Coaching your way to victory

I've been as critical--if not more so--of the Michigan basketball team as anyone in the M blogosphere. I've written about this before, but my philosophy about basketball aligns pretty closely with that of the now defunct FreeDarko.com. One of the primary reasons for this tendency is because before approximately 2002, my interest in basketball could be pretty easily summarized: none. FreeDarko became a formative basketball tome for me, which means I favor highly athletic, fast, improvisational basketball, the likes of which John Beilein comprehensively squashes.

There's been enough statistical analysis to support my favored brand of hoops, at least insofar as talent is concerned. In basketball, more than in any other sport, sheer talent level trumps just about everything. Sleepers, the likes of which you find a lot in football, don't really exist in any sustainable quantity in basketball. In fact, once you get to a pro level, they're basically non-existant (though Jeremy Lin is doing his best to disprove this idea). As such, the construction of the current Wolverine basketball squad is not really my style: a bunch of under the radar shooters that, frankly, are living up to their diminutive recruiting hype, and a few players with clear potential (Hardaway, Burke, Morris previously, etc).

Beilein, however, is a mastermind. As most Michigan fans will tell you, Beilein is often cited as one of the best, if not the best, coach in college basketball. What he's been able to craft out of the motley collection of players Michigan runs out on any given night is nothing short of brilliance. Given the injuries that have plagued the team's depth for the last four years and the early defections of Manny Harris and Darius Morris, to be challenging for a Big Ten title this late in this season is a level of coaching that few of Beilein's contemporaries could even imagine.

On Saturday, Michigan played a team that is objectively better than them at just about every position. And they've done that on a few occasions this season. Michigan is routinely outsized, out muscled, and out skilled. But somehow, the team keeps winning. This isn't a Tebow situation either, where the team is outplayed the whole game only to pull it out at the end. Michigan never trailed against Ohio State, one of the country's best teams, and a team that is, with Jared Sullinger, uniquely equipped to punish Michigan's greatest weakness.

At one point during the second half, Sullinger went on a dominating streak of easy buckets in the paint. The Buckeyes ran down the floor, Sullinger got position on the block, and after an easy entry pass, Sullinger would quickly and easily finish at the basket. I Tweeted at the time that Michigan should change their defensive front to a zone defense in order to limit Sullinger's touches inside and force the Buckeyes to shoot more three pointers, the likes of which they struggled to hit the whole game. Beilein called a timeout with 8:46 left in the game and subsequently came out of the huddle in man defense again. I was displeased, but from that point on, Sullinger made only two free throws (earned after an offensive rebound) and a layup. He didn't even attempt another shot until the frantic final seconds of the game.

Beilein nullified arguably the best player in the country during the final stretch of a tight game by.... I don't know, working on his players' footwork? Obviously the team didn't sell out on Sullinger, opening easier shots for the rest of the Buckeyes. So I don't know what was said, but the entire scenario was sublimely Beilein. With a team in serious foul trouble (Ohio State was in the bonus at the 12-minute mark of the second half) and a group of big men that would struggle to compete with Sullinger in any situation, Beilein stuck to his base defense and coached the team to a win. This is the epitome of a coach putting his team in the position to win.

Bullets

• Those stepback jumpers by Stu Douglass and Zack Novak late in the game were beautiful. Terrifying, then beautiful.
• Trey Burke was the difference in this game. His 5/3 assist/turnover ratio is indicative of why Michigan won this game. He effectively nullified the defense of Aaron Craft by taking care of the ball and not giving the Buckeyes anything easy in transition.
• What a great game for Tim Hardaway Jr. to show up. 13 points on 4/5 shooting? Yes please. However, I could've sworn those back-to-back free throw misses were going to lose Michigan the game. They didn't, of course, and Hardaway turned in probably his best game of the year.
• Jordan Morgan was once again spectacular guarding Sullinger. He was great at fronting Sullinger and denying passes into the post. The one complaint about Morgan's defense in the game was allowing Sullinger to spin into the lane late in the game. Early on, Morgan was overplaying Sullinger to the inside, forcing him to spin baseline where help defense was coming. He stopped doing that during the aforementioned Sullinger run in the second half and I'm not sure why. Might've been a coaching decision.
• Michigan is going to need to run layup lines for the next month. This team missed a lot of easy looks at the basket. That's how you lose basketball games.

To close the season, Michigan needs to win four games in which they'll be favored in order to have a shot at winning a Big Ten regular season title. It would be amazing if the team could get even a share of the title, but more importantly, it's clear that this team is set up to challenge for the title every year. Beilein Uber Alles, amirite?

Notes from Michigan vs. Indiana

Now that I've finally had a chance to watch a few Michigan hoops games (including actually attending the Bradley game, my first in-person Michigan hoops game since a 2004 throttling at the hands of Michigan State), I feel like I finally have something to say about the team...

