MSU defending Denard and the Webb TD

Though there were a fair amount of missed blocking assignments on Saturday, Michigan State deserves some credit for the way that they defended the Michigan offense, particularly the way they tried to hold down Denard. Primary among their schematic counters to Denard was blitzing both outside linebackers and spying Denard with middle linebacker Greg Jones.

This strategy did a few things effectively: More important than the blitzes actually getting to Denard was keeping him in the pocket. The blitzing outside linebackers acted as contain players while also bringing extra heat on passing downs. This obviously leaves them susceptible to some passing plays (Webb TD below), but they more or less kept Denard in the middle of the field where MSU's best defensive player was waiting. The blitzes also made sure that Denard couldn't beat them on scrambles. With Jones spying Denard--and sometimes coming on a delayed blitz--the MSU defense was daring Denard to sit in the pocket and beat them through the air. We saw how that ended.

But that was only when the pocket wasn't moving. When MSU blitzed their outside linebackers and Michigan moved the pocket, it forced Greg Jones to track Denard to the playside of the field and essentially opened up the entire backside of the play. One of the ways MSU was so effective against Michigan on Saturday was because they were overselling to the playside. Michigan has almost no counter plays in their offensive arsenal, and on the zone read, MSU defensive ends were instructed to always stay high, forcing Denard to hand the ball off. So no matter what Michigan ran, MSU was flowing downhill into the play.

Michigan did run at least one counter, however, and it was the walk-into-the-endzone Martell Webb touchdown in the second quarter.

MSU preview

The last two years have been sub-optimal in the annual Michigan/Michigan State game. In 2008, it was a catastrophe as most games that year were. Last year's game was utter heartbreak and the beginning of Michigan's slide into irrelevance. Let's hope 2010 is filled with less overtime interceptions and crushing defeat.

One thing that may determine whether or not this happens are the numbers:

Michigan State Defense Offense Passing 78th nationally 227.40 YPG 39th nationally 240.40 YPG Rushing 20th nationally 101.20 YPG 20th nationally 220.20 YPG Scoring 36th nationally 18.60 PPG 24th nationally 36.20 PPG

Michigan Defense Offense Passing 120th nationally 307.80 YPG 38th nationally 240.60 YPG Rushing 37th nationally 125.80 YPG 3rd nationally 324.40 YPG Scoring 73rd nationally 25.40 PPG 9th nationally 41.40 PPG

Yep, you read that correctly: Michigan now has the worst pass defense in the country re: yards per game. And despite MSU being a run-first team, you can expect a heavy dose of Kirk Cousins torching the Michigan defense. Despite MGoBlog's assertion to the contrary, I expect Michigan State to greatly exceed their pass-to-rush ratio in this game. The worst passing defense in the country is not something that teams just ignore, and given MSU's obsession with beating Michigan and their preparation for the game, I expect to see more three-wide sets than I-formation tomorrow. That's not to say that stopping MSU's stable of running backs won't also be important, but Cousins has a few weapons around him to throw the ball to and I expect to see a lot more passing than you'd expect or that MSU has shown this year.

On the other side of the ball, the big matchup everyone wants to see is All-World Linebacker Greg Jones versus Denard. Jones might provide the greatest test to Denard all season, as an athletic linebacker that is great in space. If any Big Ten linebacker has a chance at slowing Denard, it's Jones. However, Rich Rod has proven an ability to get the matchups he wants. Michigan will probably run a lot of looks with one or two H-backs in the game who will be responsible for blocking Jones. Otherwise, Denard will probably look to get to the edge of the field and avoid running into Jones through the tackles.

Through the air, MSU is vulnerable, much like last year. Michigan's passing game has been shredding defenses because of their need to overplay the run. And with Denard's ability to throw the deep ball, it's his passing, rather than his running that could really hurt MSU. But a lot of that depends on whether or not Michigan can nullify Greg Jones and get a few 15+ yard rushes.

Prediction: Before the season and during the first two weeks, I felt confident that this game would be in Michigan's favor: aside from Michigan's offensive talent and apparent improvement on defense, the game is in Ann Arbor and is a redemption game for the last two years of MSU victories. But after watching the Indiana game, I've lost almost all confidence in Michigan's defense and Greg Robinson's ability to confuse a quarterback/offense.

Kirk Cousins has shown two sides of himself this year: a confident quarterback with a solid command of his offense, able to shred suspect defenses, and an inexperienced player prone to making the Big Mistake. Depending on which Cousins shows up to the game may very well decide who wins. If Cousins is on his game, I think MSU walks away with the game. If he makes the red zone mistakes that he's often made the last two years, Michigan could find their bend-don't-break defense coming up with a few important stops a la the Cam Gordon interception against Indiana in the end zone.

Despite Spartan fans feverishly waiting for Greg Jones to demolish Denard, that's not going to happen in this game. Rodriguez will be smart enough to get a blocker on Jones for most of the game and Denard will be able to move pretty well on the ground setting up some of the play action we've seen Rodriguez call. Michigan gets at least one long touchdown in this game but I also expect Denard to throw at least one interception. As always, winning the turnover battle will be key if Michigan wants a shot at this game.

I see this one going down as a little less shootout-y than Indiana with both teams getting more consistent stops. Michigan will stop MSU on a few drives when they decide to run the ball on first and second down, and MSU will get stops when Michigan picks up a penalty or has a negative play, which will happen far more often than it has earlier in the season.

It's difficult to imagine how this one will actually play out. There are a lot of things that could happen to change how it all goes down. In the end, I think Cousins has a really good day in terms of completion percentage, but his YPA is low. Michigan avoids letting up any big plays on defense forcing MSU to march down the field and hope for a few Cousins missteps. Combine that with a big touchdown play for Michigan, and I see the Maize and Blue coming out on top in a close one (despite my inclination to push here and not make a prediction): Michigan 28-27