QB draw comparison: 2009 vs. 2010

As I mentioned in my UConn game column, one of Michigan's more effective plays on Saturday was the oft-lamented Totally Surprising Quarterback Draw that Michigan used Denard Robinson for last year to middling effect. The offensive line came in for a lot of praise on Saturday and you can look no further than this play to see why. I did a little digging and found comparable plays from 2009 and early in the game against UConn to see the differences. In short, they're drastic, and you can now see why Rodriguez wanted to run this play so much last year. Simply put, the running backs and offensive line just didn't have the play down last year to run it effectively. So without further ado:

Iowa 2009
This play was on Denard's touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Michigan is set up in a 4-receiver set (trips to Denard's left) with Brandon Minor in the backfield. Iowa is essentially playing a 4-3, cover-1 with one of their linebackers shaded over Michigan's slot receiver.

After the snap, the two offensive guards and center look to move Iowa's defensive tackles. The left tackle is supposed to seal Iowa's defensive end to the outside and Brandon Minor is the lead blocker charged with taking out the play-side linebacker. Denard is supposed to zip through that hole and take on the deep safety one-on-one in space. The receivers are all charged with getting downfield and blocking the men who are lined up over them. In theory, this is how the play should work.

It's difficult to see below (sorry, there are YouTube'd screen shots), but the left guard and center are still tied up on one of Iowa's defensive tackles. This becomes problematic, because the left guard is supposed to leave that block and get to the second level to take out the weak side linebacker. He never does. Meanwhile, Minor is entering the hole and about to take on the playside linebacker. Minor doesn't execute particularly well and Denard's hole becomes restricted.

Now, Minor has completely whiffed on his block, the left tackle's block is slipping, and Denard is running directly into the playside linebacker in the hole. He's about to be engulfed by three Iowa players who have all beaten their blocks. Doom lurks.

Doom. Denard is wrapped up by #43 (2nd round draft pick Pat Angerer) and headed to the ground despite a decent gain. Regardless, this is not how this play is designed to go.

So that was last year. Michigan's linemen were unable to hold up their blocks long enough, Brandon Minor whiffed terribly on his block, and Denard was wrapped up for a short 3-yard gain, not to mention being pounded by several different Iowa players. The same play against UConn is after the break.

To beat OSU: Break tendency; play the underdog

Michigan's deep in it going into their final game of the season against Ohio State on Saturday. Rich Rodriguez has long said that he doesn't care about time of possession, and that's pretty obvious from the stats this season (Michigan is 119th in the country in time of possession at 26:22 a game). If Michigan wants to have any chance going up against Ohio State on Saturday, it's going to have to break this tendency and try and grind out the game, slowing it down to a crawl.

A great post a few months ago from Brian at MGoBlog went a ways to explaining it. I suggest you read the entire thing to get the whole scope of it, but the gist is this:

And it's the same for the favorite and reducing their variance: sometimes it's worth reducing expectation to get it, but only in certain situations and when you're a considerable favorite. In Bo's time, Michigan was a considerable favorite much more often and the game lent itself to low-variance moves: a 40-yard punt is much more valuable in an era when ten points is a potentially game-winning number. Anyway, to the assertion above: modern offenses have more variance to them because they score more. Don't lose sight of expectation here: Missouri had a lot of variance in their scores but that was because they averaged 42 points a game. Michigan had far less but they were averaging 20. Offenses that do this quickly are actually more predictable because they get in more trials. Moving fast without sacrificing expectation is advantageous to the better team, which is why Oklahoma was in zero even halfway close games against the Big 12 rabble. (Texas is not rabble, obviously.) Defenses reduce variance by, you know, having safeties that can tackle. The very best defenses are low variance because all of the outcomes have the same result for the opposition: shame and humiliation. In that situation, punting your ass off makes sense, because you're a big favorite, you're not giving the opponent much of an opportunity and you're reducing variance in a way that helps your overall chances of winning. The main problem with Michigan's defense over the last few years has been their suckiness, which by the way increases variance as your defense falls to a point where opponents can drive the field on them regularly.

