Yesterday I broke down a QB stretch against EMU that utilized gap blocking and power principles. Specifically, the playside tackle and center both individually pulled to the first gap playside of them. This... well, it didn't work. It took too long for the linemen to pull playside and EMU was able to stretch the play to the boundary where the pursuit defenders could tackle Denard. I concluded with NO MOAR GAP BLOCKING, which isn't entirely accurate. It should have read don't block like this anymore because it totally sucks. Early in the second half, Michigan ran some more basic power runs with Denard in the shotgun that were more effective and, more importantly, set up the blogosphere-coined QB Oh Noes. This is the setup; the Oh Noes will come later today (UPDATE: Part 2).
Michigan just received the ball to begin the 3rd quarter. This is their first play from scrimmage of the second half. Michigan comes out in a three-wide set with Toussaint in the backfield and a tight end on the line of scrimmage. Eastern Michigan is in a basic 4-3.
As the ball is snapped, Mark Huyge's first step is away from the line of scrimmage as he pulls across the formation to the weakside of the field. A pulling lineman is often a key to the opposing linebackers of what direction the play is headed.
Toussaint crosses Denard and fakes a handoff (this was never a zone read). Denard keeps the ball as Huyge pulls across the formation. Ricky Barnum seals the playside DT to the inside while Taylor Lewan punishes EMU's playside defensive end, kicking him out to the sideline and opening a huge hole for Denard to run through.
Huyge is now Denard's lead blocker and about to pancake an EMU linebacker.
EMU linebacker: nullified. Denard has turf and a free safety ahead of him and will pick up eight yards on the play.
All power schemes are not created equal. The one we saw yesterday nullified Denard's most dangerous weapon (his explosiveness) and allowed EMU to stretch the play to the outside. This is a more traditional power play, except that it's run from the shotgun. This is a deadly offense. A defense has to protect against a handoff, zone read, QB keeper (like here), and the threat of a pass, all with power blocking schemes. With the talent of Michigan's linemen, this kind of playcall should be a staple of the offense.
Later today (UPDATE: Part 2), we'll see Al Borges doing his best Rich Rodriguez impression with a QB Oh Noes that unfortunately falls incomplete, but at this stage, it's more important that we see Borges tinkering with his systems and looking for ways to exploit a defense. In any case, this is proof that power running schemes can be effective with Denard in the shotgun.
On designed QB runs against Eastern, Denard was being stopped for little or no gain on more plays than I can ever remember happening in the past. Especially against EMU-level competition, the QB stretches and draws that became a staple of the offense in 2010 were being stopped behind or just beyond the line of scrimmage. One reason for this loss of effectiveness is move from a zone blocking scheme to a gap blocking scheme with pulling linemen.
It's early in the first quarter and Michigan has a 1st and 10 on their first drive. The offense comes out in shotgun with two tight ends and two receivers. Toussaint is lined up to Denard's left. Eastern is in a 4-3 under front with both of their safeties in the box.
As the ball is snapped, the offensive line starts blocking to the left line except David Molk and Taylor Lewan, whose first step is away from the line of scrimmage as they pull around the formation.
A moment later, you can see Lewan and Molk pulling toward the playside as LG Ricky Barnum and playside TE Brandon Moore block the playside DT and DE respectively. Toussaint is headed outside the tackles as a lead blocker.
Lewan and Molk are still running to pull beyond Moore and Barnum respectively. The EMU linebackers are flowing with the play. Denard is looking for a hole to run through but there aren't any.
Yesterday, I diagrammed an Eastern Michigan jet sweep that went for 18 yards because of indecision on Kenny Demens' behalf. Of course, the analysis gods wanted us to see that play again and wanted to give Demens an opportunity to redeem himself.
It's the end of the first quarter and Eastern is driving and in the red zone. They come out in a two-wide set with a tight end on the backside of the play and an H-back and RB on the playside of the field. Michigan is in a 4-3 under formation with Jake Ryan as the EMLOS (hey!). Demens (red) is lined up over Eastern's running back.
