Darius Morris to the Lakers

Yesterday, I went out for a drink with my girlfriend to meet one of her cousins and her slightly older (well, significantly older) boyfriend. The Houston Rockets had just made the #23 overall pick and it wasn't Darius Morris so, disheartened by the situation, I felt it was OK to step away from the TV. At said social engagement, the fellow seemed nice enough: he had a firm handshake and left his iPhone on the table--like me--checking for updates on the NBA draft. I mentioned that I'm a Michigan fan and Detroit product. He was snooty about this. My interest in Morris came up and I told him that he'd be a perfect fit for the Lakers, to which he responded something along the lines of, "I don't want a Michigan guy. I can understand why you like football: the tradition. But I don't want a Michigan guy." I'm excited to see him at Thanksgiving.

Aside from Morris landing in his home town, there really weren't many situations better suited for him. The Lakers point guard position has been their Achilles heel for the last two years; fast PGs (see Aaron Brooks, Chris Paul, or JJ Barea) have dissected the Lakers defense with regularity. Derek Fisher has become less consistent with the ball, too slow on defense, and even his three point shooting has been in marked decline. Their other options were Steve Blake or forcing Shannon Brown into the role. The Lakers need a point guard.

But more than all of that, Morris' deficiencies (his shooting primarily) is something that won't become an issue for a few years. With Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol consuming 53.6% of the Lakers possessions last year (and Fisher only using 12.7%), Morris won't be asked to do a lot of shooting early on. The Lakers have the players to take and hit shots, but they don't have a legitimate floor general that's looking to create for others. In addition, Morris' size and defensive abilities will allow Kobe to cross match against a lot of teams, saving his energy for the offensive side of the ball.

What Michigan fans want to know is whether or not Morris made the Right Decision. The Wolverine Blog thinks so and I was inclined to say yes prior to the draft, but I'm not entirely sure anymore. Morris lucked into the perfect location and didn't go undrafted a la Manny Harris a year before, but it's clear that the Lakers drafted Morris for a try-out, not necessarily to take the helm of the team. Drafted just five spots after Morris was Andrew Goudelock, a shooterly point guard in keeping with their franchise stalwart Fisher, who Kobe loves dearly. If Morris can make the roster and earn significant minutes in his rookie year, he probably made the right choice. But if he finds himself cut from the team or riding the pine, his increased draft stock after a third year at Michigan (the likes of which would've risen to first-round status) will be a wasted opportunity.

Best of luck to Darius though. Hopefully I'll be able to catch more than a few Lakers game this year and check him out in person.

Darius Morris to enter the NBA draft

In spite of Michigan fans' wishes and scout near-consensus that Darius Morris should spend another year in college, the Wolverine's best player will be headed to the NBA draft and forgoing his final two years at Michigan. First things first: Best of luck to Morris in the NBA. It became clear about halfway through his freshman year that Morris was a special player with NBA-caliber talent. We all knew this day was coming, we just hoped it would come 365 days from now.

To that end, Morris emphatically did things the right way with regard to the process. There wasn't a rift between he and Beilein (or at least one that was ever made public), and his exit was both frugal and professional. He thanked the program, spoke highly of everyone at Michigan, and exited in the fashion in keeping with his on-court persona and talent. Moreover, Morris went about this the right way insofar as retaining his eligibility and maintaining the possibility to return to Michigan. In the end, he made the decision that he thought was best for him.

But was that the right decision? Honestly, I'm inclined to say yes, for a number of different reasons. The first is simple: make that money while you can. If we've learned anything in the last few years, it's that professional sports careers can crumble at the drop of a dime: a bad fall, twist of an ankle, an unfortunate car accident, etc. Morris is a player who has likely aspired to play in the NBA for most of his life and has done all the right things to assure that happens. He deserves to play in the NBA and deserves whatever spoils come his way because of it. It's smart to get in while he can, start making money, and hope that turns into a long and fruitful professional career. Don't fault him for that.

But the difference in money between being a late-first-round/early-second-round selection and a lottery pick--which is where Morris is projected to go, and where scouts think he has a chance to land if he returns to Michigan, respectively--is significant, you say. Sure, but confidence that he'll find himself drafted in that range is probably enough to force his hand. The primary knock against Morris is his shooting ability. Whether or not he's able to improve his shooting over the course of the next season is speculative, and with a solid draft projection in a weak draft class, it's tough to convince anyone to return to college on the off chance that he'll rise a few spots in the draft.

I'm split on what this means for Michigan in the long run though. Obviously the on-court production will suffer next year, but this may be a huge boost for recruiting. One if the knocks against Beilein, in the minds of recruits, is that he can't get them to the League. If Morris goes in the first round, that idea should be thoroughly debunked. Because the D-league Rookie of the Yearing that DeShawn Sims did and the spot minutes Manny Harris saw for the woeful Cavaliers does little to dissuade recruits of this notion. Then again, recruits want success at the college level as much as they want to get to the pros, and if Morris' exit does as much harm as it potentially could, recruits won't even both giving Michigan a look.

Regardless, best of luck to Darius in the draft and the NBA. He's a player whose progress I'll be following intently.

Dancing

John Beilein is not a great recruiter. With the exception of the occasional diamond in the rough (Tim Hardaway Jr., for example) Beilein's recruiting can be generously called pedestrian. Some of that is surely due to the fact that he's a system coach, and it's a system that a lot of kids believe is unable of getting them to the next level. Other factors may be more self-imposed: Beilein is looking for a very specific player, the likes of which aren't typically ranked highly in the national recruiting game. But what Beilein lacks in the recruiting scene, he makes up for by being arguably the best Big Game coach in the country.