So what does that mean for Michigan on Saturday? It means they need to chew up as much time off the clock when they have the ball and pray for Terrelle Pryor to arm punt his way to a loss. The other problem here is that it presumes Michigan will be able to stop the OSU offense, um, once or twice or three times, which at this point, seems unlikely.

Having Brandon Minor this week is going to go a long way to make this happen. Without Minor, Michigan's run game (and subsequently, it's most consistent way to run time off the clock) takes a serious hit and depends a lot on Carlos Brown--a player who has made his mark this year on the big play. Vincent Smith, last week, looked like he might have the ability to cut through holes and pick up 4 or 5 yards at a time. If Michigan can get this kind of consistent play from Smith and Minor is out (for the record, it being Minor's last game, I assume he'll play, injured or not), it will go a long way to this end.

When the ball is in Forcier's hand, Michigan is going to need to limit sacks, penalties, and dropped passes. I'd be surprised to see Michigan take more than one shot downfield if they realistically want to win this game--it seems counter intuitive, but the faster Michigan scores, the more chances it gives Pryor and his offense to score. If Ohio State is blowing up Michigan's bubble screens and breaking into the backfield on rushes, Michigan will lose. There's no doubt about it. Also, Michigan is going to need to slow the pace of their offense down. Not that they should huddle up after every play, but taking most of the time off the play clock before snapping the ball would be advantageous.

On the other side of the ball, the key for Michigan is limiting the big play. Ohio State has lived off of the big play this year and has struggled when they haven't gotten it. Misdirection plays are going to be key, like they usually are for OSU, and the safeties' ability to stay home on these will be critical. If Michigan can force Pryor to march down the field, they further take time off the clock and increase the chances that Pryor will throw a pick. It's an uphill battle and Michigan needs to treat it as such if they want to have any chance in this game.

The problem with assignment football

You may have remembered yesterday when I said,

Much like the first play, Purdue played a lot of man/assignment football that, if the coach is good enough and has enough of the playbook open, will eventually crush. Again, Michigan just isn't there yet in their development.

Well, I was right and wrong. I went back and looked at the different touchdown plays that Michigan ran on the day and saw something that was extremely encouraging, and a sign of what Rodriguez can bring to the table as a play caller.

(First though, on the Roundtree touchdown, Purdue called nearly the same corner blitz that they had against the triple option that caused the fumble. Only this time, they didn't get nearly as lucky with the offensive play call, and Roundtree ran free through the secondary before stiff arming a safety into oblivion. It's pretty obvious that Purdue came into the game with a high-risk/high-reward gameplan. Unfortunately, Michigan couldn't covert on enough of these plays to pull out the victory. That or the defense is so bad that regardless of how many times Michigan converted, the defense couldn't get a stand. But, like the beginning of the season, you saw the return of Michigan's long run game. You can expect to see this disappear again against Wisconsin and Ohio State who have superior talent and won't be playing roulette with their defense.)

Brandon Minor scored two long touchdowns on the day, both on nearly the exact same play call. One worked because of a great play by Minor and Purdue's willingness to allow Michigan backs get into space for six or seven yards. The second was in direct response to the way Purdue was playing and worked to perfection. Let's take a look at the first:

Michigan is in the 3-wide, 2-RB set that they played out of for most of the day. You may remember this same defensive and offensive looks form the triple option plays I talked about yesterday. Purdue here is in the 4-3 cover-2 formation they put on the field nearly every time Michigan pulled out this formation. Michael Shaw is to Forcier's left and Minor is to Forcier's right in the backfield.

On the snap, the offensive line blocks all of the down linemen. Shaw's responsibility is to the hit B-gap between the left guard and left tackle and block the closest linebacker. This will put Minor--if he hits the hole correctly--one-vs.-one with the safety, much like we saw in the triple option, because Purdue was playing strictly assignment football. As the safeties are playing man coverage on the separate RBs, the playside safety (bottom of the screen) is charged with hitting the hole Minor is in and bringing him down. Frankly, this is exactly how Rodriguez wants defenses to play against him: Get your playmakers in space against one defender and watch them go to work.