Before the ball is snapped, Eastern's wide receiver will sweep across the formation. Like before, Michigan is in zone coverage so no one follows him.
After the snap, the H-back and running back immediately step to their left to block. As Alex Gillett and the wide receiver get to the mesh point, you can see Demens is already taking a step to the playside. In the last instance, Demens is still flat footed at the mesh point.
Here, Demens is looking into the backfield at the ball carrier rather than locking onto Gillett, and following the play. Meanwhile, Thomas Gordon is headed upfield as the contain defender forcing the play back inside (this is key to Michigan's success defending the play).
On Saturday, Eastern Michigan's nominally vaunted rushing offense (racking up big yardage against Howard and Alabama State before playing Michigan) was in full force. They even threw in a wrinkle here and there to positive effect. One such instance was an 18-yard run on a jet sweep that caught Michigan's linebacking corp, specifically Kenny Demens, completely off guard.
It's first and 10 on Eastern's second drive of the game. They had just completed one of three passes for the game and came out in a running formation with a tight end, H-back, and two wide receivers stacked on the strongside. A running back is aligned to QB Alex Gillett's right. (UPDATE: I just realized that EMU is in an unbalanced line here. The left tackle motions to the right side of the line.) Michigan is in a 4-3 under with Kovcas pulled into the box on the strongside of the field and Jake Ryan on the weakside of the line of scrimmage.
Before the ball is snapped, one of Eastern's stacked wide receivers begins to run across the formation. Michigan is in zone coverage and no one follows the EMU receiver.
After the ball is snapped, Michigan rushes its four down linemen and Ryan on the weakside edge. Michigan appears to be in a cover-3 formation with three underneath defenders (Demens, Brandin Hawthorne, and Kovacs). The EMU running back immediately starts running to his right, which is a key to the linebackers that the play is headed in that direction. Even if it isn't, I believe it's Demens' responsibility to cover the weakside under zone.
A moment later and Gillett has handed the ball off. (FWIW, this was not a zone read. It was a direct handoff.) Demens still hasn't moved. Ryan is doing his best to contain the outside but can't compete with Eastern's right tackle tight end.
As EMU's wide receiver begins to turn upfield, Demens hasn't taken more than a step in the direction of the play. Van Bergen is already in pursuit from the backside. Demens is looking into the backfield at Gillett.
At this point, Michigan is in trouble. Ryan is being tossed to the ground by the EMU right tackle tight end while the ball carrier and running back hit the edge with only Troy Woofolk between them and the endzone. Demens still isn't charging after the play.
The ball carrier cuts upfield beyond his blocker where Woolfolk takes an angle to push him back inside. If this was an option play, a pitch to the running back here would be an easy six points for EMU.
Demens will take a terrible angle here and get bailed out by Thomas Gordon playing free safety and Hawthorne who has come from the strongside of the field to make the tackle.
Not to pick on Demens too much, but this continues a disturbingtrend in which he struggles when tasked to move sideline to sideline, whether in coverage or here in run support. Last year, Demens was caught staring into the backfield on a few passing downs and blew his coverage (though he remedied that issue a few games later). But even this year against Notre Dame, Demens forgot his assignment and the Irish were able to easily throw a slant route.
Here, Demens fails to recognize the play until it's far too late. In fact, he barely recognizes the play at all. But probably more bothersome is that he doesn't appear to know where his support is on this play. With Kovacs in the box on the strongside of the field and Hawthorne next to him, Demens needs to start moving once the wide receiver sweeps across the formation. If Ryan were dropping into coverage instead of rushing, Demens wouldn't have that outside responsibility, but with Ryan rushing, that leaves on Woolfolk to cover against a ball carrier and blocker.
When attacking downhill, Demens is decisive and hits gaps with force, but when you ask him to cover across the field, he's shown a tendency to make mental errors and struggle with his decision making. And though he appears to learn from those mistakes, that he keeps making them is problematic. He can't continue to blow his coverage this badly if Michigan's defense is going to consistently stop drives.