If you gave identical sets of players to Beilein and any other coach in the country and gave them a week to prepare before playing one another, the smart money is on Beilein. From the Clemson game in Michigan's last Tourney appearance, to the throttling of Tennessee on Friday, to the two-point loss to the defending national champs yesterday--a game in which Michigan probably gave up an average of three inches at every position--Michigan's efforts in big games are Herculean, in no small part because Beilein just Gets It. Were the rim just a smidge bigger or the refs not so intent on giving Coach Krzyzewski his 900th win yesterday, Michigan could have very well knocked off a team they had no business being on the court with, in no small part because of Beilein.

But after a somewhat miraculous run (that began just moments after I started wondering if Beilein should even be retained next year), Michigan finishes with their second NCAA Tourney win in three years and will return its entire team next year to make, hopefully, a serious run at the Big Ten title. And while last year, when the team began the season ranked a lofty #15 in the country and sputtered under infighting and lofty expectations, next year's team will have the look of one that, on paper at least, has been there before and is ready for the challenge.

Bullets

• Officiating. Ugh. There were more touch fouls called against Michigan against Duke  than I've ever seen in a college basketball game. Jordan Rules applied to the entirety of their roster and the refs were going to be damned if their names didn't go down in Krzyzewski's scrap book as the guys who whistled their way to his 900th win.
• In spite of that, Michigan found a way to keep the game within reach, largely because of the 1-3-1 that they went to late in the second half. They showed the zone earlier in the game and it was duly shredded because the players weren't aggressive enough. For the 1-3-1 to really work, players have to aggressively attack the ball handler and trap whenever possible. In the first half, it was a passive zone that Duke cut up, but in the second half, Duke started running clock too soon and Michigan could attack and trap causing difficult shots.
• Speaking of zones, that's basically all Michigan did against Tennessee on Friday where they showed the world just how bad the Vols are at shooting round orange balls into metal hoops. That was pure annihilation. Kudos to the team for not just winning another Tourney game, but for handing in the biggest trouncing in the history of the 8-9 matchup.
• That runner by Morris. Should. Have. Dropped. The team deserved it.
• Hardaway, while he ended with a decent stat line, seemed nonexistent against Duke until that ice cold three pointer late in the game. Some of his energy was spent covering Kyle Singler on the defensive end, but when Michigan's offense was sputtering, it would've been nice to see him get a few more looks.
• Though Zack Novak may have a limited skillset, dude is money in big games. Shooting 4-6 against Tennessee and 4-9 against Duke from the outside confirms that Novak is Michigan's go-to three point shooter. Stu Douglass, on the other hand, disappeared from sight during the tournament. Getting him back to his long-range shooting form will be essential if Michigan is able to make the proverbial leap.
• The big men all looked good in the tournament. Jordan Morgan was slipping screens all game against Duke and distributing the ball well. Although he ran into the foul trouble in both games (you can hardly blame him against Duke). Evan Smotrycz had probably his best game of the year against Duke. If that's what we can expect all of next year, look out. Jon Horford even got some burn and in his limited time, managed to posterize a Dukie.

To the offseason we go, but this year, there will be less "Are we going to win any games next year?" and more "I can't wait for this team to get back on the court."

MSU: #winning

This is how I watched the Michigan/MSU game on Saturday. Despite recently spending far too much money on a flat-screen LCD TV, I live in a geographically undesirable location to watch Michigan sporting events: aside from the fact that my cable provider doesn't have the Big Ten Network, I'm also well outside the footprint of regional coverage. So out of frustration--both from the inability to see games and lack of use of my shiny new toy--I began researching how I could watch the CBS live stream on my TV.

As it happens, my aging laptop was well prepared enough to come equipped with an HDMI output. And having a next-gen television, I was outfitted with a couple of HMDI cables. What you see above was the result, with sound only emanating from my minuscule laptop speakers (loud enough to hear but tinny and grating). My girlfriend had been studying for most of the game but came to my apartment with about 5 minutes left in the second half. I commented, "Well, it's not in HD, but this looks good enough that I can enjoy it."

Michigan's stat line was pretty typical against MSU: 5-19 from beyond the arc, out-rebounded by 19, and only turned the ball over 6 times in 40 minutes. Despite some recent excellent performances from the three-point line, this is what we've come to expect--and in the future, what we can continue to expect--from this basketball team. Darius Morris is a phenom with the ball and the most improved player year-to-year. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a legit scorer with room to grow and mature. Jordan Morgan has turned into a low-post threat with a bevy of offensive moves. The rest of the team is a bunch of role players that know what they're supposed to do and they generally do so well.

This isn't, however, the team of rangy three-pointer sharp shooters we all expected when Beilein came aboard, which was been my biggest concern in the rocky beginning of the Big Ten schedule. In spite of that, Michigan has found a way to compete with almost everyone and beaten a bunch of teams that, had you asked most fans what the results would be before the year, the consensus would've been blow outs. Last year, the team mostly abandoned Beilein's preferred defensive style, the 1-3-1. This year, in spite of mediocre outside shooting, Michigan has found ways to win inside-out, not really resembling the Beilein teams of old.

This team isn't HD, but they're good enough to enjoy.

Michigan now heads into the Big Ten Tournament ranked fourth in the league after an 8-3 run to end conference play. They're tied with Illinois in the conference as well as overall, and a win over the Illini would almost certainly lock up an NCAA tournament bid. As it stands, Michigan is probably (probably) in anyway with one of those epic "Wait for our name to be called" moments on the horizon. The best news is that the NCAA can't take MSU without also taking us. It feels good to have a win like this over our rivals again.

My reports of John Beilein's death were greatly exaggerated. #tigerblood

Am I too pessimistic about Michigan basketball?

After yesterday's post on the basketball team, a few commenters noted that I was probably too pessimistic about the team and was showing a bias against Beilein. I took exception to that but realized that I hadn't ever fully explained why I was concerned about the direction of the team.

