Beilein's Time

Note: This post has needed a direction for about a week, and the Syracuse win finally afforded it that.

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Michigan fans know well the horrors of single-elimination postseason tournaments. The various heartbreaking hockey losses make these most explicit, but even the ups and downs of recent NCAA basketball tournaments have provided their fair share of disappointment. In the end though, those losses offer the denouement of the season's story and usually a fitting end that had been building until the final buzzer. Shawn Hunwick could only hold back the flood waters for so long without support before the team crumbled. 2011's NCAA heartbreaker against Duke showed that, though Michigan's basketball team wasn't at the mountaintop yet, it was on its way with a firm foothold.

I've never been good with historical context, so what happens when your team just keeps winning? The Fab Five comparison is embarrassingly easy to the point of being fiction--even Jalen Rose is calling for the end of this comparison now. The Fab Five won largely on talent alone: that many players with that much talent will win no matter what. Coaching becomes secondary in 90% of your games and only becomes important in those crucial moments when the heat is really on, say, when you're down two points in the NCAA championship game and you don't have any timeouts left. John Beilein remains widely heralded by his contemporaries as one of the best coaches in college basketball. His teams frequently exceed expectations, both during the season and in the NCAA tournament. Steve Fisher believes his team was just beaten by Florida State.

On a seven-point Likert scale, most readers would list my pessimism about this Michigan team well on the higher end. I've criticized the team's athleticism, Trey Burke, and Nik Stauskas, but the one thing I've maintained complete faith in this season is John Beilein. A few years ago, I complained that Beilein wasn't able to bring in the athletes that would allow Michigan to compete on a national level because at the time, Laval Lucas-Perry was Michigan's idea of a savior. Things were not going well. A few years later, Beilein is surrounding by his players and being crowned with a recently cut-down net before sheepishly taking it off and bestowing the honor to Tim Hardaway Jr.

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Syracuse has been smothering teams during this tournament and it was up to John Beilein to figure out how to get Michigan quality looks on offense. Though it started defensively--rebounding the ball and getting buckets in transition--it became quickly clear that Beilein had a few offensive sets that were designed to beat the 2-3 zone. The most impactful was a 1-4 offensive set with the ball at the top of the key and four Michigan players lined up in the middle of the Syracuse zone.

Though not a great screenshot of exactly how this offense was working, it displays how Michigan was able to dominate Syracuse's zone. Trey Burke enters the ball into the high post for Mitch McGary. When that happens, the two wings players sink to the corners and the other high post player (GR3) dives to the basket.

The defender in the middle of the 2-3 zone has to stay high on McGary, forcing the back to defenders to guard three Michigan players: two corner three point shooters or a layup inside. It's football's smash concept run against a 2-3 zone, and one of the more spectacular schematic deployments I've seen in basketball recently (I might be biased). How else do you think Mitch McGary led the team with 6 assists? How did he get those wide open elbow jumpers (if the middle defender in the zone sinks with the inside dive, McGary was wide open)? How do you think Caris Levert got wide-open corner threes when Syracuse has the ability to close out like this?

Michigan ran this set over and over again in the first half and there was nothing Syracuse could do to stop it. The Orange had a scheme and stuck to it. Beilein had adjustments that broke Syracuse's only solution.


Michigan now goes up against a storyline in Kevin Ware and Louisville, but this feels like John Beilein's time. He embarrassed the "Havoc" defense and solved Syracuse's dominant 2-3 zone. And late in games, when lesser coaches would be wont to stick with their hot hand in Mitch McGary, twice now, Beilein has gone offense-for-defense allowing Jordan Morgan to make defensive plays to help seal Michigan wins.

Louisville's defense presents one final challenge for Beilein: breaking a trap, something that Michigan has done successfully all year under the guiding hand of Trey Burke. Beilein will be there to right the ship if things go awry, but against Louisville, he'll act more like the terrified parent giving the car keys to his recently licensed 16-year-old: I've given you the tools and the preparation not to steer this into a ditch; do me proud.

Regardless of storylines, Louisville and Michigan present an interesting matchup, but at this point, can anyone bet against John Beilein?

Coaching your way to victory

I've been as critical--if not more so--of the Michigan basketball team as anyone in the M blogosphere. I've written about this before, but my philosophy about basketball aligns pretty closely with that of the now defunct FreeDarko.com. One of the primary reasons for this tendency is because before approximately 2002, my interest in basketball could be pretty easily summarized: none. FreeDarko became a formative basketball tome for me, which means I favor highly athletic, fast, improvisational basketball, the likes of which John Beilein comprehensively squashes.