Shaw is running through the hole and about to engage with the playside linebacker. Minor gets a good block and gap to run through and is following Shaw. The playside WR (I believe that's Hemingway on the bottom of the screen) is charged with getting to his corner and sealing him to the outside.

Shaw is engaged with his linebacker, and Minor is breaking through the gap, and is one-vs.-one with a safety who he makes look a little silly.

Minor doesn't have the top end speed nor the shiftiness to just shake the safety. If he did, you can see that there's plenty of room to the sideline, and if Minor breaks to the edge with more speed, he probably gets there and doesn't need the acrobatics he shows here.

Laying prone on the ground is the safety that was just at eye level with Minor. He didn't truck him, but had enough moves and strength to get by him. From here, Minor actually cuts back across the field and dodges through the defenders who are scrambling to tackle Minor, but who never get there.

Long story short, assignment football is exactly what Rodriguez wants defenses to play. If Michigan's power back is able to dance around the one defender who's spying him and get to the endzone, putting Vincent Smith or Carlos Brown into similar space will be even more effective.

Even though this worked--and in large part because Purdue had been conceding that dive play the entire day; it turned into a touchdown or seven yards every time--Rodriguez saw how Purdue was playing and decided to change his blocking schemes to get an easier touchdown (after the jump).

The speed option: What went wrong again?

Here's the second and more harmful of the two triple/speed option plays. Let's take a look at the presnap alignment:

Presnap, Michigan is in a 3-wide, two-RB set. In the backfield with Tate is Brandon Minor (to his left) and Michael Shaw (to his right). Purdue is playing a 4-3 under that Robinson bases his defense out of. You can tell from the stand-up defender on the line of scrimmage, and, as you'll see, the linebacker over the slot man on the top of the screen shades toward the line of scrimmage as well. The offense is currently looking to the sideline to get the play call from Rodriguez. Purdue does a great job of disguising their play:

Tate has now gotten the call from the sideline and is getting into the snap count. The player to look at here is the playside (bottom of screen) cornerback who is now showing blitz. The linebacker that was lined up over the slot man has now shaded over to the line of scrimmage and is also showing blitz. This ability to hide their play before Tate got the call from the sideline will be key to the play.

Here's the snap. Moosman, as was his tendency all day, makes a bad snap that Tate has to work for. Michael Shaw is coming across the formation for the option dive. As mentioned, this is probably not a read yet, but Forcier is still in charge of reading the backside defensive end, who is crashing down on Shaw and coming in unblocked (as designed). This doesn't tell us any more about whether or not Forcier was given the option to hand the ball of to Shaw here because, as you can see, with the DE crashing down on Shaw, the correct read is to pull the ball. However, you can also see the playside cornerback who showed blitz is now also crashing down on the play. I assume that in the future, when this play is more of a factor in the playbook, Matthews (whose corner is crashing on a blitz) will be instructed to turn and look for a quick pass. This is not in the playbook yet.

Forcier is still reading the backside DE who is still crashing on Shaw. The playside cornerback is still coming on a blitz but is mostly in charge of keeping contain on the play. Another thing you can see here is that playside middle linebacker has been charged with spying Forcier. Much like the first play, Purdue played a lot of man/assignment football that, if the coach is good enough and has enough of the playbook open, will eventually crush. Again, Michigan just isn't there yet in their development.

Forcier has pulled the ball as he was supposed to do, but the backside DE has made a really good play and already started to turn and attack Forcier. This makes a numbers problem for Michigan. Rather than having 2-vs.-2, which Rodriguez will take any time, Michigan is now going up against 3 defenders with only two players--the DE, corner, and linebacker against Forcier and Minor. Matthews has released past his cornerback and is looking to block on the second level. Matthews may have missed a read here; there's a chance that the play is designed so that if the cornerback blitzes, he's supposed to stay with him and block. This is all speculation and unlikely.

