Preview: Nebraska 2012

---

#22 Michigan vs. Nebraska

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Neb

Kickoff 8:00 pm EST

ESPN2

Forecast: Low-50s, 0% chance of rain 

---

Nebraska Last Week
Through 55 minutes and 50 seconds last week, Nebraska had amassed a total of 387 total yards of offense against Northwestern, but managed only 16 points, thanks in large part to two lost fumbles. In its last two full drives, Nebraska racked up 156 yards, almost all on the arm of Taylor Martinez (11/13 for 143 yards and 2 TDs). For the game, Martinez threw for 342 yards on 39 attempts (8.8 YPA) and three touchdowns. On the ground, Martinez added 65 yards on 18 carries.

Defensively, Nebraska mostly shut down Northwestern's rushing attack. Venric Mark was able to rack up 116 yards on 18 carries, but he was the only one and largely because of an 80-yard run on a blown play by the Nebraska middle linebacker Will Compton (the team's leading tackler). Northwestern's offense isn't what it has been the last few years, but holding them to only 301 yards is still an accomplishment.

Offense vs. Nebraska

Since Michigan's offensive output generally comes down to how well Denard will fare in the passing game, Nebraska presents a unique problem: the Cornhuskers rank eighth in the nation in sacks with 21 total (3.14 per game). The charge is led by senior weakside defensive end terror Eric Martin (pictured). Martin has 5.5 sacks and 8 TFLs already this season. He also has 7 QB hits, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery. Shutting down Martin will be critical to winning this game, so expect Devin Funchess or another tight end to line up next to Schofield all game, forcing Martin to rush against Taylor Lewan. Martin isn't the only pass rusher, though. There are four different players on the Nebraska roster with at least two sacks this year and 13 with at least a half of a sack. For a quarterback who is prone to backfoot throws when he gets pressure, this kind of pass-rush spells doom for Michigan.

Nebraska is able to generate that kind of production because they play a lot of man coverage, both in its base formation and blitz coverage (though they don't blitz much). The 80-yard touchdown run that Nebraska allowed against Northwestern was the direct result of Will Compton being pulled to the flat trying to cover running back leaking out of the backfield. If anything could be gleaned from last week's matchup, it's that Nebraska is susceptible to counters and misdirection because of their aggressive man defense.

Despite all of the man coverage, Nebraska is an impressive 18th in pass efficiency defense. Michigan's receivers are going to struggle to get off the line against the Cornhusker cornerbacks. Josh Mitchell and Stanley Jean-Baptiste both play strong man coverage, and Michigan's wide receivers have had trouble with physical corners. Safeties Daimion Stafford and PJ Smith are also decent in coverage but are more of a factor in the run game, ranking second and third in tackles. Victimizing Nebraska's safeties and linebackers with play action is something Northwestern did often last week. Al Borges probably won't want to do this.

Those safeties have to be aggressive against the run because defensive tackle Baker Steinkuhler is a wiry 6'6" 290 lbs. That's one of the reasons that Nebraska is 90th in rushing defense this year. The other reason: if you make it past the defensive line, as long as you've spread the field, there's a good chance you're not going to see another defender until the safeties come into play. Making the proper reads in the option game and getting some blockers to the second level will be crucial for Michigan to spring big plays.

The best part about playing against Nebraska this year as opposed to 2011: no Lavonte David, the team's unquestioned leader and best defensive player last year. David stopped quite a few Denard runs last year from being 80-yarders with shoestring tackles. Despite generally solid linebacker play, if Michigan can get Denard or Toussaint in space against these linebackers, that's a win for the Wolverines.

Defense vs. Nebraska

You know Taylor Martinez, but you might not know 2012 Taylor Martinez. Though he's still not an elite passer, he's been significantly better this season, completing 67% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and a 15 TD/4 INT rate. Those are some scary numbers. However, his stats are significantly worse against teams with respectable defenses (UCLA, Wisconsin, Ohio State; 49/85, 57.6%, 574 yards, 6.75 YPA, 3 TD/4 INT).

