Pretty sneaky, Mr. Borges Pt.1

Michigan didn't show a whole lot of new offensive formations against Northwestern, but they did debut the heavy I formation, which has two fullbacks lined up in the backfield:

This is obviously a short-yardage formation. In this instance, it's third and one about midway through the second quarter. Michigan is down 14-7 and has Steve Watson and Stephen Hopkins lined up as fullbacks. Fitz Toussaint is lined up deep as the half back. Northwestern is predictably loading the box.

Just before the snap, Watson takes a step forward and another step to his left, which seems like a horrible idea. This tips off the Wildcat linebackers as to what direction the play is headed. You can see in the screen below that the Northwestern MLB (or possibly strong safety, I can't tell) starts moving toward the A gap because Michigan has tipped their hand.

As the ball is snapped, you can see the linebacker is already at the line of scrimmage and about to engage Watson in the A gap. For a play that is designed to get one yard, creating a log jam at the point of attack is probably not the best idea.

Watson has now engaged the linebacker and is falling over. Hopkins is headed into the same hole as a lead blocker.

By the time Toussaint gets the ball, Northwestern has changed the line of scrimmage at the point of attack. Because the linebacker was able to key on Watson pre-snap, the Wildcats have plugged the A gap and pushed the Michigan blockers a yard behind the line of scrimmage.

Toussaint dives into the hole and fails to make the first down. After a few timeouts, Michigan would eventually make the conversion on fourth and one with a QB keeper.

This is MANBALL of the worst variety. If Watson doesn't motion pre-snap, he likely hits that linebacker a yard beyond the line of scrimmage instead of at the LOS. Hopkins then doubles that linebacker or finds someone else to block and Toussaint easily picks up the one yard. But as we'll see later today, there's a reason for this: Al Borges' diabolical machinations.

Hold the edge fergodsakes

Throughout the season, we've seen Michigan's young linebackers and defensive ends struggle to hold the edge and properly funnel running backs to the support. Logically, discipline from the linebackers was a key to success against Northwestern's offensive attack. On the Wildcats' first touchdown Saturday, they exploited that inexperience with the triple option.

It's second and six, and Northwestern is trying to respond to Michigan's opening-drive touchdown. They align with trips receivers to Persa's Kain Colter's left (EDIT: the backup QB subbed in for Persa) and are in a strange formation that I'll refer to as the Pistol T. Michigan has their nickel package on the field and is in man coverage. Jake Ryan has his hand on the ground as the weakside defensive end.

As the ball is snapped, Ryan is left unblocked. Northwestern is running the triple option here. Currently, Colter is reading Ryan and will decide whether or not to hand the ball off for the RB dive. The running back to Colter's left is swinging behind the mesh point to act as the pitch man if Colter pulls the ball.

Ryan commits to the dive play, which...

...whoops, Colter pulls the ball. The right tackle and guard are releasing to the second level and about to smother Brandin Hawthorne.

Poor Jordan Kovacs. He now stands as the only player between the ball and the endzone, trying to defend a pitch option.

He's hopeless, as anyone would be facing this scenario. Colter cuts back upfield and runs untouched into the endzone.

Blame for this play falls on one of two people--Ryan or Hawthorne--and it depends on how the team was coached. At first blush, this seems like Ryan's fault for not holding the edge. However, it's possible that Hawthorne should have scraped over the top of the play. Unfortunately, we don't know how Mattison prepared the team for this play, but given Hawthorne's complete disregard for the option, this was either a terrible read by him or Ryan should have kept contain instead of attack the dive play. I'm inclined to say the latter.

While the linebackers are young, these are problems that need to be corrected soon. Northwestern is known for their triple option, and being this unprepared (or possibly just having a huge brain fart) is not sustainable for the future. With four of Michigan's remaining six opponents (Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State) featuring either running quarterbacks or packages for running quarterbacks, correcting these issues will be crucial. At the very least, this acts as a coaching point for the inexperienced linebacker corps.