Forcier is now being hounded by the backside DE who made a good read on Forcier. Tate is starting to pitch the ball here and the cornerback who blitzed sees it and starts to make a break on the ball. I think this is probably the right play for Forcier. It just ends poorly, probably because of a bad pitch by Forcier. I think he leads Minor just a little too much on the pitch, which allows the corner to get a hand on it:

The Purdue cornerback makes a really nice play here and reaches out to swat the ball down. This is the epitome of high-risk/high-reward for Purdue. We know how this play ended, but if the cornerback misses that ball, or Forcier makes a better pitch, this play probably goes to the endzone. If you remember, Purdue was playing a 4-3 under with two deep safeties. They blitzed their cornerback allowing Matthews to release to the secondary uncovered and looking to block someone (one of the two deep safeties). So if the cornerback misses the swat here, the linebacker isn't fast enough to catch up to Minor, who's about 7 yards away and will likely get the edge of the field.

This corner blitz was a really good call by Purdue, but Michigan's alignment on the first triple option play didn't give it away. This is just kind of bad luck and probably a bad play on Forcier's behalf. Bummer.

The speed option: What went wrong?

So Michigan broke out a few new looks against Purdue: Denard saw one snap at RB and, more memorably, Michigan finally debuted the triple/speed option that has become synonymous with the spread option game. Unfortunately, it's memorable for the massive flub that gave Purdue the ball back on the 20 yard line after a Tate fumble. At first, I thought, "So this is why we haven't used this before." But after rewatching the game, it turned out to be a few really smart play calls by Purdue and the perfect storm of problems--from play calling to great defensive plays--that caused the Michigan fumble. Let's take a look at the first time Michigan tried this play. Alignment:

Michigan is in a 3-wide set with two RBs in the backfield. Purdue is playing  in a traditional 4-3 with two deep safeties. However, everyone on the field for Purdue is actually playing man-to-man coverage, with the two deep safeties charged with spying one of the two RBs in the backfield.

On the snap, the offensive line blocks left, leaving the weakside defensive end unblocked. This is where the problems start for Michigan. The weakside defensive end decides to keep contain on Forcier. Brian at MGoBlog mention that the hand off for the dive play--in this instance, the original handoff that, if it was available, Tate should have made to Michael Shaw because the DE is playing contain--is probably not an option for Forcier yet. In any case, Purdue is conceding the dive play because the backside corner (bottom left of the screen) actually has man coverage on the dive play.

Forcier pulls the ball even though the weakside defensive end is keeping contain. In any other instance, Forcier should have handed the ball off. He probably doesn't have this option yet. What's most interesting is the playside safety (top of the screen) is starting to crash down on Minor, who is his man-to-man assignment.

It's a little hard to see here, but if Forcier had handed the ball of for the dive play (or been allowed to), Michael Shaw has a seam that would net five yards or so and put him one-on-one against the safety. Instead, Tate is forced to pitch the ball to Minor on the option because the playside DE is keeping contain. The safety on the top of the screen can see this happening and is now starting to go directly at Minor, who he will eventually hit four yards in the backfield.

Minor is in the act of catching the ball and is 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The safety spying Minor is 4 yards from the line of scrimmage. The math doesn't work out for Michigan and this happens:

As you can see, If Forcier had kept the ball, he would've been in trouble, and yet Minor is surrounded by three players and about to be brought down in the backfield. This is because Purdue's DE kept contain and Forcier still pulled the ball. This is what happens when someone misses a read--or isn't given that read, whatever the case may be.

I have no idea how Purdue planned for this play, but they were undeniably ready for it, even though Michigan hadn't run it all year. It is my guess, however, that this kind of assignment football is how Roundtree got open on his TD pass and Minor broke so many big runs. I'll have to go back and see, but if Shaw gets the handoff here and breaks one tackle against the safety spying him, he's got nothing but the endzone in front of him. I'll let you know what I find later in the week, but this is purely assignment football and what every coach talks about when they play the spread. If Forcier wasn't a true freshmen, Rodriguez would likely have a devastating counter to this play. Michigan isn't there yet.

