Denard's INTs versus San Diego State

Yesterday, we saw Denard locking onto receivers when he gets man coverage on the outside without safety help over the top. This resulted in an incomplete jump ball to Roy Roundtree that could have just as easily been intercepted. In an effort to find something (anything) to write about in the most dull game of the last three years, I noticed that both of Denard's interceptions in the game were the result of him locking onto receivers.

Michigan is in a three-wide set with two RBs flanking Denard. Jeremy Jackson is in the slot and Drew Dileo is the outside receiver on the strongside of the field. San Diego State is in a 3-4 defensive formation.

On the snap, Denard rolls out left. Jackson is running a 10-yard hitch route. Dileo will run a circle route to the outside (YMRMFSPA: Forcier to Matthews to beat Notre Dame in 2009). SDSU rushes four and is in zone coverage but will jam the outside receivers.

As Denard rolls out, Dileo plants his foot to break to the sideline. Jackson will continue upfield.

At this point, the SDSU corner covering Dileo is reading Denard's eyes and starting to sink downfield on the hitch route. Dileo is breaking to the outside and will be wide open in a minute.

When Denard finally squares his shoulders to throw, the SDSU corner is completely abandoning his assignment because Denard is staring down Jackson downfield. Dileo is breaking open to the sideline as the corner's momentum carries him downfield.

As Denard lets go of the ball, Dileo is wide open and the SDSU corner is dropping to make the interception.

In this scenario, Denard needs to recognize the coverage and see the corner sinking off of Dileo who is wide open. He has time in the pocket to throw and no one in front of the underneath route. It's likely that Denard saw Jackson run unabated through the underneath zones and stared him down, allowing the corner to read the route and make the interception.

His second pick wasn't exactly the same, but it does show Denard failing to see the whole field.

Denard locking onto receivers

Ed. note: It's going to be a relatively slow week on the site this week. I have family in town and this game was never in doubt. Chances are there will only be one post a day this week. Some might come later than usual.

A lot has been made of Denard's regression in the passing game this year without many answers. His accuracy has always been a problem, but more disturbingly, Denard makes poor decisions, often throwing deep into double coverage. Jump balls have become a staple of the offense but they haven't been a particularly reliable option. One jump ball that Denard threw against San Diego State illustrates why his passing numbers may be so poor this season.

It's midway through the first quarter and Michigan just forced the first of Ronnie Hillman's fumbles. The offense comes out in a shotgun, three-wide, two-back set. The defense is in a 3-4 front wth man coverage.

On the snap, the defense rushes five with a stunt on the defensive line. Denard has man coverage on all the receivers with one "deep" safety (who is only six yards from the line of scrimmage).

A moment later, Denard has locked onto Roy Roundtree on the outside. My impression is that the coaches told Denard to take shots down the field. He was likely told that whenever he has one-on-one man coverage on the outside without safety help, that he should throw it up to that receiver. Here, Roundtree has single coverage on a fly route. On the other side of the field, Drew Dileo and Junior Hemingway are bother going to run hitch routes; Denard will never see these.

Hemingway and Dileo are breaking off their routes. The closest defender to either of them is five yards away. Roundtree, meanwhile, was jammed at the line of scrimmage and being pushed to the outside. Denard is about to throw to Roundtree who still hasn't beaten his defender.

As Denard lets the ball go, Roundtree is still below his defender. In addition, SDSU's safety is breaking on the pass, though he's too far from Roundtree to be a factor. Dileo and Hemingway are wide open.

This is a fundamental difference between Al Borges' and Rich Rodriguez's offense. In Rodriguez's option offense, the focus was always to pick up yards and stay ahead of the down and distance. Any time they did take a shot downfield, it was the QB Oh Noes that were wide open. In this pro style offense, the coaching staff expects Michigan's players to simply out perform the defense, rather than keeping them guessing with simple routes and reads that would produce 5-6 yard gains and possible yards after catch*.

