Random things

So for those of you with better things to do than watch the Senior Bowl (all of you), Brandon Graham won the game MVP as he was completely unblockable, caused fumbles and ran around more than men of his size sould be able to run around; motors and grit and heart and whatnot. The other theme to come out of the game is that Tim Tebow isn't very good at throwing a football, which we all already knew once we saw him play with Percy Harvin.

But Graham delivered a number of lyrical gems in his sideline interview like "Whoever gets me is going to love me." Most players interviewed were at least somewhat humbled. Thanked god. Talked about prepping for the pros. Brandon Graham wants nothing to do with your humility. He basically just talked about how great he was for 1:30. This may stem from the fact that he was arguably the best defensive lineman in the country this year (yeah, I'm putting him up there with Suh) despite being on a truly atrocious defense. Dude knows how great he is. He will be the next great Wolverine in the NFL barring injury or dog fighting or some other unforeseen event.

Hoops
Michigan beat Iowa this weekend in what was a hideous display of athleticism by the Hawkeyes. They didn't make a field goal for the first 10 minutes of the game. It was basically unwatchable. DeShawn Sims went all beast mode again and Manny Harris put up 20 points (albeit on 6-16 from the field; this needs to change kthxbye). The team still can't shoot from beyond the arc, going 7-26 (26.9%). Like I said last week, Michigan is going to be in trouble once Sims is gone, especially if we don't see appreciably better shooting next year. Terror level has been raised to Amaker. You'll be informed if it changes.

Hockey
I gave my thoughts on the Friday game over the weekend. I'm pretty upset I didn't see the end of the game now that it's turned into a massive controversy. But from the sound of it Michigan just got screwed on a crappy rule in hockey. I've played the game my entire life and have been subject to a number of "whistles blown before the puck is covered because the ref lost sight of it" calls. They suck, but thems the shakes. By the time we're dead and gone, they more or less balance out. But when it rains it pours, and Michigan fans have been getting dumped on for a while. Tough loss to take but not a wholly unprecedented whistle/call. This happens to hockey teams. Frankly, Michigan didn't deserve to win that game. Then again, MSU didn't deserve to win an 18-turnover hoops performance, but somehow that happened...

Recruiting
It's happening. Wednesday is National Signing Day. Michigan is still in on a few different players and I'm personally hoping for Demar Dorsey, a Florida safety and Denard Robinson's next of kin, to commit and fill up one of Michigan's final spots. Other than that, I'll take what we get and re-evaluate where the team. Overall, I think it's a good recruiting class if there aren't too many decommits in the next few days.

Purdue Preview

There's a chance you remember the play above. It was one of the more painful moments of Michigan 2008 and all but ended a game that Michigan mostly deserved to win. Purdue decided that they'd pull out all of the stops against struggling Michigan, and waited until their last drive of the game to bust out the back breaking hook and ladder for the go ahead score with only seconds remaining. Ugh. Numbers pleez:

Purdue Defense Offense Passing 34th nationally 194.67 YPG 42nd nationally 235.33 YPG Rushing 88th nationally 168.44 YPG 73rd nationally 136.78 YPG Scoring 84th nationally 28.00 PPG 80th nationally 24.56 PPG

Michigan Defense Offense Passing 63rd nationally 220.33 YPG 91st nationally 193.89 YPG Rushing 85th nationally 161.78 YPG 14th nationally 207.65 YPG Scoring 70th nationally 25.11 PPG 27th nationally 31.56 PPG

Michigan appears to have an advantage rushing the ball (like they do against everyone in the Big Ten) and can put the ball in the endzone one more time than the Boilermakers. That is when they're not vomiting the ball to the other team the entire game. Purdue is a team who's had similar turnover woes. Joey Elliott has thrown 11 INTs this season already. Elliott is mostly a pocket passer and tends to hurl the ball a lot, so his comfort in the pocket will be a focus. He's not afraid to scamper out when he has the chance, though, notching 63 carries on the season. Elliott is a senior now who is finally getting quality playing time and making the most of it: 179/310 for 2,081 yards, 14 TDs, and 11 INTs. He isn't setting the world on fire, but probably will against Michigan's secondary.