In short, my biggest concern is that Beilein isn't bringing in the kinds of (or level of) players that he needs to make his system successful. The shooters he's recruiting and mentoring aren't turning into the kind of knock down shooters that his style of basketball needs to be consistently good. But since he plays a high variance brand of basketball, you occasionally get games that look a lot closer than they should be against elite teams and a lot worse than they should be against bad teams. The only way to negate this variance is to find consistent performers and stock your team with them. In my opinion, Beilein hasn't done that and doesn't appear to be taking the team in that direction either.

So I decided to take a look at all of Beilein's WVU teams, as well as the last three year of Michigan's squad. I charted all of the players that recorded over 60 three-point attempts throughout the season (an average of about two per game). I then took those numbers and looked at what percentage of the team's three pointers were being taken by those players and what their collective shooting percentage was:

Year	Record	60+ attempts	% 3s from 60+	60+ 3P%	% total shots from 3
WVU 02-03	14-15	P. Beilein (36/105) K. Pittsnogle (49/103) J. Herber (35/92) T. Sally (25/85) D. Schifino (25/83) J. Yeager (20/68)	536/593 (90.3%)	190/536 (35.4%)	593/1577 (37.6%)
WVU 03-04	17-14	J.D. Collins (19/47) P. Beilein (69/170) T. Sally (24/68) K. Pittsnogle (53/144) T. Relph (29/80)	462/656 (70.42%)	175/462 (37.87%)	656/1631 (40.2%)
WVU 04-05	24-11	P. Beilein (70/197) K. Pittsnogle (60/141) T. Sally (48/132) M Gansey (44/127) J. Herber (47/124) F. Young (21/64)	785/885 (88.7%)	290/785 (36.94%)	885/1930 (45.8%)
WVU 05-06	22-11	K. Pittsnogle (91/227) P. Beilein (67/203) M. Gansey (75/175) F. Young (42/134) J. Herber (29/114) J.D. Collins (20/63)	916/967 (94.7%)	324/916 (35.3%)	967/1875 (51.6%)
WVU 06-07	27-9	F. Young (117/270) A. Ruoff (69/205) J. Alexander (40/131) D. Nichols (50/119) D. Butler (39/113) J. Smalligan (31/68)	906/989 (91.6%)	346/906 (38.2%)	989/2011 (49.2%)
Mich 07-08	10–22	D. Sims (43/142) M. Harris (42/132) A. Wright (35/123) K. Grady (33/92) R. Coleman (23/73)	562/731 (76.8%)	176/562 (31.3%)	760/1758 (43.2%)
Mich 08-09	21-14	M. Harris (52/159) S. Douglass (52/155) Z. Novak (52/151) LLP (31/90) K. Grady (30/83) D. Sims (26/82)	720/912 (78.9%)	243/720 (33.7%)	912/1910 (47.7%)
Mich 09-10	15-17	S. Douglass (52/158) M. Harris (48/156) Z. Novak (44/144) LLP (30/103) D. Sims (21/74)	635/760 (83.5%)	195/635 (30.7%)	760/1758 (43.2%)

What you see probably isn't very surprising. Beilein's best team (06-07 West Virginia) saw 91% of their three pointers being taken by six players that were shooting a collective 38%--not to mention that they shot almost 1,000 threes that season. His worst seasons, obviously, are ones in which the majority of the three pointers are coming from a group of players that isn't shooting the ball very well (see: Michigan 09-10).

The more disturbing trend, IMO, is that Michigan's offense through 2009 didn't appear to have the definition that West Virginia's did during his time there. More than one in every five three pointers over the last three seasons has been shot by someone not in Michigan's core group of shooters, implying that Beilein had either given the green light to too many players or the team was just wildly undisciplined (my guess is the former). Much like Beilein abandoned the 1-3-1 last year, it seems that the schemes that made him a commodity at West Virginia were being scrapped for some sort of hybrid system.

This year, however, Hardaway, Novak, Douglass, Smotrycz, Morris, and Vogrich have all taken over 50 shots (about two a game, like above). These six account for alomst all of Michigan's threes--546/576 (94.7%)--and they're shooting at a decent clip, too--197/546 (36.1%)--which looks more like Beilein's better teams in the past and is far more defined that any of his previous Michigan teams.

These are not exactly the numbers I expected going into this process, though. After looking at the success of the 2008-09 season against the statistical breakdown above, the decline last year looks more reasonable: Beilein tried to define his offense in the mold of his previous success but was crippled by horrible shooting. This year, the team's shooting breakdown looks similar to that of previous successful Beilein teams and has some of the shooting to match. Not only does this look sustainable, but it looks like Beilein finally has a plan in place for this team.

I'm still concerned about the collective defense and big-man depth, but if this team can sustain this kind of performance and gain only experience next year, we could potentially see the same success Beilein generated in Morgantown. So while I don't think I was being overly pessimistic/biased, I was uninformed. Which is probably worse.

Reality check: Michigan hoops isn't a tourney lock, this year or next

After Michigan upset MSU on the road, the fanbase started chanting "bub-ble, bub-ble" in unison and waiting for another moment like the one to the right. And even after MSU started its precipitous drop out of the rankings, and is a one-point OT win against Indiana away from a six-game losing streak, the blogsphere is asking whether or not Michigan can still sneak into the NCAA Tournament this year and expecting a tournament berth next year. I'm more reserved about my excitement and have reservations about saying this team is going to make the leap next year. (My own hesitance toward John Beilein has been expressly noted recently, FWIW.)

This year, barring upsets over Wisconsin and Minnesota, Michigan will miss the tournament. When it gets to selection time and ESPN is reviewing every bubble team's resume, they'll arrive at Michigan and it will look like this:

Key wins: at Clemson, at MSU, (I can haz another upset?)
Key losses: vs. UTEP, at Indiana

And if Michigan stays par for the course for the rest of the year--beating the bottom dwellers, losing to the elite teams--their losses are more damning than their wins are redeemable. Michigan is solidly an NIT team, but without beating a ranked opponent, Michigan isn't going to sniff the NCAA.