There's nothing wrong with this style of offense if you have the players to do it (the Chad Hennes and Braylon Edwards of the world). Michigan. however, is loaded with players that aren't necessarily able to out perform their counterparts, rather, they're able to make something out of nothing. Denard needs to recognize the cushion that the weakside defenders are giving Dileo and Hemingway and pass on the single coverage against Roundtree, who isn't much of a leaper.

I'd have to go back and look at the other ill-advised jump balls that Denard has thrown this season, but this seems like it's probably indicative of the problem: Denard making up his mind before the ball is snapped and throwing even when his receiver can't get free. It'll be crucial for Denard to be more judicious in these situations if the team is going to sustain drives and if Denard is going to keep his numbers up.

*It would be difficult to track, but I would bet that a significantly higher percentage of Denard's passing yards last year came after the catch. This season, when he completes passes, they seem to be further downfield. This probably also explains his lower completion percentage.

SDSU 2011: Where Denard can run

San Diego State 7 - #22 Michigan 28

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

My family and friends have always made fun of me because, in their words, "You won't do anything until your brother does it first." For proof, see: boot cut jeans, Sigur Ros, shoulder strap backpacks, being born. To an extent, they're right. I am notoriously hard-headed and set in my ways. If something isn't an immediate upgrade (and sometimes, even when it is but if I'm in a particularly ornery mood), I shun suggestions in favor of the status quo.

Before Michigan's season opener against Western Michigan, Al Borges said that the first play from scrimmage would probably be a power run. It was a carry by Denard Robinson. Against lowly Eastern Michigan, Denard ran the ball 26 times, despite the coaching staff's insistence that he carry the ball less this year. Against San Diego State, Denard carried the ball 21 times. What was clear to everyone else prior to the season is now clear to Borges: Denard Robinson is an immediate and noticeable upgrade over any other option on the Michigan offense.

The use of Denard in the running game is necessitated, however, by his total inability to throw in this system. Whether its early-season jitters, a lack of confidence in his reads, or a clearer display of the inaccuracy he showed last year, through four games, Denard's struggles in Borges passing system are no fluke. Robinson followed up a 7/18, 2 TD, 1 INT game against EMU with a 8/17, 93 yard, 2 INT game against a San Diego State defense that was 72nd in defensive pass efficiency heading into Saturday's matchup.

But as the score indicated, all was not gloomy in Ann Arbor. The defense was able to stuff an offense that had averaged 38 points per game (albeit against mediocre competition). They held SDSU star back Ronnie Hillman nominally in check (5.2 YPC on 21 carries; he was averaging 6.5 YPC coming into Saturday's matchup). And uninspiring senior Ryan Lindley completed less than half of his passes for a pedestrian 5.3 YPA. He was plagued by drops, but for the most part, Michigan covered well, got pressure, and once again looked like a competent defense, which for the next 3 years will be the greatest compliment levied toward this unit.

Bullets

• Blake Countess can cover. After Troy Woolfolk got injured for the 27th time this season, Countess came into the game over Courtney Avery who struggled in pass coverage. San Diego State tested Countess by throwing at him as much as possible. For the most part, he held up and showed not only good coverage skills but solid tackling fundamentals. I would not be surprised if Countess rockets up the depth chart and even finds himself in the starting rotation soon.
• For the second week in a row, Michigan didn't bring many blitzes. Greg Mattison either felt the team was performing well in their base defense or didn't want to show new blitz packages, but what was a heavy blitzing defense in the first two games has been relatively subdued in the last two games, especially once the score was no longer in doubt.
• Vincent Smith had his two best runs of his Michigan career in this game. On the one, he sneaked through a hole in the offensive line that didn't exist and ran for 32 yards. The second was his scatbacking for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. This is the performance that excited Michigan fans during Smith's freshman year.
• Stephen Hopkins has officially fumbled his way out of the running back rotation. He should get little to no carries for the rest of the year because doesn't give the team anything they can't get anywhere else and isn't reliable enough holding onto the football.
• Am I the only one that's worried about the coaching staff calling Denard's number on every third and short? If the idea is to keep Denard healthy, always running him between the tackles on third and short is the best way to get him injured. He's running directly into swarms of linebackers that are taking shots at him. Eventually, this will take Denard out of a game.
• I'll have to rewatch the game, but Will Campbell appeared to have a decent game. Caveats about the size of SDSU's offensive line aside, any progress from Campbell is a positive.
• Brendan Gibbons, to no one's surprise, missed another field goal. That Matt Wile didn't attempt that kick is discouraging, though I expect the coaches will give him a shot in the coming games. Gibbons is simply not a functional field goal kicker.