• Yesterday's game was not close. I know the scoreboard says Michigan only lost by 2 points, but that game was totally dominated by the Hoosiers. Michigan allowed Indiana to shoot 55% from the field, including 63% from outside (most of which were completely uncontested). The teams had equal rebounds, Indiana had two more assists and five more blocks, and Michigan only held onto the ball slightly better than the Hoosiers (12 and 15 turnovers respectively). Three more made three pointers by the Wolverines and seven missed free throws by Indiana is the only thing that kept this game close.
• The main reason for the loss: athleticism. Michigan got kind of exposed last night. It will surprise no one that Stu Douglass and Zack Novak are less athletic than some of their counter parts (spot up three-point shooters tend to be), but just how much less athletic was put in stark contrast last night. Sure, not every team has someone as electric as Victor Oladipo, but Michigan simply could not keep up with that team last night. They were faster and stronger at basically every position, which resulted in contested shots for the Wolverines, blow bys on the defensive end, and an inability to get open, both on and off the ball (I've never seen back cuts defended so well without giving up anything on the frontside; Indiana is just that much faster).
• This leads me to my next point of contention which I will be widely derided for: Tim Hardaway Jr. is not very fast. He can jump pretty high and has decent straight-line speed, but his first step is devastatingly slow. There's a reason you can barely give him the ball in isolation situations on the offensive end: he can't beat his man off the dribble. Similarly, this lack of quickness is one of the primary reasons that he's such an abhorrent defender. If you didn't believe it before, you should after last night. And on nights when he's going 0/7 from outside, he's as much a detriment to the team as a benefit (19 points on 19 shots from your star player is not a recipe for success).
• Jordan Morgan did a really good job defending Cody Zeller last night, despite his still positive stat line. Morgan denied passes into the post by fronting Zeller all game and was quick enough to get back into position so as not to allow lob passes or anything inside.
• Evan Smotrycz. Damn, kid can shoot. Can't dribble. Can't pass. Loves fouling. But boy can he shoot.
• Enough has been said about Trey Burke to date, and I'm not sure I have much more to offer. He does have one of the softest shots I've ever seen. I'm not really sure why, or whether or not it's less effective because of it, but his shots flutter in a way that I don't think I've ever seen before. Especially from outside, he seems to heave the ball more than shoot it. I expect his outside shooting to improve dramatically whenever Michigan's coaches really have a chance to mold his form (probably not until the offseason).

As MGoBlog mentioned yesterday, this loss doesn't really hurt Michigan's NCAA Tourny resume, but they're going to need a few of these games against ranked opponents to go the other way. "Good losses" only get you so far. But they're set up well to win a few this season. Besides, Indiana is going to finish the Big Ten either 1st or 2nd (behind OSU), so not all of Michigan's ranked opponents will be Duke or this Indiana team.

Am I too pessimistic about Michigan basketball?

After yesterday's post on the basketball team, a few commenters noted that I was probably too pessimistic about the team and was showing a bias against Beilein. I took exception to that but realized that I hadn't ever fully explained why I was concerned about the direction of the team.

In short, my biggest concern is that Beilein isn't bringing in the kinds of (or level of) players that he needs to make his system successful. The shooters he's recruiting and mentoring aren't turning into the kind of knock down shooters that his style of basketball needs to be consistently good. But since he plays a high variance brand of basketball, you occasionally get games that look a lot closer than they should be against elite teams and a lot worse than they should be against bad teams. The only way to negate this variance is to find consistent performers and stock your team with them. In my opinion, Beilein hasn't done that and doesn't appear to be taking the team in that direction either.

So I decided to take a look at all of Beilein's WVU teams, as well as the last three year of Michigan's squad. I charted all of the players that recorded over 60 three-point attempts throughout the season (an average of about two per game). I then took those numbers and looked at what percentage of the team's three pointers were being taken by those players and what their collective shooting percentage was:

Year	Record	60+ attempts	% 3s from 60+	60+ 3P%	% total shots from 3
WVU 02-03	14-15	P. Beilein (36/105) K. Pittsnogle (49/103) J. Herber (35/92) T. Sally (25/85) D. Schifino (25/83) J. Yeager (20/68)	536/593 (90.3%)	190/536 (35.4%)	593/1577 (37.6%)
WVU 03-04	17-14	J.D. Collins (19/47) P. Beilein (69/170) T. Sally (24/68) K. Pittsnogle (53/144) T. Relph (29/80)	462/656 (70.42%)	175/462 (37.87%)	656/1631 (40.2%)
WVU 04-05	24-11	P. Beilein (70/197) K. Pittsnogle (60/141) T. Sally (48/132) M Gansey (44/127) J. Herber (47/124) F. Young (21/64)	785/885 (88.7%)	290/785 (36.94%)	885/1930 (45.8%)
WVU 05-06	22-11	K. Pittsnogle (91/227) P. Beilein (67/203) M. Gansey (75/175) F. Young (42/134) J. Herber (29/114) J.D. Collins (20/63)	916/967 (94.7%)	324/916 (35.3%)	967/1875 (51.6%)
WVU 06-07	27-9	F. Young (117/270) A. Ruoff (69/205) J. Alexander (40/131) D. Nichols (50/119) D. Butler (39/113) J. Smalligan (31/68)	906/989 (91.6%)	346/906 (38.2%)	989/2011 (49.2%)
Mich 07-08	10–22	D. Sims (43/142) M. Harris (42/132) A. Wright (35/123) K. Grady (33/92) R. Coleman (23/73)	562/731 (76.8%)	176/562 (31.3%)	760/1758 (43.2%)
Mich 08-09	21-14	M. Harris (52/159) S. Douglass (52/155) Z. Novak (52/151) LLP (31/90) K. Grady (30/83) D. Sims (26/82)	720/912 (78.9%)	243/720 (33.7%)	912/1910 (47.7%)
Mich 09-10	15-17	S. Douglass (52/158) M. Harris (48/156) Z. Novak (44/144) LLP (30/103) D. Sims (21/74)	635/760 (83.5%)	195/635 (30.7%)	760/1758 (43.2%)

