is working with a bunch of slot ninjas in a non-slot ninja-friendly offense. But recently, Al Borges has changed to a quick-hit passing offense that Denard can excel at and better suits the receivers.

Though his passing stats mirror those of last year, Denard's rushing numbers are significantly improved.  He has carried the ball 101 times this season for 804 yards (8.0 YPC) and 6 TDs, a yardage mark that almost matches his total from the entirety of last year (1,176 yards, 5.3 YPC). Denard's improvement can be attributed to Borges' decision to use the inverted veer which appears indefensible.

Going Forward
Expect more of the same. Denard isn't poised to be anything that we haven't seen already. He's going to throw interceptions when he's pressured, break long runs a few times a game, and make some miraculous passes that you were certain Denard couldn't make. At this point, we should just cherish the last few games of Denard's collegiate career because Michigan is not going to see another player like him in Maize and Blue again. Next year is the Shane Morris show and a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy.

When the dust settles

Terrible Illinois 0 - Michigan 45
Preview

Joseph Tobianski | AnnArbor.com

Now that was vintage Michigan football: injure the opposing quarterback and grind an opponent to dust on defense. Illinois is terrible, but beating them that summarily is still fairly astonishing given the relative talent levels on defense. Even when michigan beat Minnesota last year--a squad in contention for the worst Big Ten team of all time--the Gophers still managed 177 total yards, good for 3.76 yards per play. Against Illinois on Saturday, Michigan's defense held the Illini to 134 yards on 2.5 yards per play. The Wolverine secondary allowed Illinois' two quarterbacks to complete only 7 of 16 passes for 29 yards. The last time Michigan's defense beat a D-I opponent that badly was probably the 2007 Notre Dame game in which they allowed the Irish only 79 yards. Defenders on that team: Terrance Taylor, Brandon Graham, Tim Jamison, Morgan Trent, Donovan Warren, Shawn Crable, Stevie Brown, and Jamar Adams, among others.

There's not much else to say about this game. Michigan beat Illinois at every position, all game. The only thing that slowed Michigan's offense was the non-injury to Denard and two drops by Michigan's receivers on passes thrown by Russell Bellomy. If those catches are made, the Denard injury probably won't even stop Michigan's offense. Fitz Toussaint didn't look great, but that's the only negative that can be taken from this game.

Despite much of the Big Ten schedule left to play including games against Nebraska, Michigan State, and Ohio State, it may be time to start considering Michigan as the best team on both sides of the ball in this conference. Though the Buckeyes just beat up on Nebraska and Indiana, they were still only able to manage 17 points against Michigan State--approximately as much as Iowa did against the Spartans. MSU's defense, meanwhile, has allowed 27 points to Indiana and 20 to a probably bad Notre Dame offense. Though I hate this kind of transitive property assumption, the performances in-conference to date point squarely at Michigan being the most well-rounded team.

With the transformation of the defense this year and last, we can be certain these aren't outlier performances. And with a healthy Denard being on the same page as Al Borges, the sky is the limit for the offense. Make no mistake the 2007 Michigan team would still beat 2012 Michigan to a pulp, but these past two years have been two huge steps to getting this program back to where it's supposed to be. Injured quarterbacks for all!

Bullets

• So maybe it's time to start panicking about Toussaint. Despite having blockers in front of him all game, he kept trying to break a run to the outside rather than taking the yards he was given and keeping Michigan ahead of the chains. I don't know why he's been so impatient this season--perhaps he's just stir crazy from early in the year--but it's becoming a problem. For the game, he managed just 62 yards on 18 carries.
• Denard completed 7 of 11 passes for 159 yards and no interceptions. Excise the 71-yard touchdown pass to Gallon and he throws 6/10 for 88 yards (8.8 YPA). Still good. One of the big changes in the last two games has been a relative dearth of deep shots. This is a good thing and the main reason Denard is playing this well. Dear Al, please continue this trend and don't freak out if Michigan gets behind in a game.
• Three of Michigan's top four tacklers: Jake Ryan (#1), Kenny Demens (#2), and Desmond Morgan (#4). You don't get to a member of the secondary (Kovacs) until eighth on that list, behind James Ross, even. Michigan's front seven is turning into something special.
• Speaking of which, Demens' interception showed the kind of anticipation and development you want to see from senior linebackers.
• Dennis Norfleet terrifies me every time he touches the ball.
• I have a standing rule: if you're a college football team taking field goals longer than 40 yards, you're going to lose that game. This is how Ohio State wins every close game, invariably forcing teams to kick 42-yard field goals (and missing) on 4th and 5. Michigan did this to Illinois in this game. They missed, because obviously they did.

