Preview: Michigan State 2012

---

Michigan State vs. Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

Big Ten Network

Forecast: Mid-50s, 20% chance of rain 

---

MSU Last Week

Iowa 19 - MSU 16 (2OT). Andrew Maxwell, intent on bringing back Sparty No! threw a pick in the second half of double overtime to end the Spartans bid to beat inexplicably 4-2 Iowa. Le'Veon Bell had his best game of the season and finally looked like the dangerous running back he's rumored to be but still only managed 4.8 YPC (albeit on 29 carries). Andrew Maxwell is still an inexperienced, inconsistent quarterback that is most certainly not Kirk Cousins. Against Iowa, he threw 12/31 for 179 yards and 1 INT. Maxwell has a lively arm but accuracy is a major concern. The only MSU wide receiver that anyone ever needs to be scared of is Aaron Burbridge who had 89 yards on five catches.

Iowa was worse than MSU but somehow managed the win. Supposed-to-be best QB in the conference James Vandenberg was terrible, completing just 19 of 36 passes for 134 yards (3.7 YPA). Don't let those numbers fool you: not even checkdowns were a guarantee. Iowa's only running back with two legs, Mark Weisman, ran stride for stride with Bell, averaging 4.5 YPC on 26 carries.

This was a game of incompetent offenses that someone had to win. Iowa was the beneficiary of the game's most critical turnover (Maxwell's in 2OT) which decided the outcome.

(I'm removing what Michigan did last week from this section because you know what happened last week.)

Offense vs. Michigan State

Michigan State's defense is the only thing that's kept them in games this season because their offense is atrocious. MSU ranks 8th in rushing yards per game allowed, 12th in pass efficiency defense, and 14th in scoring defense. The other side of the coin is that the Spartans haven't played anyone this year that can really fill up the scoreboard. The only team with a respectable offense (Indiana, of all teams; 31st in points per game) put up 27 points in the first half against MSU before being shut down in the second half (more on this later).

The Spartans are led, not surprisingly, by junior middle linebacker Max Bullough who has 31 solo tackles, 27 assists, 5.5 TFLs, 2 PBUs, and a forced fumble. Bullough is the real deal: a great downfield run stuffer who can drop into coverage and is never caught out of position. Think Kenny Demens' ceiling. At the SLB spot is junior Denicos Allen who is the team's second leading tackler in his second year as the starter. And at the WLB position will be senior Chris Norman.

Combined, the starting linebackers account for 12.5 TFLs of the team's 38. This is an aggressive, blitzing group. These tendencies were exploited against Indiana, where the Hoosiers were able to march up and down the field almost exclusively on bubble screens in the first half. With such dogged determination to get into the backfield, MSU's linebackers are susceptible to horizontal attacks. Hopefully Al Borges was watching this game and took notes; tunnel screens back to the inside of the field are not going to end well, but throw bubbles to the boundary and Michigan could find easy first downs all game.

The concern for Michigan against this unit is, like last year, the double A-gap blitz that makes Denard heave balls off his back foot. These are plays that Rimington award winner David Molk struggled to block. Tasking Elliott Mealer with the same responsibilities spells trouble. To slow down Pat Narduzzi's blitzing defense as well as take pressure off the interior of the offensive line, Borges will have to use screen passes extensively.

While the Spartan linebackers are some of the best in the conference, the team's defensive line is suspect save William Gholston, who you know about. The starting DTs senior Anthony Rashad White and sophomore James Kittridge are non-factors. They try to play much like Michigan's defensive tackles: consume as many offensive linemen as possible and give your linebackers a chance to make tackles. Sophomore strongside defensive end Marcus Rush is good-not-great. He's what you want out of a strongside defensive end: holds up against the run, bats down passes at the line of scrimmage, and occasionally gets into the backfield.