What you see probably isn't very surprising. Beilein's best team (06-07 West Virginia) saw 91% of their three pointers being taken by six players that were shooting a collective 38%--not to mention that they shot almost 1,000 threes that season. His worst seasons, obviously, are ones in which the majority of the three pointers are coming from a group of players that isn't shooting the ball very well (see: Michigan 09-10).

The more disturbing trend, IMO, is that Michigan's offense through 2009 didn't appear to have the definition that West Virginia's did during his time there. More than one in every five three pointers over the last three seasons has been shot by someone not in Michigan's core group of shooters, implying that Beilein had either given the green light to too many players or the team was just wildly undisciplined (my guess is the former). Much like Beilein abandoned the 1-3-1 last year, it seems that the schemes that made him a commodity at West Virginia were being scrapped for some sort of hybrid system.

This year, however, Hardaway, Novak, Douglass, Smotrycz, Morris, and Vogrich have all taken over 50 shots (about two a game, like above). These six account for alomst all of Michigan's threes--546/576 (94.7%)--and they're shooting at a decent clip, too--197/546 (36.1%)--which looks more like Beilein's better teams in the past and is far more defined that any of his previous Michigan teams.

These are not exactly the numbers I expected going into this process, though. After looking at the success of the 2008-09 season against the statistical breakdown above, the decline last year looks more reasonable: Beilein tried to define his offense in the mold of his previous success but was crippled by horrible shooting. This year, the team's shooting breakdown looks similar to that of previous successful Beilein teams and has some of the shooting to match. Not only does this look sustainable, but it looks like Beilein finally has a plan in place for this team.

I'm still concerned about the collective defense and big-man depth, but if this team can sustain this kind of performance and gain only experience next year, we could potentially see the same success Beilein generated in Morgantown. So while I don't think I was being overly pessimistic/biased, I was uninformed. Which is probably worse.

Michigan State upset: Where Wet Owl gets meta

You're welcome, Michigan fans. It's only now that I can reveal the true genius of my plan: criticize John Beilein's performance in order to motivate the team to defeat in-state rival Michigan State and end one of the more infuriating streaks of the last several years. In reality, Wet Owl mocks mocks my predictions and tells Mike Hart, "zone left".

Yesterday's victory against Michigan State was at worst, the end to a losing streak that's been alive since 2007, and at best, a sign of what Michigan's basketball team could be in the future. After coming close a lot of times this year, Michigan finally finished a game off with the help of a Stu Douglass dagger and running the shot clock down to five seconds on seemingly every Michigan possession in the second half. The team played as well or better than they have all year and it finally paid off. Michigan out-rebounded MSU (!), shot 10/21 from three-point range, and finished the game with two more assists than Michigan State. They out hustled and out played the Spartans in their own building, something a non-hockey Michigan team hasn't done in a  while.

Obviously, this one win isn't going to change my opinions on Beilein: I'm still concerned that sustained success under Beilein is either a long time away or never coming. But yesterday's game gave glimpses of what could be: a three-point shooting powerhouse that plays tight defense and hits the boards hard. The team's performance is the best-case scenario going forward, and in the future, increasing experience should lower variance and provide more consistent play. Whether or not Michigan frequently approaches 50% from three-point range is unknown and unlikely, but if they can find a way to avoid their persistent shooting woes, we could see a quick return to the NCAA squad that captured the fanbase's hearts in 2009.

Michigan State, meanwhile, played a remarkably poor game, shooting 5-19 from outside (hey, those are Michigan numbers!) and, as mentioned, were out-rebounded by an undersized Wolverine squad. A missed open layup down the stretch encapsulated the Spartans' game: missing easy shots because Michigan's defense took them out of rhythm. If the two teams played yesterday's game 10 more times, I'd expect MSU to win 9 or 10 of those games. But fortunately, that's not how sports work. Michigan turned East Lansing into Wootcity and made me look silly just days after I questioned the team and coach's performance.

They're now 2-6 in conference and, though the NCAA Tournament is almost certainly out of question now, Michigan can pull itself out of the Big Ten cellar with upcoming games against Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, and Penn State. If they can win 2-3 of these games, the good vibes from this Michigan State win may help carry the team to the end of the season, but with an upcoming matchup against #1 Ohio State, a loss to any of these Big Ten bottom feeders could quickly send the team spiraling back into a 6-game (or more) losing streak. For now, let's celebrate. Michigan has broken one of our devastating losing streaks.

Catching up with Michigan basketball

Last year, I predicted that Michigan basketball was going to be truly abysmal. With the loss of DeShawn Sim and the overrated Manny Harris, Michgan was losing most of its scoring, a lot of its depth, and with it, any hope for the future. I thought this season was going to be when the other shoe finally dropped and people realized that this basketball program was headed nowhere fast.

