Where are they now?: The 2010 offense

After seven games, Michigan sits at 5-2 with losses to Iowa and Michigan State that rank somewhere between disappointing to soul crushing. Denard Robinson went from Heisman front runner to footnote. And Michigan's defense is quickly proving to be even more inept than last year, although with the attrition and God-hates-us loss of Troy Woolfolk before the season, this could be expected. Now it's time to take a look at how the team is performing as a whole through the first seven games of the year and where that puts them for the rest of the season. First up, the offense:

Quarterbacks. Denard Robinson has planted himself firmly in the starting position with his other-worldly performance early in the year and his promising, albeit mistake prone games against Iowa and Michigan State. When Denard has been on his game, he's more or less single-handedly carried Michigan to victory. Unfortunately, he's been sporadic of late. When Denard has been out of the game, Tate Forcier has relieved him to resounding effect. Which is to say that Michigan finally has depth at the most important position on the field. Behind Forcier, we've seen brief, unimpressive appearances from true freshman Devin Gardner. Gardner now has some injury concerns and may be able to apply for a medical redshirt which would be best for all parties involved.

Denard still has a lot of work to do. His recent plague of interceptions in the last two games show his infancy in the passing game and will present problems going forward against defenses like Wisconsin and Ohio State. So while Denard has shown he can lead Michigan to extraordinary heights, he also presents the same problem that Michigan encountered last year: You live by the Focie... Shoelace, you die by the Shoelace.

Running backs. Michigan's running backs have been, in a word, unimpressive. This blog projected that Vincent Smith was going to come into the season as the starter, but an off-season ACL surgery put him behind the 8-ball. Mike Shaw has been the nominal starter and has fluctuated between mediocre and pretty good. Smith, meanwhile, hasn't shown much aside from showing a few flashes of Mike Hart-itude.

On the more positive side, Stephen Hopkins has come on in the last two games and shown that he's more than just a short yardage back. Hopkins provides the size that Michigan's other backs can't, but more impressively, he's shown unexpected quickness and good lateral movement. If Hopkins continues to improve the way he projects to, he could be Michigan's starter next year (alongside recent verbal commit Demetrius Hart, who looks to make an immediate impact on a lackluster backfield).

Wide receivers/Tight ends. This could look identical to the running backs section above. Michigan has a bunch of Big Ten average wide receivers that all get the job done. Roy Roundtree, as expected, has been the most targeted receiver of the year, as he was at the tail end of 2009. Darryl Stonum has also improved from his sporadic 2009 season and become a consistent threat. The most encouraging sign in recent weeks, however, has been the emergence of injury-plagued Junior Hemingway. After recovering from yet another injury, Hemingway has proven that he's the most consistent downfield threat for Michigan and might have the best hands on the team.

In less encouraging news, frequent workhorse Martavious Odoms broke his foot and will be out for most, if not all of the season. And Michigan's other receivers (Kelvin Grady, Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, Je'Ron Stokes) have made very little impact.

Michigan's tight ends have been largely removed from the passing game and have been used more in the H-back, linebacker-clubbing role. Kevin Koger and Martell Webb have both become some of Michigan's more effective downfield blockers and are vital in Michigan's short-yardage package. This isn't much of a let down as Michigan's offense has enough weapons without them, and they've both been performing exceedingly well in the running game.

Offensive line. Aside from Denard's early-season emergence as a Heisman hopeful, Michigan's offensive line has been the most encouraging part of the year. Though they've shown flaws in the last two weeks (primarily issues with stunting defensive linemen and some pass protection issues), the O-line has solidified themselves as possibly the best unit in the Big Ten. Redshirt freshman Taylor Lewan's emergence as a force at left tackle is a huge win for the future of the program. Meanwhile, the healthy return of David Molk has been a godsend (despite, ya know, his injury against Iowa). Steven Schilling was talked up by most media outlets before the season, but he has been thoroughly just-OK. Patrick Omameh has shown some pass-protection problems, but is unstoppable in the run game. And Perry Dorrestein has been unremarkable, meant in the most flattering way.