Then of course there's Gholston, a pass-rush extraordinaire who has never been very impressive against Michigan/Taylor Lewan. Gholston has 5 TFLs but only one sack this season. Add in 4 PBUs and a forced fumble and his statistical profile fills out a bit. Ace at MGoBlog is down on Gholston:

If there's a weak point on this defense, it's—wait for it—WDE William Gholston, a quarterfinalist for the Lombardi Award based entirely on reputation. He's been benched at times this season for redshirt freshman Joel Heath. There's a reason for this: Gholston can chase plays down from the backside and bat down passes at the line, but if teams run right at him he gets buried regularly

At 6'7", 278 lbs, Gholston is pretty wiry, but he's still a terror in passing situations. Also, excellent backside pursuit is the kind of thing that can destroy an option running game or a hesitant running back (Fitz Toussaint). If Lewan can handle Gholston like he has the last two years, Michigan could dominate this defense, but with lingering injuries to Lewan, that may be a problem.

In the secondary, Darqueze Dennard is one of the better cover corners in the Big Ten and could present some problems for Michigan's receivers getting open. However, he'll likely be tasked with covering Devin Gardner who is a good six inches taller than him.

Defense vs. Michigan State

OK, so, Le'Veon Bell. I will say this now and you will believe me later: Le'Veon Bell is not a great running back. At 6'2", 244 lbs, he's a moose, but he doesn't have the complementary speed to make him truly dangerous. He can occasionally (occasionally) make people miss in space, but otherwise, his running style is to make contact a yard beyond the line of scrimmage and rumble forward for 3 yards. You can blame his offensive line, if you want, but power running backs, regardless of their offensive line, should probably average more than 3.8 YPC against Central Michigan. Combined with a shoddy offensive line, Bell will remind you more of a third-string Wisconsin running back than similar body types from squads like Alabama.

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, MSU's offense is pretty remedial, led of course by the rushing attack of Bell. MSU ranks 84th in rushing offense, 59th in passing offense, and 102nd in scoring. There are plenty of reasons that the offense struggles, but it starts with the Spartans' makeshift offensive line. Starting right tackle Fou Fonoti and center Travis Jackson have each gone down for the season with injuries. Another important injury is to starting tight end Dion Sims who was the team's leading receiver when he went down with a sprained ankle and helped get push in the running game for a mediocre offensive line. On MSU's first snap, they could be starting two redshirt freshman, two sophomores, and a fifth-year senior on their offensive line.

However, Michigan State's offensive line has been a mess the last two years and each season, the Spartans have found a way to grind Michigan's front seven to dust and protect their quarterback. Though I hate this kind of reasoning, I'm glad to see Kirk Cousins go because he was one of those guys that Just Wins against Michigan. Andrew Maxwell may get the same kind of protection that Cousins got against Michigan's defenses, but he doesn't have the kind of consistency or accuracy that Cousins did. Maxwell has a lively arm but not a lot of touch and is highly erratic. He's completing only 54.3% of his passes this season and averaging only 6.28 YPA. Throw in just 6 TDs to 4 INTs and you have the makings for a not great QB. This isn't pressure-induced, either; MSU ranks 40th in sacks allowed.

Perhaps the biggest hindrance to MSU's offense is the lackluster group of wide receivers. No longer is Keshawn Martin running jet sweeps around the edges of the defense or BJ Cunningham getting open everywhere. Though Keith Mumphrey leads the Spartans in receptions and receiving yards, the only threat is freshman Aaron Burbridge, who at 6'1" is not the Michael Floyd pterodactyl type that Michigan's secondary struggles against. Expect MSU to try and take a few uncharacteristic deep shots to Burbridge with JT Floyd in coverage, but unless Maxwell is dropping those in his lap, Michigan's secondary will just have to concern itself with underneath hitch routes and crossing patterns.

How Michigan's defensive line fares against this depleted front of MSU will determine the game. Against the run, expect Quinton Washington and Will Campbell the continue the dominance they showed against Illinois. Tightening running lanes and keeping offensive lineman at the line of scrimmage will allow the linebackers to hit and swarm Bell. When MSU drops back to pass, I actually expect Michigan to blitz a lot less than they have in the past. With a lackluster group of wide receivers and a mediocre offensive line, the defense will be able to rely on coverage sacks rather than getting pressure with linebackers. This also helps defend against MSU's reliance on tight ends in the passing game, flooding underneath zones with linebackers.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? The combination of Maxwell and MSU's receivers are not a threat to Michigan's secondary, the Spartan offensive line is once again shaky, and Bell doesn't have the home-run power to get Michigan into an uncomfortable situation offensively. If the defensive linemen continue to allow the linebackers to make plays, Michigan should be able to shut down MSU's offense.