Fast forward to today, and Michigan has nearly completed its non-conference schedule and is sitting comfortably at 9-2 with a close loss to #10 Syracuse and an embarrassing flop to UTEP. Regardless, this is not the basketball team I expected to see. There are a couple of reasons for this, most prominent of which is the evolution of Darius Morris.

Last year, the only hope I saw for this team was in Morris' play:

I think Morris has arguably the most upside on the team and has the skillset to really run Beilein's system despite the massive deficiencies elsewhere...

I assume Morris' start against Wisconsin is the beginning of the Morris era and we rarely see him start games on the bench for the rest of his time at Michigan. A lot has been made of the fact that he can't really shoot from the outside, to which I say, bullpuckey. I don't want Morris shooting threes anyway. I want him to be a point guard, something that he's increasingly proving he might actually be. I'm exceedingly pessimistic about the 2011 season but that might change as Morris gets more and more playing time and we get to see just how well he can run the offense.

And here:

Next year, when Morris gets a little more confidence and playing time, I think we see him become arguably the most effective and important player on the team. And he's going to have to be, what with the harrowing lack of depth in Michigan's frontcourt.

And what we got this year was basically best-case scenario. Morris is averaging nearly 15 points and 7 assists per game, and is far and away Michigan's most productive and vital player. With Morris--a true point guard--on the court, Michigan's offense looks fluid and aggressive. He finds backdoor cuts and players under the basket, and most importantly, he isn't afraid to take shots. Darius Morris is turning into everything Manny Harris never was, in addition to all of the scoring prowess of Harris:

And when [Harris] does get [to the basket] and is met by two or three defenders, he rarely makes the right play: finding an open teammate for an easy shot. This year has been difficult to pick up assists because, well, Michigan can't hit shots, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't make the right play. This is where Harris As Star really falls apart for me: Stars make their teammates better and Harris rarely does so. I'm not expecting him to run the point because that's not his position, but he doesn't flow with this team, working within their system

The point being, Morris is a significant upgrade over Harris because of his ability to see the floor, his desire to play within the system, and his unselfish play.

But Morris isn't the only reason the team is succeeding. The other major factor is Michigan's punishing man-to-man defense. Though Beilein is known primarily for his 1-3-1 zone, Michigan has played almost all man-to-man this year to resounding results. Per MGoBlog:

Michigan's defense is now Wisconsin's: built on never fouling you, never blocking your shots, never stealing the ball, but forcing you into a wide array of not-very-good shots. Michigan is 10th in three point D, 57th in two point D, 11th in FTA/FGA, 14th in eFG%, and well down the list when it comes to forcing turnovers and getting blocks. Instead of leaving their feet they get in spots to take charges and get their hands in the air.

Michigan's defense has been smothering teams all year. If they keep this up, it won't matter that they can't shoot from three.

Speaking of which, Michigan still sucks at shooting three pointers, despite Beilein's offensive system to this point being a three-point-driven style. Last year, I looked at the statistical significance between 2008-09 team's shooting and last year's. The conlusion:

...we can likely say--albeit not definitively--that the 29.7% three-point shooting performance the team has shown this year is within the team's reasonable capabilities. That is, we can say that the performance this year is quite likely representative of the team's skill and performance given their outcomes last year.

And it's clear at this point that Michigan's shooting woes were not an isolated event. Frankly, the guys who are supposed to be good at shooting threes simply aren't. Of the players that have played significant minutes, only Stu Douglass is shooing threes over a 40% clip. And only two (Matt Vogrich and Evan Smotrycz) are shooting above 30%. Simply put, this team isn't very good at shooting threes.

The rest of the team's success can be attributed to role players Zack Novak and Douglass playing their natural positions and performing to expectations, and some of the younger players stepping up in big moments. Tim Hardaway Jr. is in the process of solidifying himself as a star on this team, averaging 11 PPG and 3.5 RPG. Jordan Morgan is averaging 10 PPG and 7 RPG--despite being an awful, slow post defender. And Smotrycz has shown flashes of brilliance early on even though he's physically unimposing and being forced into early playing time.

What does it mean?
Before the season, I thought Michigan was headed toward the cellar of the Big Ten, below up-and-comers Indiana and the other recent basement dwellers. But with the emergence of Morris and Michigan's unflappable defense, this team could turn into something legitimate. More importantly, the future once against looks bright for Beilein's squad. Whereas at the end of last year, Michigan looked to be digging themselves a hole they wouldn't soon come out of, now Michigan appears to be a young start up, capable of running with any team in the country on a given night.

Other: I'll be keeping a running tab of all the players' stats this year, much like the football ones on the right sidebar. Right now I just have per-game averages, but I might start to include total as well. Let me know if you want to see anything else on there. Here.