I can still remember the final pass of Michigan's season opening 2008 defeat to Utah in vivid detail. Despite a putrid all-around performance from the offense, Michigan still had a chance. Down by only two points with a little over two minutes to go, Michigan received the ball with the opportunity to drive for a final touchdown or field goal and seal an unlikely, and mostly undeserved, victory. On fourth and seven, Steven Threet hurled a ball 10 feet over the head of Darryl Stonum and out of bounds. The game was effectively over, but more importantly, I remember the distinct sense of doom that fell over me and everyone else watching the game once the offense limped to the sideline.
On Saturday, Michigan won, and if you only look at the box score, won in convincing fashion, hammering Eastern Michigan to the tune of 31-3. But for anyone who watched the game, things were not so peachy. Michigan gained a total of 32 (!) yards in the first quarter, went three and out three times during the game, and showed an offense that looked as dysfunctional as it did unsustainable. It wasn't until the second half when Al Borges decided to let Denard Robinson loose on QB draws that the offense began to resemble a functional unit.
After a 7/18, 95 yard (5.3 YPA) day against a MAC bottom dweller, it's difficult to see Denard Robinson as a sustainable option at quarterback in Borges' offense. It may sound reactionary, but after another game riddled with poor decisions (chucking the ball into double coverage) and spotty accuracy, and against competition that shouldn't be able to compete with Michigan's athletes, it's clear that Denard's struggles in the passing game last year, his uninspiring spring game, and his poor passing performances against Notre Dame and Western Michigan are no flukes. He locks onto receivers, struggles with his accuracy, and frequently makes near backbreaking decisions.
There is a silver lining though. Had Rich Rodriguez brought back Mike DeBord to coach the 2008 offense, it still would have been terrible. With this team, there are options. When Borges did unleash Denard, he ran wild, as he (and everyone else on the team) should have against a hodgepodge of JUCOs and lower-level MAC players. If Borges is smart, and I think that he is, this game will be a clear indication that in order to move the ball, Denard's legs will have to bear the brunt of the load. Not only could Denard run against Eastern, but his legs once again opened up the QB draw play action that was used to devastating effect last year.
It's not that Denard can't be a great college quarterback. Last year proved that he can. It's that he can't be a great quarterback in a pass-first, I-formation offense. If Borges and Hoke know what's good for them, they'll start tailoring the offense around Denard's legs now to avoid a catastrophic meltdown as the season progresses.
Bullets
Though I wanted to see the I-formation in this game, after watching Michigan's linemen struggle with blocking and running backs fail to hit the proper holes, consider this my vote to have the I-formation banned from the playbook for the rest of the year. There are just far too many fundamental problems with how the team runs it currently, that it's not something they should be utilizing in games yet.
Eastern Michigan averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 46 carries which is really bad, but I wouldn't read too much into it. Greg Mattison seemed to play the game in the most vanilla fashion imaginable. There was very little blitzing and the team spent most of the game in a Ron English-like defense. This does, however, go further to explaining why Michigan struggles so mightily to open games without blitzing: they're terrible in zone coverage and struggle stuffing the line of scrimmage without added pressure from the linebackers and safeties.
I assumed the offense would fruitlessly burn the redshirt of one of their freshman running backs and lo and behold, Thomas Rawls got two carries and looked like a true freshman. This is an utter waste with three to four established running backs higher on the depth chart.
Devin Gardner desperately needed more than one garbage time possession. With Denard's early-season struggles, there's a good chance he'll be needed (regardless of injury to Denard) later this year. I remain unimpressed by his performances to date and would've liked to see him get more time to develop in the system.
Craig Roh had a decent game and seemed to outperform Jibreel Black, who is currently fighting for the starting role. Roh had one sack and seemed marginally more effective than Black who was often chasing, and being outrun by, EMU running backs.
Other insights gleaned from the rest of the game are hit or miss. EMU rarely threw the ball, so the secondary wasn't tested. The defensive line saw a lot of rotation, though we already knew the backups were a noticeable step back. And none of the running backs really impressed.