In a while, I'll post what happened the second time Michigan tried this play--the one that ended with a crushing fumble to the Michigan 20 yard line. Long story short, Purdue got pretty lucky with their play call and their cornerback made a phenomenal play. What's both encouraging and bothersome is that Michigan wasn't giving the play away with the presnap alignment, as they ran it a number of times throughout the game; I specifically checked for this. This means that Rodriguez's play calling has become stagnant enough that teams are getting the upper hand--for example, it looks like on most 2nd and long plays, Purdue blitzed a linebacker or corner in order to stop a Tate roll out.

Penn State Preview

Ed. note: Light posting today. This will probably be it, as I drove back to Michigan yesterday to see family and friends who will be in town for the game.

After Michigan's quasi-bye week against Delaware State, they welcome in Penn State, a team that hasn't won in the Big House since 1996 and has endured such atrocities as the one above in recent meetings. (Personal aside: At the time of this game, I was pretty good friends with Alan Branch. He's particularly more soft spoken and gentle than this picture might suggest. He also likes Wu-Tang.)

Let's take a look at some numbers. Mmmmm numbers:

Penn State Defense Offense Passing 14th nationally 163.43 YPG 37th nationally 245.71 YPG Rushing 6th nationally 75.43 YPG 25th nationally 187 YPG Scoring 2nd nationally 8.71 PPG 42nd nationally 29.57 PPG

Michigan Defense Offense Passing 80th nationally 232.86 YPG 86th nationally 191.57 YPG Rushing 58st nationally 130.43 YPG 8th nationally 235.00 YPG Scoring 46th nationally 21.86 PPG 9th nationally 37.29 PPG

So that, uh, doesn't look great. But then again, Penn State has been uniformly ripped for their cupcake scheduling. Delaware State jokes taken in stride, Penn State has played Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois. Their conerence slate has been similarly frosting-covered: Illinois and Minnesota (with the exception of the one good team they've played, Iowa, who they lost to in spectacular fashion).

So we shall forget the teams not named Iowa, and look at how Penn State fared against them. Darryl Clark had an exceptionally bad day, throwing three INTs and completing only 12 of his 32 passes. The running game didn't do much better: 109 yards on 33 carries (3.3 YPC). Michigan, by contrast, saw Forcier have his worst day of his career (8/19 with 1 INT) but had a good rushing attack against what was known as a stout, aggressive run defense (195 yards on 45 carries; 4.3 YPC and three TDs). The value you put into shared-opponent comparisons like this one aside, those numbers say something. And given Penn State's weak schedule to date, those national rankings are painfully inflated.

Defensively, Michigan crushed the Iowa run game (2.4 YPC) while Penn State allowed them to put up some decent numbers (4.4 YPC). Passing is a different story, however, as Stanzi had a pretty good day through the air, despite his pick-6--though his numbers are inflated due to MOEAKI!!! With any luck, our shifting secondary will have gotten their act together and won't let up these huge plays against a Penn State team that will be looking to attack the suspect safeties.

So what does it all mean? Well, it means that Penn State is no where near as good as those numbers above say they are. And while Michigan has had a few cupcakes themselves, punctuated by their state spike following the Delaware State game, they haven't benefitted quite as much.

So what does all that mean? It means that these teams are really, pretty evenly matched (I hope), despite Penn State's seemingly huge advantage in sheer statistics. Playing at the Big House is a big difference maker and is a big reason why the line on the game tomorrow is Michigan +4.5 and not, like, +8.

In terms of personnel, Forcier is apparently healthy, Molk is back, and Carlos Brown is healthy and practiced all week. Brandon Minor, however, may not be 100%; a big blow as he was unstoppable against Penn State last year. Apparently, the staff has been giving him limited time all week as he still nurses an ankle injury. I expect him to get limited carries at worst; there's no way Minor sits out the entire game. Expect most carries to be by Brown and Minor, with some Michael Shaw mixed in here and there. And Forcier, now healthy, can hopefully return to the form we saw him in early in the season. His backups are having trouble.