It will be interesting to see what Michigan can do against Martinez. When he has time in the pocket, Martinez can make all of the throws, but Nebraska ranks 76th in sacks allowed. The problem is, Michigan can't generate a pass rush without blitzing. Greg Mattison finding ways to confuse Martinez without giving up too much in the run game may be the most important task he has all season.

Nebraska's rushing attack is still elite, averaging 279 yards per game (good for 6th in the country). Rex Burkhead is coming back from a leg injury that kept him out of a lot of the Northwestern game. Last year, Burkhead was the hot commodity coming into Nebraska's game against Michigan, but managed only 36 yards on 10 carries. Martinez wasn't much better on the ground or through the air, but the latter of which we've already addressed.

I'm frankly not worried about Nebraska's rushing attack (famous last words, I know). I have implicit faith in Mattison's ability to scheme for and prepare his players for any offensive attack that can't simply overpower Michigan with talent (see: Alabama). Mattison knows how these spread attacks work because a) he was Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida and b) he goes against Denard Robinson in practice every week.

The key to winning this side of the ball will be the defensive line. Quinton Washington and Will Campbell are basically constants, and Craig Roh has been a good-to-great strongside defensive end. Jibreel Black and Frank Clark at the weakside defensive end will have to stay disciplined against the option and stick to whatever gameplan Mattison has designed (play the QB or the RB). If it's Black at WDE, his lack of speed may be an issue, but if Clark can step into the role, that should help nullify Nebraska speed.

If the defensive line can hold up, Kenny Demens, Desmond Morgan, and Jake Ryan against running backs in space will decide how this game goes for Nebraska offensively. Though Martinez has a lot of straight-line speed and a little bit of shake to him, none of Nebraska's running backs are threatening in the open field.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Getting pressure on Taylor Martinez will be crucial. If they can force Martinez to complete closer to 50%-55% of his passes, Mattison can start loading up against the run. Jake Ryan will be responsible for a lot of this pass rush as he has been all season long. He will have to stay disciplined keeping outside leverage and make sure to wrap up in the backfield. JT Floyd and Raymon Taylor are going to have their hands full with Nebraska's taller wide receivers, which is another reason pass rush will be critical.

Offensively, Michigan needs to get Denard to the second level. Nebraska's linebackers are aggressive downhill and just watched Michigan run head first into MSU's linebackers for 60 minutes. If Patrick Omameh and Ricky Barnum can get to the second level and block Nebraska's linebackers, Denard will be able to pick up big chunks of yards. In the passing game, Denard and Borges need to find an effective way to attack man-to-man coverage down the field.

How does Nebraska win? Keep doing what they've been doing. If Martinez is completing 67% of his passes in this game, Michigan is sunk. The Nebraska coaching staff varies their run game as well as almost anyone in the country. Keeping Michigan's defensive line on its heels with multiple option looks will further slow down the Wolverines' already inept pass rush. They will, however, need to find a way to get big plays from non-Martinez ball carriers.

Defensively, Nebraska needs to keep generating the pass rush they've gotten all season. Though Denard has cut down his terrible, backfoot throws since the Notre Dame game, the kind of pressure Nebraska generates could see a return to that inconsistency. If the linebackers can stop Denard and Toussaint from breaking long plays, a physical secondary will be able to stop Michigan's passing game.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 41.031%

Final Prediction. Offensively, expect Al Borges to utilize the counter draw that Michigan has shown a few times this year and last, as well as the throwback screen, both of which will punish Nebraska's linebackers for overpursuing. Denard and Toussaint both break 30+ yard runs as Nebraska linebackers get caught out of position. However, Denard throws two interceptions, both of which are meaningful and not end-of-half heaves.

