Why Michigan struggles against rollouts

After the UMass game, I got on Greg Robinson's case because he more or less allowed UMass run a quarterback rollout pass at will on the defense. What I couldn't understand was a) why he didn't ever change his scheme to counter the play and b) why Michigan's defenders couldn't figure it out on their own; a basic zone coverage scheme is not susceptible to a rollout on every play, you'd imagine. Bowling Green obviously watched the UMass film and saw the same thing, going to a rollout a number of times in the game. Below is one example of what usually goes wrong, and something that hopefully they can fix. (For the record, the man coverage nickel package that I'm oh-so happy with will mitigate a lot of these issues if it's called at the right time.)

Michigan is in their typical 3-3-5 stack against a trips look for Bowling Green. Michigan is going to rush their three down linemen as well as Craig Roh from his linebacker spot (the stand up defender on the line of scrimmage). They will drop the other seven players into zone coverage. Bowling Green has called a designed roll out to the strong side of the field.

After the snap, you can see the Michigan rush as well as the zone coverage. Michigan will drop into a cover-2 look here with JT Floyd playing the deep weakside of the field and James Rogers (top of the screen) playing the deep strongside of the field. The linebackers, Cam Gordon, and Jordan Kovacs will all drop into underneath zones.

This is where the trouble starts on the play. Highlighted in red is James Rogers whose job it is not to get beaten deep. With three Bowling Green defenders streaking downfield (the third receiver is partially cut off at the top of the screen), Rogers starts heading deep. Highlighted in blue is Cameron Gordon. As the widest underneath defender, it's Gordon's job to defend the boundary. Kevin Leach is the playside linebacker and is between Bowling Green's two inside receivers. Ezeh is trying to get over to the playside of the field to defend. Since he's not there yet, Michigan essentially has two defenders (Gordon and Leach) against three receivers.

With Rogers deep and Ezeh still getting over to that side of the field, Gordon and Leach are covering the two inside receivers. The third receiver, whose foot is highlighted in red at the top of the screen, has recognized Michigan's coverage and is going to sit down in a vacated zone seven yards from the line of scrimmage. I'm not entirely sure who's at fault here: Ezeh for not getting over soon enough, forcing Leach to carry the inside receiver through his zone, or Gordon for not playing wide enough of a zone to attack the outside receiver. Either way, he's wide open. Bowling Green's quaterback sees it and throws:

The ball is highlighted in red and is headed toward the outside receiver who has about 10 yards of space between he and Gordon. Rogers still has coverage over the top, so that's definitely not his responsibility. Michigan has three players (Gordon, Leach, and Ezeh) within five yards of one another when the ball is released.

When the receiver catches the ball, Gordon is still three to five yards away from him. Leach and Ezeh are in pursuit but it feels like Gordon was out of position on this play. Otherwise, Ezeh and Leach would be further behind him. Gordon eventually makes the tackle but only after an easy seven yards for Bowling Green.

As I said above, I don't really know whose at fault here. It's definitely not Rogers who was playing the deep half of the field. I'm inclined to say it was Gordon's fault for not covering the boundary, but then again, Ezeh's late rotation (not entirely his fault, he got off the snap quickly and just had a lot of ground to cover) seemed to necessitate Leach covering the inside receiver through his zone and Gordon shading over to the middle receiver. UMass torched Michigan on this same play repeatedly and I have no doubt that other teams will as well. And as Michigan faces more talented quarterbacks through the Big Ten schedule, this looks to be the team's Achilles' heel.

The nickel package that Greg Robinson debuted in the Bowling Green game is one way to remedy this problem. Without gaping holes in the zone coverage, Bowling Green doesn't get this easy completion. Having man coverage here probably necessitates three vertical routes with two over-the-top defenders in Floyd and Rogers. I'd prefer this over pitch-and-catch completions, but Robinson is probably worried about the deep ball more. This is bend don't break football.

Bowling Green: What to hope for recap

The Bowling Green game was Michigan's last real cupcake opponent on the schedule and as such, they had the ability to try out a few new things and get younger players some game experience. I laid out what I was hoping to see last week and I figured it would be good to follow up to see how it all went down.