This of course, turns everyone's eyes toward 2012, much like the end of the 2009 season, when Michigan was supposed to make the next leap. The keywords are Tim Hardaway Jr., a young team, and natural progression, none of which are the kind of givens that everyone wants to think they are.

Tim Hardaway Jr. Hardaway has been the most impressive freshman on Michigan's team this year, showing an ability to get to the bucket with decent, albeit inconsistent, range. MGoBlog describes him thusly:

In the clips above it's not the three-pointers that set hopes to tingle. We've seen Hardaway shoot a ton of threes this year and while he's adding a couple points of shooting percentage to them is encouraging, Michigan has plenty of guys who can take shots from outside the arc. It's the two different drives to the hoop where he glides into the lane and elevates to finish. Yes, you are 6'5". Yes, you are Tim Hardaway's son. Yes, you can turn into the kind of player who's an all-around nightmare. Yes, please, by next year.

Hardaway's skills are impressive, but people are acting like Beilein has never had a player of his ilk before.

Hai, have we not met before?

Hardaway's measurables and stats are remarkably similar to Harris' throughout his career at Michigan:

	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%
Harris 07-08	16.1	4.2	2.7	38.10%	31.80%
Harris 08-09	16.9	6.8	4.4	41.50%	32.70%
Harris 09-10	18.1	6	4.1	42.10%	30.80%
Hardaway 10-11	12	3.8	1.5	37.50%	32.60%

Not that adding Manny Harris to this team wouldn't be beneficial, but Hardaway's production and body type--to say nothing of his predilection to take bad three pointers--are things Beilein has had to play with in the past. With any luck, Hardaway will avoid the general apathy and combativeness with the coaching staff that Harris showed toward the end of his career at Michigan, but regardless, seeing Hardaway turn into an unstoppable force is a little optimistic IMO.

Furthermore, one of the reasons that Harris was able to put up so many points in his junior year was because the offense was primarily run through him. The existence of Darius Morris changes the Harris/Hardaway role significantly. What Michigan needs out of the small forward position is someone who can shoot the three and make good cuts; Hardaway only satisfies one of those requirements.

Brian says on MGoBlog that Michigan has plenty of players to shoot three pointers and isn't concerned with Hardaway's ability to do so at a high level. This is wrong, though. If Michigan wants to get away from playing Zack Novak at the power forward position, it'll mean a lineup of: Morris, Novak, Hardaway, Smotrycz, Morgan. With Morris' limited range and Morgan's presence as a low-post threat, that leaves Novak, Hardaway, and Smotrycz to take the majority of the threes. If Hardaway continues to take bad shots or fails to hit the good ones at a high clip, Michigan's offense could stall.

But they're so young. The biggest source of hope is that Michigan's team is once again one of the youngest in the country. Much like in 2009, Michigan's team is at a serious disadvantage in terms of college experience. This was one of the biggest points of optimism for the 2010 season that ultimately saw the team flame out spectacularly and lose close games in agonizing fashion.

On a player-by-player basis, Stu Douglass and Zack Novak both tanked magnificently during their sophomore years before having their best season's to date as juniors. The rest of that class is either no longer with the program or doesn't see significant playing time. The point being that, though it's a common trend, Michigan's freshmen don't have to morph into superstars next year.

In order to make the leap, though, Michigan will need Morgan, Smotrycz, Jon Horford, and Blake McLimans all to significantly improve their production. Morgan's evolution as a post player seems most likely. He's gotten better as the year has progressed, and his biggest weakness is a general lack of speed and poor footwork. With offseason training, most of this should be settled and we will see Morgan become a consistent threat next year in addition to improved defense (his biggest flaw).

The rest aren't quite as cut and dry. Smotrycz's evolution as a big man three-point shooting terror is probably more important than Morgan's improvement. As noted above, Michigan's starting lineup needs more players that can consistently hit three pointers, and having a big man that can stretch the defense is key to Beilein's offense. Smotrycz's 32/86 mark from outside indicates he might have the skills to get there next year, and if he can, that will truly be when Michigan takes the next step.

Horford and McLimans will also need to improve, though their gains have to come in the weight room first. Michigan's PF/C depth is basically non-existent this year and with no big-man commits yet, the importance of their progression is amplified. If one or both of them can't become quality Big Ten backups, it'll be tough sledding for another undersized Michigan iteration.

Do I think this team can be good? Yes, of course, but there are a lot of variables that are up in the air right now--and God forbid any of the starters or contributors gets injured--that make it hard for me to envision notably more success next year. If the freshmen can all make the proverbial leap and Hardaway can improve his three-point shooting, this team can end up ranked next year. But if Hardaway trends more toward Manny Harris' ball domination and none of the big men improve adequately, we'll have to revisit Beilein's job status.

John Beilein's time is coming

During last year's basketball season, I spent a lot of time talking about Manny Harris and John Beilein, and neither for particularly positive reasons. I had grown tired of Manny's clear indifference toward the team and Beilein's failing strategies. And as we sit through another losing season from the basketball team, it's time to start wondering when Dave Brandon's hammer will come down on Beilein.

During the offseason, I surveyed Michigan's roster and came away with this:

I have long bemoaned the death of the John Beilein-led Wolverines, but I can think of no clearer symbol of, well, utter failure than in his fourth year to have only 1/3 of the team entering the season with any game experience at all, one of whom averaged only 5.5 minutes per game in his freshman season--and let's note that a) Beilein isn't recruiting one-and-dones; b) he didn't necessarily take over a program chocked full of upper classmen; and c) it's not like the team succeeded last year and graduated their talent a la UNC 2009.

As Dylan at UMHoops says, this is a rebuilding year, but is that even acceptable in the fourth year of the program? The four game-experienced players Michigan has returning combined for 30.59% of the team's scoring last year... The rest of Michigan's team now is inexperienced and undersized (mostly), and is going find themselves led by Novak and Douglass as the team's returning "veterans".