The things I love are starting to smolder again

Following the Michigan football spring game, I went into a brief stage of panic followed shortly by the moderate level of panic I've been experiencing since. The football team is either going to be awful or mediocre or great, and at this point, I've sent myself into a Buster Bluth-like self-induced coma so as to not talk about the team save moments of excessive need. (For example, my cousin-in-law--is this a thing?--who is apparently an MSU fan went into a brief bout of righteousness at the family's Easter dinner table about Demar Dorsey. I did my best to reasonably defend the kid but my parents later chastised me for being loud and inappropriate at a family dinner. But I digress.) And in all honesty, I had tried to forget our basketball team existed; on-court results openly questioned their existence, why shouldn't I?

And then word comes down that Laval Lucas-Perry has been booted from the team and well...

It becomes clearer by the day just how much of a rebuilding year we are bracing ourselves for. Douglass, Morris, Novak, and Vogrich are the only returning players with college experience. Blake McLimans is dealing with playing at a new weight. Jordan Morgan is still recovering from injury. Evan Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway were likely to play significant roles but this ups the ante.

I Tweeted that the loss of LLP would be a huge hit for the program despite his sub-par production but I didn't dare look at just how scary the depth chart might be. UMHoops looked and, well, it's just as bad as anyone could've imagined.

I have long bemoaned the death of the John Beilein-led Wolverines, but I can think of no clearer symbol of, well, utter failure than in his fourth year to have only 1/3 of the team entering the season with any game experience at all, one of whom averaged only 5.5 minutes per game in his freshman season--and let's note that a) Beilein isn't recruiting one-and-dones; b) he didn't necessarily take over a program chocked full of upper classmen; and c) it's not like the team succeeded last year and graduated their talent a la UNC 2009.

As Dylan at UMHoops says, this is a rebuilding year, but is that even acceptable in the fourth year of the program? The four game-experienced players Michigan has returning combined for 30.59% of the team's scoring last year on 44.35% shooting (31.06% from beyond the arc) and an assist/turnover ratio of 1.87, all of which, surprisingly, are at or slightly above the team's season averages (though if you ask anyone, I'm sure they'd tell you that having only these players return is not the most promising proposition). The rest of Michigan's team now is inexperienced and undersized (mostly), and is going find themselves led by Novak and Douglass as the team's returning "veterans".

I trust Beilein, or at least I'm trying to. He took the team to the Tournament in his second season and should be awarded some sort of leniency for that, but it's difficult not to look at the current state of the program and think it's headed downward. One bad break (Ben Cronin) and one early departure (Manny) should not send an entire program into a tailspin of crippling youth and, let's face it, mediocre players, but they have. If Rich Rodriguez didn't exist, Beilein would be feeling a lot more heat for this, but Michigan will always and forever be a football--and hockey, lots of people forget this--school. I'm about at the end of my rope with Beilein. If we don't see anything this year, you can expect me to be leading the torch and pitchfork crew into Crisler.

What did you expect?

After Michigan needed overtime to be a bottom of the barrel Iowa team last Tuesday, some people decided that the massive amount of evidence supporting the idea that Michigan is a bad basketball team with no hope for the future should be thrown out because, well, they kept fighting and maybe the can shoot. Moral victories and coaching/playing for pride, hard fought, etc. And then they lost to last place in the Big Ten Penn State. At which point, I need to once again say: This is a bad basketball team with no hope for the next two years.

For much of this season, Michigan has been poorly coached, outmatched on the floor, and downright bad. They can't shoot, and there's little evidence pointing to the fact that they'll be better next year. They are losing their most consistent scorer--top scorer in Big Ten play, to boot--as well as the only other center on the roster. There's a chance their most prolific scorer will leave the team early for the NBA. And the coach who inspired so much hope last season, bringing Michigan to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade, has shown a complete regression on all fronts and looks hapless to figure things out. With a middling recruiting class coming in next year and a coach who historically hasn't been able to recruit on the level of the national elite, the Michigan program looks to be headed in the complete wrong direction.

Anything but pessimism for this team is entirely misguided.

It's a shame, too, because during the first half of the Penn State game, and one of the first times all season, Michigan's offense finally looked complex. There was movement on the floor, back screens, flashes to the basket, and hell, even Novak and Douglass started driving into the lane--Beilein clearly had been working on this in practice, and the team looked competent. Manny Harris played from both sides of the floor instead of just standing as a fixture on the left shoulder, and consequently had one of his better games of the season. And yet, in the end, the team shot 6-28 from three-point range (four of those makes by Harris who, again, is about 50/50 to leave the team at the end of the year) and proved to be completely inept on offense. How do you build a three-point shooting team around players that can't hit three pointers? Who has Beilein brought in that can contribute?

This program is in serious trouble.

Michigan State: now with 80% more fierce

But seriously though, Michigan is going to lose by a million points tonight.

So Michigan takes on in-state rival Michigan State in Crisler Arena. Want any chance of the NCAA looking your way this year? You're going to need to sweep the season series against the #5 team in the country. This is not going to happen. To wit, MSU is the only unbeaten in conference play, gritting out some late wins against seriously inferior opponents and blowing out everyone else they've played; they're very good. (Well, MSU is Big Ten good, which is to say they're the Ohio State of college basketball: Able to clean house in the Big Ten but haven't been competitive with the national big dogs in quite a few years.)