Prediction: Frankly, I don't feel like I know enough about Penn State to have any idea how this game is going to play out. Against their cupcakes and weak Big Ten competition, they've looked dominant. Against Iowa, they looked like a second-tier Big Ten team. This game is going to hinge, like the Iowa game, largely on turnovers. If Michigan doesn't cough the ball up like it's 2008 and Tate has even a moderately effective day, I think Michigan walks away with this one without too much heart ache. But if the passing game has trouble getting going, Minor is injured, 5 turnovers, and the run game struggles against Penn State's linebackers, Michigan is going to get crushed. Unfortunately, I can see either one happening. And since I have no idea which one it's going to be, and I'm a homer and an eternal optimist and the game is at the Big House, I'm going to nudge the victory Michigan's way. Michigan 28-24.

Post-presser thoughts: I can has freshmen?

Rodriguez was mostly ho hum about the status of Tate in his abbreviated media contact yesterday saying that doctors were still diagnosing him, but it looked good. It seems obvious now that Tate is going to start against Delaware State. I'm not particularly happy with this move, both because of Tate's continued physical ailments (he's still nursing that shoulder, which brother Jason recently said was worse than the media knew; IMO, unlikely, it probably just hurts a lot), but now also because of the unnecessary risk Michigan will be taking with the brain of Tate Scrambly-Back Forcier meeting a Delaware State defender's helemt. So Tate is going to start. Hopefully he only plays a series or two.

More importantly, we're about to find out whether or not stud cornerback recruit Justin Turner (above) is going to redshirt this season or not. If he doesn't see the field against Delaware State, consider him done for the season. There's no way, when Michigan gets into the real heart of the Big Ten schedule (PSU, OSU, Wisconsin), that Turner sees his first playing time. Rodriguez has been mum all year about the status of Turner and other freshmen seeing playing time, saying that he hasn't redshirted anyone yet and there's still time to play. Given MOAEKI!!! and the possibility of that continuing in the future with Woolfolk's move to corner, Turner's development into a Cissoko+ would enable Woolfolk to move back to safety and allow Michigan to play the football they want to without worrying about lumbering tight ends catching 60-yard seam route touchdowns.

The reason I bring this up is because of Rodriguez's mentioning that Woolfolk could move back to safety, and his "Going forward, we’ll see how the other guys (in the secondary) handle it" comment. If the secondary continues to get burned and Turner has proven himself to be better--not even that much better, either--than Michigan's other options at corner not named Woolfolk and Warren, Woolfolk will move back to safety. But if you don't see Turner play on Saturday, consider Woolfolk's move permanent.

Speaking of freshmen and young'uns in general, Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw should see significant carries against Delaware State. Though Rodriguez said that a perfect split for the running backs would be 15 carries for both Minor and Brown, with their lingering injuries, neither looks to get more than 10 carries on Saturday. Minor will be the starter and get the first few carries on the first drive, but Shaw and Smith should see the field shortly thereafter. I would be surprised, with the nature of his injury (concussion), to see Brown get more than 5 carries in the game.

Ugh
In terms of the Free Press GPA reports, I think I've editorialized about as much as I can on the topic, and I seem to be the only one giving any attention to them in the first place. I don't know why these reports bother me so much. They're clearly not going to affect the standing of the team, and they aren't particularly insightful. But they're needlessly derisive. To a certain extent, I can comprehend the NCAA violation accusations; not that I condone them, but I feel that, if the writers truly believe--rightly or wrongly--that Rodriguez shattered NCAA rules, they needed to report on them. Whether or not there was an agenda behind the report, the writers knowingly left out NCAA exceptions, or the writers used subversive methods they used to get their information, is besides the point. They thought, or at least hoped, that there was truth behind their accusations.

The fact that this GPA story is getting the kind of treatment it is from the Free Press (it's still the lead story in their sports section online and continues to be updated) is disheartening, telling of the Free Press' agenda, and infamatory. The gist of the story boils down to: Rodriguez fibbed. There are no reprocussions that can be brought, NCAA or otherwise, nor is there any reason to have this story make the headlines like it has. This isn't Lane Kiffin telling Tennessee supporters that Urban Meyer committed recruiting violations. This is Rodriguez saying "We did better than everyone ever. *wink*", and then it coming out that they're just doing as well as Michigan has ever done. There's nothing else I can say about this, and I don't plan on discussing it again unless it becomes some big national non-story.