Next week
On Saturday, the atrocious Minnesota Gophers, who are 1-3 with losses to North Dakota State and New Mexico State, come to Ann Arbor. This is the lockiest lock of the Big Ten season. Michigan should trounce these guys.

Preview: 2011 San Diego State

San Diego State (3-0) vs. Michigan (3-0) The Big House, Ann Arbor, Michigan Kickoff 12 pm EST Big Ten Network Forecast: Low 60s, chance of rain

Last week
SDSU 42 - Washington St. 24. Last week, the Aztecs took on Washington State and were able to hold a fairly prolific passing attack nominally in check on their way to a not-so-lopsided victory. Washington St. averaged 386 passing yards per game headed into the SDSU game, where senior QB Marshall Lobbestael threw for 368. What killed the Cougars were turnovers, of which they had four (including two interceptions by Lobbestael and three total turnovers in the fourth quarter). But SDSU also allowed touchdowns of 80 and 78 yards.

The Aztecs won the game on the strength of their rushing attack. Ronnie Hillman averaged 6.0 YPC on 32 (!) carries, tacking on four touchdowns. Before the Washington St game, Hillman was averaging a ridiculous 6.8 YPC, albeit against Army and Cal Poly. Regardless, Hillman is the workhorse and if Michigan's linebackers can't get their gap responsibilities in check, he could have another big game.

SDSU's senior quarterback Ryan Lindley has had an uninspiring year given preseason expectations. He's currently completing just 53.7% of his passes and his yards per attempt have dropped from 9.1 last year to 7.59 this year. He can't be totally to blame, though. The SDSU receiver corps has been decimated by injuries. Against Washington St., Lindley went 21/37 for 273 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 Int. In other words, despite lofty expectations, Lindley doesn't look like he can harm Michigan too much on the strength of his arm alone.

Eastern Michigan 3 - Michigan 31. Game recap. You know what happened: Michigan played EMU and beat them like Michigan playing a lower-level MAC team should, on paper at least. If you watched the game, Michigan struggled a little bit. The offense had trouble finding its rhythm, the defense looked porous against the run, and the receivers had their worst day of the year. Denard's struggles have been well documented around here, so his performance wasn't much of a surprise. It was disappointing, however.

The defense is still a work in progress and had a few flaws here and there against EMU. They did, however, play the most vanilla schemes we've seen from Greg Mattison to date. Their lack of blitzing against EMU and insistance on playing basic schemes allowed Ron English and Co. to carve up the defense with jet sweeps and unbalanced lines.

As the game wore on, Michigan proved their dominance, however, and all was right in the world.

Offense vs. San Diego State
It's become obvious to everyone--including Al Borges if Denard's 26 carries against EMU are to be believed--that this offense works best out of the shotgun. Given the team's documented struggles running under center and Denard's difficulty in the passing game, Michigan will likely play most of this game from the shotgun. After last week, Vincent Smith has taken over the nominal starting RB role, though you should expect to see plenty of Fitz Toussaint et al on the field.