Counter draw play action

Denard had three unfortunate interceptions against Northwestern, but his first might have been the most regrettable because it wasted one of Al Borges' meticulously setup plays. Against Minnesota, Michigan unveiled the long-awaited counter draw to resounding effect. Though much of that was probably opponent dependent, the basic principles of the play are fundamentally sound. Given Borges' predilection for creating play trees (see: two-way Hopkins, 2011 version of QB Oh Noes, etc.), the conclusion seemed obvious:

In these images, the running back gets slightly more vertical than in the counter play above, but the principles are the same. In all of these, you can see the defensive line and linebackers flowing toward the play, often with sizable holes on the backside of the play. Lewan pulling across the play on the counter is a key to the linebackers, but I would be surprised if Borges doesn't tweak the play with that wrinkle involved to further confuse the defense.

Against Northwestern, Borges did almost exactly that (the pulling lineman was Huyge, not Lewan).

It's second and eight on the team's second drive of the game. Michigan comes out in a three-wide set with Koger lined up on the right side of the line of scrimmage. Vincent smith is in the backfield beside Denard.

On the snap, you can see Huyge step away from the line of scrimmage and begin pulling toward the backside of the play. Northwestern's WLB is blitzing and will be blocked by Huyge. Denard and Smith both take a step to the strongside of the field.

A moment later, Smith has planted his foot and begins running toward the weakside of the field like he would on the counter draw. Huyge is about to block the blitzing WLB.

After the play action, Denard now has a solid pocket with plenty of time to throw. Hemingway was lined up in the slot and will run a seam route. You can see him below running down the middle of the field. Northwestern is playing cover-3, so there's a deep safety that will be covering Hemingway.

Northwestern 2011: Where the defense got stingy

#12 Michigan 42 - Northwestern 24

In five of Michigan's nine losses during the 2008 season, the Wolverines were either ahead or tied at the half. But during the subsequent two quarters, Michigan's offense crumbled and the defense wasn't good enough to prop the team up. Throughout the Rodriguez years, exponential in-game decline became a staple of the team's performance. When the second half rolled around, teams would adjust to Michigan's schemes. Rodriguez and company seemed unconcerned and for the most part ran the same plays they had shown in the first half. Some of that was necessity: Michigan had a young, inexperienced team and the coaches were slowly implementing their offense. That's the excuse Rodriguez defenders would use, anyway. Critics only saw brazen disregard for the opposition's schematic adjustments and a lack of concern for a crumbling on-field product.

The first half against Northwestern is one that Michigan will want to forget. Denard threw three interceptions and the defense was being dissected by the Dan Persa-led Wildcats. In the last three years, when Michigan was dominated as thoroughly as they had been in the first half Saturday, it was usually en route to an Ohio State or Wisconsin pummeling. On Saturday, something was different, and it wasn't just Denard identifying who was and wasn't on his team and throwing it to the right players.

True that Northwestern is known for these types of defensive collapses/shootouts. Just the week before, they lost a double digit lead to Illinois. But holding Northwestern's offense to 161 second-half yards--79 of which came in garbage time--and no points is impressive regardless of who's playing. When it's the Defense Formerly Known as Smoldering Crater, it's a minor miracle. Though through six games, Greg Mattison could favorably be described as just that: a miracle worker. Mattison, Hoke, and the defensive staff have turned JT Floyd into a legitimate Big Ten corner, Jordan Kovacs into an All Big Ten performer, and changed Will Campbell from a giant body that gets pushed around to a giant body that stands still.

When Hoke was first hired, a few coaches around the country said it's not a matter of if Hoke wins a national championship but when. After the strides made by the team since Hoke's arrival, those claims start inching toward reality. Lots of things have to go right to win a national championship, but if this coaching staff can turn this collection of Wolverines into a Big Ten title contender (albeit in arguably the worst Big Ten in 10--20?--years), the chances of them turning their own prospects and players into a national championship team are in reach. The flexibility and ingenuity of the coaching staff mean only good things for the future.