I trust Beilein, or at least I'm trying to. He took the team to the Tournament in his second season and should be awarded some sort of leniency for that, but it's difficult not to look at the current state of the program and think it's headed downward. One bad break (Ben Cronin) and one early departure (Manny) should not send an entire program into a tailspin of crippling youth and, let's face it, mediocre players, but they have. If Rich Rodriguez didn't exist, Beilein would be feeling a lot more heat for this, but Michigan will always and forever be a football school. I'm about at the end of my rope with Beilein. If we don't see anything this year, you can expect me to be leading the torch and pitchfork crew into Crisler.

I, like most of the Michigan blogosphere, was pleasantly surprised with the progress the team appeared to make early in the season. Darius Morris was turning into an outstanding point guard, the young players on the team we overachieving, and most surprisingly, Michigan's man-to-man defense was unflappable. But demoralizing losses to Northwestern (by 14) and Indiana (by 19) and it becomes clear that, though Michigan's early success wasn't a mirage, it was largely the function of a weaker schedule.

People will point to close losses to Syracuse, Ohio State, and Purdue as signs of progress, but college basketball is a game that offers a lot of parity--because of a long shot clock and a shortened game, there are less opportunities for both teams to score resulting in lower scoring games and lower differentials. And where there is parity, there are bound to be close games. In Amaker's final year, Michigan had a four-point loss to #1 Ohio State. In the 03-04 season, Michigan had a close loss to a ranked MSU team and a win over #17 NC State. Even Indiana gave Minnesota and Wisconsin runs for their money in the last few weeks.

The point is, close losses to good programs are not something to build your program on. The more telling games are blowouts to UTEP and Indiana. Michigan is still a team that's capable of losing to bad teams on a frequent basis, but that also has the talent to play with (and occasionally upset) a high-ranked team. This is what Beilein has built in his fourth year.

Amaker Players	Beilein Players
CJ Lee	Zack Novak
Anthony Wright	Stu Douglass
David Merritt	Corey Person
Jevohn Shepherd	Laval Lucas-Perry
Eric Puls	Ben Cronin
Zach Gibson	Kelvin Grady
DeShawn Sims
Manny Harris

Others will point to Michigan's tournament appearance as a testament to his skills. However, Beilein got the team there on the backs of Amaker's players (right). It's tough to say argue that Michigan would've been as successful without Novak, Douglass, Grady, and Lucas-Perry (the only real contributors to that team), but the majority of the 2008-09 team's production came from Amaker players. There's obviously something to be said for turning them into a NCAA Tournament team--though Amaker never had Manny Harris on campus--it's also important to note that Beilein's far-and-away most successful season came primarily from another coach's players.

Since that season, and the subsequent graduation/flight of Amaker's players, we've watched the team make a precipitous drop down the Big Ten and once again out of the national spotlight. Beilein has almost completely abandoned the schemes and styles that made him a successful coach to begin with (1-3-1 defense and a three-point shooting offense) because the players he recruited either can't shoot as well as he had hoped or don't understand the defense under which they're playing (or both). So as Michigan plummets toward the bottom of the Big Ten, I have to wonder how much longer people are going to endure at best mediocrity and at worst utter failure.

What Dave Brandon does in the coming months will be interesting. During the Rich Rodriguez debacle, he said that with all coaches, he would wait until the end of the season and judge things accordingly. He then threw his support behind Beilein before the season had started. But if Rodriguez gets the axe after only three years with a roster that's comparably young to the basketball team, you'd have to imagine that Beilein is also seriously on the hot seat. And he doesn't have one of the nation's best offenses (or defenses) to fall back on.

Catching up with Michigan basketball

Last year, I predicted that Michigan basketball was going to be truly abysmal. With the loss of DeShawn Sim and the overrated Manny Harris, Michgan was losing most of its scoring, a lot of its depth, and with it, any hope for the future. I thought this season was going to be when the other shoe finally dropped and people realized that this basketball program was headed nowhere fast.

Fast forward to today, and Michigan has nearly completed its non-conference schedule and is sitting comfortably at 9-2 with a close loss to #10 Syracuse and an embarrassing flop to UTEP. Regardless, this is not the basketball team I expected to see. There are a couple of reasons for this, most prominent of which is the evolution of Darius Morris.

Last year, the only hope I saw for this team was in Morris' play:

I think Morris has arguably the most upside on the team and has the skillset to really run Beilein's system despite the massive deficiencies elsewhere...

I assume Morris' start against Wisconsin is the beginning of the Morris era and we rarely see him start games on the bench for the rest of his time at Michigan. A lot has been made of the fact that he can't really shoot from the outside, to which I say, bullpuckey. I don't want Morris shooting threes anyway. I want him to be a point guard, something that he's increasingly proving he might actually be. I'm exceedingly pessimistic about the 2011 season but that might change as Morris gets more and more playing time and we get to see just how well he can run the offense.

And here:

Next year, when Morris gets a little more confidence and playing time, I think we see him become arguably the most effective and important player on the team. And he's going to have to be, what with the harrowing lack of depth in Michigan's frontcourt.

And what we got this year was basically best-case scenario. Morris is averaging nearly 15 points and 7 assists per game, and is far and away Michigan's most productive and vital player. With Morris--a true point guard--on the court, Michigan's offense looks fluid and aggressive. He finds backdoor cuts and players under the basket, and most importantly, he isn't afraid to take shots. Darius Morris is turning into everything Manny Harris never was, in addition to all of the scoring prowess of Harris:

And when [Harris] does get [to the basket] and is met by two or three defenders, he rarely makes the right play: finding an open teammate for an easy shot. This year has been difficult to pick up assists because, well, Michigan can't hit shots, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't make the right play. This is where Harris As Star really falls apart for me: Stars make their teammates better and Harris rarely does so. I'm not expecting him to run the point because that's not his position, but he doesn't flow with this team, working within their system

The point being, Morris is a significant upgrade over Harris because of his ability to see the floor, his desire to play within the system, and his unselfish play.