Michigan gets back Manny Harris and at least one or two people think he's going to be awesome. Per DeShawn Sims: "Manny will come out and probably play one of his best games. He’ll come out and play exceptional tomorrow, I think.” Well, that would be nice, and Michigan definitely needs it. To have any shot in this game, Harris is going to have to play like he did last year and Sims is going to have to continue his unquestioned brilliance on both ends of the floor. Also needed will be big games from Zach Novak, who's coming off arguably his best shooting performance of the season, and Stu Douglass, who's coming off his worst.

The thing that concerns me most about this game, however, is MSU's fast break. Michigan's defense has been almost non-existent in transition this year, and MSU likes to push the ball as much as they can. If Michigan can't slow down the MSU fast break (and they can't), this is going to get ugly quickly. Worse still, when MSU sets up in the half court, they rebound better than just about everyone on the planet, are methodical, and can score from the inside and outside. You'll probably see Beilein go to a zone early in the game to try and pull even in rebounds. I shudder with terrified anticipation.

Michigan wins in the same way that they'll always win. By playing well: shooting well from outside, holding onto the ball, not giving up too many offensive rebounds, playing tight defense, and most importantly of late, finishing games. Michigan's been able to put it all together for a grand total of one game this season (UConn) and seeing them do it again against an in-state and conference rival is unlikely. But if MSU is off their game or Michigan can weather the various inevitable runs MSU will have, they might have a chance to win it at the end. Probably not, though: Michigan State 76, Michigan 62.

Living in a Manny-less world

This blog could nary be afforded a more perfect litmus test for its constant refrain of "Manny. Meh." than the situation that occurred over the weekend wherein he was suspended for "unsportsmanlike conduct" in practice (about which, more later) and missed the entire game against a good-to-great opponent. The results? Mixed.

Michigan lost to #15 Purdue by 10 points in a game that probably wasn't quite as close as the final score would indicate. Anthony Wright started in place of the suspended Harris and did about as well as you'd expect Anthony Wright to do, which was not great. The guards turned the ball over constantly and Purdue was simply too much for Michigan to handle.

The defense of Michigan was absolutely atrocious, the worst it's looked all season. Now, that feeling can be tempered a bit, because they were playing a really really good team in a difficult environment, but that can't excuse all of it. Purdue got anything they wanted on just about every possession. Michigan had no defensive answer for anything Purdue was doing and they looked terribly outmatched the entire game. Worse still, Beilein decided to go back to the 2-3 zone, which, well, it turned out about exactly how it has the rest of the season: forcing no turnovers, slow rotations, a vacated paint, etc. It did very little to stop the hot shooting of Purdue and generally made Michigan look lost and inept of defense (Purdue shot 50% from the field!!!).

But what of the offense, my main contention in the Manny saga? Well, for starters, the team had their best three-point shooting game of the season, shooting 7-17 from beyond the arc (by my spot checking, the only 40%+ shooting game all season). Now obviously, this isn't an indictment of Manny, but I think it does speak to the fact that the ball moves better when he's off the floor--small sample size (one game) noted, but i think it still holds some merit, especially playing in a tough environment. But then again, there was nothing going toward the basket that wasn't Sims-driven. (Sims had another amazing day and, as it should be clear to everyone now, is far and away the most talented player on the Michigan roster.) The turnovers were once again symptomatic of the team's lack of depth and inexperienced guards. And rebounding, despite the loss of Harris' gaudy rebounding numbers, did not really fall off in any unexpected way: Michigan was only out-rebounded by 6, a number you'd probably expect to see whether or not Harris was in the game.

The one player that suffered the most from the loss of Manny was Stu Douglass. He had an off night all around: couldn't shoot, couldn't hold onto the ball, couldn't defend. On the offensive side of the ball, Douglass is too slow to create his own shot and relies pretty heavily on Harris' kickouts for his good looks. For most of the game, Douglass couldn't get any open looks because he doesn't come off of screens fast enough, nor can he create off the dribble for himself.

The Suspension
Beilein is going to have a press conference in about 20 minutes and will likely answer all of the speculation I'm about to throw into the Internet, but man, this sounds like an open insubordination/"I'm the star" kind of suspension to me. From the sound of it, he did something that attacked the team, rather than punching someone or personally attacking one player/coach.

This is another reason I've been kind of down on Harris this year: He just doesn't look like he cares. He seems to be biding his time before he declares for the NBA (which will be at the end of this year). But with his performance this year, and this suspension now on the national radar, dude is seriously hurting his NBA stock. We'll see what happens at 2 pm today, but this is all pretty discouraging.

Penn State Preview

Michigan takes on a struggling Penn State tonight at the Bryce Jordan Center in what is a must-win for Michigan should they have any fantasies about making it to the postseason. Penn State is coming off back-to-back conference losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin, more or less holding serve with the former but getting blow out by the latter. Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a big win against an Evan Turner-less Ohio State. (Can we all agree now how happy we are that Michigan played OSU the game before Turner came back? Though he was mostly unimpressive in his return, his presence might've been enough to beat Michigan and basically bounce them from the postseason altogether. The rematch in Columbus this year is going to be ugly.)