That's a long way off, and any talk of national championships is premature. What this performance means currently is that Michigan has a very real chance of beating everyone on their schedule this year. Honestly, at this point, would you bet against Mattison, Borges, and Hoke?

Comments

• I think it's fair to say that Denard's struggles in the passing game this year weren't a function of the abscess he had removed from his elbow prior to the Minnesota game. For any struggling quarterback's ills, it's clear that Minnesota is the panacea. Denard's interceptions against Northwestern are some of the worst that he's ever thrown. They were no where near his receivers and in at least one case, probably took away a touchdown. He even threw an interception on the brilliant counter draw play action (which, yes, will be picture paged).
• Non-Denard rushers had a rough game. Despite Northwestern's putrid run defense performance against Army, it looks like their run defense might be for real. Seeing as they had more success against Michigan's running game than any other team this season (or last, possibly), I don't expect Michigan's running game to be significantly slowed going forward.
• I'm really not a fan of Devin Gardner taking snaps when Denard is healthy. I'm even more worried about the jet sweeps that Denard was running. This seems like a surefire way to get him drilled by linebackers. Michigan has much better ways of picking up six yards than running Denard in a wonky trick play.
• Persa completed a lot of passes (32/44) for a lot of yards (331), but I don't think the secondary had an especially poor day. Courtney Avery continues to struggle and Blake Countess got beaten once, but otherwise, the secondary was par for the course.
• The front seven looked solid, often getting to Persa and and clogging the middle of the field. Northwestern's leading rusher had 31 yards on five carries. Most of NW's rushing yards came on triple option plays that the linebackers lost contain on. Fortunately, Kovacs and his  Mighty Mites in the secondary wrapped up everyone before they could do too much damage.
• The I-formation returned and if I can recall, it wasn't totally awful. That's a change but not totally unexpected. Michigan is still far more effective from the shotgun, but using it as a change of pace (and not in Totally Surprising Third and One Carry) might be beneficial.

Next week
Michigan travels to East Lansing to face MSU on Saturday. The Spartans are coming off of a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for the only game that matters. This'll be an interesting matchup. The Spartans offensive line is basically non-existent, turning Kirk Cousins from potential All Big Ten QB to just a guy, and it makes their lethal RB tandem a lot less, ya know, lethal. They've also had two weeks to prepare. We'll see what Hoke et al have in their bag of tricks for this game.

Preview: Northwestern 2011

---

  #12 Michigan (5-0) vs. Northwestern (2-2)

Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois

Kickoff 7 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid 70s

---

Last week
Northwestern 35 - Illinois 38. Northwestern blew a late lead against Illinois in spectacularly Michigan 2010 fashion: after building up a pretty sizable lead, starting QB Dan Persa was knocked out of the game and the Wildcat secondary decided it would be more beneficial to their team not to cover anyone. This enabled Nathan Scheelhaase to lead the Illini to a last minute victory as he ran for the go-ahead touchdown with 13 seconds left on the clock.

Scheelhaase was 21/32 with three touchdowns and one interception. He also average 12.2 yards per attempt which is, urm, ludicrous, especially given Scheelhaase's, shall we say, less than stellar passing resume. The Northwestern rushing defense looked competent, at least. The Illinois rushing attack was held to 2.2 YPC on 38 carries, which is surprising after Army lit up the Northwestern defense for 5.1 YPC on 75 (!!!!) carries. Even with caveats about option offenses, that's an incomprehensibly bad performance.

On offense, the Wildcats had a good day until Persa went down. He was 10/14 through the air with 4 TDs to no interceptions, and averaged 8.8 YPA. They struggled to run the ball, though, averaging only 3.3 YPC on 51 rushes. That's reasonable, however, after the NW starting running back Mike Trumpy was lost (likely for the season) during the game.