But Morris isn't the only reason the team is succeeding. The other major factor is Michigan's punishing man-to-man defense. Though Beilein is known primarily for his 1-3-1 zone, Michigan has played almost all man-to-man this year to resounding results. Per MGoBlog:

Michigan's defense is now Wisconsin's: built on never fouling you, never blocking your shots, never stealing the ball, but forcing you into a wide array of not-very-good shots. Michigan is 10th in three point D, 57th in two point D, 11th in FTA/FGA, 14th in eFG%, and well down the list when it comes to forcing turnovers and getting blocks. Instead of leaving their feet they get in spots to take charges and get their hands in the air.

Michigan's defense has been smothering teams all year. If they keep this up, it won't matter that they can't shoot from three.

Speaking of which, Michigan still sucks at shooting three pointers, despite Beilein's offensive system to this point being a three-point-driven style. Last year, I looked at the statistical significance between 2008-09 team's shooting and last year's. The conlusion:

...we can likely say--albeit not definitively--that the 29.7% three-point shooting performance the team has shown this year is within the team's reasonable capabilities. That is, we can say that the performance this year is quite likely representative of the team's skill and performance given their outcomes last year.

And it's clear at this point that Michigan's shooting woes were not an isolated event. Frankly, the guys who are supposed to be good at shooting threes simply aren't. Of the players that have played significant minutes, only Stu Douglass is shooing threes over a 40% clip. And only two (Matt Vogrich and Evan Smotrycz) are shooting above 30%. Simply put, this team isn't very good at shooting threes.

The rest of the team's success can be attributed to role players Zack Novak and Douglass playing their natural positions and performing to expectations, and some of the younger players stepping up in big moments. Tim Hardaway Jr. is in the process of solidifying himself as a star on this team, averaging 11 PPG and 3.5 RPG. Jordan Morgan is averaging 10 PPG and 7 RPG--despite being an awful, slow post defender. And Smotrycz has shown flashes of brilliance early on even though he's physically unimposing and being forced into early playing time.

What does it mean?
Before the season, I thought Michigan was headed toward the cellar of the Big Ten, below up-and-comers Indiana and the other recent basement dwellers. But with the emergence of Morris and Michigan's unflappable defense, this team could turn into something legitimate. More importantly, the future once against looks bright for Beilein's squad. Whereas at the end of last year, Michigan looked to be digging themselves a hole they wouldn't soon come out of, now Michigan appears to be a young start up, capable of running with any team in the country on a given night.

Other: I'll be keeping a running tab of all the players' stats this year, much like the football ones on the right sidebar. Right now I just have per-game averages, but I might start to include total as well. Let me know if you want to see anything else on there. Here.

2010: The year that wasn't

What we saw last night was not necessarily what could've been for the Michigan basketball team this year; it's not even really reasonable to argue as much as the team shot a nearly 70% eFG%, 42% from three point range, and saw contributions from every player that saw significant minutes (and even some from players who only made a brief cameo). So no, this isn't really a What Could've Been game, but last night was sort of what we all expected, right? An uptick in three-point shooting as our then-freshman became sophomores, consistent and efficient play from the two stars, solid defense that forced turnovers, and an effective offense that looked like it could steamroll the Big Ten. But that's not what happened in 2010, and to add insult to injury, when I woke up this morning and checked SI.com, the above screen shot was on the front page. I was too disappointed to read the article inside.

This season has been a comedy of errors from poor coaching to poor shooting to, well, some of the worst defense in the country. We aren't even asking that the team play every night like they did last night against Minnesota. That's unreasonable, offensive almost. But not only has this team been unable to put together but a few minutes of well-rounded play this season, the likes of which we saw for a whole game last night, but they haven't even been able to string together stretches of competent play. This team has looked out coached, out matched, and out hustled almost this entire season. It was nice that DeShawn Sims, Zack Gibson, and Anthony Wright were sent out proper on Senior Night.

There's not much I can add to last night in terms of critical analysis. The team shot really well and the offense looked smooth and dangerous. I first noted it after the loss to Penn State, but in that game and since, Michigan has been moving Manny Harris around the floor a lot more on offense and I think it's made the team significantly more potent. Manny may be a good scorer, but sooner or later, teams will figure out how to defend the half of the floor he plays from.

A lot of the movement of Harris, however, comes with the development of Darius Morris, who had another great game last night. When Morris is off the floor, this team looks unguided and lost. Morris is able to get into the lane without picking up his dribble and generally makes the right play. When he's off the floor, the ball goes to Harris on the wing on every single possession and the team waits around for him to try and do something.

So now, we get to play probably Iowa in the Big Ten tournament, beat them, and then lose to Ohio State. Which should be fun; another season ended with a loss to conference winning OSU. This is wearing thin. And in terms of next year? Well, a weak recruiting class and the loss of all experienced big men is going to mean another dip in the Big Ten standings. John Beilein sure is lucky RichRod is around. Without him, people might be paying a bit more attention to a basketball team that's quickly headed toward the cellar. But for now, congratulations to the seniors and here's to hoping Michigan can turn this around.

We beat Iowa. WOOOOO

Grit and determination and hard-fought. These are terms sure to be slung about concerning last night's win over lowly Iowa. The Michigan men's basketball team has fallen so far, so quickly, that an overtime win against 9-18 (3-11 Big Ten) Iowa is seen as a confidence building, stepping stone toward mediocrity or better, The Future.

I'm being unfair here. I don't like this basketball team and I want to see it deconstructed as quickly as possible. But then again, I don't like any of my sports teams currently, and seeing as Michigan basketball is the only one I'm currently talking about, it's probably getting the bluntest end of the blunt object I'm smashing my hopes with.

