Purdue loading the box

Yesterday, MGoBlog Picture Paged how Purdue was loading the box against Michigan and leaving man-to-man coverage with no safety help for much of the game. Despite this, Michigan just kept running into a wall of defenders to middling effect. Michigan did very little to counteract this until the final drive of the game in which they went exclusively to their heavy package (with both Martell Webb and Kevin Koger on the field in the H-back positions). In response to Michigan's added blockers, Purdue committed yet another defender to the box (nine in total) and left the cornerbacks on an island against Michigan's two wide receivers. After seeing how unflinchingly Purdue had committed to stopping the run, Rich Rodriguez finally called a play to burn Purdue on a third and six that helped ice the game.

Here's the aforementioned formation. Purdue has nine players in the box with cornerbacks covering Michigan's receivers man-to-man. Denard has Vincent Smith next to him in the backfield, with Webb and Koger lined up as H-backs.

After the snap, Michigan leaves the weakside defensive end (Ryan Kerrigan) unblocked. Koger and Webb are rolling out to the weakside like they would on a regular zone read play.

The Denard INT: It was Denard's fault

Last year's Iowa game ended with a Denard Robinson interception that was nearly identical to the interception he threw on the first play of the second quarter in Saturday's game. Last year, despite what appeared to be a significant overthrow, I still questioned whether or not the interception was Denard's fault or a poor read of the defense by Hemingway, who sat down in a zone that didn't exist. I concluded thusly:

Had Hemingway kept running, would this have been a great pass? I don't know. Maybe? It looks to me like it was probably a little under thrown, but even so, Hemingway could've been there to knock it down. So whose fault was it? I'm not sure, but after watching the play again, I'm inclined to say Hemingway...

The only way I can see this being Denard's fault is if Hemingway's route was a called comeback that Denard missed in the play calling. I find that hard to swallow though. Hemingway wouldn't have gotten behind his corner so quickly or with so much ferocity if he was going to run the comeback route. Also, he never came back.

After looking over this year's interception, however, and being more confident in my ability to identify defenses and routes, I'm fairly certain that last year, like this year, the pass falls squarely on Denard's shoulders. Let's take a look at this year's interception first and then see how it compares to last year's:

Michigan is in a three-wide set with Martell Webb lined up on the line of scrimmage on the weakside of the field (top of the screen) and Vincent Smith in the backfield next to Denard. Iowa is in their base 4-3 set with an outside linebacker shaded over Roundtree in the slot. Iowa is in a cover-2 look.

MSU defending Denard and the Webb TD

Though there were a fair amount of missed blocking assignments on Saturday, Michigan State deserves some credit for the way that they defended the Michigan offense, particularly the way they tried to hold down Denard. Primary among their schematic counters to Denard was blitzing both outside linebackers and spying Denard with middle linebacker Greg Jones.

This strategy did a few things effectively: More important than the blitzes actually getting to Denard was keeping him in the pocket. The blitzing outside linebackers acted as contain players while also bringing extra heat on passing downs. This obviously leaves them susceptible to some passing plays (Webb TD below), but they more or less kept Denard in the middle of the field where MSU's best defensive player was waiting. The blitzes also made sure that Denard couldn't beat them on scrambles. With Jones spying Denard--and sometimes coming on a delayed blitz--the MSU defense was daring Denard to sit in the pocket and beat them through the air. We saw how that ended.

But that was only when the pocket wasn't moving. When MSU blitzed their outside linebackers and Michigan moved the pocket, it forced Greg Jones to track Denard to the playside of the field and essentially opened up the entire backside of the play. One of the ways MSU was so effective against Michigan on Saturday was because they were overselling to the playside. Michigan has almost no counter plays in their offensive arsenal, and on the zone read, MSU defensive ends were instructed to always stay high, forcing Denard to hand the ball off. So no matter what Michigan ran, MSU was flowing downhill into the play.

Michigan did run at least one counter, however, and it was the walk-into-the-endzone Martell Webb touchdown in the second quarter.

Notre Dame and snap counts

Ed. note: In lieu of a UMass preview, something that, unless something awful happens, should be useless, I wanted to do a little breakdown of Notre Dame's defensive line shift that was effective because of Michigan's predictable snap count. For a comprehensive UMass preview, visit MGoBlog.

I mentioned in Wednesday's Good Idea, Bad Idea post that Michigan is continuing to use a predictable snap count. When I was watching the game live, I saw Notre Dame shifting their defensive front right before Michigan snapped the ball, and finally found some video of comparable plays that shows that it may actually be more detrimental to the team's blocking schemes and production--aside from the obvious: allowing defensive teams to time blitzes--than originally thought. First up is a play in which Notre Dame uses the defensive front they originally showed:

Here, Michigan is set up with Denard in the shotgun and Michael Shaw to his right. They're using an H-back (Martell Webb) in this formation. Notre Dame is in the 4-3 base set that they had shown for most of the game. This will eventually be a passing play, but the important thing to watch is the blocking of the offensive line.