There's been enough statistical analysis to support my favored brand of hoops, at least insofar as talent is concerned. In basketball, more than in any other sport, sheer talent level trumps just about everything. Sleepers, the likes of which you find a lot in football, don't really exist in any sustainable quantity in basketball. In fact, once you get to a pro level, they're basically non-existant (though Jeremy Lin is doing his best to disprove this idea). As such, the construction of the current Wolverine basketball squad is not really my style: a bunch of under the radar shooters that, frankly, are living up to their diminutive recruiting hype, and a few players with clear potential (Hardaway, Burke, Morris previously, etc).

Beilein, however, is a mastermind. As most Michigan fans will tell you, Beilein is often cited as one of the best, if not the best, coach in college basketball. What he's been able to craft out of the motley collection of players Michigan runs out on any given night is nothing short of brilliance. Given the injuries that have plagued the team's depth for the last four years and the early defections of Manny Harris and Darius Morris, to be challenging for a Big Ten title this late in this season is a level of coaching that few of Beilein's contemporaries could even imagine.

On Saturday, Michigan played a team that is objectively better than them at just about every position. And they've done that on a few occasions this season. Michigan is routinely outsized, out muscled, and out skilled. But somehow, the team keeps winning. This isn't a Tebow situation either, where the team is outplayed the whole game only to pull it out at the end. Michigan never trailed against Ohio State, one of the country's best teams, and a team that is, with Jared Sullinger, uniquely equipped to punish Michigan's greatest weakness.

At one point during the second half, Sullinger went on a dominating streak of easy buckets in the paint. The Buckeyes ran down the floor, Sullinger got position on the block, and after an easy entry pass, Sullinger would quickly and easily finish at the basket. I Tweeted at the time that Michigan should change their defensive front to a zone defense in order to limit Sullinger's touches inside and force the Buckeyes to shoot more three pointers, the likes of which they struggled to hit the whole game. Beilein called a timeout with 8:46 left in the game and subsequently came out of the huddle in man defense again. I was displeased, but from that point on, Sullinger made only two free throws (earned after an offensive rebound) and a layup. He didn't even attempt another shot until the frantic final seconds of the game.

Beilein nullified arguably the best player in the country during the final stretch of a tight game by.... I don't know, working on his players' footwork? Obviously the team didn't sell out on Sullinger, opening easier shots for the rest of the Buckeyes. So I don't know what was said, but the entire scenario was sublimely Beilein. With a team in serious foul trouble (Ohio State was in the bonus at the 12-minute mark of the second half) and a group of big men that would struggle to compete with Sullinger in any situation, Beilein stuck to his base defense and coached the team to a win. This is the epitome of a coach putting his team in the position to win.

Bullets

• Those stepback jumpers by Stu Douglass and Zack Novak late in the game were beautiful. Terrifying, then beautiful.
• Trey Burke was the difference in this game. His 5/3 assist/turnover ratio is indicative of why Michigan won this game. He effectively nullified the defense of Aaron Craft by taking care of the ball and not giving the Buckeyes anything easy in transition.
• What a great game for Tim Hardaway Jr. to show up. 13 points on 4/5 shooting? Yes please. However, I could've sworn those back-to-back free throw misses were going to lose Michigan the game. They didn't, of course, and Hardaway turned in probably his best game of the year.
• Jordan Morgan was once again spectacular guarding Sullinger. He was great at fronting Sullinger and denying passes into the post. The one complaint about Morgan's defense in the game was allowing Sullinger to spin into the lane late in the game. Early on, Morgan was overplaying Sullinger to the inside, forcing him to spin baseline where help defense was coming. He stopped doing that during the aforementioned Sullinger run in the second half and I'm not sure why. Might've been a coaching decision.
• Michigan is going to need to run layup lines for the next month. This team missed a lot of easy looks at the basket. That's how you lose basketball games.

To close the season, Michigan needs to win four games in which they'll be favored in order to have a shot at winning a Big Ten regular season title. It would be amazing if the team could get even a share of the title, but more importantly, it's clear that this team is set up to challenge for the title every year. Beilein Uber Alles, amirite?

The Arrival

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

There are some moments that feel bigger than they actually are in the grand scheme of things: your first kiss, getting your first job, acing a particular test. Each has some cultural significance that tells you This Is Important despite the fact that these moments are likely to happen far more frequently in the future than they have in the past. The worst case scenario for most of these is a missed opportunity, but there are some instances that don't necessarily have to happen; when Target rejected my application as a 16 year old, it felt deflating, but chances were that I'd spend most of my life working in some capacity.