Prediction Tracker
Preview:

Michigan starts scoring early and doesn't look back. Denard doesn't have nearly the rushing totals he did against Purdue, but that's offset by Fitz Toussaint having his best game of the season, finally breaking the 100-yard mark. Denard lights it up through the air though and finishes with two TDs and no interceptions. Defensively, JT Floyd has another strong game but is overshadowed by Jake Ryan who has 3 TFLs. Scheelhaase is pressured early and often and ends up throwing one arm-punt that sets Michigan up for an easy touchdown. Terrible Illinois 13 - Michigan 49

Michigan scored on their first two possessions and were basically only stopped because Denard got injured. Denard's rushing numbers weren't as high as they could have been because Michigan didn't need them to be. The same goes for his passing numbers: no need to throw the ball when everyone on Michigan's roster can find a running lane. Fitz: sadface. Jake Ryan had 3.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. Scheelhaase threw one INT but would have thrown more had Jibreel Black not broken his brain.

Next Week
Michigan State. Winning next week would go a long way to locking up the Legends division crown. It would all but knock MSU out of the running, leaving Iowa (2-0), Northwestern (2-1), and Nebraska (1-1) the only teams able to challenge for the title. I called this a 60/40 win for Michigan before the season and haven't seen anything to change that impression: Le'veon Bell is not terrifying despite what people will have you believe, Andrew Maxwell is incredibly raw, and the defense, as mentioned above, has now allowed 27 to Indiana, 20 to Notre Dame, and 19 to Iowa. It will be closer than you'd like, but Michigan should win comfortably.

Naked bootlegs: Not working, but not for the reasons you think

Last year, Michigan ran a lot of naked bootlegs with Denard that didn't work because defenders are way more worried about Denard rolling out than any of Michigan's running backs. Case in point:

Notre Dame was similarly not surprised by the play and Denard did the Denard thing and threw a ball off his back foot that was eventually intercepted. I'm not convinced that this is a bad play call by Borges, however (about which more later).

Michigan comes out in an I-formation with Devin Funchess lined up as an H-back. Notre Dame is in a 4-3 look.

Devin Funchess motions across the formation.

As the ball is snapped, Notre Dame's defensive end Stephon Tuitt and the weakside linebacker are left unblocked. You'll see that neither of them cares about the potential hand off.

Tuitt continues to stare down Denard and isn't flowing down the line to make a tackle on a potential handoff.

Tuitt has seen Denard pull the ball and knows to head straight upfield. However, look at Gallon (highlighted; explanation below).

Tuitt is now bearing down on Denard.

Denard shuffles his feet to make a throw....

...and heaves the ball without stepping into it.

Video

The Takeaway
This play is not as bad as the interwebs will have you believe. The defensive end doesn't bite on the play action, but look at the strongside and middle linebackers in the video: both of them step toward the play action and are taken out of their coverage zones. Jeremy Gallon (the intended receiver) is wide open on this play because the linebackers bite on the play action. Are there better ways to pick up 12 yards with Denard? Probably, but this is Al Borges' offense.

The thing people seem unwilling to talk about: QBs get hit a lot when they're throwing the ball. Stepping into your throws and taking those hits is what great good QBs do. When Denard gets pressure, he goes into self-defense mode instead of standing in the pocket, delivering the ball, and taking the hit. Getting hit sucks, but that's what it takes to be a quarterback.

It doesn't help that there's a second defender in Denard's face because Michael Schofield once again gets beaten off the line. I understand the tendency to blame Borges for calling this play, but Denard is a senior quarterback that still hasn't figured out how to throw the ball away or refuses to stand tall in the pocket. Quarterbacks get pressure in their face; many of them make the right decision, but Denard never does. With an offensive line that's clearly not up to par right now, Denard is going to see more pressure as the season wears on. His ability to throw the ball away and recognize when a play is dead--or take the hit--will be crucial to this team winning games against more talented opponents.