Last night demonstrated a few things though. Primarily, that Michigan's struggles probably aren't solely because of three-point shooting, as had been speculated around the internets all year. Michigan shot a blazing 14-27 (51.9%) from outside in this game, albeit poorly from inside the arc. Regardless, though, Michigan finally shot well from outside but needed a last ditch three-pointer from DeShawn Sims to send the game into overtime for a victory over a bottom-dwelling Big Ten squad.

The other thing we saw last night was that Michigan simply cannot guard the pick and roll, much of this falling on the shoulders of Darius Morris, who I have been quick to praise around these parts. Time and again, Morris wasn't strong enough or quick enough to fight over screens and stay with his man, nor was he quick enough or got enough help to go under the screens. Iowa got tons of good looks and ended up converting many of them, shooting a similarly great 10-22 (45.5%) from outside. Morris will get older and faster and wiser and will hopefully be able to work through this issue in the future, but what concerned me more was that Beilein once again failed to attempt anything aside from man-to-man. With how much the team was struggling with the pick and roll, a 1-3-1 or 2-3 would've kept Iowa on their toes and help nullify the massive advantage they had here, as well as help Zack Novak cover Aaron Fuller who he was clearly incapable of checking all night--Fuller shredded the team for 30 points on 11-13 shooting and 6 offensive rebounds.

So what can we take away from this? Nothing, really. The season is still long-since over. The team's most effective player is still graduating, with the looming possibility that their best scorer will leave early for the NBA. And we saw the brief, fleeting moments of brilliance that we've come to expect the last two years from the likes of LLP, Zach Gibson, and Stu Douglass. Otherwise, we didn't learn anything from this game. I just want this team to be completely reassembled with new parts. Unfortuantely, we're going to have to suffer through at least two more years of extreme mediocrity before we see even a glint of hope.

Good music Friday: Darius Morris edition

I think I've decided to make this a permanent thing in the football offseason, half because our basketball team is awful and I don't want to talk about it for five days in a row, and half because I rarely want to do any work on Fridays period.

But my plea/prediction/whatever for more Darius Morris appears to be happening. Dude turned in one of his best games of the season last night and looks to only be getting better. So this week's edition is dedicated to him in the sense that he's into a drugged out Blue's Clues Steve and spacey southern hip hop:

More Morris kthxbye

This blog has made no secret of its optimism about Darius Morris and his potential elevation into stardom next year. I touched on it a bit on yesterday's podcast, and various other places around this blog, but more or less, I think Morris has arguably the most upside on the team and has the skillset to really run Beilein's system despite the massive deficiencies elsewhere.

It was no surprise then, that he started the game against Wisconsin over the weekend, a game I didn't watch the first half of because, well, why? Dude has been one of the more productive and effective players on the team in the last two games and really looks to be coming into his game. Against Wisconsin and Northwestern, he went 6-9 from the floor, 6-7 from the free throw line, and had a 2.5 assist/turnover ratio. And better yet, those numbers came against two pretty good teams--Wisconsin is a tourny lock and NW is a bubble squad.

I haven't been particularly happy with Beilein this season and have been upset with his lack of recruiting a big man in all the time he's been here. But then he gives us stuff like this, and I remember that he might actually be an intelligent NCAA coach:

Freshman guard Darius Morris started Saturday against Wisconsin because U-M wanted someone who could dribble into the lane and find teammates.

Really? What a novel idea. Why haven't we been doing this all season? Instead, we let Manny Harris run into the lane and try and draw a foul as he charges into four defenders. But Morris' lack of minutes early this season is almost certainly because of his lack of experience as opposed to some random aversion to playing him, but man, at the point when this season started to look like a toss up even--what's the worst that can happen at that point?--I'd have liked to see him in the game instead of the perpetually disappointing LLP.

I assume Morris' start against Wisconsin is the beginning of the Morris era and we rarely see him start games on the bench for the rest of his time at Michigan. A lot has been made of the fact that he can't really shoot from the outside, to which I say, bullpuckey. I don't want Morris shooting threes anyway. I want him to be a point guard, something that he's increasingly proving he might actually be. I'm exceedingly pessimistic about the 2011 season but that might change as Morris gets more and more playing time and we get to see just how well he can run the offense.

Lost

Sometime in the middle of the second half yesterday, when the game looked nearly out of reach, John Beilein sat down on the bench. He just sat there and watched. He watched as Michigan fumbled around with the ball, throwing up errant shots and stumbling through double teams. He didn't look angry or confused. He had the look of a man who understood his fate and new exactly where it was all headed. And as he sat there, content not to coach or attempt a comeback, I couldn't help but get the distinct feeling that sometime in the last month, Beilein lost this team.

Maybe it was the heartbreaking loss to Michigan State. I watched The Journey on the Big Ten Network just before the Northwestern game last night and saw DeShawn Sims say after the MSU loss, "It's like I don't want to play basketball anymore", or something similar. Maybe it was suspending the on-the-court leader Manny Harris for a game for something that I've got on good standing with two people--at least one of who I know is more or less explicitly in the know--was a pretty glaring overreaction on Beilein's behalf. Or maybe it's the disappointment of stumbling from #15 preseason to a paltry 11-11. I don't know where it happened, but I don't think Beilein has control of this team anymore.

More materially, last night was far and away Michigan's worst performance of the season. They managed 22 second-half points, 15 of which came in the last four minutes of the game when both teams had cleared their benches and we basically living at the free throw line. Manny Harris was bad. DeShawn Sims was much worse. The team shot 8-28 from three point land and 32.7% from the floor. They were even outrebounded by the only team in the Big Ten that's as bad at rebounding as they are. A bad basketball team, no doubt about it. And next year only looks to get worse.

As far as personal performances go, Sims turned in one of the more shameful games I've seen lately. He walked around the court for most of the game, allowing NW to get to the bucket with ease. And for most of the game was completely diminutive. Early in the second half, he got the ball on the block, made a really great, quick spin move to get to the bucket, and attempted to throw down arguably the hardest dunk he had all season. The ball fruitlessly splashed out of the basket. That was the last sign of life we saw from Sims. In more positive news, Darius Morris, who I think is going to have to become the most integral part of the team next year, had a pretty good game, going 3-5 from the floor, 4-5 from the free throw line, and adding two assists to only one turnover. I like this kid's game.