When Darius Morris' floater clanged off the rim against Duke to end the Wolverines' season last year, everyone was disappointed. Michigan had missed its opportunity to make a truly profound statement: not only had Beilein begun to turn around a moribund program, but the evolution was complete; Michigan can compete with anyone, on any stage, at any time. Instead it felt like another close loss, the likes of which the team has seemed to suffer on a regular basis over the last three years. Sports are zero sum events--there are no moral victories--so despite Michigan's fate last night hinging on a similar shot that could have just as easily gone the other way, the results are profoundly different.

It's a reach to say that Michigan has a better basketball program than Michigan State now. They don't. Tom Izzo's win total and the Final Four appearances and the recruiting rankings and the championship banners hanging in the Breslin Center are enough proof of that. But Michigan is a better team than Michigan State, which is something that can't be said that frequently in the history (certainly the more recent history) of Michigan basketball.

Most importantly, though, Michigan has finally arrived. When they were ranked #15 in the preseason poll heading into the 2009-2010 season, most fans were skeptical. The team still had noticeable blemishes and the wins that put them on the map the previous year felt more like feel-good stories than the actual emergence of a contender. But with the program's third straight win over their in-state rival--and a team with annual national title aspirations and potential, to boot--the Wolverines have finally fulfilled the promise that they've been inching toward since Beilein set foot in Ann Arbor.

Bullets

• Everyone knew that Michigan was going to lose that game in the second half. And then they didn't. A big thanks goes to Keith Appling who continues to play faster than his mind can process. Credit obviously goes to Michigan's defense as well, about which more in a moment, but Appling, as he did last year, plays too quickly.
• Jordan Morgan, Zack Novak, and Stu Douglass are the reason Michigan won this game. Despite their middling stat lines, these guys all stepped up throughout the game defensively. Down the stretch, I would've liked to see Douglass covering Appling more frequently, but this is a minor complaint. Morgan denied the post, Novak did his grit thing, and Douglass displayed his usual defensive prowess.
  
  Beilein also deserves credit for the defensive performance. He just pushes the right buttons at the right time, mixing in 2-3 and 1-3-1 zone defenses with the team's typical man coverage. He uses the zone sets sparing, but they almost always seem to work when he deploys them.
• Trey Burke: good.
• I think the Hardaway hype train has finally run out of steam. The two charges that he took on defense were momentum shifting plays, but otherwise, Hardaway continued his unimpressive season. And yet it's hard to argue with his season averages (15.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 APG). Hardaway is a utility superstar (think Joe Johnson): not amazing at anything but pretty good at just about everything with an emphasis on scoring. His defense is still a huge problem and he appears to be a malcontent. Hardaway has to be one of the most humdrum stars in the country.
• It still boggles my mind that a team full of three-point specialists can't hit three pointers. I know that everyone's enduring vision of Novak is of him scrapping for rebounds and bleeding from his forehead, but watching him clanging wide open threes off the rim will be my lasting memory of him, fair or not.
• This is a great NCAA Tournament resume piece. One or two more of these (and taking care of business against the Big Ten's lower-ranked teams) and Michigan could be looking at a 5 or 6 seed in the tournament.

Notes from Michigan vs. Indiana

Now that I've finally had a chance to watch a few Michigan hoops games (including actually attending the Bradley game, my first in-person Michigan hoops game since a 2004 throttling at the hands of Michigan State), I feel like I finally have something to say about the team...