Iowa: Where 2008 looms large

So that happened. Five turnovers is hard to swallow in a 2-point loss. As I mentioned in my preview, Michigan wins this game if they win the turnover battle. Things started well with Stanzi being Stanzi, but Forcier proceeded to give one back on his first toss of the day. It was a horrible pass and a worse decision. But that was Forcier's problem all day: he was forcing and trying to do too much. On a few different zone reads, Forcier kept the ball when he knew he shouldn't have and Michigan lost out on a good chunk of yards that Brandon Minor would have gotten. And so continues the emergence of our true freshman quarterback. You live by Forcier, you die by Forcier. That's been our motto all season long and it still is. Sort of.

Speaking of minor, boy was I wrong. He looked great on Saturday. He ran patiently, hitting the holes that he needed to and bowling over defenders when they tried bringing him down; a man amongst boys. He ended the game with 22 carries for 95 yards (4.3 YPC) and two touchdowns. So much for Iowa's 33 quarters without allowing a rushing touchdown.

But the real question: Did Rodriguez make a mistake leaving Robinson in for the final drive? I don't know. Given how Forcier had been playing all day, I tend to say no. Robinson looked potent and mostly unstoppable. He rushed for 5.25 YPC on the previous drive and was 2/2 through the air. If Michigan needed a touchdown, I think you can say that Rodriguez made a mistake by leaving Robinson in. But at the time the final drive started (at the 17 yard line), Michigan had 1:30 to gain approximately 50-60 yards for a reasonable field goal attempt. Robinson had just proven that he could do it. He made a grave mistake. So I don't know if Rodriguez made the right choice or not. I tend to trust him, but man, that was a hard loss to take.

I can has defense?
In more positive news, Troy Woolfolk's move from safety to cornerback seems to be something of a watershed moment. Maybe it was because Stanzi insisted on throwing at Donovan Warren (which was kind of inexplicable), but Woolfolk looked comfortable and aggressive. He broke up passes, tackled, and was generally light years ahead of JT Floyd and Boubacar Cissoko.

Cissoko, meanwhile, has been having some trouble. As was rumored on the MGoBoard (something I truly doubted, FWIW), he didn't even make the trip to Iowa. Says Rodriguez:

Cornerback Boubacar Cissoko did not make the trip to Iowa after he was suspended for a violation of team rules. Cissoko started the first four games at right cornerback, but did not play last week against Michigan State. "When he comes back, I couldn’t tell you,” Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said. “It’s really up to him. He’s got certain things he’s got to do on and off the field, academically and all that. And if he does them he’ll be back sooner rather than later.”

Emphasis mine. That doesn't sound good. Skipping class, maybe, but it seems to be a little more than that. Word has it that he's suspended indefinitely. That sounds as much like he's acting out during practice as it does he's skipping class. You don't get suspended indefinitely for skipping class.

Another thing we learned from the Iowa game: No one is ever going to run on Michigan again. There's no point. It won't succeed. Though Iowa's rushing attack hasn't been superb this year, they were thoroughly dominated by Michigan's front four, which continues to be the only thing keeping Michigan's defense from being thoroughly awful. The Hawkeyes averaged an embarrassing 2.4 YPC on 34 attempts. Ryan Van Bergen and Mike Martin were great stuffing the middle of the line and Brandon Graham was wreaking havoc on the Iowa backfield. A thoroughly impressive performance. Just a shame the secondary remains so deficient.

MOEAKI!!!!
So why can't Michigan cover tight ends? Were they convinced to make Tony Moeaki look like Michael Floyd? I'm going to have to go back to the plays and look at them more closely, but I remember thinking at the time that they were poor defensive play calls. I think Robinson called for a zero blitz on both of the Moeaki touchdowns. I'm not sure if Michael Williams is supposed to drop off into coverage if the tight end releases, or if they hope the blitz gets there. I'll break the plays down sometime this week, but those were backbreaking.