Penn State's top performer is speedster supergaurd Taylor Battle, who is averaging 18.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 3.6 APG, while shooting 43% from the field (34% from 3-point). So basically Manny Harris numbers on a guy that's five inches shorter and faster. If Michigan wants to win this game, they're going to have to shut Battle down. This will be done with a combination of players: Darrius Morris, LLP, and maybe even Stu Douglass for a time. As presumably the fastest of the three, I wouldn't be surprised to see Morris' minutes go up in this game as he tries to keep Battle in front of him. And while Douglass may be too slow, he's probably long enough to bother Battle's shot. I expect too, that Manny will play Battle on a number of possessions.

As for Michigan, you know the drill: No bench, can't rebound, probably can't shoot, relies on Harris and Sims--both of whom are coming off huge performances against OSU. Michigan is going to need another big game from their big two, and if Douglass and Novak are hitting shots, Michigan might be in business. Douglass looks like he may have found his stroke again, but Novak, aside from a five-shot streak of brilliance against Indiana, has looked inept. Fortunately, Penn State has the same size issues that Michigan does, so the rebounding edge will probably be a toss up. Penn State is also shooting well from 3-point on the season (34%), so being able to defend the three point arc without giving up the lane too much will be essential.

I don't really have any idea how this one will play out. These teams are pretty evenly matched this year (sad, yes). I'd like to see Beilein go back to the 1-3-1 a little more in this game (he may have against OSU, but I wasn't able to watch most of that game) and basically never use the 2-3 zone which appears to be awful for this team. If Michigan can't find an answer for Battle, and all results this season indicate they probably can't, they'll be in for a long night.

Is it 2010 yet?

With about six minutes left in the game yesterday and Michigan down by four points, Stu Douglass ran to the top of the key to take a handoff screen from DeShawn Sims. He got the ball, turned the corner, and his defender went under the screen. In almost every instance, especially for a three-point shooter like Douglass, this is an immediate cue to shoot the ball. Douglass, however, hesitated and didn't take the shot. Instead, he took two steps forward and pulled up for a long two pointer that clanged off the rim. This was the closest Michigan got to a comeback and they never recovered.

That one play speaks to all the ills of Michigan this season: poor shooting, worse decision making, and stagnant offensive play. Douglass' hesitation to shoot an open three because he's afraid of missing, only to take a worse shot (a few feet closer, but it's only worth two points), shows just how out of sync the team is. Darrius Morris, who had a decent night, is clearly not suited to run this offense yet. It's become obvious that he doesn't know quite what to do, and you can see the team physically confused on the offensive side of the court--everything runs through Harris, about whom more later.

I knew the defense was playing poorly, but in the past, the defense hadn't expicitly lost Michigan any games. The defense lost them this one. You know things have been going poorly when 31% (7-22) from three-point range is a marked improvement and isn't the most glaring weakness in your game. The defense was slow and soft, the transition defense was completely nonexistent--watching this game makes me realize just how badly Michigan State is going to beat Michigan with their fast break--and although the 1-3-1 worked at times, it was inconsistent at best.

So at this point, do we close up shop? Yeah, kind of. Barring a miraculous upset against Kansas or UConn, and an 11-7 (or better) run in the Big Ten, Michigan is NIT-bound this year--if that. With the losses they have and the lack of any nonconference resume, it's going to be nearly impossible to get in the dance this year.

Bullets

• Someone needs to yell at this team. Beilein has never struck me as the kind of get-in-your-face coach that will really lay into someone, but I'll be damned if he doesn't need to. This team just looks like they don't care. There's absolutely no effort. At least five times yesterday after a Michigan basket, a Utah player streaked down the court completely untouched for an easy layup. This team just looks like it doesn't care. At all.
• To that end, I would've been happy to see Manny Harris benched for much of that game. He turned it on late and started to lead a comeback, but his atrocious defense and shot selection was the reason Michigan was in that hole to begin with. Hampered by a hamstring injury or not, Harris looks lazy, uninterested, and sometimes downright bad on the court. He gave up constant backcuts and drives to the hoop, took some of the worst shots I've seen in a long time, and just generally seems not to want to play for this team.
• I said after the Big Ten/ACC challenge that Harris had a long way to go but couldn't exactly pinpoint what it was until this game. Despite his full stat sheet, Harris is simply a really good role player forced into the star's spotlight because Michigan lacks one. Sure, triple doubles and gaudy numbers and all that, Harris is kind of an everyman; he's a more talented Zack Novak (or an NBA equivlanet, and a personal favorite of mine, JR Smith--capable of exceptional highs but also "He did what?"-inducing lows), which is great if that's what he's supposed to do. But Harris is supposed to be the leader and the stud of the team. He's not that.
• Sims looked bad, but understandably so. He was playing against someone who had fully seven inches on him, and was forced to play as an outside shooter. When Sims goes to the NBA (through free agency, by the way), he's going to be a small forward. I wish in a game like this, Michigan would've used him a bit more in that NBA small forward role, getting more action out of him: moving him through the lane and getting 15 footers. This would've done a few things, but namely, it would've gotten the 7'3" center away from the basket and opened the floor a bit.
• Zach Gibson started, like I assumed. And Ben Cronin got a few minutes. neither did anything of particular note but did do a decent job containing the big men of Utah.
• Most infuriating part of the game: Free throw shooting.
  