The only advantage here is that Juice Williams won't be making Michigan's linebackers look silly. The bad news is MOEAKI!! Expect to see a lot of max protect sets with tight ends slipping into the secondary. This is the formula for success against Michigan. If the defensive line can get to Elliott quickly and often, Michigan will win this game. Also, the linebackers staying in rushing lanes will be supremely important, as will be their ability not to completely bite on play fakes. The chances of these things happening are slim.

Purdue's defense is approximately as bad as Michigan's, which bodes well for Michigan's running game, going up against the 88th ranked rushing defense. Expect them to load the box though and force Michigan to put the ball into the air. Michigan's rushing attack has been able to move the ball against much stouter defenses in the past, though, and I expect that Brown and Minor (if healthy; please, please be healthy) should be able to go to work.

Ralph Bolden is Purdue's main rushing attack and will get most of the carries. He's a sophomore who's been largely unremarkable this year, save for games against Toledo and Northern Illinois. He had a nice game against Oregon (4.3 YPC on 29 attempts, and finding the endzone twice), but against most other FBS opponents, he's been in th 2.5-3.5 YPC range. I can't tell whether or not a good performance by Bolden is a good or bad thing for Michigan. On the one hand, the more he runs, the more Purdue isn't throwing the ball. On the other hand, linebackers and secondary and non-Warren corners. Again, the key for success in this game is getting to Elliott. Bolden should be a non-factor.

Prediction: Purdue is a difficult team to get a handle on. They lost to Notre Dame by three and to Oregon by two, beat Ohio State, were shut out 37-0 by Wisconsin, and lost to Northern Illinois, Northwestern, and Minnesota. But I've read this script before and it doesn't end well for you and I. This game is as must win as must wins get for Michigan who, if they go down here, will have to beat Wisconsin on the road or Ohio State at home, neither of which look particularly promising. (I have had this sneaking feeling though, that, like MSU preparing for Michigan all season, Michigan has been spending time preparing for Ohio State and will come away with a victory there. Michigan probably just isn't a good football team.)

Once again, winning the turnover battle will be supremely important, and if Michigan is behind in this category, you can expect them to lose this game in spectacular fashion. My heart is telling me that Michigan is going to win this game, but given Purdue's recent ability to beat real football teams and apparent peak late in the season, my mind is telling me that Michigan is going to get beaten in this one. Does desperation count for anything? Not when you're team isn't any good. If Michigan had caught Purdue earlier in the season, I'd have put this game firmly in M's column (even if Michigan had been performing the way they had lately). As it's 9 games in, and who knows how many times Michigan will turn the ball over, I have to put a conditional on it:

Michigan 35-20 if they win the turnover battle
Purdue 28-20 if Michigan loses the turnover battle

Iowa: Where 2008 looms large

So that happened. Five turnovers is hard to swallow in a 2-point loss. As I mentioned in my preview, Michigan wins this game if they win the turnover battle. Things started well with Stanzi being Stanzi, but Forcier proceeded to give one back on his first toss of the day. It was a horrible pass and a worse decision. But that was Forcier's problem all day: he was forcing and trying to do too much. On a few different zone reads, Forcier kept the ball when he knew he shouldn't have and Michigan lost out on a good chunk of yards that Brandon Minor would have gotten. And so continues the emergence of our true freshman quarterback. You live by Forcier, you die by Forcier. That's been our motto all season long and it still is. Sort of.

Speaking of minor, boy was I wrong. He looked great on Saturday. He ran patiently, hitting the holes that he needed to and bowling over defenders when they tried bringing him down; a man amongst boys. He ended the game with 22 carries for 95 yards (4.3 YPC) and two touchdowns. So much for Iowa's 33 quarters without allowing a rushing touchdown.