• Yesterday's game was not close. I know the scoreboard says Michigan only lost by 2 points, but that game was totally dominated by the Hoosiers. Michigan allowed Indiana to shoot 55% from the field, including 63% from outside (most of which were completely uncontested). The teams had equal rebounds, Indiana had two more assists and five more blocks, and Michigan only held onto the ball slightly better than the Hoosiers (12 and 15 turnovers respectively). Three more made three pointers by the Wolverines and seven missed free throws by Indiana is the only thing that kept this game close.
• The main reason for the loss: athleticism. Michigan got kind of exposed last night. It will surprise no one that Stu Douglass and Zack Novak are less athletic than some of their counter parts (spot up three-point shooters tend to be), but just how much less athletic was put in stark contrast last night. Sure, not every team has someone as electric as Victor Oladipo, but Michigan simply could not keep up with that team last night. They were faster and stronger at basically every position, which resulted in contested shots for the Wolverines, blow bys on the defensive end, and an inability to get open, both on and off the ball (I've never seen back cuts defended so well without giving up anything on the frontside; Indiana is just that much faster).
• This leads me to my next point of contention which I will be widely derided for: Tim Hardaway Jr. is not very fast. He can jump pretty high and has decent straight-line speed, but his first step is devastatingly slow. There's a reason you can barely give him the ball in isolation situations on the offensive end: he can't beat his man off the dribble. Similarly, this lack of quickness is one of the primary reasons that he's such an abhorrent defender. If you didn't believe it before, you should after last night. And on nights when he's going 0/7 from outside, he's as much a detriment to the team as a benefit (19 points on 19 shots from your star player is not a recipe for success).
• Jordan Morgan did a really good job defending Cody Zeller last night, despite his still positive stat line. Morgan denied passes into the post by fronting Zeller all game and was quick enough to get back into position so as not to allow lob passes or anything inside.
• Evan Smotrycz. Damn, kid can shoot. Can't dribble. Can't pass. Loves fouling. But boy can he shoot.
• Enough has been said about Trey Burke to date, and I'm not sure I have much more to offer. He does have one of the softest shots I've ever seen. I'm not really sure why, or whether or not it's less effective because of it, but his shots flutter in a way that I don't think I've ever seen before. Especially from outside, he seems to heave the ball more than shoot it. I expect his outside shooting to improve dramatically whenever Michigan's coaches really have a chance to mold his form (probably not until the offseason).

As MGoBlog mentioned yesterday, this loss doesn't really hurt Michigan's NCAA Tourny resume, but they're going to need a few of these games against ranked opponents to go the other way. "Good losses" only get you so far. But they're set up well to win a few this season. Besides, Indiana is going to finish the Big Ten either 1st or 2nd (behind OSU), so not all of Michigan's ranked opponents will be Duke or this Indiana team.

Dancing

John Beilein is not a great recruiter. With the exception of the occasional diamond in the rough (Tim Hardaway Jr., for example) Beilein's recruiting can be generously called pedestrian. Some of that is surely due to the fact that he's a system coach, and it's a system that a lot of kids believe is unable of getting them to the next level. Other factors may be more self-imposed: Beilein is looking for a very specific player, the likes of which aren't typically ranked highly in the national recruiting game. But what Beilein lacks in the recruiting scene, he makes up for by being arguably the best Big Game coach in the country.

If you gave identical sets of players to Beilein and any other coach in the country and gave them a week to prepare before playing one another, the smart money is on Beilein. From the Clemson game in Michigan's last Tourney appearance, to the throttling of Tennessee on Friday, to the two-point loss to the defending national champs yesterday--a game in which Michigan probably gave up an average of three inches at every position--Michigan's efforts in big games are Herculean, in no small part because Beilein just Gets It. Were the rim just a smidge bigger or the refs not so intent on giving Coach Krzyzewski his 900th win yesterday, Michigan could have very well knocked off a team they had no business being on the court with, in no small part because of Beilein.

But after a somewhat miraculous run (that began just moments after I started wondering if Beilein should even be retained next year), Michigan finishes with their second NCAA Tourney win in three years and will return its entire team next year to make, hopefully, a serious run at the Big Ten title. And while last year, when the team began the season ranked a lofty #15 in the country and sputtered under infighting and lofty expectations, next year's team will have the look of one that, on paper at least, has been there before and is ready for the challenge.