Martinez will complete more deep, downfield throws in this game than Michigan has allowed all season, but none of them go for touchdowns; they're heaves to wide receivers who can out-leap and out-muscle Michigan's corners. However, Michigan holds Nebraska to near 150 yards rushing. It's boom-or-bust for Nebraska's offense. Michigan finally gets a good kick/punt return. Nebraska rallies late but Michigan clutches to the win. Michigan 27 - Nebraska 24

Quinton Washington can shed your block

Despite the fantastic year that Jake Ryan is having, Michigan's most improved defensive player is still Quinton Washington, with a bullet. Washington, along with Will Campbell, are major reasons that Michigan was able to shut down Le'Veon Bell against Michigan State. What follows is another piece of evidence in favor of Quinton Washington for President and one of the best examples of a Michigan defender getting off a block to make a play that we've seen all season.

Michigan has just punted after a three-and-out following Michigan State's only touchdown drive of the game. MSU comes out in a two-wide I-formation look. Michigan is in its pseudo-nickel with Jake Ryan lined up over the slot receiver and only two linebackers in the box. Michigan's defensive ends are shaded just outside the offensive tackles while Will Campbell is covering the strongside guard and Washington is in the weakside A-gap.

As the ball is snapped, Washington engages the right guard (highlighted). The MSU center is chip blocking Washington before releasing to the second level. MSU is running a weakside-iso.

MSU's center is now releasing to the second level to block Kenny Demens. Washington and Roh and singled up on the MSU right guard and tackle, respectively.

This is the moment of truth for Le'Veon Bell. He has to make one of two cuts. Desmond Morgan is in good position on the backside run fill, but he's only able to fill this hole because Will Campbell has stopped the MSU left guard from releasing to the second level. Bell is forced to cut to his right.

But Bell didn't expect Washington to annihilate the MSU right guard. The lane that was clear for Bell a moment ago is now occupied by Washington. Bell is forced the bounce the run outside again, but Craig Roh is getting good push on the MSU right tackle.

Washington is now lunging to tackle Bell. He won't make the tackle, but he's already accomplished his goal. In a moment, you'll see JT Floyd flying downhill as Bell tries to bounce outside Roh.

Bell has now totally broken contain, which allows Roh to release from the MSU right tackle and chase Bell. Floyd is now the contain defender running downhill to tackle Bell, but he's making sure to maintain outside leverage.

But why keep contain when you can just chop down Bell mid-stride?

Video

The Takeaway
I'm starting a Kickstarter. It will raise money to buy Greg Mattison pies. Let me know if you're interested.

When coaches talk about players needing better technique, getting off blocks better, and maintaining leverage, this is the play that they show in the film room. It all starts with the defensive line: Will Campbell nullified the MSU left guard allowing Desmond Morgan to fill the backside run gap; Craig Roh kept outside contain, forcing Bell to bounce to the sideline and allowing Michigan's secondary to come downhill and attack the ball carrier; and Quinton Washington stayed firm on his blocker and was able to shed the block to cut off Bell's primary running lane.

This is the kind of performance the defensive line has been turning in all season and something that was unthinkable two years ago. The discipline to stay in the proper lanes is one thing, but Campbell recognizing he needs to stop the MSU lineman from releasing to the linebackers and Washington's ability to toss aside MSU's blocker in order to make the proper run fill are examples of coaching that the team didn't get under the previous regime.

How Vincent Smith saved Michigan's season

During Michigan's game-saving two-minute drill against MSU, one play stands out as the most unexpected and perhaps most important play of the game: Vincent Smith's 12-yard first down run to move the chains and stop the clock. The thing is, he never should have touched the ball, but because of a terrible read by Denard, Smith had to engage super-ninja mode to get any positive yardage.

It is first and 10 with exactly two minutes left on the clock. Michigan has just forced a three-and-out against MSU to get the ball back. Taking a tackle for loss here would be devastating: Michigan would either lose 10-15 seconds or have to burn its only remaining timeout. Michigan comes out in a four-wide, one-back set. MSU is in a nickel package with four down linemen. The playside defensive end is actually Max Bullough Marcus Rush.