When Michigan has the ball, testing the edges of the Spartans' defense will be key to opening running lanes and getting Denard time in the pocket to throw. Jet sweeps and bubble screens should keep MSU honest while the rest of Michigan's base offense should be enough to march down the field.

How does Michigan State win? The offensive line has to play its best game of the season for them to give Maxwell time in the pocket and the receivers time to get open. Le'Veon Bell will need to show that he's more than a 3 yards and a cloud of dust star and force Michigan's linebackers to commit fully to the run. This will open up passing lanes off of play action.

Shutting down Michigan's offense will be harder for the Spartans. MSU's linebackers need to return on their potential and Narduzzi's blitzes will need to generate turnovers. MSU can help their cause by finding a way to stop Denard on the inverted veer and forcing Toussaint to make Michigan's rushing yards.

Arbitrary percentage Michigan wins: 60% (I said this before the season and I'm sticking with it)

Final prediction. Denard's rushing totals take a major hit in this game, but Toussaint finally finds some lanes to run through. MSU understands the threat of Denard's legs and have probably gamplanned to stay home on him on all option plays. There will be a fumble generated on a linebacker blitz against an option play. Also, we'll see the return of Denard's back-foot heaves that end serendipitously, mostly thrown to Devin Gardner who makes a few astonishing catches in traffic.

On the other side of the ball, MSU won't be able to get rolling all game. Michigan's linebackers completely shut down Bell who averages ~3 YPC. Maxwell, meanwhile, will have a higher completion percentage than you'd expect but also throws two costly interceptions.

Saturday proves to still be relatively low-scoring, however. Both teams stall out just outside of field goal range a few times and there is at least one missed field goal. Michigan State 9 - Michigan 20

Progress Report: The defense

Previously: The offense

Defensive Tackle

Grade: A

No position on Michigan's depth chart caused more consternation preseason than the defensive tackle position. Options consisted of: a middling senior (Campbell), OL convert (Washington), DE convert (black), redshirt sophomore who hadn't seen any playing time (Richard Ash), or an oversized true freshman (Ondre Pipkins).

What this team needs from Campbell is an every-down nose tackle/3-tech DT that can hold up against the run and generate nominal pressure against the pass. Having a penetrating DT the likes of Martin is a luxury, not a necessity for great defenses. The pass rush from the defensive line should be generated primarily by the defensive ends (about which more later), not the inside. If Campbell can stay gap sound and hold his ground against double teams on the run, Michigan's experienced linebackers should be able to make the proper reads and tackle...

Because [Washington]'s going to be a starter, the coaches have been pumping him up throughout camp, praising his abilities. At 6'4", 300 lbs, he won't be much of a slasher, but he may be able to hold his ground much like Campbell. As a position switch, leverage and technique remain a concern, but if he can stay sound in the middle, Michigan should remain stout against the run and rely on blitzes and the defensive ends for pass rush.

Six games later, Michigan's defensive tackles may be the second-best unit on the defense.

Quinton Washington is a runaway candidate for most-improved player on Michigan's roster and perhaps in the conference. Washington's (and Will Campbell's) contributions have been a little harder to quantify, though: through six games, Washington has marked 8 solo tackles, 10 assists, and 2 TFLs. His totals last year? Nine games played, one tackle. Obviously playing time is a factor here. Washington was backing up ironman Mike Martin (who, for reference, ended the season with 20 solo tackles, 44 assists, and 6 TFLs; Washington won't match those numbers, but the coaches have asked hi to play a different style of football), but even in his spot duty, Washington was a liability. Now, he's proven concerns about his technique unfounded and has been exactly what Michigan needs: a strong body in the middle of the formation that can get push against guards and hold up to double teams, allowing linebackers to make plays.

The other pleasant surprise this year has been the development of Will Campbell into a similar immovable force on the defensive line. Campbell's 2012 stat line is similar to Washington's: 9 solo tackles, 9 assists, 1 TFL, 1 sack (he tallied 5 tackles, 9 assists, 2.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks in 2011). Like Washington, Campbell will never be the slashing nose tackle/3-tech that Mike Martin was. What he has done is become a reliable interior lineman who holds up to double teams and allowed those the linebackers behind him to fill the gaps.