After the snap, Denard rolls to his right. David Molk and Patrick Omameh double team the strongside defensive tackle. Perry Dorrestein has one-on-one blocking against the strongside defensive end. Mark Huyge is charged with blocking the weakside defensive tackle and Steve Schilling is being given a free release into the second level. Martell Webb is supposed to get to the second level and block one of Notre Dame's corner backs as this will eventually be a counter screen pass to the weakside of the field. The weakside defensive end is unblocked.

Regardless of how this play ends, you can see that the offensive line is tied up with their appropriate defensive players. Huyge has passed the weakside defensive tackle to Schilling and is releasing to help block on the screen pass. Omameh and Molk are still driving back one of Notre Dame's defensive tackles. How the play ends is beside the point (it ends poorly, for the record). But you can see that there's order. All of the offensive linemen know where they're supposed to be and who they're supposed to block.

In the next play, Michigan is in the same formation and, at least initially, Notre Dame is in the same defensive formation. But because of Michigan's predictable snap count, Notre Dame was able to change their defensive front just before the snap and confuse the offensive line.

Here you can see that Michigan is in the same alignment they are above. Denard is in the shotgun with Michael Shaw to his right. Martell Webb is in as an H-back. Notre Dame is showing the same 4-3 defensive front. But because they're able to time Michigan's snap, the defensive line shifts from a 4-3 to a 3-4, changing all of the blocking schemes for the offensive line:

As you can see now, Notre Dame has shifted into a 3-4 front with the weakside defensive end becoming a stand-up linebacker, and the rest of the defensive line shifting over so that now they have a nose tackle and two defensive ends. Worse still is that all of this happens with Molk's head down, waiting to snap the ball; when he picks his head up, he'll be greeted with a completely different defensive front.

Because this is a different play than the above example (this is a designed QB run), there will be some differences in how it plays out. But the important thing to watch is the offensive line. If Notre Dame was in a 4-3 front still, Molk would've reach blocked the strongside defensive tackle with Omameh, Dorrestein would've seal blocked the defensive end, and Michael Shaw would block the playside linebacker. Instead, Molk goes for a reach block on the defensive end who has taken place of the defensive tackle. Omameh looks to double team the defensive end and Dorrestein, who was able to see the changing blocking schemes, also hits the defensive end and then releases to the second level.  Long story short, there are three linemen blocking a single defensive end. The nose tackle is being left unblocked by the front line and is now the responsibility of Webb, who is supposed to release to the second level to block one of the middle linebackers (about more which later).

The next thing you see is utter chaos. Molk and Omameh and still tied up double teaming the defensive end. Dorrestein and Schilling have released to the second level to block linebackers, and Huyge is tied up with the weakside defensive end. Shaw is locked up with the playside linebacker. The nose tackle is going completely unblocked and is able to, along with the playside middle linebacker, keep contain on Denard and force him back into the defensive help.

More chaos. Denard has no where to go and is being forced back into unblocked defenders. You can see the nose tackle in the middle of the scrum without a single Michigan player looking at him.

Denard has to cut the play back, and runs into the defensive end that Omameh and Molk were supposed to double team. The nose tackle still hasn't been touched.

This is admittedly a bit of a convoluted example, but the evidence is clear: when Notre Dame was switching defensive alignments just prior to the snap, the offensive line was confused, missed blocks, and didn't know its assignments. We've already seen Michigan State time Michigan's snap count to devastating effect, and if Michigan doesn't change their count, problems like this will continue to arise. Notre Dame has question marks on defense and was able to confuse Michigan's offensive line. Similar moves against Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Penn State could crush Michigan this season.

Denard touchdowns

The Delaware State game saw a lot of playing time for Denard Robinson and rightly so. He desperately needs the kind of in-game polish that Forcier has shown this year, and only game-time experience will help that. Against Iowa, Denard threw a fatal interception that ended the game. A lot of the talk about the pick was that he basically just floated the ball in the air, into the arms of an awaiting safety. I contend that it wasn't nearly as bad a throw as it looked (Stonum shouldn't have broken off his route), but it was still a jump ball at best.

Saturday's game against Delaware State saw a few passes from Denard, and two of them were long touchdown passes. But despite the results, the passes--watching them live and again on the replay--are as much OH NOES DENARD as they are good decisions. Touchdown the first:

Michigan is in a three-wide set. Kelvin Grady who catches the wide-open touchdown pass is set up in the slot. Denard is flanked by two running backs and is going to fake the zone-read before rolling out and throwing the pass.

At the snap, Vincent Smith is coming in front of Denard for the play action, which freezes the linebacker. Delaware State is blitzing hard, leaving their corner backs out on an island with one deep safety. This is a naked-ish bootleg as the offensive line ends up going backside and drawing the attention of the defensive line and linebackers.