Bullets

• Officiating. Ugh. There were more touch fouls called against Michigan against Duke  than I've ever seen in a college basketball game. Jordan Rules applied to the entirety of their roster and the refs were going to be damned if their names didn't go down in Krzyzewski's scrap book as the guys who whistled their way to his 900th win.
• In spite of that, Michigan found a way to keep the game within reach, largely because of the 1-3-1 that they went to late in the second half. They showed the zone earlier in the game and it was duly shredded because the players weren't aggressive enough. For the 1-3-1 to really work, players have to aggressively attack the ball handler and trap whenever possible. In the first half, it was a passive zone that Duke cut up, but in the second half, Duke started running clock too soon and Michigan could attack and trap causing difficult shots.
• Speaking of zones, that's basically all Michigan did against Tennessee on Friday where they showed the world just how bad the Vols are at shooting round orange balls into metal hoops. That was pure annihilation. Kudos to the team for not just winning another Tourney game, but for handing in the biggest trouncing in the history of the 8-9 matchup.
• That runner by Morris. Should. Have. Dropped. The team deserved it.
• Hardaway, while he ended with a decent stat line, seemed nonexistent against Duke until that ice cold three pointer late in the game. Some of his energy was spent covering Kyle Singler on the defensive end, but when Michigan's offense was sputtering, it would've been nice to see him get a few more looks.
• Though Zack Novak may have a limited skillset, dude is money in big games. Shooting 4-6 against Tennessee and 4-9 against Duke from the outside confirms that Novak is Michigan's go-to three point shooter. Stu Douglass, on the other hand, disappeared from sight during the tournament. Getting him back to his long-range shooting form will be essential if Michigan is able to make the proverbial leap.
• The big men all looked good in the tournament. Jordan Morgan was slipping screens all game against Duke and distributing the ball well. Although he ran into the foul trouble in both games (you can hardly blame him against Duke). Evan Smotrycz had probably his best game of the year against Duke. If that's what we can expect all of next year, look out. Jon Horford even got some burn and in his limited time, managed to posterize a Dukie.

To the offseason we go, but this year, there will be less "Are we going to win any games next year?" and more "I can't wait for this team to get back on the court."

MSU: #winning

This is how I watched the Michigan/MSU game on Saturday. Despite recently spending far too much money on a flat-screen LCD TV, I live in a geographically undesirable location to watch Michigan sporting events: aside from the fact that my cable provider doesn't have the Big Ten Network, I'm also well outside the footprint of regional coverage. So out of frustration--both from the inability to see games and lack of use of my shiny new toy--I began researching how I could watch the CBS live stream on my TV.

As it happens, my aging laptop was well prepared enough to come equipped with an HDMI output. And having a next-gen television, I was outfitted with a couple of HMDI cables. What you see above was the result, with sound only emanating from my minuscule laptop speakers (loud enough to hear but tinny and grating). My girlfriend had been studying for most of the game but came to my apartment with about 5 minutes left in the second half. I commented, "Well, it's not in HD, but this looks good enough that I can enjoy it."

Michigan's stat line was pretty typical against MSU: 5-19 from beyond the arc, out-rebounded by 19, and only turned the ball over 6 times in 40 minutes. Despite some recent excellent performances from the three-point line, this is what we've come to expect--and in the future, what we can continue to expect--from this basketball team. Darius Morris is a phenom with the ball and the most improved player year-to-year. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a legit scorer with room to grow and mature. Jordan Morgan has turned into a low-post threat with a bevy of offensive moves. The rest of the team is a bunch of role players that know what they're supposed to do and they generally do so well.

This isn't, however, the team of rangy three-pointer sharp shooters we all expected when Beilein came aboard, which was been my biggest concern in the rocky beginning of the Big Ten schedule. In spite of that, Michigan has found a way to compete with almost everyone and beaten a bunch of teams that, had you asked most fans what the results would be before the year, the consensus would've been blow outs. Last year, the team mostly abandoned Beilein's preferred defensive style, the 1-3-1. This year, in spite of mediocre outside shooting, Michigan has found ways to win inside-out, not really resembling the Beilein teams of old.

This team isn't HD, but they're good enough to enjoy.

Michigan now heads into the Big Ten Tournament ranked fourth in the league after an 8-3 run to end conference play. They're tied with Illinois in the conference as well as overall, and a win over the Illini would almost certainly lock up an NCAA tournament bid. As it stands, Michigan is probably (probably) in anyway with one of those epic "Wait for our name to be called" moments on the horizon. The best news is that the NCAA can't take MSU without also taking us. It feels good to have a win like this over our rivals again.

My reports of John Beilein's death were greatly exaggerated. #tigerblood

Reality check: Michigan hoops isn't a tourney lock, this year or next

After Michigan upset MSU on the road, the fanbase started chanting "bub-ble, bub-ble" in unison and waiting for another moment like the one to the right. And even after MSU started its precipitous drop out of the rankings, and is a one-point OT win against Indiana away from a six-game losing streak, the blogsphere is asking whether or not Michigan can still sneak into the NCAA Tournament this year and expecting a tournament berth next year. I'm more reserved about my excitement and have reservations about saying this team is going to make the leap next year. (My own hesitance toward John Beilein has been expressly noted recently, FWIW.)