• Most importantly for me (and probably most Michigan fans) was seeing playing time for the freshmen cornerbacks (Cullen Christian, Courtney Avery, and Terrence Talbott). Michigan got them all into the game and in the case of the latter two, they saw a significant amount of snaps. Avery and Talbott were both part of a nickel package that Michigan implemented frequently on passing downs. So not only was Michigan able to get playing experience for some of their young need-to-be-contributors, but they also debuted a man coverage nickel package that I had been begging for. Christian's performance was a little disappointing. He got beat a few times in coverage, though Bowling Green's quarterbacks weren't able to exploit it. One time in particular, Christian tried playing bump and run coverage when standing five yards off the line of scrimmage. It ended in a blown coverage, but it was a good learned experience. On the next play, Christian was in far better position and was able to jam his receiver at the line.
• Snaps for Devin Gardner was probably the next most critical goal of the Bowling Green game. After Denard went down early, Gardner came into the game and closed out the first quarter, as well as played a little time in the second before being replaced by Tate Forcier. Gardner was, in a word, inconsistent. He had a few very nice throws downfield (about more which later) but struggled mightily on the zone read and looked overmatched occasionally. Once, he even reverted to that hideous sidearm throwing motion he uses when he's pressured. I was hoping that Forcier would play the third quarter and Gardner would be afforded the entire fourth quarter, but instead Forcier played at least one whole possession in the fourth, taking away a good number of snaps from Gardner. Then again, Forcier is clearly the team's #2 quarterback right now, so getting him more snaps is not altogether bad.
• The defense looked improved albeit against significantly worse competition. I'm still far more pessimistic about this team's chances because of the defense than most around the Michigan blogosphere. While a lot of people are recalibrating preseason expectations up to 8-4 or 9-3 (the former, how I predicted the team would finish before the season), I'm actually being a little more hesitant and looking at 7-5. I hope I'm wrong. Regardless, the defense looked improved, got a number of sacks, and had a few nice pass break ups, one of which came on a quick slant that was defended expertly by Courtney Avery.
• As mentioned above, Michigan took a few shots downfield. I knew that Bowling Green was a team that Michigan wouldn't struggle to move the ball against, so taking a few gambles down the field and potentially throwing away plays wasn't something Michigan really had to worry about. Gardner proved he's probably the best downfield passer on the team by throwing two perfectly thrown deep shots. Denard didn't really have a chance to go downfield, and Forcier's only long ball was an underthrown lob because of a scramble (that ended amicably in a defensive pass interference call). In any case, you can see Rodriguez sending outside receivers on fly routes down the sideline in an effort to keep defenses honest. This will be a big advantage in the future.

Those are really the main things I identified before the game. I was happy to see Will Campbell get some snaps in the game because he's someone who I've been advocating gets more playing time this season. If Michigan goes to more four-man defensive lines, I'd like to see him on the field more. And seeing Drew Dileo take back a few punts was a nice introduction to his skillset. In the end, the Bowling Green game is a tough one to pull many negatives out of.

Denard touchdown run

Ed. note: Sorry about the delay. I officially have internet again and can function properly. But on with the show.

You probably all remember the 47-yard Denard touchdown run early in the Bowling Green game, but there were a few interesting things that happened that you may have missed.

It's third and one early in the first quarter. Michigan is lined up in a max protect set with two tight ends in the game. This is a quarterback draw all the way. Bowling Green is in a 4-3 defensive front.

After the snap, Denard starts running left on the QB draw. (More after the jump)

Bowling Green: Where a QB is a QB

Despite all of the horror of the 2009 Big Ten schedule and the relative uncertainty of the 2010 team, the last 16 games have done at least one thing: They have effectively demolished the memory of 2008's offensive ineptitude. No longer is the team having trouble finding a quarterback who can complete a pass, run the zone read, or having trouble getting the offensive line to know their blocking assignments. If the first four games of this season have proved anything it's that the offense has arrived. And it's more than just having the right players. The schemes are exact, the players know what they're supposed to do, and it is unquestionably lethal.

Caveats about Bowling Green's talent level aside, as a team, Michigan completed 23 of 26 passes for 255 yards (9.8 YPA), with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Almost more impressively, nine different players carried the ball for a total of 466 yards on 56 carries (8.3 YPC) and combined for 7 rushing touchdowns. The point is, Michigan has weapons. This will be the most effective Michigan offense of recent memory--there's really no debate about that anymore.

The real question heading into the Bowling Green game was the defense and how they would bounce back from a 2009-like performance against UMass. They responded... adequately. Despite the television commentators harping on Michigan's defensive troubles in the game, Bowling Green ended the game with 283 total yards, 71 of which came on a screen play that ended in a touchdown because of some bad tackling and poorer angles. They completely shut down Bowling Green's ground attack, which was promising. However, BG's backup and third-string quarterbacks were able to rack up a fair amount of yards through the air, despite not being particularly efficient (19-31 with 2 interceptions).

What all of this means for the rest of 2010 is still up in the air. The defense still looks really shaky and may cost Michigan a game or two that they should realistically win (I'm looking at you, Indiana). Otherwise, the offense looks good enough that winning shootouts shouldn't be a problem.

Bullets

• Obviously, a tip of the hat goes to Tate Forcier for his performance. After all of the drama involving Forcier this year, he stepped up and proved that he's still a legitimate threat in this offense. In fact, his performance may have solidified him as #2 on the depth chart. But we'll worry about that if Denard ever gets seriously injured (knocks on wood).
• Speaking of QB depth chartin: Does anyone else think that Devin Gardner is severely lacking in speed? Obviously it's hard to compare him to Denard, but Gardner looks slow and lumbering in the backfield. He appears to have very little in the way of acceleration, and I'm starting to get concerned about his viability as a runner. He moves well, but this offense works best with a home run threat runner. Gardner does not look to be it.
• Speaking of not a home run threat: Fitzgerald Toussaint. I really wanted to see Toussaint get a few carries in the game and while he proved himself to be productive (66 yards on two carries), getting caught from behind, and convincingly so, by a Bowling Green defender on his 61 yard carry was not encouraging. For someone who was being heralded as the next great Michigan running back, that was not a great introduction.
• Will Campbell looked nigh unblockable on the goal line. I continue to push for more playing time for him.
• It was good to see Terrence Talbott, Courtney Avery, and Cullen Christian get a lot of snaps during the game. The other encouraging sign was that Greg Robinson called a lot of man coverage. It returned mixed results, but the fact that he recognized the issues with the defensive zones is encouraging.