As the ball is snapped, Bullough Rush (highlighted) is left unblocked by Taylor Lewan. The only problem is Denard is reading one of the linebackers and fails to see Bullough standing there.

Michigan is running the inverted veer here, so if the defensive end stays high like he is, Denard is supposed to pull the ball and head upfield. The linebacker that Denard is currently reading is actually the assignment of Patrick Omameh who is pulling across the formation. But because that linebacker is staying in the middle of the field rather than bouncing out to defend the Smith run, Denard hands the ball off.

Omameh has now pulled around the formation and is about to block the MSU linebacker that Denard was reading. Meanwhile, Bullough has started to move outside to contain Smith.

I mean holy crap:

[insert Chris Berman noise]

Denard squares up to block someone, but the rest is all Smith...

....sneaking through defenders to pick up the first down.

Video

The Takeaway
Under Borges' system, Denard has spent a lot of time reading linebackers on the option, but this is an emphatically bad read. MSU's best player had Vincent Smith dead-to-rights in the backfield on the game-winning drive until Smith reminded everyone why he's Michigan's best space player. There's a reason Rodriguez utilized Smith so much on passes out of the backfield and running plays: if you get him into the open field with a single defender, he's going to make that guy miss. Do you trust Fitz Toussaint to make that cut this year or would you expect him to try and bounce outside past Bullough? Not only does Smith keep this play alive, but he makes it past the first down marker, stopping the clock and allowing Michigan to set up the rest of the drive.

All hail Vincent Smith, Michigan's most underrated player for three-years running.

Running into a brick wall

I said in my game column yesterday that Michigan's offense was incoherent against MSU: they didn't test the Spartans' defense deep despite safeties playing 8 yards from the line of scrimmage and they didn't test the defense horizontally to put a strain on overly aggressive linebackers. The other problem was that Borges called running plays on 19 of Michigan's 26 first downs, including 9 of 11 in the first half. What you'll see below will not surprise you: MSU's safeties are less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage on a 1st and 10 early in the game. Borges calls a running play, doesn't audible, and the results are exactly what you'd expect.

It's 1st and 10 early in the first quarter. There was absolutely no reason for MSU's safeties to be cheating as strongly as they are in this alignment other than Borges has obvious tendencies that can be exploited. As such, Michigan's three-wide, one-back set gets defended like this:

Jeremy Gallon begins to run across the formation on a jet sweep.

As the ball is snapped, look at the leverage of MSU's linebackers and safeties: all but one of them is on the balls of his toes and running toward the line of scrimmage.

By the time Gallon has passed Denard who will utilize Fitz Toussaint as a lead blocker, MSU's three linebackers are two yards from the line of scrimmage. Their two safeties are no more than six yards from the line of scrimmage.

One of MSU's linebackers is already beyond the LOS. Fitz Toussaint will block him as the lead blocker, leaving an MSU safety (highlighted) unblocked to hit Denard in the hole. Notice that both Denard and the safety are equidistant from the LOS.

Seeing an unblocked safety (highlighted) already at the line of scrimmage, Denard cuts back inside...

.... and is clobbered.

Video

The Takeaway
This is fucking infuriating. There was no doubt in the minds of MSU's linebackers or safeties; Michigan is running and there's no chance of Denard pulling up to throw here. Look, for example, at Gallon who is effectively running a wheel route. Who's covering him? Roy Roundtree runs into the screen to try and block anyone, but if he had run a route downfield, he would've had one-on-one coverage. For Borges, a guy who claims to want to attack vertically, this should be his bread and butter. Instead, it's a one-yard loss because he ran the ball on 73% of Michigan's first downs. This is untenable. If Michigan doesn't develop play action off of its base offensive sets or at least start breaking tendency, mounting a consistent offensive attack against good defenses will be impossible.