Preview: Notre Dame 2012

---

#18 Michigan vs. #11 Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium

Kickoff 7:30 pm EST

NBC

Forecast: High-50s, 50% chance of rain

---

Last week
#20 Notre Dame 20 - #10 Michigan State 3. Last week, Notre Dame proved what I've been telling people since the season began: Michigan State ain't that good. Le'Veon Bell averaged 4.1 YPC on 19 totes, which is actually a pretty good turnout for him (minus the one or two 60-yard runs he's been breaking off against weak competition). And Andrew Maxwell earned himself the Captain Checkdown Of The Week award with 187 yards on 23/45 passing (4.2 YPA). Though, MSU's shoddy offensive line did no Spartans any favors.

Notre Dame, played well, but their greatest achievement was getting everyone who votes in the polls to overrate them again. QB Everett Golson had a fairly lackluster day (14/32, 178 yards, 1TD). Bowling ball Cierre Wood--fresh off his two-game suspension--acquitted himself well with 56 yards on 10 carries. But this game was a defensive struggle: only 537 yards of combined total offense, a combined 6-31 on third down, and 16 punts.

UMass 13 - #17 Michigan 63.

Offense vs. Notre Dame
Fi Fie Fo Film

Denard's career stats versus Notre Dame: 35/64 through the air for 582 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, and 48 carries for 387 yards (3 TDs). Though Michigan fans all have fond memories of Denard taking on the Irish, in a dozen alternate universes, people have a much different sentiment regarding the lace-less one and the Domers. This has not escaped Hoke and the rest of the coaching staff who have mentioned a few times this week that last year's game didn't go as planned until the final quarter of the game.

The name everyone remembers on Notre Dame's defense is linebacker Manti Te'o. His superstar has only been diminished by a fairly lackluster group surrounding him to date. Otherwise, Te'o has lived up to all the hype. Running through the middle of the field against Notre Dame is a harrowing affair with Te'o roaming around. Whether or not he'll be able to make the shoestring tackles that Nebraska's Levonte David did against Denard last year will go a long way to determining how this game plays out.

The other problem running the ball against Notre Dame is its intimidating defensive line, led by nose tackle Louis Nix III. The Fighting Irish have had three games against mediocre-to-good rushing teams (Navy, Purdue, MSU) and still rank 23rd in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed per game.

The weakness in Notre Dame's defense is a secondary that looks like Michigan's in 2010. To date, ND has lost safety Jamorris Slaughter, safety Austin Collinsworth, and starting cornerback Lo Wood to season-ending injuries. Despite these injuries, Notre Dame's passing rank is still high: 38th nationally in passing yards allowed per game and and 26th nationally in pass efficiency defense. However, the Fighting Irish have played Navy (an option team that never throws the ball), Captain Checkdown, and Purdue. They haven't really been tested this season.

The matchups to watch will be whether or not Te'o can adequately cover Devin Funchess on seam and wheel routes downfield and whether or not anyone in the ND secondary can cover Devin Gardner. The other potential turning point--and Michigan fans are used to watching for things like this already--will be whether or not an inexperienced secondary can maintain proper outside leverage and not let Denard/Fitz Toussaint get to the edge. With Borges utilizing bubble screens this year, testing young safeties in open space may be a way to gain easy yardage throughout the game.

Defense vs. Notre Dame

On paper, Notre Dame's offense is not very intimidating: 67th in rushing offense, 67th in passing offense, 74th at pass efficiency, and 61st in scoring offense. However, they also have Cierre Wood (pictured above). Last year, Wood racked up 134 yards on just 25 carries (5.4 YPC) against Michigan, and that was with NFL talents like Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen manning the defensive line. Now? Yeesh. Wood is fast and tough to bring down, and with a suspect defensive line and young/mediocre linebackers, this game will show just how good (or bad, as the case may be) Michigan's defense will be this year.