One of the reasons Michigan's defensive line has been so successful is because of Greg Mattison's reliance on slants. Campbell and Washington have both proven to have good first steps playside on slants enabling them to cut into the backfield. These slants have also produced simplified reads for the linebackers to clean up plays on the backside.

The defensive tackle position has seen a lot of rotation this season. In nickel packages/passing situations, Craig Roh and Jibreel Black have assumed the DT positions. And to give the starters a blow, Ondre Pipkins has been rotating onto the field with regularity, especially in the last few games. Pipkins has returned middling results, occasionally showing the ability to hold up to double teams and get push off the ball, but also being blown back on various run plays. Defensive tackles take time to develop and Pipkins will be a project.

Going Forward
This unit projects to improve as the season progresses. Hoke and Mattison are magicians, of this, I'm sure. As Washington and Campbell see more snaps, their understanding of the defense and what an opposing offense is trying to do will only increase. With similar development from Pipkins and Richard Ash (maybe), the coaching staff will be looking toward the future with the defensive tackles.

Progress Report: The offense

I watched the first half of the Illinois game yesterday and one thing became clear: there wasn't much that happened schematically in the game. Michigan just dominated Illinois at every position. The only new offensive play Al Borges rolled out was the counter-draw that we saw last year, and the defense spent much of the game run blitzing. In lieu of regular content this week, and because the bye week came after only four games, I'm going to spend the week doing progress reports for the offense, defense, and coaching staff. First, the offense.

Quarterbacks

Grade: A-

Going into the season, we all knew what Michigan was getting from its quarterbacks: Denard is Denard, Devin Gardner was moving permanently to wide receiver, and Russell Bellomy was an unproven freshman who would get occasional snaps in garbage time or when Denard got injured. Six games later, that hasn't changed much. To wit:

Entering his third year as a starter and his senior season, if Denard hasn't already learned not to make those throws, he probably never will learn. Count on Denard to average about an interception--to 1.5--per game.

That's the pessimistic angle (the one that makes more sense in my brain) though. The other side of the coin is Denard, Heisman Contender. While I think that's possible, he's going to need to show significant mprovement over last year while playing a more difficult schedule (don't undersell this as a potential explanation for a lack of improvement from Denard). I've never seen a quarterback go from Year 1 to Year 2 under Borges/Hoke, so I'm not really sure what to expect. Early camp reports say Denard is playing extremely well, but camp reports are camp reports. Can Denard surpass his numbers from last year? Yes, but he won't come close to his breakout 2010 season, the kind of numbers he would need really lock down the Heisman.

Realistically, given the lack of wide receiver talent (about which more later this week), Denard's totals will probably remain the same while things like his yards per attempt drop as his deep jump balls increasingly fall to the turn.

For comparison, let's look at Denard's numbers from 2011, six games into 2011, and through the first six games of this season:

	Att/Comp	Comp%	Yards	YPA	TD/INT
2011	142/258	55%	2,173	8.4	20/15
2011 through 6 games	67/117	57.26%	1,130	9.7	10/9
2012	69/126	54.8%	1,101	8.7	9/8

I think it's hard to argue that Denard is anything but Denard. His stats this season are basically identical to his numbers from the same time last year. True, he didn't play Alabama in 2011, but this many similarities are not a coincidence. Despite "Denard Being Denard" being a bad thing occasionally (see: Notre Dame), Michigan is on pace to win its first Big Ten title since 2004 (!), largely because of him; take the good with the bad.

What's most impressive about Denard's passing output is the lack of wide receiver talent. Devin Funchess has emerged as a serious deep threat, and Devin Gardner is an erratic WR-convert, but otherwise, Denard is working with a bunch of slot ninjas in a non-slot ninja-friendly offense. But recently, Al Borges has changed to a quick-hit passing offense that Denard can excel at and better suits the receivers.

Though his passing stats mirror those of last year, Denard's rushing numbers are significantly improved.  He has carried the ball 101 times this season for 804 yards (8.0 YPC) and 6 TDs, a yardage mark that almost matches his total from the entirety of last year (1,176 yards, 5.3 YPC). Denard's improvement can be attributed to Borges' decision to use the inverted veer which appears indefensible.