But the real question: Did Rodriguez make a mistake leaving Robinson in for the final drive? I don't know. Given how Forcier had been playing all day, I tend to say no. Robinson looked potent and mostly unstoppable. He rushed for 5.25 YPC on the previous drive and was 2/2 through the air. If Michigan needed a touchdown, I think you can say that Rodriguez made a mistake by leaving Robinson in. But at the time the final drive started (at the 17 yard line), Michigan had 1:30 to gain approximately 50-60 yards for a reasonable field goal attempt. Robinson had just proven that he could do it. He made a grave mistake. So I don't know if Rodriguez made the right choice or not. I tend to trust him, but man, that was a hard loss to take.

I can has defense?
In more positive news, Troy Woolfolk's move from safety to cornerback seems to be something of a watershed moment. Maybe it was because Stanzi insisted on throwing at Donovan Warren (which was kind of inexplicable), but Woolfolk looked comfortable and aggressive. He broke up passes, tackled, and was generally light years ahead of JT Floyd and Boubacar Cissoko.

Cissoko, meanwhile, has been having some trouble. As was rumored on the MGoBoard (something I truly doubted, FWIW), he didn't even make the trip to Iowa. Says Rodriguez:

Cornerback Boubacar Cissoko did not make the trip to Iowa after he was suspended for a violation of team rules. Cissoko started the first four games at right cornerback, but did not play last week against Michigan State. "When he comes back, I couldn’t tell you,” Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said. “It’s really up to him. He’s got certain things he’s got to do on and off the field, academically and all that. And if he does them he’ll be back sooner rather than later.”

Emphasis mine. That doesn't sound good. Skipping class, maybe, but it seems to be a little more than that. Word has it that he's suspended indefinitely. That sounds as much like he's acting out during practice as it does he's skipping class. You don't get suspended indefinitely for skipping class.

Another thing we learned from the Iowa game: No one is ever going to run on Michigan again. There's no point. It won't succeed. Though Iowa's rushing attack hasn't been superb this year, they were thoroughly dominated by Michigan's front four, which continues to be the only thing keeping Michigan's defense from being thoroughly awful. The Hawkeyes averaged an embarrassing 2.4 YPC on 34 attempts. Ryan Van Bergen and Mike Martin were great stuffing the middle of the line and Brandon Graham was wreaking havoc on the Iowa backfield. A thoroughly impressive performance. Just a shame the secondary remains so deficient.

MOEAKI!!!!
So why can't Michigan cover tight ends? Were they convinced to make Tony Moeaki look like Michael Floyd? I'm going to have to go back to the plays and look at them more closely, but I remember thinking at the time that they were poor defensive play calls. I think Robinson called for a zero blitz on both of the Moeaki touchdowns. I'm not sure if Michael Williams is supposed to drop off into coverage if the tight end releases, or if they hope the blitz gets there. I'll break the plays down sometime this week, but those were backbreaking.

So now what?
Yes, so what now? Michigan's pipe dream Big Ten title hopes are officially dead. But going against (possibly) the best team in the Big Ten, turning the ball over five times, and still being within two with a chance to win at the end of the game is encouraging. Even as heartbreaking as that loss was. Woolfolk's move to cornerback is almost certainly permanent (holy depth chart!), leaving Williams and Kovacs to hold down the fort at safety. This will ultimately be a good thing but will open up the team to a lot of Moeaki-like plays. Even on Forcier's worst game of his career, Michigan had a chance to win the game at the end. I expect to see Robinson start under center next week against Delaware State. It won't be a permanent move, but the staff is going to want to get Robinson as much playing time as he can get.

Penn State is going to be a really difficult test, but looks beatable. Michigan outplayed one of the Big Ten's best defenses on Saturday, and, were it not for the turnovers, would've come away with a victory. This team is young, thin, and inexperienced. They will get better and will have at least a few more miracles this season.