Expectations against EMU: Offense

Eastern Michigan (2-0) vs. Michigan (2-0) The Big House, Ann Arbor, Michigan Kickoff 12 pm EST Big Ten Network Forecast: Mid 60s

In lieu of a traditional preview, for what are hopefully obvious reasons, I thought it would be more useful to point out some things to watch for on Saturday as well as a few things to expect/hope for.

Offense

Quarterback. Denard has not gotten off to the same blazing start that he did last year. Some of that is due to operating under a new offensive system, but I think more than that, Denard is being asked to make more traditional throws and doesn't have the benefit of teams overcompensating for his legs like he did last year. While some of his struggles can be attributed to the new offensive scheme, applying that logic to his irresponsible jump balls doesn't follow. Denard has been making poor decisions and often throwing inaccurately to the receivers that he does connect with.

While I've been skeptical of Denard in this system for some time now, tomorrow's game will be an interesting test. He should have open receivers and clear passing lanes for most of the game. If we see him throwing behind or beyond his receivers, it will be a sign of bad things to come this year. Denard needs to be throwing between people's numbers with time in the pocket. This should be treated as a practice for Denard to drop back and throw from the I-formation.

As for the backups, Devin Gardner should get snaps. I'll be watching his throwing motion and whether or not he can read defenses, both things he did exceptionally poorly during Michigan's spring game. I'm relatively certain that he'll never see significant playing time at Michigan, but getting him prepped for game time should Denard get injured is crucial. Behind Gardner is true freshman Russell Bellomy. I'd love to see Michigan burn Bellomy's redshirt in this game and get him some action on the field. With one more year of eligibility from Denard followed by Shane Morris' arrival in 2013, Bellomy will likely never be a long-term option, so preserving his eligibility is not really an issue. He could, in my opinion however, supplant Gardner on the depth chart if he shows better fundamentals in the passing game. This is the perfect opportunity for the coaching staff to give him some early burn and see how he handles himself on the field.

I Formation. Despite my desire to never see Michigan play from the I formation, it's clear that it's a priority for Hoke and Borges. And given the team's struggles under center, getting reps against EMU will be crucial. Namely, I'd like to see Denard throw a few traditional running back screens--the likes of which he horribly overthrew against Notre Dame and had intercepted--as well as a few more two-receiver sets for Denard. Getting Denard comfortable with his reads and building his confidence that he can make the throws from the pocket should be beneficial for the rest of the season.

Running backs. Since Michigan shouldn't need Denard to carry them through this game, expect the team to be in the I formation a lot. Hoke recently said he'd like to run more from the I and giving his backs reps against Eastern seems the best way to get them experience. For the most part, we know what Mike Shaw can do. Fitz Toussaint, if healthy, will hopefully get a few reps just to get back in the flow of the offense. Similarly, it would be nice to see Vincent Smith and Stephen Hopkins get some touches.

Mike Cox and the various freshmen still seem relatively far down the depth chart and probably won't challenge for much playing time this year. Cox will get a few carries, but as for the freshmen, I'd rather they redshirt this year than burn it getting a few reps against cupcakes only to sit the bench the rest of the season. I suspect that we'll fruitlessly burn one redshirt against EMU.

Various offensive thoughts. Elsewhere, Martavious Odoms should come in for a lot of playing time in this game. He's been injured and bumped down the depth chart despite being Michigan's most consistent offensive player since Rodriguez's first year. The other receivers should all see spot time, but given the logjam at the position, any playtime they earn will be temporary.

The offensive line will need to make hay against Eastern. They've really struggled this year in Michigan's power running game, so if they can't push around the EMU defensive front, consider that the death knell for any positive rushes coming from the I formation this year.

Oh, and let's maybe try a field goal or two in this game.

2011 Spring Game thoughts

I probably should've had this up earlier, but there were too many playoff games to watch this weekend. So without having rewatched the spring game, here are some general thoughts:

• First, yikes. The offense was on some 2008 ish and it doesn't look like they're anywhere near where they need to be. Watching pulling guards run into other linemen during the I-formation power play was painful. Granted, the offensive line wasn't at full strength, but this could be supremely ugly.
• The defense looked... above average? Without Woolfolk and Floyd, the secondary didn't look like a crater and the defensive line/linebackers all looked OK against the run (the huge exception being Michael Cox's long touchdown run where he bowled over one of Michigan's defenders).
• If the game highlighted anything, it's that Michigan needs a new quarterback. Shocking though it may seem given Denard's production last year and Devin Gardner's upside, but neither of them are going to work in this offense. Michigan will have a new starting QB next year, book it.
• Specific problems with the quarterbacks: Denard had trouble making many of the throws. He still doesn't have much touch, especially on deep balls, and had trouble throwing over the offensive/defensive lines, sailing a lot of passes. Devin, who has the size, still has little or no technique. Watching him fling a 40-yard pass from his off foot was the most Pryor-Armpunt thing I've ever seen him do. Unless the new staff can drastically improve his fundamentals, Gardner won't ever see significant playing time at Michigan, and that's disappointing.
• Your running backs are still just guys that have legs and hold the football when it's given to them. Mike Shaw probably had the best day, making the right reads and getting into space. But even he was unimpressive. The others were all hit or miss with Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stephen Hopkins getting most of the other touches.
• Will Campbell looked like a large man that was able to stand straight up and not move when offensive linemen ran into him. He has zero technique but will be a functional plug for most of the season.
• Other defensive notes: Holy Blitzes. Michigan is going to be aggressive this year on defense, play lots of man coverage (yay!), and throw a lot of different looks at quarterbacks.
• People that impressed: Jake Ryan was as advertised in his recruiting profile: the archetypal linebacker with a nose for the ball. He'll see playing time this year. Carvin Johnson played well at free safety. Tony Anderson held his own against the first team offense, though I suspect he won't see much playing time when Woolfolk and Floyd return.
• Mike Martin: I know he had a pick-6 during practice, but he needs to not be used as a linebacker. I can see literally no benefit to having Martin line up on the outside, standing up, and dropping into coverage. This is worse than using Craig Roh as a linebacker. If you want Martin to take a zone drop from his nose tackle position, fine, but using him how they did in the spring game is a recipe for easy completions.

Later this week, I'll have other content on the spring game. And hopefully, a torrent of the game will be available so that I can do some real analysis. A bit of editorial though:

This is going to be a difficult year. Despite implementing plays for Denard to run the ball, it's clear that Michigan's offense is going to struggle mightily. They're not built for this system and it showed. The offense is going to be similar to 2008 when it was disjointed and the players spent most of the year just trying to figure out the basics. Fortunately, the defense should be able to make up for some of those shortcomings. It's going to be a blitz-heavy defensive front that will put pressure on the opposition to execute. So long as they can tackle well (still yet to be seen), the defense should look a lot like it did under the Carr years: force teams to march down the field and wait for them to make a mistake. With the caveat that this is just the spring game, it's difficult to see Michigan doing more than treading water this year.

2010 Depth Chart thoughts

You're all probably well aware that an unofficial depth chart for Michigan has been released for the UConn game. You can read the whole thing above at MGoBlog, but I'll break down a few of the more interesting personnell notes:

- As we guessed, all three quarterbacks come in as first string QB with the now-familiar "OR" between them. Denard is listed first and will almost certainly take the first snap against UConn, Tate is second, and Gardner is third. There won't be a redshirt for Gardner.
- Stephen Hopkins is listed fifth on the depth chart for running backs. Pegged as one of the big time freshman contributors, I expected Hopkins to be second string at worst. Interestingly, Mike Cox comes in for second-team duty, a pounding back to will probably eat up a lot of the short yardage carries I thought would go to Hopkins.
- Jeremy Gallon is buried on the slot receiver depth chart. Whether or not he ever contributes becomes a question.
- Mark Huyge over Taylor Lewan at starting left tackle. I expect Lewan to come close to overtaking Huyge by year's end.
- The wildly hyped Brandon Graham clone Jibreel Black comes in at second-team DE. This is a good sign. The D-line is almost certainly going to be Michigan's best and deepest unit (team-wide) this year.
- Will Campbell is buried on the NT depth chart, which is really surprising. I thought he looked great in the spring game and was going to be a big impact player this year. He may still be a little out of shape, but expect to see him on goal line stands.
- Mark Moundros is listed as "OR" in the MLB first-team depth chart alongside Obi Ezeh. I bet Moundros takes the first snap against UConn.
- Carvin Johnson shows up as the starter at Spur and Marvin Robinson is behind Kovacs at Bandit. I expect both of these freshmen to make a big impact and in the latter's case, for Robinson to be the starter ahead of Kovacs.
- James Rogers is your CB alongside J.T. Floyd. Ugh.