This year, barring upsets over Wisconsin and Minnesota, Michigan will miss the tournament. When it gets to selection time and ESPN is reviewing every bubble team's resume, they'll arrive at Michigan and it will look like this:

Key wins: at Clemson, at MSU, (I can haz another upset?)
Key losses: vs. UTEP, at Indiana

And if Michigan stays par for the course for the rest of the year--beating the bottom dwellers, losing to the elite teams--their losses are more damning than their wins are redeemable. Michigan is solidly an NIT team, but without beating a ranked opponent, Michigan isn't going to sniff the NCAA.

This of course, turns everyone's eyes toward 2012, much like the end of the 2009 season, when Michigan was supposed to make the next leap. The keywords are Tim Hardaway Jr., a young team, and natural progression, none of which are the kind of givens that everyone wants to think they are.

Tim Hardaway Jr. Hardaway has been the most impressive freshman on Michigan's team this year, showing an ability to get to the bucket with decent, albeit inconsistent, range. MGoBlog describes him thusly:

In the clips above it's not the three-pointers that set hopes to tingle. We've seen Hardaway shoot a ton of threes this year and while he's adding a couple points of shooting percentage to them is encouraging, Michigan has plenty of guys who can take shots from outside the arc. It's the two different drives to the hoop where he glides into the lane and elevates to finish. Yes, you are 6'5". Yes, you are Tim Hardaway's son. Yes, you can turn into the kind of player who's an all-around nightmare. Yes, please, by next year.

Hardaway's skills are impressive, but people are acting like Beilein has never had a player of his ilk before.

Hai, have we not met before?

Hardaway's measurables and stats are remarkably similar to Harris' throughout his career at Michigan:

	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%
Harris 07-08	16.1	4.2	2.7	38.10%	31.80%
Harris 08-09	16.9	6.8	4.4	41.50%	32.70%
Harris 09-10	18.1	6	4.1	42.10%	30.80%
Hardaway 10-11	12	3.8	1.5	37.50%	32.60%

Not that adding Manny Harris to this team wouldn't be beneficial, but Hardaway's production and body type--to say nothing of his predilection to take bad three pointers--are things Beilein has had to play with in the past. With any luck, Hardaway will avoid the general apathy and combativeness with the coaching staff that Harris showed toward the end of his career at Michigan, but regardless, seeing Hardaway turn into an unstoppable force is a little optimistic IMO.

Furthermore, one of the reasons that Harris was able to put up so many points in his junior year was because the offense was primarily run through him. The existence of Darius Morris changes the Harris/Hardaway role significantly. What Michigan needs out of the small forward position is someone who can shoot the three and make good cuts; Hardaway only satisfies one of those requirements.

Brian says on MGoBlog that Michigan has plenty of players to shoot three pointers and isn't concerned with Hardaway's ability to do so at a high level. This is wrong, though. If Michigan wants to get away from playing Zack Novak at the power forward position, it'll mean a lineup of: Morris, Novak, Hardaway, Smotrycz, Morgan. With Morris' limited range and Morgan's presence as a low-post threat, that leaves Novak, Hardaway, and Smotrycz to take the majority of the threes. If Hardaway continues to take bad shots or fails to hit the good ones at a high clip, Michigan's offense could stall.

But they're so young. The biggest source of hope is that Michigan's team is once again one of the youngest in the country. Much like in 2009, Michigan's team is at a serious disadvantage in terms of college experience. This was one of the biggest points of optimism for the 2010 season that ultimately saw the team flame out spectacularly and lose close games in agonizing fashion.

On a player-by-player basis, Stu Douglass and Zack Novak both tanked magnificently during their sophomore years before having their best season's to date as juniors. The rest of that class is either no longer with the program or doesn't see significant playing time. The point being that, though it's a common trend, Michigan's freshmen don't have to morph into superstars next year.

In order to make the leap, though, Michigan will need Morgan, Smotrycz, Jon Horford, and Blake McLimans all to significantly improve their production. Morgan's evolution as a post player seems most likely. He's gotten better as the year has progressed, and his biggest weakness is a general lack of speed and poor footwork. With offseason training, most of this should be settled and we will see Morgan become a consistent threat next year in addition to improved defense (his biggest flaw).

The rest aren't quite as cut and dry. Smotrycz's evolution as a big man three-point shooting terror is probably more important than Morgan's improvement. As noted above, Michigan's starting lineup needs more players that can consistently hit three pointers, and having a big man that can stretch the defense is key to Beilein's offense. Smotrycz's 32/86 mark from outside indicates he might have the skills to get there next year, and if he can, that will truly be when Michigan takes the next step.