The passing defense is less harrowing. Sophomore quarterback Everett Golson is completing 58% of his passes this season, and has only 3 touchdown passes (1 INT). Michigan's secondary is equipped to defend whatever Golson can bring. Expect Greg Mattison to send a lot of blitzes his way to try and hurry the young quarterback into bad throws. When plays do break down, Golson has some scrambling ability, but not enough to really scare the Michigan defense. He'll probably pick up a few frustrating first downs on third and long, but if Michigan can limit those conversions, they should be able to make the Irish offense stall out.

The team's leading receiver is senior tight end Tyler Eifert, who will present some problems for Michigan. Guarding him will come down to Jordan Kovacs or various linebackers staying disciplined on play action and adequately covering him downfield. Otherwise, Notre Dame doesn't have many truly threatening wide receivers, the first time in what seems like a decade.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Defy previous performances. Michigan performances to date are not going to win this game. The defensive line needs to significantly outperform their turnout to date. It's not necessary to get a ton of pass rush from the interior (not going to happen anyway) or tear through the offensive line for tackles for loss, but they need to hold up against Notre Dame's talented offensive line and allow the linebackers adequate time to hit the proper holes and make tackles. Speaking of tackles, the Wolverine defenders need to do a better job of wrapping up the ball carrier.

Offensively, Denard needs to play like 2011 Notre Dame 4th Quarter Denard for the entire game. Luckily Denard probably has the most-complete set of offensive weapons that he's ever had. Funchess and Gardner are players that will need to beat up a bruised Notre Dame secondary. If the offensive line can hold up on running plays, that will open up the passing game for Denard and his receivers.

How does Notre Dame win? If all of this season's evidence is more prescient than Michigan fans hope. Notre Dame should win this game: it's at home, their resume is far superior to Michigan's, and they have more pure talent on both sides of the ball (probably; offense is a toss-up). The Fighting Irish can help themselves by forcing multiple turnovers from Denard, and if they're able to annihilate the Michigan offensive line the way the rest of their opponents have, it's going to be a long day for the Michigan offense.

Arbitrary percentage that Michigan wins: 43.79%

Final prediction. It's a close game, but Michigan's weaknesses in the first three weeks prove to be very real. The defensive line can't stop Wood from averaging over 5 yards per carry and the offensive line gets hammered by Notre Dame's front seven. Fitz Toussaint has another bad day and we all start panicking about the offensive line again as the offense fails to get in the endzone on multiple red zone trips. Denard has a good day through the air but also throws two interceptions. Michigan 23 - Notre Dame 24

QB Oh Noes: The Return (also, illegal man downfield)

Another fun trick that Al Borges brought back from the Rodriguez regime is the ever-deadly QB Oh Noes. Denard and Roy Roundtree rode this play to become one of the most dynamic QB-WR duos in the Big Ten in 2010. Once this was excised from the playbook, Roundtree's numbers fell off a cliff. So did Denard's, for what it's worth.

It's the first drive of the game and Michigan coems out in a two-TE set with two receivers split out to Denard's left. Fitz Toussaint is lined up in the backfield next to Denard.

As the ball is snapped, Michigan's two receivers as well as Devin Funchess (TE on the top of the screen) release. Denard immediately looks out to the nickelback lined up over Michigan's slot receiver. Toussaint will come across Denard's face for a handoff.

At this point, Denard sees what he wants: UMass' secondary hasn't moved and more importantly, the linebackers are staring into the backfield and ignoring Devin Funchess (arrow) who has a clear lane through the center of the field.

Denard is pulling back to throw to Funchess who is wide open. There's only one problem: Patrick Omameh (highlighted) who is an ineligible receiver, is already two yards beyond the line of scrimmage. This, as you might already know, is a penalty.

As Denard lets go of the ball, Omameh is already four yards downfield run blocking. This is still illegal.

Ball in the air, Omameh blocking downfield...

...touchdown. No flags. Wheeee.

Video

The Takeaway
This is super illegal. Michigan should have been flagged and the touchdown should have been taken away. If the UMass linebackers were keying on Michigan's guards for run/pass clues, having one of the guards release 5 yards downfield on the snap is a pretty clear sign that this is a running play. Look at the offensive line on the first QB Oh Noes of 2010:

The line of scrimmage here is the 31 yard line. The furthest any of Michigan's linemen get upfield before the throw is the 30 yard line. That's a tough call for the refs to make. Omameh scampering downfield is not.