Next week, Michigan takes on Hoke's old stomping ground San Diego State. Chances are this is when Michigan will start using Denard in running situations more consistently and tailoring the offense around him. If not, this is going to be a long year.
Eastern Michigan (2-0) vs. Michigan (2-0) The Big House, Ann Arbor, Michigan Kickoff 12 pm EST Big Ten Network Forecast: Mid 60s
In lieu of a traditional preview, for what are hopefully obvious reasons, I thought it would be more useful to point out some things to watch for on Saturday as well as a few things to expect/hope for.
Offense
Quarterback. Denard has not gotten off to the same blazing start that he did last year. Some of that is due to operating under a new offensive system, but I think more than that, Denard is being asked to make more traditional throws and doesn't have the benefit of teams overcompensating for his legs like he did last year. While some of his struggles can be attributed to the new offensive scheme, applying that logic to his irresponsible jump balls doesn't follow. Denard has been making poor decisions and often throwing inaccurately to the receivers that he does connect with.
While I've been skepticalof Denard in this system for some time now, tomorrow's game will be an interesting test. He should have open receivers and clear passing lanes for most of the game. If we see him throwing behind or beyond his receivers, it will be a sign of bad things to come this year. Denard needs to be throwing between people's numbers with time in the pocket. This should be treated as a practice for Denard to drop back and throw from the I-formation.
As for the backups, Devin Gardner should get snaps. I'll be watching his throwing motion and whether or not he can read defenses, both things he did exceptionally poorly during Michigan's spring game. I'm relatively certain that he'll never see significant playing time at Michigan, but getting him prepped for game time should Denard get injured is crucial. Behind Gardner is true freshman Russell Bellomy. I'd love to see Michigan burn Bellomy's redshirt in this game and get him some action on the field. With one more year of eligibility from Denard followed by Shane Morris' arrival in 2013, Bellomy will likely never be a long-term option, so preserving his eligibility is not really an issue. He could, in my opinion however, supplant Gardner on the depth chart if he shows better fundamentals in the passing game. This is the perfect opportunity for the coaching staff to give him some early burn and see how he handles himself on the field.
I Formation. Despite my desire to never see Michigan play from
the I formation, it's clear that it's a priority for Hoke and Borges.
And given the team's struggles under center, getting reps against EMU
will be crucial. Namely, I'd like to see Denard throw a few traditional
running back screens--the likes of which he horribly overthrew against
Notre Dame and had intercepted--as well as a few more two-receiver sets
for Denard. Getting Denard comfortable with his reads and building his confidence
that he can make the throws from the pocket should be beneficial for
the rest of the season.
Running backs. Since Michigan shouldn't need Denard to carry them through this game, expect the team to be in the I formation a lot. Hoke recently said he'd like to run more from the I and giving his backs reps against Eastern seems the best way to get them experience. For the most part, we know what Mike Shaw can do. Fitz Toussaint, if healthy, will hopefully get a few reps just to get back in the flow of the offense. Similarly, it would be nice to see Vincent Smith and Stephen Hopkins get some touches.
Mike Cox and the various freshmen still seem relatively far down the depth chart and probably won't challenge for much playing time this year. Cox will get a few carries, but as for the freshmen, I'd rather they redshirt this year than burn it getting a few reps against cupcakes only to sit the bench the rest of the season. I suspect that we'll fruitlessly burn one redshirt against EMU.
Various offensive thoughts. Elsewhere, Martavious Odoms should come in for a lot of playing time in this game. He's been injured and bumped down the depth chart despite being Michigan's most consistent offensive player since Rodriguez's first year. The other receivers should all see spot time, but given the logjam at the position, any playtime they earn will be temporary.
The offensive line will need to make hay against Eastern. They've really struggled this year in Michigan's power running game, so if they can't push around the EMU defensive front, consider that the death knell for any positive rushes coming from the I formation this year.
Oh, and let's maybe try a field goal or two in this game.
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