Righting the ship

Michigan State 10 - Michigan 12
Preview

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Michigan football is in a very weird place. Every year before the Michigan/Michigan State game, the senior sports writers from the schools' respective student newspapers write dueling columns. They're generally childish and stupid and not very well written (in this year's edition, MSU's writer closed with jokes about Tito Jackson and Entourage: biting, relevant insults if I've ever heard them). But I don't read them for sharp quips. I read them specifically because they make me kind of angry. This year, there was a disturbance in the force:

With each new season, I get the pleasure of hearing about the Wolverine resurgence, how this will be the year they’ll run roughshod over the Big Ten and the Spartans — and then get to watch Michigan’s season fall apart following a loss at the hands of “non-rival” Michigan State.

Each season, I get to hear about Denard Robinson’s Heisman candidacy before Michigan has played a game, how the sophomore, then junior, now senior quarterback will shatter every NCAA Division-I record en route to New York for the trophy presentation. And each year, Robinson blows up in spectacular fashion — though this season’s fall from grace was my personal favorite, when he threw four interceptions on four straight passing attempts against Notre Dame.

But please, tell me again how “Shoelace” torched an 0-6 Massachusetts team fresh from Division II for 397 total yards and four touchdowns. That impresses me.

There are Michigan State students that believe this is how the world works. This is comical in its lack of historical context.

Some time in the last 5 years, Michigan went from a program so dominant over its in-state rival that Mike Hart calling MSU "little brother" became a relevant meme and talking point for the media and both programs, to a team that's known as the Big Ten's Wile E. Coyote, hatching elaborate plans that go hilariously awry. There might be some truth to that perception. Michigan students rushed the field after eeking by an unranked 4-3 Michigan State team. I understand the reasoning: no undergrads have experienced the joy of beating the Spartans before, but Act Like You've Been There Before is an obligation, not a suggestion for haughty Michigan fans. We're the worst.

But righting the ship was always Brady Hoke's goal. You get the impression that one of the reasons Hoke would have walked to Michigan from San Diego is that he was pained by Michigan's free fall. In 20 games at the helm of the Maize and Blue, Brady Hoke is 16-4, undefeated at home, holds wins over Michigan's two primary rivals, and has a BCS bowl win. With Saturday's win over Michigan State, winning a Big Ten championship remains the only hurdle left for Brady Hoke's Michigan to leap.

This team is not without faults or free of concerns (notably, Al Borges' continued indifference to winning games or even picking up first downs), but it's hard not to feel like this team is being curated expertly by Hoke. With every new accomplishment, victory, and high-ranked recruit, Michigan inches closer to the program everyone fears instead of the one that keeps running into the tunnel painted onto the side of a mountain.

Bullets

• Michigan's terrible offensive output falls on the shoulders of Al Borges (again). Consider the following chart of Michigan's run/pass split on 1st and 2nd down:

	1st down Run/Pass	Yards	2nd down Run/Pass	Yards	Drive result
	Rush	0	Rush	1	Punt
	Rush	0	Pass	22
	Rush	3	Rush	2
	Rush	-3	Pass	-2	Punt
	Rush	4	Rush	0
End of 1st
	Pass	Inc	Pass	-1
	Rush	38
	Rush	-6	Rush	5	FG
	Rush	4	Rush	-3	Punt
	Pass	35
	Rush	4	Pass	Inc	FG
End of 2nd
	Rush	8	Rush	5
	Rush	14
	Rush	4	Rush	-4	Punt
	Rush	0	Pass	Inc	Punt
	Pass	Inc	Rush	-6	Punt
	Rush	12
	Pass	Inc	Pass	5
End of 3rd
	Rush	2	Pass	13
	Rush	7	Pass	Inc	FG
	Pass	Inc	Rush	44
	Rush	6	Rush	-3	Punt
	Rush	12
	Rush	0	Pass	3
	Pass	1	Pass	20
	Pass	Inc			FG

• Michigan threw the ball on only 7 of 26 first downs, and MSU knew it. Michigan averaged 8.47 yards to go on second down, largely because Borges kept running directly into the face of Michigan State blitzes. This was apparent to everyone watching the game, notably Pat Narduzzi who was licking his chops as Michigan continued to get behind the chains early.