Going Forward
Expect more of the same. Denard isn't poised to be anything that we haven't seen already. He's going to throw interceptions when he's pressured, break long runs a few times a game, and make some miraculous passes that you were certain Denard couldn't make. At this point, we should just cherish the last few games of Denard's collegiate career because Michigan is not going to see another player like him in Maize and Blue again. Next year is the Shane Morris show and a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy.

When the dust settles

Terrible Illinois 0 - Michigan 45
Preview

Joseph Tobianski | AnnArbor.com

Now that was vintage Michigan football: injure the opposing quarterback and grind an opponent to dust on defense. Illinois is terrible, but beating them that summarily is still fairly astonishing given the relative talent levels on defense. Even when michigan beat Minnesota last year--a squad in contention for the worst Big Ten team of all time--the Gophers still managed 177 total yards, good for 3.76 yards per play. Against Illinois on Saturday, Michigan's defense held the Illini to 134 yards on 2.5 yards per play. The Wolverine secondary allowed Illinois' two quarterbacks to complete only 7 of 16 passes for 29 yards. The last time Michigan's defense beat a D-I opponent that badly was probably the 2007 Notre Dame game in which they allowed the Irish only 79 yards. Defenders on that team: Terrance Taylor, Brandon Graham, Tim Jamison, Morgan Trent, Donovan Warren, Shawn Crable, Stevie Brown, and Jamar Adams, among others.

There's not much else to say about this game. Michigan beat Illinois at every position, all game. The only thing that slowed Michigan's offense was the non-injury to Denard and two drops by Michigan's receivers on passes thrown by Russell Bellomy. If those catches are made, the Denard injury probably won't even stop Michigan's offense. Fitz Toussaint didn't look great, but that's the only negative that can be taken from this game.

Despite much of the Big Ten schedule left to play including games against Nebraska, Michigan State, and Ohio State, it may be time to start considering Michigan as the best team on both sides of the ball in this conference. Though the Buckeyes just beat up on Nebraska and Indiana, they were still only able to manage 17 points against Michigan State--approximately as much as Iowa did against the Spartans. MSU's defense, meanwhile, has allowed 27 points to Indiana and 20 to a probably bad Notre Dame offense. Though I hate this kind of transitive property assumption, the performances in-conference to date point squarely at Michigan being the most well-rounded team.

With the transformation of the defense this year and last, we can be certain these aren't outlier performances. And with a healthy Denard being on the same page as Al Borges, the sky is the limit for the offense. Make no mistake the 2007 Michigan team would still beat 2012 Michigan to a pulp, but these past two years have been two huge steps to getting this program back to where it's supposed to be. Injured quarterbacks for all!

Bullets

• So maybe it's time to start panicking about Toussaint. Despite having blockers in front of him all game, he kept trying to break a run to the outside rather than taking the yards he was given and keeping Michigan ahead of the chains. I don't know why he's been so impatient this season--perhaps he's just stir crazy from early in the year--but it's becoming a problem. For the game, he managed just 62 yards on 18 carries.
• Denard completed 7 of 11 passes for 159 yards and no interceptions. Excise the 71-yard touchdown pass to Gallon and he throws 6/10 for 88 yards (8.8 YPA). Still good. One of the big changes in the last two games has been a relative dearth of deep shots. This is a good thing and the main reason Denard is playing this well. Dear Al, please continue this trend and don't freak out if Michigan gets behind in a game.
• Three of Michigan's top four tacklers: Jake Ryan (#1), Kenny Demens (#2), and Desmond Morgan (#4). You don't get to a member of the secondary (Kovacs) until eighth on that list, behind James Ross, even. Michigan's front seven is turning into something special.
• Speaking of which, Demens' interception showed the kind of anticipation and development you want to see from senior linebackers.
• Dennis Norfleet terrifies me every time he touches the ball.
• I have a standing rule: if you're a college football team taking field goals longer than 40 yards, you're going to lose that game. This is how Ohio State wins every close game, invariably forcing teams to kick 42-yard field goals (and missing) on 4th and 5. Michigan did this to Illinois in this game. They missed, because obviously they did.