SDSU defensive coordinator Rocky Long runs the oft-discussed, rarely seen 3-3-5 (a real 3-3-5, not that hybrid Greg Robinson was running last year). The 3-3-5 is an aggressive, blitzing defense that uses pressure and confusion to cause turnovers and force negative plays. SDSU has ridden that defense to six fumble recoveries (3rd in the country) and two interceptions. HOWEVA, the Aztecs are currently 98th in rushing yards per game (197, though they allow only 3.91 YPA) and 72nd in defensive pass efficiency, which is not great. The Aztecs are allowing 8.86 yards per passing attempt. If you want to know how bad that is, it's a full half yard more per attempt than Michigan allowed last year (8.32). This is, without a doubt, a high risk, high reward kind of defense, which places the impetus squarely on the shoulders of....

Denard Robinson. Denard has to be better if Michigan wants to win this game. SDSU is capable of capitalizing on offensive mistakes, and Denard is prone to making those. While the SDSU defense appears to be somewhat Swiss cheesy, they're likely to throw some zone blitzes at Denard that he hasn't seen yet this year. Eastern Michigan did that once on a Michigan screen pass and Denard smartly pulled the ball down and scrambled for a handful of yards. Making smart decisions like that will be key.

Expect a lot of boom or bust on Saturday. Drives will either gain momentum as Michigan exploits SDSU's aggressiveness, or the Aztecs force a few negative plays and put Michigan behind the chains. A 50% success rate on drives should be enough to get Michigan the win.

Defense vs. San Diego State
This is where things could get hairy. Though unimpressive to date, QB Ryan Lindley could create serious havoc on a still untested secondary. He doesn't have the weapons of Notre Dame, but if he gets on a roll, Michigan could find themselves in a shootout. More likely, SDSU will use the run to set up the pass with Ronnie Hillman. Hillman scares me in this game. Given his prolific numbers to date and Michigan's, well, less than stellar run defense, he could have another big game. A lot of this game is going to fall on the shoulders of the defensive ends and linebackers keeping contain and staying disciplined (Lord help us). Mike Martin and whatever other large-ish body the coaching staff puts next to him should be able to hold up against a relatively slight offensive line.

As for schematically, Michigan will return to their blitzing ways. Mattison very clearly didn't want to blitz against EMU, and that's probably for the best. The team still has a lot of the fundamentals to perfect, and not showing too many blitz packages against Lock of the Year wins is best. This will be a chess match though. SDSU is no doubt aware of Mattison's tendencies and will attempt to counter with screens and draws to Hillman. If Michigan forgets their gap assignments or becomes too aggressive, that will mean big plays for the Aztecs.

On the other side of the coin, Michigan's pressure should complicate things for an underachieving Lindley. Despite having a 7/1 TD/INT ratio this season, Michigan's pressure should be able to add a few notches to the negative. If the front four or linebackers are consistently getting to Lindley, that will mean good things for the defense. Given SDSU's relative lack of playmakers at the receiver position, Mattison should feel confident leaving the corners on and island and bringing heat.

Prediction
Michigan is going to be in for a fight on this one. Hoke did a good job turning this SDSU program into a respectable unit. The Aztecs will have some tricks up their sleeves and will counter some of Borges' offensive staples (though not all as Denard adds a new layer of deviousness). But Hoke has insight into the Aztecs schemes as well. I expect a lot of swing plays in this game. There will be a couple of 50+ yard plays as well as a few turnovers from both teams. Whichever team is able to more consistently capitalize or create these swing plays will come away victorious.

To win, Michigan will need to hold down Hillman, but not at the expense of Lindley's success. The front four will have an up and down day, but the team will hold Hillman well below his season average of 6.5 YPC. Lindley will have a mediocre game, turning the ball over twice, once in Michigan territory. Michigan's offense will be similarly hit-or-miss. Denard throws at least one more pick and finishes the day with a 1/1 TD/INT ratio for the game. In the end, it'll come down to who came make a few more stops.

Michigan 28-27