• Michigan's other problem offensively:
  
  
  
  
  Look at where Michigan State's safties are lined up: seven yards (seven!!!!) from the line of scrimmage. Michigan tested the MSU defense vertically only once or twice the entire game. They also rarely used play action, so when Michigan showed run, they were running into a box with 9 players in it. Michigan's offensive structure/scheme against this defense was incoherent.
• Le'Veon Bell: Still not terrifying. Bell could only muster 68 yards on 26 carries (2.8 YPC) with a long of 8 yards. His game is simply to run into the nearest defender and try to carry him four yards downfield. With players like Jake Ryan laying the lumber on Bell and not Boise State's undersized linebackers, that play style becomes a lot less intimidating (and effective). His offensive line clearly couldn't get a lot of push in this game, but Bell was never able to outrun Michigan defenders to get into space or make something out of nothing. He's one dimensional and Michigan exploited that in this game.
• Andrew Maxwell is not a very good QB. If this were his freshman or sophomore year, you could make excuses for his performances this season, but he's a junior without much upside. Against Michigan he completed 61% of his passes (his second highest completion percentage this season;  against Central Michigan he completed 64.5%) but only averaged 5.64 YPA. His interception was bad and was largely responsible for Michigan winning the game.
• Raise your hand if before the game, you thought Drew Dileo, Matt Wile, and Brendan Gibbons would be the most important players in this game. No one? Really? Wile finally delivered on the promise of being a big-legged field goal kicker. In case you were wondering, yes that was Wile's first field goal attempt in a Michigan uniform. And Dileo did exactly what he's always done at Michigan: catch absolutely everything thrown his way. I'll have to rewatch the game to see how he got so open on the final play, but that may be a season-defining catch.
• The dropped touchdown pass by Gallon was unfortunate and I think it was caused by a miscommunication between Gallon and Denard. I'm giving Denard the benefit of the doubt here, but I think he was expecting Gallon to settle down in the zone where Denard threw the pass. That may not be the case--there's a good chance Denard just made a bad throw--but regardless, that catch needs to be made.
• Speaking of dropped passes, someone please teach Devin Gardner how to catch in traffic.
• Taylor Lewan is desperately trying to convince everyone that he's not an All-American left tackle. He needs to get these penalties in check and sort out his blocking protections because he's been disappointing this season. The only way this benefits Michigan is if it forces him to return for his senior season.
• Will Gholston may need to stick around for his senior season to erase his reputation against Michigan as a total non-factor.

Prediction Tracker

Denard's rushing totals take a major hit in this game, but Toussaint finally finds some lanes to run through. MSU understands the threat of Denard's legs and have probably gamplanned to stay home on him on all option plays. There will be a fumble generated on a linebacker blitz against an option play. Also, we'll see the return of Denard's back-foot heaves that end serendipitously, mostly thrown to Devin Gardner who makes a few astonishing catches in traffic.

On the other side of the ball, MSU won't be able to get rolling all game. Michigan's linebackers completely shut down Bell who averages ~3 YPC. Maxwell, meanwhile, will have a higher completion percentage than you'd expect but also throws two costly interceptions.

Saturday proves to still be relatively low-scoring, however. Both teams stall out just outside of field goal range a few times and there is at least one missed field goal. Michigan State 9 - Michigan 20

Denard's rushing totals were down a bit but Toussaint still couldn't get things rolling. No fumbles or backfoot throws. MSU couldn't get started, though, save two second-half drives. Bell averaged 2.6 YPC and Maxwell threw a really costly interception.

Next Week
Saturday's game against Nebraska will probably determine who wins the Legends division. Beating Nebraska puts Michigan two games ahead of everyone in the division save Terrible Iowa, who has been unexpectedly competent. Nebraska is 12th in points per game but 72nd in points against. Given how Michigan has fared against rushing attacks the last three weeks, Nebraska shouldn't be too much trouble, but they have the potential to beat the Wolverines, especially at night in Lincoln.