Prediction Tracker
Preview:

Michigan starts scoring early and doesn't look back. Denard doesn't have nearly the rushing totals he did against Purdue, but that's offset by Fitz Toussaint having his best game of the season, finally breaking the 100-yard mark. Denard lights it up through the air though and finishes with two TDs and no interceptions. Defensively, JT Floyd has another strong game but is overshadowed by Jake Ryan who has 3 TFLs. Scheelhaase is pressured early and often and ends up throwing one arm-punt that sets Michigan up for an easy touchdown. Terrible Illinois 13 - Michigan 49

Michigan scored on their first two possessions and were basically only stopped because Denard got injured. Denard's rushing numbers weren't as high as they could have been because Michigan didn't need them to be. The same goes for his passing numbers: no need to throw the ball when everyone on Michigan's roster can find a running lane. Fitz: sadface. Jake Ryan had 3.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. Scheelhaase threw one INT but would have thrown more had Jibreel Black not broken his brain.

Next Week
Michigan State. Winning next week would go a long way to locking up the Legends division crown. It would all but knock MSU out of the running, leaving Iowa (2-0), Northwestern (2-1), and Nebraska (1-1) the only teams able to challenge for the title. I called this a 60/40 win for Michigan before the season and haven't seen anything to change that impression: Le'veon Bell is not terrifying despite what people will have you believe, Andrew Maxwell is incredibly raw, and the defense, as mentioned above, has now allowed 27 to Indiana, 20 to Notre Dame, and 19 to Iowa. It will be closer than you'd like, but Michigan should win comfortably.

Preview: Terrible Illinois 2012

---

Terrible Illinois vs. Michigan

The Big House

Kickoff 3:30 pm EST

ABC/ESPN

Forecast: High-50s, 100% chance of rain (really?)

---

Last Week
Illinois 14 - Wisconsin 31. Illinois has not won a Big Ten game in over a calendar year. In fact, the last time they won a game in the conference was October 8, 2011, when the Fighting Illini beat Indiana 41-20. Now, this doesn't have anything to do with last week despite the fact that they lost to another Big Ten team, this time, Terrible Wisconsin.

Last week's game was relatively close until the fourth quarter. The teams were tied 7-7 going into the half with Illinois' only score coming on a Nathan Scheelhaase scramble and Wisconsin scoring on a 62-yard James White screen pass. Wisconsin was doing everything in its power to prove that it's no longer 2011 until the fourth quarter when they forced two three-and-outs, allowed only a field goal, and racked up 21 points including a two-play, 59-yard touchdown drive.

Scheelhaase went 18/29 for 178 yards (6.1 YPA) with 1 TD and 1 INT. He also racked up 82 yards on 22 carries. In other words, a typical Sheelhaase day. The rest of Illinois' offense was a non-factor. Meanwhile, Wisconsin mediocreback Joel Stave was able to throw for 254 yards on only 25 attempts.

Michigan 44 - Purdue 13. Last week, Michigan looked like the Michigan everyone hoped. Denard looked like Good Denard again: 8/16 for 105 yards through the air--and the best part, no interceptions--and 235 yards on 25 carries. Fitzgerald Toussaint had a rough day, but everyone else who touched the ball for the Maize and Blue found green grass ahead of them.

The defense turned in possibly its best performance of the year, limiting Purdue to just 213 yards on 12 drives; they forced/were gifted four turnovers; the linebackers are finally getting to their run fills on time; the defensive line is getting push; and the secondary is continuing its aggressive man-to-man coverage without giving up big plays.

Offense vs. Terrible Illinois

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

BCS competition has scored no less than 31 points against Illinois in each game this year (Arizona State 45, Penn State 35, and Wisconsin 31, in addition to 52 points allowed to Louisiana Tech). Though the team ranks 38th in rushing yards per game allowed, they are 97th in pass efficiency defense; teams do not need to run the ball against the Illini because they're porous through the air.

If those numbers don't prove how pedestrian this defense is, the Illini's most dangerous defender is weakside defensive end Michael Buchanan, who has 2.5 sacks and 5 TFLs. The team's leading tackler, however is strong safety Ashante Williams. I am firmly of the belief that when your strong safety is your leading tackler, that's a bad thing (see: Jordan Kovacs 2009-2010).