What to expect going forward? More of the same, really. This looks like a team that stopped caring. I don't expect any improvement on this or similar performances for the rest of the season. At least Manny is sticking around for another year. I guess that's awesome.

Michigan @ Kansas previ... aw forget it

So, there's basically no way Michigan comes away with a win here, right? Kansas is the consensus #1 in the country and Michigan can't shoot the ball. All you need to look at is point differential:

	Points For	Points Against
Michigan	71.1	63.9
Kansas	90.3	57.7

Holy yikes. Kansas is nearly doubling their opponents score. And given Michigan's struggles on both sides of the floor, there's no evidence to suggest that this is a trend that will reverse itself. And that's not to mention that Kansas is shooting a ridiculous 51.2% from the field and 44.2% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Michigan is only hitting 42.2% of their shots, including 29.7% from the three-point range.

It's difficult to compare this game to the ones against Duke and UCLA early last year because, while Michigan clearly wasn't an established power, they also didn't look completely out of sorts. Nothing Michigan has done this year has inspired any confidence in thinking they can beat Kansas. In fact, nothing they've done has made me think they can come within 20 points of Kansas. But as I've said before, this is college basketball and it's predicated on weird stuff happening

Michigan is going to need strong performances from Sims and Harris if they're going to have any chance in this game. Unfortunately, Sims will be matched up against 6'11" junior center Cole Aldrich. And as we saw numerous times last year and most recently against Utah, when Sims is outsized, he tends to struggle. Expect him to be forced into an outside-shooting role this game with little production down low. If he can't establish his offensive (and defensive, for that matter) presence in the post early--against an experienced center averaging 3.6 blocks per game this year--there's little to no way Michigan wins. That is unless they defy all of their averages this year and decide to shoot 55%+ from three-point land.

The other guy Michigan is really going to have to worry about is freshman super-guard, and former Caliperi commit, Xavier Henry, who is averaging 18 PPG, and shooting over 50% from the field (and over 50% from three-point). This will be up to Manny Harris, who, unless he steps his defensive game up, is going to be thoroughly embarrassed tomorrow by an exceptional athlete.

Michigan isn't explicitly outsized, but they are outmanned, as Kansas has nine players who average more than 10 minutes per game to Michigan's seven. As the game goes on, Michigan is probably going to tire, trying to cover the depth and explosiveness of the Kansas roster. They're going to have to create turnovers to stay in this game, and given Michigan's difficult in the 1-3-1 this year, this is unlikely.

(The problems with the 1-3-1 this year are numerous, but mostly boil down to consistency. Michigan is having trouble trapping the ball high and teams are getting easy passes into the middle of the zone. This causes a convergence of defenders, leaving corner shooters open. Whose fault is this? The guards, basically, and I think a lot of it falls on the shoulders of Darius Morris who hasn't had enough time in the system yet to become comfortable and consistent in it. As time goes on, I think you see the defense become less porous simply because the new players have had more time to really fit into the system and work together.)

So how does Michigan win? Um, they don't. No really, they don't. Unless they can shoot remarkably better than they have all year, the defense finds a way to create turnovers, and the bench steps up big, Michigan has zero chance of winning this one. That or they'll need a complete collapse by Kansas, something that doesn't often happen to consensus #1 teams that are deep and highly talented. If Michigan can keep this close and begins to shoot the ball better, we can consider this game a victory.

Youth and the learning curve

Well that didn't go particularly well, did it? When Michigan was favored to win the Old Spice Classic this weekend, they imploded and bowed out of the tournament a putrid 1-2, with losses to Marquette and Alabama.

There was a lot of hype leading up to the 2009 season but one thing is clear after only five games: Michigan is still going to struggle mightily through one of the most difficult schedules in the country, and arguably the deepest conference in the country. They are a young team full of potential and undeniable stars, but their deficiencies--lack of size, consistency, on the ball defense--are obvious and will be exploited as the season goes on. This isn't to say we should scrap the season and hope 2010 is brighter. But the past weekend was, in a word, discouraging.

It's difficult to be a three-point-shooting team, though, when you're not making three pointers. Michigan had these stretches last year too, where they had trouble making any threes, and this tournament recalled those times, as Michigan shot an ugly 19/72 (26%) from outside the arc. And when you combine that with Michigan's inability to score underneath the bucket and missed dunks and missed layups and missed free throws, well, you come out of tournaments you're expected to win 1-2. But increased consistency and shooting percentage will hopefully come as the younger players adjust to the speed of the game.

The real concerns are the defense and the lack of production from anyone outside of Manny Harris, DeShawn Sims, and the occasional flown-in three from Stu Douglass. When the shots start falling (and all indications from last year are that they will), production shouldn't be a problem. We've seen flashes of greatness from LLP and Matt Vogrich, and Novak and Douglass can both be lights out from time to time. But the defense looks porous and has been easily picked apart. I think a big part of this is having Darius Morris--and occasionally Vogrich--in the lineup. The 1-3-1 zone relies so heavily on rotation and discipline that there's quite a learning curve involved. If one player doesn't rotate in time or is caught out of position, it throws the entire defense off. But we saw it work last season, and these games should not be anything more than a minor blip on your panic radar. The more time the young players spend in the defense, the more effective it will be.

Michigan has two seniors (Sims, Zack Gibson), two juniors (Harris, Anthony Wright), and 12 freshmen/sophomores on their roster. There are obviously going to be some bumps in the road, especially early in the season. On Wednesday, Michigan takes on Boston College at home before getting a bevy of cupcakes/winnable games (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Utah, University of Detroit). From there it gets tough, but Michigan should hopefully have all of the little problems worked out by the time they hit the meat of their schedule.