What does it mean for the future?
Michigan's offense is in line to be arguably the best in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country. With the health of Denard, however, goes the health of the offense. Despite Forcier's ability to move Michigan up and down the field against quality opponents, Denard is the electricity that makes it run.

Surrounding Denard is now a squad that not only has good starters but often equally as good backups. In two years, the offensive line went from one of the team's biggest liabilities to one of its biggest strengths. And at the other skill positions, Denard has playmakers that can do just enough to make this team truly dangerous. However, the lack of a game changer at either the wide receiver or running back position is going to hurt the team down the stretch.

Next year, Michigan is going to return almost everyone on the offense (the joys of having a young team) save a few offensive linemen whose backups are firmly entrenched and have shown promising upside. Long gone are the days of the Nick Sheridan/Steven Threet monster that made the future of the program looks hopeless. If nothing else, Rich Rodriguez has turned Michigan's offense into the relative juggernaut everyone expected when he arrived in Ann Arbor, and has the team poised to get stronger on that side of the ball in the coming years.

Up tomorrow: The 2010 defense

Notre Dame and snap counts

Ed. note: In lieu of a UMass preview, something that, unless something awful happens, should be useless, I wanted to do a little breakdown of Notre Dame's defensive line shift that was effective because of Michigan's predictable snap count. For a comprehensive UMass preview, visit MGoBlog.

I mentioned in Wednesday's Good Idea, Bad Idea post that Michigan is continuing to use a predictable snap count. When I was watching the game live, I saw Notre Dame shifting their defensive front right before Michigan snapped the ball, and finally found some video of comparable plays that shows that it may actually be more detrimental to the team's blocking schemes and production--aside from the obvious: allowing defensive teams to time blitzes--than originally thought. First up is a play in which Notre Dame uses the defensive front they originally showed:

Here, Michigan is set up with Denard in the shotgun and Michael Shaw to his right. They're using an H-back (Martell Webb) in this formation. Notre Dame is in the 4-3 base set that they had shown for most of the game. This will eventually be a passing play, but the important thing to watch is the blocking of the offensive line.

After the snap, Denard rolls to his right. David Molk and Patrick Omameh double team the strongside defensive tackle. Perry Dorrestein has one-on-one blocking against the strongside defensive end. Mark Huyge is charged with blocking the weakside defensive tackle and Steve Schilling is being given a free release into the second level. Martell Webb is supposed to get to the second level and block one of Notre Dame's corner backs as this will eventually be a counter screen pass to the weakside of the field. The weakside defensive end is unblocked.

Regardless of how this play ends, you can see that the offensive line is tied up with their appropriate defensive players. Huyge has passed the weakside defensive tackle to Schilling and is releasing to help block on the screen pass. Omameh and Molk are still driving back one of Notre Dame's defensive tackles. How the play ends is beside the point (it ends poorly, for the record). But you can see that there's order. All of the offensive linemen know where they're supposed to be and who they're supposed to block.

In the next play, Michigan is in the same formation and, at least initially, Notre Dame is in the same defensive formation. But because of Michigan's predictable snap count, Notre Dame was able to change their defensive front just before the snap and confuse the offensive line.

Here you can see that Michigan is in the same alignment they are above. Denard is in the shotgun with Michael Shaw to his right. Martell Webb is in as an H-back. Notre Dame is showing the same 4-3 defensive front. But because they're able to time Michigan's snap, the defensive line shifts from a 4-3 to a 3-4, changing all of the blocking schemes for the offensive line:

As you can see now, Notre Dame has shifted into a 3-4 front with the weakside defensive end becoming a stand-up linebacker, and the rest of the defensive line shifting over so that now they have a nose tackle and two defensive ends. Worse still is that all of this happens with Molk's head down, waiting to snap the ball; when he picks his head up, he'll be greeted with a completely different defensive front.