The positive sign from this play, however, is that Borges appears to be learning how to use the threat of Denard's legs as a way to set up easy completions. The one tweak here is the use of Devin Funchess to catch the seam route rather than a slot receiver. One of the concerns with this personnel is that if Funchess can't develop into a reliable run-blocker, defenses will start keying in on him as a receiver and disregard the play action. But that's a worry for another time. Right now, Funchess is a problem for just about every defense and it's nice to see Borges utilizing his skillset.

"It's always good to win"

Air Force 25 - #19 Michigan 31
Preview

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Were you to look only at the box score, Michigan's offense against Air Force appeared more like a 2010 Rich Rodriguez-led team: Denard accounted for all but 7 of the team's total yards (208 through the air and 218 on the ground) and chalked up four touchdowns. But this is not the high-powered option offense that turned Denard into a Heisman contender. In fact, there might be serious problems with this edition of the offense.

Denard didn't dominate this game because he was Michigan's best option, as in previous years. Denard dominated this game because he was the only option. Not knowing the intricacies of offensive line play, it seems that the loss of David Molk has had a far more catastrophic effect on the offensive line than anticipated. Though that can't explain Taylor Lewan or Michael Schofield getting outright beaten off the line of scrimmage, it's clear that something is not right. After being unable to run the ball against Alabama, Michigan fans maintained hope: Bama is a defensive force with a stifling run defense. But after looking incapable of moving the ball against Air Force's porous run defense, it's time to start looking a little more closely at what's going on.

Without rewatching the game, the best I can offer is what everyone else can see. The offensive line just can't get any push upfield, which, against Air Force's undersized defensive front is a major red flag. It could be that the line is still trying to gel, but it seemed like Michigan was running power blocking techniques most of the game, which would negate many of the double teams that could cause confusion on the line. Michigan's offensive linemen were going one-on-one with Air Force and losing the battle.

The good news is Denard Robinson specializes in making something out of nothing. He carried the ball 20 times on Saturday, a number he only surpassed five times last season. Denard is always a weapon, but having to use him this extensively against Air Force rehashes concerns about durability. But you do what's necessary to win the game you're currently playing.

Through the air, Denard was slightly improved, bolstered by the emergence of Devin Beanpole Funchess. In Funchess and Devin Gardner, Michigan might actually have a pair of pass-catchers that can threaten teams downfield and in the red zone. We'll see how Funchess fares when teams actually guard him, but this was an impressive coming out party.

A win is a win, but Saturday's game did more to inspire uncertainty than confidence in the offense--at least the defense had an excuse for its mediocre performance. We saw Schofield struggle mightily against Alabama, but no one expected the offensive line to look so shaky against Air Force. Barring better offensive line play going forward, this season will quickly start veering off course.

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Bullets

• So yeah, Funchess. A few of his catches were because Air Force just failed to cover him, but he looks like a serious receiving threat at the tight end position. He'll need to add weight, but that'll come with time. For now, he's the most versatile tight end to the roster.
• Fitz Toussaint struggled today, but that was the fault of the offensive line. There were no running lanes that weren't created from QB draw plays.
• I don't think the defense fared quite as poorly as the box score indicates. Early in the game, the fullback dive was making more yards than expected (this is either because the defensive line was getting pushed off the ball or making the wrong decision on the option; my guess is the latter), but after the half, most of Air Force's yards were on the outside. That happens against option teams. At the end of the day, the Falcons only averaged 4.1 YPC (albeit on 71 carries), which is well below their average.
• The Dennis Norfleet hype train will continue, but mark my words: he is going to make a catastrophic error on a kick return this year.
• I don't really have much insight on this game yet. I need to rewatch it and see exactly what the struggles were on defense and why the offensive line couldn't get any push.

Next Week
Alright, so let's try this again. Michigan takes on UMass next week and should finally be able to really dominate an opponent. The Wolverines have two weeks to prepare for their next real test in Notre Dame. UMass shouldn't present any problems for the offense or defense, so the game needs to be used to iron out run-fit issues and sort out the problems on the offensive line.