Horford and McLimans will also need to improve, though their gains have to come in the weight room first. Michigan's PF/C depth is basically non-existent this year and with no big-man commits yet, the importance of their progression is amplified. If one or both of them can't become quality Big Ten backups, it'll be tough sledding for another undersized Michigan iteration.

Do I think this team can be good? Yes, of course, but there are a lot of variables that are up in the air right now--and God forbid any of the starters or contributors gets injured--that make it hard for me to envision notably more success next year. If the freshmen can all make the proverbial leap and Hardaway can improve his three-point shooting, this team can end up ranked next year. But if Hardaway trends more toward Manny Harris' ball domination and none of the big men improve adequately, we'll have to revisit Beilein's job status.

Catching up with Michigan basketball

Last year, I predicted that Michigan basketball was going to be truly abysmal. With the loss of DeShawn Sim and the overrated Manny Harris, Michgan was losing most of its scoring, a lot of its depth, and with it, any hope for the future. I thought this season was going to be when the other shoe finally dropped and people realized that this basketball program was headed nowhere fast.

Fast forward to today, and Michigan has nearly completed its non-conference schedule and is sitting comfortably at 9-2 with a close loss to #10 Syracuse and an embarrassing flop to UTEP. Regardless, this is not the basketball team I expected to see. There are a couple of reasons for this, most prominent of which is the evolution of Darius Morris.

Last year, the only hope I saw for this team was in Morris' play:

I think Morris has arguably the most upside on the team and has the skillset to really run Beilein's system despite the massive deficiencies elsewhere...

I assume Morris' start against Wisconsin is the beginning of the Morris era and we rarely see him start games on the bench for the rest of his time at Michigan. A lot has been made of the fact that he can't really shoot from the outside, to which I say, bullpuckey. I don't want Morris shooting threes anyway. I want him to be a point guard, something that he's increasingly proving he might actually be. I'm exceedingly pessimistic about the 2011 season but that might change as Morris gets more and more playing time and we get to see just how well he can run the offense.

And here:

Next year, when Morris gets a little more confidence and playing time, I think we see him become arguably the most effective and important player on the team. And he's going to have to be, what with the harrowing lack of depth in Michigan's frontcourt.

And what we got this year was basically best-case scenario. Morris is averaging nearly 15 points and 7 assists per game, and is far and away Michigan's most productive and vital player. With Morris--a true point guard--on the court, Michigan's offense looks fluid and aggressive. He finds backdoor cuts and players under the basket, and most importantly, he isn't afraid to take shots. Darius Morris is turning into everything Manny Harris never was, in addition to all of the scoring prowess of Harris:

And when [Harris] does get [to the basket] and is met by two or three defenders, he rarely makes the right play: finding an open teammate for an easy shot. This year has been difficult to pick up assists because, well, Michigan can't hit shots, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't make the right play. This is where Harris As Star really falls apart for me: Stars make their teammates better and Harris rarely does so. I'm not expecting him to run the point because that's not his position, but he doesn't flow with this team, working within their system

The point being, Morris is a significant upgrade over Harris because of his ability to see the floor, his desire to play within the system, and his unselfish play.

But Morris isn't the only reason the team is succeeding. The other major factor is Michigan's punishing man-to-man defense. Though Beilein is known primarily for his 1-3-1 zone, Michigan has played almost all man-to-man this year to resounding results. Per MGoBlog:

Michigan's defense is now Wisconsin's: built on never fouling you, never blocking your shots, never stealing the ball, but forcing you into a wide array of not-very-good shots. Michigan is 10th in three point D, 57th in two point D, 11th in FTA/FGA, 14th in eFG%, and well down the list when it comes to forcing turnovers and getting blocks. Instead of leaving their feet they get in spots to take charges and get their hands in the air.

Michigan's defense has been smothering teams all year. If they keep this up, it won't matter that they can't shoot from three.

Speaking of which, Michigan still sucks at shooting three pointers, despite Beilein's offensive system to this point being a three-point-driven style. Last year, I looked at the statistical significance between 2008-09 team's shooting and last year's. The conlusion:

...we can likely say--albeit not definitively--that the 29.7% three-point shooting performance the team has shown this year is within the team's reasonable capabilities. That is, we can say that the performance this year is quite likely representative of the team's skill and performance given their outcomes last year.