The playside defensive end doesn't bite on the play fake, Kevin Grady (no L) is running into the flat for a quick release, and the playside linebacker is also crashing down on Denard. However, Kelvin Grady is running a straight fly route through the seam. His corner tried playing bump-and-run coverage but completely whiffs as Grady meets him. This route technically shouldn't be open with the one deep safety. There's no good angle to see what he does, but it seems like he is crashing down on the outside receiver, who Denard is staring at.

Here, Denard sees Kelvin Grady open in a sea of turf, pulls up to get his feet, and hurls the ball downfield. Touchdown. Unfortunately, this play constitutes OH NOES. The linebacker and defensive end are on top of Denard and end up delivering a shot as he's throwing the ball. Even though Kelvin is wide open, Denard should have hit him earlier in the route, shortly after he passed by his corner with ease--that is unless the safety sat on that route for a while, which I doubt given how out of position he is here. Against better opposition, Denard would either be sacked here or throw a duck into the middle of the field. The smart play is throwing it to Kevin (no L) Grady in the flat for 15 yards or so.

It's difficult to criticize Denard for throwing a 40-yard touchdown to an open receiver, but the pass isn't particularly good. Not only did he probably make the wrong decision by throwing the ball deep when he was being pressured, but the pass was underthrown and lofted, much like his interception at the end of the Iowa game. The second touchdown was almost the exact same play.

Delaware State Preview

No, this is not Michigan

Michigan is coming off of back-to-back losses to Big Ten opponents. Tate Forcier is concussed and has a shoulder injury. Carlos Brown also suffered a concussion recently. And the team seems to be reeling after two soul-crushing, close defeats.

So what is there to say about this week's opponent? Delaware State is a 1-3 1-AA opponent that lost to a school named Bethune-Cookman by a score of 9-7. Their kicker is 1 for 6 kicking field goals. They rank 100th (!!!) in total offense amongst FCS teams, averaging 265 yards per game and only scoring 8 TDs in their four games. Their defense? 92nd amongst FCS teams, allowing 392 yards per game. They do, however, only allow a little over 15 points per game, which is good for 14th among FCS teams.

Let's put it this way: Delaware State is not Appalachian State. In fact, if all goes as planned on Saturday, Delaware State jumps from 1-3 to 1-5, after only having played one game, because they forfeitted a conference game for the chance to play against Michigan in the Big House (read: $$$$$).

Quarterback Anthony Glaud is averaging 144.5 yards-per-game, completing 57.5% of his passes, and has a 2/2 TD/INT ratio. Their run game is in trouble as one of their top two backs, Jason Randall, will miss at  two to three weeks with a leg injury. Needless to say, this Delaware State team is... not a threat.

So that leads us to Michigan, who will likely try to play as many young players as long as possible. Yesterday I went in depth about the redshirt status of Justin Turner and talked about the secondary in general. I had completely forgotten, however, about Vlad Emilien, a four-star safety recruit out of Florida who we've also yet to see take the field. Emilien is exactly who you'd want to see on the field against Delaware State, and someone you'd hope could quickly replace walk-on Jordan Kovacs (who's done an admirable job in his time on the field) in the secondary.

IMO, it's more likely to see Emilien on the field tomorrow than Turner if for no other reason than we need bodies that have played safety before to be ready to play. With Woolfolk's move to cornerback, Michigan officially has two safeties who have seen playing time this year. Regardless of Cissoko's status or the general talent deficiencies of JT Floyd, there are still able bodies that can be put in at the corner position. And with Woolfolk proving in his first game to be an above-average corner, Turner now has more competition at the position. Not that I necessary expect either Turner or Emilien to play, but the latter is far more crucial to the immediate success of the defense than Turner.

As for the rest, expect to see lots of Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, and Denard Robinson. Also expect to see Will Campbell get a lot of time in this game, who Brian Cook has been asserting had a truly awful day against Iowa in limited time--I didn't notice. The people I'm interested to see on the field are Kelvin Grady and Martell Webb, though. In Rodriguez's last press conference, he, in so many words, said that Grady had hit a freshman wall but will be incorporated more into the offense in the future. I want to see Grady on the field and see what he can do. Because for all of the OMGGRADY! coming out of spring and fall camp, he's been mostly unremarkable, notching eight catches and one rush for a total of 65 yards, plus a whole spattering of dropped balls. Webb, meanwhile, has seen his playing time significantly diminished when in back-to-back games, he dropped balls that hit him squarely in the numbers. I assume Rodriguez is going to want to see what he's got in Webb and have him split reps with Koger who has been masterful.

Prediction: Michigan runs away with this early on the strength of their ground game and a few nice passes to painfully open receivers by Tate. The defense looks stout and aggressive, and Delaware State manages little over 2 YPC, if that. Denard is brought in when Michigan has a two touchdown lead and has the entire playbook that Tate has. We see less quarterback draws from him this time around and he puts the ball in the air (to pretty good effect) more than we've ever seen him before. Michigan 42-6