Because this is a different play than the above example (this is a designed QB run), there will be some differences in how it plays out. But the important thing to watch is the offensive line. If Notre Dame was in a 4-3 front still, Molk would've reach blocked the strongside defensive tackle with Omameh, Dorrestein would've seal blocked the defensive end, and Michael Shaw would block the playside linebacker. Instead, Molk goes for a reach block on the defensive end who has taken place of the defensive tackle. Omameh looks to double team the defensive end and Dorrestein, who was able to see the changing blocking schemes, also hits the defensive end and then releases to the second level.  Long story short, there are three linemen blocking a single defensive end. The nose tackle is being left unblocked by the front line and is now the responsibility of Webb, who is supposed to release to the second level to block one of the middle linebackers (about more which later).

The next thing you see is utter chaos. Molk and Omameh and still tied up double teaming the defensive end. Dorrestein and Schilling have released to the second level to block linebackers, and Huyge is tied up with the weakside defensive end. Shaw is locked up with the playside linebacker. The nose tackle is going completely unblocked and is able to, along with the playside middle linebacker, keep contain on Denard and force him back into the defensive help.

More chaos. Denard has no where to go and is being forced back into unblocked defenders. You can see the nose tackle in the middle of the scrum without a single Michigan player looking at him.

Denard has to cut the play back, and runs into the defensive end that Omameh and Molk were supposed to double team. The nose tackle still hasn't been touched.

This is admittedly a bit of a convoluted example, but the evidence is clear: when Notre Dame was switching defensive alignments just prior to the snap, the offensive line was confused, missed blocks, and didn't know its assignments. We've already seen Michigan State time Michigan's snap count to devastating effect, and if Michigan doesn't change their count, problems like this will continue to arise. Notre Dame has question marks on defense and was able to confuse Michigan's offensive line. Similar moves against Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Penn State could crush Michigan this season.

QB draw comparison: 2009 vs. 2010

As I mentioned in my UConn game column, one of Michigan's more effective plays on Saturday was the oft-lamented Totally Surprising Quarterback Draw that Michigan used Denard Robinson for last year to middling effect. The offensive line came in for a lot of praise on Saturday and you can look no further than this play to see why. I did a little digging and found comparable plays from 2009 and early in the game against UConn to see the differences. In short, they're drastic, and you can now see why Rodriguez wanted to run this play so much last year. Simply put, the running backs and offensive line just didn't have the play down last year to run it effectively. So without further ado:

Iowa 2009
This play was on Denard's touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Michigan is set up in a 4-receiver set (trips to Denard's left) with Brandon Minor in the backfield. Iowa is essentially playing a 4-3, cover-1 with one of their linebackers shaded over Michigan's slot receiver.

After the snap, the two offensive guards and center look to move Iowa's defensive tackles. The left tackle is supposed to seal Iowa's defensive end to the outside and Brandon Minor is the lead blocker charged with taking out the play-side linebacker. Denard is supposed to zip through that hole and take on the deep safety one-on-one in space. The receivers are all charged with getting downfield and blocking the men who are lined up over them. In theory, this is how the play should work.

It's difficult to see below (sorry, there are YouTube'd screen shots), but the left guard and center are still tied up on one of Iowa's defensive tackles. This becomes problematic, because the left guard is supposed to leave that block and get to the second level to take out the weak side linebacker. He never does. Meanwhile, Minor is entering the hole and about to take on the playside linebacker. Minor doesn't execute particularly well and Denard's hole becomes restricted.

Now, Minor has completely whiffed on his block, the left tackle's block is slipping, and Denard is running directly into the playside linebacker in the hole. He's about to be engulfed by three Iowa players who have all beaten their blocks. Doom lurks.

Doom. Denard is wrapped up by #43 (2nd round draft pick Pat Angerer) and headed to the ground despite a decent gain. Regardless, this is not how this play is designed to go.

So that was last year. Michigan's linemen were unable to hold up their blocks long enough, Brandon Minor whiffed terribly on his block, and Denard was wrapped up for a short 3-yard gain, not to mention being pounded by several different Iowa players. The same play against UConn is after the break.