And it's clear at this point that Michigan's shooting woes were not an isolated event. Frankly, the guys who are supposed to be good at shooting threes simply aren't. Of the players that have played significant minutes, only Stu Douglass is shooing threes over a 40% clip. And only two (Matt Vogrich and Evan Smotrycz) are shooting above 30%. Simply put, this team isn't very good at shooting threes.

The rest of the team's success can be attributed to role players Zack Novak and Douglass playing their natural positions and performing to expectations, and some of the younger players stepping up in big moments. Tim Hardaway Jr. is in the process of solidifying himself as a star on this team, averaging 11 PPG and 3.5 RPG. Jordan Morgan is averaging 10 PPG and 7 RPG--despite being an awful, slow post defender. And Smotrycz has shown flashes of brilliance early on even though he's physically unimposing and being forced into early playing time.

What does it mean?
Before the season, I thought Michigan was headed toward the cellar of the Big Ten, below up-and-comers Indiana and the other recent basement dwellers. But with the emergence of Morris and Michigan's unflappable defense, this team could turn into something legitimate. More importantly, the future once against looks bright for Beilein's squad. Whereas at the end of last year, Michigan looked to be digging themselves a hole they wouldn't soon come out of, now Michigan appears to be a young start up, capable of running with any team in the country on a given night.

Other: I'll be keeping a running tab of all the players' stats this year, much like the football ones on the right sidebar. Right now I just have per-game averages, but I might start to include total as well. Let me know if you want to see anything else on there. Here.

A Peedi-less basketball team

I missed Obama's State of the Union address last night because I spent most of that time doing a podcast with friend and former Daily coworker Andrew Kahn who writes The Sports Journalists. The podcast should be up sometime in the near-ish future. But that's not the point. What is, is that we spent the time talking about Michigan basketball and I finally had to confront the idea of this Michigan basketball team without DeShawn Sims next year. The outlook is bleak.

Per UMHoops' scholarship breakdown--and assuming the current commits hold--Michigan has one open scholarship spot next year with basically two targets left: 6'5" wing Trey Zeigler and 6'9" power forward Jon Horford. Best case scenario, Michigan picks up Zeigler and more or less replaces the athleticism of Manny Harris, whose departure is imminent. But with the loss of Sims and senior Zach Gibson, Michigan is left with the following "big" men:

• Ben Cronin (broken and from the sounds of it, might never play basketball again)
• 6'8" Jordan Morgan
• 6'10" Blake McLimans
• 6'8" true freshman Evan Smotrycz

Assuming we don't see Cronin again, the team gains minimal size--McLimans' two inches--and loses it's most talented player, replacing him with a true freshmen and two (likely) redshirt freshman as the crux of the offense. Kill. Me. Now. Whether or not Harris decides to stick around for his senior year, Michigan is going to take a serious step back from this year's production and performance.

Simply put, three-point shooting teams don't function without either a) a functioning and threatening low-post presence or b) a Steve Nash-like point guard that can slash and dish. It's easiest for me to use NBA comparisons, so allow me to do so. If you look at the Orlando Magic, they're essentially a three-point shooting team. What happens to them, though, if they replace Dwight Howard with a mobile, albeit undersized, power forward? Or, say, Ben Wallace? Howard is the focus of that offense even though they're most effective from the three-point line (when they're winning anyway). The point being, three-point shooting teams need the pivot point of their offense to be in the lane. This opens up three pointers and good looks for your perimeter shooters. Without that pivot point, you turn into an amorphous blob with no apparent identity besides contested threes (see: Michigan 2009-2010, pre-Big Ten season).

Beilein says the team runs best when Sims is performing well. And this is exactly why: It has to run through Sims to be an effective team. With the loss of Sims, though, Michigan is going into uncharted waters. With similarly undersized big men, Michigan is apparently lacking the kind of post presence that can make their scheme truly effective. And worse still, the players that are stepping in for Sims are untested and young. Try to imagine what this team would look like right now if Sims were a freshman. Ick.

Now, the other option, and one that I think is probably more likely, is the emergence of Darrius Morris. I really like Morris' game. He's quick and smart with the ball and is clearly second to Harris as the best slasher on the team. Next year, when Morris gets a little more confidence and playing time, I think we see him become arguably the most effective and important player on the team. And he's going to have to, what with the harrowing lack of depth in Michigan's frontcourt. But if Morris doesn't develop or I'm terribly wrong about his game, Michigan is going to be in a significant amount of trouble. Either way, expect regression next year. And what will look like a seriously undercoached squad, whether or not they actually are.

[/Depressing rant on future sanity and enjoyment]