Big Ten/ACC midway + Boston College preview

So the Big Ten/ACC Challenge went exactly as I expected it to yesterday and the conferences sit tied at 3-3. The Penn State win over Virginia on night one looms large now as the slate gets considerably tougher for the Big Ten tonight. At this point, it's a race to three wins, and the Big Ten is favored in all of one or two tonight. But as has been widely discussed, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota all dropped from the rankings this week and are probably all a little better than their loss-scattered records indicate.

The best game of the night is probably going to be Clemson vs. Illinois. Clemson comes in ranked #19 in the country, and Illinois just dropped out of the rankings from #20 after back-to-back losses to Utah and Bradley. I just think that this Illinois team is too deep and takes care of the ball too well to lose to a Clemson team that Michigan knows well from the tournament last year. Clemson will be playing this one at home, but I look for Mike Tisdale to have a big game down low against undersized defenders.

Though Miami may be a sleeper against Minnesota, I think that ultimately, Minnesota is a better all around team and ends up running away with this one sometime in the second half. This and the Ohio State game, which I'm putting firmly in the grip of the Buckeyes, are the two games that I feel most comfortable with the Big Ten chances tonight. And in terms of Duke/Wisconsin, the Badgers have a chance if they're able to bother Duke with their size and rebound effectively. The fact that this one is in Wisconsin will play a big role, and Badger faithful will need to hope that Duke has trouble finding their shot. I think eventually Duke goes on a shooting rampage and hits a bunch of threes in the second half to catch up and beat Wisconsin. Then finally...

Boston College @ Michigan

First a note about basketball previews in general: I probably won't be previewing a whole ton of nonconference basketball games seeing as their umpteen million college basketball teams and I don't know anything about any of them. I don't even really know that much about Boston College, but a yeoman's effort I shall give.

First, you can read more complete previews at UMHoops and MGoBlog.

So as has been widely publicized, BC is missing a whole mess of players and the ones that they have may be forced into quarantine--a team full of Brandon Minors and Junior Heminways. Either way, BC is a good squad and is coming off of a solid road win against Providence. Michigan is coming off back-to-back losses in the Old Spice Classic and returns home after a needed rest (this team simply doesn't perform well on short rest; didn't last year and it's shaping up to be a problem this year already).

But none of that matters. The thing that is going to determine tonight's game is how well Michigan shoots from beyond the arc. They are a dismal 30% on the year and shot only 26% during the Old Spice Classic. In Michigan's one win in the tournament (against Creighton), the team was on track for a loss until Stu Douglass rained in a deep, deep three. And against Alabama, Michigan only lost by two despite shooting 24% (6-25) from 3-point. A lot has been made of the lack of Michigan's defense in the past few days, and while it has looked porous, it hasnt' cost Michigan a game yet. Hopefully coming back to Crisler will cure some of the shooting ills and Michigan will be able to pull out a victory.

Youth and the learning curve

Well that didn't go particularly well, did it? When Michigan was favored to win the Old Spice Classic this weekend, they imploded and bowed out of the tournament a putrid 1-2, with losses to Marquette and Alabama.

There was a lot of hype leading up to the 2009 season but one thing is clear after only five games: Michigan is still going to struggle mightily through one of the most difficult schedules in the country, and arguably the deepest conference in the country. They are a young team full of potential and undeniable stars, but their deficiencies--lack of size, consistency, on the ball defense--are obvious and will be exploited as the season goes on. This isn't to say we should scrap the season and hope 2010 is brighter. But the past weekend was, in a word, discouraging.

It's difficult to be a three-point-shooting team, though, when you're not making three pointers. Michigan had these stretches last year too, where they had trouble making any threes, and this tournament recalled those times, as Michigan shot an ugly 19/72 (26%) from outside the arc. And when you combine that with Michigan's inability to score underneath the bucket and missed dunks and missed layups and missed free throws, well, you come out of tournaments you're expected to win 1-2. But increased consistency and shooting percentage will hopefully come as the younger players adjust to the speed of the game.

The real concerns are the defense and the lack of production from anyone outside of Manny Harris, DeShawn Sims, and the occasional flown-in three from Stu Douglass. When the shots start falling (and all indications from last year are that they will), production shouldn't be a problem. We've seen flashes of greatness from LLP and Matt Vogrich, and Novak and Douglass can both be lights out from time to time. But the defense looks porous and has been easily picked apart. I think a big part of this is having Darius Morris--and occasionally Vogrich--in the lineup. The 1-3-1 zone relies so heavily on rotation and discipline that there's quite a learning curve involved. If one player doesn't rotate in time or is caught out of position, it throws the entire defense off. But we saw it work last season, and these games should not be anything more than a minor blip on your panic radar. The more time the young players spend in the defense, the more effective it will be.

Michigan has two seniors (Sims, Zack Gibson), two juniors (Harris, Anthony Wright), and 12 freshmen/sophomores on their roster. There are obviously going to be some bumps in the road, especially early in the season. On Wednesday, Michigan takes on Boston College at home before getting a bevy of cupcakes/winnable games (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Utah, University of Detroit). From there it gets tough, but Michigan should hopefully have all of the little problems worked out by the time they hit the meat of their schedule.