No one will be happier to play Illinois than Fitz Toussaint. This will be the first time all year that Michigan plays a BCS opponent without multiple NFL draft picks in the front seven. Neither defensive tackle Akeem Spence nor Glenn Foster should be much of a problem for Michigan interior line to handle. Justin Staples and Buchanan aren't much for defensive ends, either (Illinois is 89th in the country in sacks). This will be a good barometer for Michigan's offensive line going forward.

With only five interceptions in 6 games, Illinois' secondary isn't much to fret about, but as always, generating turnovers against Michigan comes down to getting pressure on Denard (by the way, Michigan has the highest interception percentage in the country with 8.47%; the only team even close is Auburn with 8%). With a lackluster defensive line, Illinois will likely struggle to get the kind of pressure necessary to affect Denard unless they blitz a lot. With a strong bounceback game against Purdue, Denard and Borges look to be back on the same page. Though last week wasn't Denard's best performance through the air, it was more than enough to get the job done when you're averaging 9.8 YPC.

Expect a similar offensive structure this week: lots of inverted veer runs, with short passes and limited downfield shots. Borges may try to get Devin Funchess involved in the passing game a little more in this game after mostly falling off the map in the last few weeks. This can be attributed to teams actually guarding him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more routes run with Funchess as the first read.

Defense vs. Terrible Illinois

Jonathan Daniel | Getty Images North America

So Nathan Scheelhaase is still Illinois' quarterback despite all of the available evidence against him. Dude plays like Tate Forcier, except he can't throw and doesn't look to extend plays in order to pass. So, not like Tate Forcier at all, but that's who he'll remind you of. Scheelhaase has started his third year as a starter poorly. He's completing 62% of his passes but only averaging 6.34 YPA. Add in a 3/5 TD/INT ratio and you have the makings of a disappointing junior year. Caveats for playing for a new coaching staff apply, but he doesn't look like he has a breakout performance waiting in reserves.

Flanking Scheelhaase in the backfield will be a number of different players, but sophomore Donovan Young leads the team in carries with 59. Young is averaging only 3.8 YPC, but few players are doing better: freshman Josh Ferguson is averaging 4.1 YPC and Scheelhaase is averaging a career low 2.3 YPC (down a yard from 2011). This is not a good offense: 101st in total offense, 78th in passing efficiency, and 94th in rushing yards per game. The only real receiving threat on the Illinois roster is junior Ryan Lankford who is averaging 14.5 yards per catch and has 5 yards on the season, but Lankford isn't the elite-level receiver that can really threaten Michigan's secondary.

This Wolverines defense is quietly becoming elite again. It ranks 7th in passing yards allowed per game, 26th in pass efficiency defense, and 37th in scoring defense. With Mattison and Hoke capable of turning anyone over 300 lbs into a reliable+ defensive lineman, this will become a perennial occurrence. The bad news for Illinois: they rank 109th in sacks allowed this season despite having a scrambling QB and option running game. This is not a good offensive line, which Mattison will take advantage of and the defensive line should dominate.

Prediction
How does Michigan win? Come to play and don't turn the ball over. Illinois' offense is anemic, their defense has been torched by anyone resembling a decent offense, and there are no real offensive-threats/breakout players on Illinois' offense. Barring another Denarmageddon, this should be a routine game much like the Purdue win. (ps, It's a weird feeling being confident about a Big Ten game.)

How does Terrible Illinois win? Blitz. Force turnovers. Hope for a bad day from Denard. Kickoff/punt returns for TDs.

Arbitrary percentage that Michigan wins: 88.397%

Final prediction: Michigan starts scoring early and doesn't look back. Denard doesn't have nearly the rushing totals he did against Purdue, but that's offset by Fitz Toussaint having his best game of the season, finally breaking the 100-yard mark. Denard lights it up through the air though and finishes with two TDs and no interceptions. Defensively, JT Floyd has another strong game but is overshadowed by Jake Ryan who has 3 TFLs. Scheelhaase is pressured early and often and ends up throwing one arm-punt that sets Michigan up for an easy touchdown. Terrible Illinois 13 - Michigan 49