Minnesota 0 - #19 Michigan 58. I do not condone war crimes and feel it's inappropriate to discuss this publicly. I will say that I think it was irresponsible for Brady Hoke to send his players on the field against those malnourished refugee children.

Offense vs. Northwestern
Over the last several weeks, Al Borges has been gradually phasing out the I-formation from the offense and utilizing various spread tactics. Michigan is using the zone read possibly at a more frequent clip than they were last year, while Borges has brought back the QB Oh Noes, introduced the speed option and counter draw, and just hinted at the triple option. All of this has made for an offense that hasn't taken a step back from its astronomical numbers last year.

Despite those wrinkles, Michigan is not going to be as successful on the ground against Northwestern as Army was, but they will fare better than Illinois. Both Fitz Toussaint and Vincent Smith have been having breakout seasons, flip flopping who is the nominal starter. With Toussaint being the better runner and Smith the better all-purpose back, Michigan will continue to rotate both through. They might have to against a large defensive front seven. Northwestern's linebackers average 235 lbs while the defensive line features two 300-pounders and two Craig Roh+s at defensive end.

The Wildcat passing defense is an absolute train wreck, however. Despite one of its four opponents only attempting seven passes (and only completing one of those), Northwestern is 88th in pass efficiency defense and 81st in passing yards allowed per game. If Denard's Minnesota performance wasn't a mirage, he should be able to carve up a Northwestern secondary that hasn't really put up a fight against anyone. It will be interesting to see whether or not Borges tries to attack the secondary by taking shots downfield again or whether he sticks with the dink-and-dunking that the team ran against Minnesota.

Defense vs. Northwestern
Northwestern's passing attack has been nonexistent to date, but that's due to Persa not playing rather than a referendum on the NW wide receivers or offensive line (the Wildcat offense is mostly made up of large, upperclassmen types). As mentioned above, Persa went 10/14 passing with 4 touchdowns before being knocked out of the game. That lingering injury might be a godsend for the Wolverines defense. Persa has a habit of showing up in big games and playing out of his mind. If he's slowed by his persisting Achilles injury, that'll reduce his effectiveness on the ground, allowing Michigan to key on whoever Northwestern has replaced Trumpy with.

If Persa is forced the put the ball in the air because of an ineffectual ground game, it'll be interesting to see what Greg Mattison does with his coverage schemes and blitzes. He has (likely intentionally) run basic schemes for the last two weeks, which is a far cry from the blitz-crazy formations Michigan used in the first few weeks. Northwestern is not an opponent that Michigan can sit back against. Forcing long down and distance will be a huge, though if Mattison blitzes too aggressively (or drops the wrong lineman into coverage on a zone blitz), Northwestern has the speed and talent to break a long one.

This is ultimately a good matchup for Michigan. With a defensive line that's starting to get its swagger and an injured NW rushing attack, Michigan should be able to get the Wildcats into lethal down and distances where Mattison can bring blitzes from all over the field. The cornerbacks, who can actually cover this year, will be asked to as this will be their first chance to defend against a quarterback that's not fumbling the ball behind him or chucking it 10 yards over a receiver's head.

Prediction
Over the course of the first five weeks of the season, this game went from a toss-up like substance to a pretty confident victory. Michigan's defense is so much improved, and the NW offense is so hampered, that it will be difficult to move the ball down the field. Michigan will probably give up a play of 35+ yards in this game after a risky blitz call, but otherwise, Mattison's defense should get negative plays and force Persa to throw in some uncomfortable situations.

Offensively, the key will be whether or not Denard can connect with what are sure to be blitheringly wide-open receivers. I would guess that Northwestern keys pretty heavily on the rushing attack and holds Michigan below their season averages in yards per game and yards per carry. Michigan will, however, break out the triple option a few times in this game to good effect. And I'd bet that Borges has one or two new plays/formations that Michigan hasn't shown this year. Devin Gardner and Denard will not be on the field at the same time during the game, though.

Michigan 38 - Northwestern 24