So now what?
Yes, so what now? Michigan's pipe dream Big Ten title hopes are officially dead. But going against (possibly) the best team in the Big Ten, turning the ball over five times, and still being within two with a chance to win at the end of the game is encouraging. Even as heartbreaking as that loss was. Woolfolk's move to cornerback is almost certainly permanent (holy depth chart!), leaving Williams and Kovacs to hold down the fort at safety. This will ultimately be a good thing but will open up the team to a lot of Moeaki-like plays. Even on Forcier's worst game of his career, Michigan had a chance to win the game at the end. I expect to see Robinson start under center next week against Delaware State. It won't be a permanent move, but the staff is going to want to get Robinson as much playing time as he can get.

Penn State is going to be a really difficult test, but looks beatable. Michigan outplayed one of the Big Ten's best defenses on Saturday, and, were it not for the turnovers, would've come away with a victory. This team is young, thin, and inexperienced. They will get better and will have at least a few more miracles this season.

Official: No Brown for Iowa

As was speculated here and other places, Carlos Brown won't play against Iowa because of a concussion. He didn't even make the trip. (These and other tidbits about can be heard from Rodriguez in this video that MGoBlue just posted.) As I said earlier, I expect Michael Shaw to get a lot of playtime tomorrow with the absence of Brown because, frankly, Michigan isn't going to be doing much running up the middle, and getting the edge is not something Brandon Minor excels in. Minor will start, but expect to see Michael Shaw in the game during the first series--as long as Michigan doesn't go three and out.

Brown's injury and what it means for Iowa

Word out of practice this week is that Carlos Brown, Michigan's leading rusher, is a little dinged up--something with his knees apparently (?). This, though seemingly not that bad coupled with Brandon Minor's healthiest week since spring camp, is actually a really big deal for Michigan's game plan and chances against an Iowa team that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown in the last 33 quarters.

It's not that Minor isn't a capable back, or that he's taken a marked step back this year after his breakout, crushing performance last season. It's his style of play against an Iowa defensive front that thrives against pounding, brutebacks the likes of Minor. Brown seemed to have cured his fumbling woes this year and has had a good season by utilizing his 5-star speed and burning linebackers and safeties for big gains. Minor, well, wrecks fools:



That running works against Indiana. It won't work against an Iowa team that is stronger, deeper, and bigger.

Brown's injury will open things up for some younger players on the offense, and fortunately, Michigan has a whole mess of sparkplug options. You should expect to see a fair amount of carries for Michael Shaw whose proven himself the #3 back behind Minor and Brown. If Shaw can't get anything going (and this is mostly assuming that Minor is held to 3-4 YPC), expect to see bite-sized Vincent Smith get a few touches.

The most interesting bit of information comes by way of The Michigan Daily and will have most Michigan fans drooling:

In the last rotation, Forcier ran the play at quarterback again, but with Robinson at running back. Though it wasn’t practiced during the first part of practice, the play could potentially give the opportunity for Robinson to pass the ball to a receiver off the pitch. Robinson’s speed — coupled with Forcier’s quick success and the fact that the country’s No. 1 quarterback recruit, Devin Gardner, is poised to join the Wolverines next season — has constantly raised questions of if Robinson may eventually move to slot receiver or running back. But this season, both he and Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez have continued to maintain that Robinson is solely a quarterback.

This was a fairly obvious progression. We knew it was going to get here eventually, even if Rodriguez had spent half of his time at press conferences saying that Robinson was definitively a quarterback. This doesn't mean that he's not a QB anymore, but it does open up a huge section of the playbook that Rodriguez hasn't even been able to think about using since he's been here. I expect to see this formation maybe once or twice. More likely, you'll see a 65/25 split between Minor and Shaw with a little bit of Smith and Brown sprinkled in. That is, unless Brown is healthier than he has been this week. Fortunately, with Michigan's running back situation, there's no need to hurry anyone back.

Update: MGoBlog has reliable sources. Curses. I should buy some of those. Brown likely out because of a concussion in practice. Also predicts a lot of Michael Shaw.